Cheltenham Guide 2012

STAR SPORTS T H E G E N T L E M A N ’S BO O K M A K E R

cheltenham

festival 2012 POCKET GUIDE

The likes of Big Buck’s and Sir Steve Redgrave might make it look easy, but successfully defending your sporting crown is a strain both mentally and physically. Many of you are convinced that all four of the reigning champions will retain their title at this year’s Festival, but we’ll be praying that at least one of the quartet comes unstuck.

St Patrick’s Day might come 24 hours too late this year for the shamrock sellers at Prestbury Park, but that won’t stop the throngs of Irish racegoers jumping on trains, boats and planes for their annual pilgrimage to the greatest four days jump racing in the world. I’m sure most will be relying on Hurricane Fly (Champion Hurdle) and Sizing Europe (Champion Chase) to ensure that they have us layers running for cover when the half-time whistle blows on Wednesday night.

Big Buck’s, who will attempt to equal Sir Ken’s record of 16 straight victories when he bids for an unprecedented fourth World Hurdle on Thursday, is guaranteed to start the shortest priced favourite at the 27-race meeting. Even odds of 1/2 may represent better value than you will get for your money at your local building society!

However, as ever, Cheltenham have saved the best until last, with the rejuvenated former champion Kauto Star rated “better than ever” by Paul Nicholls as he tries to reclaim chasing’s most coveted crown from Long Run, the young kid on the block who was imperious as he brushed aside a top-class field 12 months ago.

If you’re visiting Cheltenham this year then make sure you come and find us as we’re delighted to have secured Pitch 3 in the Tattersalls and look forward to meeting many of you face-to-face. Also, don’t forget to enter our ‘Cheltenham Champions’ competition as there are some great prizes on offer.

I hope this guide helps you pick a few winners (not too many, of course), but whatever happens, it again promises to be another epic week in the Cotswolds…

Ben Keith Managing Director

The Schedule Tuesday 13th March Time Race

Distance

1.30 William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle

2m 1/2f

2.05 Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase

2m

2.40 JLT Specialty Steeple Chase (A Handicap)

3m 1/2f

3.20 Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy

2m 1/2f

4.00 Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Steeple Chase

3m 7f

4.40 OLBG Mares Hurdle (for the David Nicholson Trophy)

2m 4f

5.15 Pulteney Land Investments Novices’ Handicap Chase

2m 4 1/2f

Wednesday 14th March Time Race

Distance

1.30 National Hunt Steeple Chase Challenge Cup

4m

2.05 Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle

2m 5f

2.40 RSA Steeple Chase

3m 1/2f

3.20 sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Steeple Chase

2m

4.00 Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle)

2m 5f

4.40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

2m 1/2f

5.15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Open NH Flat Race)

2m 1/2f

Thursday 15th March Time Race

Distance

1.30 Jewson Novices' Steeple Chase

2m 5f

2.05 Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle)

3m

2.40 Ryanair Chase

2m 5f

3.20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle

3m

4.00 Byrne Group Plate Handicap Steeple Chase

2m 5f

4.40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Steeple Chase 3m 1 1/2f 5.15 St. Patrick's Derby (Charity Race)

1m 5f

Friday 16th March Time Race

Distance

1.30 JCB Triumph Hurdle

2m 1f

2.05 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle

2m 1f

2.40 Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle

3m

3.20 Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase

3m 2 1/2f

4.00 Christie's Foxhunter Steeple Chase

3m 2 1/2f

4.40 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle

2m 4 1/2f

5.15 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeple Chase

2m 1/2f

1.30pm

2m 1/2f

William Hill Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Last year’s eventual winner Al Ferof (yellow) came from miles back

Stat Attack (Last 10 renewals with most recent results on right and in bold)

Winner’s Age Winner’s SP Fate of Favourite Winning Distance Previous run

8, 6, 6, 5, 5, 6, 7, 6, 5, 6 7/4f, 3/1f, 7/2f, 20/1, 6/1, 40/1, 17/2, 12/1, 12/1, 10/1 1st, 1st, 1st, 13th, 5th, 3rd, 2nd (jf), 5th, 3rd, 4th nk, 10, nk, 6, nk, 3, 2, nk, hd, 2 1st, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st

Key Trends 17 of the last 21 renewals have gone to a five or six-year-old.

Ireland have won seven of the last 11 runnings.

