Passenger Transport: May 6, 2022

FO EV RT ER NI Y GH T

ISSUE 264 6 MAY 2022

NEWS, VIEWS AND ANALYSIS FOR A SECTOR ON THE MOVE

Make bus travel normal again - ministers urged

Confederation of Passenger Transport wants the Department for Transport to reverse powerful ‘avoid public transport’ message to rebuild patronage Department for Transport ministers are being urged to be seen using buses to remind people that “it’s a normal thing to do”.

There is concern in the bus industry that the robust ‘avoid public transport’ message from government during the pandemic is still influencing travel behaviour. Fare-paying bus users are currently 15% down on pre-pandemic levels - but the proportion of missing passengers is twice as high among older, concessionary travellers, with safety fears cited as the reason.

Speaking at last week’s ALBUM Conference in Blackpool.

Confederation of Passenger

Transport chief executive Graham Vidler said the DfT needed to act.

“They need to start putting that right,” he said. “You’ll have seen that they started putting it right in a big way for rail with the Great British Rail Sale amongst other things. They need to do the same for the bus, and it can be some quite simple things.

“We are giving DfT’s external relations department, right now

“It’s something we are going to push really, really hard” Graham Vidler

actually, this week, a bunch of ideas for where they can take ministers out, put them on buses and showcase that it’s a normal thing to do.

“That sort of thing doesn’t cost any money. That doesn’t require a call on the Treasury. It’s perfectly within the Department for Transport’s gift and it’s something we are going to push really, really hard, because I think a simple intervention like that, replayed across the media, can have a kind of subconscious impact on people who’ve just forgotten the idea of going out for a bus journey because they want to do so.”

FULL STORY: PAGES 04-05

NEWS

Are weekends key to growing patronage?

08

Latest usage data shows demand shift

TECHNICAL

Autonomous bus takes to Scottish roads

14

Project CAVForth moves forward

COMMENT

‘Want to travel? Sorry, railway closed’

16

Norman Baker on railway blockades

COMMENT

‘Don’t neglect your older customers’

18

Alex Warner says strategy is needed

BRTuk

Putting BRT in the spotlight MAY DAY Transport for London confirmed this week that the Elizabeth line will open on Tuesday, May 24. Andy Byford, Transport for London’s commissioner, said it would be a “truly historic moment for the capital and the UK”.

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25

BRTuk unveils series of free masterclasses

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CONTENTS

PASSENGER TRANSPORT PO Box 5496, Westbury BA13 9BX 020 3950 8000 editorial@passengertransport.co.uk

We need help to make bus travel normal again “Remember, what happens in Blackpool stays in Blackpool!” That’s what Blackpool Transport boss Jane Cole said last week in the Spanish Hall at the town’s historic Winter Gardens. It’s safe to assume that she was referring to the dance floor antics Robert Jack that would follow and not the thought-provoking Managing Editor discussions that had preceded on the first day of the ALBUM Conference (see more of that on pages 4-5).

I know I wasn’t the only one who felt exhilarated to see so many familiar faces again and I’m looking forward to attending a succession of events this year. This was the first one I’ve been to since Covid, and for this reason it felt a bit strange. The impact of the last two years weighs on us all. We know that it weighs on public transport users too. Many returned without any concern, but others remain hesitant - especially older people. Consciously or sub-consciously, they remember the government’s ‘avoid public transport’ instruction.

There was no talk at last week’s conference of compelling people to travel if their lifestyles have changed - often following a trend that existed before Covid. Jacob Rees-Mogg’s passive aggressive notes to civil servants feel like King Canute trying to turn the work-at-home tide. The bus industry is simply asking the government to make bus travel normal again, in the same way that it already is for the railway.

Once the nervous have been encouraged to travel again we will have a much clearer idea of what the post-Covid passenger base really is.

HAVE YOUR SAY Contact us with your news, views and opinion at: editorial@passengertransport.co.uk PASSENGER TRANSPORT editorial@passengertransport.co.uk forename.surname@ passengertransport.co.uk Telephone: 020 3950 8000 Managing Editor & Publisher Robert Jack Deputy Editor Andrew Garnett Contributing Writer Rhodri Clark Directors Chris Cheek, Andrew Garnett, Robert Jack OFFICE CONTACT DETAILS Passenger Transport Publishing Ltd PO Box 5496, Westbury BA13 9BX, UNITED KINGDOM Telephone (all enquiries): 020 3950 8000

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IN THIS ISSUE 26

PARIS SHOW EXPECTS TO ATTRACT 11,000

18

WHAT WILL BUSES LOOK LIKE IN 30 YEARS’ TIME?

22

IS WELSH BUS POLICY THE WAY FORWARD?

29

WAS RAIL FRANCHISING THE REAL PROBLEM?

The tenth edition of European Mobility Expo will be held from June 7-9 at the Paris Porte de Versailles exhibition centre; over 170 exhibitors will welcome some 11,000 visitors during the three-day event, giving professionals a chance to meet.

ORGANISATION

PAGE

ALBUM 1, 4-5 Avanti West Coast 7 Berrys Coaches 9 Blackpool Transport 4 CitySwift 10 Coach and Bus Association Cymru 6 Cresta Coaches 6 CPT (UK) 1, 4-5 Cumbria County Council 9 Diamond Bus 10 Excelbus 10 First Worcestershire 8 FlixBus 9 Go-Ahead Group 10 Johnsons 10 London Underground 7, 8 McGill’s 9 Merseyrail 8 Merseytravel 8 National Express West Midlands 8 Network Rail 7 ORR 7 Oxford Bus Company 10 Pencoed Travel 6 Rail Delivery Group 6 RMT 7 Roselyn Coaches 9 Rotala 10 ScotRail 7 Tracsis Transport Consultancy 4-5 Transdev Blazefield 8 Transport for London 1, 7 Transport for West Midlands 7 Transport Scotland 6 TSSA 7 VolkerFitzpatrick 7 West Midlands Metro 7 Worcestershire County Council 8

“I had a tough assignment at the ALBUM Conference: predict what role the bus industry will have in the UK economy in 2052,” says Chris Cheek.

“When 2052 comes I shallbe 101 years old: I look forward to discussing the outcome of the previous 30 years!”

The Welsh Government is very interested in bus services and is exploring ways of making them better to operate and better for the communities they serve, says Nick Richardson. Could the proposed changes offer a solution elsewhere?

Great Minster Grumbles: Our Whitehall insider imagines what’s going on inside the minds of the mandarins at Great Minster House, home of the DfT. Ministers extol the virtues of rail reform but will it actually make any difference to the current situation?

REGULARS NEWS ENVIRONMENT INNOVATION & TECH COMMENT GRUMBLES CAREERS DIVERSIONS

04 12 14 16 29 30 32

6 May 2022 | 03

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NEWS EXTRA ALBUM CONFERENCE

Concessionary travel - where has it gone?

Last week’s ALBUM Conference in Blackpool discussed why older people have not returned to buses and considered the industry’s future prospects There was plenty to talk about at the first major gathering of Robert Jack bus industry Managing Editor professionals in more than two years but one issue came up consistently: why are concessionary travellers failing to return to bus services?

“It’s something that we are acutely conscious of,” Graham Vidler, chief executive of the Confederation of Passenger Transport, told delegates at last week’s ALBUM Conference in Blackpool. “I look at the demand figures every morning and they show you what demand looks like compared to pre-pandemic, and overall, across the country and all groups, it’s about 80% and has been for some time. That disguises a pretty big difference between 85% or so of fare paying passengers and 70% - less in some areas - for concessionary travellers. So, it’s a big issue that needs to be dealt with.”

“It seems to me that what’s happened is discretionary travel has almost entirely stopped among that group. People are still going on the journeys they need to go on, to go shopping, to go to the doctor, to visit family, but the idea of taking a discretionary journey seems to have disappeared.”

Later in the day industry analyst Chris Cheek of Passenger Transport Monitor speculated on the reason for the absence of older passengers. “We are in a position 04 | 6 May 2022 PT264p04-05 4

where we’ve still got high infection levels and that more than anything, I think, is putting concessionary travellers like me off,” he said.

“There is still a fear of infection among elderly people, particularly those who have sheltered for two years and got away with it and now don’t want to catch it.”

Meanwhile, also addressing the event, Alex Warner, managing director of Tracsis Transport Consultancy, told bus operators that they had overlooked the needs of their older customers for too long and urged them to formulate strategies for winning them back (see pages 18-19 for more of his views on this subject).

Graham Vidler said CPT was

pressing the Department for Transport to help get older people back onto buses and reverse the damage done by the government’s strong ‘avoid public transport’ during the pandemic.

“They need to start putting that right,” he said. “You’ll have seen that they started putting it right in a big way for rail with the Great British Rail Sale amongst other things. They need to do the same for the bus, and it can be some quite simple things.

“We are giving DfT’s external relations department, right now actually, this week, a bunch of ideas for where they can take ministers out, put them on buses and showcase that it’s a normal

“We’ve still got high infection levels and that more than anything, I think, is putting concessionary travellers off” Chris Cheek, Passenger Transport Monitor

thing to do.

“That sort of thing doesn’t cost any money. That doesn’t require a call on the Treasury. It’s perfectly within the Department for Transport’s gift and it’s something we are going to push really, really hard, because I think a simple intervention like that, replayed across the media, can have a kind of subconscious impact on people who’ve just forgotten the idea of going out for a bus journey because they want to do so.”

A growth industry?

Commenting on the industry’s wider prospects, post-Covid, Vidler was optimistic. “I think I am going to say something that may seem counter-intuitive to lots of people and that’s we are in a growth industry,” he said.

“The bus industry is going to come back in the medium term. It might not feel like it at the moment when we are grappling with driver shortages and diesel prices and a lack of demand, but fundamentally when you look at the things this nation wants and needs to do over the coming decades, in particular decarbonisation, a greater role for bus particularly in urban areas is going to be absolutely fundamental ... I think when you

THE BIG QUESTION How far do you see passenger numbers recovering by October?

JANE COLE Managing director Blackpool Transport “I am talking with my Blackpool head on here. Up until a fortnight ago we’d recovered to around 75% on bus. Last weekend we got to 96%.

So I’m going to hedge my bets at around 85%.”

GRAHAM VIDLER Chief executive, CPT “90% fare paying, 75% concessionary - but I think it will be noticeably higher in those areas that were well-funded with BSIPs [Bus Service Improvement Plans] and can start to roll out some improvements towards October.”

BILL HIRON Chair, ALBUM “I’m a little bit more pessimistic ...

I am very afraid that concessionary numbers might not go much above 65%, maybe 70%.

And fare payers ... in some areas if we get higher than 80% I shall be pretty pleased.”

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04/05/2022 17:19

Don’t neglect your older customers. Page 18 look at it there are great reasons to be optimistic about the future of the bus industry, great reasons to think that over the coming decade there’s going to be huge growth across the country, here in Blackpool and everywhere else.”

Representing Britain’s small and medium-sized bus operators, Bill Hiron, chair of ALBUM and managing director of Stephensons of Essex, agreed. But he also said “a dose of reality” was needed.

“I think Graham is right,” said Hiron. “The medium and long-term future of the bus industry has to be a good one. I think the challenge, particularly outside the big urban areas, the areas that are getting the BSIP [Bus Service Improvement Plan] funding, the ZEBRA [Zero Emission Bus Regional Areas] funding, in the rural backwaters and the smaller towns, surviving long enough to benefit from that change in mindset is actually today’s problem.

“We’ve got a whole load of headwinds against us - general costs, fuel, lack of passengers, lack of bus priority - and so the real challenge for particularly smaller SMEs is not about the great things that may be with us in 10 years time, it’s about surviving the next two, three, four years. That’ll be the big challenge, I think.

“I don’t wish to seem negative, because there are lots of good things going on, but I think we need a dose of reality.”

Vidler expects fare-paying passengers to reach 90% of pre-Covid numbers by October, when emergency Covid support will end in England (see panel).

Hiron is more circumspect, claiming that in some areas he would be happy to see it rise above 80%. The pattern follows for concessionary travellers, with Vidler forecasting that 75% will have returned and Hiron 65-70%. www.passengertransport.co.uk

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Blackpool Transport hosted this year’s ALBUM Conference

Political will-power Jane Cole, managing director of this year’s conference host, Blackpool Transport, pointed out that the bus industry’s fate was not solely in its own hands.

“I think the biggest challenge we’ve got is that it’s not about getting people to want to use buses, it’s about getting people to migrate from what they are currently doing onto public transport,” she told delegates.

