ეკონომიკური ზრდის შენელება საქართველოში: პოლიტეკონომიური ასპექტი

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÓÔÒÀÔÄÂÉÉÓÀ ÃÀ ÓÀÄÒÈÀÛÏÒÉÓÏ ÖÒÈÉÄÒÈÏÁÀÈÀ ÊÅËÄÅÉÓ ×ÏÍÃÉ

GEORGIAN FOUNDATION FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

eqspertis azri

merab kakulia

ekonomikuri zrdis Seneleba saqarTveloSi: politekonomiuri aspeqti

9 2013

publikacia daibeWda amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis saelCos finansuri mxardaWeriT.

redaqtori:

rusudan margiSvili

teqnikuri redaqtori:

artem meliq-nubarovi

saavtoro uflebebi daculia da ekuTvnis saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis fonds. werilobiTi nebarTvis gareSe wignis arc erTi nawili ar SeiZleba gadaibeWdos nebismieri, maT Soris, eleqtronuli an meqanikuri formiT. Š saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa kvlevis fondi 2013 weli

ISSN 1512-4835 ISBN 978-9941-0-5824-0

ekonomikuri zrdis tempis vardna

gasuli 2012 wlis pirvel sam kvartalSi saqarTvelos ekonomika sakmaod dinamikurad viTardeboda: realuri mTliani Sida produqtis (GDP-is) wliuri zrdis tempma aRniSnul periodSi saSualod 7,5% Seadgina. maRali ekonomikuri aqtiurobiT gamoirCeoda mSeneblobis, gadamamuSavebeli mrewvelobis, safinanso saqmianobis, sastumroebisa da restornebis seqtorebi.1 2012 wlis mesame kvartlidan daiwyo ekonomikuri aqtiurobis Seneleba, rac wlis bolos realuri GDP-is zrdis tempis mkveTr vardnaSi gadaizarda. meoTxe kvartalSi es maCvenebeli wliur gamosaxulebaSi 2,8%-mde Semcirda. im seqtorebidan, sadac wlis pirvel sam kvartalSi maRali ekonomikuri aqtiuroba SeiniSneboda, zrdis tempebi gansakuTrebiT daeca gadamamuSavebel mrewvelobasa da mSeneblobaSi.2 realuri GDP-is zrdis tempis vardna 2013 wlis pirvel kvartalSi kidev ufro gaRrmavda. saqstatis winaswari SefasebiT, es maCvenebeli wliur gamosaxulebaSi ianvridan moyolebuli Tanmimdevrulad ecemoda da martSi mxolod 0,4% Seadgina.3 mTlianobaSi, realuri GDP-is zrdis tempi pirvel kvartalSi, wina wlis Sesabamis periodTan SedarebiT, bolo sami wlis ganmavlobaSi yvelaze dabal niSnulze _ 2,4%-ze davida. wliuri zrdis tempebis mkveTri dacema gamoikveTa gadamamuSavebel mrewvelobaSi, sastumroebisa da restornebis seqtorsa da safinanso saqmianobis sferoSi, xolo mSeneblobaSi, energetikasa da transportSi aRiniSna kleba.4 saqstatis winaswari SefasebiT, 2013 wlis aprilSi realuri GDP-is zrdis maCvenebeli mniSvnelovnad, 4,5%-mde, gaizarda, ramac ekonomikuri dinamikis gaumjobesebis garkveuli imedi gaaCina; Tumca, maisSi igive maCvenebeli kvlav mkveTrad _ nulovan donemde _ daeca.5

ram ganapiroba ekonomikuri zrdis Seneleba?

ekonomikuri zrdis Seneleba saqarTveloSi, rogorc zemoT aRvniSneT, 2012 wlis mesame kvartlidan daiwyo, maSin, 3

rodesac winasaarCevno kampania gadamwyvet fazaSi Sevida. es procesi kidev ufro gaRrmavda oqtombris saparlamento arCevnebSi mmarTveli partiis _ erTiani nacionaluri moZraobis _ damarcxebisa da xelisuflebaSi axali mTavrobis mosvlis Semdeg. amitom gasakviri ar aris, rom ekonomikuri aqtiurobis Senelebas saqarTveloSi saerTaSoriso finansuri organizaciebi da sareitingo saagentoebi metwilad winasaarCevno kampaniasa da xelisuflebis cvlilebas ukavSireben.6 miuxedavad amisa, dasaxelebuli politikuri movlenebis roli GDP-is zrdis tempebis dacemaSi jer kidev bolomde ar aris garkveuli da damatebiT Seswavlas saWiroebs imisaTvis, raTa daisaxos ekonomikuri dinamikis gaumjobesebis gzebi. ekonomikur zrdaze winasaarCevno kampaniisa da xelisuflebis cvlilebis gavlenis Sefasebamde mizanSewonilad migvaCnia im makroekonomikuri mizezebis mokle mimoxilva, romelTac uSualod ganapirobes ekonomikuri aqtiurobis Seneleba saqarTveloSi.

investiciebis Semcireba

ekonomikuri zrdis tempebis dacema mniSvnelovanwilad gamoiwvia pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebis arsebiTma klebam, romelTa jamuri moculoba bolo sam kvartalSi (2012 wlis mesame, meoTxe da 2013 wlis pirvel kvartlebSi), 20112012 wlebis Sesabamis periodTan SedarebiT, 35%-iT daeca. aRsaniSnavia, rom am periodSi pirdapiri investiciebi metnaklebad yvela ZiriTad dargSi Semcirda.7 rogorc Cans, ucxoelma investorebma sakmaod mZafrad aRiqves saparlamento arCevnebTan da xelisuflebis cvlilebasTan dakavSirebuli gaurkvevloba, ramac gamoxatuleba hpova qcevis modelSi, romelsac `moicade da daakvirdi~ (“wait-and-see�) ewodeba. axali mTavrobis mosvlam xelisuflebaSi adgilobrivi investorebis aqtiurobac Seasusta, radganac arCevnebis Semdeg kardinalurad Seicvala mTavrobis midgoma qarTuli biznesis mimarT,* romelsac adre elitur da politikur ko* politikur Soks, romelic arCevnebis Semdeg adgilobrivma bizneselitam miiRo, qvemoT sagangebod SevexebiT. 4

rufciaze dafuZnebuli `TamaSis wesebi~ gansazRvravdnen.8 sainvesticio aqtiurobis Semcirebaze metyvelebs is, rom mniSvnelovnad iklo sainvesticio saqonlis importis moculobam.9 investiciebis Semcireba naTlad aisaxa erovnul angariSebSi: mTliani kapitalis formirebis wliuri zrdis tempi 2012 wlis mesame kvartalSi mkveTrad daeca, meoTxe kvartalSi misi moculoba wina wlis Sesabamis periodTan SedarebiT 2%-iT, xolo 2013 pirvel kvartalSi TiTqmis 16%-iT Semcirda.10

