ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÓÔÒÀÔÄÂÉÉÓÀ ÃÀ ÓÀÄÒÈÀÛÏÒÉÓÏ ÖÒÈÉÄÒÈÏÁÀÈÀ ÊÅËÄÅÉÓ ×ÏÍÃÉ
GEORGIAN FOUNDATION FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
eqspertis azri
irakli menaRariSvili
CrdiloeTi kavkasia - saqarTvelos problemuri samezoblo
10 2013
publikacia daibeWda amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis saelCos finansuri mxardaWeriT.
redaqtori:
rusudan margiSvili
teqnikuri redaqtori:
artem meliq-nubarovi
saavtoro uflebebi daculia da ekuTvnis saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis fonds. werilobiTi nebarTvis gareSe wignis arc erTi nawili ar SeiZleba gadaibeWdos nebismieri, maT Soris, eleqtronuli an meqanikuri formiT. Š saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa kvlevis fondi 2013 weli
ISSN 1512-4835 ISBN 978-9941-0-5826-4
regionuli TanamSromloba, gansakuTrebiT ki urTierToba uSualo samezoblosTan, saqarTvelos sagareo politikis udavod erT-erTi yvelaze mgrZnobiare aspeqtia. civi omis dasrulebisa da sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg mTlianad kavkasia daZabulobis arealad iqca da saqarTvelosac, rogorc damoukidebel saxelmwifos, Tavisi erovnuli proeqtis formirebac da ganxorcielebac kvlav am rTul garemocvaSi mouxda. am garemocvis erTi mniSvnelovani, rTuli da amasTan saintereso elementi CrdiloeTi kavkasiaa. eTnikurad da religiurad mravalferovani es Crdilokavkasiuri samezoblo imiTac aris gansakuTrebuli, rom igi saqarTvelos didi mezobeli qveynis _ ruseTis _ Semadgeneli nawilia da amave dros ruseTis federaciis, albaT, yvelaze problemuri nawili. ruseTTan saqarTvelos urTierTobis rTuli xasiaTis gaTvaliswinebiT advili gasagebia, Tu ra mniSvneloba aqvs saqarTvelosaTvis saerTod CrdiloeT kavkasiisa da konkretulad misi calkeuli administraciuli erTeulisadmi swori politikuri midgomis, dialogis koreqtuli tonis SerCevas. vfiqrobT, es narkvevi dainteresebul mkiTxvels daexmareba Cveni CrdiloeT samezoblos realobaTa sworad gagebaSi. narkvevi momzadda strategiul gamokvlevaTa institutSi Catarebuli kvlevis safuZvelze. I. CrdiloeTi kavkasia _ zogadi mimoxilva CrdiloeTi kavkasia ruseTis imperias me-19 saukuneSi kavkasiuri omebis Sedegad SeuerTda. CrdiloeTi kavkasia teritoriulad ruseTis 2,1 procents Seadgens, magram aq ruseTis mosaxleobis 11,8 procenti cxovrobs. regioni Svidi, istoriulad Crdilokavkasiuri eTnosiT dasaxlebuli respublikisagan Sedgeba: adiRe, yaraCai3
CerqezeTi, yabardo-balyareTi, CrdiloeT oseTi, inguSeTi, CeCneTi da daRestani. mkvlevarebi mas xSirad or nawilad yofen: aRmosavleTi nawili _ daResatani, CeCneTi, inguSeTi; dasavleTi Crdilokavkasia _ adiRe, yaraCai-CerqezeTi da CrdiloeTi oseTi. sainteresoa, rom yabardo-balyareTs zogi dasavleTs, xolo zogi ki aRmosavleTs miakuTvnebs. regioni sakmaod Wrelia eTnikuri TvalsazrisiT, gansakuTrebiT daRestani, sadac aTobiT gansxvavebuli eTnikuri jgufi cxovrobs. wina saukunis 90-ian wlebSi Crdilo kavkasiaSi, ruseTis danarCen regionebTan SedarebiT, yvelaze aqtiuri iyo centridanuli procesebi, magram droTa ganmavlobaSi TandaTanobiT Semcirda brZola damoukideblobisaTvis. dRes mkvlevarTa nawili miiCnevs, rom regionSi eTnikuri separatizmi aRarc ki arsebobs da rom eTnikurma separatizmma realizacia religiur separatizmSi hpova. aqve unda aRiniSnos, rom yvela mkvlevari religiur eqstremizms regionis erTerT mTavar problemad miiCnevs. specialistebi aRniSnaven, rom islamuri fundamentalizmi gamoyenebul iqna, raTa antirusul moZraobas moecva mTeli CrdiloeTi kavkasia. dReisaTvis regionSi moqmedebs koordinirebuli, e.w. islamuri iatakqveSeTi, romelsac saTaveSi udgas TviTgamocxadebuli emiri doku umarovi da romelsac `imarat-kavkazi~ (`kavkasiuri saemiro~) ewodeba. Tavidanve teritoria, romelzedac pretenzias acxadebs imarati, eqvs subieqtad, vilaiaTad, iyo gayofili. masSi Sevidnen: daRestani, noxCiiCo (CeCneTi), galgaiCe (inguSeTi), iristoni (Crdilo oseTi), noRais tramali (stavropolis mxare) da, aseve, yabardos, balyareTis da yaraCais gaerTianebuli vilaiaTi. saemiros moqmedebis ZiriTadi forma terorizmia. teraqtebis raodenobis mixedviT ruseTs erT-erTi pirveli adgili uWiravs msoflioSi, xolo teraqtebis 80 procentze meti CrdiloeT kavkasiaze modis. terorizmma regionSi gansakuTrebulad radikaluri da xSiri forma miiRo, magaliTad, TviTmkvleli qali teroristebis saxiT. zogierTi monacemiT, bolo sami wlis manZilze mTlianad ruseTis 4
