HDPE - IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS FEBRUARY 2016
INDEX Particulars FEBRUARY REPORT MAIN POINTERS
Page No. 01
IMPORT SNAPSHOT
Particulars HDPE OFFERS
Page No. 16
CAPACITY PROJECTIONS & DEMAND SUPPLY SCENARIO
HDPE INDIA IMPORT SNAPSHOT
02
HDPE CAPACITY PROJECTIONS OF MAJOR PRODUCERS
17
HD/LD/LLD % SHARE IN INDIA PE IMPORTS
03
ETHYLENE CAPACITY PROJECTIONS OF MAJOR PRODUCERS
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HDPE MONTHLY IMPORTS REGION-WISE BREAKDOWN
04
INDIA HDPE DEMAND SUPPLY
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INDIA HDPE IMPORTS COUNTRY-WISE BREAKDOWN
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INDIA ALL PE DEMAND SUPPLY
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INDIA HDPE DESTINATION PORT-WISE BREAKDOWN
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INDIA POLYMER DEMAND SUPPLY
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SOURCE COUNTRY – DESTINATION PORT MATRIX – FEBRUARY 2015
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INDIA ETHYLENE NET AVAILABILITY
19
GOI 5 YEAR PLAN CAGR FIGURES
20
INDIA IMPORT DUTY STRUCTURE
21
CRUDE PRICE MOVEMENT & INR V/S USD
22
INDIA GDP GROWTH PROJECTIONS 2015-16
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DISCLAIMER
24
PRODUCT PRICING HDPE GRADES AVERAGE MONTHLY PRICING
09
HDPE FILM MONTHLY PRICES (MAX/MIN)
10
M-o-M AVERAGE PRICES % CHANGE
11
HDPE FILM 1 YEAR PRICE MOVEMENT
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HDPE FILM 3 YEAR PRICE MOVEMENT
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ETHYLENE INDIA PRICE MOVEMENT
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MAJOR PRODUCTS PRICE TRENDS
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Important Global News
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POLYMERUPDATE
HDPE – IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS
High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) February Report Main Pointers HDPE import volume decreased in the month of February HDPE grades witnessed a increase in prices considering monthly averages HDPE accounted for 33.32% of all PE that was imported into India 76.62% of the HDPE that was imported into India was sourced from the Middle East region Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE were the largest exporters of HDPE to India JNPT, Tuticorin & Chennai among seaports and Hyderabad & Ahmedabad among dryports were the largest HDPE import volume handling ports HDPE was sourced from a total of 25 countries with 37 ports in India being the destination points Ethylene prices witnessed a net upside Nymex crude & Dated Brent prices saw a net upside INR witnessed a net depreciation against the USD
Introduction HDPE is sometimes also referred to as polyethylene high-density (PEHD) and sees high import volume into India given its various applications. It takes 1.75 kilograms of petroleum (in terms of energy and raw materials) to make one kilogram of HDPE. Known for its large strength to density ratio, HDPE finds applications in Raffia, Blow Moulding, Film, Pipes and Injection Moulding. HDPE is highly preferred as a sheathing material where it provides high resistance to water penetration. It is very hard, has low coefficient of friction, and is abrasion resistant. Hence, it is used in products and packaging such as milk jugs, detergent bottles, margarine tubs, garbage containers and water pipes. HDPE is principally used for the manufacture of high-performance pipe, blow-molded household and industrial bottles, oil bottles, injection-molded food containers, consumer durables and disposable goods and film goods such as grocery sacks and merchandise bags.
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HDPE – IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS
Import Snapshot Exhibit: HDPE India Import Snapshot
Source: GoI Import Data The table gives a snapshot on HDPE India imports in terms of volume imported and monetary value of the imports. The month of February saw HDPE import level at 17964 MTS which represents a drop of 6.49% M-o-M. The monetary value of HDPE imports in February stood at Rs. 365 crores which represents a 34.80% decrease as compared to the preceding month.
Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400018, INDIA | Email: info@Polymerupdate.com | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025
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HDPE – IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS
Exhibit: HD/LD/LLD % share in India PE imports
Source: GoI Import Data The chart shows the monthly HD/LD/LLD percentage share in total PE imported into India.
Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400018, INDIA | Email: info@Polymerupdate.com | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025
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HDPE – IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS
Exhibit: HDPE monthly imports region-wise breakdown
Source: GoI Import Data The above table lists the region-wise breakdown of imported HDPE. The bulk of HDPE imported by India is sourced from the Middle East region.
Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400018, INDIA | Email: info@Polymerupdate.com | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025
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HDPE – IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS
Exhibit: India HDPE Imports country-wise breakdown
Source: GoI Import Data The table lists out the countries from which HDPE was imported into India.
Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400018, INDIA | Email: info@Polymerupdate.com | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025
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HDPE – IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS
Exhibit: India HDPE Destination Port-wise breakdown
Source: GoI Import Data, The table lists out the ports that handled the imported HDPE. Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400018, INDIA | Email: info@Polymerupdate.com | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025
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HDPE – IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS
Exhibit: Source Country – Destination Port Matrix – February 2016
Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400018, INDIA | Email: info@Polymerupdate.com | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025
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HDPE – IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS
Source: GoI Import Data The tables above represent the source country and destination port matrix which lists out the ports which have received the HDPE imports from the source countries for the month of February 2016. The type of port and the volume involved are also provided. Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400018, INDIA | Email: info@Polymerupdate.com | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025
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HDPE – IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS
HDPE India Pricing Exhibit: HDPE Grades Average Monthly Pricing
Source: Polymerupdate Price Archives (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic) The table lists out the average prices observed for the respective HDPE grades.
Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400018, INDIA | Email: info@Polymerupdate.com | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025
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HDPE – IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS
Exhibit: HDPE Film Monthly Prices (Max/Min)
Source: Polymerupdate Price Archives (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic) The table lists out the maximum and minimum prices that were observed for HDPE Film.
Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400018, INDIA | Email: info@Polymerupdate.com | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025
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HDPE – IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS
Exhibit: M-o-M Average Prices % Change
Source: Polymerupdate Price Archives (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic) The table lists out the M-o-M changes for the respective HDPE grades considering average monthly prices.
Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400018, INDIA | Email: info@Polymerupdate.com | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025
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HDPE – IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS
Exhibit: HDPE Film 1 Year Price Movement
Source: Polymerupdate Price Archives (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic) The chart shows the price movement for HDPE Film over a one year time frame. HDPE Film Price in the beginning of February 2015 = Rs. 83.46 per Kg HDPE Film Price at the end of February 2016 = Rs. 84.96 per Kg % Price change in 1 year = 1.80%
Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400018, INDIA | Email: info@Polymerupdate.com | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025
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HDPE – IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS
Exhibit: HDPE Film 3 Year Price Movement
Source: Polymerupdate Price Archives (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic) The above chart shows the price movement for HDPE Film over a three year time frame. HDPE Film Price in the beginning of February 2013 = Rs. 87.96 per Kg HDPE Film Price at the end of February 2016 = Rs. 84.96 per Kg % Price change in 3 years = -3.41%
Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400018, INDIA | Email: info@Polymerupdate.com | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025
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HDPE – IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS
Exhibit: Ethylene India Price Movement
Source: Polymerupdate Price Archives (India CFR USD/MT) Ethylene price in the beginning of February 2016 = 935 USD per MT Ethylene price at the end of February 2016 = 1010 USD per MT % price change in February 2016 = 8.02% Ethylene prices witnessed a net upside in the month of February.
Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400018, INDIA | Email: info@Polymerupdate.com | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025
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HDPE – IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS
Exhibit: Major Products Price Trends
Source: Polymerupdate Price Archives [HDPE (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), LDPE (Reliance Ex-Mumbai Panvel Depot Rs/Kg Inclusive of excise duty), LLDPE (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), PVC (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), PP (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), PS (Ex-Works Rs/Kg Basic), PET (Reliance Ex-Hazira Rs/Kg Basic), EVA (Reliance Ex-Works Rs/Kg Basic)] The table has been formulated by comparing the average price for the particular month as compared to the average price of the preceding month. If the value is “Up”, the average price for the particular month was observed to be higher as compared to the average price for the preceding month. If the value is “Down”, the average price for the particular month was observed to be lower as compared to the average price of the preceding month. If the value is “No Change”, the average prices of the particular month and the preceding month were observed to be the same. We have considered the India price movements of the following grades: HDPE – Film, Blow Moulding, Injection, Pipe, Raffia; LDPE – General, Heavy Duty, Injection, Lamination, Milk Pouch; LLDPE – Extrusion Coating, Film, Injection, Rotomoulding; PP – Block Copolymer, BOPP Homopolymer, Injection, Raffia, Random Copolymer, TQ Film; PVC - Suspension; PET – Bottle; PS – GPPS, HIPS; EVA.
Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400018, INDIA | Email: info@Polymerupdate.com | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025
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HDPE – IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS
Important Global News Sinopec Maoming Petrochemical is in plans to shut a high density polyethylene (HDPE) plant for a maintenance turnaround. A Polymerupdate source in China informed that the company is likely to shut its plant in early-March 2016. It is expected to remain off-line for a period of around 7-8 days. Located at Guangdong in China, the HDPE plant has a production capacity of 350,000 mt/year. PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC) is in plans to shut all three High density polyethylene (HDPE) units for a maintenance turnaround. A Polymerupdate source in Thailand informed that the company has scheduled to shut its HDPE units in late February 2016 along with the upstream cracker. It is expected to remain under a maintenance turnaround for a period of around 15-20 days. Located at Map Ta Phut in Thailand, the HDPE plant consisting three units has a production capacity of 300,000 mt/year, 500,000 mt/year and 140,000 mt/year. Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) is in plans to restart its HDPE plant at Gandhar complex. A Polymerupdate source informed that the plant is scheduled to resume production today. The plant was shut for a maintenance turnaround on February 1, 2016. Located at Gandhar complex in Dahej, the HDPE plant has a production capacity of 340,000 mt/year. Unipetrol is likely to shut its polypropylene (PP) and high density polyethylene (HDPE) plants. A Polymerupdate source in the Czech Republic informed that the company has scheduled maintenance in March 2016. Both the plants are expected to remain shut for the period of around 5-6 weeks. Located in Litvinov, Czech Republic, the petrochemical complex comprises of HDPE plant with a production capacity of 320,000 mt/year and PP plant with a production capacity of 290,000 mt/year.