“And that’s not up to the bus companies. That’s got to be achieved through partnership working with local councils.

They’ve got to get really clear on what their strategies are for decarbonisation.”

Commenting later on the same subject, Graham Vidler said that the actions of politicians too often failed to match their aspirations on transitioning to net zero.

“There’s a lot of fudge on this issue at all levels of government,” he said. “Something like 90% of local authorities have declared a climate emergency. Doing something about that climate emergency requires you to remove transport emissions because they are such a big part of the overall carbon emissions package. And doing something about transport emissions means getting people out of their cars and onto bus.

“So, if you look at the work of the government’s Committee on

Climate Change, they say that in order to stay on course the government’s targets to reduce emissions to zero by 2050 you need to move something like 10% of urban car journeys to bus and other modes over the rest of this decade. That’s a huge shift and putting it into practice is going to require some very, very hard decisions locally that don’t just make buses better, but make travel by car a little bit harder and a little bit more expensive for some people some of the time. That’s something that we are going to have to help local authorities and central government face up to.”

Ending on a positive note, Bill Hiron believes that there is a genuine commitment to achieving modal shift in the 31 English counties, city regions and unitary authorities who will share £1bn to support the implementation of their BSIPs. He said: “In fairness, both CPT and ALBUM have been heavily involved in the BSIP and EP [Enhanced Partnership] process, and we can levy loads of criticism about the fact that the amount of funding promised has decreased and so what we’ve got is a bit half-baked.

But it has to be said that for those schemes that have been granted funding there has been a very clear determination by DfT, and indeed, as we understand it, Number 10, to ensure that car use is effectively made much more difficult in those schemes through bus priority and various other elements.

“So if you are looking for a glimmer of hope, you could say that, at least from the BSIP process, the government does appear to be starting to recognise that local authorities have got to be nudged very firmly in the direction of discouraging car use.”

6 May 2022 | 05

04/05/2022 17:19

NEWS ROUND-UP

Operators’ concerned by rising inflation cost Passenger transport operators across the UK have reported concerns at rising inflation and increasing fuel costs. Rhodri Clark reports INFLATION

Recent increases in inflation are starting to affect passenger transport operators across the UK, with independent bus and coach companies already suffering a 40% to 50% increase in fuel costs.

Transport Scotland said it bore the risk of rising fuel prices for ferries and trains. “Some mitigation is in place in relation to agreed rates for rail traction and fuel price hedges in the medium term,” said a spokesman.

Hedging has been protecting many operators from recent increases in diesel and electricity prices. However, smaller companies have felt the impact already, and some are struggling to continue operating tendered services at prices agreed last year.

The issue was raised in the Welsh Senedd last week by Luke Fletcher MS, who said Pencoed Travel and Cresta Coaches had raised concerns. “Since their contracts were originally tendered, in June of last year, Pencoed Travel’s fuel costs, for example, have risen by 40%.

“Both Cresta Coaches and Pencoed Travel have contacted Bridgend County Borough Council, requesting help with covering these rapidly increasing costs, but to no avail,” he said.

“BCBC stated that they are waiting for Welsh Government advice before they seek to resolve the issue, as they believe that this is a matter for Welsh Government and not them. However, I am 06 | 6 May 2022 PT264p06-07 6

Hedging has been protecting many operators from recent fuel price increases

aware of other local authorities that are offering a resolution.”

Bev Fowles, of the Coach and Bus Association Cymru, said: “Fuel is 14% of our costs.

Effectively, we need an uplift of about 7% to 8%.”

Contracts for tendered services made provision for an annual uplift in prices to cover inflation, but inflation had taken off since the last uplift in August, he said.

“We’re saying to authorities that we need an extraordinary increase because it’s an emergency. One of our two biggest costs in operating buses and coaches has gone up by

“Fuel is 14% of our costs. Effectively, we need an uplift of about 7% to 8%” Bev Fowles

50%, so you’ve got to come to the table with something.”

One authority which had rejected the request found that operators declined to sign any of the new contracts for 22 home to school services which were awarded in January, said Fowles.

The contracts had to be signed and returned by the winning bidders in February, but by then the increasing fuel prices and the council’s refusal of a mid-year uplift had destroyed operators’ confidence. The council was now having to extend existing contracts and would have to repeat the tendering exercise.

Network Rail’s Traction Decarbonisation Network Strategy outlines how energy consumption as well as carbon emissions could be reduced, and is feeding into the wider Whole Industry Strategic Plan. The increase in energy costs is a more

immediate issue, however, and the Rail Delivery Group said train operators were adopting measures such as reducing diesel engine idling, using driver assistance systems and increasing the deployment of bi-mode trains.

“Like every sector, the railway is affected by rising costs and we need to work to create a sustainable future,” said an RDG spokeswoman. “Train companies are investing in new bi-mode, hydrogen and battery powered trains and have proposed a longterm programme of electrification to improve performance and make our green way of travelling even greener.”

Train operators collectively are the biggest single consumer of electricity in the UK. They club together to buy electricity in bulk, saving money and insulating themselves, to an extent, from short-term fluctuations in prices.

The silver lining to the cloud is that hedging has protected many passenger transport operators while their main competitor, the private car, has been hit with large increases in petrol and diesel prices - potentially encouraging some people to reduce their car mileage and make more use of public transport.

Translink, which operates Northern Ireland’s trains and buses, told Passenger Transport: “We manage our fuel costs efficiently and effectively through buying our fuel on a contract basis over the long term.

“This protects us against shortterm volatility in the market and, with no increase in fares since April 2019, makes public transport even better value during these times of high fuel costs.

“Whilst inflationary cost pressures remain a concern for the future, public transport has a key role to play in Northern Ireland’s green economic recovery.” www.passengertransport.co.uk

04/05/2022 16:29

Want to travel?

Sorry, railway closed. Page 16

Rail unions threaten nationwide action 40,000 staff ballot could see strike action start in June INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS

The RMT union has launched a ballot of more than 40,000 rail members on whether their union should stage a national strike. It could be potentially the biggest rail strike in a generation.

There is further industrial unrest elsewhere. The TSSA union is not ruling out nationwide action after failing to secure guarantees on job security, pay and the protection of terms and conditions for its rail members.

In a separate move, the Unite union is balloting more than 1,500 members at Transport for London and London Underground in a dispute over pensions.

The RMT’s ballot involves the

members at Network Rail and 15 train operators. It will run until May 24 and the union says that if the vote is in favour of strike action then disruption could start within weeks.

The dispute centres on job losses at the infrastructure controller, where around 2,500 jobs will go from maintenance roles as part of a move to cut costs.

RMT general secretary Mick Lynch said: “Removing 2,500 safety-critical jobs from Network Rail will spell disaster for the public, make accidents more likely

“A national rail strike will bring the country to a standstill”

NEW LOOK FOR PENDOLINO FLEET ROLLING STOCK

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SIGNALLING RETHINK Network Rail and the ORR are working together to encourage greater competition among suppliers of signalling equipment in order to reduce costs. The new approach will see materially different European Train Control System contracts introduced in Control Period 7 which starts in 2024. They will improve the attractiveness of contracts to suppliers by lowering barriers and investment required to enter the market. The move follows an ORR study published last November that found the market is worth between £800m-900m each year.

SCOTRAIL’S 50% OFF ScotRail has launched a halfprice seat sale offering 50% off all weekday off-peak services between any two stations in Scotland in a bid to encourage a return to rail travel. The offer had been due to take place in January but was postponed due to the rapid rise in Omicron Covid-19 cases in Scotland.

STATION CONTRACT AWARD Transport for West Midlands has chosen VolkerFitzpatrick to build three stations on the restored Camp Hill line between Kings Norton and Birmingham New Street. The West Midlands Combined Authority is providing £36m towards the cost of the project, with £20m coming from the Department for Transport and the remaining £5m from Birmingham City Council.

First train re-enters service after upgrade The first fully refurbished Avanti West Coast Pendolino has entered service marking the start of a £117m upgrade programme.

The work includes the conversion of one First Class carriage on each train to Standard Class, the introduction of a new onboard cafe bar to replace the previous shop, improved lighting and carpets, new passenger information screens, refurbished toilets, and new seating.

“The refurbished Pendolinos look and feel like new trains,” said Phil Whittingham, Avanti West Coast managing director.

and will increase the possibility of trains flying off the tracks.”

He added that despite praise for keeping services moving throughout the pandemic, the industry had “refused to keep staff pay in line with inflation and soaring living costs”.

Lynch continued: “As a result, thousands of railway workers have seen their living standards plummet and have run out of patience. The way for trade unions to effectively take on the cost-of-living crisis is to stand up for their members at work and take industrial action when employers are not moved by the force of reasoned argument.

“A national rail strike will bring the country to a standstill, but our members’ livelihoods and passenger safety are our priorities.”

IN BRIEF

The work includes new seats and passenger information screens

METRO SETS RESTART DATE West Midlands Metro services are expected to resume by the end of this month following the completion of remedial works to the network’s fleet of CAF trams.

6 May 2022 | 07

04/05/2022 16:29

NEWS ROUND-UP

Are weekends key to patronage recovery?

Some Transdev routes exceeding 2019 patronage figures PATRONAGE

New figures from the Department for Transport suggest public transport patronage is slowly recovering from Covid-19 in Great Britain, but patronage at weekends is exceeding that of weekdays in many cases.

The latest daily figures from late April suggest rail patronage over the long Easter weekend was between around 84% of that experienced in early March 2020 before the first Covid-19 national lockdown. More recently the figures reported are routinely in the mid to late-seventies.

London Underground has also reported patronage of around 65% on weekdays, but it is far

ROUTE 144 CUT HITS HEADLINES

Radio 4’s PM programme laments loss of service BUS CUTS

First Worcestershire’s decision to cut a direct bus service between Worcester, Bromsgrove and Birmingham, a route which has operated since 1914, was in the spotlight last week.

The operator withdrew the portion of the route between Bromsgrove and Birmingham city centre at the end of last month. It blamed the decision on a rapid decline in patronage since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, changes in employment and a need to “realign our bus network in accordance with how and when people are travelling 08 | 6 May 2022 PT264p08-09 8

higher at weekends with figures in the mid to late-eighties.

Regional bus services outside London also follow this trend and are now regularly reporting patronage in the high eighties at weekends, up from figures in the early seventies on weekdays.

This is also true in London where patronage is generally around the 70% on weekdays but at the mid Transdev’s ‘Hotline’ has reported patronage better than 2019

across the working week and at weekends”.

As an interim solution, Worcestershire County Council announced National Express West Midlands will operate a new service between Bromsgrove, Catshill, Rubery and Longbridge to replace withdrawn sections of the route for at least the next six months.

But the withdrawal of the route was the focus of a feature on BBC Radio 4’s PM programme last week.

Presenter Evan Davies said the withdrawal of the route told a tale about “the sorry state of the bus outside London”.

Appearing on the programme, Amelia Womack, deputy leader of the Green Party, said buses were important for connectivity between communities.

to late 80% mark at weekends.

In Merseyside the transport network there appears to be bouncing back, according to Merseytravel. It revealed last week that patronage on the Merseyrail network is around 90% of pre-pandemic levels with a 15-minute service due to return this month. There is also good news on the region’s bus network, where the number of journeys has neared 90% of pre-Covid levels on some days.

Meanwhile, Alex Hornby, chief executive of Harrogate-based bus operator Transdev Blazefield provided Passenger Transport with a comprehensive picture of how his business is recovering.

He revealed overall passenger recovery has reached 94%, but this figure was higher on some routes that had benefitted from

recent investment and relaunch.

In particular, the ‘Hotline’ interurban service between Preston and Burnley has reported 101% of 2019’s patronage figures in recent weeks, although it has been routinely over 95% since February.

The ‘Witchway’ service between Burnley and Manchester has patronage of 87% and the A ‘ ireline’ between Leeds and Keighley 99%.

Other high performing services reported by Hornby are the ‘Dalesway’ (Skipton-Keighley) - 97%; and two routes acquired with the recent purchase of Arriva’s Yorkshire Tiger business.

These are ‘Denby Darts’ (Huddersfield to Denby Dale) 95%; and ‘Holmfirth Explorer’ (Wakefield to Holmfirth) 85%.

Other figures included ‘Coastliner’ from Leeds to the Yorkshire coast at 89% and Route 72 between Skipton and Grassington at 109%, perhaps influenced by the revived All Creatures Great and Small TV series which is filmed in the village of Grassington.

