THE ENROLLMENT CLIFF

TAKING THE PULSE OF COLLEGE ENROLLMENT: WHERE HAVE ALL THE STUDENTS GONE?

by Rachel Greene

In 2025, universities and colleges across the nation are expected to see a sharp decrease in enrollment, coined “the enrollment cliff” by many in higher education. This seemingly inevitable crisis did not appear out of thin air but is a delayed symptom of the “birth dearth,” the sharp decrease in birth rates that followed the 2008 recession. To further exacerbate this issue, the COVID-19 pandemic took a toll on institutions, many of whom are still actively working to recover. Now, as they climb out of the hole the pandemic left them in, they face the challenge of keeping their balance on the edge of the enrollment cliff.

The number of college-aged students is not the only reason that institutions are facing this enrollment crisis. Out of the smaller pool of students who exist despite the birth dearth, many of them will still choose to forego college. Why? According to Education Dynamics, there has been a 21% decrease in the number of individuals showing a high degree of confidence in higher education since 2015. At the forefront of prospective college students’ decision-making is the question of the real value of a college degree, especially when compared to the rising costs associated with attending a four-year institution. This failure to see value in a college degree, coupled with concerns about postgraduate job outcomes and, consequently, the ability to pay off student loan debt, has led to the formation of the “demand cliff,” the sharp decrease in 18- to 24-year-olds choosing to attend college.

THE INSTITUTIONAL APPROACH: ADAPTING TO TODAY’S STUDENTS

While institutions are aware of the crisis that is looming, some, more than others, might need to brace for impact. According to the Fraternal Growth Index, the top 100 campuses in size have seen a 0.09% decrease in male enrollment from fall 2017 to fall 2022, while campuses ranked 101 to 600 in size have seen an 11.22% decrease in male enrollment in the same period. Larger schools that fall in the top hundred, like those in the Southeastern Conference or Big Ten division, will likely see a decrease in their applicant pool, but they are afforded the luxury of reaching a bit deeper into their pool to get to their optimum incoming class sizes. The real issue will arise for smaller institutions, those that are already doing everything they can short of admitting every single applicant to reach their desired, and oftentimes very necessary, class sizes. At smaller institutions, where the student population might be around 2,000 students, every student’s tuition makes a noticeable difference in the school’s budget. With the enrollment cliff coming, the applicant pool is getting increasingly shallow, and for some institutions, it may run dry.

One institution implementing new recruitment and retention tactics is Iona University in New York. With a full-time undergraduate population of 2,701 students reported in the fall of 2023, Iona is a small, private institution located in an urban area. Assistant Director of Student Engagement Austin Stellato, Iota Omicron (Iona), shared that retention is at the heart of everything the institution is doing. To successfully retain students, Iona has leaned into their ability to be flexible and adapt to the needs of incoming students, rather than only relying on their reputation and the strength of their academic programs. An example: the appearance of the campus. “If you want people to be attracted to your university, you must make your university attractive,” said Stellato. “A sense of belonging is cultivated not just through involvement on campus, but also through where students live, learn, eat and spend most of their time. If these facilities are up to standard, students will be happier on your campus, and they will be more likely to remain there.” In addition to investing in upgrading their facilities and campus, Iona has focused on adapting their curriculum options to students’ needs today.

Iona recently partnered with New York-Presbyterian, one of the highest-ranking hospitals in the nation and the highest-ranked hospital in New York, to open a school of health sciences. They are meeting an increasing need for healthcare professionals through cutting-edge academic opportunities. In addition to this new offering, Iona is appealing to students whose career path and field of study typically requires a master’s degree and is offering as many “4+1” programs as possible, programs that, with one application, admit a student into both a four-year undergraduate program and a one-year master’s program. In 2023, thanks, no doubt, to Iona’s commitment to these initiatives, the institution announced its largest first-year class in five years.

