WELLS BRANCH DEVELOPMENT Analysis & Scenario Planning BCPS Associates: Chris Bischak, Pooja Chaudhari, Olivia Posner, Leon Staines
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Contents 1 The Site ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 3 2 History ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 5 3 Land Use ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 9 4 Demographics ................................................................................................................................................................................... 13 5 Infrastructure and Cultural Resources ............................................................................................................................................... 17 6 Economic Development & Opportunities ........................................................................................................................................... 19 7 Suitability Analysis ............................................................................................................................................................................. 25 8 Imagine Austin & Future Development .............................................................................................................................................. 28 9 SWOTs .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 30 10 The Trend Scenario ......................................................................................................................................................................... 32 11 The Urban Agricultural District (Healthy, Walkable, Green Design)................................................................................................. 35 12 The Accessible Employment Center (Smart, Complete, Community Design) ................................................................................. 46 13 Conclusion....................................................................................................................................................................................... 55
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1 The Site 1.1 INTRODUCTION Between 2006 and 2016, the City of Austin has grown on average 2.83% per year.1 Because of this tremendous growth, Austin was ranked as the number one best market for real estate development as of 2017. This means that Austin’s real estate is more valuable than ever and that open land is harder to come by. However, there are still large tracts of land that are undeveloped in Austin, especially in the Northeast portion of the city within Austin’s Extra Territorial Jurisdiction (ETJ). This report serves as a site analysis for a relatively undeveloped 6,718.5-acre area of land that is located just southeast of Pflugerville. The primary landmark within the site is the Austin Executive Airport. The site is located adjacent to State Highway 130, US Route 183, and US Route 290. Although the site is currently zoned primarily for agriculture use, the City of Austin has designated a portion of the site area as a future neighborhood center in their 2039 Imagine Austin Plan. Figure 1 shows the location of the study site in relation to the rest of Austin. This report will be divided in 10 chapters. The first chapter will cover the history of the study site. The next six chapters will discuss the existing conditions of the site. The final four chapters will provide an analysis of the site’s development potential and present various scenarios about how this development might proceed.
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Grisales, “Report: Austin’s Booming Economy No. 2 in Nation in Growth.”
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Figure 1: Location of Study Site as Compared to Austin
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2 History 2.1 EARLY SETTLEMENT ERA AND THE GROWTH OF PFLUGERVILLE Agricultural use has remained important to this site since settlement activity began. The land is still primarily zoned for agriculture and has changed very little since after the Civil War.2 Additionally, the history of the site is intimately tied to that of Austin and especially Pflugerville. Settlement in and around Pflugerville began in the 1840s when Henry Pfluger purchased a large tract of land northeast of the then nascent City of Austin3. During the Antebellum years, Pflugerville remained relatively undeveloped, and was utilized as a site of farming by Pfluger himself. However, development in the Postbellum period began to take off in the fledgling city. By 1875, the area had a school and church.4 Eventually a railroad was established, and the city continued to grow slowly until it was incorporated in 1965.5 In more recent years, the City of Pflugerville has experienced rapid growth mirroring that of the greater Austin area Figure 2. It is the third fastest growing city in Central Texas and grew by 21.7% between 2010 and 2015. This growth has put tremendous pressure on the City of Pflugerville both from a municipal services perspective and from a community perspective. Increasing amounts of farmland are being converted into single family housing and shopping centers, straining the city’s ability to provide services to these new residents.6 By 2030, the city projects will add over 41,000 new residents and further exacerbate the issues associated with rapid development. This
Smyrl, “History of Plugerville.” Barnes, “Prospecting Pflugerville’s Past.” 4 Smyrl, “History of Plugerville.” 5 Smyrl. 6 Parker, “Pflugerville 11th-Fastest Growing in Nation.” 2 3
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suggests that largely undeveloped tracts such as the one analyzed in this report will have great value and face intense development pressures.
Figure 2: Local Cities Population Growth
The City of Austin’s recent history further suggests that the site will face intense development pressures from both Austin and Pflugerville. Austin has experienced rapid growth in recent decades. To use just one metric to illustrate the extreme growth of Austin, the population of Austin has double approximately every 25 years since its founding.7 In addition to this tremendous population growth, the area has also experienced rapid economic development. As of 2015, Austin in the second fastest growing city economy in the nation.8 These trends are not expected to abate in the near-term future. According to a recent report, the Austin economy “enters 2018 7 8
Shelby, “Austin’s Population Has Doubled Every 25 Years or so since Its Founding.” Grisales, “Report: Austin’s Booming Economy No. 2 in Nation in Growth.”
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with a labor market and economy as robust as any it has experienced in nearly two decades”.9 Moreover, the population of Austin is expected to grow to over 5 million by 2050.10 Thus, the development pressures on the site from Austin are likewise expected to be intense, further increasing the value of the proposed development site. Figure 2.1 shows the population of Austin, Pflugerville, and the site itself between 2009 and 2016.
2.2. THE AUSTIN EXECUTIVE AIRPORT Although the study site is dominated by agricultural land use, there are other activities taking place on the site. The primary activity generator within the development site is the Austin Executive Airport, which has its own fascinating history. Ron W. Henriksen had a dream to build a general aviation airport from the ground up. In 1965, Ron paid just over $37,000 (a small fortune at the time) for a plot of land adjacent to Pflugerville. Figure 3 shows the original airport. Then, sometime in early 1966, Ray and his wife Mary began construction on a control tower, hanger, and other various airport facilities. Initially, the primary users of the airport were Ron’s Experimental Aircraft Association of friends who used the airport as a place to build, test, and fly their handmade crafts. After the initial phases of development, the airport slowly began to expand its operations. By 1976 more land had been acquired for the airport and by 1977, a six unit hanger and more extensive aviation facilities had been built on the property. In the late 2000’s, Ron began an ambitious modernization and retrofitting project that aimed to revamp the airport; and by 2011, the newly renamed and redesigned Austin Executive Airport opened.11 Today the airport serves as a hub for over 40,000 private and chartered flights annually. Moreover, the airport continues to expand its operations and has just recently added a new control tower.12
Zehr, “Austin’s 2018 Economy.” “Population | Greater Austin Profile | Economic Development | Austin Chamber of Commerce.” 11 “New Austin Executive Airport.” 12 Epstein, “Austin Executive To Receive New Tower.” 9
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Overall, the Austin Executive Airport had been of tremendous importance for both Austin and the surrounding Central Texas region. Texas State Senator Kirk Watson defined Ron Heriksen’s work with the Austin Executive Airport as an element that helps to increase transportation infrastructure and supports economic development in Austin. Dave Fulton, Director of the Texas Department of Transportation indicates that Heriksen has made great contributions to Texas general aviation. Overall, Heriksen spent $30 million building the Houston Executive Airport and recently another $33 million developing the Austin Executive Airport.
