ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÓÔÒÀÔÄÂÉÉÓÀ ÃÀ ÓÀÄÒÈÀÛÏÒÉÓÏ ÖÒÈÉÄÒÈÏÁÀÈÀ ÊÅËÄÅÉÓ ×ÏÍÃÉ
GEORGIAN FOUNDATION FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
eqspertis azri
iujin kogani
oTxmxrivi urTierTobebi: ruseTi/evrokavSiri/nato/amerika-saqarTvelo
8 2013
publikacia daibeWda amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis saelCos finansuri mxardaWeriT.
mTargmneli:
rusudan margiSvili
teqnikuri redaqtori:
artem meliq-nubarovi
saavtoro uflebebi daculia da ekuTvnis saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis fonds. werilobiTi nebarTvis gareSe wignis arc erTi nawili ar SeiZleba gadaibeWdos nebismieri, maT Soris, eleqtronuli an meqanikuri formiT. Š saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa kvlevis fondi 2013 weli
teqstSi warmodgenilia ara stambolis kadir has universitetis saerTaSoriso da evropuli kvlevis centris (CIES), aramed statiis avtoris piradi Sexedulebebi da mosazrebebi.
ISSN 1512-4835 ISBN 978-9941-0-5763-2
ruseTi-saqarTvelo
ramdenadac afxazeTTan da samxreT oseTTan dakavSirebiT ruseT-saqarTvelos Soris arsebuli gaWianurebuli konfliqti ar mogvarebula, ruseTisa da saqarTvelos bundovani konfrontaciac gaurkveveli droiT iweleba. 2008 wlis agvistos omis dasrulebis Semdeg ruseTma gaaZliera Tavisi samxedro Zala afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi1 da amiT mkafio Setyobineba gaugzavna saqarTvelos mTavrobas: `Cven aq varT da davrCebiT imden xans, ramden xansac saWiro iqneba~ da `Cven SeiZleba ruseTisaTvis xelsayrel dros CaverioT saqarTveloSi mimdinare demokratiul procesebSi~. marTalia, saqarTvelo eswrafvis srulyofil demokratias, magram ruseTis prezidenti vladimer putini da misi mTavroba ar arian dainteresebuli, rom siaxloves demokratiuli qveyana hyavdeT. prezidenti putini da misi garemocva dasavluri tipis qveyanas arasasurvel fenomenad da sirTuleebis wyarod miiCneven da undaT, rom saqarTvelo Tavisi gavlenis sferoSi moaqcion. Cven ar gvgonia, rom ruseTi uars ityvis am survilebze. prezidenti putini da misi mTavroba ganagrZoben saqarTvelos daSinebisa da kuTxeSi mimwyvdevis Tanmimdevrul politikas, rac maTi msoflmxedvelobisa da usafrTxoebis Sesaxeb warmodgenebis Sedegia. Tu saWiro gaxdeba, daSinebisa da kuTxeSi mimwyvdevisa Tu, aseve, mediisa da diplomatiis binZuri kampaniis gamoyenebiT saqarTvelos aTasnair ubedurebaSi daadanaSauleben. ar unda dagvaviwydes, rom sazRvrebis gavlebis axali procesi, romlis magaliTic samxreT oseTis administraciuli sazRvris gaswvriv ruseTis jaris mier gabmuli mavTulxlarTebia, daiwyo ara 2013 wlis TebervalSi, aramed 2011 wlis april-maisSi.2 es kargad aCvenebs, ra SeiZleba moxdes. aRsaniSnavia, rom saqarTvelo-ruseTis sazRvari ar aris demarkirebuli da, amdenad, ruseTi am procesiT TiTqos avlebs jerac arademarkirebul sazRvars. ruseTis axali iniciativa, Secvalos faqtebi, aCvenebs, rom prezidenti putini da misi mTavroba yvela Zalas mimarTaven, rom gamoavlinon da mosinjon saqarTvelos Tavdacvis sistemis yvelaze susti adgilebi. 2008 wlis agvistos omTan dakavSirebiT dasavleTis farTo reaqciidan gamomdinare, putinma da misma mTavro3
