Title Setting the scene Final Kevinpresentation McCullagh
00 XXX 2014
Cars used to be an unalloyed good
The long squeeze and alternatives
Squeeze on car use
Richer mobility service ecosystem
Higher parking costs Congestion charging
New mobility modes
Lower speed limits
Multi-modal apps
Traffic-calming measures
Seamless payments
Stricter emission laws No-car developments Limited car zones
1980s
2004
2014
2030
2040
High occupancy vehicle lanes in the USA
ZipCar launches
London congestion nears pre-charging levels
Helsinki eliminates private-car ownership
DfT expects 25% increase in traffic since 2015
1982
2003
2010
2020
2034
Athens Ring Odd/Even system
London congestion charging begins
Boris Bike scheme launched
Paris to ban diesel cars
Hamburg to ban cars from centre
There are more alternatives to car ownership now
Mobility services
Multimodal planner
Multimodal payment
Taxi hailing apps
Navigation
Parking services
Cost and convenience
(Price / Comfort / Flexibility / Speed)
Taxi
Luxury chauffeur Private car
Minicab Hailable mini cab Mini cab that can be hailed with an app, e.g. Uber
Freefloating car sharing
Dynamic minibus Uses data to determine routes and offer point to point pick-ups and drop-offs, e.g. Bridj
Action zone
Cars are collected from and returned to, any parking space within a pre-defined area, e.g. DriveNow
Point-to-point car sharing
Motorbike
Bus
e-bike Bike Shared bike
Bicycle with integrated electrical motor for propulsion, e.g. GoCycle
2km
5km
P2P car sharing
Back-to-base car sharing
Metro Shared Scooter
Walk
1km
For smaller (typically 3-5) pre-determined groups of users, e.g. Audi Unite
Car owners rent their cars directly to other consumers, e.g. RelayRides
Scooter Tram
Micro car sharing
10km
Typical urban journey length 15km+
Title 1 line But cars have never been so popular
+57% Forecasted rise in global car sales by 2030
UK car sales
Euromonitor, 2015
2.65m 2.55m 2.45m 2.35m 2.25m 2.15m 2.05m 1.95m 1.85m 1.75m 2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
R
Modes share of daily journeys B u s/T r
am
Wal k TFL, Travel in London: Report 8 (2015)
Car
ail
% 12
Tube
20%
Other
% 35
% 24
5%
% 14
The car is London’s popular form of transport
Most London households have a car
54% of households have at least one car TFL, ‘Roads Task Force – Technical Note 12: How many cars are there in London and who owns them?’ (2013)
London is capital of gridlock
40% of UK’s gridlock is in London PRNewsire, ‘Gridlock on UK Roads Costs the Country’s Economy £4.3 Billion’ (2012)
London’s congestion is getting worse ...
82hrs 2013
96hrs 2014
Average time drivers spent stuck in traffic FT, ‘London becomes Europe’s gridlock capital’ (2015)
... and London is growing
10 m 2030
8.6m 2016
Mayor of London, ‘Mayor calls for new measures to secure the success of London's roads’ press release, February 2016
Young people still aspire to own their own car
75% of Gen Y drivers believe they are likely to be using their own, personal car in 5 years time
GFK, ‘Gen Y Drivers Are Much More Likely to Embrace Connected Car Features’, January 2015 (US, UK, Germany, Brazil, Russia, and China)
Better public transport isn’t always the answer
Tallin experiment City gave its 430,000 residents free access to public transport in an attempt to get cars off the road, decrease congestion and make the city more accessible to low-income residents.
+1.2% increase in demand for the service overall Fast Company, ‘Why The World’s Largest Experiment In Free Public Transportation Failed’, 2014
1. Will Londoners trade private cars for on-demand access?
Gartner predicts that by 2020
10 % of today’s urban vehicle owners will replace them with on-demand vehicle access
Thilo Koslowski, Creating Innovations in the Automotive and Smart Mobility Industry Primer for 2016, Gartner, January 2016
2. Can ‘smart’ technology squeeze more of existing roads?
3. What are the options for increasing road capacity?
Forum Uber, car clubs and driverless cars:
The end of the road for urban car ownership?
#PlanFrm @BloombergNEF @planstrategic
Car ownership alternatives Survey results 15 March 2016
Why do this research?
Decades of pressure on cars
Why do this research?
Decades of pressure on cars Wide range of alternatives
Why do this research?
Decades of pressure on cars Wide range of alternatives But what do consumers think?
