Choices on the road ahead Kevin McCullagh Eröffnung des Bereichs MOVE, Telekom Design Gallery 18 00 September XXX 2014 2017
The car had some foreseen consequences
Horses gave way to cars 25 24 22 19 5
8
1850 1870
14
8
3 4
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 2000
US Horse Population Million equines
Households owning cars
Knock-on effects took decades to unfold
1908
1926
1937
1952
1975
Model T enters production
Route 66 established
Golden gate bridge opens
First walk/don’t walk signal in NY
First McDonalds drive thru
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
1900 US Buerau Census data
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
The car had many unforeseen consequences
Out of town shopping
‘ It was easy to predict mass car ownership, but hard to predict Walmart.’ Carl Sagan
Amount of urban space dedicated to car parks
New leisure pursuits
The road trip
New industries
America’s biggest companies in 1955 Revenue
1. General Motors 2. Exxon Mobil 3. U.S. Steel 4. General Electric 5. Esmark 6. Chrysler 7. Armour 8. Gulf Oil 9. Mobil 10. DuPont Fortune 500
GM Exhibition assembly line 1955
America’s biggest companies in 2017 Market value
1. Apple Inc. 2. Alphabet Inc. 3. Microsoft 4. Amazon.com 5. Berkshire Hathaway 6. Facebook 7. Exxon Mobil 8. Johnson & Johnson 9. J. P. Morgan Chase 10. Wells Fargo Fortune 500
Apple HQ, Cupertino, CA
3 waves
2000
2010
2020
1
2
3
MaaS
EV
AV
Mobility as a service
Electric vehicles
Autonomous vehicles
2030
2040
Mobility as a Service Mobility services
Multimodal payment
Multimodal planner
Taxi hailing apps
Navigation
Parking services
Cost and convenience
(Price / Comfort / Flexibility / Speed)
Taxi
Luxury chauffeur Private car
Minicab Hailable mini cab Mini cab that can be hailed with an app, e.g. Uber
Freefloating car sharing
Dynamic minibus Uses data to determine routes and offer point to point pick-ups and drop-offs, e.g. Bridj
Action zone
Cars are collected from and returned to, any parking space within a pre-defined area, e.g. DriveNow
Point-to-point car sharing
Motorbike
Bus
e-bike Bike Shared bike
Bicycle with integrated electrical motor for propulsion, e.g. GoCycle
5km
Back-to-base car sharing
Shared Scooter
Source:
2km
P2P car sharing
Metro
Walk
1km
For smaller (typically 3-5) pre-determined groups of users, e.g. Audi Unite
Car owners rent their cars directly to other consumers, e.g. RelayRides
Scooter Tram
Micro car sharing
10km
Typical urban journey length 15km+
More car deterrents and alternatives
Richer mobility service ecosystem New & diverse mobility modes
Squeeze on car use
Multi-modal mobility app
Higher parking costs
Seamless payments
Congestion charging Lower speed limits Traffic-calming measures Stricter emission laws No-car developments Limited car zones
2025 Madrid aim to ban all diesel cars
1980s
2004
2014
2019
2030
2040
High occupancy vehicle lanes in the USA
ZipCar launches
London congestion nears pre-charging levels
Oslo to ban all cars from city centre
Helsinki target to eliminates private-car ownership
DfT expects 25% increase in traffic since 2015
1982
2003
2010
2020
2034
Athens Ring Odd/Even system
London congestion charging begins
London’s bike scheme launched
Paris to ban diesel cars
Hamburg to ban cars from centre
UK and France to ban diesel and petrol car production
Peak car?