HDPE Offers No offers
Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400018, INDIA | Email: info@Polymerupdate.com | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025
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HDPE – IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS
Capacity Projections & Demand Supply Scenario Exhibit: HDPE Capacity Projections of the major producers in India
HDPE Capacity (Kt)
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
RIL GAIL HPL IOCL OPAL BPCL
490 700 550 475 --155
490 700 550 475 720 155
490 700 550 475 720 155
490 700 550 475 720 155
Source: Chemicals & Petrochemicals Manufacturer's Association of India (RIL- Reliance Industries Limited; GAIL- Gas Authority of India Limited; HPLHaldia Petrochemicals Limited; IOCL- Indian Oil Corporation Limited; OPAL- ONGC Petro Additions Limited; BPCL- Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited)
Exhibit: Ethylene Capacity Projections of the major producers in India
Ethylene Capacity (Kt) RIL GAIL HPL IOCL BPCL - Assam GC OPAL
2013-14 1840 1000 670 857 220 0
2014-15 1840 1000 670 857 220 1100
2015-16 3240 1000 670 857 220 1100
2016-17 3240 1000 670 857 220 1100
Source: Chemicals & Petrochemicals Manufacturer's Association of India (RIL- Reliance Industries Limited; GAIL- Gas Authority of India Limited; HPLHaldia Petrochemicals Limited; IOCL- Indian Oil Corporation Limited; OPAL- ONGC Petro Additions Limited; BPCL-Assam GC - Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited Assam Gas Cracker)
Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400018, INDIA | Email: info@Polymerupdate.com | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025
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HDPE – IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS
Exhibit: India HDPE Demand Supply
HDPE (Kt) HDPE Capacity LLD/HD Capacity Total Capacity Production Imports Exports Apparent Demand Demand Growth%
2010-11 A 2011-12 A 2012-13 A 2013-14 E 2014-15 E 2015-16 E 2016-17 E 1690 1795 1795 1795 1830 2810 2810 847 1007 1007 1007 1007 1007 1007 2537 2802 2802 2802 2837 3817 3817 1216 1503 1501 1486 1621 2521 2606 330 385 440 410 480 220 230 55 227 160 115 65 368 500 1491 1661 1781 1781 2036 2373 2336 10.80% 11.40% 7.22% 0.00% 14.32% 16.55% -1.56%
The table provides the India HDPE Demand Supply Snapshot.
Exhibit: India All PE Demand Supply
All PE(Kt) Capacity Production Imports Exports Apparent Demand Demand Growth%
2010-11 A 2011-12 A 2012-13 A 2013-14 E 2014-15 E 2015-16 E 2016-17 E 2826 2072 970 65 2977 8.40%
2965 2519 1060 251 3328 11.79%
2980 2457 1217 170 3504 5.29%
2980 2485 1179 125 3539 1.00%
3065 2654 1313 77 3890 9.92%
5115 4488 790 588 4690 20.57%
5565 4996 730 730 4996 6.52%
The table lists out the PE Demand Snapshot for India.
Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400018, INDIA | Email: info@Polymerupdate.com | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025
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HDPE – IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS
Exhibit: India Polymer Demand Supply
Polymers (Kt) Capacity Production Operating Rate Imports Exports Net Trade Apparent Demand Demand Growth%
2010-11 A 2011-12 A 2012-13 A 2013-14 E 2014-15 E 2015-16 E 2016-17 E 8348 8487 8967 9882 10089 12290 12740 6854 7682 7958 8424 9059 11311 12089 82% 91% 89% 85% 90% 92% 95% 2087 2404 2970 2777 2957 2688 2907 722 1121 1057 1005 1215 1667 1641 -1365 -1283 -1913 -1772 -1742 -1021 -1266 8219 8965 9871 10196 10801 12332 13355 7.40% 9.08% 10.11% 3.29% 5.93% 14.17% 8.30%
The table lists out the India Polymer Demand Supply scenario.
Exhibit: India Ethylene Net Availability
Ethylene (Kt) Capacity Production Imports Exports Net Availability
2010-11 A 2011-12 A 2012-13 A 2013-14 E 2014-15 E 2015-16 E 2016-17 E 3837 3000 55 0 3055
3907 3355 15 0 3370
3907 3744 23 0 3767
4157 3985 50 0 4035
5637 5165 25 0 5190
7127 6755 25 0 6780
7127 6955 25 0 6980
All ethylene produced in India is used for local consumption and is not exported.
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HDPE – IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS
GoI 5 Year Plan CAGR Figures
5 Year Plan
Parameter
11th 5 Year Plan Capacity Creation Growth (2005/06 2011/12) Demand 12th 5 Year Plan Capacity Creation Growth (2011/12 2016/17) Demand
HDPE
Ethylene
9.20%
9.00%
10.90%
7.00%
11.10%
12.90%
9.20%
12.40%
CAGR Actual
Projected 13th 5 Year Plan Growth (2016/17 2021/22)
Demand
9.00%
0.80%
Source: GoI 12th 5 Year Plan on Petrochemicals The table gives the Actual CAGR achieved in the 11th 5 Year Plan (2005/06 – 2011/12) and the projected CAGR for the 12th 5 year Plan (2011/12 – 2016/17) and 13th 5 year Plan (2016/17 – 2021/22) for HDPE and Ethylene. As per government projections, HDPE is likely to enjoy above GDP growth rates in the 12th and 13th 5 Year plan periods.
