Over the last 50 years, while energy consumption grew substantially, the world undertook a transition in its usage of fossil fuels, from solids (coal) to liquids (oil) to gases (natural gas). While coal accounted for 39% of all energy consumption in 1965, this share declined to 27% in 2020, being 1980 the year of the transition. In 1980, the world energy consumption was equivalent to 289 x 10 18 Joules. This was a total of 580 exajoules in 2020. This year, we are crossing the 349,847,500 terajoules mark on August 08th, 2022 (11:25 pm CST), the time this report was written. 1 Exajoule = 1018 joules. 1 EJ = 1 000 000 000 000 000 000 J 1 Terajoule = 1012 joules. 1 TJ = 1 000 000 000 000 J
It is difficult to grasp the amount of energy consumed worldwide. To illustrate, the global annual energy consumption corresponds to the energy released from the Hiroshima nuclear bomb every four seconds. A Boeing 737 can cross the Atlantic Ocean on one terajoule. In fact it only requires 11.93 gigaloules. One Space Shuttle lift-off would require 187.5 -192.1 terajoules (for it to rid itself of the Earth´s pull at 3,200 km above, 11.2 km/s escape velocity). Emissions of GHG, particularly those of CO2, can be directly correlated to this energy consumption.
A variation in population size corresponds to a variation in energy consumption at double the rate. That is, for a 20% increase in population size, energy consumption increases by 43.6%; conversely, for a 20% decrease in population size, demand for energy decreases by 44.6%.
In 2014, airlines produced 813.6 million tonnes of CO2. In 2018, commercial aircraft emitted about 900 million tonnes of CO2 globally (IATA, 2019), which is 2.4% of the worldwide total and more than the entire German Ineconomy.2019,this figure as recorded by ATAG grew to 915 million tonnes CO2. The world´s total emissions were 33.9 gigatonnes as of 2014. Global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions rose by 6% in 2021 to 36.3 billion tonnes, their highest ever level, as the world economy rebounded strongly from the Covid-19 crisis and relied heavily on coal to power that growth, according to new IEA analysis released early this year (2022).
This means that, at a total annual global energy (TAGEC) consumption estimated at 580 million terajoules (2021)580 million trillion joules or about 13,865 million tons of oil equivalents (mtoe) - , the world produces an average of 580 x 10 18/36.3 x 10 9=15.98 GJ/tonne (m) CO2 generated, or 4.44 MWhr electricity/tonnes CO2. This is equivalent to a Robert W. Scherer Power Plant at an output factor 59% and capacity factor 21%, assuming a service factor = 35%, or just one (1) of the three remaining units operational. That´s just how much, in analogy, the power output would need to be leveled-out for a typical coal-fired thermoelectric facility to be up to Net Zero´s emission targets by 2050, today.
What´s the world´s population estimate in 2050 ? The world´s population is projected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100. The current world´s population stands at 7.6 billion (2022). CO2 emission levels are expected to be directly in line with or even larger than this growth, in direct proportion to the energy usage. This means that at an expected energy consumption of 832.88 Exa Joules, CO2 emissions could be of the order of 56 - 78.4 Gigatonnes/ yr. With the use of alternative fuels and the Net Zero policies, it is hoped that it shall be less.
Figure 1. Estimated energy consumption over the past 180 years and the forecast for the next 20, against the estimated world population by continent.
Figures 1 & 2 shows the huge increase in world energy consumption that has taken place in roughly the last 200 years. This rise in energy consumption has been primarily from continuous consumption of fossil fuel. With energy consumption rising as rapidly as shown, it is hard to see what is happening when viewed at a macro level. To get a different view, Figure 3 shows the average consumption per person, using world population estimates by Our World in Data. On a per capita basis, there is a huge increment in growth between World War II and 1970. There is also a small rise about the time of World War I, and a new spike in growth recently, as a result of growing coal usage in Asia.
Figure 2. Detailed Analysis of energy use by source between the years 1971 – 2019, showing increased trends in renewable energy use rising.
