The shape of Title things to come Final presentation Kevin McCullagh
00 XXX March 2016 2014
Core My journey message
Mech Eng
Industrial design
Product strategy
Title Sub-heading
Title Subtitle
Title Sub-heading
Title Sub-heading
Title Sub-heading
Section
Title 1 line
Clarity at the front-end
Slide 9
Section
Title 1 line
Slide 10
‘ You can use an eraser on the drafting table or a sledge hammer on the construction site.’ Frank Lloyd Wright
Product strategy
Working out what to do next around products ...and why
Consumer Tech
Transportation
Joining the dots between opportunities, strategy and management
Opportunity scoping
Strategy development
Design management
Consumer research
Experience vision
Organisation and culture
Market analysis
Value conception
Capability development
Industry foresight
Portfolio planning
Tools and processes
‘ Strategy must be created from the future backwards.’
Strategy from the future backwards 2015
2016
2017
Gary Hamel
2018
2019
2020
Section
Slide 16
Title future The 1 line is hazy
Core message Cynicism
‘ Never make forecasts – especially about the future’ Sam Goldwyn
Future is too important Title Subtitle to be left to charlatans
‘ The future is part of every designer’s job description.’ Mark Newson
Foresight
Being ‘ prescient about the size and shape of tomorrow’s opportunities’
Foresight
Being ‘ prescient about the size and shape of tomorrow’s opportunities’ by building an ‘assumption base about the future’
Foresight
Being ‘ prescient about the size and shape of tomorrow’s opportunities’ by building an ‘assumption base about the future’ based on ‘deep insights into the trends.’ Gary Hamel & C.K. Prahalad, ‘Competing for the Future’, 1994
Foresight
Makes sense of a world in flux Situates strategy within a future context
Foresight
Makes sense of a world in flux Situates strategy within a future context But’s it’s not about predicting the future.
Section
Trends provide reference points in a future context
Frame and focus
Section
Title 1 line
Slide 26
Section
Title 1 line
Focus on a small number of relevant trends
Types of trends Social, Economic, Technological (SET)
Design
Society
Economy
Technology
SET trend levels Meta trends
Global interchange
High-level dynamics with wide influence across many Macro trends
Economic stagnation
Macro trends Developments that transcend markets, sectors and demographics
Austerity culture
Polarised prosperity
Urban renaissance
Micro trends Particular dynamics with specific impact on certain markets, sectors and demographics
Downsizing
Access over ownership
Returnment
Lost generation
Squeezed middle classes
Super-rich migration
Hyper-dense city cores
Spaces of connection
Creative cities
Housing shortage
Micro enterprise
Small indulgences
Noveau Briche
Boomers have the cash
Space tourism
Cycling surge
Latinisation
Redefined town centres
Meta trends
Social fragmentation
High-level dynamics with wide influence across many Macro trends
Breakdown of traditional social ties leading to individualisation
Knowledge society Education, intelligence and creativity are more highly regarded
Climate anxiety
Network society
A range of concerns around climate change
People learning how to leverage and negotiate an increasingly connected world
Social
Cloud services
Pervasive role of server-side data storage and processing
Economic
Technological Internet of things
Networks of connected objects that sense and share information
Economic stagnation
Big data
Slow growth and declining living standards
Benefits of being able to store, process and access huge amounts of information
Global interchange
A new interdependent phase of globalisation, in which influence flows in many directions
Macro trends
Developments that transcend markets, sectors and demographics
Trust crisis
Search for authenticity Culture of emotions Ageing societies
Urban renaissance
Polarised prosperity
Labour imbalances
Learning diversity
Retail revolution
Austerity culture
Productivity push
Culture of fear
New conventions
Behaviour change
Consumerisation of healthcare
Sustainability tensions Hardware revival
Innovation imperative
Perpetual contact
Smart systems
Micro trends
Particular dynamics with specific impact on certain markets, sectors and demographics
Corporate backlash
Data security awareness
Moments of connection
Housing shortage Micro enterprise
Child tracking
Creative cities
Boomers have the cash
Smarter cities Cycling boom Redefined town centres Brand cathedrals Online education channels
Medical tourism
Integrated retail
Optimised life Connected Car
Access over ownership Simultaneous translation Behaviour sensing
Human augmentation Hybrid IT
Presumers
Corporate incubators
Civilian drones
Filter
Society Trust crisis
Search for authenticity Culture of emotions
Corporate backlash
Selection criteria Culture of fear
Data security awareness New conventions
