The Economic, Fiscal & Labor Market Impacts of Starting Schools After Labor Day

The Economic, Fiscal, Labor Market, and School Calendar Impacts of Starting School After Labor Day In New Hampshire

September 2018

Prepared by:

brian@poleconresearch.com

Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................. 3 I.

INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................... 4

II.

TRENDS IN SCHOOL START DATES IN NEW HAMPSHIRE ........................................................... 5 A.

III. A. B. IV. A. B. V.

MORE NEW HAMPSHIRE STUDENTS START BEFORE LABOR DAY ............................ 6 EVIDENCE OF THE IMPACT OF START DATES ON TOURISM SPENDING ................................. 8 IMPACT ON ROOMS AND MEALS E XPENDITURES ..................................................... 8 THE STATISTICAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN START DATES AND SPENDING.............10 DIRECT TOURISM SPENDING IMPACTS ..........................................................................................14 MODEL-BASED PROJECTIONS ...............................................................................15 SURVEY AND CENSUS-BASED PROJECTIONS ..........................................................19 TOTAL, INCLUDING MULTIPLIER, ECONOMIC IMPACTS ..........................................................21

A. VI.

REGIONAL IMPACTS .............................................................................................23 STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE IMPACTS ............................................................23

VII. IMPACT ON YOUTH LABOR FORCE .................................................................................................25 VIII. IMPACT ON SCHOOL CALENDARS ...................................................................................................28 A. B. IX.

IMPACT OF LONGER SCHOOL DAYS ......................................................................31 WEATHER RELATED IMPLICATIONS ......................................................................34 CONCLUSIONS .......................................................................................................................................35

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Executive Summary The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between public school start dates and recreation and tourism spending in New Hampshire. The study analyzes the impact that having public schools in New Hampshire start after Labor Day would have on the state’s economy, state and local revenues, the teenage labor force and employment, the implications for school instructional calendars and school days, as well as the number of students and families that would be affected if started after Labor Day. Key Study Findings Include: 

The percentage of public school students starting the school year after Labor Day has declined by half since 1999.



Real, inflation adjusted rooms and meals spending in New Hampshire has grown more slowly in July, August and September than in other months since the 1990s, roughly coinciding with the decline in percentage of students starting school after Labor Day



There is a statistically significant relationship between the percentage of public school students in New Hampshire starting school after Labor Day and summer rooms and meals expenditures in the state.



If all public schools had started after Labor Day in 2017, rooms and meals spending in New Hampshire during August and September would have increased by $10.4 million and all recreation and tourism spending by a total of $17.3 million.



Depending on the date in September Labor Day falls (Sept.1-7), tourism expenditures are estimated to increase by between $14.3 and $20.3 million (in 2017 dollars) if all NH schools started after Labor Day.



The total economic impacts in New Hampshire of starting schools after Labor Day is estimated to be between $24.1 and $34.2 million (in 2017 dollars) depending on the date in September that Labor Day falls.



Starting schools after Labor Day would increase state and local revenue by between $1.7 and $2.8 million (in 2017 dollars).



The number of individuals ages 16-18 has declined and labor force participation in New Hampshire among that age group has declined sharply since 2000. The decline is exacerbated as the teenage workforce in New Hampshire shrinks by an average of about 4,000 before Labor Day when high school students return to school, a time when seasonal industries that employ a large number of teenage workers have a high need for teenage labor to meet Labor Day and vacation-related demand.



Teenage workers lose an estimated $1.3 million in wages by having to return to school before Labor Day.

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

A majority of New Hampshire public school students would have to add three or fewer school days in June or seven minutes or less to the length of the of the school day to start school after Labor Day and still satisfy instructional time mandates

I. Introduction Since 1980 the percentage of school children across the country beginning the school year after Labor Day has fallen sharply. Examining school calendars in New Hampshire between 1999 and 2017 reveals a similar trend. In recent years a number of states have debated proposals mandating schools start after Labor Day and several states have adopted regulations requiring schools to start either after September 1st or after Labor Day.1 Recognizing that there are many issues to consider in any proposal regarding school start dates, including impacts on family vacation time, tourism activity, state and local revenues, student learning, and local control of school calendars, New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu recently established a committee to examine the varied impacts of a starting school post-Labor Day in New Hampshire.

This study seeks to inform discussions over the implications of having all public schools in New Hampshire begin their instructional year after Labor Day. Research in a number of states that have considered mandating post-Labor Day starts suggests that starting school after Labor Day would lengthen the summer tourism season and increase tourism expenditures and recreation and tourism-related state and local government revenues.

Prior studies of the economic impacts of post-Labor Day School starts, conducted in other states, have generally been limited to prospective estimates of the potential impacts on tourism-related expenditures. This study improves on methods used to produce forecasts of the impacts of starting school after Labor Day by using sophisticated econometric techniques to document the impact that later school start dates has had on prior year tourism-related expenditures in New Hampshire over the past several decades. Controlling for economic conditions in the state, school enrollments, the percentage of students starting school before and after Labor Day, as well as the date in September on which Labor Day fell in each of the past 20 years, we find that starting school after Labor Day has a positive impact on meals and rooms expenditures in NH during the months of August and September, and a positive impact overall on summer rooms and meals expenditures.

1

Michigan, Maryland, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Virginia

4

The study also documents the impact that earlier school start dates have on the state’s youth labor force and their earnings, as well as on industries that rely on teenage workers during the summer months.

Finally, our research uses data on school start dates and school enrollments for all districts in the state to determine the number of students and families that would be affected by starting school after Labor Day, including the implications if a post Labor-Day start required additional school days be added in June, or as an alternative, adding additional minutes to each school day to maintain the same amount of instruction time as with a pre-Labor Day school start date.

The findings of this report indicate that there would be substantial economic, fiscal, and labor market benefits associated with having all of New Hampshire’s public schools start after Labor Day. II. Trends in School Start Dates in New Hampshire Nationally and in New Hampshire the trend over the past several decades is for more school districts to begin the school year prior to Labor Day or earlier in August. As recently as 1988 over one-half of all school districts in the country began the school year after Labor Day. The percentage dropped sharply during the 1990s and by 2000 the figure stood at 24 percent.2 Although there is no official tally, the number of districts starting after Labor Day is now estimated at about 25 percent, although there has been a trend toward starting earlier in August compared with school start dates in 2000.3 This study obtained school calendars and school start dates by district in New Hampshire from 1999 forward from the New Hampshire Department of Education. Combining school start data with enrollment data by district allows our research to determine the number and percentage of public school students in NH that started the school year before and after Labor Day for each year between 1999 and 2017. Focusing on the number and percentage of public school students starting before and after Labor Day rather than on the number and percentage of school districts

2

Keller, Bess, “August Openings Put Schools On Hot Seat”, Education Week, August 8, 2001. Mykerez, E. and Kostandini, G, “Do Families Vacation More in the Summer When School Starts After Labor Day?” Tourism Center, University of Minnesota, July 2012.