“What we’re seeing at the moment is that instead of the investment that’s been so desperately needed, even Boris Johnson said we need to invest more into bus services, we’re seeing a decimation of them.”

She pointed to the experience in London and its integrated transport network overseen by Transport for London, which ran at odds with the situation outside the capital.

“Yes, public transport is working in London, but what I’d prefer is if it worked elsewhere,” Womack added.

“It’s meant to be a bus service, it’s meant to be a service to the community,” she continued. “You won’t always have peak times for that use. It needs to be there… for those people who need to get to the hospital, for those people who are working different hours.

“It’s frustrating to see that it has been cited that more people are working from home - that’s a real generalisation about how people do work as if everyone is an office worker. There will be peaks and troughs at times, but that doesn’t mean it’s not a vital service for the people who use it.”

Womack said the greenest option should always be the easiest and cheapest option to use, adding that many rural communities had been forced to be dependent on their cars because of the failure of bus services “that haven’t been working for many years”.

“They feel like they’ve been forced to use their car more often,” she added. “With services like this going it only forces more people into their cars more often.” www.passengertransport.co.uk

04/05/2022 16:29

What will buses look like in 30 years’ time? Page 20

Shapps: BSIPs are not the ‘be-all and end-all’ Transport secretary says bus improvements can be ‘non-financial’ FUNDING

Transport secretary Grant Shapps has dismissed criticism over Bus Service Improvement Plan (BSIP) funding allocations by saying that two-thirds of England’s bus passengers will see new investment as a result of government funding.

Responding to a question at an evidence session of the parliamentary Transport Select Committee from member Gavin Newlands, the MP for Paisley and Renfrewshire North and the Westminster SNP spokesperson on transport matters, regarding the BSIP allocations, Shapps said the funding was not the “be-all and end-all” to improve buses.

“There are other ways in which communities are improving their areas for buses, including things like levelling-up funds,” he said.

“BSIPs are not just about money.

There are lots of things that areas are able to do through their BSIPs that are non-financial but will make a dramatic difference. It might be to do with the way that the timetables are being operated for connectivity with other types of transport. Money is part of it.”

He said the government was also putting money into funding “different types of on-demand buses” and there was also “a very good programme in Cornwall… and other programmes on how to improve things like Enhanced Partnerships”. “The totality of this is very large indeed. Of course, we never rule out doing more in the future,” Shapps added. www.passengertransport.co.uk

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Shapps: ‘Chancellor has put in billions to support buses’

Newlands highlighted the government had pledged 4,000 new zero emission buses in early 2020, but the ZEBRA scheme that subsequently emerged in 2021 only included funding for around 500 buses.

But Shapps said the government would get 4,000 buses either on the road or ordered by the end of the current parliament, highlighting ambitious schemes in Coventry and the West Midlands to introduce large fleets of zero emission buses.

“It will be more like 5,000 across the country, so we are on track to deliver on zero emission buses,” he added.

But Newlands highlighted the commitment for 4,000 buses only represented around a tenth of England’s bus fleet. He questioned whether the government was

“The prime minister loves buses, as I think is widely known”

being sufficiently ambitious given Scotland has committed to decarbonising half of its bus fleet, over the same period.

“I think this country is making great strides in moving to zero in all sorts of areas,” Shapps responded. “I am very ambitious to push this hard. The prime minister loves buses, as I think is widely known. He is very keen for that to happen as well.”

Newlands questioned Shapps on whether the lack of firm funding for zero emission buses indicated a lack of commitment from the Treasury. He asked the transport secretary whether the arguments his department had made in a bid to secure funding had been sufficiently robust, but Shapps defended the government’s record.

“The chancellor has put in billions to support it,” he said.

“Let’s be clear: buses would not have been able to continue running if the chancellor had not put in that £2.5bn-plus of support, with zero fare rises. We will continue to pay money.”

CUMBRIA MP’S BSIP FRUSTRATION Neil Hudson calls for action over BSIP failure FUNDING

Frustration at a lack of funding for Cumbria County Council’s Bus Service Improvement Plan saw Penrith and The Border MP Neil Hudson demand action from prime minister Boris Johnson in the House of Commons late last month.

Hudson said challenges with rural transport remain some of the greatest obstacles facing his constituents and that he was pleased Cumbria received £1.5m to enhance provision as part of the Rural Mobility Fund.

“I am sure my right hon. Friend can imagine my disappointment this month, however, when Cumbria was allocated no funding from the latest tranche of bus funding,” Hudson added. “Can the prime minister reassure my constituents that Cumbria can look forward to future funding schemes to improve our vital rural bus services?”

In response, Johnson said he will ensure a meeting is convened with the relevant minister.

IN BRIEF FLIXBUS EXPANSION FlixBus has announced new routes as a result of an expansion of existing agreements with partner operators. In the south west of England FlixBus has strengthened its partnership with Berrys Coaches and Roselyn Coaches to launch a new route from Plymouth to London via Exeter, Taunton and Bridgwater.

Meanwhile, FlixBus and McGill’s launched a new route between Manchester and Glasgow via Preston and Lancaster. Both new routes commenced on April 28.

6 May 2022 | 09

04/05/2022 16:29

NEWS ROUND-UP

Group emerging from ‘challenging period’ Go-Ahead raises profit expectations as group reports resilient results FINANCIALS

Reduced losses at its international rail operations, resilient results from its bus businesses in London and overseas, plus steadily rising patronage at its regional UK bus operations have seen Go-Ahead raise its profit expectations.

The London-based transport group revealed underlying operating profits of £42.6m for the six months to January 1. This was down 24.5% on a year earlier, but 17.7% higher on a like-for-like basis and with one-off boosts from a year earlier stripped out.

Go-Ahead said that with the group reporting robust trading in the second half of the year to date, it now expects full-year profits to come in ahead of previous forecasts.

Chief executive Christian Schreyer said the group had emerged from “a challenging period” with a new management team, a refreshed strategy, resilient operations and ambition for future growth.

“As I look to the future and our plans for the business, I have full confidence in our local teams to take the group forward as we execute on our new strategy - ‘The Next Billion Journeys’ - which I set out earlier this month following the conclusion of my business review,” he added.

DELOITTE AUDIT PROBE The Financial Reporting Council has announced it is to investigate Deloitte LLP’s audit of Go-Ahead Group. The probe covers the financial statements for the 2016 to 2021 financial years and Deloitte says it will “co-operate fully” with the investigation.

At the regional bus business passenger numbers gradually increased over the first half of the year, reaching around 80% of pre-pandemic levels in November 2021 before the emergence of the Omicron Covid-19 variant. This saw a temporary reduction in journey numbers which has since reversed, with passenger volumes currently above 80% of prepandemic levels.

In the capital, the group has completed the purchase of neighbouring land to expand its River Road bus garage in East London. Meanwhile, talks with Singapore’s Land Transport Authority continue regarding an extension of the group’s bus contract there.

Also in overseas markets, Go-Ahead says it has identified France, Australia and Sweden as key targets for further expansion and the group is currently reviewing opportunities.

COACH FIRM QUITS BUS WORK

Johnsons sells Excelbus operation to Rotala ACQUISITIONS

BLENHEIM BY BUS Blenheim Palace has partnered with Oxford Bus Company to launch a free shuttle service connecting the country house with Hanborough railway station at weekends. The launch of the service forms part of a major drive by Blenheim Palace to become carbon neutral by 2027.

10 | 6 May 2022 PT264p10-11 10

Henley-in-Arden-based coach operator Johnsons has announced the sale of its Excelbus-branded bus operation to Rotala subsidiary Diamond Bus. The move ends the firm’s involvement in local bus services after 23 years.

The company has a small network of services centred on Stratfordupon-Avon with links to Banbury, Moreton-in-Marsh and Birmingham.

The company also operates the Stratford-upon-Avon park and ride

HOW IS THE SECTOR DOING?

State of UK Public Transport survey returns YOUR VIEWS

In 2021 Passenger Transport asked public transport professionals how they felt the industry had coped with the enormous challenges and uncertainty of Covid-19.

We also asked for their thoughts on what recovery would look like as the pandemic shifted from ‘crisis’ to ‘recovery’. The comments, thoughts and insights were fantastic and now we want to find out how attitudes have shifted as society has reopened and the pandemic receded.

Once again we have teamed up with data specialists CitySwift to undertake this survey. We know you are busy people, so we have designed it so that should only take five minutes to complete. Your participation in this exercise will help us to assess the mood of the passenger transport community and the findings will be shared by Passenger Transport in due course.

To participate visit bit.ly/3rQj7QU. The deadline for responses is midday on Friday, May 13 2022.

service as well as other routes that link Worcester with Birmingham via Redditch and Coventry with Solihull.

The deal with Rotala includes 18 buses and Johnsons says “other assets” are included in the sale. The deal is expected to be concluded on May 29 and the purchase includes Johnsons commercial and tendered services. Most Excelbus drivers and some operating staff will join Rotala, working from Diamond Bus’s Redditch depot.

Johnsons operations director Peter Johnson said the challenges of switching to zero emission vehicles amongst other issues meant the company had decided to focus on its core coaching activities. www.passengertransport.co.uk

04/05/2022 17:40

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04/05/2022 17:40

ENVIRONMENT ZERO EMISSION BUSES

Electric buses ‘improve health of residents’ Research examined impact of full-electric route in Gothenburg HEALTH

Residents living alongside a bus route in Gothenburg report feeling better since it was converted to full electric buses.

Sleep disturbances, fatigue and feeling down have decreased, as well as noise levels. This is according to a study conducted by the University of Gothenburg and initiated by ElectriCity, of which Volvo Group is a partner.

“It is very positive that we now have research that shows that electric buses not only reduce noise levels, but also make people feel better. This knowledge provides new opportunities for better urban planning and increased flexibility for public transport in cities,” said Marie Carlsson, city mobility director at Volvo Buses.

EQUIPMAKE SHOWCASES BUS REPOWER TECH

Electric chassis applied to Volvo B5LH double decker CONVERSION

Electrification specialist Equipmake showcased its latest pure electric bus technology at the ALBUM Conference in Blackpool, in the shape of a repowered double decker.

Unveiled for the first time, the fully electric Volvo B5LH debuted the company’s repower solution, which has been developed at Equipmake’s base in Norfolk and upgrades existing hybrid and diesel buses with 12 | 6 May 2022 PT264p12-13 12

Fully electric Volvo single deck buses were introduced to Gothenburg’s Route 60 in 2019.

Noise levels from the previous buses were clearly noticeable, especially on uphill slopes, and the route is hilly in places.

Earlier research has shown that low-frequency noise caused disturbances in homes in the area.

“The problem with lowfrequency noise is that it more easily gets into homes and even small increases can be clearly

heard,” explained Kerstin Persson Waye, professor of environmental medicine at the Sahlgrenska Academy at the University of Gothenburg, who led the study.

In the study, questionnaires were sent out to randomly selected residents. Half lived along the bus route, while the rest lived some distance away and formed a reference group. The residents answered questions both before and after the transition to electric buses. In parallel, sound

Gothenburg’s route 60 went full-electric in 2019

battery drivetrains.

Equipmake’s repower technology programme involves an inspection of each bus to check its adaptability to the unique, scalable modular electric chassis. Once its suitability is verified, the process itself is quick, with up to five repowers a week being completed, ensuring a working bus is kept off the road for as short a time as possible.

Each repower is tailored to specific operator requirements, with service routes simulated to ensure the correct battery power level is selected for optimum performance and efficiency, and guaranteed driving ranges of 150 to 250 miles achievable.

This is more than sufficient for a

complete duty cycle, allowing buses to be recharged overnight.

As well as bringing environmental benefits, Equipmake’s repower programme makes sense from a cost perspective, with each conversion coming in at less than half the price

The repowered Volvo B5LH

measurements were recorded inside several homes.

The results showed clear differences in terms of the actual noise levels, what residents experienced and how they were affected. The number of respondents who noticed noise from buses decreased from 75% to 39%. Those that reported being disturbed to a very high degree fell from 26% to 5%.

Differences in the reported health effects were also clear.

Respondents who felt tired once or twice a week fell from 49% to 39%, down to the same level as the reference group. Respondents who felt down decreased from 22% to 17%. Significantly fewer people reported feeling very sleepy during the day.

“Those who lived near the bus line felt much better. Although we cannot say with certainty that these results reflect the entire population, we believe that they are relevant for residential areas where bus traffic passes close by. If traffic in other urban environments also becomes quieter, this will improve public health,” said Persson Waye.

of a new electric bus. And with most buses expected to remain in service for 14 years or beyond, operators can still make significant efficiencies by repowering a bus halfway through its working life.