Moments of connection Ageing Child tracking societies Creative cities Boomers have Urban the cash rennaissance Smarter cities Perpetual Cycling boom Polarised contact Redefined townLearning centres prosperity Brand cathedralsdiversity Housing shortage Optimised life Labour Medical tourism Online Retail education channels imbalances revolution Integrated retail Connected Car Micro enterprise Consumerisation of Access over ownership healthcare Austerity culture Simultaneous translation Behaviour change Behaviour sensing Smart Civilian drones systems
Resource volatility
Economy
Sustainability tensions
Human augmentation Hybrid IT Hardware revival Presumers
Innovation imperative Corporate incubators
Technology
Consumer focus Business relevance Inspiring
Design trend filtering relevance 1 Mobile Trends potentially applicable to mobile handsets
consumer relevance 2 Mass Trends that could appeal to and be executed for budget conscious Indians
3 Clustering Similar trends
were combined
workshop 4 Design Trends that related to hot issues were prioritised
Influence
Take a long view Long term
Time
Influence
Beware the fads
Long term
Short term
Time
Situate in a historical context Slide 53
Dynamic Futurism
Progressive and individual tech
A calm, simplified and usable expression of technology that is a little dull for some
Pioneering and masculine language that expresses premium technology
Very clean, simple, high-tech and human. But a little cheap and not quite stylish enough. Needs an update – some colour would improve it.
Popularity
Simple and comfortable tech.
Nice and simple forms which look comfortable and humane to touch. Josh Atkin, Head of Strategy, Jellymon Shanghai
CiCi Jiang, Design Researcher, Asus, Shanghai
Popularity
Slide 46
Soft Minimalism
Feels very different and individual. Prof. Huang Qun, School of Art & Design, University of technology, Wuhan
Very pioneering, sharp, strong and masculine. Will appeal to the guys who’ll like the edgy, sharp forms and the high-quality finish.
This has an edge! It is aggressive and masculine but still quite subtle and very high-tech.
Anonymous, Industrial and UX Designer, Lenovo, Beijing
Tom Shi, Founder, Leaping Creative, Guangzhou
Punkt DP01 (Jasper Morrison) Apple MacBook
Apple iMac
Motorola PEBL V6
Samsung SGH-E590 (Jasper Morrison)
HTC Hero
Apple iPhone 3G
Soft, human and popular. Always there and always will be. Hugo Caillerton, Founder, Sunlit Design, Guangzhou
2005
2006
2007
Evolution A well established trend in the West and Japan that is strongly associated with high design of British designer Jasper Morrison and his Japanese counterpart Naoto Fukasawa. The shift to understatement and the arrival of Apple in China in recent years has helped drive this trend mainstream in the last few years.
2008
2009
2010
2011
Inhibitors Drivers Too simple in its purist form
Shift to simplicity
CMF is perceived as cheap
Aspiration for Apple Humanised technology
Aava, Twist phone Plank, Miura stool
2012
2013
2014
2005
Lamborghini, Murcialago
2006
Nokia, Prism
2007
Relevance
Evolution
This trend is well suited to Nokia’s reduction design strategy and the wider shift to simplicity in China. It is seen as a simple expression of technology that is comfortable and easy use. However in its purest form it is seen by many as cheap, poor quality, simple and even dull.
With roots in early 20th century Futurism, this long wave niche trend is most evident in high-end furniture, homewares and transportation, most notably in Lamborghini’s recent range of supercars which arrived in China in 2006. While Nokia’s Prism and HTC’s Diamond exemplified the trend in mobile phones, there has been little recent application of the trend in the world of consumer electronics.
Male
/
Additional expert quotes
Female
HTC, Diamond
2008
2009
2010
2011
Inhibitors Drivers Too masculine
Premium expression of tech Strong personal expression Progressive associations
2012
2013
2014
Relevance A trend that is well suited to a premium expression of technology. In its most overt form, it would be too aggressive for Nokia’s reduction design strategy. However dialled-down interpretations could work well. Its expressive aesthetic suits the need for Hyper Social to communicate personal style but it has strong masculine connotations. Male
/
Additional expert quotes
Female
Visibility
Hype cycle
Peak of inflated Expectations
Plateau of productivity
Slope of enlightenment
Trough of disillusionment Technology trigger Time Source: Gartner
Visibility
Hype cycle Warped lens Peak of inflated Expectations
Plateau of productivity
Slope of enlightenment
Trough of disillusionment Technology trigger
Ravine of demise
Valley of oblivion Time
Tech is not inevitable
Section
Title 1 line
33%
don’t use their head-up display
Source: Automakers Spending Billions on Technologies That Many Consumers Don’t Use, J.D. Power, August 2015
Change and continuity
Multiple lens
Users
Target market Industry sector context
Experts
Trends
Market data
Section
Title 1 line
Sociology before technology
History or future?
