Designing for uncertain times
Kevin McCullagh
Design Leaders Conference, Dublin, 18 November 2021
Photo by Slim Emcee on Unsplash
Product strategy
We bring clarity to the early stages of innovation
Strategic foresight
Opportunity discovery
Proposition design
Experience strategy
Capability building
‘ The future is part of every designer’s job description’ Marc Newson
‘ Skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it’s been’ Wayne Gretzky
... but pucks travel in straight lines!
The future is uncertain
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‘ There are decades where nothing happens
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‘ There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen’ Vladimir Lenin
‘ Never make forecasts – especially about the future’ Sam Goldwyn
The future can’t be predicted…
The future can’t be predicted… but foresight work helps you
The future can’t be predicted… but foresight work helps you make sense of change
The future can’t be predicted… but foresight work helps you make sense of change reduce shocks
The future can’t be predicted… but foresight work helps you make sense of change reduce shocks and shorten your odds on big bets
Anticipate to Initiate
The bigger the bet, the bigger the need
Make foresight your blindspot mirror
Build an assumption base on the future ‘ being prescient about the size and shape of tomorrow’s opportunities’ by building an ‘assumption base about the future’ based on ‘deep insights into the trends.’ Gary Hamel & C.K. Prahalad, ‘Competing for the Future’, 1994
Gary Hamel
Clarify what the foresight is for
EXPERIENCE STRATEGY
Design inspiration
Fuelling design ideas by analysing design and technology trends.
Clarify what the foresight is for PORTFOLIO STRATEGY
Opportunity identification Translating trends analysis into opportunities and propositions EXPERIENCE STRATEGY
Design inspiration
Fuelling design ideas by analysing design and technology trends.
Clarify what the foresight is for
CORPORATE STRATEGY
Future scoping
Painting a broad future context to identify future disruptions and stimulate discussion. PORTFOLIO STRATEGY
Opportunity identification Translating trends analysis into opportunities and propositions EXPERIENCE STRATEGY
Design inspiration
Fuelling design ideas by analysing design and technology trends.
Ground foresight in fact Global sea level is projected to rise Global mean sea level (m) 5
4
High emissions scenario (RCP 8.5)
3
2 Emissions stabilise by 2100 (RCP 4.5)
1
CO2 emissions reach zero by 2100 (RCP 2.6)
0 Historical observations
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
2200
2250
2300
Technology is not destiny
Jet engines?
Ford FX-Atmos concept, 1954
Nuclear powered cars?
Ford Nucleon concept, 1958
The Metaverse?
Sociology before technology
Fit the wide angle lens
Scan wide, scan often
Filter by focusing on key strategic questions
Work with worldly-wise experts
Seek viewpoint diversity
Form Credible Coherent Compelling points of view
‘ hold strong opinions weakly…
‘ hold strong opinions weakly… If you must forecast then forecast often
‘ hold strong opinions weakly… If you must forecast then forecast often – and be the first to prove yourself wrong.’ Paul Saffo
Tangibly translate
Do it again
Macro trends
Soft geometry Pure and softened geometry Muted colours Matt and satin finishes
Slide 33
Macro trends
Soft geometry
Slide
5
Pure and softened geometry | Muted colours | Matt and satin finishes
Keep on tracking!
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