3 “Back to school: Why August is the New September,” CNN, August 5, 2015. Accessed at: https://www.cnn.com/2015/08/04/living/school-start-dates-august-parents-feat/index.html.

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is important for determining the true impacts post-Labor Day start dates. The large variation in enrollments among NH school districts means the percentage of districts starting before and after Labor Day is not fully correlated with the percentage of students who start school after Labor Day, and thus the number and percentage of families with public school children that are affected by school start dates. An accurate tally of the number of students and families affected by pre- and post-Labor Day starts in New Hampshire over time is necessary to assess the impact that school start dates have on vacation and recreation spending by families with public school children in the state.

A. More New Hampshire Students Start Before Labor Day Examining school district start dates in New Hampshire from 1999 to 2017 reveals several notable trends: 1. Labor Day can fall between the 1st and 7th of September and the later the date on which Labor Day falls, generally the lower the percentage of students starting school after Labor Day. Figure 1 illustrates this point. For each possible date on which Labor Day falls (September 1-7), the chart shows the mean percentage of students that started school after Labor Day when Labor Day fell on that date between 1999 and 2017. The chart also shows the signifcant decline in students starting school after Labor Day when Labor Day falls later than September 4th.

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2. The percentage of public school students beginning the school year after Labor Day has been declining. Averaging the percentage of students starting school after Labor Day between 1999 and 2008 and comparing that percentage to the average between 2009 and 2018, there has been about a Table 1 50 percent decline over the past % of NH Students Starting School After decade. Each time period contains a Labor Day mix of dates on which Labor Day falls 1999-2008 2009-2017 but as Table 1 shows, both the average Mean 23.8% 12.3% and median percentage of students Median 22.8% 13.5% starting school after Labor Day in the Source: PolEcon Analysis of data from the NH Dept. of Education and U.S. Dept. of Education years from 2009 to 2017 is approximately one-half the percentage that started after Labor Day during the 1999 to 2008 time period.

3. Even when Labor Day falls earlier in September (Sept. 1-4) the trend over the past two decades has been for more students to start school before Labor Day. As documented above, when Labor Day falls later in the first week of September the percentage of students starting school after Labor Day declines. Still, the trend has been for earlier school start dates even when looking at Labor Days that fall on the same date (Figure 2). When Labor Day falls on the 5th day of September or later the percentage of students starting school before Labor Day drops sharply. Since 1999 Labor Day has fallen on September 7th just twice (2009 and 2015) and in those years the percentage of students starting school before Labor Day was 1.2 and 5.2 percent respectively.

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III. Evidence of the Impact of Start Dates on Tourism Spending With the exception of studies by Mykerezi and Kostandini (2012) at the University of Minnesota,4 and the Anderson Economic Group (2016),5 most prior studies of post-Labor Day school start dates have been prospective analyses that assume (without testing the hypothesis) earlier school start dates have negative impacts on tourism and recreation spending in a state.

This study examined historical spending on restaurants and lodgings in New Hampshire to assess whether there is a relationship between the percentage of public school students in New Hampshire starting school after Labor Day and real, inflation adjusted spending over time.

Documenting the extent to which school start dates have affected recreation and tourism-related expenditures in New Hampshire is critical to accurately estimating the impact that mandating all schools start after Labor Day start would have on expenditures in the future.

A. Impact on Rooms and Meals Expenditures Section II of this report documented that the percentage of public school students starting school after Labor Day has declined since 1999, the earliest date for which school start data for all schools was available from the NH Department of Education. If the trend of more students starting school before Labor Day has affected tourism-related expenditures in the state then we would expect that trend to be reflected in data on expenditures at NH restaurants and lodgings in the months of August, September, and based on the findings of Mykerezi and Kostandini, other summer months as well.

August Tourism Expenditures Have Grown More Slowly Spending at restaurants and lodgings are subject to taxation in New Hampshire. In addition to collecting taxes on these expenditures, the NH Department of Revenue Administration reports monthly data on receipts (expenditures by customers) from operators of these facilities in the state. Examining monthly expenditure data from 1991 on and adjusting expenditures for inflation shows a discernable trend of slower growth in expenditures in August that coincides with New Hampshire’s trend toward earlier school start dates. Figure 3 compares growth in rooms and meals expenditures during the months June, July, August, and September in New Hampshire 1991. The chart shows each month as an index number that shows the total percentage change in real, inflation adjusted expenditures for each month over the 1991 to 2017

4 5

Mykerez, E. and Kostandini, G, op. cit.

Anderson Economic Group, LLC, “The School Year Calendar and Tourism in Michigan,” September, 2016.

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time period. The chart indicates that expenditure growth in August slowed relative to other summer months beginning in the 1990s. As of 2017, August tourism-related expenditures had grown 15 to 20 percent more slowly than expenditures in other summer months.

Total Summer Expenditures Have Grown More Slowly Researchers at the University of Minnesota examined data from five states with mandates affecting post-Labor Day school start dates. Their research found that starting school before Labor Day decreases the probability that a family with school children will take a vacation during the months of August or September. The researchers note that this effect is “completely absent in families without children.�6 In addition, their research found that families did not completely compensate for the reduced August and September vacations by increasing vacations in May through July. Examining meals and rooms expenditure data since 1991from the NH Department of Revenue shows that when comparing the inflation adjusted expenditures on rooms and meals during summer months with non-summer months, spending in the summer months has grown more slowly, roughly coinciding with the trend in a lower percentage of NH students starting school after Labor Day. Figure 4 shows that inflation adjusted expenditures on meals and rooms during summer months have grown nearly 20% slower than have expenditures

6

Mykerez, E. and Kostandini, G, op. cit

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during non-summer months. The same holds true when expenditures during July and August or August and September are combined and compared to non-summer months. These data support earlier findings that when pre-Labor Day school start dates reduce the number of recreation and vacation days taken in August or September by families with school-age children, families do not necessarily compensate for earlier school starts by taking more recreation and vacation days during June or July.

B. The Statistical Relationship Between Start Dates and Spending The analysis above shows an apparent relationship between the trend toward more students starting school before Labor Day and slower growth in rooms and meals spending in New Hampshire. Still, many factors influence the level of these expenditures, including economic conditions, population changes, and weather to name just a few. The apparent relationship between school start dates and rooms and meals expenditures may diminish or even disappear when tested using more sophisticated statistical and econometric methods.

This study uses econometric methods and models to test whether the percentage of NH public school students starting school after Labor Day has a statistically significant impact on real, inflation adjusted, rooms and meals expenditures in New Hampshire during summer months when other factors are also considered. Our research uses models that control for the effects of economic conditions, population, the number of public school children in the state, the

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percentage of school children starting school after labor day, the date (September 1 through 7) on which Labor Day falls, as well as others that may influence rooms and rooms expenditures in the state.