bam daaskvnes, rom evrokavSiris wevri qveynebi momavalSi saqarTvelos interesebis dasacavad samxedro formiT ar Caerevian konfliqtSi. hilari klintonis, aSS-is saxelmwifo mdivnis, mniSvnelovani gancxadeba _ `Cven mxars vuWerT saqarTvelos teritoriul mTlianobasa da damoukideblobas da ar vaRiarebT separatistul regionebs~3 _ ar cvlis ruseTis pozicias. putins da mis garemocvas amgvari gancxadebebi 2008 wlis agvistos Semdeg xSirad esmiT da mieCvien kidec drodadro amis mosmenas. Cven SevecdebiT vimsjeloT, rom amgvari gancxadebebi ubiZgeben putinsa da mis mTavrobas ufro Zalismieri politika gaataron saqarTvelos mimarT. ruseTSi arsebobs mkafio warmodgena, rom iqamde, sanam saqarTvelos mTavroba ar gamoxatavs ukmayofilebas an sanam es ukmayofileba igvianebs, rogorc es sazRvris gavlebis procesis SemTxvevaSia, evrokavSiris reaqcia iqneba rbili da araefeqturi. evrokavSiri-saqarTvelo sanam evrokavSirs ar eqneba Camoyalibebuli da erTiani samxedro politika saqarTvelos mxardasaWerad ruseTis winaaRmdeg, manam saqarTvelo darCeba daucvel qveynad da yovelTvis iqneba ruseTisgan wamosuli muqarisa da safrTxeebis samizne. ruseTi ki, rogorc zemoT aRiniSna, yvela SesaZleblobas eZebs, rom aCvenos, Tu vin ganagebs samxreT kavkasiis regions. simarTle evrokavSiris samxedro SesaZleblobebis Sesaxeb arcTu sasiamovnoa evrokavSiris wevrebisaTvis, magram am sinamdviles ver gaeqcevian. isic unda aRiniSnos, rom evrokavSiris wevr qveynebSi gadaWriT uaryofili Tavdacvis biujeti ar gaizrdeba momaval sam Tu xuT weliwadSi. evrokavSiris 28 wevri qveynidan sams aqvs samxedro SesaZleblobebi da Tavdacvis biujetsac an inarCuneben da an daaxlebiT 2 procentiT zrdian. es qveynebia: safrangeTi, poloneTi da didi britaneTi. asea Tu ise, rac ar unda moxdes, es sami qveyana mainc ar apirebs saqarTvelos samxedro mxardaWera gauwios. arc imis garantia arsebobs, rom evrokavSiris politikuri da diplomatiuri saSualebebi raime seriozul zians miayeneben ruseTis binZuri kampaniis kargad amuSavebul meqa4
nizmsa da kargad artikulirebul politikas. anu sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, politikurad, diplomatiurad da samxedro TvalsazrisiT evrokavSiri ver daexmareba saqarTvelos. amrigad, evrokavSiris oficialuri pirebi ganagrZoben saqarTvelos darwmunebas, rom gamoasworos urTierTobebi ruseTTan, sakuTari Tavis sazianodac ki. am TvalsazrisiT saqarTvelos mTavrobam kargad unda gaiazros, ra limiti aqvs ruseTTan urTierTobebisas da ar misdios iseT politikas, romelic daazaralebs saqarTvelos erovnul usafrTxoebas. es moiTxovs fxizel analizsa da politikasTan dakavSirebul rekomendaciebs. sanam evrokavSiris oficialuri pirebi Tavs arideben prezident putinisa da misi mTavrobisaTvis miTiTebas, rom gamoasworon saqarTvelosTan urTierTobebi, manam amgvari calmxrivi da daubalansebeli politika sikeTeze metad avis momtani iqneba. SeZlebdnen ki evrokavSiris is qveynebi, romlebic aseve arian natos wevri qveynebi, raime cvlilebebi SeetanaT situaciaSi saqarTvelos sasargeblod? nato-saqarTvelo marTalia, natos Ria karis politika da saqarTvelos mimarT misi keTilganwyoba qebas imsaxurebs, magram amgvar politikas erTi mniSvnelovani dabrkoleba xvdeba. saqarTvelosTvis am karisaken mimavali gza ruseTs aqvs gadaRobili. ruseTis oficialurma pirebma SeiZleba mTlianad uaryon Cveni pretenziebi da Tqvan, rom ruseTs ara aqvs vetos ufleba saqarTvelos suverenul politikaze. sinamdvileSi ki ruseTs SeuZlia farulad daados veto saqarTvelos gadawyvetilebas SeuerTdes natos da prezident putins ar euxerxuleba ganacxados: ` natos _ ara ~. rodesac baltiis qveynebi SeuerTdnen natos, ruseTis mmarTvelobam es mSvidad miiRo. magram 2008 wlis agvistom viTareba Seuqcevadad Secvala da baltiis qveynebis magaliTi aq ukve aRar gamodgeba. 