masStabiT daaxloebiT 900 teroristul aqti ganxorcielda. klanuroba damaxasiaTebelia Crdilokavkasiuri mosaxleobis socialuri struqturis ZiriTadi nawilisaTvis. klanebis brZolaSi ama Tu im formiT CarTulia TiTqmis mTeli mosaxleoba. miiCneven, rom Crdilokavkasiur klanebs intensiuri korufciuli kontaqtebi aqvT CinovnikebTan federalur doneze, ruseTis Zalovani struqturebis warmomadgenlebTan. klanebis brZola Crdilo kavkasiaSi organuladaa Casmuli ruseTis mTlian, mZlavr korufciul sistemaSi, romelsac ruseTis maSindelma prezidentma dimitri medvedevma Tavis gamosvlaSi ruseTTan SedarebiTac ki zRvars gadasuli (запредельная) uwoda. regionSi SedarebiTi stabilurobis miRwevis erTerTi forma iyo da kvlavac rCeba centris mier adgilobrivi mmarTvelebis daniSvna da maTi araoficialuri dafinanseba (federaluri biujetidan gamoyofili xarjebi ara uSualod regions, aramed am regionis mmarTveli elitis loialobis yidvas xmardeba). xelisuflebis mier gamoyenebuli situaciis daregulirebis Zaladobrivi forma iseT regionSi, rogoric CrdiloeTi kavkasiaa, sadac Tundac jer kidev moqmedebs sisxlis aRebis wesi, Sobs axal Zaladobas. yvelaferi es iwvevs ekonomikuri aramdgradobis gaxangrZlivebas, mosaxleobis umuSevrobas da siRatakes. amiT sabolood isargebla radikalur-islamisturma moZraobam da sazogadoebis ukmayofilebis realizaciis gzad dasaxa `imarat kavkazis~ saxiT SariaTis kanonebze damyarebuli saxelmwifos Camoyalibeba da umuSevari axalgazrdobis `jihadis~ mebrZolebad gadaqceva. bolo drois zogierTi ZiriTadi tendencia specialistebis azriT, ruseTis centraluri xelisflebis Zalisxmevam garkveuli Sedegebi moitana: 1. ruseTi cdilobs saerTaSoriso sazogadoebas daumtkicos, rom regionSi moqmedi teroristuli dajgufeba saerTaSoriso xasiaTisaa. ruseTis federaciis umaRlesma 5
sasamarTlom `imarat kavkazi~ saerTaSoriso teroristul organizaciad gamoacxada. am formiT ruseTma nawilobriv SeZlo sakuTari qmedeba CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi gaemarTlebina terorizmTan brZolis motiviT (a. malaSenko). 2. dasrulda CeCneTis meore omi, Tanac ara imdenad efeqturi antiteroristuli operaciis xarjze, ramdenadac Tavad teroristebs Soris ganxeTqilebiT da ramdenime maTganis gadabirebiT ruseTis mxares (kadirovebi kremlis gansakuTrebul miRwevad iTvleba). 3. ruseTma SeZlo eTnikuri separatizmis organizaciuli formis ganadgurebas. rogorc aRiniSna, separatistebis nawilma datova regioni, xolo meore nawili islamuri separatizmisaTvis brZolas SeuerTda. 4. miRwevad SeiZleba CaiTvalos efeqturi adgilobrivi mmarTvelebis daniSvna, romlebic loialuri arian centrisadmi da imavdroulad regionSi garkveul warmatebebs aRweven. amasTan, mougvarebelia regionis problemaTa mniSvnelovani nawili: 1. centrma ver moaxerxa stabilurobis gamyareba da CeCneTis problemebis `mogvarebisas gamorCa~ daRestnis, inguSeTis da sxvaTa sirTuleebis mogvarebis aucilebloba. 2. mniSvnelovan Secdomas warmoadgens regionuli politikis personalizacia. 3. kvlavindeburad mougvarebelia terorizmis sakiTxi regionSi, romelTan brZolis erTaderT formas dRemde warmoadgens Zalismieri politikis warmoeba. 2010 wlis 29 marts mTeli msoflio SesZra moskovSi ganxorcielebulma teraqtebma. aSS-is saxelmwifo mdivanma ganacxada, rom Tanamedrove kacobrioba saerTo problemis winaSe dgas da terorizmi aris safrTxe, romelic nebismier adamians Tanabari saSiSroebis winaSe ayenebs. Tumca rusi 6
eqsperti miiCnevs, rom ruseTis SemTxvevaSi problema gacilebiT seriozulia: `da mainc, ruseTisaTvis terorizmi, albaT, ufro rTul problemas warmoadgens, vidre evropisa da amrikisaTvis. Crdilo kavkasia, radikaluri islamis bude, mdebareobs Cveni qveynis sazRvrebis farglebSi~ (m. lipmani). II. Crdilo kavkasia, rogorc faqtori qarTul-rusul urTierTobebSi saqarTvelo-ruseTis urTierTobis ukanaskneli ori aTeuli wlis istoria (sabWoTa kavSiris daSlisa da saqarTvelos suverenul saxelmwifod gamocxadebis Semdeg) mowmobs, rom Crdilo kavkasiam am urTierTobaTa ganviTarebaSi gansakuTrebuli da dramatuli adgili daiWira. qarTvel da Crdilokavkasiel xalxebs erTmaneTTan urTierTobisa da TanamSromlobis mravalsaukunovani istoria akavSirebT. Tanaarsebobis xangrZlivi periodis ganmavlobaSi qarTveli da Crdilokavkasieli xalxebi bunebrivi mokavSireni iyvnen. ruseTis mier kavkasiis dapyrobis procesi daiwyo 1801 wels saqarTvelos aneqsiiT. rusuli armiis mier CrdilokavkasielTa da, maT Soris, imam Samilis winaaRmdeg xangrZlivi periodis ganmavlobaSi warmoebul brZolaSi ruseTis samxedro samsaxurSi myof qarTvelTa nawilic monawileobda. miuxedavad amgvari viTarebisa, qarTvelma da Crdilokavkasielma xalxebma erTmaneTTan kavSiri XIX saukuneSic SeinarCunes. XIX saukunis dasawyisidan Tbilisi gadaiqca kavkasiel xalxTa istoriis, kulturisa da eTnografiis mecnieruli kvlevis centrad. Crdilo kavkasielTa masobrivi gadasxlebebis (muhajiroba) procesi da misi Sedegebi vrclad aisaxa imdroindel qarTul presaSi, saidanac Cans, rom mTielTa tragedias qarTvelebi gulistkiviliTa da TanagrZnobiT Sexvdnen. sabWoTa kavSiris periodSi Crdilokavkasiuri erebi da saqarTvelo erTi avtokratiuli saxelmwifos farglebSi 7
aRmoCndnen, magram radgan sabWoeTis erovnuli politikis Sesabamisad qarTuli da Crdilokavkasiuri kulturuli urTierTobebi politikurad sanqcirebuli iyo, orve mxarem es SesaZlebloba srulad gamoiyena. Tbilisis saxelmwifo universiteti am TanamSromlobis namdvil centrad iqca. igi dResac erTaderTi universitetia msoflioSi, sadac kavkasiur enaTa yvela jgufia warmodgenili: afxazur-adiReuri, naxuri da daRestnuri. Tbilisis saxelmwifo universitetSi ubixuri enis kursicaa, risi analogic sxvagan arsad gvxvdeba. konfliqtebi kavkasiaSi sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg sabWoTa kavSiris daSlis Semdeg is daZabuloba, romelic mravali wlis ganmavlobaSi arsebobda, Ria konfliqtebSi gadaizarda. araerT SemTxvevaSi kavkasiis teritoriaze am konfliqtebma sisxliani dapirispirebis saxe miiRo, amasTan kavkasiis nebismier wertilSi mimdinare konfliqti, rogorc wesi, aisaxeboda mTel kavkasiaze. sabWoTa kavSiris faqtobriv daSlamde saqarTveloSi uaRresad mniSvnelovani movlenebi moxda. 