A number of variables thought to influence spending on rooms and meals were tested in different models, using ordinary least squares regression techniques, to determine if the percentage of NH students starting school after Labor Day affects meals and rooms expenditures in summer months. Our results indicate that it does.

More Students Starting After Labor Day Increases Tourism Expenditures Results of our analysis show that the larger the percentage of NH students starting school after Labor Day, the higher are rooms and meals expenditures in the state during the late August and early September time period. The impact of more students starting school after Labor Day is statistically significant at either the 90, or 95, or 99 percent level of confidence depending on the model specification. Results also show that July rooms and meals expenditures may decrease by a small amount but the relationship between the percentage of students starting school after Labor Day and July rooms and meals expenditures was far from statistically significant and thus should be included in our impact calculations.

The impacts of all public school students starting school after Labor Day varies by county. Not surprisingly, meals and rooms expenditures in counties that are more dependent on summer tourism activity evidence a stronger relationship between the percentage of NH students starting school after Labor Day and meals and rooms expenditures in August and September.

When only Belknap, Carrol, Coos, Grafton, Rockingham and Hillsborough Counties are included in the analysis the percentage of students starting school after Labor Day is significantly related to meals and rooms expenditures in August and September with a very high, 99 percent level of confidence. When all counties are included the confidence level in the relationship between post-Labor Day school starts and rooms and meals expenditures drops to a lower but still significant 90 percent level of confidence.7 Table 2 presents the variables included in the model that best specify the impact of school start dates on rooms and meals expenditures in New Hampshire during the month of August.

7

All counties were included as a dichotomous variable indicating whether they are a tourism dependent or not tourism dependent county.

11

There are

is they show either a

Table 2 Impact of Variables on August/September Rooms and Meals Expenditures in NH Impact on Real August & September Rooms and Significance* Variable Meals Expenditures .000 NH Population Positive as Population Grows NH Unemployment Rate (Surrogate for Economic Negative as Unemployment Conditions) Rate Rises .001 Public School Enrollment in Negative as Enrollment NH Increases .000

positive or negative

Date (1-7) That Labor Day Falls

Positive With Each Day Later in September it Falls

.136

Percentage of Students Starting School After Labor Day

Positive as a Higher Percentage Starts After Labor Day

.009

several notable aspects to the results presented in Table 2. First, all of the variables in the model show the correct or expected sign (that

relationship with rooms and meals expenditures in the expected direction).

For example, we

*Significance here refers to the probability that the results obtained occurred by chance and are not indicative of the actual relationship between the variable and rooms and meals expenditures. Thus, we can be 99% certain that the percentage of NH public school students starting school after Labor Day is likely to have a positive impact on rooms and meals expenditures in August when other variables in the model are held constant.

expected that population growth in the state would increase expenditures and higher unemployment rates would reduce them, all other variables or factors held constant. Similarly, more public school students implies more families that may be constrained or affected by school start dates and thus would have a negative impact on expenditures unless all schools started after Labor Day. The later in September Labor Day falls the longer the summer vacation season is thought to be and thus we would expect more tourism-related spending to occur both later in August as well as in September. Finally, the research literature indicates that pre-Labor Day school starts reduce the probability of a family with school-age children taking a vacation during the Labor Day holiday, shortening the summer vacation season and lowering overall summer recreation and tourism-related spending.

Discussion and Caveats The variables in the model explain most of the variation in meals and rooms expenditures in each month of summer and indicate that school start dates have their greatest impact on expenditures in August. This is consistent with the belief that pre-Labor Day school starts shorten the summer vacation season. In addition, there are a limited number of days (1-7) in September that could be affected by pre-or post-Labor Day starts. A majority of students in NH start school during the last week of August, refining this analysis to include the percentage of students starting school on each date in August or September (rather than just the percentage

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starting before and after Labor Day) would yield more insight into the sensitivity of recreation and tourism-related expenditures to earlier (not just pre and post-Labor Day) school starts.

The variables included in our statistical models contain some collinearity, meaning that some of the variables used to explain changes in rooms and meals spending are related to one another (they vary together or co-vary). For instance, the date on which Labor Day falls and the percentage of students starting school after Labor Day are related. These covariations are not strong enough to result in unreliable and unstable statistical results but they do introduce some caution when interpreting the exact percentage of variation in rooms and meals expenditures that each variable in the model is responsible for.

Finally, based on model results, the implication of having had 100 percent of NH’s public school students start school after Labor Day in 2017 would have been an additional $53 million dollars in late August and early September rooms and meals expenditures. An increase in expenditures of that magnitude, just from NH families, is not reasonable based on the number of additional vacation and day drips that are expected to be taken by NH families if all schools start after Labor Day (discussed in the following section of this report). Our belief is that the percentage of NH students starting school after Labor Day variable in our model is likely capturing regional (as well as NH) trends in school start dates. That is, rather than just measuring the percentage of NH students starting school before and after Labor Day, it is also likely an indicator, or measure (although not exact), of the percentage of students in the Northeast that start school before and after Labor Day. Because a majority of tourism-related summer expenditures in NH come from residents of neighboring and Northeast states,8 a correlation between NH’s school start dates and school start dates in neighboring states would be reflected in NH’s rooms and meals data. The result, as is the case with our findings, would then be NH school start dates showing a much greater impact on tourism expenditures than expected based on the number of affected NH families alone. Our estimates of the economic impacts of a post-Labor Day school start (presented later in this report) account for this by adjusting results by the percentage of summer tourism-related expenditures in the state that are made by NH residents (as opposed to out-of-state residents). The adjustments used is based on visitor surveys conducted for the state’s Travel and Tourism Division.

8

This is evident from our review of summer visitation surveys conducted for the NH Travel and Tourism Division between 2004 and 2017.

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The results of our econometric analysis of factors affecting summer rooms and meals spending support the findings of prior researchers that by shortening the summer vacation season, earlier school start dates negatively affect vacation expenditures of families with school age children during the months of August and September. Having documented the negative impact that pre-Labor Day school start dates have on summer rooms and meals spending in New Hampshire, the next section of this report estimates the additional recreation and tourism-related spending that would result if all students in NH started the school year after Labor Day.