An alumnus of the Iota Omicron Chapter, Stellato thinks fraternities and other organizations can leverage their ability to provide connections, helping to boost their membership numbers while increasing overall retention to the institution. “It is important for fraternities to highlight their own value, but also for institutions to highlight the college experience that occurs outside of the classroom,” he said. “The experience of being in a leadership role on a campus, in a fraternal organization or otherwise, and managing a diverse group of upwards of 50 individuals teaches you people skills, time management and conflict resolution that you would be hard-pressed to learn elsewhere.”

Dwayne Todd, Alpha Eta (Samford), has a unique vantage point on the enrollment cliff as a member of Pi Kappa Phi’s National Council, and as the vice president for student engagement and success at Ohio Wesleyan University. With a total enrollment of 1,452 and a collective first-year enrollment of 448 in fall 2023, Ohio Wesleyan is a small, private institution located in a rural area. In 2021, when they found themselves falling behind their peers, Todd says they experienced some “nail-biting” moments and anticipated being forced to make cuts. Instead, the university enacted fresh ideas and aggressive strategies that he believes put Ohio Wesleyan on the right path to prevail. The university embarked on an “all-in” approach to student success by targeting these key areas: academics, finances and social connections. “We set up teams of faculty and staff to look at different areas allows students to register for courses and the firstyear experience,” said Todd. “It has been extremely with how the puzzle as a team.” beneficial to have people across the institution coming together with their unique puzzle pieces to talk about which ones aren’t fitting right, and how we can solve the puzzle as a team."

In doing this, Ohio Wesleyan changed policies that they found were working against them and their students and decided to invest heavily in support resources. One initiative put in place is a summer bridge program, targeted at and open to vulnerable student populations. First-year students in this program attend a free, threeweek residency before other students arrive on campus, skills succeed will be at their disposal throughout their time at Ohio Wesleyan.

Additionally, the institution invested in a full-time director of first-generation success who has helped build out a first-generation support program that includes scholarships, internships and programming for this population of students. In terms of the social aspect, Ohio Wesleyan improved their housing facilities and made the move to house all first-year students in a single, renovated building designed to encourage engagement and create a greater sense of community.

With these improvements, Ohio Wesleyan has seen its highest retention rates in more than a decade. Retention among firstto-second-year students was at an impressive 84 percent in the 2023-2024 academic year, a 3% increase from the prior year. Among first-generation students, retention increased by 10% and second-to-third-year student retention increased by 7%.

THE GREEK LIFE APPROACH: ADDING VALUE TO THE COLLEGE EXPERIENCE

The enrollment cliff’s effect is not exclusive to institutions. Fraternities and sororities rely primarily on their undergraduate membership to thrive. Where do these members come from? That shrinking number of students attending college. So, what does this mean for the future of fraternity and sorority life?

National Panhellenic Conference (NPC) Chief Executive Officer Dani Weatherford, recognizes that she does not have a crystal ball to see the exact impact the enrollment cliff will have. However, she remains committed to supporting sorority communities through difficult times and pivoting when necessary to provide better support and resources. “We know that sorority is a good investment of time and resources. Sorority women are more likely to persist through college, graduate on time and report higher levels of satisfaction with their college experience than non-affiliated peers,” said Weatherford. Unfamiliar and unprecedented times are something that NPC is no stranger to, especially following the COVID-19 pandemic. “A lot has changed for college students over the past few years,” she shared. “We can’t underestimate the effects of the pandemic on the college experience and on the student population numbers we are seeing and predicting.” NPC has been fortunate to recently see sorority membership numbers returning to pre-pandemic levels. To Weatherford, this upward trend shows that the sorority experience is as strong and vital as ever and will remain that way even with the enrollment cliff.

