Cataclysm 90bc extract

Contents

Introduction – the Prophetic Polybius vii Chapter 1

Prelude to Cataclysmic Adjustment

1

Chapter 2

The Rivals

24

Chapter 3

The State of Italy

40

Chapter 4

Livius Drusus, the Failed Reformer

52

Chapter 5

The Breaking Storm

64

Chapter 6

90 bc – Backs to the Wall

78

Chapter 7

Surrender – an Odd Way to Win

94

Chapter 8

Sulla’s March on Rome – this Changes Everything

110

Chapter 9

Sulla’s Return – Fighting for Rome

128

Chapter 10

Terror and Settlement

149

Epilogue – From Sulla to Caesar 160 Notes 167 Index 171

Italy circa 90 bc.

Introduction – the Prophetic Polybius

T

his book is a study of some very odd events – of nations so desperate to give up their independence that they fought a war against the state that refused to take it; of the Roman Republic losing that war – itself a rarity – then winning by giving their enemies what they wanted.

So the only instance in history of the opposite of a war of independence, was also one of the few cases where surrender brought victory to the losing side. It is also a study of how one war can create the conditions for the next and then merge almost seamlessly into it. In such topsy-turvy circumstances it is appropriate to start with a short text of whatever is the opposite of history. This was written by Polybius, the Greek diplomat and soldier, who describes – pretty accurately – events as they happened between thirty and one hundred years in his future.

Aristocracy by its very nature degenerates into oligarchy. Then the common people become infuriated with this government and take revenge on it for its unjust rule. So we get the development of democracy. In due course the permissiveness and lawlessness of this type of government degenerates into mob-rule, and the cycle is complete.

Polybius, Histories 6.3 Thus Polybius saw societies as revolving through six stages – from anarchy to monarchy, through monarchy to tyranny, from tyranny to aristocracy, from aristocracy to oligarchy, and from oligarchy to democracy. Then from democracy to anarchy and round and around again. Writing in the late second century bc, at a time when Rome was the dominant power in the Mediterranean, Polybius believed that one of the reasons for Rome’s success was the stability of the political system. This, he opined, combined the best parts of the three best forms of government. Thus:

viii Cataclysm 90 bc

If one focussed on the power of the consuls, the constitution seemed completely monarchical and biased towards royalty. Again, if one concentrated on the senate it seemed aristocratic, and when one looked at the power of the common people [Rome] clearly appeared to be a democracy.

Polybius, Histories 6.11 The consuls provided the monarchical element, but they were prevented from becoming tyrants by the senate, which represented the aristocratic element. The senate was prevented from becoming oligarchical by the people, whose democracy was prevented from degenerating into mob rule by the monarchical and aristocratic elements, Yet even though this constitution was able to slow the cycle of human governance, Polybius was too cynical (or realistic) to believe that the process could altogether be stopped.

The truth of what I have just said will be quite clear to anyone who pays attention … each form [of government] naturally arises and develops.

One can see where, when, and how the growth, peak, change, and end of each form develops. And I believe that, above all, this formula can be successfully applied to the Roman constitution.

Polybius, Histories 6.3 For much of his mini-treatise of the Roman Republic, Polybius lauds the balance of the elements in the Rome of his day. He remarks how the aristocracy competed among each other to be of service to the state, how the consuls were chosen to lead the armies of Rome, and how the Roman people themselves were pious, honourable and public-spirited. Rome was in control of the Mediterranean world, and more importantly, Rome was in control of itself. Yet, in these glory days of the Roman Republic Polybius looked ahead.

He saw Rome’s government degenerating, the system going out of balance and collapsing into chaos and near-anarchy. In short, he foresaw the century to come.

I think it is pretty clear what is going to happen next. When a state endures great danger and subsequently rises to supremacy and

Introduction – the Prophetic Polybius ix

uncontested sovereignty, prosperity will become enduring. Under its influence, lifestyles will become more extravagant and the citizens will compete more fiercely than they should for public office and all that goes with it. For as degeneration begins, the first signs of the change for the worse be the coveting of office and the belief that obscurity is disgraceful.

Polybius, Histories 6.67 With the advantage of hindsight, this book will describe the unfolding of the developments that Polybius predicted with such foresight. It will also concentrate on something that Polybius, the soldier and statesman, took so much for granted that he did not bother to describe it – the role of the army.

For when Polybius talks of ‘the people’ he means the people of the Roman Republic, or of the Greek city-states that he knew. For Polybius the ‘people’ in these states were not the slaves, the children or the womenfolk. They were not even the voters, though voting was an important function of ‘the people’.

Above all, the people were the army. In the Greece that Polybius knew, and in the Rome of his day, the army was made up of citizens under arms. Many of these citizens enrolled in the levy at the start of the campaigning season in the expectation that they would go home to their family farms or businesses at the end of the year. When ‘the people’ of such a state become disaffected, the result is not public demonstrations and the hurling of brickbats, or even rioting, which might be controlled by calling in the army. When the army is the people, things much more substantial than brickbats are thrown, and they are thrown with organized professionalism – and since they are the army, the only thing that can stop them is another army.

The people will take the initiative, firstly when they feel aggrieved by individuals who have shown egregious covetousness, and secondly when they are puffed up by the flattery of those looking to hold office.

Then, roused to fury, and their decisions ruled by emotion, they will no longer consent to obey or even to be the equals of their rulers.

Polybius, ibid.

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And this is what happened in the early first century. Threatened by the migrating Cimbric hordes, Rome was indeed in great danger. This was overcome by a combination of good fortune and great generalship. However, the state that had overcome this peril was already sick, and the subsequent peace led – as Polybius had predicted a generation before – to vicious competition for public office. The aristocracy of the senate had already begun the slide to oligarchy in Polybius’ day, and what was once the most open and upwardly mobile of all ancient societies had become exclusionary and self-interested. This trend continued, and provoked the cataclysmic explosion of 91 bc. Yet, even when Roman backs were to the wall and the survival of the state itself in doubt, things could still get worse.

Polybius saw developments moving only in one direction. Oligarchies do not reform and become aristocracies once more, and the Roman aristocracy obediently followed form. And the people responded on cue. Alienated from a corrupted political process, the people took matters into their own hands. And since the people in question were the toughest, most merciless soldiers in the known world, when ‘roused to fury and their decisions ruled by passion’ the result was never going to be pretty. By the time the dust had more or less settled in 81 bc, Rome’s oligarchical senatorial class had quite literally been more than decimated. What staggered from the wreckage of the Roman constitution had still the habits of the Roman Republic, but the system was irreparably damaged and its leaders traumatized.

The name will be the fairest of all, a free democracy, but its nature will be changed to the worst thing of all – mob rule.

Polybius, ibid.

After 81 bc Rome constantly tottered on the brink of military anarchy, and in 49 bc it fell off the edge altogether when Caesar led his army across the Rubicon. Assassinations, purges, and civil wars followed thick and fast, until from the chaos was produced Augustus – Rome’s first emperor and an undoubted autocrat. The Polybian cycle had come the full circle as its author had predicted. Given the tens of thousands that perished in the process, it is unlikely that Polybius would have taken much satisfaction in bring proven right.

Introduction – the Prophetic Polybius xi

The above analysis is of necessity abbreviated and simplistic, but accurate.

It provides a skeleton that this book will flesh out, so that the events of 91–81 bc can be seen not as a series of unrelated convulsions but as the violent resolution of a political process that eventually destroyed the Roman Republic.