Indianapolis 3rd Quarter Real Estate Market Report 2011

Indianapolis Area Local Market Report, Third Quarter 2011

Today's Market‌ Median Price (Red Line) and One-year Price Growth $140,000

25%

$120,000

20%

$100,000

15% 10%

$80,000

5% $60,000

0%

$40,000

-5%

$20,000

-10% -15%

$0 2002 Q1 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3

Indianapolis

U.S.

Local Trend

$129,400 4.9% 9.8%

$169,267 -4.3% -16.0%

Prices continue to grow relative to last year

3-year (12-quarter) Housing Equity Gain*

$11,500

-$32,233

7-year (28 quarters) Housing Equity Gain*

$900

-$29,733

9-year (36 quarters) Housing Equity Gain*

$9,000

$2,267

$417,000 $271,050 31%

$729,250 $417,000

Price Activity Current Median Home Price (2011 Q3) 1-year (4-quarter) Appreciation (2011 Q3) 3-year (12-quarter) Appreciation (2011 Q3)

This area has held onto positive equity growth despite the national market decline

*Note: Equity gain reflects price appreciation only

Conforming Loan Limit** FHA Loan Limit

Most buyers in this market have access to government-backed financing

Local Median to Conforming Limit Ratio not comparable **Note: the 2009 loan limits for FHA and the GSEs were extended through 2010.

1,000s

State Home Sales (Red Line) and Sales Growth

180

30%

160

20%

140

10%

120

0%

100 80

-10%

60

-20%

40

-30%

20 0

-40% 2002 Q1 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3

Home Sales State Existing Home Sales (2011 Q3 vs 2010 Q3)

Indiana

U.S.

18.6%

17.0%

The sales level is much higher than a year ago and growing.

Drivers of Local Supply and Demand‌ U.S.

Indianapolis

Local Economic Outlook 12-month Job Change (Sep)

-2,200

12-month Job Change (Aug)

-8,900

36-month Job Change (Sep)

-47,900

Not Comparable Not Comparable Not Comparable

Current Unemployment Rate (Sep)

8.1%

9.1%

Year-ago Unemployment Rate

8.6%

9.6%

1-year (12 month) Job Growth Rate

-0.3%

0.8%

Job losses are a problem and will weigh on demand, but layoffs are declining, a trend that could help buyer confidence Unemployment in Indianapolis is better than the national average and improving Local employment growth is poor and needs to improve

Share of Total Employment by Industry U.S.

Indianapolis Area

Natural Resources Natural Resour 0.1% and Mining 0.7 0.1% Construction Governmen 4.7% 41.2 t Other Manufacturing 9.3% 80.9 14.1% Services Trade/Transpo 20.7% 180.7 3.9% #N/A

#N/A

1.7%

14.7

6.7%

58.4

Prof. & Busin

13.8%

120.6

Educ. & Heal

14.8%

129.3

Information

Leisure & Hospitality Financial Act 10.3%

#N/A

Resources Natural 0.6% and Mining 0.6% Governmen Constru 0.6% t Manufac 8.9% 16.9% Other

Constructio n 4.7% Manufacturi ng 9.3%

Leisure &Educ.

Ho & 10.3%

89.9 Health 33.9 Other Service Services 3.9% Prof. & 14.8% 14.1% Business 122.8 Government Services #N/A #N/A 13.8% #N/A #N/A

#N/ANatural

Constructio n 0.6% Manufacturi ng 8.9%

Services Trade/T 18.9% 4.1% Informa2.0% Leisure & Hospitality Financi 5.7% 10.0%

Trade/Tran sportation/U tilities 20.7%

Trade/Tran sportation/ Utilities 18.9%

Profess13.2% Educat 15.3%

Information Financial 1.7% Activities 6.7% 95.2%

Leisure10.0% Educational & Health Other S4.1% Services

Profession al & Business Services 13.2%

15.3% Govern16.9%

#N/A

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Information Financial 2.0% Activities 5.7%

12-month Employment Change by Industry in the Indianapolis Area (Sep - 2011) Goods Producing Natural Resources/Mining/Construction Natural Resources and Mining Construction Manufacturing Service Providing Excluding Government Trade/Transportation/Utilities

State Economic Activity Index 12-month change (2011 - Sep) 36-month change (2011 - Sep)

NA

Information

-100

NA

Financial Activities

700

0

Prof. & Business Services

-1,800

1,600

Educ. & Health Services

-1,600

Leisure & Hospitality

2,600

Other Services

-400

Government

100

NA -4,000

Indiana

U.S.