infrastruqturuli proeqtebis Seyovneba

pirdapir ucxour investiciebTan erTad saqarTveloSi ekonomikuri zrdis erT-erT gadamwyvet faqtors bolo wlebSi biujetis infrastruqturuli xarjebi warmoadgenda. miuxedavad fiskaluri konsolidaciis politikisa, romelsac mTavroba 2012 wels atarebda, infrastruqturuli proeqtebis dafinansebisaTvis msxvili asignebebi gamoiyofoda, ramac mniSvnelovani roli iTamaSa wlis pirvel sam kvartalSi GDP-is zrdis maRali tempebis SenarCunebaSi. 2012 wlis meoTxe da 2013 wlis pirvel kvartalSi aRniSnuli xarjebis dafinanseba Seyovnda. amis erT-erTi ZiriTadi mizezi iyo axali mTavrobis mier satendero procedurebis gadasinjva, rac adrindeli tenderebis arakonkurentulobiTa da maTSi gamarjvebuli kompaniebis saqmianobaSi gamovlenili seriozuli darRvevebiT iyo ganpirobebuli.11 biujetis infrastruqturuli xarjebis Seferxebam, cxadia, xeli Seuwyo ekonomikuri aqtiurobis Sesustebas.

moTxovnis Sesusteba

investiciebis klebam da infrastruqturuli proeqtebis Seyovnebam, uaryofiTad imoqmeda erTobliv moTxovnaze. amas isic daemata, rom mniSvnelovnad Semcirda saxelmwifos mier saqonelsa da momsaxurebaze gaweuli xarjebi: 2013 wlis pirvel kvartalSi maTi moculoba wina wlis Sesabamis periodTan SedarebiT 49,6%-iT Semcirda.12 saxelm5

wifo moxmarebis klebis tendencia 2013 wlis meore kvartalSic gagrZelda. ekonomikuri zrdis Senelebis mniSvnelovan faqtors warmoadgens samomxmareblo moTxovnis Sesusteba. miuxedavad imisa, rom momxmareblis ndobis indeqsi uSualod saparlamento arCevnebis Semdeg (2012 wlis oqtomber-noemberSi) mkveTrad gaizarda, wlis bolos igi aseve mkveTrad daeca. ianvar-TebervalSi momxmareblis ganwyoba kvlav gaumjobesda, Tumca martSi aRniSnuli indeqsi isev davarda.13 zemoTqmuli imaze miuTiTebs, rom qarTvel momxmarebels saparlamento arCevnebis Semdeg naklebad optimisturi ganwyoba Camouyalibda, rac moxmarebisken mis SedarebiT sust midrekilebaSi gamovlinda. samomxmareblo moTxovnis Semcirebas nawilobriv sesxebis statistikac adasturebs. mkveTrad daeca Sinameurneobebze komerciuli bankebis mier gacemuli sesxebis saerTo moculobis wliuri zrdis tempi: 2013 wlis pirvel kvartalSi man saSualod 17% Seadgina, maSin, rodesac wina wlis Sesabamis periodSi es maCvenebeli 36%-s aRwevda.14 moTxovnis da, kerZod, samomxmareblo moTxovnis klebaze miuTiTebs agreTve importis Semcireba, romelic mniSvnelovanwilad dakavSirebulia sawvavisa da sursaTis importis klebasTan. 2012 wlis noembridan moyolebuli importis moculoba wliuri gamosaxulebiT yovelTviurad mcirdeba. importis wliurma klebam Tavis piks 2013 wlis martSi miaRwia, rodesac man TiTqmis 10% Seadgina.15

SinameurneobaTa moxmarebisken midrekilebis Sesustebaze metyvelebs agreTve fizikuri pirebis depozitebis zrdis tendenciac. saparlamento arCevnebamde misi tempi mcirdeboda da seqtemberSi wliuri 7% Seadgina. Semdeg am tipis depozitebis formireba daCqarda: 2013 wlis pirvel kvartalSi maTi zrdis tempma wliuri gamosaxulebiT saSualod 18% Seadgina.16

politikuri riskebis gaZliereba

yvela is makroekonomikuri mizezi, romelmac uSualod ganapiroba GDP-is zrdis tempebis dacema saqarTveloSi, me6

tad Tu naklebad saparlamento arCevnebTan da xelisuflebis cvlilebasTanaa dakavSirebuli, Tumca am movlenebTan asocirebuli politikuri riskebis gavlena ekonomikur dinamikaze araerTgvarovania. qvemoT mocemulia ZiriTadi politikuri riskebis dekompozicia, romelic saSualebas gvaZlevs ukeT davinaxoT maTi zemoqmedeba ekonomikuri zrdis Senelebaze.

politikuri gaurkvevloba

politikur gaurkvevlobaSi igulisxmeba Sidapolitikuri arastabilurobis gancda. saqarTvelos konteqstSi amas saprezidento respublikaSi saparlamento umravlesobis mier formirebuli mTavrobis prezidentTan SeuTavsebloba iwvevs, rac vera da ver gadawona orive mxaris mier araerTxel deklarirebulma miswrafebam `koabitaciisken~. politikuri arastabilurobis risks investorebi ufro mwvaved aRiqvamdnen manam, sanam moqmed prezidents SeeZlo parlamentis daTxovnis SemTxvevaSi axal saparlamento arCevnebamde mTavrobis sakuTari Sexedulebisamebr dakompleqteba. mas Semdeg, rac sakonstitucio cvlilebebis Sedegad prezidents es ufleba CamoerTva (2013 wlis marti), politikuri gaurkvevloba, rogorc aseTi, mniSvnelovnad ganeitralda. miuxedavad amisa, prezidenti sakmaod seriozul diskomforts uqmnis axal mTavrobas, rasac adasturebs Tundac is, rom mravalricxovani sazRvargareTuli vizitis dros igi yvelanairad cdilobs moaxdinos axali xelisuflebis diskreditacia da Seasustos mis mimarT ndoba. ucxoeli investorebi arc imas aRiqvamen erTgvarovnad, roca axali mTavrobis warmomadgenlebi wina xelisuflebis mier ganxorcielebul nebismier reformas ukiduresad negatiurad afaseben.17

biznesis politikuri Soki

axalma mTavrobam myisierad uaryo wina xelisuflebis biznesTan urTierTobis uaRresad mankieri praqtika _ sxvadasxva dargis wamyvani qarTuli kompaniebis mniSvnelovani 7

