საქართველო - რუსეთი: უარყოფითიდან დადებით გაურკვევლობამდე

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÓÔÒÀÔÄÂÉÉÓÀ ÃÀ ÓÀÄÒÈÀÛÏÒÉÓÏ ÖÒÈÉÄÒÈÏÁÀÈÀ ÊÅËÄÅÉÓ ×ÏÍÃÉ

GEORGIAN FOUNDATION FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

eqspertis azri

aleqsandre rondeli

saqarTvelo - ruseTi: uaryofiTidan dadebiT gaurkvevlobamde

3 2013

publikacia daibeWda amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis saelCos finansuri mxardaWeriT.

mTargmneli:

rusudan margiSvili

teqnikuri redaqtori:

artem meliq-nubarovi

saavtoro uflebebi daculia da ekuTvnis saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis fonds. werilobiTi nebarTvis gareSe wignis arc erTi nawili ar SeiZleba gadaibeWdos nebismieri, maT Soris, eleqtronuli an meqanikuri formiT. Š saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa kvlevis fondi 2013 weli

ISSN 1512-4835 ISBN 978-9941-0-5484-6

Sesavali postsabWoTa sivrceSi Znelad Tu moiZebneba saxelmwifo, romelic ise ewinaaRmdegeba rusul hegemonias, rogorc samxreT kavkasiis gulSi mdebare patara saqarTvelo.

ruseTi 1991 wlidan moyolebuli saqarTveloze zegavlenis yvelanair berkets iyenebda, raTa es qveyana Tavis morCil xelqveiTad eqcia, magram yovelgvari mcdeloba mxolod arTulebda mis Canafiqrs, ramac sabolood saqarTvelos oci procentis okupaciamde migviyvana. dRes, TbilisSi axali politikuri Zalis mosvlasTan dakavSirebiT, moskovs kidev erTxel uCndeba imedi, rom amjerad mainc SeZlebs ufro efeqturad daimorCilos saqarTvelo, zurgi aqcevinos dasavleTisaTvis da aRadgeninos Crdiloel mezobelTan `Zmoba~. es axlac ar iqneba advili, magram moskovi, rogorc Cans, gamoiyenebs Tavis mTel diplomatiur codnasa da SesaZleblobas, raTa daaSantaJos Tbilisi da miaRwios Tavis strategiul mizans.

qarTul-rusuli winaaRmdegobebi

patara saxelmwifos erovnuli usafrTxoebisTvis yvelaze mniSvnelovani gare gamowveva Cveulebriv aris Zlevamosili mezoblebi. mdgomareoba mZimdeba, rodesac es didi mezobeli yofili dampyrobelia. aseTi viTareba aqvs saqarTvelos. marTalia, saqarTvelos suverenitets sxvadasxva saxis geopolitikuri da geoekonomikuri upiratesobebi Tu SezRudvebi aqvs, magram 2008 wlis omma ruseTTan cxadyo, rom saqarTvelos, rogorc suverenuli, stabiluri da demokratiuli saxelmwifos ganviTarebas yvelaze seriozul gare problemas swored rusuli neoimperializmi uqmnis. qarTul-rusuli urTierTobebi garTulda da konfliqturi gaxda mas Semdeg, rac saqarTvelom damoukidebloba moipova. ruseTi Seecada saqarTveloSi samxedro saxiT darCeniliyo da qveyana Tavis samxedro-politikur orbitaze 3