Equipmake managing director Ian Foley said: “We know there is a clear appetite for the technology, with strong demand from operators, which is leading to the expansion of our facilities in Norfolk. Alongside recent changes to BSOG [Bus Service Operators Grant], we believe interest will only increase and, next to the associated financial benefits of a repowered bus, such vehicles can very quickly bring cleaner air to every town and city in the UK.” www.passengertransport.co.uk

04/05/2022 16:35

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04/05/2022 16:35

INNOVATION & TECHNOLOGY

Autonomous bus takes to the roads of Scotland UK’s first full-sized autonomous bus begins on-road tests AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES

The UK’s first full-sized autonomous bus took to the roads of Scotland for the first time last week as live testing began for Project CAVForth.

Bus operator Stagecoach, technology firm Fusion Processing, bus builder Alexander Dennis and Transport Scotland, will jointly carry out on-road testing of the autonomous bus (without passengers) over two weeks in preparation for the launch of the CAVForth pilot service in late summer.

The Project CAVForth pilot, which is jointly funded by the UK Government’s Centre for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CCAV) will see five single-deck autonomous buses operating at SAE Level 4 over the Forth Road Bridge between Ferrytoll Park and Ride in Fife

‘DIGITAL TWIN’ TRIAL AT HS1 LTD

Project reduces emissions and could cut train delays AUGMENTED REALITY

HS1 Ltd has completed the UK’s first 5G-enabled ‘augmented reality digital twin’ trial on the UK railways, showcasing how the technology can be used to reduce emissions, cut train delays and make the experience of passengers using the iconic St Pancras International station even more hassle free.

HS1 Ltd, which owns and operates the UK’s only high-speed railway, 14 | 6 May 2022 PT264p14-15 14

and the Edinburgh Park Train and Tram interchange. The buses are fitted with Fusion Processing’s ground-breaking sensor and control technology, CAVstar, that enables them to run on preselected roads without the safety driver having to intervene or take control. The buses will provide a service capable of carrying up to 36 passengers over the 14 miles across the bridge, with capacity for over 10,000 passengers a week.

The on-road testing follows successful depot-based trials, track testing and virtual simulation where the buses have been put through their paces to fine tune the autonomous drive systems.

To help support the delivery of Project CAVForth, Transport Scotland recently opened a section of Actively Managed Hard Shoulder for all buses on the M8 eastbound. It will help to reduce journey times and improve

Five single-deck autonomous buses will operate at SAE Level 4 over the Forth Road Bridge

developed a digital representation of the high speed network including rail track, lifts, elevators and other parts of the line and stations during the nine-month project funded by Innovate UK. Rail staff used ‘Hololens 2’ headsets to examine in close detail every facet of the railway, gaining a real-time understanding of how all elements were operating at any given time.

This remote condition monitoring system enabled them to predict more effectively what maintenance work was needed on HS1’s physical infrastructure, including at St Pancras International.

journey time reliability for all buses of 24 seats or more on the approach to Edinburgh.

As part of project, around 500 members of the public helped with the implementation of the new autonomous bus service, providing feedback on what would make them feel comfortable and confident in travelling. Built on the feedback received, the partners have developed a vision for the new autonomous vehicles, which includes ensuring future autonomous bus services still have a member of staff on board.

In a further positive step forward in the project, over 20 specially trained ‘Autonomous Bus Professionals’ are soon to be recruited by Stagecoach from across its East Scotland business.

When the service goes live, these experienced bus drivers will monitor the autonomous system alongside a bus ‘Captain’ who will move around the saloon, talking to passengers about the service and answering any questions they may have, demonstrating what a future service might feel like when the staff member is able to leave the cab while the computer does the driving.

Digital twin technology

www.passengertransport.co.uk

04/05/2022 16:37

Leicester launches multi-operator capping Contactless scheme is said to be first of its kind in the UK TICKETING

Leicester City Council, bus operators and technology specialists from Littlepay and Ticketer have teamed up to deliver a seamless contactless payment platform for passengers to pay for their bus travel.

Tap On/Tap Off contactless ticketing was launched in Leicester by First Bus, Arriva and Centrebus in 2021 and has been extremely popular with customers.

The next step was to develop a contactless multi-operator ticket version that provided bus users with total flexibility to travel across multiple operators’ services.

This was achieved in March and is the first of its kind in the UK. The newly launched contactless open loop capping scheme is

CUBIC WINS LEAP CONTRACT Firm will run, maintain, and enhance Leap system TICKETING

Cubic Transportation Systems has been awarded a contract by Ireland’s National Transport Authority (NTA) to be the operations service provider for the transport authority’s TFI Leap Card system.

Cubic will operate, maintain, and enhance the current Leap system to align with the NTA’s future transport goals. The operational services to be provided consist of IT operations; contact centre services; card management; payment processing; financial and reporting services; and www.passengertransport.co.uk

PT264p14-15 15

expected to be accessible to 99% of all customer journeys made in the flexi zone, with a daily (£5) and weekly option (£19.50).

Customers can check charges by accessing the portal available on the Leicester Buses website.

Funding was awarded through the Department for Transport’s ‘Transforming Cities fund’ to purchase and install new Tap Out readers from Ticketer. The new hardware works in conjunction

Tap Out reader

working to establish an extensive retail network through An Post.

“With the ongoing Leap expansion throughout Ireland and the introduction of additional bus operators, there will be significant change to Leap operations within the next five to ten years,” said David Wear, general manager of EMEA, Cubic Transportation Systems.

“Our team has the proven transport experience and perspectives to actively adapt to the changes in the transport landscape, and we are confident in our ability to deliver the highest quality service.”

Cubic’s delivery team includes a mix of new partners, such as An Post, Microsoft and EasyTrip, as well as incumbent suppliers, including

with the technology already in place to process, analyse and charge for a bus journey.

Ticketer provides the on-vehicle ticketing equipment, including the electronic ticketing machines and Tap Out readers, as well as the fares repository used to indicate tap amount.

Littlepay’s back-office aggregates card taps received by Ticketer readers, applies fare caps set by individual operators, and delivers a broker service to manage multioperator caps layered over all three operators’ fare structures.

Littlepay provides a secure merchant portal to each bus company, enabling them to view all passenger taps that contribute toward triggering a multi-operator cap. In addition, transaction and settlement reports provide the information necessary to ensure each bus company receives the correct share of fare revenue.

Payzone and Paragon ID. Cubic’s solution will streamline interfaces and enable a low-friction transition as demonstrated in transition programmes for Transport for London, Metropolitan Transportation Commission in the San Francisco Bay Area, and the Chicago Transportation Authority.

To date, over five million smart cards have been issued through the Leap system with over 167 million journeys served by Irish Rail, Dublin Bus, Luas, Go Ahead Ireland, Bus Éireann and a number of licensed private bus operators.

Cubic started its work with the NTA in 2019 when it was awarded a contract to deliver a scalable mobile ticketing system for Ireland.

IN BRIEF TfW WORKS WITH PASSENGER UK public transport technology provider Passenger has announced a major new partnership with Transport for Wales as it prepares to unveil a new, multilingual app and website for its TrawsCymru long distance bus network.

TrawsCymru will launch on Passenger’s customer experience platform and utilise its journey planning, bus timetables and live vehicle tracking capabilities. Mobile app ticketing, complemented by e-ticketing on the website, will also help to provide a step change in digital access to the TrawsCymru services.

‘PASSENGER FLOW’ TECH HS1 Ltd has announced a three-year contract with OpenSpace Group Ltd to use ground-breaking technology that pin-points and counts every person in St Pancras International and other stations to improve passenger flows and experience on the railway.

The technology will allow HS1 Ltd staff to see, in real-time, a visual representation of where all people are in HS1 stations at any given time. By being able to see where all people are in the station, staff will be better able to deal with bottlenecks or potential safety issues caused by overcrowding.

SQUAREPEG USING CREWPLAN Leeds-based Squarepeg Buses has strengthened its partnership with Omnibus to maximise efficiency and reduce costs around crew scheduling. The independent operator has adopted CrewPLAN, a leading automatic crew scheduling software solution, to produce efficient and compliant drivers’ duty rosters.

6 May 2022 | 15

04/05/2022 16:37

COMMENT RAIL BLOCKADES

NORMAN BAKER

Want to travel?

Sorry, railway closed Blockades to enable railway engineering works are commonplace.

Is it surprising that many reach for the car keys at weekends?

Saturday April 16, was a great day for the beleaguered coach industry. The FA Cup semi-final between Liverpool and Manchester City saw the biggest single movement ever of people by coach to Wembley.

While the efficiency and readiness of the coach industry will doubtless have played a part, and they certainly stepped up to the plate, the real reason was that on the day the top two clubs in England were playing a high profile knock-out game in the country’s top competition, Network Rail’s planned engineering works meant there were no trains to carry fans of either team from the northwest to London. That’s a lot of lost passenger traffic to the railway and an episode that will have done nothing to build confidence in, or loyalty to, rail services.

Nor will the announcement I heard last week over the tannoy at my local station, Lewes, which, I suppose in an attempt to be helpful, breezily stated that “engineering works take place most weekends and on evenings during the week”.

Lewes itself has had two nine-day blockades in recent months, as well as numerous works which have shut the railway on other weekends. You do have to ask why all these works could not be done at the same time.

The use of long blockade periods, when no trains run for days, has been adopted by Network Rail, and in theory is a sensible idea.

It should allow a big bang approach when everything from points replacement to the 16 | 6 May 2022 PT264p16-17 16

cutting back of lineside vegetation can be done together. It also allows more intensive working and must be more cost effective, and indeed less disruptive, than a continual series of short possessions.

The trouble is that the blockades do not seem to have replaced the short possessions, but merely added to them, or at least that is the perception.

Long-suffering train users have a right to ask whether all these possessions are really necessary. I do not mean in terms of the work being carried out - we can assume, I hope, that the works identified really do have to be undertaken - but in terms of the time allocated, the methods used, and the efficiency of the works.

We might also ask whether trains are always run when track is available. A couple of years back, exasperated by the sheer number of possessions affecting Lewes, I submitted a Freedom of Information request to Network Rail to establish the works undertaken, and married this against the use of rail replacement buses. What this exercise showed was that often when track was available from Lewes to Haywards Heath, it was decided, presumably

by Southern in this case, not to use it, but to

“Just who has an incentive to reduce the number and length of possessions?”

bus people all the way from Lewes to Three Bridges. That indeed was also the case with the most recent nine-day blockade where the major work was to replace a junction north of Haywards Heath station. There is no reason, as far as I can see, why a shuttle service could not have run between Lewes and Haywards Heath.

Would it be cynical of me to observe that replacement buses are often owned by the same company that operates the train?

Just who has an incentive to reduce the number and length of possessions? Not Network Rail, who in the main still see themselves as an infrastructure organisation divorced from the passenger. And not the TOCs who get compensation from Network Rail and who can often run their buses as a bonus.

It is difficult to escape the conclusion that the operation of engineering works is planned for the convenience of the railway, rather than the convenience of passengers.

To make matters worse, all too often there is a disconnect between the train and the connecting rail replacement bus. The railway regards the replacement buses as not its business, and the bus drivers are even less interested in the train passengers. Apart from anything else, this means that tickets are never checked on the bus, resulting in an unnecessary loss of fare income.

Alex Warner, in a recent edition of Passenger Transport (PT253), set out a helpful 10-point plan to make rail replacement less painful. It would be good to see his ideas taken up.

One problem is that the railway suffers from a lack of agility. To mix transport metaphors, it turns like an oil tanker rather than a speedboat. Lines are fixed in the ground, rolling stock lasts for years, union agreements take a long time to negotiate and even longer to change. And engineering works are planned a long time in advance and cannot easily be altered at short notice. The works on the West Coast Main Line on April 16 will have been planned long before we knew that Man City would be playing Liverpool at Wembley in the FA Cup semi-final.

Yet the world does change, sometimes quickly. Covid reduced at its worst point passenger numbers to a trickle. The postCovid world for the railway looks very different. www.passengertransport.co.uk

04/05/2022 16:39

Commuter traffic is markedly down, and may well stay that way, as working from home has now become ingrained for many white collar workers who find it more enjoyable, cheaper and perhaps even more productive. It is unlikely that petulant notes left on the desks of civil servants by Jacob Rees-Mogg will do much to change that.

By contrast, leisure travel on rail is booming, and in some cases running at levels in excess of where it was pre-Covid. The weekend trains I have been on recently were packed out, and of course it is weekends when engineering works are most common. Shutting the railway on a Sunday may have made little difference in 1983.