nawili, romelic an wina xelisuflebis maRali eSelonebis warmomadgenelTa axlo naTesavebis, an megobrebis mier kontroldeboda,18 an sistematurad asrulebda yofili xelisuflebis araformalur `davalebebs~, wlebis manZilze mniSvnelovani upiratesobebiT sargeblobda: `imarjvebda~ saprivatizacio auqcionebSi, `igebda~ saxelmwifo Sesyidvebis tenderebs, hqonda faqtobrivi fiskaluri Seuvaloba, inarCunebda dominirebul mdgomareobas bazarze da a.S.19 garda amisa, isini aqtiurad monawileobdnen xelisuflebis mier politikurad `arakeTilsaimedo~ biznesmenebis eqspropriaciaSi, rac maTTvis CamorTmeuli aqtivebis xelSi CagdebaSi gamoixateboda. arCevnebis Semdeg aseTi kompaniebis mdgomareoba mkveTrad Seicvala: axali mTavrobis pirobebSi maT myisierad dakarges yvela privilegia; amasTan, daiwyo elitur da politikur korufciaSi CarTuli yofili maRalCinosnebis sisxlissamarTlebrivi devna, romlebic araerT biznesstruqturas mfarvelobdnen.20 yovelive es Sokismomgvreli aRmoCnda aRniSnuli kompaniebisTvis, ramac, cxadia, uaryofiTad imoqmeda maT ekonomikur aqtiurobaze. amgvari Sokis efeqtis raodenobrivi Sefaseba erTob rTulia da calke kvlevas saWiroebs, miuxedavad amisa, biznesseqtoris oficialuri statistika garkveul warmodgenas mainc gviqmnis mis masStabze. sawarmoTa brunva 2013 wlis pirvel kvartalSi, wina wlis Sesabamis periodTan SedarebiT, 6%-iT gaizarda maSin, rodesac 2012 wlis pirvel kvartalSi, wina wlis Sesabamis periodTan SedarebiT, sawarmoTa brunvis matebis tempi 42%-s aWarbebda. niSandoblivia, rom msxvili kompaniebis brunvebis zrdis tempi imave periodSi TiTqmis 10-jer Semcirda, saSualo kompaniebisa _ 5-jer, xolo wvrili sawarmoebisa _ 4-jer.21 rogorc Cans, xelisuflebis cvlileba yvelaze metad mainc msxvil kompaniebze aisaxa.

regulirebis gaurkvevloba

mizanSewonilia ganvasxvavoT `politikuri gaurkvevloba~ da `politikis gaurkvevloba~ (Policy Uncertainty).22 politikis gaurkvevlobis gamovlenis ZiriTadi formaa reguli8

rebis gaurkvevloba (Regulatory Uncertainty), rac regulirebis arsebul sistemaSi investorTaTvis araxelsayreli cvlilebebis SesaZleblobas gulisxmobs. msoflio bankis jgufSi Semavali mravalmxrivi investiciebis saagentos (MIGA) bolo kvlevis mixedviT, ganviTarebad qveynebSi arsebul politikur riskebs Soris investorebi yvelaze mgrZnobiare swored regulirebis gaurkvevlobis mimarT arian.23 amitom gasakviri ar aris, rom saerTaSoriso damkvirveblebis nawili ucxoeli investorebis sifrTxiles saqarTvelos mimarT winasaarCevno periodSi da gansakuTrebiT arCevnebis Semdeg mniSvnelovanwilad maregulirebeli CarCos SesaZlo cvlilebebs ukavSireben.

regulirebis gaurkvevlobis TvalsaCino magaliTad sareitingo saagento Fitch-is regionuli direqtori Carlz sevili Sromis kodeqsis mTavrobis mier inicirebul cvlilebebs miiCnevs.24 am mosazrebas ar iziarebs EBRD-is yofili regionuli direqtori kavkasiaSi, moldovasa da belorusSi pol-anri forestie, romelic fiqrobs, rom, piriqiT, cvlilebebi Sromis kodeqsSi ufro mimzidvels gaxdis saqarTvelos sainvesticio klimats.25 Cveni azriT, Sromis kodeqsSi Sesatani cvlilebebis Tavdapirveli varianti marTlac araxelsayreli iyo investorebisTvis, rasac adasturebs PMC-is mier ganxorcielebuli kvleva,26 Tumca saqme mxolod Sromis kodeqsis cvlilebaSi ar aris. regulirebis gaurkvevlobis problema ufro farTo konteqstSi unda ganvixiloT. rogorc cnobilia, prezident mixeil saakaSvilis xelisuflebis gancxadebuli ekonomikuri politika libertarianul doqtrinas eyrdnoboda da Tavisufali bazris uzenaesobis da `minimaluri mTavrobis~ principebs qadagebda, magram realobaSi arc mmarTvelobis avtoritarul stils erideboda, arc sakuTrebis uflebis xelyofas da arc saxelmwifos uxeS Carevas ekonomikaSi.27 miuxedavd amisa, wina mTavrobam komunikaciis efeqtiani strategiis meSveobiT SeZlo saerTaSoriso arenaze reformatoris imijis damkvidreba. am fonze, investorebsa da donorebTan dakavSirebul gavlenian wreebSi Caisaxa eWvi imis Sesaxeb, rom axali mmarTveli koalicia, romelic wlebis manZilze saakaSvilis reJimis Seurigebel 9

opoziciaSi myofi, ideologiuri TvalsazrisiT sakmaod gansxvavebuli Zalebisgan dakompleqtda, gamoavlens politikur nebas im pozitivis (maTi azriT) SenarCunebisa da ganviTarebisaTvis, rac memkvidreobiT miiRo. samwuxarod, axalma mTavrobam jerjerobiT ver SeZlo komunikaciis efeqtiani meqanizmis SemuSaveba.28 miuxedavad amisa, saqarTvelos ekonomikaSi kargad Caxeduli ucxoeli eqspertebi miiCneven, rom biznesklimati qveyanaSi ar gauaresebula da, piriqiT, ukeTesobisken icvleba.29 regulirebis gaurkvevlobas xels uwyobs is, rom mTavroba zogjer naadrev gancxadebebs akeTebs regulirebis sistemaSi cvlilebebis Sesaxeb, maSin, rodesac detalebi jer kidev bolomde ar aris garkveuli an politikurad SeTanxmebuli mmarTvel koaliciaSi. ase moxda Sromis kodeqsis SemTxvevaSic, rasac mohyva dainteresebul mxareebTan rTuli da gaWianurebuli diskusiebi.30 imavdroulad, mTavrobis gavlenianma wevrebma am kanonis cvlilebebis parlamentSi wardgenili Tavdapirveli variantis mimarT arsebiTad gansxvavebuli Sexedulebebi gamoTqves. saboloo jamSi miRebul iqna Sromis kodeqsis cvlilebebis kompromisuli, ufro dabalansebuli, varianti. regulirebis gaurkvevlobis kidev erTi magaliTia axali kanonproeqti Tavisufali vaWrobisa da konkurenciis Sesaxeb, romelic jer kidev 2012 wlis bolos momzadda da araerTxel iqna ganxiluli eqsprtebis mier, magram misi miReba ukve 7 Tvea Wianurdeba.31 amgvari magaliTebi xels uwyobs investorTa Soris maregulirebeli CarCos arastabilurobis gancdis arsebobas. zogierTi maTgani ar gamoricxavs, rom SesaZloa sxva sakanonmdeblo aqtebSic, maT Soris sagadasaxado kodeqsSi, Sevides cvlilebi, rac araxelsayreli iqneba investorebisTvis.32