SeenarCunebina. kavkasiaSi sakuTari arsebobis TvalsazrisiT moskovs yovelTvis mniSvnelovan qveynad miaCnda saqarTvelo. damoukideblobis dasawyisi saqarTvelosTvis, rogorc axladwarmoqmnili saxelmwifosTvis, gansakuTrebiT mZime aRmoCnda, moxvda ra moskovis wnexis qveS, romelic cdilobda nebismier fasad `SeenarCunebina~ qveyana, iqneboda es politikuri zewola, ekonomikuri SantaJi Tu saqarTvelos kuTxeebSi _ afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi _ separatizmis mxardaWera.1

moskovisaTvis saqarTvelo regionis sakvanZo qveyanaa. ruseTs sjera, rom saqarTvelos gakontrolebis gareSe misTvis SeuZlebeli iqneba daibrunos Zalaufleba samxreT kavkasiaSi da daimkvidros Tavisi, rogorc am regionis mTavari Zalis roli. saqarTveloze kontroli saSualebas miscems ruseTs ufro TavdajerebiT akontrolos arastabiluri CrdiloeT kavkasia da Seanelos TurqeTis mzardi gavlena yofili sabWoTa kavSiris Turqulenovan respublikebsa da xalxebze. saqarTvelos, rogorc ruseTis satelits, SeeZleba Sav zRvaze gasasvlelis CaketviT dasavleTs Camoacilos navTobiT mdidari azerbaijani da centraluri aziis is saxelmwifoebi, romlebic zRvas ar emijnebian. ruseTs eqneboda didi samxedro warmomadgenloba regionSi da gauadvildeboda wvdoma Tavis mokavSiresTan samxreT kavkasiaSi _ azerbaijanisa da TurqeTis mimarT mtrulad ganwyobil somxeTTan. saqarTvelos gakontrolebiT kremli aseve ufro martivad SeZlebda SeezRuda evropuli da evroatlantikuri struqturebis Semosvla kavkasiaSi. 2008 wels saqarTveloSi SeWriT moskovs undoda eCvenebina mezoblebisa da mTeli msofliosTvis, rom e.w. `axlo sazRvargareTSi~ (postsabWoTa sivrceSi) muSaobs mxolod rusuli wesebi da sxva araferi. rogorc stiven jonsi ambobs, `‌ruseTisaTvis omis dawyebis mizezTa mizezi ar yofila saqarTvelo. es ufro ukavSirdeboda did saerTaSoriso sakiTxebs, rogoricaa natos aRmosavleTisken gafarToeba, kosovos aRiareba, ruseTis usafrTxoeba CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi da dasavleTisgan wamosuli gamowveva evraziaSi gazisa da navTobis maragebze ruseTis kontrolTan dakavSirebiT~.2 es yovelive warmoadgens mizezebs, ratomac sjera kremls, 4

rom saqarTvelo unda darCes ruseTis samxedro-politikur orbitaze da im Zlier faqtors, rac xsnis kidec moskovis Zalisxmevas moaqcios saqarTvelo mudmivi zewolis qveS. saqarTveloze kontrolis SenarCunebiT ruseTi aRdgeba, rogorc mTeli regionis ukonkurento hegemoni da gaZlierdeba moskovis ambiciebi da Zalisxmeva dominirebdes postsabWoTa sivrceSi.

unda aRiniSnos, rom sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg ruseTi darCa erTaderT mezobel qveyanad, romelTanac saqarTvelos jerac ar daudia e.w. CarCoxelSekruleba. arc saqarTvelom da arc ruseTma xeli ar moawera amas, radganac ruseTi iTxovda xelSekrulebis teqstSi SeetanaT ori muxli: erTi _ ruseTis gansakuTrebuli uflebebis Sesaxeb suverenuli saqarTvelos konfliqtur regionebSi da meore _ xelmomweri mxareebis valdebulebis Sesaxeb, rom ar daeSvaT nebismieri mesame mxaris samxedro Zalisa da samxedro infrastruqturis ganTavseba xelmomweri mxareebis teritoriebze. amrigad, aSkara iyo, rom miuxedavad ruseTis mravaljer gancxadebisa, rom pativs scems saqarTvelos teritoriul mTlianobas, sinamdvileSi ruseTs arasodes gamouvlenia saqarTvelos suverenitetis mimarT pativiscema da ar yofila dainteresebuli, rom yofiliyo megobrulad ganwyobili mezobeli da samarTliani Suamavali.