1988-1989 wlebSi saqarTveloSi Zalas ikrebs erovnul-gamaTavisuflebeli moZraoba, romelsac ruseTi upirispirebs kavkasiuri eTnosebis _ afxazebisa d osebis _ faqtors. 90-iani wlebis dasawyisSi Crdilo kavkasiaSi separatistuli moZraobis gaZlierebam saqarTveloSi gaaCina imedi, rom sakuTari problemebis gamo ruseTi Secvlida soxumisa da cxinvalis separatistuli moZraobebis mxardaWeris politikas. Crdilo kavkasiis mosaxleobaSi bevri adamiani gulwrfelad fiqrobda, rom `daCagrul Zmebs _ osebs da afxazebs~ unda daxmareboda, magram saqarTvelos Sida saqmeebSi Carevis organizaciis xasiaTi da daxarjuli resursebis raodenoba naTlad aCvenebda, rom am saqmeSi ruseTis specsamsaxurebi ara marto CarTuli, aramed ZiriTadi moTamaSeebic ki iyvnen. 1989 wels Crdilo kavkasiaSi Camoyalibda `kavkasiis 8
mTiel xalxTa konfederacia~, romelmac Tavisi pirveli yriloba soxumSi Caatara. Tavidanve cxadi iyo am organizaciis antiqarTuli mimarTuleba. magaliTad, saqarTvelos kanonier xelisuflebasTan SeTanxmebis gareSe Tavisi Stab-binis adgilad konfederaciam qalaqi soxumi gamoacxada. eqspertTa umravlesoba miiCnevs, rom `kavkasiis mTiel xalxTa konfederacia~ ruseTis specsamsaxurebis mier mTlianad an nawilobriv imarTeboda saqarTvelos winaaRmdeg Crdilokavkasiuri faqtoris asamoqmedeblad. 1990 wels saqarTveloSi faqtobrivad Seicvala xelisuflebis xasiaTi. sabWoTa kavSiris oficialur daSlamde saqarTvelos mosaxleobam sakuTari nacionaluri moZrobis lideri, zviad gamsaxurdia, sabWoTa saqarTvelos uzenaesi sabWos Tavmjdomared airCia. 1991 wlis aprilSi saqarTvelom damoukidebloba gamoacxada, xolo amave wels, dekemberSi, ssrk daiSala da saqarTvelo oficialurad gaxda damoukidebeli. jer kidev 1990 wlis 11 dekembers saqarTvelos uzenaesma sabWom gaauqma samxreT oseTis avtonomiuri olqi, xolo 1991 wlis martSi, prezident z. gamsaxurdias gankargulebiT, cxinvalSi Sevida sabWoTa kavSiris Sinagani jaris nawili. male maT sxva araformaluri SeiaraRebuli formirebebi daemata. daiwyo qarTul-osuri konfliqti. saqarTvelodan ruseTs, gansakuTrebiT ki Crdilo oseTs, 40 aTasze meti devnili miadga. teritoriuli pretenziebis gamo osur-inguSur konfliqtSi saqarTvelodan devnilma adamianebma radikaluri antiinguSuri pozicia daikaves da xeli Seuwyves inguSTa gandevnas maTi sacxovrebeli adgilebidan. Crdilo kavkasia da saqarTvelo erTmaneTis Sida konfliqtebSi uSualod CarTuli aRmoCnda. prezident z. gamsaxurdias dros saqarTvelos Crdilokavkasiuri politikis gamokveTili mimarTuleba iyo axlo urTierTobis damyareba CeCneTis respublikasTan. saqarTvelos maSindeli xelisufleba prezident z. gamsaxurdias meTaurobiT cdilobda saqarTvelos damoukideblobisaTvis myari safuZvlis Seqmnas Crdilo kavkasielebis da, kerZod, CeCneTis mxardaWeriT. saqarTvelo 9
imedovnebda, rom osebTan dapirispirebaSic is Tavis mxares daiyenebda CeCnebs, rogorc inguSebis monaTesave eTnoss. amasTan, 1991 wels prezidentebma z. gamsaxurdiam da j. dudaevma erToblivad wamoayenes kavkasiuri konfederaciis idea. masSi afxazeTs `gansakuTrebuli roli~ eniWeboda. amiT aseve unda mogvarebuliyo afxazeTis sakiTxic. es iyo z. gamsaxurdias mcdeloba Crdilokavkasiuri faqtori gamoe-yenebina rogorc Sida problemebis mosagvareblad, ise qarTul-rusul urTierTobebSi sakuTari politikuri miznebis misaRwevad. SeiZleba iTqvas, rom saqarTvelosaTvis es iyo sakuTari sisustis gadalaxvis wyurviliT gamowveuli aqti. CeCneTisaTvis ki es iyo kavSiris SesaZlebloba gare samyarosTan, radgan saqarTvelo suverenul saxelmwifos warmoadgenda. bunebrivia, rom amgvari politikiT z. gamsaxurdia daupirispirda ruseTis xelmZRvanelobas, rac kidev erTi mizezi gaxda imisa, rom 1991 wlis samoqalaqo omSi amierkavkasiis samxedro olqis jarebma mxari dauWires xelisuflebidan mis Zaladobrivi gziT moSorebas. devnilma prezidentma gamsaxurdiam sabolood groznoSi daido bina. faqtobrivad, amiT Crdilokavkasiuri faqtoris amoqmedebis kidev erTi potenciuri piroba Seiqmna. 1991 wels, roca saqarTvelos centralur xelisuflebasa da afxazeTis separatistul Zalebs Soris dapirispireba gamwvavda, kavkasiel mTielTa konfederaciam mouwoda ruseTis xelisuflebas `mieca politikuri Sefaseba~ qarTul-afxazuri konfliqtisaTvis. qarTul saxelmwifosTan Crdilo kavkasielTa dapirispirebis yvelaze mwvave gamovlineba ukavSirdeba qarTul-afxazur SeiaraRebul konfliqts, romelic 1992 wlis 14 agvistos afxazeTis teritoriaze saqarTvelos saxelmwifo sabWos SeiaraRebuli formirebebis SeyvaniT daiwyo. amave Tves groznoSi gamarTul yrilobaze, rogorc mravali eqsperti Tavis SefasebebSi aRniSnavs, `sabolood gacxadda konfederaciis Seqmnis mizani~. man mobilizacia gamoacxada afxazeTis dasaxmareblad saqarTvelos winaaRmdeg sabrZolvelad. yrilobis mier miRebul deklaraciaSi 10