instituciuri gaurkvevloba

politikis gaurkvevloba saqarTveloSi investiciebis xelSewyobis instituciur CarCosac Seexo. arCevnebamde cota xniT adre (2012 wlis ivlisi) qveyanaSi investiciebis 10

(rogorc ucxouri, ise Siga) xelSewyobis oriarusiani sistema Seiqmna, romelic Sedgeba erovnuli sainvesticio saagentosa da saxelmwifos mier Seqmnili saaqcio sazogadoebisagan, romelsac `sapartnioro fondi~ ewoda. pirveli warmoadgens e.w. `front ofiss~ (Front office), rac niSnavs, rom yvela investors SeuZlia mimarTos erovnul sainvesticio saagentos, romelic maT Sesabamis daxmarebas aRmouCens; xolo Tu sainvesticio proeqti moiTxovs Tanadafinansebas, sakiTxi gansaxilvelad gadaecema sapartnioro fonds.33 xelisuflebaSi mosvlisTanave axalma mTavrobam sami axali sainvesticio fondis Seqmna daaanonsa; esenia: suverenuli fondi, romelic sapartnioro fondis bazaze Camoyalibdeba; soflis meurneobis ganviTarebis fondi da Tanainvestirebis kerZo fondi. suverenuli fondi, arsebuli informaciiT, Seqmnis procesSia, Tumca raime sakanonmdeblo aqtis an kanonis proeqti misi statusisa da funqcionirebis wesis, agreTve erovnul sainvesticio saagentosTan misi mimarTebis Sesaxeb dReisaTvis cnobili ar aris. viciT mxolod, rom suverenul fondi `Tavs mouyris saxelmwifo aqtivebs da ganaxorcielebs strategiul proeqtebs~, ikisrebs `saerTaSoriso diversifikaciis funqcias~ da ganaxorcielebs `axalgazrduli (inovaciuri) proeqtebis~ mxardaWeras da `sxva momavali fondebis~ marTvas.34 soflisa da soflis meurneobis ganviTarebis fondi jer kidev gasuli wlis bolos Seiqmna da misi egidiT ukve ori proeqti xorcieldeba (`mciremiwian fermerTa sagazafxulo samuSaoebis xelSewyobis~ da `SeRavaTiani agrokreditis~ proeqtebi), Tumca am fondis iuridiuli statusi da dafinansebis wyaroebi bolomde naTeli ar aris da garkveul kiTxvebs badebs.35 rac Seexeba Tanainvestirebis kerZo fonds, igi jer ar moqmedebs, xolo informacia mis Sesaxeb imdenad mwiria, rom sagnobriv warmodgenas ar iZleva am fondis funqcionirebis meqanizmze. yovelive zemoTqmuli warmoSobs instituciur gaurkvevlobas, razedac araerTxel gamaxvilda yuradRe11

ba rogorc saerTaSoriso finansuri organizaciebis, ise calkeuli eqspertebisa da mimomxilvelebis mxridan.36 sainvesticio politikis amgvari gaurkvevloba xels ar uwyobs investorebis ndobis ganmtkicebas.

investorebTan SeTanxmebebis gadasinjva

politikis gaurkvevlobis erT-erT formad SeiZleba ganvixiloT investorebTan wina mTavrobis droindeli SeTanxmebebis darRvevis riski (“Breach of Contract�), romlis mimarT, MIGA-s zemoT dasaxelebuli kvlevis mixedviT, ganviTarebadi qveynebis ucxoeli investorebi gansakuTrebiT mgrZnobiare arian (regulirebis gaurkvevlobis Semdeg).37 samwuxarod, bolo wlebSi saqarTveloSi ganxorcielebul yvela met-naklebad msxvil ucxour investicias Tan axlda gasaidumloebuli, zogierT SemTxvevaSi, araformaluri SeTanxmeba investorTan, romliTac saqarTvelos xelisufleba mis sasargeblod garkveul valdebulebebs iRebda. es valdebulebebi ucxoel investors, moqmedi sainvesticio reJimiT gaTvaliswinebuli SeRavaTebis garda, damatebiTi sargeblis miRebis saSualebas aZlevda. magaliTad, energetikuli kompaniebis mier ganxorcielebuli investiciebis swrafi ukugebis uzrunvelyofis mizniT mniSvnelovnad izrdeboda Sesabamisi tarifebi.38 xelisuflebaSi axali mTavrobis mosvlis Semdeg dadga sakiTxi amgvari valdebulebebis gadasinjvis Sesaxeb, ramac, rasakvirvelia, moqmedi ucxouri kompaniebis ukmayofileba gamoiwvia.

ekonomikuri zrdis daCqarebisTvis

ekonomikuri aqtiurobis arsebiTi Senelebis fonze eWvqveS dadga 2013 wels GDP-is zrdis tempis adrindeli prognozebi, romlebic saerTaSoriso finansurma organizaciebma da sareitingo saagentoebma gaakeTes. rekonstruqciisa da ganviTarebis evropulma bankma (EBRD) aRniSnuli prognozi karga xania 5%-dan 3%-mde daswia,39 saerTaSoriso savaluto fondma _ 6%-dan 4%-mde,40 xolo sareitingo kompania Fitch-ma 12