2008 wlis agvistoSi ruseTis SemoWram saqarTveloSi gviCvena, rom postsabWoTa sivrceSi realpolitika rCeba politikis instrumentad. 2008 wlis agvistos omis analizisas entoni kordesmani aRniSnavs, rom `‌ SedarebiT ufro Zlieri saxelmwifoebi adgenen an arRveven wesebs, rodesac grZnoben, rom amis gakeTeba maTs interesSia da rodesac ar arsebobs sapirispiro, angariSgasawevi, sarwmuno Zala~.3

marTalia, qarTul-rusul urTierTobebSi iyo garkveuli periodebi, rodesac es urTierTobebi SedarebiT mogvarebisaken midioda (erTi aseTi periodi iyo prezident saakaSvilis xelisuflebaSi mosvlisTanave), am or qveyanas Soris arsebuli urTierTundobloba arasodes gamqrala da urTierTobebic yovelTvis daZabuli iyo. ruseTis antiqarTuli 5

intensiuri propaganda kargad aisaxa kidec ruseTis mosaxleobis didi nawilis saqarTvelos mimarT damokidebulebaSic _ maT saqarTvelo yvelaze mtrul da saSiS (!) qveynad miiCnies. saqarTvelos xelisufalni ki, Tavis mxriv, adanaSaulebdnen ruseTs neoimperializmSi, saqarTveloSi separatizmis mxardaWeraSi, ekonomikur SantaJSi da a.S.

rusma eqspertma sergei markedonovma marTebulad SeniSna, rom or qveyanas Soris arsebuli mravali problema 1990-ianebis dasawyisidan moyolebuli dagrovda, xolo axali impulsi `vardebis revoluciis~ Semdeg miiRo.4

saqarTvelos mTavrobam saTanadod ver Seafasa moskovis gadawyvetileba, radac ar unda dajdomoda mieRo is, rac undoda da ar daeTmo dasavleTisaTvis da gansakuTrebiT ki aSS-sTvis, postsabWoTa sivrce, kerZod ki _ samxreTi kavkasia. moskovma gadawyvita 2008 wlis agvistoSi gaecurebina Tbilisi da gamoeyenebina saqarTvelos xelisuflebis Secdomebi, SeWriliyo saqarTveloSi ara mxolod samxreT oseTisa da afxazeTis aneqsiis mizniT, aramed aseve saqarTvelos mTavroba Seecvala ruseTis mimarT SedarebiT `megobrulad~ ganwyobili xelisuflebiT. dasavleTidan wamosulma diplomatiurma Zalisxmevam aiZula ruseTi SeCerebuliyo da ar daekavebina saqarTvelos dedaqalaqi. dasavleTis Carevam moitana samSvidobo SeTanxmeba, magram ruseTma daarRvia SeTanxmebis pirobebi, ar gavida saqarTvelodan da 2008 wlis agvistoSi aRiara saqarTvelos ori teritoriis _ afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis _ damoukidebloba. afxazeTTan da samxreT oseTTan am SeTanxmebebis safuZvelze ruseTma maT teritoriebze ganalaga Tavisi samxedro bazebi, rac niSnavs saqarTvelos am ori mxaris _ qveynis teritoriis 20 procentis _ de faqto okupirebas.

omis Semdgomi civi mSvidoba

agvistos omis Semdeg saqarTvelosa da ruseTs arsebul viTarebasTan dakavSirebiT praqtikulad urTierTsawinaaRmdego da sruliad SeuTavsebeli xedva CamouyalibdaT. saqarTvelos miaCnia, rom misi istoriuli miwebi – afxazeTi 6

da samaCablo (samxreTi oseTi) _ okupirebuli aqvs ruseTs da rom ruseTma unda Sewyvitos okupacia. meore mxriv ki, ruseTis poziciiT, dReisaTvis arsebobs sami damoukidebeli saxelmwifo _ saqarTvelo, afxazeTi da samxreT oseTi. saqarTvelos pozicias mxars uWers evrokavSiri, amerikis SeerTebuli Statebi da saerTaSoriso sazogadoebis udidesi nawili, ruseTisas ki _ venesuela, nikaragua, vanuatu da tuvalu.