15 of the last 17 winners won last time out.

Notes...

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Tuesday 13th March What the connections say...

(We’ve sent Geoff Lester out to speak to some of the leading connections) “He is a 110-rated horse on the Flat and has a lot of class, and the better the ground, the better his chance.”

Dermot Weld, trainer of Galileo’s Choice “He had a busy summer last year, running four times on the Flat, so after he had made it three from three over hurdles at Cheltenham in November, we purposely gave him a break. He is a serious horse and ticks all the right boxes.”

Jessica Harrington, trainer of Steps To Freedom “He is a gorgeous horse and has so much speed that, while he has won on the soft, his gear-change is more effective on drier ground. I knew that he was good, but Newbury showed us just how good and we think he would have won even if Colour Squadron had not fallen two out.”

Alan King, trainer of Montbazon

Leading Contender The Irish have won the curtain-raiser seven times since the turn of the century, and, with STEPS TO FREEDOM, Galileo’s Choice, Midnight Game and Trifolium, they again have a strong representation. Montbazon, impressive at Newbury in his dress rehearsal, could prove best of the home-trained contingent, but Steps To Freedom readily brushed him aside when they met in the Aintree bumper last season. Furthermore, the leaders invariably go off very fast in the championship races at the Festival, putting more emphasis on jumping, and therefore it pays to go for the slick hurdler, and Steps to Freedom, who has looked a natural since switching codes, has the edge over Montbazon in that department. The cheekpieces have made a world of difference to Trifolium, who now settles in front, but it is hard to make all here, and Galileo’s Choice, who did not enjoy the ground at Fairyhouse but still managed to win, could be a better alternative.

2.05pm

2m

Racing Post Arkle Chase

Captain Chris (left) sees off Finian’s Rainbow to land last year’s Arkle

Stat Attack (Last 10 renewals with most recent results on right and in bold)

Winner’s Age Winner’s SP Fate of Favourite Winning Distance Previous run

8, 6, 5, 7, 5, 7, 7, 7, 8, 7 11/2, 5/4f, 9/1, 7/1, 15/2, 7/2, 6/1, 8/1, 6/1, 6/1 2nd, 1st, Fell, 7th, 7th, 2nd, 3rd, Fell, 8th, 4th 4, 11, 1, 1, 1 ¼, 5, 13, Shd, ¾, 2 ¾ Fell, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 1st

Key Trends Klairon Davis and Azertyyuiop are the only winning favourites since 1991.

Seven-year-olds have won five of the last seven.

12 of the last 14 winners started 2nd, 3rd or 4th favourite.

Notes...

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Tuesday 13th March What the connections say...

“I have never ridden a better one – Moscow Flyer was very good, but this fellow would have a better finishing kick. He has so much speed and I have never ridden a horse who is so slick and fast over his fences, and, though he is difficult to settle, he is not a tearaway.”

Barry Geraghty, rider of Sprinter Sacre “He had worked as well as he had ever done the day before Kempton, yet he was never going in the race and it was almost a relief when he came back sore all over. We have given him plenty of time to recover and we are looking forward to the rematch with Sprinter Sacre.”

Donald McCain, trainer of Peddlers Cross “He wants further than two miles, but you need to stay to win an Arkle, and Timeform rate his third in the Victor Chandler as one of the best performances from any novice this season. The experience of running in a fast-run, top class two-mile chase at Ascot has put him just right for this.”

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Al Ferof

Leading Contender The last eight favourites for this prestigious race have all been beaten, but SPRINTER SACRE is not only most professionals’ idea of the opening day banker, but is also thought by many to be the bet of the meeting, and it will be a major shock if he is beaten. Not far behind the best over hurdles – he finished third in the Supreme here 12 months ago – you only had to look at this magnificent physical specimen to know that he would be even better over fences. He is unbeaten in three attempts over the larger obstacles which prompted Nicky Henderson to describe him as “the black aeroplane” after he had sailed through his dress rehearsal with another breathtaking exhibition at Newbury. There does not appear to be a blemish on Sprinter Sacre’s CV, but Peddlers Cross looked the real deal until pulling muscles when “the big horse” put him in his place at Kempton over Christmas and he is preferred to Al Ferof and Cue Card for the forecast.