_ 5,5%-dan 3%-mde.41 saqarTvelos mTavroba realuri GDP-is zrdis oficialuri prognozis (6%) gadaxedvas ar Cqarobs, Tumca ekonomikuri ganviTarebisa da finansTa ministrebma ganacxades, rom aRniSnuli prognozi ukve ararealisturia.42 SeiZleba iTqvas, rom wlis meore kvartalSi ekonomikuri zrdis mniSvnelovnad daCqarebis imedi aRar unda gvqondes, rasac Tundac is faqti adasturebs, rom 2013 wlis ianvar-maisSi GDPis saSualo realurma zrdam, saqstatis winaswari SefasebiT, mxolod 2,3% Seadgina.43 aqedan gamomdinare, naklebad savaraudoa, rom wlis darCenil periodSi (mesame da meoTxe kvartalSi) moxerxdes GDP-is zrdis iseTi maRali tempebis miRweva, romelic wliur zrdas Tundac 5%-is doneze uzrunvelyofs. sagulisxmoa, rom ivlisSi erovnulma bankma 2013 wels ekonomikuri zrdis prognozi 6-dan 4%-mde Seamcira.44 amitom ajobebs, Tu mTavroba droulad gadaxedavs oficialur prognozs da Sesabamis koreqtivebs Seitans qveynis biujetSi. am etapze mTavrobis mTavari amocanaa ar dauSvas ekonomikuri zrdis Senelebis gadazrda recesiaSi, risi realuri safrTxec ukve arsebobs. mocemuli amocanis gadawyveta gardamavali periodis (xelisuflebis gadacema) ZiriTadi uaryofiTi ekonomikuri efeqtebis SedarebiT mokle droSi ganeitralebas moiTxovs. am TvalsazrisiT, Cveni azriT, sami ram aris gansakuTrebiT mniSvnelovani: investorebis (maT Soris adgilobrivis) ndobis aRdgena, biznesis depolitizeba da dekriminalizeba da ekonomikis fiskaluri stimulirebis gaZliereba.

investorTa ndobis aRdgena

investorebis ndobis aRdgena arsebiTad maTi qcevis modelis _ `moicade da daakvirdi~ _ Secvlas gulisxmobs, risTvisac saWiroa, erTi mxriv, politikuri gaurkvevlobis, xolo, meore mxriv, politikis gaurkvevlobis gadalaxva. politikuri gaurkvevloba TandaTan neitraldeba, rac samoqalqo daZabulobisa da politikuri arastabiluro13

bis riskis klebaSi gamoixateba. axal mTavrobas da parlaments qveynis moqalaqeTa umravlesobis ndobis didi krediti aqvT, rasac Zveli xelisuflebis warmomadgenelTa mier Cadenil danaSaulebriv qmedebaTa sistematuri gamovlenis fonze realuri opoziciis (yofili mmarTveli partiis) dasustebac uwyobs xels. miuxedavad amisa, qveynis farglebs gareT wina mTavrobis maRalCinosanTa winaaRmdeg sisxlissamarTlebriv devnaSi zogjer SerCeviTi marTlmsajulebis aCrdils da saqarTvelos `ukrainizaciis~ safrTxes xedaven.45 aqedan gamomdinare, axal mTavrobas esaWiroeba gamarTuli komunikacia, raTa es eWvebi gaaqarwylos. aucilebelia ucxoel investorebsa da donorebs kargad ganemartoT, rom 2013 wlis oqtombris saprezidento arCevnebis Semdeg qveyanaSi sakonstitucio modeli icvleba da axali prezidentis arCeva, vinc ar unda iyos igi, qveynis aRmasrulebeli xelisuflebis politikaze did gavlenas ver moaxdens. aqve unda aRiniSnos, rom moqmedi premier-ministris gancxadeba saprezidento arCevnebis Semdeg maleve politikidan wasvlis Sesaxeb46 naklebad waadgeba investorTa ndobis aRdgenas, radganac politikuri stabilurobis garantad saqarTveloSi am etapze swored premier-ministris figura aRiqmeba. politikis gaurkvevlobis ganeitraleba, uwinares yovlisa, axali mTavrobis faseulobaTa, strategiuli miznebis da maTi miRwevis gzebis naTlad Camoyalibebas da saerTaSoriso doneze maT warmoCenas gulisxmobs. miuxedavad imisa, rom samTavrobo programaSi `Zlieri, demokratiuli, erTiani saqarTvelosTvis~47 TiTqos kargad Cans axali mTavrobis prioritetebi, dokuments, misi formatidan gamomdinare, aklia strategiuli xedva da sistemuroba; amasTan, samTavrobo programaSi pirdapir aris miTiTebuli, rom saxelmwifom `unda gansazRvros ganviTarebis strategia umTavresi miznebisa da Sesabamisi indikatorebis doneze; ganviTarebis strategiis farglebSi ganisazRvreba yvela is funqcia, romelTa arseboba aucilebelia stabiluri ganviTarebisa da sazogadoebrivi keTildReobisaTvis~. amgvari strategiis SemuSaveba gaWianurda, rac xels uSlis ucxoel investorebsa 14

da donorebs saTanadod aRiqvan saqarTvelos mTavrobis iniciativebi kanonmdeblobis cvlilebebTan dakavSirebiT. amdenad, investorTa ndobis aRsadgenad gadaudebel amocanas warmoadgens ganviTarebis saSualovadiani (2020 wlis CaTvliT) strategiis SemuSaveba. Cveni azriT, es ar unda iyos vrceli dokumenti, magram masSi kargad unda aisaxos axali xelisuflebis faseulobaTa sistema da qveynis ganviTarebis modelis ZiriTadi principebi, agreTve ekonomikur reformaTa Tanmimdevruloba (dRis wesrigi). ganviTarebis saSualovadiani strategiis SemuSaveba, rogorc aRvniSneT, gaamartivebs regulirebis gaurkvevlobis gadalaxvas, magram am problemas bolomde mainc ver gaaneitralebs. investorebi darwmunebuli unda iyvnen imaSi, rom arsebuli maregulirebeli CarCo, romelic maTTvis komfortulia, ar Seicvleba kardinalurad; da Tu Seicvleba, es ar moxdeba moulodnelad da maTi interesebis sazianod. aqedan gamomdinare, sasurvelia Seiqmnas komunikaciis formati, romlis farglebSic moxdeba maregulirebeli CarCos SesaZlo cvlilebis ucxoeli da adgilobrivi investorebisaTvis gacnoba. mizanSewonilia, rom es funqcia mTlianad erovnulma sainvesticio saagentom ikisros, risTvisac misi instituciuri gaZlierebaa saWiro. garda amisa, unda gadaixedos erovnuli sainvesticio saagentos Sesaxeb moqmedi kanoni, romelic veRar pasuxobs Tanamedrove moTxovnebs. investorTa ndobis aRdgenisaTvis Zalze mniSvnelovania instituciuri gaurkvevlobis gadalaxva, rac, uwinares yovlisa, investorTa xelSewyobis gamWvirvale da efeqtiani institutebis Seqmnas gulisxmobs. axalma mTavrobam gadawyvita sapartnioro fondis reorganizacia da mis bazaze suverenuli fondis Seqmna, Tumca aRniSnuli fondis instituciuri CarCo jer kidev ar aris cnobili. am reformis mimarT investorTa didi interesis gaTvaliswinebiT sasurvelia, rom mTavrobam daaCqaros Sesabamisi sakanonmdeblo aqtebis proeqtebis momzadeba, dainteresebul mxareebTan maTi droulad ganxilva da miReba. Cveni azriT, gansakuTrebiT mniSvnelovania ori sakiTxi: rogori iqneba suverenuli fondis, rogorc adgilobrivi da ucxoeli investorebis partnioris, roli da 15