Technology is only one driver of the future
Feminisation
The rise and social impact of women
Section
Title 1 line
We shape technology and technology shapes us
Get under the surface
Beyond pattern recognition
Once is an accident
Once is an accident Twice is a coincidence
Once is an accident Twice is a coincidence Three times is a trend!
Once is an accident Twice is a coincidence Three times is a trend! OK, but why?
Analysis
Have a point of view
Trends rarely concur Elaborate
Organic Maximlism Faceted Cubism
Exaggerated Details
Extravagant Organic
Crystal Detailing Gold & Black Urban Angst
Emphasised Feat...
Delight & Humour
Variable Wave Tapered Trapesium
Expressive
Protective Pattern
Wires
Futurism
Crisp Cutaways ObjectWeave Outline Square
Decorative Array
Pop Dots
Chinese Retro Manga Effects... Decorative Lines High Tech Pops
Browns & Coppers
Sleek Tech
Modern Heritage Creature Features Surface Pattern Pop Cute Micro Metal Tactility Patterned Colour
Playful
Natural Life
Senseware Floral Motif
Layered Skin
Olympic Pattern Emotional Exp.
Micro Repetition Organic Petal
Sequential Lines
Heritage PixilationHybrid
Macro Repetition
Tough Technical
Retro Futurism
Serious
White & Gold
Quilted
Pleated Surface
Granular Montage
Perforated Pattern
Splice Transition Modern Craft
Craft & Utility
Soft Utility
Restrained Organic
Long Life Design Real Material Com.
Pillowed Purity Minimalism
Truncated Solids Uber Matte Architectural Com..
Concrete Wood & Black Light Wood Contrasting Com. Bold Bodies Cool Minimalism
Frame White & Wood
Tonal Families Layered Tones Pop Light Follows Form Dual Colour
Smart Organic Organic Minimalism Casual Modularity
Warm Metal
Mechanic Cork
Retro Modern Lux Matte Black Charcoal
Dark Sumptuous ...
Naturals
Block Primaries
Bright Blocks
Romantic Hues Transparency Nude Hue Tones Pastel Accents Pastels Blocked TonalTinted GreysTransparency Vibrant Minimalism
Dimple
Soft Swell
Smooth Transition Fluid Wrap
MonoGradients Colour
Tonal Textures
Soft Minimalism
Primary Accents
Internal Glow Matte & Rubber ...
White Reflected Diffusion
Simple
POV ingredients
What is changing? And why? What opportunities do these changes enable? How can these opportunities be profited from?
POV tests
Credible Coherent Compelling Commercial
Mobility
Section
Title 1 line
Section
More1car Title linedeterrents and alternatives
Richer mobility service ecosystem New mobility modes
Squeeze on car use
Multi-modal apps
Higher parking costs
Seamless payments
Congestion charging Lower speed limits Traffic-calming measures Stricter emission laws No-car developments Limited car zones
1980s
2004
2014
2030
2040
High occupancy vehicle lanes in the USA
ZipCar launches
London congestion nears pre-charging levels
Helsinki eliminates private-car ownership
DfT expects 25% increase in traffic since 2015
1982
2003
2010
2020
2034
Athens Ring Odd/Even system
London congestion charging begins
Boris Bike scheme launched
Paris to ban diesel cars
Hamburg to ban cars from centre
Mobility landscape Mobility services
Multimodal payment
Multimodal planner
Taxi hailing apps
Navigation
Parking services
Cost and convenience
(Price / Comfort / Flexibility / Speed)
Taxi
Luxury chauffeur Private car
Minicab Hailable mini cab Mini cab that can be hailed with an app, e.g. Uber
Freefloating car sharing
Dynamic minibus Uses data to determine routes and offer point to point pick-ups and drop-offs, e.g. Bridj
Action zone
Cars are collected from and returned to, any parking space within a pre-defined area, e.g. DriveNow
Point-to-point car sharing
Motorbike
Bus
e-bike Bike Shared bike
Bicycle with integrated electrical motor for propulsion, e.g. GoCycle
5km
Back-to-base car sharing
Shared Scooter
Source:
2km
P2P car sharing
Metro
Walk
1km
For smaller (typically 3-5) pre-determined groups of users, e.g. Audi Unite
Car owners rent their cars directly to other consumers, e.g. RelayRides
Scooter Tram
Micro car sharing
10km
Typical urban journey length 15km+
Section
Title line Tallin1experiment City gave its 430,000 residents free access to public transport in an attempt to get cars off the road, decrease congestion and make the city more accessible to low-income residents.