2008 wlis agvistos krizisma yvelas Seagnebina mniSvnelovani gzavnili, rom ruseTisaTvis, rogorc arasdros, mniSvnelovania kavkasiaSi Tavisi erovnuli interesebi, radgan am omma natos mniSvnelobac kargad warmoaCina. sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, prezidentma putinma gasagebad da erTmniSvnelovnad ganacxada _ `ara~. aseve SeiZleba iTqvas, rom putins undoda eTqva: `Tuki Tqven, saqarTveloSi, ruseTis survilis winaaRmdeg waxvalT natosken, mogiwevT 5
daiTvaloT gvamebi~. SesaZloa, Cveni daskvnebi cota xelovnuria, magram mainc warmoadgens fxizel Sefasebas imisa, Tu rogor uyurebs putini movlenebs. natos ar unda hqondes iluzia, rom SeZlebs Seucvalos putins msoflmxedveloba da azrovnebis stili, rogorc zogadad, ise saqarTvelosTan mimarTebiT. 2008 wlis agvistos omidan xuTi wlis Semdeg natom saqarTvelosTan dakavSirebul politikaSi kritikul mdgomareobas miaRwia. Tuki/rodesac nato gadawyvets, rom mzadaa mxarSi daudges saqarTvelos da daupirispirdes ruseTs samxedro formiT, unda gaiTvaliswinos sami umniSvnelovanesi faqtori da is grZelvadiani Sedegebi, rasac es faqtorebi natos moutans. es faqtorebia: politikur-diplomatiuri, samxedro da, yvelaze mniSvnelovani, ekonomikuri, Tavdacvis ekonomikis CaTvliT. ruseTis Sekaveba aseve niSnavs garkveul SemTxvevaSi masTan TaviT datakebas da ara _ Tavis aridebas pirveli SesaZleblobisas. dRevandeli viTarebiT evrokavSirisa da natos wevri qveynebi da TurqeTi, rogorc evrokavSiris erTaderTi arawevri qveyana, jerac damokidebuli arian ruseTis sawvavze da ar SeuZliaT pirdapir, samxedro formiT daupirispirdnen ruseTs. Sedegad _ nato saqarTvelos mimarT atarebs Ria karis politikas, magram SigniT ar Sehyavs. saqarTvelos natoSi gawevrianebasTan dakavSirebiT gadawyvetileba sxvadasxva mizeziT Wianurdeba _ rom saWiroa damatebiTi reformebi, an, rogorc andres fog rasmusenma ganacxada, saqarTvelo „swor gzaze dgas“ da „bevrad dauaxlovda natos“, magram „Tqven isev unda aiRoT Tqvens Tavze tvirTi da ganagrZoT saWiro reformebis ganxorcieleba“.4 es mosazrebebi gamudmebiT ismis saqarTveloSi da saqarTvelos oficialuri pirebi kargaven moTminebas, lamis xelic Caiqnion da imedi gaucruvdeT natosTan dakavSirebuli molodinis gaurkvevlobiT. SeiZleba qarTveli xalxis damokidebulebac Seicvalos natoSi gawevrianebasTan dakavSirebiT.5 marTalia, aSS-m samxedro daxmareba gauwia saqarTvelos, magram 2009 wlidan prezident barak obamas sagareo politikam gadainacvla samxreT kavkasiidan. am cvlilebam saqarTveloSi SeSfoTeba da daucvelobis SegrZneba gaaCina, TiTqos aSSm saqarTvelo bedis anabara miatova. SesaZloa, amerikeli maRalCinosnebi ar daeTanxmon Cvens am mosazrebebs, magram realoba swored Cvens am TvalTaxedvas adasturebs. 6