3.20pm

2m 1/2f

Stan James Champion Hurdle

Hurricane Fly proves too strong in last year’s Champion Hurdle

Stat Attack (Last 10 renewals with most recent results on right and in bold)

Winner’s Age Winner’s SP Fate of Favourite Winning Distance Previous run

7, 9, 7, 8, 8, 7, 5, 6, 6, 7 10/1, 9/2, 33/1, 7/2 jf, 7/4f, 16/1, 10/1, 22/1, 9/1, 11/4f PU, 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 6th, 14th, 3rd, 10th, 1st 3, 11, 5, nk, 1, 3, 1, nk, 3 ½, 1 ¼ 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 1st

Key Trends 16 of the last 23 winners had winning form at Cheltenham.

24 of the last 28 winners won their prep race.

Katchit is the only five-year-old to win since SeeYou Then in 1985.

Notes...

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Tuesday 13th March What the connections say...

“He is simply a great horse and I told everyone before Christmas to take all the 2/1 that they could get for the Champion. He was so impressive on his comeback in the Irish Champion, I gave him a squeeze three out and he came alive.”

Ruby Walsh, rider of Hurricane Fly “It was a huge performance to win at Newbury first time out, and I am confident that we will have him even better on the day. His stamina always kicks in from the second last, so the Cheltenham hill will help him.”

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Zarkandar “The Hurricane might well blow us all away, but I have two live chances in Grandouet and Binocular. Nothing was going better than Grandouet turning for home in the Triumph last year and the form has worked out super, while our fellow has strengthened up a lot. I was pleased to be able to get that prep-race into Binocular at Wincanton as he can be a very stuffy individual and he could not have been more impressive.”

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Grandouet and Binocular

Leading Contender We might see HURRICANE FLY about as often as we spot the Scarlet Pimpernel, but when he does turn up he gives the impression that he is the best Champion Hurdler there has been since triple winner Istabraq. He was awesome 12 months ago and showed on his belated reappearance in the Irish Champion that he can still boast a turbo-charged engine. Willie Mullins reckons that his Flat race speed can sometimes be blunted by the testing ground, but he coped well enough with the conditions at Fairyhouse and has only been beaten twice in 14 races over hurdles, and, while he is now slight odds-on, compared with the 11/4 we got on the day last year, we have to fill our boots again. Grandouet travels better than Zarkandar and is taken to reverse last year’s Triumph Hurdle form, and with his price drifting after he missed his prep-race with a slight knock he remains the each-way value.

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Tuesday 13th March

Key Trends (Remainder of Day One) 2.40pm

JLT Speciality Steeple Chase

Just five of the last 26 winners have carried 11st or more.

Only two favourites have won since 1977.

4.00pm

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase

Irish trained horses have won all seven renewals.

No horse younger than nine has ever won this race.

4.40pm

OLBG Mares Hurdle (for the David Nicholson Trophy)

Quevega is going for her fourth straight win in the race.

She has won all three on her seasonal reappearance.

5.15pm

Pulteney Land Investments Novices’ Handicap Chase

The race was run as a 0-140 handicap for the first time last year.

Divers became the fifth seven-year-old to win in seven runnings.

Notes... ________________ ____________________ ________________ ____________________ ________________ ____________________ ________________ ____________________ ________________ ____________________ ________________ ____________________ ________________ ____________________

2.40pm

3m 1/2f

RSA Steeple Chase

Last year’s winner Bostons Angel (right) with Jessies Dream at the last

Stat Attack (Last 10 renewals with most recent results on right and in bold)

Winner’s Age Winner’s SP Fate of Favourite Winning Distance Previous run

7, 7, 8, 7, 5, 7, 7, 7, 7, 7 33/1, 15/2, 25/1, 5/1, 14/1, 6/5f, 4/1f, 9/4f, 10/1, 16/1 5th, 5th, 3rd, 2nd, PU, 1st, 1st, 1st, 5th, 5th 2, 1 ¾, 1 ¼, 3, 6, 10, 4 ½, 16, 7, nk 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st

Key Trends

Notes...

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10 of the last 12 winners were aged seven.

Ireland have won this race three years running and all three winners contested the Dr PJ Moriarty Chase at Leopardstown.

No Feltham winner (Grands Crus) has gone on to win this race.

Wednesday 14th March What the connections say...

