The economics of area wide management: the case of Qfly (Subtitle: the economics of surveillance) Ben White, Rohan Sadler, Veronique Florec and Bernie Dominiak Project 70100 Optimal Investment in R&D for Plant Biosecurity Science Exchange The Vines 2012
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The Challenge Potential loss of key organo-phosphate controls in Fenthion and Dimethoate. Potentially a greater dependence in future on area-wide management schemes (AWM). Public good problem - costs mostly borne by taxpayers- benefits largely go to producers
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The Challenge Typically AWM is assessed as a whole for a BCA The study analyses how AWM should be designed in terms of surveillance, eradication and area designated - focus on surveillance Pest ecology system, data-based approach Economics has the capacity to integrate the components of a system Ask relevant questions Also has the capacity to overlook a key issue through simplification biosecurity built on science
What is Optimal
Surveillance? NSW
Broken Hill + +
SA
Menindee
+
+
Pooncarie
Hillston +
Mildura
Griffith
+ Loxton
+
Hay +
Swan Hill
+
Legend PestMon Traps (NSW) + FFEZ Boundary Echuca PFA Boundary State Boundary 15km Buffer around Traps 15km Buffer around Production Areas
+ Shepparton
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VIC
Benefits of Surveillance
after Kompas & Che 2009
X t , Yt
X max
X
e
d Q =0
c
X Qd low
f d
X QT high
X
a x0
d
b
min
T d (Q high )
T e (Q high )
T d (Q low )
T d (0)
T e (Q low )
g T
t
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0
15
Cost increase at an increasing rate as trapping density increases
10
Trap Density (traps per line
0 00
20
5
($/ha/yr) 25
Costs of Surveillance
0
5
500
500
1.5
1.0
1.0
2.0
0.5
1.5
0.5
0
50
2.0
Frequency of Trap Inspections (per week)
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Frequency of Trap Insp
However, space-time complexity ... Outbreaks are seasonally and spatially varying. Durations of outbreaks (i.e., recertification periods) are seasonally and spatially varying. Both depend on ‘market rules’. Exhibit complex dependencies: longer durations => fewer outbreaks.
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Market Rules
Biosecurity Constraint Recertification Rule Areal Rule Treatment Rule Capture Rule:
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Market Rules – Biosecurity Constraint
REVENUE Market Returns are Fixed COSTS Surveillance Eradication Post-harvest treatments biosecurity built on science
Total Revenue
$
0
Q Surveillance biosecurity built on science
Total Revenue
$
Post-Harvest Treatment Costs
0
Q Surveillance biosecurity built on science
Total Revenue
$
Post-Harvest Treatment Costs
0
Q Surveillance biosecurity built on science
Total Revenue
$ Surveillance Costs
Eradication Costs
Post-Harvest Treatment Costs
0
Q Surveillance biosecurity built on science
Total Revenue
$ Surveillance Costs
Eradication Costs
Post-Harvest Treatment Costs
0
QB Biosecurity Constraint
Q Surveillance biosecurity built on science
Total Revenue
$ Surveillance Costs
a
b
Eradication Costs
Post-Harvest Treatment Costs
0
QB Biosecurity Constraint
Q Surveillance biosecurity built on science
Total Revenue
$ Surveillance Costs
a
b
Eradication Costs
Post-Harvest Treatment Costs
0
QB Biosecurity Constraint
Q Surveillance biosecurity built on science
Total Costs
Total Revenue
$ Surveillance Costs
a
b Minimum Value of PFA Eradication Costs
Post-Harvest Treatment Costs
0
QB Biosecurity Constraint
Q Surveillance biosecurity built on science
Total Costs
Total Revenue
$ Surveillance Costs
a
b
Eradication Costs
Post-Harvest Treatment Costs
0
QB Biosecurity Constraint
Q* Optimum
Q Surveillance biosecurity built on science
Qfly Benefit-Cost Model: QFAWM Ecological
Input Database
Landscape
Climate
Traps
Trap Events
Market Access
Production
Spatial covariates of each pixel
Time varying climate indices for each pixel.
Temporal and spatial location of traps
Temporal and spatial location of trap events
Temporal and spatial location of trap events
Regional production mix and timing
e.g. elevation road density land use
e.g. degree days moisture stress (from Jan 1991)
(from Jan 1990)
e.g. species id number caught (from May 1998)
e.g. 1 generation 1 gen + 28 days 3 generations
e.g. export/ domestic market share and price
4698 traps (NSW)
~38000 Qfly Events
45 covariates; 474846 pixels 71 indices; 1000 weeks
Ecological JumpDiffusion Model
Economic
Observational
Probability of Outbreak
Duration of Outbreak
Production Value (local, seasonal)
Benefit Cost Model
Variable Costs of Outbreak
3 host crops
Monitoring Outputs
Post Harvest Costs
Eradication Costs
10 rules; 14 tables
reduced eradication costs? more market access? more detections?
=
Quarantine / Education Outputs reduced outbreak probability?
Integrate over space and time
Benefit
-
Fixed Costs
(e.g. monitoring)
=
Net Production Benefit
Red – Agency Costs Brown – Producer Costs biosecurity built on science
20 15
Postharvest
10
01
)snoilliM 1102 DUA( stsoC latoT
stsoC latoT ecnaTotal llievruSCosts noitaSurveillance cidarE tsevrEradication ahtsoP
51
Result – select The minimum Number of traps that satisfy the rule
5
5 0
0
Total Costs (AUD Total 2011Costs millions) (AUD 2011 Millions)
02
Results- Optimal Surveillance
1 0001
001.6 8
002.8 6
006.3 4
)m( stnioP ecnallievruSSurveillance neewteb gnicapSEffort
0025 2
(traps/km2)
625 0 biosecurity built on science
-33.5
Contour for Optimal Trap Spacing PFA Boundary State Boundary
900
-34.0
850
2 traps/km2 750
0
Mildura 0
80
-34.5
0 80
85
900 850
-35.0
900
Swan Hill
-35.5
Latitude
Results – Spatial Variability
1 trap/km2 900
900
142.0
142.5
143.0
143.5
144.0 biosecurity built on science
Longitude
Implications – AWM Policy Design The biosecurity constraint (surveillance to validate area freedom) specifies optimal surveillance, when surveillance is applied at a single rate across the landscape. Higher voluntary rates of surveillance are predicted well by the value of production (i.e., potentially avoided post-harvest treatment costs). Prioritise areas for inclusion into an AWM through their potentially avoided post-harvest treatment costs. biosecurity built on science
Acknowledgements DAFWA Richard Johnston, Darryl Hardie, Rob Emery, Shashi Sharma, Francis De Lima I & I NSW Kathryn Tobin, Richard Roger, Olga Ozols, Katina Lindhout, John Gould, DPI Victoria
CSIRO Entomology Darren Kriticos, David Cook, Hazel Parry ABARE CRC NPB QUT Tony Clarke, Sama LowChoy, Mark Stanaway
DSE Victoria – Emil Skender
UQ – Myron Zalucki
BOM – Cathy Toby
NEARMAP
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Economic Data Sources
Citrus Australia Murray Valley Citrus Board (MVCB) Australian Table Grape Association Inc (ATGA) Summerfruit Australia ABS National Code of Practice for the Management of Queensland Fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni (Froggart). Draft, November 2008, Version 18
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