Commitment to Fly Net Zero Decarbonization of the Aviation Sector Extended Use of SAFs Beginning 10/2022
by Pedro Baldó
Commitment to Fly Net Zero Decarbonization of the Aviation Sector Extended Use of SAFs (Sustainable Aviation Fuels) Beginning 10/2022
On the eve of the 41st ICAO Assembly to adopt a long-term aspirational goal for international civil aviation
Commitment to Fly Net Zero Decarbonization of the Aviation Sector Extended Use of SAFs (Sustainable Aviation Fuels) Beginning 2022
News Podcast: Debunking Maintenance Myths About SAF, May 23rd, 2022 Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) has been a growing part of business aviation for more than a decade. However, despite numerous industry efforts to spread understanding, awareness and use of SAF, there remain a few persistent myths about the fuel. In this episode of NBAA Flight Plan, three experts debunk these myths. In First, Sustainable Aviation Fuel Lands At Geneva Airport, Helping Outbound Flights Cut Carbon Emissions, May 20th, 2022 For the first time in its history, Geneva Airport (GVA) will have Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) available and being used to lower carbon emissions for outbound flights. The supply comes as business aviation hosts its European convention in the city from May 23th-25th. Business Aviation Leaders and Airlines Urge Biden Administration to Clear Roadblocks Holding Back Sustainable Aviation Fuel's Growth, May 18th, 2022 A coalition of 42 business aviation leaders, major U.S. airlines and other industry associations is urging the White House to clear regulatory roadblocks hindering the scale-up of sustainable aviation fuel production.
What is Sustainable Aviation Fuel ? Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is a low-carbon synthetic jet fuel that can be used safely in any turbinepowered aircraft. Derived from sustainable feedstocks – including cellulosic biomass, wastes and residues, waste steel mill gases and captured CO₂ – SAF potentially can reduce lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) by up to 80% compared to conventional jet fuel and is considered pivotal to achieving the aviation industry’s goal of a 50% net reduction in CO₂ emissions in 2050. While the availability of SAF at FBOs ( fixed-base operators) around the world continues to grow, (specially at Scandinavian countries and NW Europe)
additional supply at a competitive price is critical to achieving industry sustainability goals, with a target production capacity of 3.00 billion gallons by 2030. The sustainable aviation fuel market is projected to grow from USD $ 219 million in 2021 to USD $ 15,716 million by 2030, at a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 60.8% during the forecast period. Adoption of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) such as e-fuels, synthetic fuels, green jet fuels, biojet fuels, hydrogen fuels is one of the most feasible alternative solutions to mitigating accelerating CO2 emissions, reducing high GWP substances, and meeting net zero emissions target goals by 2050.
Sustainable aviation fuels are a key component in meeting the aviation industry’s commitments to offset carbon emissions from traffic growth. SAF gives an impressive reduction of up to 80% in CO2 emissions over the lifecycle of the fuel compared to fossil jet fuel, depending on the sustainable feedstock used, production method, and the supply chain to the airport. SAF will be an eligible option for aircraft operators to meet target goals under the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) to which (ICAO) agreed within a pilot phase from 2021–2023, followed by a first phase from 2024–2026.
The biological and non-biological resources such as oil crops, sugar crops, algae, waste oil, etc., are the raw materials that play an important role in the entire production chain of alternative aviation fuels such as synthetic fuels, e-fuels, and biojet fuels. The demand for sustainable aviation fuel can come to a standstill due to the inadequate supply of raw materials required for its production. Also, limitations of refineries that play a major role in the proper utilization of these reserves add to the delay of the overall process of SAF production. The low availability of fuel also becomes a hurdle for the blending capacity of the fuel, leading to less efficiency in its manufacture and wide spread use.
Sustainable aviation fuel, when blended with petroleum-based fuel, is fully fungible drop-in fuels. These fuels are also known as synthetic fuels, renewable jet fuels, e-fuels, green fuels, conventional biojet fuel, and alternative jet fuels depending on the processes, technological pathways and feedstocks used in the production. These fuels are not treated differently than current fuels from petroleum and can use the airport fuel storage and hydrant systems, saving money on infrastructure costs. The continuous efforts to use existing depreciated equipment and infrastructure or co-processing with other streams can potentially be an approach to reducing capital costs.