ra mimarTeba eqneba mas erovnul sainvesticio saagentosTan. Cveni azriT, unda SenarCundes am or struqturas Soris arsebuli instituciuri bma. investorebisTvis, pirvel rigSi _ adgilobrivi investorebisaTvis, aranakleb sainteresoa soflisa da soflis meurneobis ganviTarebis fondis iuridiuli statusi da dafinansebis wyaroebi, radganac es fondi dReisaTvis agrarul seqtorSi grZelvadiani investiciebis xelSewyobis ZiriTadi instrumentia. migvaCnia, rom mTavrobam meti yuradReba unda miaqcios fondis, rogorc institutis ganviTarebas, maT Soris, misi iuridiuli statusis daxvewas, mis `avtonomias~ soflis meurneobis saministrosgan da misi funqcionirebis gamWvirvalobas. rac Seexeba mesames _ Tanainvestirebis kerZo fonds, marTalia, igi ar Sedis investorTa xelSewyobis saxelmwifo sistemaSi, magram, ramdenadac es fondi mTavrobis egidiT iqmneba, xolo misi moculoba, premier-ministris gancxadebiT, ramdenime miliard aSS dolars miaRwevs,48 es fondi qveyanaSi investirebis sakmaod mZlavr faqtorad SeiZleba iqces. aqedan gamomdinare, Znelia gadaWarbebiT Seafaso misi instituciuri mowyobis da funqcionirebis meqanizmis mokle vadebSi garkvevis mniSvneloba. politikis gaurkvevlobis gadalaxvisTvis principulad mniSvnelovania, rom investorTa xelSewyoba iyos `wesebze dafuZnebuli~ (Rule Based), anu investorma unda isargeblos mxolod arsebuli sainvesticio reJimiT gaTvaliswinebuli SeRavaTebiT. dauSvebelia yovelgvari faruli an araformaluri SeTanxmeba saxelmwifos an mis moqalaqeTa xarjze investoris mier damatebiTi sargeblis miRebis mizniT, rogorc amas wina xelisufleba akeTebda. imavdroulad, axalma mTavrobam, SesaZleblobis farglebSi, unda gaiTvaliswinos ukve ganxorcielebuli an ganxorcielebis procesSi myofi sainvesticio proeqtebis farglebSi misi winamorbedis mier aRebuli valdebulebebi, raTa ar moxdes moqmed investorTa interesebis Selaxva.

16

biznesis depolitizeba da dekriminalizeba ekonomikuri zrdis daCqarebisaTvis aucilebelia msxvili biznesstruqturebis gamoyvana politikuri Sokis mdgomareobidan, romelic maT arCevnebis Semdeg wina xelisuflebis mier damkvidrebuli uaRresad mankieri `TamaSis wesebis~ gauqmebis Sedegad miiRes. privilegiebis da elituri mfarvelebis dakargvis gamo aRniSnuli kompaniebi didi dartymis qveS aRmoCndnen: maTi umravlesobis gayidvebi mkveTrad daeca, erTi nawili daixura kidec, meore nawils ki eqspropriaciis safrTxe daemuqra, maT Soris, sagadasaxado davalianebis gamo.49 Tu gaviTvaliswinebT, rom am kompaniebis umetesoba msxvili sawarmoebia, romlebic SedarebiT maRali teqnologiuri doniT da kvalificirebuli samuSao ZaliT gamoirCevian, maTi paralizeba qveynis ekonomikas Zvirad daujdeba. aqedan gamomdinare, dRis wesrigSi dgeba aRniSnuli kompaniebis ekonomikuri aqtiurobis SenarCunebis sakiTxi, magram rogor?

Cveni azriT, procesi erTdroulad ori mimarTulebiT SeiZleba warimarTos: pirveli _ unda gaimijnos am kompaniebis menejmentis da realuri mflobelebis, maT Soris, politikurad angaJirebuli pirebis da maTi naTesav-megobrebis, pasuxismgebloba. am SemTxvevaSi aRniSnul sawarmoebs funqcionirebis gagrZelebis Sansi miecemaT, maTi patronebi ki, aucileblobis SemTxvevaSi, daeqvemdebarebian sisxlis samarTlebriv devnas elitur-korufciul sqemebSi monawileobisa Tu sxvisi qonebis miTvisebis gamo. am gziT SesaZlebeli gaxdeba dasaxelebul sawarmoTa saqmianobis erTgvari depolitizeba. meore _ Tu kompaniebSi gamovlindeba ekonomikuri danaSauli, maT Soris, gadasaxadebisgan Tavis arideba, razedac pasuxismgebloba uSualod menejments ekisreba, mizanSewonilia SemuSavdes am tipis danaSaulebis dekriminalizebisa da sagadasaxado valdebulebis ganvadebis moqnili meqanizmi. am gziT SesaZlebeli gaxdeba Tavidan aviciloT sawarmoTa dayadaReba da maTi saqmianobis SeCereba.

17

Tu gaviTvaliswinebT, rom es kompaniebi sakmarisad konkurentunariani arian da bazarze, faqtobrivad, dominirebuli mdgomareoba uWiravT, romlis Seryevas konkurenciis srulyofili kanonmdeblobis pirobebSic ki dro dasWirdeba, maT ar unda SeeqmnaT xelovnuri barierebi saxelmwifo tenderebSi monawileobis dros.

ekonomikis fiskaluri stimulireba

investorTa ndobis aRdgenas, aseve biznesis depolitizacia-dekriminalizacias, Zlieri politikuri nebis gamovlenis SemTxvevaSic ki, garkveuli dro unda. arada, saqarTvelos ekonomikas dauyovnebliv sWirdeba stimulireba, miT umetes, rom ukve weliwadze metia SeiniSneba aSkara deflaciuri trendi, romlis erT-erTi mizezi Siga moTxovnis sisustea.50 axali mTavrobis aqtiurma socialurma politikam, rac biujetis socialuri xarjebis mzard dinamikaSi aisaxa,51 rogorc Cans, ver gadafara biujetis kapitaluri xarjebis Seyovnebisa da mTavrobis moxmarebis (saqonlisa da momsaxurebis Sesyidvebi) Semcirebis uaryofiTi makroekonomikuri efeqti da Siga moTxovnaze arsebiTi gavlena ver moaxdina. aqedan gamomdinare, Tu xelisufleba ar daaCqarebs infrastruqturuli proeqtebis dafinansebas, ris Sesaxebac misi mxridan araerTi gancxadeba gakeTda, da ar gazrdis saxelmwifo Sesyidvebs, ekonomikuri zrdis tempebis Senelebis gadalaxva da recesiis Tavidan acileba gaWirdeba.