It certainly does now. The railway needs all the passengers it can get and here is the primary growth market being given the message that it is pot luck if your weekend train is running or not. Is it surprising that many reach for the car keys at weekends without even bothering to check if trains are running?

The use of blockades is indeed one answer, if the planners can make sure that the period of possession is used to maximum effect and not the prelude to weeks of further weekend closures. And in the new world of leisure travel growth, perhaps it is time to consider www.passengertransport.co.uk

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“Shutting the railway on a Sunday may have made little difference in 1983.

It certainly does now” using different days in the week. What about Mondays, with commuter traffic now concentrated Tuesday to Thursday, and Fridays a day to get away for the weekend?

But the real gain will come from better use of the time taken for a possession. About 10 years ago when I was a minister, there was uproar when engineering works over the Christmas and New Year period, I think from memory affecting Liverpool Street, ran over into the first few days of January.

The instruction went out (and not from me, I hasten to add) that this must not happen again. The result is that works are now given an unnecessarily long buffer period and so finish unnecessarily early. This is not efficient, either in terms of the use of the possession or in terms of the consequent number of extra possessions that have to be taken.

As a minister, I spent a night with the

maintenance men (and they were all men) replacing track on the Northern Line somewhere up near Highgate. By the time the power had been switched off and we had walked along to the section of track that needed attention, there was barely two hours’ for the work itself before it was time to reverse the process. The length of track replaced, and this is no reflection on the workforce, was pitifully small.

I would encourage Network Rail to narrow the buffer zone between works ending and the first train running. It may well be that this means that one or two per cent of works will overrun, but in my view that is a price worth paying if it means more efficient use of time and so reduces the number of possessions required.

Then there is the question of the methods used by those undertaking works to the permanent way. My own observations, which I accept are limited, suggest that the methods used are ones that would be recognisable to Victorian navvies.

Is Network Rail equipped with the most up-to-date equipment to speed up engineering works, and is it being used? Indeed, can it be used on short possessions?

Will any of this change with the arrival of Great British Railways? Well the government’s White Paper, now a year old, boldly stated that GBR would have as its “primary focus” the need to serve passengers. It also, in Chapter 7, promised “better planning of track and infrastructure works”.

It further stated that GBR “will be a new organisation, not just a larger version of Network Rail”.

All fine words in these three sentiments, but fine words alone butter no parsnips, as my great-aunt might have said a long time ago. Let us have a plan to deliver the culture change we need to see in the planning and operation of engineering works.

I want to see the railway grow. The way engineering works are presently delivered is a serious impediment to that objective.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Norman Baker served as transport minister from May 2010 until October 2013. He was Lib Dem MP for Lewes between 1997 and 2015.

6 May 2022 | 17

04/05/2022 16:39

COMMENT CONCESSONARY TRAVEL

ALEX WARNER

Don’t neglect your older customers

If your concessionary travellers have not returned since Covid, ask yourself this... what have you done to make them feel valued?

Have you ever been to an ALBUM (Association of Local Bus Managers) Conference? I was at their annual shindig last week, which was in Blackpool, and a right riveting, raucous event it was. Three days of shenanigans with cerebral pontification, animated debate and innovative displays from operators and suppliers. There was also golf, comedians (and not just the presenters, including yours truly), dancing girls, magicians and much more,and Blackpool Transport’s illustrious CEO Jane Cole led a twilight zone conga that wove its way from the dance floor in and out the ballroom and back.

Crazy, crazy stuff but not as crackers as the bus industry neglecting the concessionary fares market over the years and now worrying frantically because it’s only up to 60% of preCovid levels - the theme of my presentation at the event. The organisers asked me to focus on the search for new markets but in my usual rebellious way, I was having none of it and instead decided to discuss the fact that the old market is one we should be caressing more.

The problem is that we’ve taken old-timers for granted. On some occasions, the industry has denigrated them in passing, and spent too much time whinging about the mechanics or injustices of the concessionary fares model rather than trying to unlock usage. When did you last go to a conference or attend a webinar or listen to a podcast that talked about trying to get elderly folk on board? That’s the problem with society, it obsesses about 18 | 6 May 2022 PT264p18-19 18

young people, placing them at the centre of everything and then wonders why they have become so spoilt and selfish - the ‘me, me, me’ generation. It’s sexier for marketing collateral for the general focus to be on those perfectly sculpted, nubile, attractive 20 or 30-somethings rather than old folk with their ailments and supposedly less alluring looks - a market that might grumble or moan

When did you last go to a conference that talked about trying to get elderly folk on board?”

My dad is a proud bus user!

or just be cynical, as opposed to the one where everything is novel and everyone acts delighted and exhilarated and well, just ‘Wow’!

The bus industry often thinks that the elderly market is a dying one. Of course, we’re all on our way out as soon as we’re born and seniors are closest to it than others, but we forget that we are a provider for the elderly and once one generation has caught the bus to the Pearly Gates, there’s another on the conveyor belt to follow and to focus on. I don’t see those leading brands that cater for the elderly worry, like we do, that we’re attracting older people - the Wyevales, Saga Holidays, Churchill Homes, Stannahs of the world. Why can’t we motivate ourselves with the quest of becoming a specialist provider for senior citizens, experts in knowing and delivering their requirements? When did you last see someone post on LinkedIn, celebrating a bus packed with grey-haired or bald folk? Diversity and inclusion can include older people.

It amazes me how as a sector we don’t think of winning new custom and extracting more from existing customers as part of a conventional sales cycle - we never look at our sales pipeline. If we did, we’d be thinking ahead and engaging with the 50-somethings, the pre-retirement market. When I turned 50, I was hit with an avalanche of advertising telling me to better manage my savings and pension or offering me a place at the sheltered housing (over 50 only). I’ve even had an influx of emails about wills and funeral plans. It surprises me that bus companies don’t engage with the major corporates and try and offer incentives for those in their 50s and early 60s to taste the bus or include tutelage about the benefits of their bus pass and the experiences that can be unlocked, as part of pre-retirement exit support provision that employers provide.

How often have you seen folk, particularly posh-knobs, brag they’ve received their bus pass as though its some kind of a hoot that’s suddenly made them ‘working class’, though they’ve no intention of ever using it? We should capitalise on this sense of achievement in publicity campaigns. The industry could also benefit from pooling financial resources for a marketing campaign in which an elderly icon could be the promotional face of the Concessionary Fares campaign. A wellknown, hugely popular endorser such as, say, Judi Dench, Michael Caine, Cliff Richard or www.passengertransport.co.uk

04/05/2022 16:53

“The bus pass is, as it is perfectly named in London, a ‘freedom pass’” Sharon Osbourne, might raise the profile of the scheme and resonate with the public.

Indeed, the marketing needs to be carefully thought out. The bus pass is, as it is perfectly named in London, a ‘freedom pass’. It unlocks the kind of carefree, meandering emancipation that folk dream about with retirement as the antidote to the repressive, stressful noise of working life. It offers adventures that can be punctuated by simple pleasures - a pint in the pub, trip to a museum, reading the paper in the sun on the beach or in the park.

Marketing should expand upon these connotations of freedom and simplicity alongside creating reasons to travel, inspiration and ‘things to do’ - a crucial concept than can ‘make or break’ retirees’ feelings of well-being and reasons to live. There should be tie-ups with pastimes that provide that substance for older people - trips to county cricket, membership of model railway clubs, hiking, ‘real ale’ pub tours, Monday morning discounted cinema showings and so on itinerant propositions that lay on ideal days out and do the planning for customers.

We should also focus heavily on ‘membership’ for it is ‘being a member’ and of ‘belonging’ that is so important to the retired generation - create a club that includes membership of the bus company but also other partner organisations. Indeed, encourage volunteers to contribute to the running of bus companies - ambassadors that contribute their time, knowledge and experience and who can also be advocates among their peer groups. I’ve worked for many organisations in which older volunteers are the lifeblood and make such a positive impact on so many levels.

Instead of trying to recreate our proposition radically, we should focus on its appeal and improve it further. We take for granted that elderly people actually want, like me, to spend a few hours on a bus looking out of the window and watching the world come and go as customers hop on and off. They want to engage with a driver who knows that engaging back is really important to the experience, in particularly, of elderly customers. My genial old buffer of a dad (he’s 87 now!) was so downbeat last week, when I insisted that ‘Er Indoors drove him to the hospital for an appointment.

The Old Boy was looking forward to being independent and getting on-board the 555 to Ashford, enjoying the journey and a cup of www.passengertransport.co.uk

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black coffee (three sugars) in ‘the restaurant in Tesco’ and we’d ruined his day.

Another opportunity is to capitalise on grandparents taking their grandchildren out on buses - trips that are very popular either to fun-filled destinations or merely for the thrill of the journey itself! Why not set up a ‘Grandparents Club’, providing free travel for the tin lids and tailored goodies, as well as maybe ‘I Spy’ type games for the trip, as well as discounts at attractions?

More could also be done to market in totality the scenic bus journeys around the UK - First Bus has introduced an ‘Adventures

by Bus’ across its breath-taking portfolio of routes across Devon and Cornwall. Marketing is designed to capture many markets, but particularly to inspire older people to make exciting journeys. A central campaign across the industry to promote ‘Great Britain’s Scenic Bus Routes’ could provide great potential.

We should also reconnect with our concessionary fares folk by reintroducing leaflets or reopening Travel Shops (and maybe merging them with Post Offices or other similar community-based hubs that add social value) and we shouldn’t be so obsessed with apps as the answer to everything.

We need more generally to be all over the customer proposition - my brand of ‘Delight the Customer’ training that properly focuses drivers on the specific needs of customers, rather than the anodyne, ‘going through the motions’ CPC stuff that’s been around since the first bus was ever created.

We should also properly address the concerns of elderly passengers around safety and security on buses, dispelling myths and being more reassuring. So too with punctuality - notices should be produced that record the extent to which buses are actually on-time and reliable. When delays ensue we should also actually mourn them and provide a solution managers have tended to trot out the phrase ‘we’ve provided information of the delay on twitter’ as though that means they don’t need to do anything else.

Other aspects of travelling by bus need to be simplified. If we created the world again, would we have rival bus companies with different logos and liveries in the same city or on the same route, confusing the hell out of folk? Even within companies, the multitude of liveries, products and logos jar and irk customers.

Research is key. When did you last hear of a bus company doing a study into the needs of the elderly market, let alone on a segmented basis differentiating between types of concessionary fares customers? With older people, we just generalise, lumping them as one and rarely, if ever, surveying their needs.

We’re no better than wider society which just thinks of them as wearing beige, grumbling a lot and being dinosaurs in their thinking.

Talking of research, there are evaluations of the concessionary travel scheme by the Department for Transport in 2016 and Greener Journeys in 2017, and they provide compelling and comprehensive reading.

Unsurprisingly, there’s a lot around some of those often unquantifiable benefits in terms of improving the physical and mental wellbeing of elderly folk, as well as the positive impact of free bus travel in being able to help facilitate paid employment and voluntary work for senior citizens. Research, which also includes that produced by Cambridge University Press in 2016 and 2019, suggests that car drivers who don’t use buses are mentally more negatively affected when they can drive no longer - an almost debilitating denouement ‘that’s your lot in life’ psychology prevails which can have an impact on their life expectancy. I had this when I was 32 and failed my fourth and final driving test (a residential crash course in Clacton with the examiner forcibly taking the wheel off me as he narrowly averted a head on collision with a First Essex Bus).

The summation of all the various strands of research is that if you travel by bus then you’ll live longer. That’s a compelling marketing message in itself, even before the audience is told that we’re giving away free bus passes for the rest of their life to facilitate this.

What other industry is able to offer something so extensive for nothing? That’s something these publicity hungry, self-promoting bus sector top dogs should be shouting from the rooftops. If they can’t get older bums on seats then heaven help them, the industry doesn’t deserve to be saved.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR George Alex Warner Muirhas wasover director 28 years’ general experience of the in Association the transportofsector, Train Operating having held Companies senior roles on afrom multi-modal 1999 to 2008 basis across the sector

6 May 2022 | 19

04/05/2022 16:53

COMMENT

CHRIS CHEEK

What will buses look like in 30 years’ time?