saqarTvelos deklarirebuli miznebia uzrunvelyos sakuTari suvereniteti da teritoriuli mTlianoba, aseve _ evropuli da evroatlantikuri integracia; xolo moskovisaTvis savsebiT miuRebelia samxreT kavkasiis, rogorc satranzito derefnis geopolitikuri mniSvneloba. rogorc Tengiz fxalaZe da nikolai silaevi aRniSnaven, `saqarTvelo ruseTis federaciis pozicias, romelic momdinareobs misi erovnuli interesebidan, miiCnevs dasaxuli amocanebis ganxorcielebis mTavar dabrkolebad‌ ufro metic, igi moskovs aRiqvams, rogorc misi usafrTxoebis winaSe mdgari gamowvevebisa da safrTxeebis mTavar wyaros~.5 radikalurad gansxvavebuli da urTierTgamomricxavia dasavleTisa da ruseTis poziciebi afxazeTTan da samxreT oseTTan dakavSirebiT. dasavleTs ar gaaCnia raime saSualeba gavlena iqonios ruseTze da Seacvlevinos pozicia. ruseTis mizania daicvas 2008 wlis omis droindeli sakuTari `monapovari~ da amdenad rTulia ruseTis gadarwmuneba, rom ukan waiRos Tavisi gadawyvetilebebi. qarTul-rusuli ekonomikuri urTierTobebi seriozulad dazaralda 2006 wels, rodesac or qveyanas Soris ganviTarebuli politikuri krizisis Sedegad (jaSuSebis skandalTan dakavSirebiT) moskovma dabloka ruseTSi qarTuli eqsporti, rac gamiznuli iyo qarTuli ekonomikis CasaZirad. miuxedavad am faqtisa, arasodes Sewyvetila rusuli investiciebi saqarTvelos ekonomikaSi, 2008 wlis omis Semdgomac ki amas erT-erTi yvelaze maRali maCvenebeli hqonda da magaliTad, 2010 wels saqarTveloSi pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis TvalsazrisiT, ruseTi mesame adgilas iyo niderlandisa da amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis Semdeg. 6 7

SesaZlebelia urTierTobebis gamosworeba? viTareba CixSia moqceuli da ukiduresad Znelia raime gamosavlis moZebna. SesaZloa, moskovSi bevrs hqonda imedi, rom saqarTvelos axali mTavroba ise aSkarad aRar gamoxatavda sakuTar prodasavlur simpaTias da mousmenda moskovs. amis safuZvels iZleoda axali premier-ministr biZina ivaniSvilis simdidris rusuli warmomavloba (igi miliarderi moskovSi saqmianobiT gaxda) da rusul elitasTan axlo nacnoboba. axali premier-ministris, sagareo saqmeTa ministrisa da sxva qarTveli oficialuri pirebis gancxadebebis mixedviT, kargad Cans rogorc ruseTTan urTierTobis dalagebis, ise dasavleTis, evrokavSirisa da evroatlantikuri struqturebisaken aRebuli kursis gagrZelebis survili.

mas Semdeg, rac TbilisSi xelisuflebaSi movida opoziciuri koalicia `qarTuli ocneba~, axalma mTavrobam garkveuli nabijebi gadadga moskovisaken: SeCerda rusulenovani satelevizio arxis, `pikis~, mauwyebloba, romelic didi xnis manZilze aRizianebda ruseTs; gakeTda sxvadasxva gancxadeba imis Taobaze, rom aucilebeli da sasurvelia am or qveyanas Soris aRdges urTierTobebi, pirvel rigSi _ ekonomikuri da savaWro, aseve kulturuli; gamocdili diplomati zurab abaSiZe dainiSna premier-ministris specialur warmomadgenlad ruseTTan molaparakebebSi. ar unda dagvaviwydes is faqtic, romelic moxda `qarTuli ocnebis~ xelisuflebaSi mosvlamde, rodesac Tbilisi win ar aRudga ruseTis msoflio savaWro organizaciaSi gawevrianebas.7