Figure 3: The Old Austin Executive Airport
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3 Land Use 3.1. EXISTING LAND USE An agricultural landscape dominates the Wells Branch site area. Agrarian land represents 61.38% of the total land use for the property. However, despite the wealth of agricultural land use across the site, there are many more parcels dedicated to housing in the region. The 6,718 acre site has 286 parcels that are zoned for housing, including 259 parcels zoned for single family housing, 16 parcels zoned for mobile homes, and 11 zoned for large-lot single family. Housing contains the most parcels for any given land use category in the site by far. And while there are only 90 agricultural parcels, land zoned and used for agricultural purposes makes up most of the site area because they tend to be larger in acreage. There is a total of 4,038 acres of agrarian zoned parcels. Table 1 shows the patterns of existing land usage and images of land usage patterns are shown below and Figure 4 shows the existing land uses.
3.2. PATTERNS OF OPPORTUNITY IN CHANGING LAND USE The existing land use pattern faces a crossroads split between the rural lifestyle that exists in the ETJ and future development within the Wells Branch Activity Center. Some may question the development of land within an agrarian zone, but the reality is that there indicators of opportunities for land use change. First, although agricultural land is dominant in the site, the occupations of the residents do not necessarily reflect that land use pattern. Within the four Census Block Groups in which our site lies, there are only 78 residents who work in agriculture, forestry, fishing, hunting, and mining. Out of the 21,410 employed residents in the Census Block Group area, 0.36% work in agriculture. Second, although the number of parcels zoned for housing outweigh every other land use category, the number of homes located on these parcels are few and far between. In terms of area, there are 20.54 acres of housing structures, and 700 acres of land area zoned
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for housing development. Therefore, only 2.9% of current land use area zoned for housing is occupied by housing. Even adding in the area required for setbacks and individual property regulations, translates to a vast majority of open, undeveloped land for housing. Third, there are 7 land use parcels that are over 100 acres. Table 2 shows the largest land uses. These large zones are made up of the land use types shown in the table below. The fourteen agricultural sites make up 29% of the total site acreage. The individuals that hold these lands, may be a strong voice in the community, and have strong opinions about changing land use. Type
Square Footage
Acres
Percentage
Number of Parcels
Housing
30,518,054
700
10.69%
286
Economic
170,866
4
.06%
6
Industrial
7,395,396
170
2.58%
33
Recreational
8,472,811
194
2.96%
9
Aviation Facilities
24,279,110
557
8.47%
5
Utilities & Roads
19,135,821
439
6.68%
10
Undeveloped
20,700,199
475
7.22%
64
Agricultural
175,885,410
4,038
61.38%
90
Total
286,557,666
6,577
100%
503
Table 1: Existing Patterns of Land Use
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Figure 4: Existing Land Use at the Site
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Type
Count
Acres
Agricultural
14
1,936
Aviation Facilities
1
486
Streets & Roads
1
206
Mobile Homes
1
181
Parks & Greenbelts
1
158
Undeveloped
1
416
Large-Lot Single Family
1
181
Table 2: Largest Land Uses in the Study Site
Figure 5: Graph of Land Uses
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Figure 6: Percentage of Land Use Classes
4 Demographics 4.1. THE SITE, SURROUNDING CENSUS BLOCK GROUPS, AND AUSTIN Because the development site intersects with four Census Block Groups, the exact number of people within the bounds of the study area is difficult to determine. When collecting data from the American Community Survey’s 2016 dataset, data from was pulled for both the Block Groups 1 and 2 in each of the Census Tracts 18.42 and 18.56. In those Census Block Groups, there are 18,354 people residing in the local block group area. An exact estimation is impossible without conducting a census within the boundaries of the study site. The site population density is low in comparison to the rest of Austin. As shown in Figure 7, the average population density ranges between 0 and 4,900 people. However, along the Western periphery of the study there are clearly denser pockets of development, where large scale developments have been built.
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Figure 7: Population Density of the Site
Although we cannot get an accurate population count because the Census Block Groups are split within the site boundary, we can review the pace at which Austin is growing. However, the total population of the site is approximately 18, 354, while the population of Austin the total population is 907, 779. This means that the site contains about 2% of the overall population of Austin. Considering that Austin has grown 28% (186,033 persons added) between 2000 and 2012 the site should be expected to change substantially in the near to medium term future. Table 3 shows that Austin is growing at a remarkable rate.