I had a tough assignment at last week’s ALBUM Conference: predict what role the bus industry will have in the UK economy in 2052

The last three years have been tough for the bus industry. In reality, looking back on it, the last 10 years have been tough. And now you come to mention it, life has been bloody difficult for the entire 50 years I’ve been in and around the industry. Looking ahead, I don’t see it getting much easier either. But then that’s been at least part of the attraction of working here: the challenge of something different every day - a new problem to solve, a new issue to face. Just getting the buses out every morning can sometimes seem like a minor miracle, what with staff issues, parts shortages and all the myriad of other things that can go wrong.

In trying to get my head around the future, I first looked to the past. It was the American guru Carl Sagan who once said: “You have to know the past to understand the present”. And if you don’t understand the present, what chance have you with what’s likely to come after?

There are three lessons I would draw from the past. First, that you cannot legislate to achieve modal shift. By my reckoning, there have been seven major pieces of legislation affecting the bus industry passed since 1968 as well as numerous new regulations - all with the avowed intention of reversing the decline in bus use - tinkering with organisational or regulatory structures, or in the highflown words of the Blair government’s mission, trying to turn “a workhorse into a thoroughbred”. None of them has worked.

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discussing precisely why they’ve all failed but, fundamentally, it’s been about lack of funding, lack of appreciation of the detail, and a failure to address the huge competitive disadvantage the bus has against the private car in door-to-door journey times and therefore in generalised cost.

The second lesson from the past is a simple one: quality pays. Operators that have delivered high quality service provision accompanied by sustained partnerships with local authorities in consistent, pro-public transport policies have seen patronage growth and trip rates double or even treble that of other areas of the country.

The third lesson is that the industry exists in a constantly shifting marketplace and must constantly adapt to economic change and social upheaval. This has happened throughout my lifetime, and you can plot the change: TV ownership and the growth of the “affluent society” in the 1950s, car ownership in the 1960s and 1970s, de-industrialisation in the 1980s, the out of town shopping revolution of the 1990s, the internet in the 2000s and the smartphone in the 2010s. Each has in its own way revolutionised the backdrop against which the industry has worked. The idea that we could “return” to some mythical age of stability in which networks never changed and buses always turned up on time is pure fantasy.

And then there’s the present - what I described recently as “the industry’s perfect storm”. Even before Covid, the industry was falling victim to growing congestion and a decade of massive cuts to tendered services (primarily responsible for patronage loss in many areas). We were already seeing the increases in home or hybrid working and online shopping that would become such a feature of life during the pandemic. Meanwhile, in policy terms, we’ve had a succession of governments since the turn of the century who have talked the talk on climate change, but consistently failed to deliver the measures that would really make a difference in transport terms - still frozen in the headlights of the fuel tax rebellions that so spooked Tony Blair’s government and the ‘yellow vest’ rebellion over fuel prices in France in 2018, which nearly did for President Macron.

On top of all that, we’ve then had the effect of the pandemic itself - the three lockdowns and the consequent shift online in so many aspects of our lives. As if that wasn’t enough, congestion is back as traffic volumes have returned to pre-pandemic levels and we have a chronic driver shortage, thanks at least in part to Brexit and the government’s disastrous immigration policies. And meanwhile, in most parts of the country, the passengers have stayed away in droves - especially concessionary pass holders. Based on assumptions about changes in journey purpose, it looks as if the most we can expect to win back is around 90% of pre-Covid patronage levels.

So what of the future then? In trying to examine what might happen, I divided the topics into the ‘known unknowns’ and the www.passengertransport.co.uk

04/05/2022 17:49

“The bus will remain the most flexible, responsive and cost-effective form of public transport yet devised” ‘unknown unknowns’ (to borrow former US defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s famous phrase).

Into the ‘known unknowns’ category, I put three issues: the industry’s short-term survival, the technological change that the industry is going through and decarbonisation.

The short-term future is the most worrying.

In the absence of a post-Covid recovery and further funding from the government, we face an autumn of service cuts and fare increases, whilst declining commercial returns will hamper investment levels. Ultimately, this threatens the future of commercial bus operation and will encourage the spread of franchising - except there’s no money in the public sector either.

There are two major areas of technological change, with immense consequences - the end of diesel and, possibly, the end of the driver.

The end of the diesel-engined bus is now almost inevitable, driven by the need to improve local air quality, the government’s net zero policies and the demonisation of diesel by the media. It is clear therefore that zero emission buses are the future, and it is quite likely that some operators are buying their last diesel buses now - and it is looking increasingly likely that 2035 will see their elimination from our streets.

However, that is not to say that the road to zero emissions will be easy. There is, as yet no commercial case for zero emission buses. The cost of ownership is still greater than diesel, as a result of the high capital cost of the vehicles and the infrastructure needed to support them.

As a rough measure, there is a five to one ratio: the infrastructure cost for five buses would buy another new bus. At the moment, we have no certainty of government funding for future tranches of vehicle deliveries, whilst the Zero Emission Bus Regional Areas (ZEBRA) process that authorities and operators have just gone through was cumbersome and time-consuming.

Nevertheless, we can I think say with some certainty that the bus fleet will be zero emission by 2052.

There is much less certainty around the future of autonomous vehicles - despite the news of the first trials of the CAVForth project.

The case for autonomy was not helped by the mishaps that overtook early car experiments, whilst other bus projects have tended to focus on smaller vehicles. There are grave doubts as www.passengertransport.co.uk

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to whether the public would find it acceptable to ride along our streets on completely unstaffed autonomous buses. However, with recruitment issues and a potential cost saving of up to 40%, there will inevitably be pressure to achieve progress here - even if some form of customer care staffing must be provided.

The decarbonisation agenda promises to be one of the most decisive influences on the future of the bus industry in the next 30 years.

The targets proposed by the Climate Change Committee and endorsed by the Government call for a reduction of 5% in local car mileage by 2032, rising to 9% by 2035 and to 17% by 2050 - savings to be achieved by reducing the need for travel (for example, by home working) and by modal shift from car to active modes and public transport.

The targets would imply a reduction of 66 billion passenger kilometres travelled by car by 2035 (taking demand back to 2001 levels) and of 125 billion by 2050 (back to 1993 levels).

I estimate that if a third of those car passenger km switch to bus and coach by 2050, that would mean 42 billion extra passenger kilometres.

Combined with the 33 billion passenger km on buses and coaches in Great Britain in 2019 (pre-Covid), this would result see patronage increase 2.3 times. In historical terms, it would return bus demand to 1962 levels.

It is an attractive prospect for the bus industry, even though coping with additional demand on such a scale would offer huge challenges in terms of staffing, funding and resources. The question is whether a change on such a scale is really going to happen.

On the one hand, the targets are now enshrined in law, backed up by treaty obligations freely entered into by the UK Government. The evidence base and research carried out by the Climate Change Committee is credible and widely respected, whilst pressure from campaign groups will continue to mount.

On the other hand, there is no real sign that the public fully grasps the scale of the changes being talked about, or that there is any political will to force the issue in the face of the tabloid press and the motoring lobby.

The arrival of electric cars has encouraged the belief amongst many people that this solves the environmental question for the private car, whereas it does nothing of the sort. What worries me is that the history of public policy in this country over the last 30 years is littered

with failures and messy compromises on issues just as important as this one. Net zero is another area so controversial that failure or messy compromise could be the outcome.

And so we turn to the ‘unknown unknowns’.

I identified three areas that would affect the future of our industry - technological change; societal change in attitudes, behaviour and structure (for example in education, the future of retail and whether attitudes towards car ownership and use); and political shifts especially the future of populist movements and evolving attitudes towards private enterprise and public sector control.

Even accepting that we don’t know the outcome of any of these major influences on our lives, we do know that Britain in 2052 will be a very different place from what it is today.

Life is a constant process of evolution anyway, but change will be driven by the impact of net zero policies, of artificial intelligence and its impact on employment levels and the economy as a whole and by the impact of disruptive technologies yet to be invented the biggest ‘unknown unknown’ of them all.

Whatever happens, it is my belief that the bus will remain the most flexible, responsive and cost-effective form of public transport yet devised. This means that it has a vital role to play in delivering net zero policies, guaranteeing its central role in 2052. If it is to achieve this, it will need to evolve and adapt to changes (known and unknown), just as it has done over the last 120 years.

The bus of the future will be zero emission, may very well be autonomous, but will still need priority over other traffic to do its job.

What won’t change is that demand for bus services will still rely on a mix of price, quality and time, and optimising that mix will still be necessary to maintain and grow patronage.

When 2052 comes I shall - if I am spared be 101 years old: I look forward to discussing the outcome of the previous 30 years with everybody!

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Chris Cheek has worked in the public transport industry for over 49 years, the last 30 as an analyst and consultant. He is managing director of Passenger Transport Intelligence Services, (formerly TAS Publications & Events)

6 May 2022 | 21

04/05/2022 17:49

COMMENT

NICK RICHARDSON

Is Welsh bus policy the way forward?

Wales has announced plans to reform the way in which buses are delivered. The proposed changes may lead the way for others?

The Welsh Government is very interested in bus services and is exploring ways of making them better to operate and better for the communities they serve. This is consolidated in the mantra ‘One network, one timetable, one ticket’. The current consultation sets out the problems of providing buses across mixed geographies with a highly fragmented framework of demand, operators and regulations. The Regulatory Impact Assessment for the proposed changes notes that even prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, over half of the bus revenue in Wales was derived from the Welsh Government in the form of Bus Service Support Grant (the equivalent of BSOG) and concessionary travel reimbursement.

An example to follow?

In many ways, Welsh Government is ahead of the pack when it comes to positive thinking about buses. What sets this approach apart from England is that it takes into account the Wellbeing of Future Generations Act (promoting sustainable development), the Wales Transport Strategy (Llwybr Newydd) with its vision for an accessible, sustainable and efficient transport system, Net Zero Wales and the Bws Cymru concept with local or regional control that is centrally managed with a strong focus on bus users. This all builds on what is in place currently, including longer distance bus services forming the TrawsCymru network and promotion and delivery of demand responsive 22 | 6 May 2022 PT264p22-23 22

services under the ‘Fflecsi’ brand. Note that there is a transport strategy for Wales, unlike England where the only apparent strategy strategy is to carry on regardless. Funding is of course a key issue, but here spending on buses is regarded as investment in communities rather than subsidy for a residual non-car population.

With the Welsh Government taking control of all rail services in Wales, it makes sense to coordinate bus and train services more meaningfully. Comparing UK funding levels with European areas suggests that there is lost ground to make up with proper coordination and ongoing funding commitment.

Devolution is an important aspect. With Welsh Government taking a lead, a franchised network would give its constituent local authorities powers to create better bus services. Here the central ‘guiding mind’ can

ensure consistency while creating a common purpose among the many operators and authorities. Rightly, carrying on as we have done for years is not regarded as a sensible way forward; the current arrangements are not fit for purpose. There is a recognition that partnerships require effort and funding and among other initiatives, Welsh Government proposes increasing bus workers’ pay and covering the costs of providing electric bus charging facilities at depots.

A route to franchised services The franchise period is proposed to be ten years, subject to local considerations.

Experience of rail franchising indicates that shorter franchise lengths can create problems, especially when it comes to investment in rolling stock. However, there is also a need for suitable transition arrangements to avoid all franchises reaching their renewal dates at the same time. Another lesson from the railway is the existence of an operator of last resort should any operator fail – this might be something for Welsh Government to consider.

The upshot of the analysis is that the costs and benefits of franchising would generate economic benefits far greater than the costs incurred. When considered against the objectives of better services and more users, it is concluded that ‘the franchising option best addresses all of the key success factors’.

Although detailed analysis of the information provided would help to substantiate or undermine this conclusion, there remain some major risks. These include rising costs, now with a strong grip but getting worse, although the issue of wage rates is considered in the Welsh approach.

Promotion and delivery of the DRT ‘Fflecsi’ service is one of the Welsh Government’s strengths www.passengertransport.co.uk

04/05/2022 16:51

IN ASSOCIATION WITH: www.ciltuk.org.uk Tel: 01536 740100 @ciltuk

Because staff-related costs are generally about two-thirds of total operating costs, this is a big unknown. Fuel costs are also rising but even with electrification of the bus fleet as proposed, the cost of electricity seems now to be entirely unpredictable. Another risk is the availability and capacity of operators.

With over 80 operators in Wales, getting the right fit with franchised arrangements may hit a sticky start, generating resentment if some operators do not secure franchises in areas where they have traditionally provided services and are frozen out. This would be a significant disadvantage if new depot facilities are provided, e.g. a hydrogen hub or electric charging facilities at established depots or new locations such as council fleet depots; the infrastructure has to be in the right place. Should a limited number of potential franchisees step forward, then the benefits of competitive tendering are rather diminished.