UK car sales
2.65m 2.55m 2.45m 2.35m 2.25m 2.15m 2.05m 1.95m 1.85m 1.75m 2007
SMMT (2015)
2009
2011
2013
2015
But cars have never been so popular (with drivers) UK car sales
2.65m 2.55m 2.45m 2.35m 2.25m 2.15m 2.05m 1.95m 1.85m 1.75m 2007
SMMT (2015)
2009
2011
2013
2015
But cars have never been so popular (with drivers)
+57% Forecasted rise in global car sales by 2030
UK car sales
Euromonitor, 2015
2.65m 2.55m 2.45m 2.35m 2.25m 2.15m 2.05m 1.95m 1.85m 1.75m 2007
SMMT (2015)
2009
2011
2013
2015
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EVs
EV adoption forecasts Predictions and targets of EV penetration across global markets
100%
CEE
90%
Adam Whitmore
80% 70% 60%
Tony Seba Qian Zhang
50%
BNEF
40%
Carbon Tracker BNEF
Frost & Sullivan
30% 20%
Morgan Stanley
10% 2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Share of car sales Share of cars on the roads
43% of UK homes don’t have access to off-street parking National grid
More public charging stations, pronto!
20
16
15
12
10
8
US
GER 5
4
0
0 2012 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Projected global car sales (millions) DIESEL ELECTRIC Source: UBS
UK
2011
12
13
14
15
16
17
Public EV charging stations (thousands) Source: The Economist, 15 September 2017
AVs
AV adoption forecasts Predictions and targets of AV penetration across global markets
100%
Fehr & Peers McKinsey
90% 80%
Thatcham Thatcham
IoEEE
Amica Research
70% 60%
IMechE
Tony Seba
50%
UoTA
40%
Oliver Wyman BCG
30% KPMG
20%
Canalys
10% Share of car sales Share of cars on the roads
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Some foreseen consequences
Less accidents
Title 1 line gains Productivity
Source:
Image source: www.motortrend.com
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Impact on commute times? Commuters
Average distribution commute times in New York, Washington DC, Philadelphia, Boston and Baltimore 60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% Less than 30 mins
30-59 min
50-59 min
90 min and greater
Work from home Commute times
Philadelphia Mayor’s Office of Transportation & Utilities, 2013
Image source: VicHealth
Greater access to mobility
Greater social inclusion
Robo taxis reach parity with public transport ‘ When there’s no other dude in the car, the cost of Uber becomes cheaper than owning a vehicle’ Travis Kalanick Ex Uber CEO
$1.50/mile $1.25/mile $0.50/mile Current Uber
Robotics Trends, 2016
LA subway
Driverless taxi
Less foreseen consequences
Greater vehicle diversity
Meeting cars
Sleeper cars
Title 1 line Charger cars Slide subtitle max 2 lines, lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit
Source:
Charger cars
Shoe shine
New jobs and businesses
Title 1freight Night line
Source:
Image source: www.wired.com
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Sociology before technology
Section
Slide 48
Title 1 line History or future?
Section
Slide 49
Technology Title 1 line is only one driver of the future
Feminisation
The rise and social impact of women
Technology ≠ Destiny
We shape technology and technology shapes us
Tallin experiment City gave its 430,000 residents free access to public transport in an attempt to get cars off the road, decrease congestion and make the city more accessible to low-income residents.
+1.2% increase in demand for the service overall
New taxes
C20th choices
We join the dots
@kevinmccull www.plan.london
Rise of affordable electric cars
Image source: axt.org.uk
The first wave of truly affordable EVs is already upon us
Commuters like their private bubble
Image source: axt.org.uk
Even if commuting by car takes longer, people would stick it out in traffic. Some prefer this alone time, in comfort, to listen to music or just to reflect.
Core message
‘ Banishing the car from urban areas is becoming a common trend in many European cities.’ Jack Stewart, BBC Future news, February 2014
What happens when things go wrong?
Zero UI - A move towards effortless interactions with cars
Mixed economy
Title 1 line gains Productivity
Source:
Image source: www.motortrend.com
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Title 1 line Xx
Source:
Image source: www.wired.com
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Title 1 line gains Productivity
Source:
Image source: www.partcatalog.com
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Peter Campbell, October 16, 2016
We help companies work out what to do next with their products ...and why
Section
Slide 68
Image source: auto10.com
Title line on the We’re1now road to autonomous vehicles
Less congestion, more speed