vkiTxulobT: `radgan ar arsebobs sxva gza gayvanil iqnes saqarTvelos okupaciuri jari afxazeTidan, Cven vadgenT: 1. konfederaciis yvela centralurma organizaciam unda gaagzavnos moxaliseebi afxazeTis teritoriaze samxedro winaaRmdegobis gasawevad. 2. konfederaciis samxedro formaciebma unda awarmoon samxedro operaciebi nebismieri Zalis winaaRmdeg, rom SeCerdes maTi SeWra afxazeTSi. 3. Tbilisi gamocxaddes ubedurebis zonad. 4. qarTuli nacionalobis yvela adamiani konfederaciis teritoriaze unda iqces mZevlad 5. unda gaCerdes yvela tipis tvirTi, romelic saqarTvelosken miemarTeba. 6. moxseneba mzadyofnis Sesaxeb unda gaigzavnos centralur organoSi 1992 wlis agvistomde~. unda iTqvas, rom konfederaciis am mowodebisTanave ruseTis danarCen teritoriaze, rogorc aRniSnaven, vladivostokSic ki, daiwyo moxaliseTa mobilizacia afxazeTSi saqarTvelos winaaRmdeg sabrZolvelad. sagulisxmoa is faqti, rom maSin, rodesac ruseTi farTomasStabian gamanadgurebel oms awarmoebda CeCeni xalxis winaaRmdeg, konfederacias ar gadaudgams arc erTi nabiji `CeCeni Zmebis~ dasacavad. faqtobrivad, afxazeTis omis Semdeg konfederacias ar darCa adgili Crdilokavkasiur politikaSi. 1990-1993 wlebSi saqarTvelos teritoriaze mimdinare orma konfliqtma gamoiwvia saqarTvelos sakmaod mZafri dapirispireba Crdilo kavkasiasTan: oseTis konfliqtis gamo _ Crdilo oseTTan, xolo afxazeTis gamo _ adiReurCerqezul eTnosTan uSualod da amis Sedegad _ mTel Crdilo kavkasiasTan, radganac am omSi afxazeTis mxares ibrZodnen Crdilokavkasiuri warmoSobis TiTqmis yvela eTnosis warmomadgenlebi, rogorc moxaliseebi, ise daqiravebulebi. gansakuTrebiT masobrivi iyo yabardoelTa da, aseve, kazakTa miliciis SenaerTebis monawileoba saomar moqmedebebSi. separatistebis mxares ibrZoda Crdilo oseTis batalionic. 1993 wlis seqtemberSi daeca afxazeTis dedaqalaqi soxumi. qarTulma samTavrobo jarebma mZime damarcxeba ganicades. afxazi separatistebis da Crdilo kavkasielebis SenaerTebTan erTad qarTvelebis winaaRmdeg ibrZoda ruseTis 11
regularuli samxedro SenaerTebi, maT Soris, specialuri daniSnulebis razmebi. am damarcxebas didi msxverpli mohyva, 250 aTasi adamiani ki devnilad iqca. CeCneTis omebi da saqarTvelo. pankisis movlenebi pankisis xeobaSi da mis irgvliv ganviTarebuli movlenebi ruseT-saqarTvelos urTierTobebSi Crdilo kavkasiis faqtoris moqmedebis erT-erTi yvelaze dramatuli epizodia. rac mTavaria, daZabuloba da urTierTbraldebebi pankisis Temis garSemo dResac aqtualuria. drodadro saqarTvelos kvlav adanaSauleben imaSi, rom is xels uwyobs `teroristi boevikebis~ gadamzadebas sakuTar teritoriaze da, ufro metic, afinansebs maT. 1994 wlis dekemberSi dawyebulma CeCnuri separatizmis samxedro gziT daZlevis mcdelobam Sedegi ar moutana ruseTis xelisuflebas. orwliani sisxliani brZolebis Semdeg ruseTis armia iZulebuli iyo daetovebina CeCneTi. 1997 wels aslan masxadovi, CeCneTis mier arCeuli da ruseTis oficialuri pirebis mier aRiarebuli prezidenti, Cavida moskovSi da prezident elcinTan moawera xeli xelSekrulebas, romelSic mxareebi valdebulebas iRebdnen yvela sadavo sakiTxi ruseTis federaciasa da CeCneTs Soris mSvidobiani gzebiT gadaewyvitaT. miuxedevad imisa, rom am xelSekrulebas or damoukidebel saxelmwifos Soris gaformebuli dokumentis forma hqonda, realurad, rogorc istorikosi jibrail gakaevi aRniSnavs: `saxelmwifo iCkeria ar Sedga arc saerTaSoriso-samarTlebrivi aRiarebis (de iure) da arc sajaro xelisuflebis institutebis mSeneblobisa da adamianTa ZiriTadi uflebebisa da Tavisuflebebis dacvis TvalsazrisiT~. saqarTvelom, romelsac samoqalaqo omi axladgamovlili hqonda da cdilobda moepovebina Sida satbiluroba, moaxerxa ar yofiliyo CaTreuli ruseTCeCneTis dapirispirebaSi. miuxedavad imisa, rom saqarTvelos oficialurad ar uRiarebia CeCneTis damoukidebloba, 12
rogorc prezidenti eduard SevardnaZe, aseve aslan masxadovi Seecadnen CeCneTsa da saqarTvelos Soris axleburi urTierTobebis damyarebas. 1997 wlis agvistoSi aslan masxadovi Tbiliss ewvia da Sexvedrebi da molaparakebebi gamarTa qveynis pirvel pirebTan. imave wels TbilisSi Camovida CeCneTis parlamentis delegacia. gagrZelda molaparakebebi ori kavkasieli xalxis saqmian kavSirebze maTi Semdgomi daaxloebis mizniT. molaparakebebSi dasmul iqna afxazeTis konfliqtis mSvidobiani mogvarebis sakiTxic. masxadovma gamoTqva sinanuli CeCnebis afxazeTis omSi monawileobis gamo. CeCneTis respublika iCkeriis mmarTvelobis ZiriTadi problema gaxda is, rom ver moxerxda CeCneTis dekriminalizacia. qveyana am periodSi samarTaldamrRvevTa saTareSo adgilad iqca. 1999 wlis 7 agvistos moxda CeCen mebrZolTa masirebuli SeWra daRestanSi Samil basaevis xelmZRvanelobiT, rasac didi msxverpli mohyva, xolo seqtemberSi ruseTis ramdenime qalaqSi sacxovrebeli saxlebis afeTqeba moxda, rac aseve CeCen boevikebs miaweres. prezidenti a. masxadovi maSinve gaemijna am teroristul aqtebs. Tumca is Riad ar gaemijna Samil basaevs da ar gadasca terorizmSi eWvmitanilebi ruseTis marTlmsajulebas. misma specialurma warmomdgenelma moskovSi m. vaCagaevma es imiT axsna, rom a. masxadovi xelmZRvanelobda ruseTis magaliTiT, romelmac arc erTxel ar aiRo pasuxismgebloba Tavisi moqalaqeebis moqmedebebze, romlebic samxedro daxmarebas uwevdnen separatistul Zalebs saqarTvelos teritoriaze _ afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi. 1999 wlis oqtomberSi ruseTma CeCneTSi kvlav daiwyo samxedro moqmedebebi, romlebsac terorizmis ganadgurebis operacia uwoda. es operacia cnobilia CeCneTis meore omis saxeliT. CeCneTis II omis dros ruseTis xelisufleba maqsimalurad Seecada, rom ama Tu im formiT am omSi CaeTria saqarTvelo. Tavdapirvelad, omis dawyebidan sul ramdenime 13