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HDPE – IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS
India Import Duty Structure
INDIA
Products
Basic Duty %
Countervailing Duty (CVD) %
LDPE LLDPE HDPE PP-Homopolymer PP-Copolymer GPPS HIPS PVC PET
7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5
12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
Education Cess on CVD %
Special Additional Duty (SAD) %
TOTAL DUTY %
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
25.852 25.852 25.852 25.852 25.852 25.852 25.852 25.852 25.852
Source: Government of India
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HDPE – IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS
Crude Price Movement V/s INR performance against the USD
Source: Polymerupdate Market Intelligence, RBI currency reference rates The graph shows the movement of Dated Brent, Nymex crude and the INR performance against the USD. The Y-axis on the left is USD/barrel rate while the Y-axis on the right represents the conversion rate. INR value against the USD in the beginning of February 2016 = 67.85 per USD INR value against the USD at the end of February 2016 = 68.40 per USD % net value change in February 2016 = 0.81% (Depreciation) Dated Brent price in the beginning of February 2016 = 34.24 USD per barrel Dated Brent price at the end of February 2016 = 35.97 USD per barrel % net price change in February 2016 = 5.05% Nymex crude price in the beginning of February 2016 = 31.62 USD per barrel Nymex crude price at the end of February 2016 = 33.75 USD per barrel % net price change in February 2016 = 6.74% Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai – 400018, INDIA | Email: info@Polymerupdate.com | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025
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HDPE – IMPORT DATA & PRICING ANALYSIS
India GDP Growth Projections 2015-16:
Organization
GDP Growth
ADB
7.4%
CRISIL
7.4%
IMF
7.5%
World Bank
7.5%
Economic Intelligence Unit (EIU)
7.1%
Moody's
7.0%
Fitch
7.5%
Source: Data collected from various sources
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We will be happy to receive any feedback/suggestions on this analysis. Also, if there are any queries, then please do not hesitate to get in touch with us at info@Polymerupdate.com.
Note: The Govt. of India has decided as a policy matter to not disclose the names of the importers/exporters on the ground that revealing such information would violate commercial confidentiality. These rules are in the nature of subordinate legislation and have the legal force of the Parliament. Please refer to Notification No. 128/2004-Customs (N.T) Direct Link: http://www.cbec.gov.in/customs/cs-act/notifications/notfns-2k4/csnt128-2k4.htm The content in this report wherever the source is mentioned as the “GoI 12th 5 Year Plan on Petrochemicals” is owned by the Planning Commission, Government of India and its further distribution is strictly forbidden without permission of the Planning Commission, Government of India.
Disclaimer: This analysis makes use of Import data procured from the Indian Customs and is being made available on an “as is” basis. We have attempted to refine the raw database by removing records with sweep/reprocessed/off-grade material shipments and records with non-standard units. We have undertaken our best efforts in refining the database while formulating our statistics; however, customs data is known to include repetitions which are difficult to verify independently and February have inadvertently got included in this analysis. The figures have been rounded off during some calculations; hence some totals/subtotals February not match exactly. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information/opinions contained herein. It is advisable that all figures be considered as approximate. In no event will Shalimar Infotech be liable for any expense, loss or damage including, without limitation, indirect or consequential loss or damage, or any expense, loss or damage whatsoever arising from use, or loss of use, of data, arising out of or in connection with the use of this report. The content of this report cannot be reproduced without obtaining permission from Shalimar Infotech Pvt. Ltd. All rights reserved.
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