IV. Direct Tourism Spending Impacts To estimate the additional recreation and tourism-related expenditures in New Hampshire that would result if all public school students in NH started the school year after Labor Day, we used two separate approaches: 1. The first approach used the results from our econometric modeling, and the measures (coefficients) of how much the percentage of NH students starting school after Labor Day and other variables affect summer rooms and meals expenditures. The models used data from 1999 to 2017 to determine the relationship between school starts and rooms and meals spending. The ratio of rooms and meals spending to the total spending of vacationers was then used to estimate overall effects on tourism spending from starting school after Labor Day. 2. The second approach used results from survey questions administered to NH residents by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, U.S. Census Bureau data on the number of families with children in NH, school enrollment data from the NH Department of Education, and per person and per trip tourism-related expenditure data collected for the NH Division of Travel and Tourism Development. The UNH survey asked whether families would be more or less likely to take a vacation during the Labor Day holiday if schools started after Labor Day, and if so, would they be more likely to vacation in NH or outside of the state. Survey results were broken out by families with and without children. These results were applied to the number of families in NH with public school children and were used to produce an expected number of additional vacation trips.

Applying average spending patterns from NH travel surveys produced our estimate of additional spending from a post-Labor Day school start.

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A. Model-Based Projections Several models and many variables were tested for their ability to accurately explain variations in rooms and meals spending in NH during the summer months over a 20-year period.

Models explaining expenditure variations for each month individually, for all summer months combined, and for combinations of months (i.e. July and August, August and September) were tested. The models with the highest degree of accuracy included those for individual months.

The individual monthly impacts of post-Labor Day school starts were first estimated then summed to determine the overall impact of a post-Labor Day school start in New Hampshire.

The following variables are included in the equations used to estimate the impact of post-Labor Day school starts on rooms and meals expenditures.

R&M = Real (Inflation Adjusted) Rooms and Meals Expenditures = Constant

β = Variable Coefficients

= Error term

β(POP) = NH Population β(UR) = NH Unemployment Rate β(Enroll)= Public School Enrollment in NH β(Date) = Date (1-7) on Which Labor Day Falls β(PostLD) = Percentage of Public School Students Starting School After Labor Day β(County) = County Variable The Estimating Equation: &

=

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

The Impact on Tourism Expenditures The impact on rooms and meals spending of all public school students in New Hampshire starting school after Labor Day was first estimated for August and September (July results suggest a slight negative impact but results did not come close to showing a statistically significant relationship and are not included in our final calculations). We entered actual 2017 data on NH’s population, enrolled students, unemployment rate, etc. into the equation above.

Instead of entering the actual percentage of students who started school after Labor Day,

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however, we entered percentages between 0 and 100 percent in 10 percent increments. Actual 2017 rooms and meals spending during the months of August and September were then subtracted from the estimates of expenditures produced by our model under each scenario to yield the estimated effect of post-Labor Day school starts on spending. These estimates were then adjusted for the percentage of summer tourism expenditures that come from NH residents (20 percent of all expenditures from visitors from the Northeast) based on surveys of summer vacationers9 to arrive at the final impact of post-Labor Day school starts on expenditures. Model results using this procedure produced a point estimate of a $10.4 million impact on meals and rooms expenditures for 2017 when 100 percent of students start after Labor Day, a year in which about 18 percent of students actually started school after Labor Day. Rooms and meals spending represents only a portion of overall recreation and tourismrelated expenditures. Additional expenditures must be added to our estimates of rooms and meals expenditures to capture the total impact of post-Labor Day starts on tourism spending in NH. To do that we examined data from 2017 survey of summer visitors to NH, conducted for the Travel and Tourism Division of the State of NH.10 Table 3 shows that accommodations and food services (spending subject to rooms and meals taxation) account for about one-third of the aggregate spending of summer visitors to NH. We added only the expenditures that are identified as included in Table 3 to our estimates of rooms and meals expenditures to arrive at a final estimated impact on tourism spending. Expenditures on air transportation, on food stores, and all but a small percentage of retail spending by vacationers (representing just 3.5% of

Table 3 Percent of Aggregate Summer Tourism Spending by Category From 2017 Included in Summer Visitor Impact Surveys Estimates Spending Category Yes (3.5%) Retail Sales 40.2% Accommodations 16.6% Yes Yes Food Service 16.3% Yes Local Tran. & Gas 11.8% Entertainment/Recreation 8.7% Yes No Food Stores 4.7% No Visitor Air Transp.

1.7% Totals 100% http://www.deanrunyan.com/NHTravelImpacts/NHTravelImpacts.html

9

Expenditures of NH residents as a percent of all expenditures of all residents from the Northeast is used because a majority of expenditures come from residents of New England and school start dates among these states are highly correlated. Our percentage of students starting school after Labor Day thus likely captures larger regional trends in school start dates.

10 Available at: http://www.deanrunyan.com/NHTravelImpacts/NHTravelImpacts.html

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expenditures by NH vacationers rather than the 40% for all visitors) are excluded under the assumption that most of those sales to NH residents were either unnecessary (air travel) or are items that NH residents would have purchased in the state even if the spending had not occurred during recreation or tourism-related activities (most retail expenditures and all food store spending). The result of this methodology is that rooms and meals expenditures account for 60 percent of the tourism spending of NH vacationers when they vacation in NH (as opposed to 32.9% of the tourism related expenditures of all visitors). Dividing estimates of additional 2017 rooms and meals expenditures resulting from starting school after Labor Day start by .60 results in a point estimate of $17.3 million in additional recreation and tourism-related spending by NH families.

Table 4 presents a breakdown of the additional tourism-related expenditures that would have occurred in 2017 if all public schools in the state had started school after Labor Day. Data collected for the NH Division of Travel and Tourism Development suggests that our estimate of an additional $10.4 million in rooms and meals spending in response to a post-Labor Day school start in NH would be accompanied by an additional $21.2 million in spending by vacationers in other categories.

Our more conservative estimate assumes only

Table 4 Estimated Additional Spending by Category in 2017 (Sept. 4th Labor Day) Included in Post Labor Day School Start Spending Category Impact Estimates Retail Sales $444,819 Accommodations $5,253,822 Food Service $5,146,278 Local Tran. & Gas $3,741,885 Entertainment/Recreation $2,742,362 Food Stores $0 Visitor Air Transp.

Totals

$0 $17,329,167

an additional $7 million dollars in spending.

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Our estimate is that $17.3 million of additional tourism-related spending during August and September of 2017 by NH residents would have occurred if all public school students had started school after Labor Day that year. That estimate is based on Labor Day falling on the 4th day of the month, as was the case in 2017, and 100 percent of NH’s public school students started after Labor Day. Figure 5 shows estimated additional expenditures in 2017 if a lower or higher percentage of students had started school after Labor Day than the approximately 18 percent that actually did in 2017.

Finally, the estimated impacts presented here are retrospective, comparing what tourism expenditures would have been in 2017 if all schools in NH had started after Labor Day to actual 2017 spending under the same economic, demographic and other conditions that existed in 2017.