dReSi, ruseTis prezidentma boris elcinma prezident e. SevardnaZes sTxova, neba mieca ruseTis samxedro bazebi CeCneTze SetevisaTvis gamoeyenebinaT. am dros ruseTis premieri ukve vladimer v. putini iyo da am omSi warmateba misi gaprezidentebis aucilebel pirobas warmoadgenda. amitom v. putinma sakuTari diplomatiuri, Tu sxva arxebiT scada saqarTvelos dayolieba, rom ruseTsaqarTvelos sazRvris CeCneTis monakveTze saqarTvelos mxridan ruseTis sasazRvro jarebi ganeTavsebina. rogorc im dros saxelmwifo ministri vaJa lorTqifaniZe ixsenebs, putini sanacvlod Tanaxma iyo mdinare fsouze qarTveli mesazRvreebi daeyenebina. saqarTvelom am winadadebaze uari Tqva jer erTi imitom, rom ar iyo ndoba ruseTis mimarT. garda amisa esmodaT, rom sazRvarTan ruseTis jaris Cayenebis gamo SeiZleboda mTeli kavkasia dapirispireboda saqarTvelos da konfliqti saqarTveloSi gadmosuliyo. omis dawyebidan ramdenime dReSi saqarTvelosaken daiZra CeCeni ltolvilebis didi nakadi... arsebobs safuZvliani eWvi, rom maTi saqarTvelos teritoriaze gamodevna mizanmimarTulad xdeboda. am nakadSi iyvnen is qistebi, romelebsac hqondaT saqarTvelos moqalaqeoba, magram swavlobdnen an muSaobdnen CeCneTSi, iyvnen qistebi, romlebic saqarTveloSi daibadnen, magram ruseTis moqalaqeoba miiRes da iyvnen CeCnebi, romelTac saqarTvelosTan ar hqondaT kavSiri. ukve noemberSi qveyanaSi 5000 adamiani Camovida. rasizmisa da Seuwynareblobis winaaRmdeg evropuli komisiis monacemebiT, saqarTvelom sul 8000 ltolvili miiRo. amaTgan devnilis oficialuri statusi mxolod ruseTis moqalaqeebs mieniWa. saqarTvelos gadawyvetilebam gza ar miecaT ruseTis jarisaTvis, Zalian daZaba ruseT-saqarTvelos urTierToba, Tumca am urTierTobis dinamika im droisaTvis isedac garTulebisaken midioda. saqme is iyo, rom am droisaTvis saqarTvelom daiwyo sakuTari, ruseTisagan damoukidebeli, politikis warmoeba. saqarTvelom SeZlo qveynis SigniT stabilurobisaTvis mieRwia 14
da radikaluri reformebis gzas dadgomoda. saqarTvelom ganacxada survili evropuli da evroatlantikuri integraciisa, miaRwia SeTanxmebas saqarTvelodan ruseTis sasazRvro jarebisa da samxedro bazebis gayvanis Taobaze. qveyanam SeiZina mniSvnelovani satranzito funqcia kaspiis da Sua aziis navTobisa da gazis evropisaTvis miwodebisaTvis. ruseTis mmarTveli elitis SefasebiT, es yvelaferi ewinaaRmdegeboda ruseTis erovnul interesebs. saqarTvelos mier aRebuli kursi unda damuxruWebuliyo. pankisis xeobis irgvliv ganviTarebuli movlenebis wamyvani mizezi swored es garemoeba gaxda. ruseTSi daiwyo masirebuli da mizanmimarTuli propagandistuli kampania saqarTvelos winaaRmdeg. misi laitmotivi iyo _ saqarTvelo exmareba CeCen separatistebs ruseTis winaaRmdeg sabrZolvelad. `pankisi ruseTisaTvis zurgSi danaa~, `SevardnaZes da mis okeanisgaRmel bosebs undaT kavkasia erT did, sisxlian Wrilobad aqcion~, `pankisis xeoba _ banditTa TavSesafari~ _ aseTi ganwyoba inergeboda ruseTis masmediiT. aTasobiT CeCneTidan devnilTan erTad pankisis xeobaSi moxvdnen e.w. `boevikebi~, is adamianebi, vinc iaraRiT xelSi ibrZoda ruseTis armiis winaaRmdeg. ufro metic, ruseTis jarebi ganzrax uxsnidnen derefans CeCenTa sabrZolo SenaerTebs, raTa isini saqarTveloSi gadmosuliyvnen. maTi raodenoba zustad cnobili ar iyo. pankisis xeoba, sadac kriminogenuli situacia omis dawyebamdec mZime iyo, praqtikulad gamovida saqarTvelos xelisuflebis kontrolidan. magaliTad, xeobaSi marTlac daido bina ruslan gelaevis SeiaraRebulma razmma, iyvnen agreTve sxva muslimanuri qveynebidan Camosuli pirebic. ruseTis xelisufleba saqarTvelos winaaRmdeg, garda propagandistuli Zalisxmevisa, konkretul da metad mZime moqmedebaze gadavida. sistematurad irRveoda saqarTvelos sahaero sivrce, ibombeboda xeoba da misi mimdebare teritoriebi. iyo adamianis msxverplic. ruseTis xelisuflebas gansakuTrebiT gaexsna xeli 2001 wlis 11 seqtembris Semdeg. CeCen meamboxeebs saerTaSoriso 15
teroristebis iarliyi miakres. msoflios ki esmoda, rom `ruseTis mcdeloba warmoaCinos sakuTari kampania CeCneTSi, rogorc nawili internacionaluri brZolisa terorizmis winaaRmdeg, mizanmimarTulad amartivebs situacias~. magram ruseTma mainc miaRwia mizans _ msoflio sazogadoeba daTanxmda es adamianebi ganexila, rogorc teroristebi. miT umetes, rom ruseTis da dasavleTis presaSi iwereboda, rom al-qaidas avRaneTidan gamoqceuli wevrebi Tavs pankisis xeobas afarebdnen. gaCnda versia usama bin ladenis pankisSi yofnis Sesaxeb. msoflioSi zogadi ganwyobis am fonze 2002 wlis 11 seqtembers, amerikaSi momxdari tragediis wlisTavze, vladimer putinma muqariT aRsavse gancxadeba gaakeTa saqarTvelos misamarTiT. man saqarTvelo daasaxela teroristul anklavad, daadanaSaula saerTaSoriso terorizmis mxardaWeraSi, Tqva, rom saqarTvelo safrTxes uqmnis maT erovnul usafrTxoebas da Riad ganacxada, rom ruseTs aqvT sruli ufleba daiwyos samxedro operaciebi saqarTvelos teritoriaze. mdgomareoba unda