1.1%

2.8%

-4.5%

-2.6%

700

Indiana's economy is growing, but decelerated from last month's 1.23% change and lags the rest of the nation

New Housing Construction Local Fundamentals

Indianapolis

U.S.

12-month Sum of 1-unit Building Permits through Sep 2011

3,620

not comparable

8-year average for 12-month Sum of 1-Unit Building Permits

7,896

Reduced construction will limit new supply to the market, allowing demand not comparable to catch up with the inventory more quickly

Single-Family Housing Permits (Sep 2011) 12-month sum vs. a year ago

-4.6%

-10.3%

The current level of construction is 54.2% below the long-term average

Construction is down from last year, but appears to have bottomed.

Construction: 12-month Sum of Local Housing Permits (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)

16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0

While new construction is the traditional driver of supply in real estate, foreclosures now have a strong impact on inventories, particularly at the local level. Rising inventories, through construction or foreclosure, place downward pressure on the median home prices.

State Total Foreclosure Rate vs. U.S Average (U.S. Average in Blue Dashed Line)

6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%

Source: Mortgage Bankers' Association

Foreclosures by Type Monthly Market Data August 2011

Market Share:

2.4%

Prime (blue), Alt-A (green), and Subprime (red)

93.6%

PRIME:

3.32 %

Foreclosure + REO Rate

4.0% 4.9 % 2.4% 4.0% 93.6 %

SUBPRIME:

Aug-11 3.3%

Foreclosure + REO Rate

90.9%

16.97 %

15.40 %

Aug-11

11.70 %

11.13 %

11.7%

Aug-11 11.1%

Mar-11

4.9% 90.9 %

The local prime rate fell modestly from March of last year

3.15 %

3.4% Aug-11

Mar-11

The subprime foreclosure rate jumped compared to March of last year

18.2% Aug-11

Locally, today's foreclosure rate is low relative to the national average

15.2%

The alt-A foreclosure rate rose slightly over the most recent 6 months

18.8 8%

Mar-11

15.2 1%

15.1 8%

15.2% Aug-11

Mar-11

Compared to the national average, today's local prime rate is low

18.9% 18.1 5%

15.4%

4.1 Suprime mortgages make up a larger % than average share of the Indianapolis 4.1% market, while prime foreclosures are in decline

3.2%

3.43 %

17.0%

Mar-11

ALT-A:

3.1%

3.12 %

Mar-11

Foreclosure + REO Rate

U.S.

Indianapolis

The August rate for Indianapolis is low compared to the national average

The "foreclosure + REO rate" is the number of mortgages, by metro area, that are either in the foreclosure process or have completed the foreclosure process and are owned by banks divided by the total number of mortgages for that area.

Source: First American CoreLogic, LoanPerformance data

Prime Foreclosures and Delinquencies in Process Monthly Market Data August 2011

18.2%

Prime: 60-day Delinquent

19.52 %

Aug-10

18.6% 19.5% 18.59 %

18.16 %

27.5 2%

Mar-11

Aug-11

Aug-10

Mar-11

5.5%

5.56 %

5.51 %

Aug-10

Mar-11

3.1%

Prime: Foreclosure + REO Rate

3.11 %

Aug-10

26.6% 27.8% 27.5% 27.8 0%

5.3%

Prime: 90-day Delinquent

U.S.

Indianapolis

5.6%

5.34 % Aug-11

3.3% 3.32 %

Mar-11

3.1%

5.8% 6.25 %

6.24 %

Aug-10

Mar-11

3.2%

3.12 %

3.17 %

Aug-11

Aug-10

Source: First American CoreLogic, LoanPerformance data

6.2%

3.4% 3.43 %

Mar-11

26.6 0% Aug-11

The local 60-day delinquency rate fell over the 6-month period ending in August suggesting that 90-day delinquencies will decline in the near future

6.3% 5.82 %

The 90-day delinquency rate in Indianapolis fell over the 6-month period ending in August

Aug-11

3.2% The decline of both the 60 and 90-day delinquency rates over the most recent 3.15 6-month period suggests a decline in % the local foreclosure rate in the near Aug-11 future.