The date on which Labor Day falls, NH’s unemployment rate, its population and school enrollments will all vary each year and the impacts of starting school after Labor Day can be expected to differ going forward from the estimates presented here. In addition, price increases will mean that nominal (not inflation adjusted) expenditures will rise even if no other factors influencing tourism spending change from their values in 2017. Still, we believe our estimates provide policymakers with a solid perspective on the likely magnitude of impacts on tourism spending if more NH students start the school year after Labor Day.

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All possible combinations of the potential range of model variables used to produce our estimates of tourism expenditures cannot be modeled and their results presented here. But modeling the impact of the date on which Labor

Table 5 Estimated Impact of a Post-Labor Day School Start Date in 2017 by Date of Labor Day Rooms & Total Meals Tourism Labor Day Expenditures Expenditures 1-Sep

$8,597,651

$14,329,418

Day falls requires only seven iterations. Again,

2-Sep

$9,198,467

$15,330,779

using data from 2017, Table 5 presents estimates

3-Sep

$9,799,284

$16,332,140

4-Sep

$10,400,100

$17,333,500

5-Sep

$11,000,917

$18,334,861

occurred in 2017 if Labor Day had fallen on any

6-Sep

$11,601,733

$19,336,222

date (other than September 4th) during the first

7-Sep

$12,202,549

$20,337,582

of the range of spending impacts that would have

week in September. The table can be used to estimate the impacts of having all public school students start school after Labor Day in future years by adjusting for the difference in consumer prices between 2017 and the year of interest.

B. Survey and Census-Based Projections A second method of estimating the recreation and tourism-related spending impacts of starting school after Labor Day roughly follows procedures that have been used in other states.

Broadly, this methodology uses the following procedures: 1. Obtain U.S. Census data and NH data on school enrollments to determine the number of families with children in public schools in New Hampshire.

2. Use survey-based estimates, provided by the University of NH Survey Center, of the percentage of New Hampshire families with children in public schools who indicate they would take an additional vacation or extend a vacation if the school year started after Labor Day (27.2%) and the percentage that would do so in NH (20.9%) to estimate the number of additional or extended vacations resulting a post-Labor Day start.

3. Apply information on the spending patterns, average spending per person and per trip, and other data collected for the NH Division of Travel and Tourism Development, to the estimated number of additional trips taken by NH families with children to estimate additional expenditures in response to a post-Labor Day school start date.

Using the method outlined above produces an estimated increase in recreation and tourism-related spending in New Hampshire of $17,710,851 in 2017 if all public school students

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had started school after Labor Day. The estimate includes $15.4 million in spending on overnight travel as well as $2.3 million in spending on day trips. Similar to our model-based estimates, some expenditures associated with travel and tourism spending by vacationers in New Hampshire were excluded from the estimate.

In this methodology, the number of NH families with children in public schools is derived from a combination of Census data on the number of families in NH with children under age 18 and the number of students enrolled in public schools. The number of additional vacations taken in NH if schools started after Labor Day is taken from responses to a UNH Survey Center that asked families if they would be more likely to take a vacation during the Labor Day holiday if schools started after Labor Day, and if they would vacation in NH or outside the state.

Average spending per trip is obtained from data collected for the NH Division of Travel and Tourism Development. We use per trip spending by NH families that is estimated at just 56.9 percent of the average per trip spending overall by visitors to New Hampshire (spending included in estimating per trip spending by NH residents is listed in Table 3 of this report).

Finally, in addition to overnight vacations, many families will make day trips for tourism and recreation-related day trips during the Labor Day holiday period if all schools started school after Labor Day. Day trip spending here is estimated at 15 percent of total overnight vacation spending.

Table 6 presents the derivation of our $17.7 million estimate using the methodology outlined

Table 6 Survey and Census-Based Estimate of Additional Spending From a Post-Labor Day School Start Date NH Households Family Households Households With Children in Public Schools

521,373 346,476 127,048

% Who Would Extend or Take Additional Vacation in NH Additional Trips

20.9% 26,553

Avg. Spending/Trip Adjusted Spending/Trip

$1,020 $580

Total Overnight Travel Spending

$15,400,740

Day Trip Spending (as a % of Overnight Spending) Total Day Trip Spending

15.0% $2,310,111

Total Spending

$17,710,851

here. This procedure does not allow for the same opportunities as our model-based method to test the sensitivity of estimates to factors such as the date on which Labor Day falls, the percentage of students starting school before and after Labor Day, or economic conditions in the state.

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Discussion The two methods used to estimate spending impacts of all NH public schools starting after Labor Day yield similar $17 million results. The convergence of the estimates increases our confidence in these findings. Of the two methods, the model-based econometric approach provides the most information about how actual spending may vary from the estimates presented here and the economic and demographic factors that could contribute to variation in total tourism spending resulting from a post-Labor Day school start date. Actual expenditure impacts will be different from the estimates presented in this report but the report provides policymakers and other interested parties with a solid understanding of the relative magnitude of economic impacts from adopting a policy of having all public schools start after Labor Day. V. Total, Including Multiplier, Economic Impacts The full economic impact of additional spending associated with having all public schools start after Labor Day and extending the summer vacation season for families with public school children, includes not only direct recreation and tourism spending but also secondary impacts that occur as a result of the direct, recreation and tourism-related spending. These “indirect” and “induced” or multiplier economic impacts significantly increase the total economic impacts resulting from spending that occurs in response to starting schools after Labor Day. This report section presents estimates of the additional “multiplier” impacts that would have occurred in 2017 as a result of the recreation and tourism-related spending by NH families if all NH schools started after Labor Day Methodology Our econometric model-based estimate of additional tourism spending is the basis for determining total economic impacts because it is based on statistically significant relationships between NH economic, demographic, enrollment and school start data over a 20 year period.

Because it is similar to the estimates based on survey and Census-based data (although marginally smaller) there is not a need to calculate total economic impacts for both estimates.

The $17.3 million in estimated additional, direct, tourism-related expenditures, by spending category, as presented in Table 4 was entered into the IMPLAN model of the New Hampshire economy. 11 The resulting total economic impacts, including multiplier impacts, are

11

IMPLAN is an input-output model that is widely used by government and private sector organizations across the country for economic impact and public policy analysis. The IMPLAN model used was populated with NH data to

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presented in Table 7. The $17.33 in spending estimated using PolEcon

Table 7 Total Economic Impacts of Additional Spending in Response to a Post-Labor Day School Start

models is shown as the “direct” impact on “output” (sales) in the table. That $17.3 million in sales would support an additional 171

Impact Type Direct Effect Indirect Effect Induced Effect Total Effect

Employment 171 30 38 239

Labor Income $5,414,587 $1,999,002 $2,274,407 $9,687,995

Output $17,341,887 $5,564,632 $6,208,143 $29,114,662

jobs in the state and $5.4 million in labor income (wage and salary plus proprietor income).