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4.2. PATTERNS OF DEMOGRAPHIC DIFFERENCE Generally speaking, the age demographics distributed within the local block groups are roughly similar to age demographics in the rest of Austin. Racially, however, the distribution of site is different than the rest of Austin. Table 4 shows the distribution of races in Austin as of 2016. Concerning racial distribution, the population of Austin is 75.9% white. The Census Block Groups sur- rounding our site is 64.3% white. Austin’s African American population is only 7.6% while the Census Block Groups around the Wells Branch site is 16.8% African American. Any urbanization proposal that may be on the site in the future may affect this balance, damaging not only the population distribution but also the networks and social cohesion resulting from the population currently distributed. City
2012 Population
Largest Cities Rank
2000-2012 Percent Growth
Charlotte, NC
775,208
17
43%
Austin, TX
842,595
11
28%
San Antonio, TX
1,383,194
7
21%
Denver, CO
634,265
23
14%
Nashville, TN
623,255
25
14%
Portland, OR
603,650
28
14%
Houston, TX
2,161,686
4
11%
San Jose, CA
982,783
10
10%
Table 3: Austin's Growth Rate
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Race
Study Site
Austin
White Alone
64.30%
75.90%
Black
16.80%
7.60%
American Indian or
.20%
.40%
Asian
9.30%
6.80%
Some Other Race
6.40%
6.10%
Two or More Races
3.10%
3.20%
Total
100%
100%
Alaskan Native
Table 4: Racial Breakdown of the Site
It is interesting to notice that the Median Household Income for the local Census Block Group area is $66,708, while in Austin is $60,939. Despite the higher than average income of the larger site area, 76.1% of the owners occupy their houses. This is a high percentage if we compare the 45.3% of Austin owners that occupy their houses. This tenure statistic can give us an idea of the lifestyle of the inhabitants, their ideas, and even some feature as their personalities as a group. Though we cannot deduce how they may react to a densification proposal, we know that their strong level of homeownership may indicate a pattern of land use change unfamiliar to them. This may give us information on how to approach future proposals. The following values reflect the Ratio of Income Poverty Level. A key aspect of this chart is that although Austin seems to be doing better than the Census Block Group area, generally; 37.20% of the population in the larger block group is under the ratio of 2.00. While 33.80% of The City of Austin is under the ratio of 2.00, we can see that there is a much greater percentage of people doing poorly. Specifically, 16.70% of Austin population live like that while only 9.70% of the study site does. The above is important because we can
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suggest that the population in the site is homogenous, in general this could mean they share common interests and ideals, which makes the group stronger. Finally, the education level for population over 25 years and over (next table) we can see that in general, Austin is better educated than the Census Block Groups that contain the Wells Branch Site Area.
5 Infrastructure and Cultural Resources Above ground infrastructure within the Wells Branch Site Area is sparse. Although the area is lightly developed, it is not devoid of infrastructure. State Highway 130 runs through the site, and large electric towers dot the landscape. The primary, current activity center for the study site is the Austin Executive Airport, which opened in 2011. The airport is a privately owned and operated airport that services mostly small airplanes on its two runways. Despite its small size, it currently serves about 40,000 flights annually and serves as the primary hub for activity within the site.
5.1. TRANSPORTATION Aside from the airport, transportation infrastructure in the area is primarily limited to roads and private vehicle transportation. Currently, there are no public transportation routes or stops located within the study site. Figure 5 shows the state of the transportation network within the study site. However, approximately one mile south of the study site there are bus stops for the 990 and 470 buses. In terms of road infrastructure, the roads can be described as discontinuous. There is about 35 miles of roadway within the study site, but very few roads run through the site boundaries. Pedestrian infrastructure and bike lanes in the study area are also very limited. There are only 2.5 miles of sidewalks within the Wells Branch site currently, and all are clustered along the site boundaries near the developed areas. There is one bike lane which runs along East Howard Lane and totals 1.5 miles in length.
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Figure 8: Transit Network of the Study Site
5.2. UTILITIES Sewer is not currently provided to the site. The houses that sit on the development site are mostly if not entirely operating on septic systems. The site falls entirely within the City of Austin’s water service boundary, however. Thus, if the site begins to develop more in the future, the City of Austin will have to run sewer lines out to the site. In terms of power, the site is within a shared service zone between Pflugerville and City of Austin.
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6 Economic Development & Opportunities Economically, the site is mostly undeveloped. However, some development has begun to take place within the broader site area. Approximately one mile west of the study sits a cluster of parks including a BMX park and soccer fields. In addition to these existing parks, the City of Pflugerville is planning to build a large soccer complex adjacent to the site. Close to the site is also a cluster of light industrial uses Figure 9 including a small film services company, and some automotive repair places. Additionally, there has been some residential infill close to the site. For example, Edinburgh Gardens, a housing development, is located about 1.5 miles southwest of the site. This area also has some office parks and other commercial development.
Figure 9: Light Industrial/Commercial near the Study Site
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6.1. CAPITAL METRO GREEN LINE The biggest development opportunity for the site would likely come about as the result of the Capital Metro Green Line. The Capital Metro Green Line is a proposed heavy rail commuter line. It would run from Downtown Austin to Manor along 28 miles of existing right-of-way that Capital Metro owns (Cap Metro Report). Capital Metro believes that line could start running sometime around 2030. However, the line does face some potential issues. Namely, Capital Metro predicts that the areas immediately east of the city would be low ridership areas. Therefore, Capital Metro believes that “local jurisdiction action [is] needed to spur transit-supportive development in [the] corridor� in order to make the Green Line truly viable (Capital Metro Report). This transit-supportive development would represent tremendous potential for the study site. While the rail line would not run directly through the site, it would be close to the study site. Thus, transit adjacent development would likely develop in the area. Figure 10 shows the proposed route of the Green Line.
Figure 10: Cap Metro Green Line Proposed Route (Source: Cap Metro)
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6.2. AIRPORT Understanding the airport is critical to understanding the future of the development site. The future of the airport will largely influence whether or not current development can take place in the site. Studies have shown that home values tend to fall when the homes are located closer to airports. However, other studies have shown that airports actually increase the value of commercial properties. Thus, if the airport remains in place this will likely induce more commercial development as opposed to residential development.
6.3. LAND VALUE OF THE SITE The land value of the site varies widely. Currently, there are few parcels zoned for housing that are have land valued at $500,000 and above. Aside from the Austin Executive Airport, one of the most expensive pieces of real estate in the Wells Branch site is in the Northwest corner in the Boulder Ridge mobile home park. This neighborhood, located next to the Northeast Metro park Soccer Field Pavilion, has a median listing price of $268,995. The Soccer Field will soon be joined by the Lonestar Soccer Complex, a neighboring facility within the heart of the Wells Branch Site. The complex will be 22 acres, and home to a competitive training facility (City of Austin, 2018).