ganmuxtuliyo. saqarTvelos xelisuflebas, romelsac TviTonac hqonda araerTi mcdeloba Tavisi kontrolis qveS daebrunebina pankisi, daxmarebis xeli gauwoda dasavleTma. mas Semdeg, rac aSS-is iniciativiT Seiqmna antiteroristuli koalicia, gadawyda daxmarebodnen saqarTvelos, rom pankisis xeoba ar gamxdariyo axali daZabulobis kera. 2002 wels amerikam gamoyo 64 milioni dolari da saqarTveloSi daiwyo `wvrTnisa da aRWurvis~ programa. am programis mizani iyo saqarTvelos antiteroristuli samxedro Zalis Seqmna, ZiriTadi samizne pankisis xeoba iyo. 2002-2003 wels saqarTvelos xelisuflebam daibruna kontroli pankisis xeobaze. ai, ras werda amis Sesaxeb rusi Jurnalisti ana politkovskaia: `axla iq Sevidnen qarTuli Sinagani jarebis SenaerTebi da ara marto Sevidnen, aramed antiteroristuli operaciac Caatares (is marTlac Catarda) da ara marto Caatares, aramed `dacvis~ dros moaxerxes ar gaefuWebinaT urTierToba mosaxleobis im nawilTan, vinc ar iyo CarTuli kriminalSi. es is Tvisebaa, romelic did xania 16
dakarges ruseTis federalebma CeCneTSi~. gaCnda imedi, rom moixsneboda ruseTTan urTierTobaSi daZabulobis erT-erTi kera. magram miuxedavad omis dasawyisSi gakeTebuli gancxadebebisa, rom CeCneTis omi damTavrda sruli gamarjvebiT, aTi wlis merec Cans, rom es omi ar damTavrebula. is grZeldeba amboxebulTa winaaRmdegobiT. Tavisi marcxis gasamarTleblad ruseTi mudmivad, mTeli am xnis ganmavlobaSi, saqarTvelos sdebs brals, rom aq CeCen boevikebs aqvT bazebi. amrigad, am SemTxvevaSi Crdilo kavkasiis faqtori ruseTis mxridan saqarTvelos diskreditaciisa da masze zewoliTavis gamoiyeneba. `mSvidobiani kavkasia~ 90-iani wlebis Sua periodSi, rodesac pirveli CeCnuri kampania e.w. `xasaviurtis xelSekrulebiT~ dasrulda, xolo samxreT kavkasiaSi dapirispirebul Zalebs Soris droebiTi, myife balansi damyarda, kvlav gaaqtiurda idea saerTo kavkasiuri TanamSromlobisa, rasac regionSi stabilurobis safuZveli unda Seeqmna. bunebrivia, rom yvela regionuli aqtori am ideas Tavisi politikuri intaresebisa da miswrafebebis mixedviT moiazrebda. pirveli amgvari iniciativa saqarTvelos prezidentma e. SevardnaZem 1996 TebervalSi wamoayena. iniciativas `mSvidobiani kavkasia~ ewoda. igi regionSi stabilurobisa da TanamSromlobis eqvsi ZiriTad principze dafuZnebas gulisxmobda: 1. teritoriuli mTlianoba da arsebuli sazRvrebis xelSeuxebloba; 2. adamianis uflebebis dacva yvelgan da yvelaferSi; 3. satransporto da sxva komunikaciebis dacva da maTi blokirebis ardaSveba; 4. TanamSromloba bunebis dacvasa da stiqiur ubedurebaTa Sedegebis likvidaciisas; 5. eTnikuri da religiuri tolerantoba, nacionalizmisa da qsenofobiis yvela formis uaryofa; 6. yovelmxrivi mxardaWera kavkasiaSi investiciebisa da saerTaSoriso proqtebisa da maTi usafrTxoebis uzrunvelyofa. iniciativa saerTo-kavkasiur TanamSromlobaSi Crdilo kavkasiis 17
aqtiurad Cabmasac gulisxmobda. am iniciativas mxari dauWira regionisa da mezobeli saxelmwifoebis uklebliv yvela liderma. ufro metic, TurqeTis prezidentma s. demirelma kavkasiis stabilurobis Taobaze specialuri mravalmxrivi SeTanxmebis gaformebis winadadeba wamoayena, xolo azerbaijanisa da somxeTis xelmZRvanelebi kavkasiis euTos Seqmnis ideiT gamovidnen. mogvianebiT kavkasiaSi usafrTxoebisa da stabilurobis sistemis Seqmnis perspeqtiviT daintereseba aSS-m da evrokavSirmac gamoxates. ruseTis xelmZRvanelobam axali iniciativebis mimarT Tavidanve aqtiuri pozicia daikava. misi amocana sruliad cxadi iyo – saerTo-kavkasiuri TanamSromlobis moqceva moskovis qolgis qveS da am mizniT misi Semofargvla mxolod regionis Sida aqtorebiT. Tumca yvela sxva iniciativis avtori, rogorc wesi, saerTo-kavkasiur formatSi, rogorc problemebze diskusiis, ise praqtikuli TanamSromlobis monawileebad, sxva dainteresebul mxareTa (regionis mezobeli TurqeTi da irani; aseve aSS da evrokavSiri) aucilebel da aqtiur CarTvas gulisxmobda. 1996 wlis 3 ivniss ruseTis federaciis prezidentis miwveviT kislovodskSi ruseTis, azerbaijanis, saqarTvelosa da somxeTis prezidentebis, e.w. `kavkasiuri oTxeulis~ Sexvedra gaimarTa. masSi monawileobisaTvis Crdilo kavkasiis 12 respublikis, mxarisa da olqis (CeCneTis garda) xelmZRvanelebic miiwvies. Sexvedraze xeli moaweres deklaracias `kavkasiaSi erTa Soris Tanxmobis, mSvidobis, ekonomikuri da kulturuli TanamSromlobis Sesaxeb~. es iyo pirveli SemTxveva, roca saerTo-kavkasiuri problematikis Taobaze diskusiisas Crdilo kavkasielTa xmac gaisma. Sexvedra imave formatiT 1997 wels gameorda, xolo 2000 wlidan man oTxmxrivi saxelmwifoTaSorisi konsultaciebis saxe miiRo, sadac CrdilokavkasielTa warmomadgenlebi aRar miuwveviaT. marTalia, `mSvidobiani kavkasiis~ ideis da sxva momdevno iniciativaTa realizaciis saqme politikur gancxadebebs ver gascda, saerTo-kavkasiur formatSi TanamSromlobis idea 18