Cvens xelT arsebuli monacemebiT,52 2013 wels infrastruqturul proeqtebSi, wina welTan SedarebiT, 8,4%-iT meti Tanxebis dabandebaa saxelmwifo biujetiT gaTvaliswinebuli. amave monacemebiT, aRniSnuli xarjebis 42,5% 2013 wlis meore kvartalSi unda gaweuliyo, rac bevrad metia wina wlis Sesabamis periodSi gaRebul analogiur xarjebze. am xarjebis multiplikaciuri efeqti, Tu maTi ganxorcieleba ar Seferxda (Tundac, Sesabamisi tenderis Catarebis gaWianurebis gamo), savaraudod, wlis meore naxevarSi gamoCndeba, rac garkveuli optimizmis safuZvels iZleva ekonomikuri zrdis tempebis matebasTan dakavSirebiT. 18

unda aRiniSnos, rom ekonomikis zrdis tempebis vardna deflaciuri trendis fonze SesamCnev problemebs Seqmnis biujetSi Semosavlebis mobilizaciis TvalsazrisiT, rac, cxadia, dRis wesrigSi daayenebs xarjebis Semcirebis sakiTxs. saxelmwifos mier nakisri socialuri valdebulebebis Sesrulebas es, rogorc Cans, naklebad daetyoba, rasac ver vityviT biujetis sxva xarjebze. biujetis xarjebis klebam ki, ucxouri investiciebis dagvianebis SemTxvevaSi, SesaZloa xeli Seuwyos ekonomikis recesiaSi CaTrevas. amitom mizanSewonilad migvaCnia, rom mTavrobam biujetis deficitis garkveul zrdaze ifiqros, miT umetes, rom TviT saerTaSoriso savaluto fondic ki ar aris amis winaaRmdegi.53 gamoyenebuli wyaroebi 1 saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuri (saqstati), kvartaluri biuleteni, 2013, I, gv. 9-11. www.geostat.ge/cms/site_images/_files/georgian/QuarterlyBull_2013_I_Geo.pdf 2 iqve.

3 saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuri (saqstati). ekonomikuri zrdis winaswari Sefaseba, aprili, 2013. www.geostat.ge/cms/ site_images/_files/georgian/economic/yovelTviuri%20ekonomikuri%20statistikaaprili.pdf 4 saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuri (saqstati). saqarTvelos mTliani Sida produqti, 2013 wlis pirveli kvartali. www.geostat.ge/cms/site_images/_files/georgian/nad/GDP_2013_Q1(press-release)_ Geo.pdf 5 saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuri (saqstati). ekonomikuri zrdis winaswari Sefaseba, maisi, 2013. www.geostat.ge/cms/ site_images/_files/georgian/economic/yovelTviuri%20ekonomikuri%20statistika_ maisi_2013.pdf 6 ix.: International Monetary Fund. Georgia: 2013 Article IV Discussions Concluding Statement of the IMF Mission. June 10, 2013. www.imf.org/external/np/ ms/2013/061013.htm; “Fitch Ratings: Georgian Real GDP Growth to Reach 3% in 2013.� The Financial, Tuesday, June 3, 2013. www.financial.ge/pdf/ePaper.pdf 7 ix.: saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuri (saqstati). pirdapiri ucxouri investiciebi, 2013 wlis I kvartali. www.geostat.ge/ cms/site_images/_files/georgian/bop/FDI-2013-I-GEO.pdf 19

8 ix.: “Ending Georgia’s Corruption Needs Institutional Reform.” Oxford Analytica, Wednesday, January 9 2013.www.oxan.com/display.aspx?ItemID=DB180683 9 saqarTvelos erovnuli banki. inflaciis mimoxilva. maisi 2013, gv.

30. www.nbg.gov.ge/uploads/publications/inflationreport/2013/ir_2013_maypublish. pdf 10 saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuri (saqstati), mTliani Sida produqti da misi gamoyeneba ZiriTadi kategoriebis mixedviT. www.geostat.ge/cms/site_images/_files/georgian/nad/mSp%20danaxarjebis%20 mixedviT.xls 11 amaze saerTaSoriso savaluto fondis misiamac miuTiTa. ix.: International Monetary Fund. Georgia: 2013 Article IV Discussions Concluding Statement of the IMF Mission. June 10, 2013.

12 saqarTvelos finansTa saministros monacemebi.

13 am indeqss saqarTveloSi iv. javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilisis saxelmwifo universitetis ekonomikis saerTaSoriso skola (ISET) aqveynebs. http://iset-pi.ge/index.php?article_id=710 14 saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis monacemebi.

15 saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuri (saqstati). saqarTvelos sagareo vaWroba, 2013 wlis ianvari-maisi. www.geostat.ge/ cms/site_images/_files/georgian/bop/FTrade_05_2013_GEO.pdf 16 saqarTvelos erovnuli bankis monacemebi.

17 ix.: J. Kobzova. Georgia’s Bumpy Transition: How the EU can Help. The European Council on Foreign Relations, Policy Memo, April 4, 2013, p.3. http://ecfr.eu/ page/-/ECFR75_georgia_MEMO_AW.pdf 18 P. Rimple. Who Owned Georgia? 2003-2012. Transparency International Georgia, Open Society Georgia Foundation. 2012. http://transparency.ge/sites/default/files/ post_attachments/Who%20Owned%20Georgia%20English.pdf 19 V. Papava. “Anatomical Pathology of Georgia’s Rose Revolution.” Current Politics and Economics of the Caucasus Region, Volume 2, Issue 1, p.12-13; T. De Waal.

Georgia’s Choices. Charting a Future in Uncertain Times. Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2011, pp. 24-26. http://carnegieendowment. org/files/georgias_choices.pdf; “Ending Georgia’s Corruption Needs Institutional Reform”. Oxford Analytica, Wednesday, January 9 2013. www.oxan.com/display. aspx?ItemID=DB180683 20 ix.: gazeTi `bankebi da finansebi~, N319, 4-10 aprili, 2013 weli, gv. 12.

21 saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuri (saqstati). biznes seqtori. http://geostat.ge/cms/site_images/_files/georgian/business/sawarmota%20 20

zomis%20mixedviT/brunva.xls; National Statistics Office of Georgia (GeoStat).