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Figure 11: Land Value at the Site
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6.4. COMMUNITY CHARACTER While the Wells Branch site is overwhelmingly agricultural, there are pockets of unique destinations that exist in and around the site, aside from the Austin Executive Airport. The Manor Equestrian Center (MEC) is a 30-acre piece of land where visitors can take horseback riding lessons and train with their horses. The MEC speaks to the agricultural character of the site. The 349-acre North East Metropolitan Park (NEMP) sits just above the site, and provides a wealth of recreational options for residents in the neighboring communities. There are soccer fields, multi-use fields, baseball fields, a cricket field, basketball court, tennis court, BMX racetrack, and a skate park. The Lonestar Soccer Complex, which is currently being developed at the corner of Cameron and Gregg Manor road, will be a 22-acre competitive training facility. The Wells Branch site is also home to Film Fleet LLC, a local company that provides movie set trailers to the film industry for productions that are shot in Austin. There are several important facilities in and around the Wells Branch Site. While there is no school within the site boundary, there are several adjacent schools as close as 6 miles to the site border. The closest hospital, Cross Creek Hospital, is located 12 miles away from the site in North Austin. Police and fire stations are located north of the site in Pflugerville, and to the southeast of the site in Manor. Both smaller cities strengthen the Wells Branch site area by providing important resources. Figure 12 shows various points of interest in and around the site.
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Figure 12: Points of Interest Near the Study Site
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7 Suitability Analysis For this report a final suitability analysis of the site was conducted. In total, 10 different factors were considered: six of these factors were natural environment constraints and five of these factors were built environment constraints. Each of these factors is furthered detailed in their respective sections below. 7.1 NATURAL ENVIRONMENT FACTORS The six natural environmental factors that were considered are: •
Parks & Green Space
•
Wildfire Response Index
•
Floodplains
•
Wetlands
•
Soil Conditions
•
Slope
Wetlands and floodplains are the most important environmental constraints that we considered. The City of Austin prohibits development entirely within the 25-year floodplain and severely restricts development within the 100-year floodplain. Thus development within these areas will be almost entirely prohibited. Because 11% of the study site falls within the 100-year floodplain that land be not be able to be developed. Additionally, wetlands are environmentally sensitive areas that should not be developed. In terms of soil, the majority of the site is Houston Black Clay or other, similar prime farmland soils. Thus, an additional constraint was placed on our model in attempt to avoid development in prime farmlands whenever possible. Wildfire Figure 13: Natural Environment Factors
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risk in the site was generally low and thus was not weighted heavily in the model. Finally, slope and contour of the land was considered, but there was very little variation in slope across the site and thus slope was not weighted heavily in the model either. Figure 13 gives a full accounting of the environmental constraints considered.
7.2 BUILT ENVIRONMENT FACTORS The four development constraints factors that were considered are:
Streets
Existing Settlements
Airport Facilities
State Highway 130
In terms of built environment factors, four different constraints were placed on the study site. First, development closer to existing settlements, like the existing homes and the airport, was considered to be more advantageous than development further from the site. Second, development closer to existing arterial roads was considered desirable. Finally, development near the highway was considered undesirable and thus weighted negatively.
7.3 FINAL SUITABILITY ANALYSIS In the final suitability analysis, the built environment was weighted as 40% of the overall score and the natural environmental factors were weighted at 60%. Overall 44% of the land was found to be very desirable for development. Figure 15 shows the final suitability of the site for development. Figure 14: Built Environmental Factors Considered
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Figure 15: Suitability Map of the Site
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8 Imagine Austin & Future Development 8.1 WELLS BRANCH ACTIVITY CENTER Imagine Austin has designated the area where Cameron road, Harris Branch parkway, and Gregg Manor road meet as a future neighborhood center. Imagine Austin envisions center areas of the city as being centers for activity that will anchor neighborhoods. These locations represent future hubs where development is densified around transit, jobs cluster, and residents can access services in mixed use development accessible by diverse transportation modes. These centers fall along a range of scales. 1. Regional Centers are considered the entertainment and recreational destinations, as well as job centers in the region. Though density varies, these centers include the highest concentration of people in various housing types. Regional centers range in size between 25,000 - 45,000 people and 5,000 - 25,000 jobs. 2. Town Centers include both large and small-scale employers, and include various housing types less dense than the ones you might find in a regional center. They are range in size from 10,000-30,000 people and 5,000-20,000 jobs. 3. Neighborhood Centers are defined by Imagine Austin as the “smallest and least intense” of the mixed-use centers. According to the plan these centers will be “walkable and bikeable” and many services will be located within a few blocks of the center. However, the plan also states that “not every [transit] service” will be located within the center area. Rather, the center will serve to anchor the larger neighborhood and various services may be located around the designated center. As a future neighborhood center, the Wells Branch area will likely represent a hub for the local region. It is not clear what development may occur, but the area holds promise for a very different landscape.
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Figure 16: Imagine Austin Town Centers Render
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9 SWOTs The strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOTs) of the area can inform the ways in which the Wells Branch site develops in the future. We see a significant opportunity to utilize the area’s strengths in future development plans that appropriately consider the nature of the site. Further, there are several weaknesses that limit the ability of development to occur seamlessly. Considering these strengths and weaknesses will allow plans for development to be inclusive of the realities of our site. Opportunities and threats reveal the ways in which the site can best incorporate strengths and perform amidst the weaknesses.
9.1 STRENGTHS •
The site is relatively free of development with lots of open space. There is room to grow!
•
There are recreational park spaces near the site and creeks that can serve as green infrastructure that runs through the site.
•
Slopes and creeks in the region can provide water runoff to prevent flooding.
•
Parcels are relatively large in size, allowing for flexibility of development within them.
•
Tech Ridge is 8 miles away from the site.
•
The site is strategically location between Pflugerville and Austin.
9.2 WEAKNESSES •
The land is currently suited for agricultural purposes, and existing communities have gathered around this resource.
•
There are a reasonable amount of houses within the huge parcels. This may cause difficulties when it comes to negotiations with local land owners if they have bargaining power over large tracts of land.
•
Transportation costs might be significant to residents who work in downtown Austin or South Austin.
•
It will be costly to add significant infrastructure to the site area, such as sewer lines, water pipes, roads, traffic lights, etc.).
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9.3 OPPORTUNITIES •
Future development can be dense, incorporating Imagine Austin’s future land use goals.