The table also shows “indirect” output of $5.6 million, supporting an additional 30 jobs and $1.99 in labor income. Indirect impacts reflect the impacts from the purchase of goods and service made by businesses, governments, and not-for-profit organizations among one-another with the revenue they receive from direct expenditures. Table 7 also shows “induced” impacts of $6.2 million in industry output or sales that support and additional 38 jobs in NH and that provide $2.3 million in labor income. Induced impacts result from the spending by individuals with the income they receive from the businesses and other organizations in response to the increase in direct and indirect output in the state. The total estimated economic impact if all students had started school after Labor Day in 2017 is $29.1 of industry output or sales, supporting an additional 239 jobs and $9.7 million in labor income in the state.

The findings in this report indicate that when Labor Day falls later in September the impact of starting school after Labor Day is larger. Using the IMPLAN model of the NH economy, the total economic impacts in 2017 of starting school after Labor Day when Labor Day falls on each of the first seven days in September range from $24.1 to $34.1 million in industry output or sales, 199 to 281 additional jobs, and $8 to $10.8 million in labor (Table 8).

Table 8 2017 Economic Impacts of Starting School After Labor Day

by Date of Labor Day Labor Date Employment Income Output 1-Sep 199 $8,041,071 $24,145,858 2-Sep 212 $8,590,045 $25,802,125 3-Sep 225 $9,126,633 $27,428,658 4-Sep 239 $9,687,995 $29,114,662 5-Sep 253 $10,245,783 $30,792,086 6-Sep 267 $10,805,357 $32,473,798 7-Sep 281 $11,364,931 $34,155,510

replicate the structure of the NH and each of its county’s economy. Information on the IMPLAN model and model data is available at www.IMPLAN.com.

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A. Regional Impacts To estimate the regional economic impacts of starting the school year after Labor Day we examined data on the volume of total tourism-related spending by county during the 2017 summer tourism season, as published by the NH Division of Travel and Tourism Development.12 We allocated our estimated 2017 increase in tourism-related spending impacts to each county in New Hampshire according to the percentage of NH’s summer tourism spending that occurred the county in 2017. Regional economic impact results are presented in Figure 6 which shows estimated additional spending in each county for two scenarios that correspond to Labor Day falling on September 1st (the low scenario) and September 7th (the high estimate scenario).

Results show that Rockingham and Hillsborough County combined would benefit from about 54 percent of the increase in tourism-related spending, while Grafton and Carroll Counties would benefit from about 25 percent of the expenditures.

VI. State and Local Government Revenue Impacts The additional direct, tourism-related spending along with the resulting indirect and induced multiplier impacts of having all NH schools start school after Labor Day will generate additional economic activity that also produces state and local revenues. Again using 2017 as our base year, our estimate is that starting school after Labor Day would have resulted in an

12

Available at: http://www.deanrunyan.com/NHTravelImpacts/NHTravelImpacts.html

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additional $2 million in state and local revenue in 2017, with a range of $1.7 to $2.8 million depending on the date of Labor Day in September.

To estimate the state and local revenue impacts we began by calculating the rooms and meals tax revenue based on our model-based estimates of additional spending subject to rooms and meals taxation. This revenue represents the largest portion of the revenue that would be generated from additional spending on recreation and tourism related activities.

Studies conducted for the NH Division of Travel and Tourism Development have identified the revenue impacts associated with travel and tourism expenditures in the state.13 Using ratios from these “NH Tourism Satellite Account� reports, estimates of state and local government revenue are presented in Table 9. These estimates are for the amount of revenue that would have been generated in 2017 if all schools had started after Labor Day. Labor Day fell on September 4th in 2017, because the date on which Labor falls exerts a significant impact on spending and overall economic impacts, the table also presents estimates for Labor Days falling on September 1st and September 7th.

Table 9 Estimated 2017 State and Local Revenue Impacts From all Increased Economic Activity (Direct Tourism Spending, Indirect and Induced Spending) if All Schools Started After Labor Day, by Date of Labor Day Revenue Source Meals & Rooms Real Estate Transfer State Liquor Stores Business Taxes Other Fees/Permits Etc. Gasoline Tax Road Tolls Communications Services Tax

13

Labor Day Sept. 1 $773,788.59

Labor Day Sept. 4 $936,009.00

Labor Day Sept. 7 $1,289,648

$104,818.88

$126,793.56

$174,698.13

$265,505.60 $192,155.81

$321,167.35 $232,440.19

$442,509.32 $320,259.68

$203,003.38 $65,085.06 $46,489.31

$245,561.89 $78,729.78 $56,235.53

$338,338.95 $108,475.10 $77,482.18

$18,595.76 $1,669,442.38

$22,494.25 $2,019,432

$30,992.93 $2,782,404

Goss, L, Lee, D. NH Tourism Satellite Account, INHS, Plymouth State University, various years.

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VII. Impact on Youth Labor Force In addition to economic impacts from additional recreation and tourism-related spending, the trend toward earlier and before Labor Day school starts has implications for the ability of teenagers to hold jobs throughout the summer months, and by extension, the ability of businesses that rely on teenage workers during the summer to staff their businesses.

The impact of earlier school start dates is especially important in the context of longerterm demographic and labor force participation trends among teenagers in New Hampshire.

Figure 7 illustrate two key trends in NH’s youth labor force. The chart shows that labor force participation among 16-18 year olds in New Hampshire has generally been on a downward trend, falling from over 60 percent to just over 40 percent since 2000. Second, the size of the teenage labor force has been declining as a result of lower labor force participation rate among teenagers and because of a decline in the number of New Hampshire residents ages 16-18. The NH labor force is growing more slowly overall, as it is throughout the country, and slow growth is projected to continue for decades. Earlier school start dates exacerbate the difficulties industries have in maintaining adequate staffing levels as teenagers return to school. The economic impacts associated with labor shortages during the Labor Day holiday are significant but beyond this report to document.

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Key Tourism and Retail Industries are Most Affected Key tourism-related industries are among the most affected by the decline in New Hampshire’s teenage labor force. These industries are especially affected by earlier school start dates that shrink the size of the teenage workforce in August of each year and prior to an important holiday when recreation and tourism spending spikes. Figure 8 shows the industries in NH with the highest percentage of teenagers (ages 16-18) in their workforce during the summer months. Amusement and arcade businesses employ the highest percentage of young workers, along with key retail and food service industries.