“He is a phenomenal horse, and whereas he used to burn up his energy by trying to fight me, he is now much more settled. He left the others for dust when winning the Feltham at Kempton in a three-second faster time than Kauto Star clocked in winning the King George, so whichever race we go for, I will fancy my chances.”

Tom Scudamore, rider of Grands Crus “He’d had only one gallop and one school since Grands Crus beat him at Kempton on Boxing Day, so to finish second on his comeback run in the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot was some performance.”

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Bobs Worth “He had one or two back problems early on this season, but he jumped better at Leopardstown last time, and he loved Cheltenham last year.”

Mouse Morris, trainer of First Lieutenant

Leading Contender Everyone is waiting with baited breath to see if the exciting Grands Crus runs here rather than the Gold Cup, and, while it looks the favoured option, the value surely lies with BOBS WORTH, who, though only third to Grands Crus at Kempton on Boxing Day, has since had a wind operation. He was only 80% fit for his return at Ascot and will be better suited by the uphill finish at Cheltenham, where he is three from three over hurdles. Last year’s Neptune Hurdle hero First Lieutenant is probably Ireland’s best chance of taking the prize back across the water for the fourth consecutive year.

However, he is not rated in the same league as the same owner’s Last Instalment, who has to miss the race through injury.

3.20pm

2m

sportingbet.com Champion Chase

Sizing Europe chased home by Big Zeb in last season’s Champion Chase

Stat Attack (Last 10 renewals with most recent results on right and in bold)

Winner’s Age Winner’s SP Fate of Favourite Winning Distance Previous run

8, 9, 7, 11, 8, 6, 5, 6, 9, 9 7/4f, 7/4f, 15/8, 6/4, 16/1, 5/1, 3/1, 4/11f, 10/1, 10/1 1st, 1st, unseated, 1st, Fell, Fell, 2nd, 1st, 4th, 8th 3, 7, 9, 2, 9, 1 ½, 19, 7, 6, 5 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, UR, 1st, 1st, 1st, 3rd

Key Trends Only one horse (Moscow Flyer) has won this race aged older than 10 since 1977.

26 of the last 30 winners have been single figure prices, but the last two have both been 10/1.

13 of the last 19 winners have won at the Festival previously.

Notes...

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Wednesday 14th March What the connections say...

“It has taken me six years to have the confidence to let him bowl along, and he produced a savage performance when we rode him that way in the Tied Cottage. What’s more, he loves Cheltenham as much as I do!”

Henry De Bromhead, trainer of Sizing Europe “You did not see the real Big Zeb at Punchestown – he hated that heavy ground and I knew we were in trouble at the first – but don’t rule us out on better ground.”

Colm Murphy, trainer of Big Zeb “He was a bit of a tearaway last year and was always out in front and there to be shot at, but his character changed during the summer and you can now ride a race on him, though whether we can beat Sizing Europe is another matter.”

Michael Buckley, owner of Finian’s Rainbow

Leading Contender The score between SIZING EUROPE and Big Zeb stands at two apiece, but the reigning champion should confirm last year’s running over his favourite course. There was only half a length between the pair at the final fence, but Sizing Europe had stretched his advantage to five lengths at the line. A fast run two miles at Cheltenham plays to the favourite’s strengths, and when he spots the Prestbury Park hill he engages the afterburners. Big Zeb did take the two-mile title the previous year, but it was a sub-standard race, with Master Minded not himself and both Forpadytheplasterer and Kalahari King, who filled the places, never having won a race since. Finian’s Rainbow is probably the best jumper of a fence that Nicky Henderson has trained since Remittance Man, who won this race 20 years ago, but he did not get up the hill last year when beaten in the Arkle, so why should he now?

Meet Stevie...

He’s been betting with Star Sports since the beginning – over 10 years now. He’ll be 44 this year and all he wants for his birthday is West Ham to win the Championship. He loves the dogs, spending time away from ‘she that must be obeyed’ and jellied eels.

Why do we know so much about Stevie?

Well, Stevie speaks to us and we listen.

We don’t hurry him off the phone – our staff aren’t rewarded for the speed of the calls they take.

In short, Star Sports isn’t like every other bookmaker. We offer the most personable, private, friendly and professional telephone credit and debit betting service available.

So, if you’re looking for a refreshing change, visit www.starsportsbet.co.uk or call 08000 521 321.

