Quick-but-Clean? A Screening LCA Tool Using PERT Estimates to Incorporate Uncertainty

Quick-but-Clean? A Screening LCA Tool Using PERT Estimates to Incorporate Uncertainty Debbie Kalish Program Manager, Ingersoll Rand Center for Energy Efficiency & Sustainability

Christoph Koffler, PhD Technical Director PE International, Inc.

Ingersoll Rand Overview • A $14 billion diversified industrial company • Publicly-held; NYSE:IR • More than 52,000 employees worldwide in 54 countries • Operations in every major geographic region • Strategic brands are #1 or #2 in their markets • Products and services for commercial, industrial and residential markets

Advancing the Quality of Life We advance the quality of life by creating and sustaining safe, comfortable and efficient environments addressing the world’s growing critical needs for • Clean and comfortable air • Secure homes and buildings • Safe and fresh food

• Energy efficiency • Sustainable business practices

A World of Sustainable Progress and Enduring Results

Why Create a Screening LCA? • Desire life cycle thinking in our New Product Development (NPD) process

• We need a tool that can estimate environmental burden and perform scenario analyses that is: – Easy to use – Cost effective – Inputs can be gathered quickly

– Uses minimal resources – Is robust – Reproducible

Model structure & results Christoph Koffler, PhD – PE INTERNATIONAL

Quick-but-Clean?

LCA model

Product

Number

Steel

Unalloyed

Non-ferrous

Stainless

Aluminum

Castings

Copper

Ferrous

Weight [lb]

Polymers

Non-ferrous

Blow molding [lb]

Bar [lb]

Misc [lb]

Bar [lb]

Fin Stock [lb]

Iron [lb]

Aluminum [lb]

Compressio n molding [lb]

Coil [lb]

Sheet [lb]

Extrusion [lb]

Industrial tube [lb]

Steel [lb]

Brass [lb]

Extrusion [lb]

Plate [lb]

Fin stock [lb]

Technical tube [lb]

Titanium [lb]

Sheet [lb]

Sheet [lb]

Brass extrusion [lb]

Zinc [lb]

Slit coil [lb]

Tube [lb]

Power storage

Chemicals

Operating materials

Paints & Coatings

Battery

Electronics

Battery [lb]

LCD [in2]

Use phase

Energy

Consumabl es

Electrodeposition [ft2]

Lead-acid

PWB [in2]

Diesel [gal]

Lubricant [lb]

CO [lb]

R134a

Powder coating [ft2]

Li-Ion

Wiring [lb]

Gasoline [gal]

Refrigerant [lb]

HC [lb]

Injection molding [lb]

R404a

Spray coating [ft2]

Rubber [lb]

R410a

Desiccants [lb]

Lubricants [lb]

Refrigerant

Refrigerant [lb]

Natural gas [mmBTU]

NO [lb]

Power [kWh]

NO2 [lb]

LPG [gal]

NOx [lb]

Structural [lb]

Tube [lb]

Direct emissions

PM unspec. [lb]

• 7 material groups based on IR BOM taxonomy & available LCI data

PM10 [lb]

PM2.5 [lb]

• Sum of material weights is scaled to match product weight • Use phase with energy & consumables consumption & direct emissions • Calculation of GWP, AP, EP, ODP, and SFP (TRACI 2.0)

AP42 Natural gas (2-stroke lean)

CNG (4stroke lean)

CNG (4stroke rich)

Gasoline (uncontroll ed industrial)

Diesel (uncontroll ed industrial)

LPG

Quick-but-Clean?

‘Castings / Non-ferrous / Aluminum’

Quick-but-Clean?

Model parameterization parameter

best case

most likely

worst case

recycled content

100%

50%

0%

material loss during manufacturing

0.2%

6.5%

20%

2%

65%(1)

80%(2)

landfilled in EoL (1) McMillan et al. 2012 (2) EPA 2010

• Total of 81 parameters / 243 individual parameter values for model calibration • All parameter values reviewed with various Ingersoll Rand brands

• Data gaps filled with literature values

Quick-but-Clean?

Calculation of results

Impact category indicator result

worst case

worst case (16.67%)

PERT estimate

most likely (66.67%)

best case

best case (16.67%)

?

Quick-but-Clean?

The PERT distribution • beta distribution

• first developed by the U.S. Navy • min / max / most likely • stronger tendency towards the most likely value than the triangular distribution đ?’‡ đ?’™ =đ?‘˛âˆ— đ?’™âˆ’đ?’‚

đ?œś

∗

(đ?’ƒ − đ?’™)đ?œˇ

• PERT estimate = (best + 4 x most likely + worst) / 6

Quick-but-Clean?

Cradle-to-grave GWP per unit of material class

Quick-but-Clean PE Global LCIA Expert Survey 2012 • Establish weighting factors for 13 impact categories • 660 LCA experts worldwide contacted via email

• 245 online questionnaires completed (37%) APAC RER RNA RAF RLA

Quick-but-Clean?

Cradle-to-grave single score per unit of material class

Quick-but-Clean?

Model validation: no use phase burden Screening tool significantly overshoots ďƒ check modeling choices & data

Steelcraft Steel Door

Quick-but-Clean?

Model validation: moderate use phase burden Screening tool much less detailed than benchmark ďƒ underestimation

IR Cordless Assembly Screwdriver Benchmark based on GaBi DB 2006 ďƒ higher ODP values in electricity datasets

Quick-but-Clean?

Model validation: high use phase burden Dominated by copper tubes ďƒ tool assumes lower recycling rate

Trane Chiller Use phase doesn’t add any significant ODP emissions

Quick-but-Clean?

Conclusions Quick, …

• customized, intuitive, non-expert tool

• minimizes data collection & analysis costs … but clean!

• PERT single score is a robust estimate • use phase energy consumption offsets uncertainty from manufacturing • display of upper & lower limits improves decision making

Quick-but-Clean!

Outlook • road test tool with various brands / product lines

• review and refine model parameterization

• establish it as core DfE tool in NPD process

To be continued…

Deborah Kalish – Ingersoll Rand Christoph Koffler – PE INTERNATIONAL