While it is indisputable that college campuses and Greek organizations have changed and evolved because of the pandemic, Weatherford believes that the value of the experience has not diminished. “The sorority experience serves as an amplifier for the college experience. Our sorority communities and networks worldwide help women connect with internships, engage with academic support services and provide substantial experience in philanthropy,” said Weatherford. “These keystone experiences, combined with a lifelong foundation of sisterhood, are of the utmost importance when women first enter the job market and throughout their careers.” For parents, students and college administrators looking to boost student success and ensure a positive experience, Weatherford recommends looking to Panhellenic, and the larger fraternity and sorority communities.

Similarly, North American Interfraternity Conference (NIC) President and Chief Executive Officer Judson Horras knows that fraternities and sororities can add value to the college experience in an age where the worth of a college education is in constant question. He believes that the college enrollment cliff will be different on all campuses, but the impact of fraternity can remain constant. “I am concerned that the enrollment cliff will make it more difficult for fraternities to exist at some institutions,” said Horras, “It’s a shame because I think young men today need fraternity more than ever.”

LOOKING AHEAD: THE FUTURE OF GREEK LIFE

Something Horras has seen that makes him hopeful for the future is the newfound willingness institutions have to partner with the NIC. It seems to him that some institutions are finally realizing the value of fraternity. He has seen institutions and administrators making efforts to introduce fraternity-friendly administrative policies, knowing that the success of the institution may hinge on the continued existence of these organizations. A fraternity experience increases male retention rates, teaches men to collaborate and engage in diverse viewpoint conversations and lowers the rate of anxiety and depression among male students. “Fraternity gives students a home away from home, and I think for a lot of young men, a strong fraternity community is the value add that can make or break an admissions decision,” said Horras.

Horras recently witnessed an example of this as his daughter weighed her options during her admissions process. “The students we saw on campus who were actively involved in securing her as a student, whether through campus tours or one-on-one outreach, were all fraternity and sorority members,” said Horras. “I think institutions need to activate their fraternity and sorority base on campus if they aren’t already. Using these students who care about the institution and are ‘plugged in’ is critical. Students are not just choosing an institution based on academics anymore, they are choosing based on fit and where they feel most at home.” Making students feel at home is something that Horras knows fraternities can do, and they can do it incredibly well.

“Of the 600 campuses that have fraternities, I don’t believe we are at risk of losing even 100 of them,” said Horras. “Large campuses will remain strong, and smaller schools will need to rely on the support of their fraternities and sororities, as well as fraternity and sorority alumni, to survive. It will be difficult, but the vast majority will make it out on the other side.”

As institutions of higher learning approach the enrollment cliff, fraternities and sororities, along with their inherent value on college campuses, will play a vital role. While fraternities and sororities do not recruit students outright for their organizations until students are enrolled, they still play a crucial role in students’ admissions decisions. Fraternity and sorority members are often the most involved individuals on their campuses, serving in roles as orientation leaders, welcome week guides, move-in crew and more. They do these things because of the values instilled by their organizations, as well as their strong affinity to their institution, oftentimes fostered by their Greek experience. “Fraternities belong everywhere,” said Horras. “Pi Kappa Phi is needed at every institution of higher learning in the country. Young men need it. Regardless of what the male enrollment challenge is at the school they’ve chosen to attend, men need fraternity, and I hope that among all the enrollment challenges, we don’t lose sight of that.”

Like in uncertain times before, it is certain that fraternities and sororities will adapt and adjust to the world around them. While each of these member organizations has grown to include thousands of individuals, they all began with small groups of people who shared a vision, a set of values and bonds of friendship. These attributes are at the heart of fraternity, and at the heart of Pi Kappa Phi. No matter the difficulties that lie ahead for colleges and universities, Greek organizations will remain vital to and committed to the success of institutions along with the success of the next generation of college graduates. While these upcoming classes may be shrinking, their desire to learn, connect with others in a meaningful way and to become tomorrow’s leaders is not. For as long as that remains true, fraternities will remain relevant, necessary and indispensable to young men, the institutions they attend and the world at large.