APRIL 2014 – BRAZIL CROP SURVEY UPDATE Dear Clients: We have concluded our second 2014/15 Brazil crop survey (the first one was in Dec 2013). Heat and drought in some parts of the coffee-producing areas in the first months of 2014 have negatively affected the bean formation stage of crop development. We have revised down our 2014/15 arabica estimate from 34.6 mio bags to 28.4 mio bags, a drop in production potential of 18%. We have revised up our conillon estimate from 16.1 to 17.1 mio bags due to improved expectations of yield. Our new 2014/15 Brazil crop estimate is 45.5 mio bags. We expect an 11 mio bag deficit in the coffee market in 2014/15. This follows four years of surplus or balance, with an accumulated surplus of 17 mio bags from 2010/11 to 2013/14. Global Coffee Fundamentals Charts:
The recent unprecedented weather has affected both the 2014/15 and the 2015/16 crops. Even under the most optimistic scenario for the 2015/16 Brazil crop, we expect a second consecutive coffee market deficit in that season.
Sincerely Volcafe Ltd.
VOLCAFE LTD MEMBER OF ED&F MAN COFFEE DIVISION Technoparkstrasse 7, CH-8406 Winterthur Mail: P.O.Box 2514, CH-8401 Winterthur Telephone +41 (0)52 264 94 94 / Telefax +41 (0)52 264 94 00 E-Mail volcafe@volcafe.ch / Internet www.volcafe.com V.A.T. CHE-111.738.369 MWST