3 Hunches
3 Hunches Most urban car owners intend to hang onto their cars
3 Hunches Most urban car owners intend to hang onto their cars
Electric vehicles will make car clubs more attractive
3 Hunches Most urban car owners intend to hang onto their cars
Electric vehicles will make car clubs more attractive
Cheap and quality minicabs might see some ditching their cars
What we did Car clubs
FREE
FREE
Free fuel
Driving in bus lanes
Free parking
Mini cab prices plunging
Who we spoke to n = 883
Age 18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
12%
24%
25%
13%
17%
7%
Where people live/work
Zone 1
Car ownership / access status
30% Private car
Someone elses car
Car sharing
No access
Zone 2 Zone 3-4
57%
13%
4%
25%
Zone 5-8
19%
23%
28%
Younger people are more likely to consider a car club
Question: To what extent might you be interested in an alternative to owning a private car for example a car for shared use? % shown = people who answered 4 or 5 out of 5 where 5 = extremely interested 883 respondents, results are statistically significant
22% 18-44 yrs
11% 44+ yrs
People who have access to a car are more likely to consider a car club
Question: To what extent might you be interested in an alternative to owning a private car for example a car for shared use? % shown = people who answered 4 or 5 out of 5 where 5 = extremely interested 883 respondents, results are statistically significant
23% access
11% own
People who live or work in zones 1-4 are more likely to consider a car club
Question: To what extent might you be interested in an alternative to owning a private car for example a car for shared use? % shown = people who answered 4 or 5 out of 5 where 5 = extremely interested 883 respondents, results are statistically significant
22% zones 1-4
9% zones 5-8
Question
What % of people would give up their car in favour of car sharing alternatives?
100%
What % of people would give up their car in favour of car sharing alternatives?
Question: To what extent might you be interested in an alternative to owning a private car for example a car for shared use? 509 respondents
10% 0%
not at all interested
11% of car owners are very interested in car sharing as an neutral alternative to their 11% own car very interested
70%
19%
Face value
not at all interested
What % of people would give up their car in favour of car sharing alternatives... i f they didn’t have to pay for fuel? Question: Would you give up your car or the idea of owning a car, if you didn’t have to pay for fuel with this shared car? 509 respondents
neutral
11% very interested
FREE
Face value
Free fuel
55%
definitely not
23% of car owners would definitely give up their car if a car club offered them free fuel
22% 23% neutral definitely
FREE
Face value
Free fuel
definitely not
What % of people would give up their car in favour of car sharing alternatives...
23% neutral definitely
if they could drive in bus lanes? Question: Would you give up your car or the idea of owning a car, if this shared car were allowed in bus lanes? 509 respondents
FREE
Face value
Free fuel
Bus lanes
16% of car owners would definitely give up their car if a car club car was allowed in bus lanes
definitely not
55%
neutral
22%
16% definitely
FREE
Face value
Free fuel
Bus lanes
definitely not
What % of people would give up their car in favour of car sharing alternatives...
neutral
16% definitely
if parking was free? Question: Would you give up your car or the idea of owning a car, if this shared car allowed you to park for free across London? 509 respondents
FREE
FREE
Face value
Free fuel
Bus lanes
Free parking
50%
definitely not
31% of car owners would definitely give up their car if a car club car could park for free
19% 31% neutral definitely
FREE
FREE
Face value
Free fuel
Bus lanes
Free parking
definitely not
What % of people would give up their car
31% neutral
if Minicabs halved in price?
definitely
FREE
FREE
Question: Would you give up your car or the idea of owning a car, if minicabs/Uber were to half in price (e.g. £4 for a 30 minute trip)? 509 respondents
Face value
Free fuel
Bus lanes
Free parking
Minicab prices
55%
definitely not
24% of car owners would definitely give up their car if minicabs were to half in price
22% 24% neutral definitely
FREE
FREE
Face value
Free fuel
Bus lanes
Free parking
Minicab prices
definitely not
What % of people would give up their car in favour of alternatives?
70%
66%
55%
22% neutral
19%
18%
definitely
11%
16%
23%
50%
19%
31%
59%
17% 24%
FREE
FREE
Face value
Bus lanes
Free fuel
Free parking
Minicab prices
definitely not
Interestingly, similar proportions reflected at the full sample view
70% 66% 55% 50%
59%
57% 55% 43% 40% 48%
26% 22% 19%
19% 17%
25%
23% 31% 24%
19%
20% 22%
25%
18%
neutral definitely
11% 16%
Car owners 509 respondents
20% 31% 40% 30%
Full sample 883 respondents
To conclude
1 2 3 4
Most owners are not open to giving up their cars Young londoners are more open to alternatives Suburbanites are least open to giving up their cars Car clubs with free parking are the most attractive alternative
3 Hunches Most urban car owners intend to hang onto their cars
Electric vehicles will make car clubs more attractive
Cheap and quality minicabs might see some ditching their cars
3 Hunches Most urban car owners intend to hang onto their cars
Electric vehicles will make car clubs more attractive
Cheap and quality minicabs might see some ditching their cars
3 Hunches Most urban car owners intend to hang onto their cars
Electric vehicles will make car clubs more attractive
Cheap and quality minicabs might see some ditching their cars
3 Hunches Most urban car owners intend to hang onto their cars
Electric vehicles will make car clubs more attractive
Cheap and quality minicabs might see some ditching their cars
We join the dots
www.plan.london