Wednesday 14th March

Key Trends (Remainder of Day Two) 1.30pm

National Hunt Chase

Last year Chicago Grey was Ireland’s first winner since 1999.

Jonjo O’Neill and Ferdy Murphy have won six of the last 10 between them.

4.00pm

Coral Cup

Just the one favourite has won in the race’s 19-year history.

12 of the last 15 winners have carried less than 11st.

4.40pm

Fred Winter Juvenile Novices Hurdle

Five of the seven winners have won their prep race.

Five of the seven winners have carried 10st 11lb or more.

5.15pm

Weatherbys Champion Bumper

Five-year-olds have won 12 of the 19 races.

Ireland have won 14 of the 19 renewals, but England have won the last two.

Notes... ________________ ____________________ ________________ ____________________ ________________ ____________________ ________________ ____________________ ________________ ____________________ ________________ ____________________ ________________ ____________________

2.40pm

2m 5f

Ryanair Chase

Albertas Run winning his second Ryanair Chase last year

Stat Attack (Last seven renewals with most recent results on right and in bold)

Winner’s Age Winner’s SP Fate of Favourite Winning Distance Previous run

10, 10, 6, 10, 8, 9, 10 9/2, 10/3f, 9/2, 4/1, 6/1, 14/1, 6/1 PU, 1st, 4th, 5th, 2nd, 2nd, 4th Notes... ½, 1 ¼, nk, 5, 2, 4 ½, 1 ____________ ____________ ____________ ____________ ___ ___ 2nd, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 6th, 2nd, PU ___ ___ ____________

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Key Trends

Six of the seven winners failed to win their prep race.

All seven winners had previously won at Cheltenham.

Four of the seven winners ran in the Paddy Power Gold Cup that season.

Ireland are yet to win the Ryanair.

Thursday 15th March What the connections say...

“Like so many horses who have trouble with their breathing, he struggled on the soft ground when beaten at Fairyhouse last time, so he has had a little wind operation.We hope that, together with better ground, will enable him to fire again back at Cheltenham.”

Paul Nolan, trainer of Noble Prince “He just had a school round to win the Red Mills, and if we could be guaranteed soft ground again, I would be going there very confident.”

Robbie Hennessy, trainer of Rubi Light “He had been working well with Burton Port, so when that one gave Long Run a scare at Newbury we began to think that we had him straight enough for the Ascot Chase, and it proved a fairytale return. He goes best fresh, so I just hope we can get him to Cheltenham in the same form.”

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Riverside Theatre

Leading Contender The Irish have such a fantastic record at the Cheltenham Festival, but it has not been lost on Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary that they have yet to win any of the seven runnings of this relatively new race. That could be rectified here as they have strong credentials with both NOBLE PRINCE and Rubi Light, though the pair want contrasting ground conditions. Rubi Light is a confirmed mudlark and his chance is very much dependent on the heavens opening. However, more often than not the Festival is run on good ground, which will suit Noble Prince, who won the Jewson here last year and is suited by a fast run race on a decent surface. He will also appreciate stepping back up in distance. Somersby, whose Arkle Chase second is the closest he has come in three previous visits to the Festival, produced a career best performance to win at Ascot last time and looks the pick of the home team.

3.20pm

3m

Ladbrokes World Hurdle

Big Buck’s won his third World Hurdle 12 months ago

Stat Attack (Last 10 renewals with most recent results on right and in bold)

Winner’s Age Winner’s SP Fate of Favourite Winning Distance Previous run

7, 8, 7, 6, 6, 8, 9, 6, 7, 8 13/8f, 9/4f, 9/2, 5/1, 8/1, 5/1, 11/8f, 6/1, 5/6f, 10/11f 1st, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, Fell, 1st, 4th, 1st, 1st nk, ¾, 1 ½, 3, hd, ¾, 1, 1 ¾, 3 ¼, 1 ¾ 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st

Key Trends Big Buck’s is aiming to become the first to win this race four times.

Anzum won at 40/1 in 1999, but since then every winner has been a single-figure price.

The Irish haven’t won this race since 1995.

Notes...

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Thursday 15th March What the connections say...

“Everyone loves him – Frankie Dettori even asked to ride him in the Ascot Gold Cup – and he is a real superstar. Maybe the fairytale will end one day, but Paul [Nicholls] insists that he has never been better.”