A drop-in fuel is deemed to be equivalent to conventional jet fuel and can be used in current engines and infrastructure without any modifications. These requirements are essential for safety, general usage, and reduction of carbon footprint in the aviation industry. The airlines cannot meet their self-imposed targets for reducing GHG emissions based on engine and flight improvements alone—they need SAF. Fuel cost is a significant fraction of operating costs. SAF, even though made from the waste and raw materials that are available for very low cost, requires advanced and expensive technological pathways.
Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Ecosystem Prominent companies that provide sustainable aviation fuel, private and small enterprises, technology providers, distributors/suppliers/retailers, and end customers (airlines and airports) are the key stakeholders in the sustainable aviation fuel market ecosystem. Investors, funders, academic researchers, distributors, service providers, and airport and aerodrome authorities serve as major influencers in the sustainable aviation fuel market. The production of biojet fuel is expected to scale up rapidly in the coming decade due to rapid developments in technology of alternative jet fuel.
The 30% to 50% segment is expected to grow at the highest CAGR during the forecast period. Based on biofuel blending capacity, the sustainable aviation fuel is segmented into below 30%, 30% to 50%, and above 50%. The 30% to 50% segment of the sustainable aviation fuel market is expected to grow at the highest CAGR during the forecast period. The moderate blend capacity, drop-in facility in existing fuel systems, supply logistics infrastructure, and aircraft fleet allow to minimize the overall cost and cater to the volume demands from commercial and military aviation.
Key Market Players Major players operating in the renewable jet fuel market include: Neste (Finland), Fulcrum , ExxonMobil, BioEnergy (US), LanzaTech (US), World Energy (US), TotalEnergy (US), BP, among others. These key players offer various products and services such as biofuel, synthetic fuel, efuels, green fuel, and hydrogen fuel, in order to curb the GHG emissions from the aviation and other industrial sectors such as automotive, marine, chemical etc. The startup companies in the sustainable aviation fuel market include Preem (Sweden), OMV (Austria), Atmosfair (Germany), Wastefuel (US), Prometheus Fuels (US) Red Rocks Biofuel (US), Northwest Advanced Biofuels (Austria).
How Can Global Aviation Reach Net-Zero CO2 Emissions Target By 2050 ? In October 2021, the Global Civil Aviation Industry became one of the first sectors committed to achieving zero CO2 emissions by 2050. In line with the Paris Agreement 1.5 o stretch target. This was an increase in ambition over an earlier long term goal target. The commitment is backed by all the major players in the aviation industry, including airlines, suppliers, airport authorities, management providers & major OEM manufacturers across the supply chain.
The goal will depend on FTOM: a. a transition away from fossil fuels by mid-century, b. research development and deployment of evolutionary and revolutionary airframe and propulsion systems c. continued improvements in operational efficiency, d. investments in high-quality offsets and the use of carbon removal opportunities to address residual CO2 emissions by 2050. Although Net Zero emissions is an ambitious challenge, nevertheless it can be done.
When planning a net zero pathway, it is important to see where you´ve come from and where you are headed to. Aviation has always prioritized improvements in efficiency. It´s almost a business as usual motto. Looking to the past, a flight that you take today would produce less than half the CO2 emissions that same flight would have produced in 1990. These improvements mean that we are already generating today approximately 11 M tonnes/yr less than would have been expected, had some of these improvements not taken place over all these years. Nevertheless, despite all of these expected measures, our global CO2 production will reach 2,000 M tonnes by 2050.
Development of the Analysis Over a period of three years, a panel of seventy experts from across the industry split the task into five working groups: a. b. c. d. e.
Traffic Forecasting Technology Developments Operations and Infrastructure Sustainable Aviation Fuel Offsetting (market-based measures)
These generated many possible outcomes, but the Waypoint 2050 report only presents three final possible most likely scenarios.
These scenarios show that, based on which levers you pull, it can be achieved primarily through advances in technology. Scenario 1 – Pushing technology and operations Scenario 2 – Aggressive sustainable aviation fuel development Scenario 3 – Aspirational and Aggressive technology perspective Scenario 3 considers the possibilities if we would be able to rapidly deploy radical technology options, like hydrogen technology and electric aircraft,
Scenario 2 shows a future where the technologies don´t move beyond evolutionary improvements and conventional models, and most of the emissions reductions must be achieved through the development of SAFs (without these technological breakthroughs having come about completely), And Scenario 1 is a split between Scenario 3 and Scenario 2.
