Energy modelling in GaBi PE INTERNATIONAL AG
Agenda
1. Overview electricity model 2. Individual modules – energy carriers
3. Individual modules – energy conversion
4. Electricity mixes
Overview electricity model
3
Overview electricity model Environmental assessment of energy supply chains Extraction & Production
Transport
Conversion
Transmission & Distribution
4
Overview electricity model Energy systems / generic modelling
How do we handle large amounts of data and generate consistent datasets?
Challenge
Source: http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/
To provide a comprehensive range of LCI data sets, a large amount of data has to be handled
Development of a model, which allows the adaptation to various country- and technology- specific boundary conditions
Generic, parameterized, adaptable models Approach
5
Overview electricity model Energy generation (fossil) - example Energy Conversion Unit: Conversion parameter
Fuel parameter
• Plant type (direct, CHP etc) • Combustion technology • Efficiency • Type of cooling system • Flue gas cleaning technologies • Allocation method
LCI • Calorific value • Carbon content • Sulphur content • etc.
• Auxiliary materials • Emissions (CO2, NOx) • Waste heat
6
Overview electricity model Parameterized models – electricity grid mix Hard coal supply
Hard coal power plant
Lignite supply
Lignite
Supply of coal gases
Coal gases
Natural gas supply
Natural Gas
HFO supply
Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO)
Biomass supply
Biomass power plant
Biogas supply
Biogas power plant
Waste supply
Waste incineration plant
Uranium supply
Nuclear power plant
Power Grid Mix
Transmission
Hydropower plant Wind Converter Photovoltaic units
7
Overview electricity model Parameterized models – electricity grid mix System boundary Imported Electricity
Transports Transport (Country A) Transport Country An
Mix
Natural Gas Natural GasA) (Country Natural Gas (Country A) Country A
Transports Transport (Country A) Transport Country An
Mix
..
Energy carrier production
Hard coal power plant
..
Energy carrier transport and mix
Natural gas power plant
Transmission
Hard coal Hard coal A) (Country Hard coalA) (Country Country A
..
Electricity conversion (production & transmission)
8
Overview electricity model Conclusions • Generic models offer the adaptability to various country and boundary conditions micro, macro and global level
• Results are comparable due to consistent approach and system boundaries • Allows comprehensive LCI, LCIA, carbon footprint and water footprint analysis • Complex models with a large amount of data, but reduced number of key parameters are easy to manage and adapt
• High quality data with acceptable time effort reduces costs • Supports scenario modeling and outlooks • Creating, maintaining and updating the GaBi databases since 1990
9
Individual modules – energy carriers 10
Individual modules – energy carriers Crude oil & natural gas supply chain Crude oil / natural gas production
Crude oil / natural gas transport
Crude oil / natural gas consumption mix
NG
Crude oil
Crude oil refining (downstream) Refinery products 11
Individual modules – energy carriers Crude oil & natural gas - production technologies Crude oil production technologies
Conventional crude oil production technologies (onshore, offshore)
Primary crude oil production Secondary crude oil production
Unconventional crude oil production technologies (onshore)
Oil sands (in-situ, open-pit)
Oil shale (in-situ, open-pit, underground)
Tertiary crude oil production (EOR)
Steam injection Nitrogen injection CO2-Injection Natural gas injection Solvent injection
12
Individual modules – energy carriers Crude oil production – GaBi screenshot Ressources
Thermal energy
Electrical energy
Flaring and venting
Main unit process (production and processing) Waste water and waste
Mechanical energy
13
Individual modules – energy carriers Crude oil & natural gas production – model parameters • Calculation of energy consumption depending on: • • • • • •
Reservoir depth Water-oil-ratio (at well) Steam-oil-ratio and steam quality (if any) Amount of injected media (water, steam, etc.) Efficiency (pumps, generators etc.) Quality of natural gas (concentration of water, H2S, CO2)
• Data from literature for: • • • • •
Flaring and venting rates Solid waste Waste water Share of onshore-/ offshore-production Produced amount of crude oil/ natural gas/ NGL (allocation according to net calorific value)
14
Individual modules – energy carriers Crude oil & natural gas production – model parameters • Technology used (primary, secondary, tertiary production)
• Energy supply (source / efficiency / type of conversion) • Share of produced crude oil, natural gas and NGL • Drilling / reservoir depth • Water-oil ratio • Flaring and venting rates
• Share of onshore / offshore production
15
Individual modules – energy carriers Crude oil & natural gas supply chain Crude oil / natural gas production
Crude oil / natural gas transport
Crude oil / natural gas consumption mix
NG
Crude oil
Crude oil refining (downstream) Refinery products 16