Tavidan ruseTi ise iqceoda, TiTqos Tbilisidan wamosul signalebs arc amCnevda da zogierTma rusma eqspertma daiwyo imis mtkicebac, rom saqarTvelom Zalumad unda mosTxovos ruseTs urTierTobebis aRdgena, TiTqos es saqarTvelos sWirdeba da ara _ ruseTs.8 zogma rusma eqspertma gabrazebac ki gamoxata Tbilisis mcdelobebTan dakavSirebiT. 9

faqts, rom TbilisSi axalma xelisuflebam evropul da evroatlantikur struqturebSi integracia Tavis 8

strategiul miznad gamoacxada, ar gauzrdia moskovis enTuziazmi, Tumca rusebs ar sjeraT, rom saqarTvelo miaRwevs am mizans.10 moskovs sWirdeba saqarTvelosTan normaluri urTierTobebi. mas sWirdeba saqarTveloze gamavali rkinigza, romelic iqneba satranzito gza somxeTSi ganlagebuli rusuli bazebisaken mimavali samxedro tvirTebisa Tu bevri sxva ramisTvis. pirvel rigSi ki, sWirdeba, rom Tbilisma uari Tqvas dasavlur kursze da daubrundes ruseTis `mfarvelobas~. rogorc Cans, saqarTvelosa da ruseTs Soris urTierTobebi ver aRdgeba moskovsa da Tbiliss Soris pirdapiri dialogis gareSe. am or qveyanas Soris diplomatiuri urTierTobebi Sewyda 2008 wlis agvistos omis Semdeg. Jenevis molaparakebebi aris or qveyanas Soris urTierTobis erTaderTi xelTarsebuli formati, magram winsvla am mimarTulebiT ar Cans. ruseTi jiutad inarCunebs Tavis pozicias da aranair daTmobaze ar midis. saqarTvelos, bunebrivia, ar SeuZlia aRiaros Tavisi istoriuli kuTxeebis dakargva da miiRos `axali geopolitikuri realoba~, rogorc 2008 wlis omis Sedegad gansazRvra viTareba moskovma. bolo dromde moskovi Tavs aCvenebda, TiTqos ar awuxebda TbilisTan normaluri urTierTobebis arqona, rom ar apirebda daemyarebina urTierTobebi prezident saakaSvilTan, xazs usvamda mis uaryofiT rols, romelic Seasrula or qveyanas Soris normaluri urTierTobebis damyarebisas. bolo dros ganviTarebuli movlenebi (moskovma Searbila Tavisi pozicia qarTul eqsportTan dakavSirebiT) aCens imeds, rom or qveyanas Soris nel-nela aRdgeba ekonomikuri kavSirebi,* Tumca es kavSirebi (rogorc aRiniSna) isedac arsebobda. rogorc vladimer papavam SeniSna, `miuxedavad qarTul-rusul urTierTobebSi arsebuli sirTuleebisa da dapirispirebebisa, gansakuTrebiT 2008 wlis agvistos omis Semdeg, or qveyanas Soris arsebuli ekonomikuri urTierTo* zog rus eqsperts sjera, rom ruseT-saqarTvelos Soris ekonomikuri kavSirebis aRdgena ar iqneba sakmarisi saqarTvelos ruseTisken SemobrunebisaTvis. ix.: Александр Крылов. Южный Кавказ: новые проблемы для Москвы. www.kavkazoved.info/ priew/2013/04/02/yuzhny-kavkaz-novye-problemy-dlya-mosvy.html 4.15.2013 9