Andy Stewart, owner of Big Buck’s “Big Buck’s is the best staying hurdler that I have ever seen, but I remain convinced that my fellow will improve again for stepping up in trip and if anybody is going to lower his colours it’s us.”

Barry Geraghty, rider of Oscar Whisky “He is as quick as anything I have ridden over a hurdle, but twice we have been put in our place

by Big Buck’s, who must be the best hurdler of all time, so we can only hope that the favourite wakes up with a hangover!”

Tom Scudamore, rider of Dynaste

Leading Contender The remarkable BIG BUCK’S, who last started odds-against when he won his first World Hurdle here in 2009, will emulate Sir Ken, one of the great Champion Hurdlers from the Fifties, if he can stretch his unbeaten sequence to 16 by becoming the first horse to land this staying crown in four consecutive years. He no longer hits a flat spot in his races but still does only just enough, and even when the talented Dynaste got away from him running down the hill in the Cleeve Hurdle here in January, he managed to pick up the leader with consummate ease to win by seven lengths. Oscar Whisky had the class to finish third behind Hurricane Fly in last year’s Champion and connections think that he will improve over this longer trip – he might be the solution to the exacta but he won’t beat Big Buck’s.

Meet Nige...

Nige works in the City. He opened an account with Star Sports because we ‘lay big bets’ and he was fed up with being constantly knocked back. He lives in a flat near Canary Wharf, is single ‘three nights a week’ and smokes the ‘Montes’ we sent him. He knows he only needs to text us to get on.

Why do we know so much about Nige?

Well, he speaks to us and we listen. We don’t hurry him off the phone – our staff aren’t rewarded for the number or speed of the calls they take.

In short, Star Sports isn’t like every other bookmaker. We offer the most personable, private, friendly and professional telephone credit and debit betting service available.

So, if you’re looking for a refreshing change, visit www.starsportsbet.co.uk or call 08000 521 321.

Thursday 15th March

Key Trends (Remainder of Day Three) 1.30pm

Jewson Novices’ Steeple Chase

Noble Prince won the inaugural running of the race last year.

The first two home were the first two in the market.

2.05pm

Pertemps Final

Seven of the last eight winners have carried 10st 9lb or less.

The last eight winners have all been double-figure prices, including two 50/1 shots.

Buena Vista is going for his third straight win in the race.

4.00pm

Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase

Only one winning favourite since 1981.

The last 11 winners have all been double-figure prices.

14 of the last 16 winners have carried 11st or less.

4.40pm

Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase

Greasepaint was the last Irish winner in 1983.

10 of the last 14 winners have been double-figure prices.

The last three winners have carried over 11st and Jamie Codd was on board two of them.

Notes... ________________ ____________________ ________________ ____________________ ________________ ____________________ ________________ ____________________ ________________ ____________________ ________________ ____________________

1.30pm

2m 1f

JCB Triumph Hurdle

Zarkandar skips over the last on his way to winning last year’s renewal

Stat Attack (Last 10 renewals with most recent results on right and in bold)

Winner’s Age Winner’s SP Fate of Favourite Winning Distance Previous run

4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4, 4 16/1, 20/1, 20/1, 9/1, 7/2f, 11/2, 5/1, 11/2, 6/1, 13/2 1st, PU, 3rd, 10th, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 4th, 4th 2, 11, hd, 2, hd, 5, 2 ¼, ¾, 1 ¼, 2 ¼ 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st

Key Trends 13 of the last 18 winners started in the top four in the betting.

Henderson, Nicholls, King and Hobbs have won the last eight runnings.

15 of the last 17 winners won their prep race.

Notes...

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Friday 16th March What the connections say...

“We completed the Cheltenham-Aintree juvenile hurdle double in 2005 with Detroit City, and this fellow would compare very favourably with that one. His work before Kempton was very special, and he is all class.”

Philip Hobbs, trainer of Sadler’s Risk “He improved physically through the winter, and he stood out as a live Triumph contender before his first race at Taunton. He travels and jumps and is unlucky not to be going there unbeaten.”

Alan King, trainer of Grumeti “He was a typical late improver of the Aga Khan’s and won the Irish Cesarewitch for John Oxx, but he took to jumping straight away when he joined us and has been exciting from day one.”