aSS-saqarTvelo sanam prezidenti obama Tavisi sagareo politikis veqtoris samxreTi kavkasiidan afrikis, aRmosavleT aziisa da Sua aRmosavleTisaken gadanacvlebis erTguli darCeba, azri ara aqvs mcdelobas, rom yuradReba kvlav samxreTi kavkasiisaken mivapyrobinoT. Sedegad, prezidenti putini Tavis Tavs liderad aRiqvams samxreT kavkasiis TamaSSi da grZnobs, rom axla misi droa. sxvagvarad rom vTqvaT, momavali 5-10 weli SeuZlia putins Seasrulos Tavisi gegma samxreT kavkasiaSi evrokavSiris, natos Tu aSS-is winaaRmdegobis gareSe, miuxedavad ruseTis saSinao problemebisa. Cven ar gamogvigonia, rom saqarTveloSi daisadgura daucvelobis grZnobam, rom obamas administraciam saqarTvelo bedis anabara miatova da rom Seicvala aSS-is prioritetebi, rasac putini axlodan akvirdeba. daskvna Cven mtkiced gvjera, rom saqarTvelos namdvilad sWirdeba partnioroba omis SemTxvevaSi. es, ra Tqma unda, iseTi survilia, rasac male asruleba ar uweria. TviT TurqeTic, saqarTvelos mezoblad mdebare qveyana, ruseTsaqarTvelos konfrontaciis SemTxvevaSi ver daexmareba saqarTvelos samxedro formiT.6 ruseTi Savi zRvis regionsa da kavkasias mxolod Tavisi moqmedebis arealad ganixilavs da ar moindomebs iq mmarTvelobis vinmesTan ganawilebas, rasac SeiZleba fiqrobdes ankara. ankaris es warmodgenebi usafuZvloa da ar emyareba raime realistur Sefasebas. Cvens mosazrebebs amyarebs, magaliTad, TurqeTis mdumare reaqcia ruseT-saqarTvelos omze 2008 wlis agvistoSi. roca saWiroa, ruseTi TurqeTis sawinaaRmdego TamaSs TamaSobs Savi zRvis regionsa da kavkasiaSi. kavkasiaSi stabilurobisa da TanamSromlobis platformasTan (CSCP) dakavSirebiT TurqeTis iniciativa, wamowyebuli 2008 wlis agvistos omis Semdeg, imTaviTve ar moiwona ruseTma da nel-nela gaqra kidec dRis wesrigidan. dRes mxolod Turqebs Tu axsovT, rom aseTi iniciativa wamoayenes. omSi partniorobasTan dakavSirebul Cvens survilebs Semdeg mosazrebebsac davurTavdiT: saqarTvelos Tavdacvis ministrma irakli alasaniam `radio TavisuflebasTan~ inter7
viuSi ganacxada: `Cven rusebs eSmakobiT unda vajoboT~. Cven vurCevdiT qarTvel kolegebsa da xelisufalT, rom rusebTan eSmakur politikas mimarTon an gamoiyenon rusuli meTodi, rasac `maskirovkas~ (e.i. SeniRbva) uwodeben. amasTan, unda gavacnobieroT erTi mniSvnelovani da sakvanZo sakiTxi: saqarTvelo arc dRes, arc xval da arc sam Tu xuT weliwadSi ar apirebs Sevides natoSi. es dro saqarTvelom unda gamoiyenos da Camoayalibos ruseTisa da natos mimarT politika. Sedegad Cven vurCevdiT Cvens qarTvel kolegebsa da oficialur pirebs, rom mimarTon ormxriv politikas: pirveli, saqarTvelos xelisuflebam nel-nela Searbilos Tavisi ritorika, aliansSi gawevrianebasTan dakavSirebiT da nel-nela agrZnobinos moskovs, rom saqarTvelosTvis misaRebia TamaSis moskovuri wesebi. dRevandelma mTavrobam marTalia zogadad Secvala ritorika, magram ar Seucvlia saqarTvelos natoSi gaerTianebasTan dakavSirebuli paTosi. saqarTvelos mTavrobas unda axsovdes, rom saqme aqvs flid da gonier ka-gebe-sTan da sxva Zalovani saministroebis warmomadgenlebTan. SesaZloa, ka-ge-be-s Cinosnebi brma iyvnen, magram ar arian yru da rogorc profiesionalma `musikalurma gundma~, ician rogor mousminon gulisyuriT da rogor ganasxvaon swori da mcdari bgerebi. amasTan, saqarTvelos mTavrobam ufro intensiurad unda iTanamSromlos aliansTan da gaaRrmavos kidec es TanamSromloba. mogvianebiT saWiroa Zalian mWidro TanamSromloba saqarTvelosa da natos Soris, presaSi yovelgvari informaciis gasvlis gareSe. aseTi politika