NH’s Teenage Labor Force Shrinks by About 4,000 Between August and September Our analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics “Current Population Survey” (the monthly survey used to estimate and report the labor force, and unemployment rate for the nation, states, counties, and communities) indicates that over the past three years (2015-17) the number of individuals age 16-18 in NH’s labor force declined by an average of 3,978 between August and September.14 From 2000 to 2002 the average decline was 3,504, but at a time period when there were more teenagers in the NH labor force in August (7,000 to 10,000 more than in the 2015-17 time period) and when more students started school

14

PolEcon analysis of monthly data from the U.S. Census/U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics “Current Population Survey”

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after Labor Day. Thus, the percentage of the teenage workforce leaving the workforce in late summer has increased since 2000 (from 11% to 19%) and coincides with the increase in the percentage of students starting school before Labor Day. Not all of the reduction in teenage labor is attributable to earlier school start dates. Some is the result of teenagers attending post-secondary schools and some may be the result of seasonal businesses closing. But few seasonal businesses close before Labor Day, and while as many as one-third of the decline in teenage labor could theoretically be attributable to postsecondary attendance, not all 18 year olds go on to post-secondary schools, and even when they do, many remain in the labor force. The labor force participation rate in NH of 19-21year olds is approximately 25 percentage points higher for 19-21 year-olds than it is for 16-18 year olds. This suggests that the largest portion of the decline in August to September teenage labor force participation is attributable to teenagers returning to high school. Without more definitive information on why 16-18 year olds leave the NH labor force in September we assume that three-quarters of the decline in September labor force participation by 16-18 year olds is attributable to students returning to high school and thus affected by school start dates.

Our estimate is that over the past three years an average of 2,984 teenage workers left the labor force before the end of August specifically because of a return to high school. Teenagers who leave the labor force during the summer to return to high school lose a portion of income they could have earned during summer months, and in particular during the Labor Day holiday season when there is high demand in the recreation, tourism, and retail industries that employ a high percentage of teenagers.

Earnings data from the Census Burau’s “Current Population Survey” for the month of August 2017 indicates that the average weekly wage for workers ages 16-18 in New Hampshire was $217.50. Assuming teenage workers returning to high school loose, on average, two weeks of work, the aggregate total income lost due to earlier school start dates is approximately $1.3 million ($1,297,931). Starting school after Labor Day and requiring more school days in June to compensate would not likely have the same negative impact on the earnings of teenage workers.

Many of the industries that employ the most teenagers do not “staff up” or hire teenage workers until late in June as the summer vacation season begins in earnest. Results presented in the next section of this report show that if additional days of schooling in June are required to compensate for starting school before Labor Day, the impact on a majority of students will be an additional 3 days or less in June.

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Along with the lost earnings of teenage workers it is likely that some, especially seasonal, businesses experience a reduction in revenue because of curtailed hours and operations as a result of shortages of teenage workers in September. A dollar magnitude of those impacts is not estimated in this report.

VIII. Impact on School Calendars The issue of local control over school district calendars is prominent in many of the debates across the country over proposals to mandate post-Labor Day school start dates. While the issue is often debated with subjective arguments and based on value judgements or along ideological lines, this report seeks to introduce objective data to inform policymakers over the school calendar implications in New Hampshire of all schools starting after Labor Day. To better understand the implications of post-Labor Day school starts for students, families, and school districts, this analysis documents the number of school days that would have to be added by all school districts in the month of June to meet state-mandated instructional time requirements. Our analysis uses student enrollment data for each district to calculate the number of days that would have to be added and the number and percentage of all NH public school students that would be affected. This information can help policymakers understand the magnitude of calendar adjustments, and how many families would be affected, if all schools started after Labor Day. In addition, the analysis considers one alternative to adding days in June to the school calendar to meet instructional time mandates. Specifically, we assess the implications of adding additional time to each school day to meet instructional time mandates. Again, we use actual school calendar and enrollment data to demonstrate the number of minutes that would have to be added to the school day to meet instructional requirements and we calculate the number and percentage of all NH public school students that would be affected when Labor Day falls on the 1st, 4th, and 7th of September to provide a range of impacts.

Labor Day 2017 fell on September 4th, exactly in the middle of possible dates on which it could fall (September 1-7). Analyzing the implications for the number of additional school days required in June if schools started before Labor Day when Labor Day falls on September 4th thus represents a midpoint in assessing the school calendar implications of mandating a post-Labor Day school start. When Labor Day falls earlier than September 4th potentially fewer days will need to be added in June to compensate, and when Labor Day falls on September 5th through September 7th more days would be required.

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For the 2017-2018 school year, Figure 9 shows the number of school districts in New Hampshire that started school before and after Labor Day, along with the dates in August or September on which they started and how many days in June each start date would have to add in June to compensate for a post-Labor Day start.15

The chart does not show how many students would have been affected according to the additional number of school days in June that would be required to meet instructional time

15

The analysis assumes all school districts did not have school on the Friday before Labor Day.

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mandates. That is shown in Figure 10 which indicates that 82 percent of students in NH public schools during the 2017-18 school year would have had to add three school days or less to schooling in June in order to start school after Labor Day, and 96 percent with four or fewer days.

For additional perspective, Figure 11 shows the number of students that would have been affected, by number of additional school days in June, if all NH students had started school after Labor Day in the 2014-15 school year when Labor Day fell on September 1st. Figure 12 shows the percentage of students that would have been affected, by additional school days in June, when Labor Day fell on September 7th as it did in the 2015-16 school year.

The two charts present the range of school calendar affects that could occur depending on which day Labor Day falls. As Figure 11 shows, Labor Days that fall early in September require fewer additional school days in June. Over 89 percent of students would have had to add 3 or fewer school days in June to accommodate starting school after Labor Day when Labor Day falls on September 1st.

Figure 12 shows that if all schools had started after Labor Day in 2015-16 then two-thirds (66%) of students would have had to attend school for an additional four days or fewer in June to meet instructional time mandates, but over 20 percent would have had to add seven days or more. This analysis shows that unless Labor Day falls late in the first week of September (6th or 7th) the number and percentage of students that would have to attend school later in June by more than three additional days is relatively small.

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A. Impact of Longer School Days One alternative to adding school days in June to compensate for starting after Labor Day that has been offered in debates in other states is adding additional time to each school day. That is, achieving an equal amount of instructional time when all schools start after Labor Day, and without adding school days in June, could be accomplished by adding an amount of time to each instructional day.

This analysis uses the same procedure as was used in our analysis of the number of additional school days needed in June to meet instructional time requirements while starting school after Labor Day. The number of additional school days in June from that analysis is converted to additional time (in minutes) using the following assumptions: a seven-hour (420 minutes) school day and 180-day school year. Although most school districts (133 of 186) had 180-day instructional days during the 2017-18 school year, some had fewer and some had more.

In cases where the number of days is fewer, then the number of minutes to be added to each day would be marginally higher (by just seconds per day) because there are fewer days to recover the pre-Labor Day school days. For districts with more than 180 instructional days the number of minutes that need to be added to each instructional day is marginally smaller (by seconds per day) than presented here.