•
If the Green Line is built, there are ample opportunities for transport oriented development (Green Line).
•
Development can provide ample low-income housing.
•
The region can provide ecological services with native trees and vegetation in parks
•
Development can consider walkability and serve as a successful example of complete streets and smart growth.
•
Developing the Wells Branch neighborhood center can make the visions of Imagine Austin a reality!
9.4 THREATS •
Existing patterns of growth in the regions have resulted in sprawl. Developers could continue this pattern of low density development in the site.
•
Development could limit the connectivity to natural resources identified in the strengths section.
•
Growing into the ETJ on the edge of Austin may limit the capacity of the city to focus on urban infill and redevelopment in lowdensity areas of central Austin.
•
As a primarily agricultural area, development may infiltrate the existing rural way of life, and may not be able to accurately build for improving the lives of people within the region.
•
Because of the limited physical infrastructure like roads, and the cost required to build them, future development that centers may have limited connectivity.
The above strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats create ample opportunity for the Wells Branch site. The future of the region hinges on the ability of developers to carefully consider the impacts that development will have on the region. This report serves as a basis for considerations that will not only improve the local area, but build a legacy for future development in Austin.
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10 The Trend Scenario The trend scenario is based on the current, prevailing land use and economic conditions. Figure 18 shows what the land use patterns would look like under this schema. Essentially, the defining feature of the trend scenario is the large amount of single family, tract housing that would come to dominate the site. Figure 17 is an example of such land use patterns observed near the site currently.
Figure 17: Single Family Tract Homes near the Study Stie
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Figure 18: Future Land Use Map under Trend Scenario
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The western 2/3rds of the site would be single family housing. This housing would likely be developed as tract homes by various home developers in the area and divided up into subdivisions that may not be coherently connected. Some commercial corridors are likely to develop along the main roads within the site such as the 130 and Cameron Road. Additionally, give current conditions, the Austin Executive Airport is likely to stay in place and even grow its operations. Given this, in the trend scenario, it is likely that the airport will stay in place. Thus, the land proximate to it is likely to remain as undeveloped open space with perhaps some light industrial developing relatively close to it. In terms of land use mix for the site, under the trend scenario the vast majority of the developed land would be dedicated to single family housing. At least 67% of the land would be dedicated to single family housing. Of these single family homes 74% of them would be small lot single family homes and 26% of them would be conventional lot single family homes. The next largest land use category would be retail space with at least 25% of the developed land dedicated to retail space. Finally, about 5% of the land would be dedicated to office space and 3% of the developed land dedicated to industrial use. This land use mix would produce a neighborhood that is relatively homogeneous with a high commuter population. In the trends scenario the jobs/housing balance would 1.1. While this number is not particularly low it could be improved with the addition of more jobs in the site.13 Additionally, continuing the pattern of relatively homogenous land use, most the jobs would be in retail with 22% of the developed land use concentrated in retail and 67% of the jobs concentrated in the retail sectors. Under the trends scenario the population of the site would explode. The current population of the site is just over 1000 people with 1,085 living in the site. The trend scenario would see that number swell to 21,359. As aforementioned, most of that growth would take place in a low density manner and thus the net density, in terms of people per acre, would decrease from 19.1 persons per acre
13
“Employment Housing Ratio.�
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currently to 18.3 persons per acre in the trend scenario. Additionally, the Floor Area Ratio (FAR) would remain low at around .34 for new development in the trend scenario.
11 The Urban Agricultural District (Healthy, Walkable, Green Design) 11.1 THE VISION Our neighborhood center incorporates agricultural systems, grows and optimizes existing ecology, and reimagines these systems within an urban framework. Our vision for this site is one of significant land use change. This scenario would aim to preserve the general farming character of the community, and improve upon environmental outcomes for the site. We aim to preserve at least 15% of the land as prime farmland. Additionally, we aim to develop relatively dense, mixed use development along transit corridors. East of State Highway 130, we imagine a vibrant landscape that intersects single housing and multifamily development, alongside agriculture to create a unique transect. The regions to the west and south of the site where other neighborhood centers have been identified would see increased housing development within this scenario. Specifically, single family housing and multifamily housing, with key areas set aside for commercial development, neighborhood parks, and civic land use. Surrounding these areas, we would see agricultural farming lands taking shape as neighborhood greenbelts. These agricultural landscapes would align with open space designated around creeks to act as green infrastructure and mitigation zones in the case of a flood. Between the two creeks on the eastern portion of our site, land use would transition from agriculture to single family to multifamily, an back to single family and agriculture. Essentially, we would utilize the organic forms of the creeks to sandwich multifamily units in between two rows of single family residences and farmsteads. This unique land use plan aims to integrate agriculture into the daily lives of residents.
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Of course, this form would be complemented by a larger stretch of single and multifamily housing units just east of the highway. Additionally, a town center land use mix would occupy the area currently identified as Austin’s future neighborhood center. To the right of the highway, commercial districts, multifamily housing units, and open space would intermix within the site. To the northeast, the airport would be flanked by light industrial development, minimized to ensure the health and wellbeing of the landscape within.
Figure 19. Scenario 1 zoom
11.2 THE GOALS, OBJECTIVES, AND ACTION STEPS This ambitious plan would prioritize the following set of targeted goals, objectives, and action steps to would help bring this vision to life.