bebi ar Sewyvetila‌ qarTul ekonomikaSi rusuli kapitalis Semodineba da investireba gagrZelda~.11 amrigad, Tuki or qveyanas Soris urTierTobebi unda damyardes, amis mniSvnelovani ekonomikuri safuZveli ukve arsebobs. ruseTis mcdeloba warmoaCinos, rom saqarTvelo misTvis umniSvnelo qveyanaa da rom saqarTvelovea dainteresebuli did mezobelTan urTierTobebis aRdgeniT, sinamdviles maincdamainc ar Seesabameba. ruseTs ara mxolod unda, rom aRidginos gavlena saqarTveloze, aramed imedovnebs kidec, rom Semoitans da ukarnaxebs konfederaciis ideas, rac moskovSi ukve ramdenjerme axsenes rusma politikosebma Tu eqspertebma. am ideis mixedviT, saqarTvelom, afxazeTma da samxreT oseTma unda Camoayalibon konfederacia da SeuerTdnen evraziis kavSirs. savaraudod, moskovs imedi aqvs, rom dasavleTis aqtiuri mxardaWeris gareSe (marTalia Tu tyuili?) darCenili saqarTvelo miiRebs da daeTanxmeba lamazad SefuTul konfederaciis models da mere ruseTic dayabuldeba saqarTvelosTan `Zmobis aRdgenas~. ra Tqma unda, kremli arc iseTi miamitia, rom es gegma advilad gansaxorcielebeli egonos, magram imedovnebs, rom erTdroulad sxvadasxva faqtoris gamoyenebiT raRacas miaRwevs. saqarTvelos mosaxleobis nawilisaTvis SesaZloa misaRebi iyos konfederaciis modeli, magram umetesobisaTvis, gansakuTrebiT axalgazrdobisTvis, moskovis SemoTavazeba iqneba miuRebeli. rogorc Cans, moskovs jer kidev sWirdeba saqarTveloze Zlieri zewolis gagrZeleba, magram arc amgvari qmedebebia warmatebis garantia. urTierTobebis normalizebis mxolod erTi gza arsebobs _ moskovma uari unda Tqvas neoimperialistur politikaze da daamyaros namdvilad keTilmezobluri urTierTobebi Tavisze gacilebiT sust mezobelTan. magram sakiTxavia _ misaRebia es gza moskovisaTvis? daskvna ganviTarebis dRevandel safexurze saqarTvelom naTlad gamokveTa Tavisi dasavluri arCevani, magram usafrTxoebis garemos da Sida politikis cvlilebebis gamo jer kidev 10

rCeba kiTxvebi _ ramdenad iqneba es arCevani sabo-loo da ucvleli? pasuxi mniSvnelovanwiladaa damokidebuli imaze, Tu ramdenad SeZlebs adgilobrivi elita erovnuli interesebis gaTvaliswinebiT saxelmwifos mSeneblobasTan da socialur-ekonomikur ganviTarebasTan dakavSirebuli kompleqsuri sakiTxebis mogvarebas. ruseTTan urTierToba aris erT-erTi Zlieri faqtori, romelmac SeiZleba ganapirobos saqarTvelos prodasavluri orientaciis Secvla. aSkaraa, rom moskovis zewola saqarTveloze gagrZeldeba da ara marto Tbilisis iZulebiT, rom ar misdios prodasavlur politikas, aramed, upirveles yovlisa, saqarTvelos darwmunebiT, rom Seeguos e.w. `axal geopolitikur realobas~, anu misi ori nawilis dakargvasa da ruseTis samxedro gaZlierebas saqarTvelos suverenul teritoriaze.

SesaZloa moskovi amjerad ufro `SemoqmedebiTad~ miudges sakiTxs da gamoiyenos misTvis tradiciuli daSantaJebisa da rbili Zalis elementebis nazavi.