Each of those scenarios uses a small amount of micro-based measures to deal with residual emissions left in 2050. Even if some technologies don´t scale rapidly, it is important to ensure Net Zero is possible anyway. Will aviation need to rely on offsets to meet its goals ?? At the moment, even though efficiency is improving all the time, the only way to significantly deal with CO2 emissions, is to offset that travel.
Aviation is in fact the only sector in the world to have a global market- base measure to deal with the growth of CO2 emissions in the near term. And that´s the CORSIA agreement, reached through the UN specialized agency, ICAO. This is a stop gap short term measure, while new technologies and SAFs scale up. But the time we get to 2050, we are going to need to deal with the CO2 emissions that we have not been able to cut off in the sector, and we are going to need to turn to natural climate solutions and CO2 removal technologies (i.e. carbon capture), which will be a key part of world response to climate change.
Propulsion Alternatives When will passengers fly on hydrogen or electric planes?? We can expect to see some form of electric propulsion, either from batteries or fuel cells in the smallest of aircraft (9-19 seat category), between 2025-2030. A few years later these options may be available in the larger model aircraft in the regional category but there are some significant challenges to overcome both in the technology of the aircraft and the engines themselves, as well as in the distribution and production of green H2. Potentially, the hydrogen
option might be available in the short haul market. The majority of CO2 emissions come from medium and long haul flights, which account for 75% CO2 and which will rely on sustainable aviation fuels for decades to come. It is estimated that emissions from long haul flights occur massively above 3,000 ft and below 51,000 ft. These will need to be addressed regarding NOx emissions and the production of N2O and nitrous oxide N2O4, responsible for smog formation and, in the presence of VOC´s (volatile organic compounds), O3 , ozone, not always environmentally friendly, as it can form HNO3, which generates NO, and in the presence of O2 and sunlight in the lower troposphere produces even more NO2
Today´s SAF comes mainly from waste oils and lipids, and over the next years, other waste sources will start coming onstream; some use of cover crops can start being seen. These are grown in rotation with food crops and help to regenerate the soil in off years. Eventually, SAFs made literally from low carbon electricity will become viable, and take more of an important role as the market matures.
The following graph shows how the different pathways will evolve over the course of the next 30 years. Today, we are already starting to fly on SAF, and small as it may be, it is a solution that is proven to work, reduces CO2 emissions by 80 % compared to other fossil fuels, and will improve potentially 100 % carbon reduction.
It does not require new aircraft or changes to engines, and its scalable. The biggest challenge today is cost. Types of SAFs in the Market Today. The most common type of sustainable aviation fuel commercially available today is that made directly from methanol. N-Octane carbon based fuel is also manufactured, though not in such a large scale at present. ExxonMobil, for example, and Neste, produce CH3=OH, but other chemical companies make SAF from other biofeeds.
The bottom line is that the thermophysical properties of this synthetic fuel, whether they be SAFs or electrofuel, have to be very similar to the current Jet A1 Fuel (premium) (kerosene), the engines normally burn. This is because the engines burning biomass fuel are not required to be any different mechanically from those burning carbon based SAFs, so the heat of combustion, flammability, boiling point, coefficient of heat transfer and net heat rate, in (Btu/kWhr) have to be very close to the fuel being ¨cloned¨. Other types of aviation fuels existent on the market are: kerosene-gasoline mixture (Jet B), aviation gasoline (avgas) and biokerosene, not very different from each other, so the electrofuel, biomass fuel or superfuel cannot be that much off the physical properties of these.
Will flying cost more in the future ?? This is a challenging question to answer, because there are so many variables that go into the price of an air ticket. Efficiency improvements have resulted in significant reductions in the cost of travel and connectivity over the last decades. SAF does cost more than fossil fuel today, up to 2 to 4 times as much, and that could come down as the technologies mature. If you add in the cost of power-to-x carbon fuels, which is expected to increase, the cost of SAF will fall to within the spread of the Jet A1 fuel prices, that the industry has already experienced over the last 20 years.