This is what has happened with the railway, evolving from an open market to a series of monopolies, sometimes with just a choice between two. Franchising is about quality as well as cost but competitive advantage is somewhat dented when there isn’t proper competition.

Removing constraints The unknown future scenarios for transport mean that there needs to be greater flexibility about what buses do. With changes in employment locations and practices, bus services need to catch up. The retailing sector has also changed with different real and virtual locations. With many visitor attractions across Wales, bus journeys for leisure have big potential. Any franchised networks need to understand these changes to avoid getting stuck in the past and to promote multi-modal coordination. This includes coordination with cars as well as trains and also walking and cycling. Erratic train times can be difficult to match with bus times but the creation of TrawsCymru services suggests that there is scope to create transport hubs where bus services connect not just with other buses but with walk/cycle hubs and trains plus community transport services. Generally we know that people don’t like making journeys that involve getting out of one form of transport to get on another. Overcoming this perception will take time but is achievable if www.passengertransport.co.uk

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Bus journeys for leisure have big potential in Wales

“Welsh Government is ahead of the pack when it comes to positive thinking about buses” services are demonstrably reliable.

There are also the traditional problems for which local authorities need to get a grip, notably car parking charges which in many parts of Wales are laughably low despite policies that are supposed to support bus use. Also, meaningful bus priority in urban areas is a must have. Facilities at bus stops are improving but providing a shop window for services and a decent place to wait for the bus are still elusive in many places. This illustrates that the central ‘guiding mind’ needs to permeate right through the system and overcome local and territorial defences.

Creating a unified brand (or linked series of brands) will help everyone to understand that the ‘one network’ concept is sensible and attractive. There are already fflecsi buses that resemble Transport for Wales trains.

The regulatory arrangements could be improved. With franchising, the network is less likely to change on a regular basis than

the current arrangements but still allows for changing circumstances. Pandemic experience showed that several weeks of lead time to withdraw or introduce a service isn’t necessary.

Instead of registering a service, an operator could simply agree contractual terms and the means by which monitoring should be undertaken. This requires passenger views to be a strong performance indicator as well as measures to show the extent to which the service has been provided to the agreed specification. The fear that a central agency will take over from local authority transport interests pervades but the process can be changed effectively if handled carefully with all involved. A series of localised contracts keeps local interests involved alongside a central view offers huge benefits. The future for buses in Wales could be bright and possibly take a course that others should follow.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR Nick Richardson is Technical Principal at transport consultancy Mott MacDonald, chair of CILT’s Bus and Coach Policy Group and a former chair of the Transport Planning Society. In addition, he has held a PCV licence for over 30 years.

6 May 2022 | 23

04/05/2022 16:51

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04/05/2022 17:54

BRTuk

SUPPORTED BY: www.atkinsglobal.com @atkinsglobal

Bus Rapid Transit can help with the recovery Covid has changed the way we travel. BRT can do the same, by providing reliable, frequent, direct and cost-effective transport. Join the conversation!

Covid has done funny things to people’s habits - it’s going to James take a long time Freeman BRTuk to recover the patronage levels we used to have.

I remember reading somewhere that the damage done to bus patronage in London by the 1958 bus crews’ strike took 30 years to overcome. Unless we take decisive action, the same can happen with the recovery from Covid.

It’s not just the message, which came from the prime minister’s lips at the start of the lockdown in 2020 and was oft-repeated thereafter, that people should not use public transport, but the fact that inevitably, after such a long time a lot of people’s way of life has just changed - and they won’t change back automatically.

So we have got to get really good at encouraging people back onto public transport in general and buses in particular. At one stage it looked as though we might be going to see a very large amount of public money dedicated to that encouragement. Inevitably that has dwindled somewhat, although there is still a big slug of money being shared out.

On the other hand, congestion is not going away. In our towns and cities, and between them, capacity levels are frequently reached and the resulting congestion causes chaos. The dash to switch to electric cars does nothing but encourage congestion, even if it is www.passengertransport.co.uk

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greener congestion. So there is an increasing realisation that steps have to be taken to keep things moving - hence we are seeing a quiet but perceptible increase in interest in Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) across the country as an affordable, flexible, high grade answer to making public transport reliable, frequent, direct and cost-effective.

Obviously the gold standard is the full tramway, but the development of these systems across the UK has been very slow and immensely disruptive, while they require vast amounts of money to put them in. BRT, handled well, can provide similar improvements to mobility and accessibility at a lower cost and with a more flexible approach.

You only have to look across the channel at our neighbours in France to see how trams and BRT can be developed together and in harmony. Indeed we are developing our own example, right here, in Birmingham,

where the Sprint scheme is being developed alongside Midland Metro in other parts of the West Midlands conurbation.

At BRTuk we are dedicated to assisting all who are interested in developing the role of the bus.

We are a voluntary not-for-profit company whose purpose is to promote buses as a vital means of public transport by acting as an information hub for people from across the industry, including operators, local authorities, consultants and manufacturers, as well as the wider public.

There was a time when our principal means of bringing people together at BRTuk was through our annual conference, but for various reasons that’s not such an easy answer these days. On the other hand, last autumn we ran a most successful programme of Lunchtime Masterclasses on Zoom, every Thursday at 12:30 for 60 minutes.

The format was a 20-minute

LUNCHTIME MASTERCLASSES MAY 19: Peter Shelley of Portsmouth City Council on Bus Service Improvement Plans. ‘Be careful what you wish for!’

MAY 26: Angela Hosford of Transport for West Midlands on Sprint.

JUNE 9: Tony Brown of Atkins on ‘Intelligent Bus Priority’.

JUNE 16: Liz Helen Rosenkilda Christensen on ‘Busveien’, 50kms of busway in Stavanger region of Norway.

JUNE 23: Thomas Ableman, director of innovation at Transport for London, asks ‘Why Innovation?’

JUNE 30: Shane Hymers of Kent County Council on Fastrack.

JULY 7: Robert Montgomery of Busesreinvented.com discusses ‘UK Bus: Delivering the promised land - sharing the spend and the spoils.’

ABOUT BRTuk BRTuk has members from across the industry, including operators, promoters, manufacturers and consultants. It serves as an information hub and engages with all levels of government.

Visit: www.brtuk.com

presentation by an invited guest followed by moderated discussion prompted by the questions in the chat - all finished at 13:30 on the dot. We ran six of these masterclasses over successive weeks and they were very well received with good attendances and lively conversations.

Now, with the support of Atkins, we are laying on another round of Lunchtime Masterclasses that we hope will be interesting, educational and entertaining. They will take place every Thursday from May 19, at 12:30 for just an hour on Zoom.

We have a varied programme of seven fascinating speakers (see panel), combining information about scheme developments with more general topics about the future of UK buses.

It couldn’t be simpler to join the sessions. Just email events@brtuk.com to register and we will send you a link a few days before the event. On the day, just click on the link and there you are!

If this spring series of BRTuk Lunchtime Masterclasses supported by Atkins, is well received (and we hope it will be!) then we look forward to running another series in October and November 2022. If there are topics you’d like to hear about or if you want to suggest a speaker please contact BRTuk via our website (www.brtuk.com). Thanks!

6 May 2022 | 25

04/05/2022 17:54

EVENTS EUROPEAN MOBILITY EXPO

AWARDS

Over 170 exhibitors at the European Mobility Expo show

Three awards ceremonies will be taking place during the event to honour individuals in the industry. They are:

Mobility professionals will gather in Paris European Mobility Expo expected to attract 11,000 visitors

The tenth edition of European Mobility Expo will be held from June 7-9 at the Paris Porte de Versailles exhibition centre; over 170 exhibitors will welcome some 11,000 visitors. This three-day event is devoted to mobility professionals, giving them an opportunity to meet, discuss, and learn more about the latest developments the sector. The City of Milan will be guest of honour.

Focus on an innovative and dynamic sector Over 170 exhibitors from France and abroad will be taking part, including manufacturers, operators, energy suppliers, engineering firms, companies working in passenger information systems and ticketing, startups, and active mobility stakeholders.

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They’ll be presenting new products and services to a range of visitors: local authority politicians and officers, operators, entrepreneurs, journalists, and others. As GIE Objectif transport public chairman Marc Delayer explains, “In the wake of an unprecedented health crisis, EuMo Expo offers an opportunity to strengthen commercial relations, begin new partnerships, meet elected officials from one’s locality and elsewhere, and discover new solutions.”

“An opportunity to strengthen commercial relations, begin new partnerships, meet elected officials” Marc Delayer

Talks at the heart of the exhibition

“The environment, energy, and multi-modal solutions: transition or revolution? Sustainable mobility as a way forward for the future” is the umbrella theme chosen

by France’s Transportation Authorities Group GART and UTP for the programme of talks, open to all, to be held at the heart of the exhibition.

Experts from France and across Europe will be getting together to discuss concerns of mobility authorities and operators such as energy transition, Mobility as a Service, mobility for young people and seniors, and deregulation. Exhibitors will also have 30-minute slots to present their innovations and promising outcomes of trial projects.

For further information about European Mobility Expo visit: www.eumo-expo.com

THE EUROPEAN TALENT IN MOBILITY AWARDS The European Talent in Mobility Awards honour women and men working to improve public transport and sustainable mobility in Europe. The awards highlight a selection of European players, at various stages in their careers, who fully deserve recognition across the industry as a whole.

EuMo Expo is celebrating Talents in five categories: Best young talent; Best project manager; Best manager; Special career service award; Web users’ award.

SMART MOVE CHALLENGE This international contest invites start-ups to put forward an idea, solution, or product facilitating personal mobility that operates or is used collectively or on a sharing basis. The Smart Move Challenge is open to emerging new enterprises seeking their first market and yet to find a firm footing in their chosen line of business. There are three broad categories for entrants: Resources and services for users; Resources and services for local authorities; Resources and services for operations.

INNOVATION AWARDS Reserved for exhibitors, the Innovation Awards honour technology innovations and new services in four categories: Operating and ticketing systems; ITS: passenger information and services; Accessibility, Fittings, Facilities, and Design; Energy and the environment.

www.passengertransport.co.uk

04/05/2022 16:58

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04/05/2022 16:58

COMMENT

WANT TO KNOW MORE? Visit Portland’s fuel forum page: portland-analytics.co.uk/fuel-forum

OIL MARKET REPORT

£

PORTLAND FUEL ANALYTICS - MAY 2022

Record-breaking fuel price volatility

The appalling events in Ukraine have seen oil and energy markets move at breakneck speed, and these challenges are likely to remain

Nothing that is currently happening in the commercial world can ever be compared to the appalling events that continue to James Spencer unfold in Ukraine.

Portland However, this report exists to observe the trials and tribulations of oil and energy market,s and the pandemonium experienced since March 1 - across all commodity sectors - is quite frankly incomparable to anything that has gone before.

Operating in such a commercial environment is not for the faint-hearted. Providing fixed prices when markets are moving at breakneck speed has been (euphemism alert) “challenging”.

Delivering diesel when every loading point in the country has either been on allocation (a form of supply rationing) or overrun by eco-protesters has required “patience”. And manufacturing AdBlue when over 40% of the required raw material (Automotive Urea) comes from Ukraine and Russia, has necessitated “new and inventive ways of working”.

Such is our world at the moment, but even in the light of these formidable day to day pressures, the headline story continues to be the ongoing seismic movements in the oil price. Prior to March 1 of this year, the biggest historical upward movement in the diesel price was 4.30 pence per litre (ppl) on September 16, 2019 (this after Saudi oil facilities were attacked by Iranian “sponsored” drones). Since the Ukrainian invasion, this hitherto record 28 | 6 May 2022 PT264p28-29 28

has now been broken seven times(!) and the new biggest single day rise (March 8) sits at 8.87ppl!

Conversely, the biggest single diesel price drop in history was (minus) 5.39ppl on November 26, 2021. This coincided with the World Health Organisation announcing the discovery of the new Omicron Covid variant, and actually was a good indicator as to just how febrile oil markets had become by the end of 2021 (prior to the Ukrainian invasion). Even so, since March 1 this record historical drop has also been broken - twice - and the new record (March 10) sits at minus 11.62ppl!

Even when not breaking records, “normal” daily price movements have still been wild, with price volatility (up and down) at unprecedented levels. The average daily movement in the diesel price over the last five years (up to February 28 2022) was $7.44 per tonne or 0.46ppl. This means that from 2017 - 2022, prices moved (up or down) by around half a penny a litre per day - a level of volatility that most buyers and sellers got used to living with. Since March 1 of this year, the new average daily movement has been $57.04 per tonne or 3.59ppl - that’s a level of volatility that most market players (big or small) struggle

to deal with.