Tbilisis axali xelmZRvaneloba mianiSnebs moskovs, rom unda ruseTTan ormxrivi normaluri urTierTobebis damyareba, Tumca bundovania, ras niSnavs `normaluri~ or qveyanas Soris urTierTobaSi da normalizaciisaTvis ra safasuris gadaxdisTvisaa mzad saqarTvelo. Zneli warmosadgenia ruseTma SeZlos Secvalos sakuTari moTxovnebi saqarTvelos mimarT da Searbilos sakuTari pozicia.

miuxedavad imisa, rom saxelmwifo institutebi dRes gacilebiT ufro ganviTarebulia, vidre aTi wlis win iyo, rom saqarTvelom SeZlo arCevnebis gziT xelisuflebis mSvidobiani gadacema, pirovnebebi qarTul politikaSi jer kidev asruleben, gadamwyvet Tu ara, sakmaod mniSvnelovan rols da amdenad, politikuri xelmZRvaneloba mniSvnelovanwilad gansazRvravs saqarTvelos samomavlo strategiul arCevans.

amrigad, rogorc xSirad xdeba xolme susti qveynis SemTxvevaSi, gare faqtorebma da garemoebebma SeiZleba gadamwyveti gavlena iqonion saqarTvelos sagareo politikasa da strategiul orientaciaze. es faqtorebi (ruseTis roli regionSi, dasavleTTan urTierToba, regionuli usafrTxoe11

bis problemebi, cvlilebebi evropis energetikul politikaSi da a.S.) aris yvelaze gaurkveveli da aramdgradi da, Sesabamisad, ar aris advili samomavlo viTarebis ganWvreta. gamoyenebuli literatura 1 am sakiTxTan dakavSirebiT ix. rusi eqspertebis naSromebi: А. Арбатов. Безопасность: Российский выбор. Эпицентр, Москва, 1999, стр. 163-170; Сергей Ознобищев. Кого лечить «от Грузии»? «Международные процессы», Том 9, №2 (26), Май-Август 2011, http://www.intertrends.ru /seventeenth/016.htm 2 Stephen Jones. Georgia: A Political History Since Independence. I. B. Tauris, London-New York, 2013, p. 250 3 Anthony Cordesman. The Georgia War and the Century of “Real Power”, CSIS commentary, August 18, 2008 4 Сергей Маркедонов. Россия-Грузия: без завышенных ожиданий, Политком.ру, 12.10.2012, http://www/politcom.ru/print.php?id=14668, 15.10.2012 5 Tengiz Pkhaladze, Nikolay Silaev. Russian-Georgian Relations in the Context of European Security, in Russia and Georgia: Searching the Way Out. GFSIS, 2011, p.12 6 Civil.ge, 12 марта 2010, http://www.civil.ge/rus/article.php?id=21772 7 Russia’s Accession to the WTO: the perspective from Tbilisi. International Alert.

12.20.2011, http://www.international-alert.org/print/3165 8 Андрей Епифанцев. Давайте, разрешим Грузии поухаживать за Россией, Regnum, 04.11.2012, http://www.regnum.ru/news/polit/1589591.html?forprint, 01.14.2013; Interview with Fedor Lukianov. IPN (Interpressnews), www.in-terpressnews.ge/ge/eqskluzivi/217960-thu-saqartvelo-uars-ar-itkvis-af (In Georgian) 9 Яна Амелина. Команда Иванишвили – «второе издание» режима Саакашвили, Regnum. 19.11.2012, http://www.regnum.ru/news/polit/1594982.html?forprint, 20.11.2012 10 Fyodor Lukianov. Georgia as Russia’s Future Asset, “Russia In Global Affairs”.

15 February 2013. p. 2 http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/print/redcol/georgia-as-Russia’sFuture-Asset - 15852 04.06.2013 11 Vladimir Papava. The Evolution of Economic Relations between Georgia and Russia in the Post-Soviet Period: Past Trends and Perspectives. In Russia and Georgia: Searching the Way Out. GFSIS, 2011, p.64

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