Aside from the SAF question, there may also be some cost differentials with radical new technologies like hydrogen and electricity, but this may also be offset somewhat with efficiency gains. There are 14 new supplying facilities opening in the next 3 to 4 years, and a number of additional projects producing SAF before 2030. In fact, with commitments from airlines for over US $ 14 billion in off-take agreements, we can expect that over 6.5 % of aviation fuel in 2030 around the world could be SAF. In every Waypoint 2050 scenario, we´re going to need substantial quantities of SAF. Up to 445 million tonnes (555 billion litres) / annum by 2050.
We know where this will come from, and what it will take to make it happen, but can it happen fast enough ? But give past experience with solar and wind sectors, and adding the urgency of the climate GHG acceleration challenge, this is absolutely doable, with most of the action needed in the 2030-2050 period. How much electricity will aviation need in 2050 ?? Aviation will need low carbon electricity for multiple uses during the next decade. - Direct use in aircraft (likely 9-19 seaters) - To make green hydrogen for direct use in some aircraft - As part of the power-to-liquid SAF generation
In all, it is believed this could require between 8 - 18 % of the currently anticipated low-carbon electricity production, across the world in 2050.
How much electricity will aviation need in 2050 (cntd)?
It is likely that aviation demand will increase overall supply of low-carbon generated electricity. Scenario 2 yields the highest demand at 8,540 TWhr/yr during 2030-2050 period
Why should governments support aviation energy transition ? In order to meet these goals, 5,000 – 7,000 new facilities may be needed by 2050. There is some consolidation that could take place on this front, this final number being a minimum. Every country on Earth could become an energy provider, a more de-centralized system than the current 22 countries which produce more than 90 % of oil (and natural gas) today.
Since planes fly everywhere, local opportunities could supply local airports. The projected investment is estimated to be between US $ 1.00 – 1.45 trillion over the next 30 years. When you annualize this figure, its around 6% of annual fossil and gas investment today. The new energy industry will create and sustain up to 14 million jobs, with 90% of these across the supply chain for SAF production. These in addition to the 88 million jobs the airline industry already is credited for (direct and indirect employment).
What support does the industry need in order to make Net-Zero a reality ? - primarily, a staunch endorsement from governments, - the right policy environment, focused on long-term thinking, - smart regulations working with the industry ,
- the need for governments to agree to a long-term climate goal for aviation, at the 41st ICAO Assembly in October 2022, - energy industry needs to get serious about transition away from fossil fuels and work together with the aviation industry , delivering significant quantities of SAF, - research institutions and customers can play a supportive role, - radical technologies providing advances in SAF manufacturing and distribution, - customers can offset their travel through high quality UN backed projects,
- indeed, more and more airlines can work with big corporates to allow them to help in the scale up for SAF, - The FAA in the US and aviation sector in general are committed to pursuing development of secure a global MBM (Marked-Based Measure) for international aviation through ICAO. The global MBM is considered gap filler in the basket of measures that includes improvements in technology, operations and sustainable alternative fuels (SAFs) to achieve carbon neutrality for the world-wide aviation industry.
CONCLUSIONS SAF will not have to wait until 2050. It is already being implemented with over 365,000 commercial flights, using a small proportion of this fuel. More production is coming on stream rapidly now, with 14 new plants in the next few years. Industry´s long-term goal of Net Zero CO2 from aviation globally by 2050 is very challenging, but achievable. We will need a significant scale up continuous supply, of sustainable aviation fuel – up to 445 tonnes / year by 2050. At least a SAF investment of 6% annual oil & gas CAPEX.
New technology, such as electric and hydrogen powered aircraft need accelerated research and development (R & D). Prototypes of this technology could enter service around 2035, particularly on short haul routes. Operations and infrastructure efficiencies are vital for early action to maintain capacity efficiency in the future. Offsetting is important in the short-term, but Net Zero may still be reliant upon some carbon removal options. The future will tell how changes in industry structure, overall aviation activity, and new SAF technologies influence airline efficiency.