Individual modules – energy carriers Crude oil consumption mix – GaBi screenshot
International transportation
Countryspecific production
… … …
… … …
Parameterized mixing process
National transportation
… … …
17
Individual modules – energy carriers Crude oil & natural gas consumption mix – key parameters • Consumption mix by country of origin • Transport type (pipeline, tanker, LNG tanker) • Transport distances
• Distribution losses • Efficiency and distances between compressor stations (pipeline) • Energy supply of compressors (pipeline)
18
Individual modules – energy carriers Crude oil & natural gas consumption mix - main data sources • Mix information based on International Energy Agency (IEA) statistics
• Transport distance from literature and web calculators • Tanker vessel and pipeline models in GaBi
19
Individual modules – energy carriers Crude oil & natural gas supply chain Crude oil / natural gas production
Crude oil / natural gas transport
Crude oil / natural gas consumption mix
NG
Crude oil
Crude oil refining (downstream) Refinery products 20
Individual modules – energy carriers Crude oil based fuels – refinery system boundary Inputs and outputs Crude oil Natural gas (for energy supply/ H2 production) Electricity
Crude oil refining
Products
Emissions
Methanol / Ethanol (octane number increase)
Waste water
Water
Hydrogen
21
Individual modules – energy carriers Crude oil based fuels – refinery system boundary • Petroleum refineries are complex plants. • The combination and sequence of the processes is usually very specific to the characteristics of the crude oil and the products to be manufactured.
• Due to the interlinkages within the refinery, all refinery products have to be considered. • What technologies and processes are used within the refinery? • Possible approaches regarding level of detail of analysis: • Refinery as black box model • Detailed refinery analysis (every single process) • Hybrid approach
• Level of detail in dependency of scope, level of data availability, etc. Every refinery is individual
22
Individual modules – energy carriers Crude oil based fuels – Refinery GaBi screenshot
Inputs
Main unit process – mass balance
Outputs
23
Individual modules – energy carriers Crude oil based fuels – Refinery GaBi screenshot
Inputs
Outputs
Complex models for the calculation of environmental profiles can be set up and managed
24
Individual modules – energy carriers Crude oil based fuels – refinery approach • Method: • Detailed modeling of the refinery mass and energy balance • Emissions of the total refinery (black box) are allocated to the products • But allocation factors are modeled precise (due to detailed mass & energy balance)
• Consequence: • Clear, relatively precise, but no environmental analysis of single processes possible
• Which data are required? • • • •
Input and output flows of refinery Output spectrum, i.e. 20% diesel, 10% naphtha, 30% gasoline, 2% refinery gas,… Amount of purchased energy from external sources (outside refinery) Process capacities (incl. utilization) of each process detailed flow chart including figures to model the mass balance • Environmental impacts, i.e. emissions of the whole refinery (black box, bubble) • Feedstock and product properties (net calorific value, sulphur content,…) • Energy demand of each single process
25
Individual modules – energy conversion 26
Individual modules – energy conversion Hard coal power plant Energy Conversion Unit: Conversion parameter
Fuel parameter
• Plant type (direct, CHP etc) • Combustion technology • Efficiency • Type of cooling system • Flue gas cleaning technologies • Allocation method
LCI • Calorific value • Carbon content • Sulphur content • etc.
• Auxiliary materials • Emissions (CO2, NOx) • Waste heat
27
Individual modules – energy conversion Hard coal power plant Basis for all combustion models
• Efficiency, share of CHP/direct, own consumption • Data is calculated based on statistics and directly used in the power plant models. Data sources: • International Energy Agency (IEA), Electricity Information, Paris, France • International Energy Agency (IEA), Energy Statistics of Non-OECD Countries, Paris, France • International Energy Agency (IEA), Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries, Paris, France
• Emissions • Relevant emissions (CO2, CO, NOX, SO2, dust, NMVOC, N2O, CH4, Dioxin) are derived country-
specific from literature/databases. Data is used directly and partly indirectly (used to determine e.g. efficiency for desulphurization or dedusting in the model. Data sources:
• European Environment Agency (EEA): Plant-by-Plant emissions of SO2, NOX and dust and energy input to large combustion plants
• National Inventory reports (CO2, CH4, N2O) • For complete list compare provided Excel file
28
Individual modules – energy conversion Hard coal power plant Basis for all combustion models
• Emissions • Other emissions like heavy metals, consumption of air, water in flue gas etc. are calculated based on combustion calculation and fuel properties:
• F. Brandt: Brennstoffe und Verbrennungsrechnung, 2. Auflage, 1991 • DGMK - Deutsche wissenschaftliche Gesellschaft für Erdöl, Erdgas und Kohle e.V.Ansatzpunkte und Poteniale zur Minderung des Treibhauseffekts aus Sicht der fossilen Energieträger - Forschungsbericht
• EIA - Energy Information Administration (US Energy department): C.5 Gross Heat Content of Dry Natural Gas Production, 1980-2004 & C.3 Gross Heat Content of Crude Oil, 1980-2003, 2005 (Oil & gas)
• 20 additional literature sources
• Energy input • Input of energy carriers is calculated based on efficiency, allocation and NCV of energy carrier
• Waste/secondary products (bottom ash, fly ash, gypsum etc.) • Calculation based on fuel properties and combustion calculation (transfer coefficients)
29
Individual modules – energy conversion Hydro power plant • Run-of-river plants • • • •
Production of base load electricity from hydropower Efficiency η ≈ 93 % Low-pressure plant (low head) Kaplan-turbines
• Storage plants • • • •
Production of average and peak load electricity from hydropower Efficiency η ≈ 85 % Medium- or high-pressure plant (medium or high head) Two types of dams
• Concrete dam • Earth-/rockfill dam • Francis-turbines (medium or high head), Pelton-turbines (high head)
30
Individual modules – energy conversion Hydro power plant • Pumped storage plants • • • •
Efficiency η ≈ 75 % (storage of base load energy) Often combined with storage plants (pumped-storage plants with natural inflow) Medium- or high-pressure plant (medium or high head) Two types of dams
• Concrete dam • Earth-/rockfill dam • Francis-turbines (medium or high head), Pelton-turbines (high head), combined with pumps
31
Individual modules – energy conversion Hydro power plant • Greenhouse gas emissions during the operation of run-of-river, storage and pumpedstorage plants • As a result of degradation of biomass in the dammed water depending on • Climatic boundary conditions • Climatic cold and moderate regions: Increasing CO2-emissions from aerobic degradation of biomass in the first years of operation, then temporary decreasing within the first 10 years of operation
• Climatic tropical regions: Increasing CH4-emissions from anaerobic degradation of biomass in the first years then slower temporary decreasing, which can be longer than the first 10 years of operation
• Vegetal boundary conditions (amount of inundated biomass) • Sub polar lea, Cultivated land, Steppe, Boreal forest, Rain forest • Used values of emissions are arithmetic mean values over 100 years of operation and are based on gross greenhouse gas emissions (problem of absorbed CO2 from atmosphere), net emissions are estimated to be 30 – 50 % lower
• Greenhouse gas emissions of run-of-river plants are minimal since the water is not stored for a long time
32
Individual modules – energy conversion Hydro power plant • Input options of the hydro power LCA-models • • • • • • •
Country-specific distribution of electricity production by hydropower [%] Country-specific relation between consumed electricity and generated electricity by pumpedstorage [kWh/kWh] Country-specific greenhouse gas emissions from operation [kg CO2 eq. / kWh] Plant-specific efficiency [%] Country-specific plant life span and life spans of components [a] Country-specific share of concrete dams as a part of storage and pumped storage plants [%]
33
Individual modules – energy conversion Wind power plant • Data Source: Vestas EPD, 2006 for 1,65 MW turbine. • Wind Park with 182 turbines including infrastructure (cables, transformer station) • Manufacturing considered main components (Foundation, Tower, Nacelle Rotor), transports included
• Use phase: full load hours determined by Power produced from wind from IEA statistics divided by installed capacity from World Wind report
• Maintenance considered according to Vestas data • End-of-Life: recycling potential for metals, incineration of polymers, foundation not recycled, inert materials to landfill
34
Electricity mixes
35
Electricity mixes Electricity consumption mix – GaBi screenshot Imports Energy carrier supply and processing
Power plants
Parameter ized mixing process
Product output
Auxiliary materials
36
Electricity mixes Modelling of electricity consumption mixes
37
Electricity mixes Used data - basis for all electricity mixes • Energy mix, net losses, imports (annual average) • International Energy Agency (IEA), Electricity Information, Paris, France • International Energy Agency (IEA), Energy Statistics of Non-OECD Countries, •
Paris, France International Energy Agency (IEA), Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries, Paris, France
• Eurostat: Eurostat Energy Statistics – imports (by country of origin) – electricity – annual data
• Infrastructure • FFE München: Ganzheitliche energetische Bilanzierung
38
Contact Oliver Schuller (Dr.-Ing.) Principal Consultant and Team Lead “Oil & Gas” and “Energy & Utilities” PE INTERNATIONAL Hauptstrasse 111-113 70771 Leinfelden-Echterdingen GERMANY Phone: Fax:
+49 - 711 341817 20 +49 - 711 341817 25
E-Mail: o.schuller@pe-international.com Internet: www.pe-international.com
39