Dessie Hughes, trainer of Minsk

Leading Contender The four-year-old hurdling championship has never looked more open, and, though the Irish have not managed to lift the crown since Scolardy 10 years ago, there was plenty of inspired money for the Dessie Hughes-trained Minsk before he jumped a twig in public. He won an Irish Cesarewitch for John Oxx but is not the only class performer to come off the Flat, with SADLER’S RISK boasting an even more impressive CV. He was a Group horse on the level with Mark Johnston, finishing fourth in the Chester Vase, in which he was only three lengths behind subsequent Irish Derby winner Treasure Beach and King George hero Nathaniel. He gained many friends when winning on his jumping debut at Kempton and has everything that one looks for in a Triumph winner - he travels, jumps and he can quicken. Grumeti and Pearl Swan, first and second in the Triumph trial here in January, are other smart recruits from the Flat, though with form a level or two below Sadler’s Risk. Dildar, a stablemate of Pearl Swan, was only five lengths off Derby winner Pour Moi in a Group 2 in France and, despite hating the soft ground, impressed Ruby Walsh with his attitude when winning first time over jumps at Taunton.

3.20pm

3m 2 1/2f

Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup

Long Run powers to glory last year

Stat Attack (Last 10 renewals with most recent results on right and in bold)

Winner’s Age Winner’s SP Fate of Favourite Winning Distance Previous run

8, 7, 8, 9, 7, 7, 7, 8, 9, 6 9/2, 7/1, 13/8f, 8/11f, 4/1f, 15/2, 5/4f, 9/4, 7/4f, 7/2f 4th, PU, 1st, 1st, 1st, 11th, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st 5, 1 ¾, 10, ½, 5, 2 ½, 2 ½, 7, 13, 7 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 1st, 1st, 5th, 1st

Key Trends 12 of the last 14 winners have been placed at the Festival before.

16 of the last 19 winners were aged between seven and nine.

No horse older than 10 has won since 1969.

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Friday 16th March What the connections say...

“It did both the horse and Sam’s confidence the world of good to get back on the winning road at Newbury last time. He looked more alert beforehand and has given 10lb to some good horses.

He was brilliant over the last two fences and went to the front tanking - I can’t wait for a rematch with Kauto Star.”

Robert Waley-Cohen, owner of Long Run “He definitely seems better than ever this season, but win or lose they can’t deny that he is a legend. He showed just how much when winning his fifth King George with his best ever exhibition of jumping on Boxing Day, but he has also won two Gold Cups and Cheltenham actually suits him better than Kempton, so who knows.”

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Kauto Star “We weren’t at all surprised that he ran Long Run so close at Newbury – he is a stone better horse at home this season, and he’ll definitely improve again.”

Nicky Henderson, trainer of Burton Port

Leading Contender We hailed a new chasing superstar last year in LONG RUN, who, having firmly closed Paul Nicholls’ book of fairytales by eclipsing his old warriors Denman and Kauto Star, had seemingly opened the door for Robert Waley-Cohen’s seven-year-old to dominate the Gold Cup scene for the next two or three seasons. However, Kauto Star does not do average, and twice this winter he has reminded the champion that he is still very much around, beating him fair and square both at Haydock and again in the King George at Kempton. Once an “iffy” jumper, Kauto Star has been spectacular this season, whereas Long Run, a regular client of renowned horsemaster Yogi Breisner, is still inclined to fall into the habits he gained in France in the early part of his career by hurdling his fences. However, the way he launched himself at the last two obstacles at Newbury in his prep-race suggested that the penny is starting to drop, and, though stablemate Burton Port gave him a fright in the dress rehearsal, there is now a 10lb turnaround. Therefore, Long Run, who could start at better odds than might be anticipated if the emotional money comes for Kauto Star, looks the safer option.

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Friday 16th March Key Trends (Remainder of Day Four) 2.05pm

Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle

Ireland have won four of the last five renewals and Willie Mullins the last two.

16 of the last 20 winners have carried less than 11st.

2.40pm

Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle

The five English winners had all won at Cheltenham that season.

Ireland have won the other two runnings.

4.00pm

Christie’s Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup

Only two of the last 21 winners were older than 10.

Four of the last seven winners went off 20/1 or bigger.

5.15pm

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup

11 of the last 12 winners carried less than 11st.

Six of the last 10 winners carried either 10st or 10st 1lb.

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