+1.2% increase in demand for the service overall
Section
Titlesales Car 1 lineat all time high UK car sales hit all time record levels in 2015 Source: SMMT, 2015
+57% Forecasted rise in global car sales by 2030 Source: Euromonitor, 2015
2.65m 2.55m 2.45m 2.35m 2.25m 2.15m 2.05m 1.95m 1.85m 1.75m 2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Section
2025
Change
Continuity
Less diesel, more petrol hybrid
Private ownership will remain the dominant model
Less pollution, more congestion More driver-assist technologies
Slow growth of EVs, predominantly in city centre car clubs
Apple and Google will own Infotainment
Driverless cars will be just around corner...
Less UI
Section
Title 1 line
Slide 65
Section
Slide 66
Title 1 line Drivers are already facing information overload
17,000
Call-outs to the UK’s AA breakdown service per month from drivers baffled by unfamiliar warning lights
Source: The AA, September 2015
Section
Slide 67
Titleage An 1 line of distraction
Causes of workplace distraction – Open-plan offices – Emphasis on collaboration – Multi-tasking – Email / Social media – VoIP calls – Multiple devices
Section
Slide 68
Title 1 line Distraction is the third biggest cause of crashes after drink driving and speeding.
Source: The Role of HMI in Addressing Automated Vehicle Safety Issues, TU-Auto, 2016
Slide 69
Section
Title 1 line Handsfree doesn’t mean safe
Reduction in reaction times
56% 46% 18%
using a hand-held phone using a hands-free phone after drinking the legal limit of alcohol
Source: RAC & Transport Research Laboratory, 2008
Section
Slide 70
Title 1 line
The answer is not more screens #SiliconValleyDoesn’tHaveAllTheAnswers
The rise of ‘chat bots’
Section
Title 1 line
Slide 72
Section
Slide 73
Title 1 line Contextual awareness
Multiple contexts – traffic and weather conditions – vehicle surroundings – driver’s diary –d river behaviour, attention and likely comprehension – r obot’s confidence in handling road conditions
Section
Slide 74
Title 1 line
More natural interactions
Section
Slide 75
Title 1 line
Instinctive interactions
Section
Title 1visceral More line interactions
Source: Jaguar Land Rover Bike Sense. Seat shoulder taps the & rings a bicycle bell if it senses a cyclist near the car and Door handles ‘buzz’ to prevent doors being opened into the path of bikes
History as Cabins or future? simulators?
‘ hold strong opinions weakly… If you must forecast then forecast often – and be the first to prove yourself wrong.’ Paul Saffo
We join the dots @kevinmccull www.plan.london
Track and tack
Future context
Assumptions about developments that could influence the development of the service
Infrastructure / Legislation Weekend night tube
Technology
Ultra Low Emissions Zone
Crossrail
From September 2015, Jubilee, Victoria and most of the Piccadilly, Central and Northern tube lines will run all night on Fridays and Saturdays.
TfL proposal to limit road vehicles during business hours in central London to be zero or low emissions
Services will begin in May 2015 between Liverpool Street and Shenfield and will be extended to other parts of the route during 2018 and 2019
iBeacons
Smart watches
Some will introduce features that interface with cars
Bluetooth LE devices that aid accuracy of indoor positioning and local notifications
Contactless payment
5G networks
Fifth generation of mobile networks that will deliver dramatically faster connection speeds
Connected cars
Mass adoption as readers are more widely rolled out and RFID is integrated into phones and smart watches
Cars with internet connection deeply integrated into driver and passenger experience
Autonomous vehicles Level 2
Level 3
At least two controls can be automated in unison, such as adaptive cruise control in combination with lane keeping.
2015
2016
2017
Level 4
The driver can fully cede control of all safety-critical functions in certain conditions. The car senses when conditions require the driver to retake control and provides a ‘sufficiently comfortable transition time’ for the driver to do so.
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Fully driverless cars maybe available but not affordable
2024
2025