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Figure 13 shows that to accommodate starting school after Labor Day in the 2017-18 school year, over 80 percent of students would have had to add seven (7.1) minutes or less to their school day. 16

The range of time that would have to be added to each school day (rather than adding days in June) according to the number of days that have to be added is presented in Tables 10 and 11. Table 10 shows the impacts that would have occurred in the 2014-15 school year when Labor Day fell on September 1st. It shows that 89 percent of students would have had to add 7.1 minutes or less (23% zero minutes) to accommodate starting school after Labor Day without adding additional school days in June.

Table 10 Impact on Length of School Day to Accommodate Post-Labor Day School Starts 2014-15 School Year (September 1st Labor Day) Start Date Minutes/Day # of Students % of Students Cumulative % Post-Labor Day (0 Days) 0.0 43,071 23.5% 23.5% Aug. 28 (1 Day) 2.3 14,637 8.0% 31.5% Aug. 27 (2 Days) 4.7 54,922 30.0% 61.5% Aug. 26 (3 Days) 7.1 50,666 27.7% 89.2% Aug. 25 (4 Days) 9.5 18,316 10.0% 99.2% Aug. 21 (6 Days) 14.5 776 0.4% 99.6% Aug. 19 (8 Days) 19.5 707 0.4% 100.0%

16

Over 80 percent of students would require the equivalent of three additional school days or less. At 7 hours per day = 420 minutes x 3 days = 1,260 minutes / 177 (180 – 3) instructional days = 7.11 minutes per day.

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Table 11 presents the other end of the spectrum of time impacts, the 2015-16 school year when Labor Day fell on September 7th. Table 12 shows a greater variability in school start dates in the 2015-16 school year and that 48 percent of students would have to have added seven minutes or fewer in order to start school after Labor Day without adding school days in June. It also shows that 23 percent of students would have to have added 17 minutes or more to accommodate a post-Labor Day school start.

Table 11 Impact on Length of School Day to Accommodate Post-Labor Day School Starts 2015-16 School Year (September 7th Labor Day) Start Date Minutes/Day # of Students % of Students Cumulative % Post Labor Day 0.0 9,139 5.1% 5.1% Sept. 3 (1 Days) 2.3 3,343 1.8% 6.9% Sept. 2 (2 Days) 4.7 41,512 22.9% 29.8% Sept. 1 (3 Days) 7.1 32,077 17.7% 47.6% Aug. 31 (4 Days) 9.5 33,425 18.5% 66.0% Aug. 27 (6 Days) 14.5 20,784 11.5% 77.5% Aug. 26 (7 Days) 17.0 34,225 18.9% 96.5% Aug. 25 (8 Days) 19.5 4,736 2.6% 99.1% Aug. 24, (9 Days) 22.1 983 0.5% 99.6% Aug. 20, (11 Days) 27.3 701 0.4% 100.0%

Discussion The analysis in this section provides context for a better understanding of how students and their families would be affected by proposals to have the school year start after Labor Day. Each year some percentage of students in NH begin the school year after Labor Day, but the vast majority of public school students in New Hampshire, typically 80 percent or more, begin the school year after Labor Day. Our examination of the data suggests that under either a scenario where starting school after Labor Day results in additional days being added to the school calendar in June, or additional minutes being added to the school day, the magnitude of the adjustments appear smaller than commonly believed. Moreover, while this report does not consider any potential impacts on learning and instruction that are sometimes featured in school calendar debates around the country, nor are we qualified to do so, the results of our analysis do suggest that the magnitude of adjustments that would be required in New Hampshire to start school after Labor Day do not appear large enough to impact learning outcomes.

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B. Weather Related Implications Examining debates around the country over school start dates reveals that the impact of post-Labor Day starts on school building heating and cooling costs are often featured. The issue appears to be of greatest concern in states with warmer climates than New Hampshire’s but it is an issue that is briefly considered here. No data is available on the percentage of NH schools that are air conditioned but anecdotal evidence suggests that it is a low percentage. Thus, cooling costs related to keeping classrooms comfortable for students and staff during warm days have little impact on school district costs or the difference in the costs between school days in June, August, and September. Still, to the extent that student and staff comfort are of interest in the debate over school start dates it is worth examining differences in ambient temperatures (and thus classroom comfort) between school days during the months of June, August and September.

We were unable to locate data on mean high temperatures in New Hampshire or its communities for each day of the year but the mean daily high temperature for each month is available. Table 12 shows the mean daily high temperature during the months of June, August and September for a number of NH communities spread geographically around the state. As the table indicates, mean high temperatures are significantly lower during the month of September than they are during August, and temperatures in June are lower than during August in every location. The implications of this data are that starting school in September rather than August would require lower cooling costs or result in more comfortable classrooms, and that adding school days later in June would not nullify those advantages.

Table 12 Mean Daily High Temperatures by Month Difference: Difference: September vs June vs City August September June August August Berlin 77 69 74 -8 -3 Concord 81 73 77 -8 -4 Durham 81 73 78 -8 -3 Hanover 80 71 78 -9 -2 Keene 81 73 78 -8 -3 Laconia 80 72 76 -8 -4 Manchester 80 73 77 -7 -3 Nashua 81 73 77 -8 -4 North Conway 78 70 75 -8 -3 Plymouth 78 70 76 -8 -2 Rochester 79 72 76 -7 -3 Source: U.S. Climate Data online accessed at: https://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/newhampshire/united-states/3199

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IX. Conclusions Results of this study document a trend toward more public schools and public school students beginning the school year before Labor Day and that the trend has had a negative impact on tourism-related spending in New Hampshire during the months of August and September. Depending on the day in September that Labor Day falls, having all New Hampshire public schools start after Labor Day would result in an additional $24 to $34 million in economic activity in New Hampshire in 2017 dollars, supporting an additional 199 to 281 jobs in the state while generating between $1.7 and $2.8 million in additional state and local revenue.

Starting schools after Labor Day would also help ease labor shortages in industries that rely on teenage employment during late August and early September when, on average, about 4,000 teenage workers leave NH’s labor force each year. Starting schools after Labor Day would result in almost 3,000 teenagers remaining in the labor force during the Labor Day Holiday and an additional $1.3 million in wages for workers ages 16-18 in New Hampshire.

Our analysis of the school calendar implications of starting all public schools after Labor Day suggests that the number of days that would have to be added to the school year in June in order to accommodate a post-Labor Day school start would have only a modest impact on a majority of families in New Hampshire and the same is true if additional time is added to each school day to compensate instructional time for a post-Labor Day school start.

The analyses in this report provide a solid base of information that can inform future debates over the merits and implications of all schools in NH beginning the school year after Labor Day. The findings of this report indicate that there are substantial economic, fiscal, and labor market benefits of NH schools starting after Labor Day and that to be realized those benefits would require relatively modest changes to school calendars or days.

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