As SAF usage consolidates, for example through the full integration of Virgin America’s operations by Alaska, we may expect corresponding changes in the relative fuel efficiency of the remaining carriers, and lower if not negligible CO2 emissions. Likewise, the expanded market share of more efficient single-aisle aircraft types, like the Airbus A320 neo, Boeing 737 MAX, and the Airbus A220 (formerly the Bombardier CSeries CR 100/200/300) regional jets, should improve the fuel efficiency per passenger seat (RPMs /gallon) of more U.S. and international carriers.
According to WBD (World Bank Data) , the world has seen a drammatic decrease in fossil fuel energy consumption since 1970, dropping from a staggering 94,548 MMBBLS/YR (15,031 x 10 ˄ 12 litres/yr) or 3.61 giga tonnes of CO2/ yr to 78,726 MMBBLS/YR (12,516 x 10 ˄ 12 litres/yr) or 3.00 giga tonnes of CO2/yr in 1989, and steadily rising again. Commercial aircraft emitted about 900 million tonnes (0.009 billion tonnes, or 0.009 gigatons(m)) of CO2. Of these emissions, 30% correspond to aviation activities in the US. Hopefully these trends can totally be eradicated and the expected cumulative 2,000 M tonnes by 2050 begin to be tackled then (this will represent around 30% of the total CO2 present in the atmosphere, land and sea).
As the global community emerges from the pandemic and the aviation sector rebounds from the worst crisis in its history, the aviation sector builds on the success of previous sustainability efforts to push towards the third era of air transport: net-zero carbon global connectivity. Scientific consensus shows that the Paris Agreement 1.5 oC goal would greatly reduce the severity of climate change damage. It is imperative that all sections of society and business set course to support achievement of this goal. The collective air transport sector raises its ambition with a new long-term climate commitment.
Recognizing the importance of reducing aviation emissions, the U.S. government set a goal of capping CO2 emissions from U.S. commercial carriers at 2005 levels from 2020 (FAA, 2015). In support of this goal, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) implemented a voluntary system to collect CO2 emissions data from airlines (EASA, FAA). This data will be used to support the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation, or CORSIA, starting in 2021. To achieve the goal of decarbonisation of air transport, the strategies underlined by Waypoint 2050 can be summarized as follows:
Increasing use of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and a transition away from fossil fuels by mid-century as part of a wider aviation energy shift including lowcarbon electricity and green hydrogen. Research, development and deployment of evolutionary and revolutionary airframe and propulsion systems, including the introduction of electric and/or hydrogen powered aircraft. Continued improvements in efficiency of operations and infrastructure across the system, including at airports and air navigation service providers. Investment in high-quality carbon offsets in the nearterm and carbon removals opportunities to address
residual CO2 emissions in the longer-term. In this regard, the industry reaffirms its full support for the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) as an effective transitional measure to stabilize net emissions from international aviation. A vast range of activities are being undertaken to reduce aviation CO2 emissions. Unwavering commitment to respond to the challenge of climate change has not receeded despite the crisis the world has recently faced with the pandemic.
To achieve net-zero, the sector will require a supportive policy framework from governments focused on innovation rather than cost-inefficient instruments such as uncoordinated taxes or restrictive measures, as well as a robust and full commitment from the energy industry and other stakeholders. As support at the global level is critical, ICAO member states are urged to support adoption of a long-term aspirational climate goal at the 41st ICAO Assembly in 2022.
Many long-term solutions require an acceleration of activity in the next decade, particularly the deployment of SAF. Some, such as continued efficiency gains, improvements in air traffic management and the implementation of CORSIA, can provide early climate action whilst longer-term measures are developed. A unflailing commitment to ensuring that aviation in 2050 will be able to meet the needs of over 10 billion passengers, connecting the world safely, securely and importantly, sustainably, is one very important goal of that ICAO Assembly.
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), which is obligated to set an aircraft greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) standard under the Clean Air Act, is expected to propose a rule that, at a minimum, conforms with ICAO’s recommended standard (U.S. EPA, 2016) in the fall of 2022 (Office of Management and Budget). Individuals, companies and organizations are increasingly interested in taking action to reduce the carbon footprint of their air travel. Ideally, airlines would provide fuel efficiency data directly to consumers to help them choose more fuel-efficient flights, and voluntarily choose their preferred fuel.