World per Capita Energy Consumption Let’s look first at Figure 3. Prior to 1900, energy per capita did not rise very much with the addition of coal energy, suggesting that the early use of coal mostly offset other fuel uses, or permitted larger families. There was a small increase in energy consumption per capita during World War I, but a dip during the depression prior to World War II. Between World War II and 1970, there was a huge ramp-up in energy consumption per capita. There are several reasons why this might have happened: - During this period, European countries and Japan were rebuilding after World War II,
Figure 3. Graph showing energy consumption during the last 200 years as a function of energy usage / capita.
- To facilitate purchases both by companies and by consumers, Ike´s Administration encouraged the use of debt to pay for the new goods.
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- Major infrastructure development projects were put into place during this period, including the Eisenhower Interstate System and substantial improvements to the electrical transmission system (TVA).
There was a need to find jobs for returning US soldiers, so that the country would not fall back into the recession it was in prior to World War II.
- The US had a large oil industry that it wanted to develop, in order to provide jobs and tax revenue.
From Figure 2 it is also evident that there is a distinct “bend” in the graph at about 1950, when population starts rising faster, at the same time that energy consumption starts rising vertiginously. Again, we can refer to the 20-43.6 rule, where for a 20% increase in population size, energy consumption increases by 43.6%. Bear in mind that this energy increase is directly proportional to the CO2 emissions being generated by industrial activity, not taking into account the CO2 emitted directly by humans themselves, which was around 43 billion tonnes CO2/ year in 2019. At a world population estimate by 2050 of 9.8 billion, energy consumption is expected to be 832.88 Exa Joules.
A mind-boggling change: the world population today is 1,860 times the size of what it was 12,000 years ago when the world population was around 4 million – half of the current population of London today –. What is striking about this, is of course that almost all of this growth happened just very recently. Historical demographers estimate that around the year 1800 the world population was only around 1 billion people. This implies that on average the population grew very slowly over this long period from 10,000 BC to 1700 (by 0.04% annually); from the year 1800-on it increased seven-fold. Since 1970, the rate of increase in world population has declined.
In fact, after about 1800, demographic growth accelerated at a steady rate to a peak of 2.09% annually during the 1967–1969 period, but since then, due to the worldwide collapse of the total fertility rate, this rate has declined to 1.05% as of 2020. CO2 Emissions per Capita Energy use and CO2 emissions are rising as fast as GDP growth. It´s impossible to decouple these trends. Figure 4 illustrates what happens when the production of goods and services is increasingly outsourced to Asia, where coal is used as the primary fuel. Emissions tend to rise there, even if they remain flat in other countries.
Figure 4. CO2 emissions by the three major areas described (SE Asia, Middle East, others), based on BP Statistical Data.
These emissions are not on a per-capita basis, only /area. If we compare the growth of CO2 emissions and the growth of energy use, both on a per capita basis (Figure 5), we see that the CO2 emissions grew more slowly than energy consumption in the 1970 to 1990 period, so the lines increasingly diverge. This divergence appears to result from the changing fuel mix (more nuclear and more natural gas, relative to coal) during that same period. The petroleum industry directly contributed about 8% (2.7 BT) out of a total of 32.8 BT in 2017, also contributing at least 79 MTonnes of methane (2.4 BT CO2 - equivalent) that same year.
Figure 5. Per capita energy consumption and CO2 emissions, based on BP Statistical Data
Since 2000, the two lines are approximately parallel, indicating no further CO2 savings given the greater use of coal again. Wind and solar contributions are not large enough to make an appreciable difference in CO2 levels. Of course other renewable technologies we recently looked at, like power-to-x fuels, sustainable aviation fuels, biofuels, hydrogen, ammonia and electricity do not even appear on this chart as making any contribution on a significant scale, and that´s because all of the new technologies have been developing since 2012 or later (within this last decade). That´s why coal will always be a ¨hard core fuel¨, since we will always know that it is reliable (though it doesn´t meet the long-term energy Net Zero 2050 CO2 commitment goals.