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11.2.1 LAND USE Promote resilient local food systems through reimagining agricultural land
Objective: All residents have access to healthy food from their local, neighborhood farms o Action Step 1: Retain agricultural land in attractive, creekside locations and zone for smaller farms to promote a certain size and type of agricultural growth o Action Step 2: Prioritize community oriented recreational spaces for neighborhood farmers markets
Objective: Build connectedness of the agricultural areas within our site o Retain 15% of land use as agricultural o Ensure local farms are close to housing to encourage a community invested in their local agricultural systems
Develop compact and walkable communities
Objective: 50% of residents will be able to access their basic needs through walking and biking o Action Step 1: Revising parking requirements to promote walking, biking, and transit in the core of the neighborhood center o Action Step 2: Develop new roads that encourage linear paths and improved connectivity for biking and walking
Objective: All residents will have access to common spaces to enhance community and build close grained diversity o Incentivize development that is interconnected, and disincentive disconnected cul-de-sacs o New developments must retain 20% of space for mixed use development
11.2.2 TRANSPORTATION Cultivate opportunities for active transportation
Objective: Services (groceries, pharmacies, coffee shops, etc.) will be accessible to residents through via public transportation, biking, and walking
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o Action Step 1: Leverage funding from Tax Increment Financing (TIF) districts and Public Improvement Districts (PID) to build connected street, sidewalk, and biking infrastructure o Action Step 2: Improve streetscapes and infrastructure along activity corridors and at activity centers through prioritizing urban design and utilizing form based code 
Objective: Residents will have access to bikeable green infrastructure along the new creek based greenway o Action Step 1: Build multipurpose uses for paths next to the greenway site o Action Step 2: Work with local environmental groups to sustain programming along the greenway to ensure residents will use it as a community center.
Figure 20. This conceptual section shows a diverse range of mobility options within one streetscape.
Prioritize public transportation 
Objective: Residents within the Wells Branch site will be connected to Downtown Austin via public transportation o Action Step 1: Ensure connectivity with the future Green Line by developing streetscapes that encourage bus transportation, such as shady bus stops o Action Step 2: Encourage connections from bus stations into neighborhoods through connected intersections
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Objective: By 2030, VMT within the site will be reduced by 10% o Action Step 1: Evaluate and redevelop parking regulations to ensure they balance the needs of various transportation options o Action Step 2: Improve traffic calming tools and safety using complete street design (street trees, wide sidewalks) to encourage pedestrian needs are met
11.2.3 HOUSING Uphold a shared community vision through communal housing
Objective: Connect housing to jobs, child care, schools, and retail so residents can gather around shared amenities o Action Step 1: Develop residential neighborhoods that are connected to collective and shared spaces o Action Step 2: Encourage amenities that focus on family and lifestyle choices in mixed use areas (like gyms)
Objective: Diverse groups of residents will feel at home in the Wells Branch Site o Action Step 1: Allow a variety of housing types including rental and ownership opportunities for various types of residents (singles, families with and without children, seniors, etc) o Action Step 2: Ensure neighborhoods are well connected with ample sidewalks, parks, and neighborhood mixed use districts
Encourage affordable and green housing options
Objective: Build affordable housing that can help meet Austin’s growing need o Action Step 1: Encourage public private partnerships to develop affordable housing o Action Step 2: Balance homeownership and rental opportunities
Objective: New developments will reflect the sustainable values of the Wells Branch Community o Action Step 1: Renovate the existing housing stock to reduce utility and maintenance costs for owners and occupants, conserve energy, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions
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o Action Step 2: Encourage green practices in housing construction that translate into energy-efficient homes 11.2.4 ENVIRONMENT Provide green infrastructure and natural flood prevention to limit water runoff for new developments
Objective: Buildings at risk of flooding will be protected from the 50 year floodplain o Action Step 1: Rezone areas 1 mile from creeks to eliminate future development in the floodplain o Action Step 2: Develop a green infrastructure coordinating committee to determine best choices in landscape architecture of the site
Objective: Residents will have the opportunity to develop sustainable systems on their properties and farms o Action Step 1: Policies will incentivize rainwater collection systems and composting by reducing other utility bills o Action Step 2: Agriculture in the area will establish opportunities for drip irrigation by utilizing the rainwater collected locally from neighbors
Ensure green space is accessible to all residents
Objective: All residents are within biking distance of a community park o Action Step 1: Maximize the role of parks and recreation in promoting healthy communities and lifestyles by connecting them with biking and walking paths and leaving room for sports activities o Action Step 2: Designate a space for parks at least 3 acres big in every neighborhood center
Objective: Neighborhoods incorporate a medley of green infrastructure options o Action Step 1: Retain native plant growth in landscape development o Action Step 2: Improve opportunities for residents to own backyard chickens and perform beekeeping activities through relaxed regulations
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Figure 21. This conceptual section shows the gradual change in population density starting from the open space, through farmland and single family housing, and to the dense core of mixed use development.
11.2.5 INFRASTRUCTURE Enhance green infrastructure within the site
Objective: Create a green infrastructure program to protect environmentally sensitive areas o Action Step 1: Develop land to disincentive allowed impervious cover. o Action Step 2: Expand and strengthen water quality regulations to achieve non-degradation (through expanding recharge zones and building in natural floodplains)
Objective: Integrate nature into the city o Action Step 1: Create transects that incentivize natural features such as rain gardens and natural drainage features o Action Step 2: Build room for local parks that include opportunities for urban farming
Develop infrastructure that reflects the communal qualities of the site
Objective: Infrastructure is made accessible to residents involved in agricultural activities o Action Step 1: Utilities are developed according to Austin’s regulatory framework o Action Step 2: Incentivize the use of sustainable and cost effective design features like rainwater harvesting, grey water irrigation, solar power, and energy efficient utilities
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Objective: Agricultural land is connected to the remaining site o Action Step 1: New roads align with local farms and agricultural development o Action Step 2: Water, electricity, and sewage is developed in a way that aligns with multifamily and single family neighborhood developments.
11.2.6 ECONOMIC Renew economic vitality through green jobs
Objective: 5% of jobs will support agricultural development and local food systems o Action Step 1: Develop space for workforce training through educational farmsteads where young residents can work seasonal jobs, residents can volunteer, and the community can interact with their local food system o Action Step 2: Build options for farmers to purchase housing on a community land trust model, ensuring affordable options for this workforce, so that they may live in the community that they work in
Objective: 5% of jobs will utilize light industry to support production of efficient and energy saving systems o Action Step 1: Develop building space for workforce training to build materials such as solar panels and wind development for the neighborhood o Action Step 2: Engage with the City of Austin to abide by Austin’s jobs plan in incentivizing development of job training programs
Ensure mixed use office space for economic growth
Objective: Retain 5% of mixed use development for office space o Action Step 1: Incentivize offices that locate to Austin by advertising their future access to a vibrant community with live, work benefits o Action Step 2: Retain office space in mixed use developments in areas located near land zoned for commercial development, parks, and civic centers.