Affordability Long-Term Trend: Ratio of Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green)

30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1992

1994

Monthly Mortgage Payment to Income Ratio for 2010 Ratio for 2011 Q3 Historical Average

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Indianapolis

U.S.

7.4% 7.4% 10.5%

15.1% 13.9% 22.0%

2006

2008

2010

Historically strong and an improvement over the second quarter of 2011 More affordable than most markets

Recent Trend - Local Mortgage Servicing Cost to Income (Historical Average Shown in Red Dashed Line)

12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2011 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3

Median Home Price to Income Ratio for 2010 Ratio for 2011 Q3 Historical Average

Indianapolis

U.S.

1.2

2.4

1.2

2.3

1.3

2.7

The price-to-income ratio rose, but is better than the historic average Affordable compared to most markets

Ratio of Local Median Home Price to Local Average Income (Local Historical Average Shown in Red, U.S. Average in Green)

4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

The Mortgage Market 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate and Treasury Bond Yield 280

7.0%

240

6.0%

200

5.0%

160

4.0%

120

3.0%

80

2.0%

40

1.0%

0

0.0% 2006 Q3

Q1

2007 Q3

Spread (left axis)

Q1

2008 Q3

Q1

2009 Q3

30-Year FRM (Right axis)

Q1

2010 Q3

Q1

2011 Q3

10-Year Treasury Bond (Right Axis)

After a soft second quarter, the economy was shocked by three events that came together nearly within the same weak; a deadlock in Congress and near miss on the budget extension, renewed concerns about the Greek debt crisis impacting the US, and a sharp, downward revision to 1st and 2nd quarter GDP estimates. The result was a 15% or more correction in the equity indexes, which sent investors into US Treasuries seeking a risk free asset. The yield on the 10-year Treasury reached near record lows and the 30-year FRM followed suit, slipping under 4% multiple times. However, the gap between the 10-year Treasury and the 30-year fixed opened up as the risk to MBS investors of increased refinancing rose, creating resistance for falling mortgage rates. Fuel prices eased in the 3rd quarter and are likely to do so through the fall. At the same time there is little core inflation pressure, which combined with the Federal Reserve’s “operation twist” that is intended to flatten the yield curve putting downward pressure on long-term rates, should sustain a nearrecord low mortgage rate environment through the fall.

A Closer Look‌Local Rental Vacancy Rates U.S. (blue) and Local (red) Rental Vacancy Rates 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

Rental Vacancy Rate

Indiana

U.S.

Ratio for 2010

14.1%

10.2%

Ratio for 2011 Q3

14.5%

9.8%

Historical Average

10.9%

8.6%

2004

2006

2008

2010

Indiana's rental vacancy rate fell in recent years, but was above the national average in 2010.

Instead of falling after the end of the housing market boom, the national rental vacancy rate peaked at 11.1% in the 3rd quarter of 2010. Job losses, stagnant incomes, and credit issues forced some families to double-up and many young adults to move back in with their parents. The stabilization of the national economy in 2010 and subsequent three quarters of job creation has helped to improve the rental market pushing the rental vacancy rate down to 9.8% in the 3rd quarter of 2011. In addition, many would-be buyers have been forced to rent due to a sharp increase in credit and downpayment requirements in recent years. Rent growth was strong in the first 3 quarter of 2011 and is expected to grow with increases of 3.2% and 3.5% in 2012 and 2013, respectively. Locally, there was a decline in the rental vacancy rate for Indiana from its recent peak of 19.4% in 2006 to 14.1% in 2010.

Geographic Coverage for this Report The Indianapolis area referred to in this report covers the geographic area of the Indianapolis metro area as officially defined by the Office of Management and Budget of the U.S. Government. The official coverage area includes the following counties: Boone County, Brown County, Hamilton County, Hancock County, Hendricks County, Johnson County, Marion County, Morgan County, Putnam County, and Shelby County More information on the OMB's geographic definitions can be found at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/inforeg_statpolicy/