Quarterly Bulletin, 2012, 1, p. 32. www.geostat.ge/cms/site_images/_files/english/ QuarterlyBull_2012_I_Eng.pdf 22 es cneba saqarTvelosTan mimarTebaSi erT-erTma pirvelma gamoiyena sareitingo kompania Fitch-is regionulma direqtorma Carlz sevilma, romelmac 2012 wlis 5 oqtombers gamoqveynebul komentarSi miuTiTa politikis gaurkvevlobis SesaZlo zrdaze saqarTveloSi arCevnebis Semdeg. ix.: Charles Seville. Smooth Georgia Power Shift Positive, Uncertainties Arise. www.fitchratings.com/gws/en/fitchwire/fitchwirearticle/SmoothGeorgia-Power?pr_id=763441 23 Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA). World Investment and Political Risk. 2012. www.miga.org/documents/WIPR12.pdf 24 The Financial, Tuesday, June 3, 2013. www.financial.ge/pdf/ePaper.pdf 25 Ibid.

26 Policy, Management, and Consulting (PMC) Research Center. Economic impact of proposed amendments to the Georgian Labor Code. www.scribd.com/doc/147307912/ Analysis-of-the-Amendments-to-the-Labor-Code-Eng-Final 27 V. Papava. Economic Reforms in Post-Communist Georgia: Twenty Years After.

New-York: Nova Science Publishers, 2013, pp. 89-91; C. Timm. Economic Regulation and State Interventions. Georgia’s Move from Neoliberalism to State Managed Capitalism. PFH Private Hochschule Göttingen, No. 2013/03, PFH.FOR.143.1306. www.pfh. de/images/stories/pfh/pdf/economic_regulation_and_state_interventions__georgia_s_ move_from_neoliberalism_to_state_managed_capitalism_timm_fp_2013_03.pdf 28 J. Kobzova. Georgia’s Bumpy Transition: How the EU can Help. The European Council on Foreign Relations, Policy Memo, April 2013, p.3.

29 “Messages sent by Government to the Business Community are Confusing”, Former EBRD Director”. The Financial, Tuesday, June 3, 2013.

30 International Monetary Fund. Georgia: 2013 Article IV Discussions Concluding Statement of the IMF Mission. www.imf.org/external/np/ms/2013/061013.htm 31 gazeTi `bankebi da finansebi~, N 329, 27 ivnisi-3 ivlisi, 2013.

32 M. Antidze. “In Ex-Soviet Georgia, Political Feud Shakes Investors”. CNBC. www.cnbc.com/id/100791903 33 sapartnioro fondi SedarebiT msxvili sainvesticio proeqtebis (soflis meurneobaSi aranakleb 5 mln laris, sxva dargebSi ki _ 30 mln laris moculobis) TanadafinansebaSi monawileobs.

34 mTavrobis 100 dRe. angariSi xalxs. saqarTvelos mTavrobis prezentacia. www.mfa.gov.ge/files/713_15964_897982_%E1%83%9B%E1%83% 21

97%E1%83%90%E1%83%95%E1%83%A0%E1%83%9D%E1%83%91%E1%83% 98%E1%83%A1100%E1%83%93%E1%83%A6%E1%83%94.pdf 35 `mTavrobam soflisa da soflis meurneobis ganviTarebis fondi arakanonierad daafuZna~. guria News, 18 ivnisi, 2013. www.gurianews.com/ home/2010-11-26-08-10-05/10827-q--------q.html 36 ix.: International Monetary Fund. Georgia: 2013 Article IV Discussions Concluding Statement of the IMF Mission. June 10, 2013; “Messages sent by Government to the Business Community are Confusing”, Former EBRD Director”, The Financial, Tuesday, June 3, 2013; Jana Kobzova. Georgia’s Bumpy Transition: How the EU can help. The European Council of Foreign Relations, Policy Memo, p.3.

37 ix.: Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency. World Investment and Political Risk. 2012, p.21. www.miga.org/documents/WIPR12.pdf 38 nino asaTiani. `realoba da miTebi tarifebis Sesaxeb~. For.ge, 26 noemberi 2012. www.for.ge/view.php?for_id=19021&cat=1; misive. `eleqtroenergetikis tarifebi da energetikuli momavali~. For.ge, 20 ianvari, 2013. www.for.ge/view.php?for_id=20573&cat=1 39 EBRD. Regional Economic Prospects in EBRD Countries of Operations: May 2013. EBRD Office of the Chief Economist. www.ebrd.com/downloads/research/ REP/rep-may-2013.pdf 40 International Monetary Fund. Georgia: 2013 Article IV Discussions Concluding Statement of the IMF Mission. June 10, 2013.

41 “Fitch Ratings: Georgian Real GDP Growth to Reach 3% in 2013”. The Financial, Tuesday, June 3, 2013. www.financial.ge/pdf/ePaper.pdf 42 `nodar xaduri: ekonomikuri zrda 6% ver iqneba~. BPI, 5 ivlisi, 2013. www.bpi.ge/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=15697%3A---6--&catid=921%3A2011-11-06-16-36-05&lang=ka 43 saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuri (saqstati), ekonomikuri zrdis winaswari Sefaseba, maisi, 2013.

44 saqarTvelos erovnuli banki. inflaciis mimoxilva. maisi 2013. www.nbg.gov.ge/uploads/publications/inflationreport/2013/ir_2013_may_publish.pdf 45 Jana Kobzova. Georgia’s Bumpy Transition: How the EU can Help. The European Council of Foreign Relations, Policy Memo, pp. 4-5.

46 “Ivanishvili Might Leave, But Might Also Stay as PM”. Democracy and Freedom Watch, Jul 3, 2013. http://dfwatch.net/ivanishvili-might-leave-but-might-also-stay-aspm-90376 47 saqarTvelos mTavroba. samTavrobo programa `Zlieri, demokratiuili, erTiani saqarTvelosTvis. http://government.gov.ge/files/68_350 92_403443_programa.pdf 22

48 “Prime Minister: Capital of Co-Investment Fund Might Reach 10 B Lari�. BPI, July 4, 2013. http://en.bpi.ge/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id =13904:prime-minister-capital-of-co-investment-fund-might-reach-10b-lari&cat id=49:2011-11-06-16-56-03 49 gazeTi `bankebi da finansebi~, N329, 27 ivnisi-3 ivlisi, 2013 weli, gv. 8.

50 saqarTvelos erovnuli banki. inflaciis mimoxilva. maisi 2013. gv.17.

51 iqve, gv. 28.

52 aq moyvanili monacemebi miRebulia saqarTvelos finansTa saministrodan.

53 International Monetary Fund. Georgia: 2013 Article IV Discussions Concluding Statement of the IMF Mission. June 10, 2013.

23