CONCLUSIONS - Global energy consumption is only going up. This growth is out of control and inexorably out-of-phase with environmental policies. - Since 2000, global energy consumption has increased by about a third (33%) and is projected to continue to grow in the foreseeable future. - Global energy demand grew by 2.9% in 2018 and in a business as usual scenario, by 2040 global energy consumption will reach 740 million terajoulesequivalent to an additional 30 percent growth margin. - From 2000 to 2040, this will amount to a 77 percent increase in the total global energy consumption, reaching a whooping 99% increase in 2050 of 833 EJ.
Oil, coal, and gas still power the world 83 percent of the energy we use comes from fossil fuels. Oil is the biggest energy source followed by coal and natural gas. This makes green energy innovation absolutely essential. For now, most of the increase in global energy consumption will be covered by burning more coal and gas. That's not good. It emits enourmous amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere. And it makes it all the less likely that the Net Zero 2050 long-term goals for zero carbon emissions and the Paris Agreement 1.5 ° commitments can be achieved.
As we speak, more than 25.88 Gigatonnes of CO2 have been released into the atmosphere this year, so around 39.21 Gigatonnes CO2 are expected at the end of this year (2022). The temperature (average) around the world is 14.96 °C, and increasing by 10 -8 °C every ten seconds, this means one degree °C every 3 years. Can we reverse this trend ?? Will we reverse this trend ?? Renewable energy is on the rise, but too slowly. Between 2011 and 2030 renewable energy is expected to grow from 2.0 – 6.5 % of global primary energy use. The short-term goals set by the ICAO 41st Assembly must be adopted at all costs to meet Net Zero 2050 milestones.
The world must completely transform the global energy system. But this projected increase in the use of renewable energy is not even enough to cover for the global increase in total energy world demand. In 2018, energy from renewable sources grew by 14.5% but still only accounted for about a-third of the total increase in use of renewable energy. Renewable capacity is expected to further increase over 8% in 2022, reaching almost 320 GW/yr. IRENA foresees 78,700 TWhr generation by 2050 in its scenario, and more than half of total final energy (world) consumption (TFEC).
It’s possible: Solar energy could power the world. Easily. In six months the Earth absorbs the same amount of energy from the sun as that which is obtained from all of the Earth's non-renewable resources put together (coal, oil, natural gas, and uranium) - and this includes nonrenewable sources not yet exploited! In less than 80 minutes, solar energy is equivalent to the total world energy use for a full year´s worth of strikes on Earth, meaning that the sun could power the world 6,570 times. This however, implies full output, capacity and service factors, and 100 % availability, in theory feasible but practically almost impossible to achieve.
Worldwide carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels were at 38 Gigatonnes in 2019. In view of contemporary energy policy of countries the IEA expects that worldwide energy consumption in 2040 will have increased more than 25% and that the goal, set in the Paris Agreement to limit climate change, will not nearly be reached. Net Zero Emissions Scenario (NZE) reaches global net zero CO2 emissions by 2050. Temperature will peak at 1.7 °C by 2050 and decline to 1.4 °C by 2100. In 2050 half of energy consumption will be electricity, accounted for nearly 70% by wind and solar PV (photovoltaics), about 20% along with other renewable sources and most of the remainder from nuclear power, 300 – 330 TWhr (for 2022).
The other half is on biomass, SAFs (sustainable aviation fuels), power-to-x fuels, superfuels, gas and oil with CCS (carbon capture and storage) or non-energetic (asphalt, petrochemicals). Use of coal falls down to 10%, oil 25% & gas 45%. Emissions by the transport sector drop 90%, the remainder mainly caused by heavy trucks, shipping & Investingaviation. in new fossil fuels is no longer necessary now (2021). Annual energy investment is expected to increase from just over $2 trillion worldwide on average over the past five years to nearly $5 trillion by 2030 and to $4.5 trillion by 2050. The lion´s share of this money will be spent on generating, storing, distributing electricity and electrical end-user equipment (i.e. heat pumps,vehicles).
There is a growing mismatch between societal demands for action on climate change and the actual pace of progress, with energy demand and carbon emissions growing at their fastest rate for years. The world is on an unsustainable path. WE must take action to correct this, if not for us, then for our children. We must go back and take action on abiding by climate and environmental protection on the planet, while there is still a planet to get back to. Remember the ancient saying: We do not inherit the Earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children
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