moiTxovs ara mxolod xedvas, aramed kargad artikulirebul ideebsa da variantebs, Tu rogor SeiZleba amgvari politikis ufro warmatebiTa da gonivrulad gatareba. qarTvelebma magaliTi unda aiRon SvedeTisgan, rogorc is moiqca civi omis dros. SvedeTma sabWoTa kavSirSi dainaxa mowinaaRmdege, romelic ikvlevda SvedeTis Tavdacvis sistemas baltiis zRvaSi. erTi mxriv, SvedeTis mTavrobam sakuTari Tavi warmoadgina mSvidobismoyvare, megobrul, bunebriv da arasamxedro zraxvebis mqone qveyanad, magram, meore mxriv, gaaZliera samxedro mzadyofna teritoriuli TavdacvisaTvis, mSp-is wliuri 3 procenti Cado ra Tavdacvis biujetSi da Seqmna kargad awyobili samxedro mrewveloba, romelic gaafarTova civi omis epoqaSi. amasTan, Svedi 8
samxedroebi monawileobas iRebdnen sxvadasxva samSvidobo operaciaSi mTel msoflioSi da amiT didi gamocdilebac daigroves. amis Sesaxeb Svedma xalxma mxolod civi omis dasrulebis Semdeg gaigo da mTavrobam maSin ganacxada, rom aSSsTan samxedro TanamSromloba xalxis gamo xdeboda. amrigad, Cveni rCeva iqneboda saqarTvelos xelisuflebam ki ar gaimeoros SvedeTis magaliTi, aramed gaiTvaliswinos SvedeTis gamocdileba da qcevis Sveduri stilis komponentebi gamoiyenos saqarTveloSi. gamoyenebuli literatura 1 dawvrilebiT ix.: Vasili Rukhadze, “Russia Underscores its Military Presence in Georgia’s Breakaway Regions” in The Jamestown Foundation, Eurasia Daily Monitor, vol. 10, issue 101: www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_ news%5D=40952&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=685&no_cache=1#.UdPttDtHJSY – nanaxia 2013 wlis 29 maiss. 2 dawvrilebiT ix.: www.civil.ge/eng/_print.php?id=26144 – nanaxia 2013 wlis 4 ivniss. ruseTis reaqciis Sesaxeb ix.:www.izvestia.ru/news/551762 - nanaxia 2013 wlis 10 ivniss. ix. agreTve: Vladimir Socor, “Putin Hints at Normalization with Georgia on Russian Terms” in The Jamestown Foundation, Eurasia Daily Monitor, vol. 10, issue 115 ix.:www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=41033&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=685&no_cache=1#. UdJAhTtHJSY – nanaxia 2013 wlis 18 ivniss. 3 www.civil.ge/eng_/print.php?id=24858 – nanaxia 2012 wlis 7 ivniss. ix. agreTve Sergei Markedonov, “Lyuboi ne khuzhe” (“Anyone Else is Not Worse”). www.gazeta.ru/comments/2012/10/04_x_4798937.shtml. 4
ix. agreTve: www.civil.ge/eng/_print.php?id=26217 – online on 27 June 2013.
5 ix. Vasili Rukhadze, “Latest Georgian Casualties in Afghanistan Spark Unprecedented Public Debate and Doubts about Georgia’s NATO Perspectives”, The Jamestown Foundation, Eurasia Daily Monitor, vol. 10, issue 116 ix.: www. jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=41041&tx_ ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=685&no_cache=1#.UdJltjtHJSY – online on 19 June 2013. 6 Soner Cagaptay, “Turkey Fears Russia too Much to Intervene in Syria” in The Washington Institute for Near East Policy ix.: www.washingtoninstitute.org/policyanalysis/view/turkey-fears-russia-too-much-to-intervene-in-syria _ nanaxia 2013 wlis 6 maiss. soner Cagaptais statiis saxelwodeba SeiZleba ase gadakeTdes: `TurqeTs imdenad eSinia ruseTis, rom mxars ar uWers saqarTvelos ruseTis winaaRmdeg~.
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