Trends day Mobility futures 31 July 2019
The office
Perspective
CASE
Vision of the future of mobility (2017)
C A S E Connected
Autonomous
Shared
Electric
CASE
Vision of the future of mobility (2017)
SERIOUS DELAYS AHEAD
C A S E Connected
Autonomous
Shared
Electric
Visibility
AVs have been massively over hyped Gartner hype cycle Peak of inflated Expectations
Plateau of productivity
Slope of enlightenment
Trough of disillusionment Technology trigger
Ravine of demise
Valley of oblivion
Time
Mobility infrastructure roll out slower than Silicon Valley speeds
1908 Households owning cars
Model T enters production 100%
1926 1937 Route 66 established
Golden gate bridge opens
1952
First walk/don’t walk signal in NY
1975
First McDonalds drive thru
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
1900 US Buerau Census data
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
A more nuanced view of CASE
C A S E Connecting to everything
Augmented driving
Shared kerbspace
Electric everything
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C
Connected to everything
Headline 30pt Connectivity is the new priority Autonomous vehicle – Operates in isolation – Uses sensors to see where other vehicles are – Limited low-range and low speed
Cooperative-automated vehicle – Uses both autonomous and cooperative capabilities – Vehicle senses/receives message i.e. safety hazard – Automatically performs corrective task
Cooperative vehicle – Operates based on nearby vehicles behaviours – Uses connectivity to expand individual perception capability (i.e. seeing behind corners) – Communicates with infrastructures and other road-users
Headline 30pt V2X V2N
V2G Vehicle to Grid (power)
V2V
V2P
V2V Vehicle to Vehicle V2N Vehicle to Network (internet) V2P Vehicle to Pedestrians V2I Vehicle to Infrastructure
V2G
V2I
Headline Search for30pt new revenue streams
Content platforms
Service platforms
Data platforms
Big Tech and car brands looking to offer in-car media services:
There is a hive of activity exploring wide spectrum of non-media based digital services:
Other are exploring ways to monetize the data stream generated by connected vehicles:
– Gaming – Video – Audio/music
– Real time traffic and location updates – In car bookings and payments – Location based advertising
– Traffic monitorimg – Vehicle performance – Driving style and safety
Holoride x30pt Headline Audi In-car VR experience platform
Content platform
Honda Dream Headline 30pt Drive In car service integration for drivers and passengers
Service platform
Dovu Headline 30pt Rewards drivers with crypto-tokens for sharing their mobility data
Data platform
A
Augmented driving
x
Machines have been overestimated, and humans underestimated
[I aim to make] ‘machines slightly more intelligent — or slightly less dumb.’ John Giannandrea, Head of AI, Apple
The tech isn’t ready
Scenarios that GM’s self-driving cars have trouble handling or aren’t being tested broadly in San Francisco
Changing lands Tunnels U-turns Construction zones Orange cones on road Pull-over at curb Narrow two-way street Distinguishing between motocycles and bikes
Source: The Information
Going around cars trying to parallel park
‘Soft’ poles that separate lanes
Unprotected left turns
Passing a cyclist
Crossing solid white lines
Bushes that protrude into lanes
Go through steam emanating from manholes ‘Zipper merge’ (when two lanes merge into one) Intersections with faint traffic lights
Heavy rain Low sun Going around cross-traffic that’s stuck in intersection
Overtrust
noun The growing tendency of humans to place unwarranted trust in, and defer to, automated technology
Most tasks are best completed with a mix of...
Human strengths
Machine strengths
Judgement Empathy Creativity Improvisation Leadership Mode shifting
Following rules Analysis Speed Accuracy Repetition Always on
Human Machine Interlace
Human strengths
Machine strengths
Judgement Empathy Creativity Improvisation Leadership Mode shifting
Following rules Analysis Speed Accuracy Repetition Always on
AV technologies will first help make human drivers safer
Volvo driver monitoring
1/3 of road accidents in the US are caused by intoxication NHTSA
Volvo driver monitoring
?
Safer interventions
Detection
Interventions
Eyes closed Swerving Lack of steering Slow reactions Eyes looking down
Driver prompts Limiting speed Stop and park Call assistance
?
S Trends day
Shared kerbspace
Slide
27
Cities are becoming more interventionist
Reducing air quality and congestion have become top priorities ... balanced with meeting economic goals
Zonification Urban zoning
Dynamic kerbspace
Fixed zones
Dynamic zones
Crit’Air scheme – When entering Paris or Lyon, vehicles must display an emissions sticker – Authorities can restrict which vehicles can enter when air quality drops
Digital kerb management Dynamically manage where and when vehicles park, pick-up/set-down and unload
City benefits – Raise road and kerb productivity – Generate new revenue streams to replace falling parking income – Reduce backoffice costs – Gain insights into road and kerb usage patterns
Coord.co Kerbside management
Booking ‘virtual’ loading bays
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Kerb by Grid Smarter Cities is a Kerbside management platform for smart cities
E Trends day
Electric everything
Slide
34
Slow car adoption
Cities investing in electrifying public transport
An explosion of start-up driven micromobility options
Electric cars are coming ... but slowly
Toyota’s planned range of electric and hybrid cars, annouced June 2019
Tesla’s global sales fell by 30 percent in Q1 2019
Brakes on adoption – Unlikely to reach price parity with petrol cars for another decade – Lack of charging infrastructure
... Chinese brands will probably dominate
C-More concept, LeapMotor
Chinese EV advantages – A state investment priority for over a decade – 61EV brands and counting – Half the worlds EV charging stations are in China
Chinese infrastructure is already ahead
Shenzen’s Minle EV charging station
Chinese EV advantages – A state investment priority for over a decade – 61EV brands and counting – Half the worlds EV charging stations are in China
Electric buses are leading the way
China is way out ahead
Explosion in new formats Lightweight (sub-500kg) Sub 3 mile journeys Shared and electric
Many love e-scooters
but not everyone
Especially cities
Munich police stopping rider to breathalyse him
City backlash – Munich cracks down on growing trend of ‘drink-riding’ – London bans them outright
Race to breakeven
Innovation is still needed
Increased battery life Interchangeable, rechargeable batteries will reduce cost of ‘juicers’
Sturdier scooters Better materials, efficient construction and larger wheels
Thank you
C A S E Connecting to everything
Augmented driving
Shared kerbspace
Electric everything
26 BOO 14 .05. KED :00 18
26RESER 14 .05. VED :00 18
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