iyo da dResac rCeba Crdilo kavkasiis sakiTxebze ruseTisa da dainteresebuli saerTaSoriso partniorebis, maT Soris saqarTvelos, konstruqciuli TanamSromlobis platformis formirebis erT-erT ZiriTad mimarTulebad. 2008 wlis omi da CrdiloeTi kavkasia 2008 wlis e.w. `xuTdRianma omma~ da misma Sedegebma (saqarTvelos teritoriebis okupacia da afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis damoukideblobis aRiareba ruseTis mier), bunebrivia, Tavisi anarekli hpova CrdiloeT kavkasiaSic. aq or moments gamovyofdiT: pirveli _ Crdilo kavkasielTa monawileoba konfliqtSi da meore _ Tavad konfliqtisa da misi Sedegebis zegavlena ruseTis samxreTze. 2008 wels saqarTvelo samxreT oseTSi ruseTTan dapirispirebiT kvlav daupirispirda CrdiloeT kavaksias. upirveles yovlisa aRsaniSnavia, rom omis dawyebisTanave masSi monawileobdnen CrdiloeT oseTis warmomadgenlebi da ori CeCnuri qvedanayofi (`vostoki~ da `zapadi~, romlebic `grus~ formirebuli iyo). garda amisa, jer kidev omamde, or agvistos, kokoiTis gancxadebiT, man miiRo Crdilo kavkasielTagan mxardaWeris dapireba. amis Semdeg, ramdenime dReSi, Tavad cxinvalis mTavrobam ganacxada, rom mzad iyo sruli mobilizaciis gamocxadebisaTvis da aseve Crdilo kavkasielTagan moxaliseebis Sekrebis moTxovnisaTvis. mniSvnelovania, rom es dapirebebi da mowodebebi ubralo sityvebad ar darCenila da, SeiZleba iTqvas, TiTqmis mTel Crdilo kavkasiaSi xdeboda moxaliseTa Sekreba. Tumca aRsaniSnavia, rom mobilizacia ar iyo imave masStabisa, rogoric oTxmocdaaTiani wlebis dasawyisis konfliqtebisas. erT-erTi rusi Jurnalisti, ivan suxovi, miiCnevs, rom aRmsareblobiTi sxvaobis gamo Crdilokavkasieli mosaxleobisaTvis es iyo sxvaTa omi. moxaliseTa Sekreba ki, misi azriT, metyvelebs, erTi mxriv, adgilobriv politikosTa mxridan kremlis mimarT sakuTari loialobis damtkicebis survilze, xolo meore mxriv ki imaze, rom CrdiloeTi kavkasia jer kidev warmoadgens regions, sadac SeiZleba 19
Seikribos da gadaadgildes SeiaraRebulTa jgufebi, romelTa makontrolebeli organoc gaurkvevelia. garda samxedro monawileobisa, Crdilo kavkasia konfliqtSi mravali sxva mimarTulebiT iyo CarTuli. jer kidev omis dawyebamde ruseTis samxreTis TiTqmis yvela respublikaSi xdeboda evakuirebulTa miReba. evakuirebulebs omis dawyebisTanave ltolvilebi ewodaT. CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi, ra Tqma unda, pirvel rigSi, CrdiloeT oseTSi, mTeli samxedro konfrontaciis periodSi mimdinareobda daWrilebis evakuireba. Crdilo kavkasiidan xdeboda humanitaruli daxmarebis transportireba samxreT oseTSi. yabardo-balyareTidan iqna gamogzavnili specialistebi cxinvalSi eleqtrosareabilitacio samuSaoebis Casatareblad omis dasrulebis Semdeg. yovelive es kidev erTxel mowmobs, rom ruseTi ecada cxinvalis regionSi konfrontaciiT, sxva amocanebis gadawyvetasTan erTad, saqarTvelosa da Crdilo kavkasias Soris dapirispirebac gamoewvia. amasTan, agvistos omma sxva tendenciebic warmoSva. ruseTis samxreTSi, sadac Zlieria antirusuli ganwyobilebebi, bunebrivia, SeuZlebelia yofiliyo erTmniSvnelovani damokidebuleba konfliqtis mimarT. omis dawyebis win CeCneTis mosaxleobaSi saqarTvelos mxardamWeri gancxadebebi gaJRerda. aseve ruseTis winaaRmdeg moqmedebebisaken mouwodes Crdilo kavksielebs `imarat kavkazidan~, romlebmac gamoTqves mzadyofna saqarTvelos mTavrobis Txovnis SemTxvevaSi mxari daeWiraT misTvis konfliqtis mimdinareobisas. maTi gancxadebiT, samxreT oseTis mxares, Crdilo kavkasielTa monawileobis Sesaxeb gavrcelebuli informacia rusuli `propagandis~ nawili iyo. Tavis mxriv, maTi amgvari gancxadeba konfliqtSi Carevis mzadyofnasTan dakavSirebiT, jeimsTaunis fondis mkvelvaris andrei smirnovis SefasebiT, warmoadgenda survils, `imarat kavkazi~ yofiliyo aRiarebuli damoukidebel politikur Zalad da ara islamur-teroristul dajgufebad. aRsaniSnavia, rom omma gamorCeuli gamoxmaureba hpova inguSeTSi, sadac ar gamouTqvamT raime saxis TanagrZnoba 20
oseTidan evakuirebulTa mimarT da, SeiZleba iTqvas, piriqiTac moxda. rogorc `kavkazski uzeli~ iuwyeba, inguSebs omma 1992 wlis konfliqti gaaxsena CrdiloeT oseTTan. amdenad, inguSeTSi, yvela sxva Crdilokavkasiuri respublikisagan gansxvavebiT, samxreT oseTidan arc ltolvilebi miuRiaT. rogorc Cans, ganwyobilebebi sakmaod winaaRmdegobrivia, rac kidev erTxel amtkicebs, rom CrdiloeTi kavkasia Zalian rTuli regionia, iq arsebuli mravali eTnosis, maTi gansxvavebuli istoriuli gamocdilebisa da mkveTrad diferencirebuli socialuri fenebis gamo. agvistos omis zegavlena CrdiloeT kavkasiaze upirveles yovlisa, unda aRvniSnoT, rom 2008 wlis ruseT-saqarTvelos omi ar yofila, Tundac nawilobriv, raime axali procesis katalizatori. man mxolod arsebuli movlenebisa da tendenciebis kidev erTi damatebiTi muxtis wyaros funqcia Seasrula. is, rom afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis aRiarebas ar gamouwvevia zvaviseburi reaqcia Crdilo kavkasiaSi damoukideblobis aRiarebis moTxovniT, kidev erTxel aCvenebs, rom separatistuli ideebi regionSi naklebad aqtualuria. rogorc Cans, am momentis gaTvaliswinebamac Seuwyo xeli imas, rom ruseTis xelisuflebam afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis aRiarebis nabiji ase Tamamad gadadga. miuxedvad imisa, rom agvistos omis Semdeg garkveuli gaaqtiureba SeimCneoda inguSeTSi, mainc rTulia am procesis uSualod dakavSireba `xuTdRian omTan~. kidev erTi mniSvnelovani reaqcia, romelic gamoiwvia am axali saxelmwifoebis gaCenam regionSi, dakavSirebulia maTTvis ekonomikuri daxmarebis gawevasTan. rogorc erTi, ise meore regioni mTlianad ruseTidan gamoyofili dotaciebis xarjze arsebobs. amitom ruseTSi isedac arsebul ukmayofilebas daemata gancda, rom saxelmwifos kidev ori Savi xvreli gauCnda. ruseTSi Crdilo kavkasiisadmi Camoyalibebuli da frTxili saxelmwifo politikis ararseboba aisaxa im faqtSic, 21