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Objective: Identify and invest in local businesses that center around environmental sustainability and creative technology o Action Step 1: Simplify the development review process to yield responsive outcomes in small business permitting and development o Action Step 2: Provide financial tax credits for relevant businesses that engage in sustainability to locate to this region
11.3 SCENARIO OUTCOMES There are several outcomes of this site that make it unique in Austin’s larger context. The site would add about 40,000 people, and would fall at the high end for the population of a neighborhood center. How much of the land would remain undeveloped or would become urban agricultural land. Figure 22 is a future land use map for scenario 1.
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Figure 22: Land Use Mix Under Scenario 1 Figure 23: Land Use under Scenario 1
In generally this scenario would provide several unique benefits as compared to the trend scenario. First, the scenario provides opportunities for single family housing and retains the housing types that exist within the site, while significantly building upon the number of multifamily units in the site. In all, 43% of housing in the Wells Branch site will be multifamily units, allowing for a diversity of affordability options that push the site towards reaching Austin’s affordable housing goals.
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Second, the site will in general be greener and more environmentally sustainable. This scenario will see reductions in internal water usage (-69.9 G/day), waste water (-60.2 G/day), solid waste (-2.7 pounds/day), vehicle miles travelled (-8 VMT/day), and carbon dioxide output (-4.9 tons/year). However, some of these benefits are predicated on the usage of a medley of green infrastructure options within our site. Thus, if some of this green infrastructure does not get incorporated of these benefits may not be realized. Finally, this urban agriculture scenario will prompt the development of sustainable food systems. By allowing for the cultivation of crops within a local context and keeping most of the food within the local economy this design can prompt the development of more robust food systems. Figure 23 summarizes the positive outcomes of this scenario.
Figure 24: Positive Outcomes for Scenario 1
The limitations to the feasibility of the site include its cost in terms of green infrastructure. The costs required to realize the large amount of energy savings needed in the site would be massive. The large amount of population being added to our site in this scenario is also troubling. Undoubtedly, future growth will occur, however Austin should prioritize its infill development to avoid further decentralizing downtown. It is difficult to imagine a future that limits single family housing growth in this region. Our second scenario will address the future of the neighborhood where single family housing still remains dominant.
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12 The Accessible Employment Center (Smart, Complete, Community Design) The aim of this development scenario would be three-fold. First, the site would be developed as a major jobs center with at least one major employer in the site. Second, we would leverage emerging technologies such as the Internet of Things, the sharing economy etc. to shape the built environment within the site. This development would serve as a sort of incubator and test case for the smart cities of tomorrow. We would aim to develop a large town center in the area that the Imagine Austin comprehensive plan designates as a town center. Third, the jobs center would serve to anchor areas of mixed use development and a town center. This would generate a livework-play within the study site and allow residents to access myriad services with minimal to no driving. 12.1 THE VISION The essential vision for this scenario is a tech center that anchors a town center and various mixed-use development. This vision situates the site within the context which is why we do not propose high density develop in this scenario. It is unlikely, given the transportation options to the site and the physical location of this area, that the site would be able to support truly high density development.
Figure 25. Scenario 2 zoom
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11.2 THE GOALS, OBJECTIVES, AND ACTION STEPS This ambitious plan would prioritize the following set of targeted goals, objectives, and action steps to would help bring this vision to life.
Land use
Land use patterns shall promote a diversified economic base within the site o
o
Objective: 90% of residents shall have walking access to small-scale retail services
Action Step 1: Encourage mixed use development through rezoning of the parcels in the development area
Action Step 2: Increase the density of housing units in select areas to create walkability
Objective: 100% of residents shall have access to retail store within 1 mile of there home
Action Step 1: Ensure sufficient mixed-use zoning within the site to ensure retail access
Action Step 2: Zone for small scale neighborhood retail spaces and live/work spaces within the site
Land use patterns shall be attractive to large employers o
Objective: 20% of the land shall be devoted to large-scale employer usage
Action Step 1: Land use shall be rezoned to provide at least 30% of the land for commercial and office space
o
Action Step 2: The city shall provide tax inducements to attract business to the area
Objective: Land use patterns shall provide sufficient ancillary services to office space
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Action Step 1: Land shall be rezone such that office space is close to retail services
Action Step 2: The City shall provide tax incentives to attract retail services to the area
Transportation
Promote alternative, active transport modes as an alternative to driving o
Objective: All employment centers shall be accessible by public transit, shared mobility services or active transport modes
Action Step 1: Work with Capital Metro to encourage the rerouting of bus routes into the site
Action Step 2: Work with private, shared mobility services like Lime Bike and Bird to encourage the development of shared mobility services within the site
o
Objective: A majority of residents will have walking or biking access to retail services
Action Step 1: Ensure that zoning is consistent with this goal through the rezoning of various parcels
Action Step 2: Work with the Austin Department of Transportation, Public Works Department and private developers to encourage the development of bike lanes and quality sidewalks
Increase the accessibility of the site to all people o
Objective: The total miles of roads, sidewalks, and bike lanes in the site will be increased by at least 25%
Action Step 1: Ensure developers provide appropriate subdivision services like roads etc. within the housing developments
Action Step 2: Work with stakeholders like TXDOT etc. to provide appropriate funding for increasing roads etc. within the site
o
Objective: Ensure that the road network is well connected with as few cul-de-sacs as possible within the site
Action Step 1: Encourage developers to connect road networks between developments through tax incentives or other means
Action Step 2: Leverage additional financing from the state in build a more connected road network
Housing
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The site shall a diverse and attractive mixture of housing types o
Objective: At least 40% of the units in the site shall be multifamily units
Action Step 1: Use Low Income Housing Tax Credits to finance the development of affordable housing in the site
o
Action Step 2: Rezone portions of the site to encourage dense building types within parts of the site
Objective: At least 30% of the units shall be affordable housing units
Action Step 1: Use tax credits to induce the development of affordable housing units
Action Step 2: Give density bonuses to developers to encourage the development of affordable housing units
Housing units shall promote diversity and enhance the quality of life for residents o
Objective: Enhance the housing situation for both new and existing residents
Action Step 1: Ensure that some of the development within the site is directed towards to providing existing residents within the site with desirable services like parks etc.