Sadly for UK consumers, the price volatility experienced on global markets is only part of the story, as British buyers are also hit when product shortages affect the UK supply chain.

For those readers who maintain that what we have here is simply a case of profiteering by fuel suppliers, consider this stand-out fact. In the last week of February, the UK imported over 350 million litres of diesel from Russia (around 25% of total UK diesel consumption).

Two weeks later, we imported precisely zero litres from Russia! Whilst Britain’s fuel supply chain is famously quick to adjust to shortages, no level of flexibility and innovation can fill a 350 million litres hole in two weeks. So the UK is short of diesel, oil terminals are rationing availability and the price has risen accordingly.

Finally we have AdBlue which is no longer an environmental nice to have, but an integral part of the power transmission system in all Euro 6 diesel engines. In short, when a modern diesel engine has no AdBlue, it won’t run. This is now a fairly hefty concern when you consider how much Prilled Automotive Urea (the raw material that goes into making AdBlue) previously came from Russia and Ukraine.

Furthermore, as a fertiliser bi-product another industry dominated by Russian and Ukrainian production and now also facing dire shortages - prices have rocketed. 12 months ago, urea was trading at around $500 per tonne. Now it trades at $1,600 per tonne and bulk AdBlue prices have correspondingly soared from around 20ppl to over 65ppl.

These are the real-world examples that lie behind headlines predicting rampant inflation over the next 12 months and it is difficult to see how things will improve anytime soon.

Even if the Ukrainian war was to end today, it seems highly unlikely that sanctions will be dropped, which means high prices, supply chain delays and operational challenges are here for a while yet. Our fuel system is currently stretched to the limit and whilst the industry will find solutions - it always does they will not be straight-forward and nor will they be consumer friendly.

“Whilst the industry will find solutions - it always does - they will not be straight-forward and nor will they be consumer friendly’” www.passengertransport.co.uk

04/05/2022 17:00

“Our secretary of state’s comment is an extraordinary admission of failure”

GREAT MINSTER GRUMBLES

Was rail franchising the real problem?

Our Whitehall insider imagines what’s going on inside the minds of the mandarins at Great Minster House, home of the DfT

Our secretary of state, Grant Shapps, told the Transport Select Committee on April 27, when he gave evidence in a general session on the work of this department, that there would be a Transport Bill in the Queen’s Speech. Well, he didn’t say it as explicitly as that, but that was the very clear steer when he told one MP on the committee, when questioned when there would be legislation to set up Great British Railways (GBR), to wait for the Queen’s Speech (which is on May 10) and that “you won’t be disappointed”. And although Grant Shapps said it would be a general Transport Bill - so there will presumably be other non-rail issues in it - a very large part of it will be on GBR. Every time I hear our ministers extol the virtues of the rail reforms that are planned, especially the creation of the new Passenger Service Contracts which will replace the old franchise regime, I find myself asking whether the reforms will actually make much difference. And when I speak to individuals in the train operating companies, I come across the same uncertainty.

My fundamental question is simply this: was the franchise regime really no longer fit for purpose, as is now regularly claimed by ministers, or was it actually the way that the franchise regime was implemented and the way franchise contracts were procured that was the problem? You don’t have to dig very deep to see why this is a very legitimate question. I’ve touched on this issue before, I know, but with a Transport Bill just around the www.passengertransport.co.uk

PT264p28-29 29

corner, it’s worth exploring again, because I can’t see why passengers will get a better service as a consequence of these reforms (fares reform is one exception - but we didn’t need a rail review to implement fares reform anyway).

Let’s start with one obvious point.

Network Rail is responsible for the majority of train delays. Network Rail will morph into GBR and GBR will remain responsible for the ownership and maintenance of the infrastructure. So when signals continue to fail, tracks break, or we have those engineering overruns - all of which will happen - trains will still be delayed. There is nothing in these reforms which will prevent delays. And quite why private companies would want to bid

COMMENT

for a contract which will see their maximum profit capped at 1.5% is totally beyond me, especially when they are not in control of the infrastructure which is largely responsible for determining their performance.

Now to the “evidence” that it was the way that the franchise system was operated, especially the franchise procurement process, that was the real problem, not the concept of franchising itself. I’m told that the models created by this department to help franchise bidders assess patronage demand consistently forecast year-on-year patronage growth, thus encouraging bidders to put in ever more ambitious bids based on patronage forecasts which proved incorrect - incorrect forecasts based on this department’s modelling. Which reminds me of Martin Griffiths’ evidence to the transport committee shortly after the Stagecoach-led franchise for the East Coast Main Line collapsed. He said that it became obvious pretty much from the moment Stagecoach took over the franchise that it would go bust, because Stagecoach had used information on passenger revenue from the data room which proved to be out of date and therefore wrong - data that was provided or at least overseen by this department.

So if it is the case that this department was running models which forecast continuing passenger growth when in fact that passenger growth was proving illusionary, then you have to ask the question: was it really the case that franchising was no longer fit for purpose, or was it the way it was overseen?

And I was taken aback by a comment made by our secretary of state in his evidence to the Transport Select Committee on April 27 when he said that under the new Passenger Service Contracts train operators “will have to perform for the customer ... which unfortunately was not the way franchise contracts operated in the past”. What an extraordinary admission.

If the franchise contracts weren’t operating in a way that required operators to perform for the customer, who were they required to perform for? And why on earth did this department create, procure and oversee a franchise regime which apparently did not require operators to perform for the customer?

Our secretary of state’s comment is an extraordinary admission of failure, not by the operators, not by Network Rail, not by the regulator, but by this department.

6 May 2022 | 29

04/05/2022 17:00

CAREERS

Shortlist for TPE schemes Train operator is one of four shortlisted for social inclusion awards at Women in Rail Awards TransPennine Express (TPE) has been recognised for its work with local communities in promoting rail as a great career choice for women regardless of background.The train operator is one of four organisations shortlisted for the Social Inclusion award at the Women in Rail Awards, set to take place in London on May 19.

TPE runs a number of programmes designed to introduce rail as a potential career to communities across the North and Scotland. Schemes such as those for apprentices and graduates have led to 20% of new recruits over the last 12 months being under the age of 25, with more young women joining the business than ever before.

To provide more opportunities for women to develop their careers, TPE has launched its Step Up and Step Forward programmes to support female representation in management

TPE aims to provide more opportunities for women in the rail industry

30 | 6 May 2022 PT264p30-31 30

grade roles. The programme consists of coaching and peer to peer workshops focused on building presence and impact; working with stakeholders; career planning and strengthening networks. As a result of this commitment, in the past year, 24% of internal promotions were achieved by women, along with a third of TPE’s new recruits.

Building on this, last year TPE launched a pilot Reach Up and Reach Forward programme specifically designed to support career development for colleagues from ethnically diverse backgrounds.

“We’re honoured to have been shortlisted for such a prestigious award,” said Rhonda Barnes , TPE diversity and inclusion manager. “Working together we can build a better future for our communities, colleagues, and customers. Our values are central to this, especially being ‘supportive of each other’.

“Our colleagues are from all walks of life. We have worked hard to create an inclusive and diverse mindset and to be an organisation whose culture, approach, efforts, and achievements are inspirational in its effort to include local communities in rail.”

The other organisations shortlisted for the award are Northern Trains, Siemens Mobility and the Transpennine Route Upgrade (West). For more information about the awards visit www.womeninrail.org/awards.

APPOINTMENTS GTR Angie Doll, managing director of Southern and Gatwick Express, has been appointed as Govia Thameslink Railway’s chief operating officer.

Doll (pictured) joined the industry in 1999 as station manager at Brighton. She worked up through the ranks in Go-Ahead Group before joining Southern and Gatwick Express in 2014 as passenger services director, where she became the MD in 2018. She has held the role of interim COO for GTR for the past six months.

“Angie has multifaceted talents,” said Patrick Verwer, chief executive of GTR. “Her understanding of the changing needs of our customers, her drive to continuously improve our operations and her intimate knowledge of the sector puts her in an ideal position to help deliver a better railway.”

The process to find a new managing director for Southern and Gatwick Express is under way.

WRIGHTBUS Wrightbus has set its sights on expansion across Europe with the appointment of a new European chief commercial officer.

Jean-Luc Deflandre (pictured) is a former advisor to the board of BYD and former chief commercial officer of electric bus manufacturer Ebusco.

“I am delighted and excited to be joining Wrightbus at an incredibly important period for the company and for passenger transport as a whole,” he said. “Wrightbus is leading the way in zero-emissions vehicles in this field.”

STAGECOACH SOUTH Stagecoach South has announced the appointment of James O’Neill as commercial director at the Chichester-based bus operator.

O’Neill (pictured) joins from sister company Stagecoach West where he oversaw a period of significant network growth since 2015. However, O’Neill is no stranger to the area as he began his career with the group at Stagecoach South in 2007 as commercial assistant .

In his new role, O’Neill will oversee the strategic management and planning of local bus networks, fares, and marketing, continuing the evolution of customer-focused, cost effective and reliable bus networks across Hampshire, Surrey and West Sussex. He will also play a significant part in stakeholder liaison.

FIRST WESSEX First Hampshire, Dorset and Berkshire has appointed Richard Gagg as operations manager of Weymouth-based First Wessex.

A qualified transport manager with 20 years in the industry, Gagg began his career as a bus driver.

He moves to First Wessex from Salisbury Reds where he was also operations manager.

“We’re absolutely delighted to have Richard on board,” said Carol Sim, First Hampshire, Dorset and Berkshire’s head of operations. “His extensive experience, and passion for developing his team, are real assets, especially as we move into our busy summer season.”

www.passengertransport.co.uk

04/05/2022 17:06

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04/05/2022 17:06

To advertise here call 020 3950 8000 or email sales@passengertransport.co.uk

DIVERSIONS

Curtain up as NCT renews panto link

in a specially customised bus conductor’s uniform, he launched the sponsorship extension, which will also see theatre-goers offered a 15% discount on adult and group day tickets all year round when travelling

to performances at the theatre.

Some ticket holders will also receive a 10% discount when they book tickets for Dick Whittington.

This year’s panto performance will tell the story of the magical rags to riches tale of plucky Dick Whittington and his trusty cat as they embark on a journey that takes them to London where the streets are paved with gold, onto the High Seas and into battle with the evil King Rat. Oo-er!

“Nottingham City Transport is thrilled to be continuing its sponsorship of the fabulous Playhouse Panto for a further five years,” said Anthony Carver-Smith, NCT’s head of marketing.

For as long as can be remembered, Dorothy Mould has been putting smiles on the faces of Go North East bus drivers by providing them with sweets and other gifts as she regularly boarded the Cityrider 56 service.

In recent months, Dorothy had not been spotted making her usual journeys, and the driving team managed to find out that she had moved into the care home.

As a thank you for Dorothy’s kindness over the years, the Deptford, Sunderland, based depot team organised a collection

to show their appreciation.

Two Go North East bus drivers, Chris Ogilvie and Tony Emmerson, went along to visit Dorothy on behalf of the team with a large bouquet of flowers and the remainder of the collection to say thank you for all the gifts.

“We were delighted to go and visit Dorothy and say thank you for her kindness over the years,” said Chris. “It was always a pleasure to see her out and about, and she always brightened up the day with her cheerful personality.”

Operator to sponsor Dick Whittington pantomime Now that Easter is over and done with, thoughts naturally turn to Christmas (Oh no they don’t! - Ed) (Oh yes they do! - Dep Ed) and Nottingham City Transport has announced it has renewed its sponsorship of the Nottingham Playhouse’s annual pantomime.

Last week Nottingham’s favourite panto dame and star of this year’s show Dick Whittington, John Elkington, celebrated in his own inimitable style. Dressed

Nicely done, Team GNE!

BUS DRIVERS ARE FANS OF DOROTHY Go North East bus drivers recently visited a care home in Washington to say thank you to one of its most well-known customers.

The bus... it’s behind you!

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The team setting out from Euston

OVERGROUNDERS WALK THE LINE Staff from London Overground operator Arriva Rail London recently walked the length of the London Euston to Watford Junction London Overground route, to raise money for the Railway Benefit Fund.

Customer hosts Andrew Hallisey, Liam Nixon and Neha Patel, who are based at Hatch End station, came up with the idea.

In total, the group walked around 20 miles, passing 19 Overground stations on the way where they called in for refreshments and a dose of encouragement.

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04/05/2022 17:05