rom rusul mediaSi im periodSi araerTxel gaiJRera frazam `ruseTi mxars uWers erTmorwmune osebs~ (aravis gaxsenebia qarTvelebis erTmorwmuneoba), rac, rogorc a. malaSenko miiCnevs, yuradRebis miRma ar darCeniaT Crdilokavkasiel muslimebs. rogor aRiqmeba Crdilo kavkasia ruseTSi? ruseTis xelisufleba Crdilo kavkasias ganixilavs, rogorc ruseTis federaciis ganuyofel nawils, Tumca, amavdroulad, es regioni, obieqturad, misi erovnuli interesebisaTvis erT-erTi umTavres safrTxes warmoadgens. aqve unda aRiniSnos, Tu rogor xdeba Crdilo kavkasiis xatis eqspluatireba ruseTis xelisuflebis mier. putinis prezidentobisas Crdilo kavkasias warmosaxaven, rogorc ruseTis `sust wertils~, romlis damuxtvac mudmivad xdeba qveynis garedan (konkretuli qveynebi pirdapir TiTqmis ar saxeldeboda, Tumca cdilobdnen warmoeCinaT, rom separatizmisa da religiuri radikalizmis safuZveli qveynis SigniT ar arsebobs da maTi Tavs moxveva garedan xdeboda). Sexedulebebi garkveulwilad Seicvala 2009 wlidan, rodesac 9 ivniss prezidentma d. medvedevma mahaCyalaSi regionSi umTavres sirTuled `sistemuri problemebi~ daasaxela: klanuroba, korufcia, umuSevroba, siRatake da sxv. amdenad, dRes ruseTis xelisufleba Crdilo kavkasias ganixilavs, rogorc ganapira regions, romelic CaZirulia zRvarsgadasul korufciaSi, klanurobaSi da a.S. miuxedavad imisa, rom regionul doneze yvela Cinovniki, pirveli pirebis CaTvliT, centridan iniSneba, kremli maqsimalurad cdilobs Tavi aaridos pasuxismgeblobas regionis problemebze. aRsaniSnavia, rom kremlis amgvari midgoma upirispirebs Crdilo kavkasielebs ruseTis danarCen mosaxleobas. gamodis, rom kavkasielebi arian korumpirebuli da surT icxovron danarCeni ruseTi xarjze, romelic, Tavis mxriv, itanjeba maTi ukanonobiT maSin, roca mraval kanondarRvevas Tavad centri ar aRkveTavs. 22
rac Seexeba Tavad regions, rusi eqspertebis azriT, yvela respublika, maT Soris iq moqmedi opozicia da samoqalaqo sazogadoebac, Crdilo kavkasias ruseTis nawilad aRiqvams. daRestanSi TiTqmis oficialur lozungad aris gavrcelebuli poet rasul gamzaTovis sityvebi: `daRestani arasodes ar Sesula ruseTSi Tavisi nebiT da Tavisi nebiT iqidan ar gamova~. eqspertTa azriT, erTaderTi jgufi, romelic rusul realobas ewinaaRmdegeba, aris radikalislamistTa dajgufeba da maTi raodenoba sul ufro metad izrdeba. regionis miRma rusuli sazogadoebis ganwyoba Crdilo kavkasiisadmi sakmaod frTxilia, rac minimum 3 faqtoriT aris gamowveuli: pirveli – CrdiloeT kavkasiis arastabiluroba da is, Tu ra reaqciaa masze mediasa da xelisuflebaSi, rac iwvevs iracionalur SiSs sazogadoebaSi; meore – tendenciebi regionis eTnikur struqturaSi, romlTa gamoc rusul sazogadoebas uWirs aRiqvas Crd. kavkasia `sakuTar regionad~; mesame – sazogadoebis urwmunoeba, rom xelisuflebas Seswevs unari Secvalos regionSi viTareba. mag., 2010 wlis setemberSi, levada-centris mier Catarebuli gamokiTxvis mixedviT, gamokiTxulTa mxolod 12 procents sjera, rom ruseTis xelisufleba uaxloes momavalSi SeZlebs problemebis mogvarebas; 27 procenti miiCnevs, rom saerTod SuZlebelia raimes Secvla; 38 procenti _ rom regulirebas mravali weli dasWirdeba, maT Soris 65 procenti mdgomareobas `ukiduresad daZabulad~ afasebs. moraluri dilema sainteresoa da amaze eqspertebic Tanxmdebian, rom kremlisaTvis problema dRes moraluri xasiaTisac aris. anu kiTxvaze, Tu ratom ar daanebebs ruseTi CrdiloeT kavkasias Tavs da ar datovebs regions, erT-erTi pasuxi aseTia, rom dReisaTvis ruseTma ukan dasaxevi yvela gza moiWra, maT Soris _ moraluric, auries iq yvelaferi da axla Seatovon problemebs, romlebmac SesaZloa gaanadguros regioni?!
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daskvna eqspertTa azriT, CrdiloeTi kavkasia ver gaxda ruseTis bunebrivi nawili. mas xSirad `Sida sazRvargareTsac~ uwodeben. ruseTma ver SeZlo am regionis integrireba sakuTar saxelmwifoebriv sxeulSi. amis mizezia am regionsa da ruseTs Soris realurad arsebuli civilizaciuri gansxvaveba, ris gadalaxvasac xels uSlis samoqalaqo sazogadoebis sisuste regionSi, misi CamorCena ekonomikuri da socialuri ganviTarebis TvalsazrisiT, religiuri eqstremizmis mzardi faqtori. regionSi aseve umwvavesia mentaluri modernizaciis problema, rac aisaxeba Sida eTnikur WidilSi, Sedegad _ Sida sazRvrebis dauregulireblobaSi, ruseTisadmi regionis SeurigeblobaSi. regionis mimarT centris araefeqturi politikis erTerTi mizezi aseve kulturul-mentaluria. arc ruseTisaTvis gaxda Crdilo kavkasia misi organuli Semadgeneli nawili. rusebs, ZiriTadad, ara aqvT Tanamoqalaqeeobis gancda Crdilo kavkasielebis mimarT. moskovis metros gaxmaurebuli teraqtis dros aravis, dawyebuli prezident medvedevidan, ar gamouTqvams wuxili, rom 18 wlis axalgazrda qalebi, romlebmac Tavi aifeTqes, aseve ruseTis moqalaqeebi iyvnen.
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