o
Action Step 2: Engage the public in a participatory process to assess their desires for the site
Objective: Protect existing housing stock and avoid displacing existing residents as much as possible
Action Step 1: Avoid upzoning existing areas of housing to protect the housing stock
Action Step 2: Work with developers to encourage development in new areas away from existing housing stock
Environment
Green space will enhance the quality of life for residents and workers o
Objective: Sufficient open space shall be provide so that residents can pursue a diverse mixture of recreational opportunities
Action Step 1: Home developers shall be incentivized to build walking, biking, and hiking trail within their developments
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Action Step 2: 30% of the land shall be maintained as open space through zoning
Objective: Open space will be co-located with office space and home so that residents have good access to passive recreation opportunities
Action Step 1: Developers will be required to provide some green space within all new developments
Action Step 2: Zoning will be changed to support this policy objective
Green space and parks shall provide habitat for native plants and animals o
Objective: 10% of the green space in the site will be restored to a native condition
Action Step 1: The City of Austin will provide landscaping and ecological restoration services for some of the green space in the site area
o
Action Step 2: Landscaping of areas will be conducted using native plants to encourage habitat restoration
Objective: The majority of landscaping work shall be done with native plants
Action Step 1: Work with stakeholders like landscaping companies and developers to promote the use of native plants
Action Step 2: Conduct outreach efforts to the community to encourage the use of native plants in gardens etc.
Infrastructure
Infrastructure shall support the growth of the site as a tech center o
Objective: All residents and business shall have access to fiber optic internet
Action Step 1: Provide tax incentives for the creation of fiber optic internet in the area
Action Step 2: Work with stakeholder groups like AT&T and Grande to encourage the development of fiber optic internet in the site
o
Objective: Ensure a transit connection between the site and Tech Ridge
Action Step 1: Work with stakeholders such as Cap Metro to develop a bus route between Tech Ridge and the site
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Action Step 2: Work with business to encourage the development of shuttle service between the site and Tech Ridge
Infrastructure shall enhance the resilience and sustainability of the site o
Objective: Sufficient infrastructure will be provided to promote the growth of the site
Action Step 1: Work with the City of Austin to develop the infrastructure in the site
Action Step 2: Ensure developers comply with subdivision regulations to provide adequate infrastructure
Objective: Infrastructure will reduce CO2 emissions over the trend scenario
Action Step 1: Work with developers to incorporate green building techniques into the buildings on site
Action Step 2: Work with various stakeholders to create micro-grids for power supply whenever possible
Economic
The site will be a major jobs center o
o
Objective: Site shall provide at least 20k jobs for the City of Austin
Action Step 1: Work with stakeholders to attract employers to the site
Action Step 2: Conduct marketing campaigns to make the site attractive to potential employers
Objective: The site will have at least one major employer located within it
Action Step 1: Work with various companies to attract them to the site
Action Step 2: Provide tax incentives to companies to make the site as attractive as possible for employers
The site shall contain a diverse mixture of job types that provides economic opportunity for a variety of people o
Objective: The site will have no more than 50% of its jobs concentrated in anyone sector
Action Step 1: Ensure that zoning is sufficiently diverse to encourage a range of employment opportunities across the site
o
Action Step 2: Work with companies to attract a diverse range of employers to the site
Objective: The jobs housing balance ratio will be increased from 1.1 in the trend scenario to at least 1.3 in this scenario
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Action Step 1: Rezone portions of the site to encourage mixed use development
Action Step 2: Encourage more renting to provide more housing in the site
12.3 SCENARIO OUTCOMES The primary means through which the goals of this scenario are achieved is through densification. Figure 25 shows the proposed future land use map. The primary way that the objectives of this scenario are achieved are through up zoning and densification. Compared to the trend scenario this scenario aims to densify along the primary corridors of the study site. Additionally, by working with major stakeholders a major employer will likely be attracted to site. The primary focus of this site is the tech center, a “Tech Ridge lite”. This land use pattern was developed with aim of creating a medium density employment center within the site. Adjacent to this major employment will be mixed use development and town center. The tec h center itself does not aim to be a work live area, but with the adjacent town center and mixed-use development the site can be become fairly dense. Figure 26 shows the proposed land use mix under this scenario. As one can see the proportion of single family homes has been severely reduced and the amount of office, light industrial, and tech center space has increased.
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Figure 26: Land Use Mix Under Scenario 2
Figure 27: Future Land Use for Scenario 2
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The primary, positive outcomes of this scenarios are as follows. First, the site will become more walkable and transit friendly. This scenario will see a reduction in the total VMTs in the site. Second this scenario would produce more than 25,000 more jobs as compared to the trends scenario. This would allow the site to function as a major employment center. Additionally, the jobs housing balance would be enhanced moving from about 1.1 in the trends scenario to at least 1.5 under this schema. Moreover, the employment mix of the would of the site would be improved with the types and numbers of jobs being distributed more evenly, Finally, due to the densification of the site there would be net reductions in tons of CO2 produced in the site, water usage etc. Figure 27 shows the positive outcomes for this site.
Figure 28: Positive Outcomes for Scenario 2
The primary limitation to this scenario is attracting a large employer to the site. This may or may not be possible. If a large employer cannot be attracted to the site it would be hard to make this type of scenario work. One possible option, if a large employer cannot be attracted, would be to try to attract several smaller employers. The second major limiting factor for this site would the lack of public transit. In order to make this scenario work we will have to engage with Capital Metro and potentially private ride sharing providers to provide adequate transit to the site.
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13 Conclusion The Wells Branch site can be imagined in many ways - serving as an organically designed ecological enclave or a practical jobs center. Either way, there are challenges that exist in posing new development scenarios against an all likely trend. The site as a whole is unique to the Austin landscape, and can draw upon its features as an overwhelmingly agricultural community with few people and infrastructural nodes to cement itself as a neighborhood center in the future.
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