Financial analysis by Poujoulat

Poujoulat Building Prod. & Materials / France Document generated on the 11/01/2013

Pull out all the “wood” stops KEY DATA

Buy

Upside potential : 46.6 %

Target Price (6 months)

49.7

Share Price

€ 33.9

Market Capitalisation €M Price Momentum Extremes 12Months

67.4 STRONG

28.8

38.5

12/10A

12/11A

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E

Adjusted P/E (x)

5.18

7.35

9.61

6.67

5.83

Dividend yield (%)

2.92

2.20

1.86

1.84

2.03

EV/EBITDA(R) (x)

3.96

6.08

6.70

5.97

5.42

Adjusted EPS (€)

4.47

4.16

3.49

5.08

5.82

Growth in EPS (%)

8.54

-6.80

-16.1

45.3

14.6

Dividend (€)

0.68

0.63

0.69

151,522

175,548

192,250

222,000

237,000

5.82

4.57

3.39

4.48

4.80

Sales (€th) Net result margin (%) Attributable net profit (€th)

8,737

8,144

6,834

9,933

11,380

ROE (after tax) (%)

15.8

12.9

10.2

13.9

14.1

Gearing (%)

39.2

52.1

72.9

75.6

71.7

Last forecasts updated on the 11/01/2013 Benchmarks

Values (€)

Upside

Weight

68.9

103 %

35 %

DCF NAV/SOTP per share

34.7

20 %

EV/Ebitda

Peers

45.2

33 %

20 %

P/E

Peers

59.9

77 %

10 %

Dividend Yield

Peers

15.3

-55 %

10 %

P/Book

Peers

41.3

22 %

49.7

47 %

100 %

TARGET PRICE

Conflicts of interest Corporate broking

Trading in corporate shares

Analyst ownership

Advising of corporate (strategy, marketing, debt, etc)

Research paid for by corporate

Analyst

YES

Provision of corporate access paid for by corporate

Link between AlphaValue and a banking entity

Brokerage activity at AlphaValue

Gaetan Dupont buildingmaterials@alphavalue.eu

www.alphavalue.com +33 (0) 1 70 61 10 50 sales@alphavalue.eu

Contract research, paid for by the above corporate entity. Equity research methods and procedures are as applied by AlphaValue. Target prices and opinions are thus exclusively determined by those methods and procedures.

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

Updates 11/01/2013 A sensible acquisition to start the year. M&A /Corp. Action

Fact On 9 January, Poujoulat announced that it had acquired VA STAAL, a Danish company and a European leader for industrial steel stacks with a unique know-how in large size projects (up to 6m diameter and 130m high).

Analysis Thanks to this acquisition, the Poujoulat group becomes the European leader in large size projects with total turnover of around €35m in this business and a European market share of more than 20%. Bringing together the companies BEIRENS (manufacturing and installation of industrial stacks), MCC21 (audit, maintenance and services) and now VL STAAL, the Poujoulat group's industrial steel stacks division will offer a comprehensive range of products and services, generating 60% of its sales in export markets (versus c.15% for the Group as a whole). In this segment, Poujoulat will now lead the French, Scandinavian and German markets while also having a presence in Benelux, the UK, Ukraine, Russia, the Middle East and North Africa. In 2012, VL STAAL generated sales of around €15m and a net margin of over 10%, comfortably above that of the Group which should approach 4% in 2013e (without VL STAAL). Other than this boost to sales (+7% of external growth in 2013 thanks to this acquisition alone) and the associated expansion in margins (around +45bp over 2013), the synergies expected for the Group should also be significant.

Impact We will upgrade our forecasts to take into account the additional sales and the improvement in the Group's profitability following this acquisition.

11/01/2013 Target upgrade by 9.6% Change in EPS

2012 : € 3.49 vs 3.52 2013 : € 5.08 vs 4.22

-0.69 % +20.3 %

We have upgraded our 2013 (and 2014) EPS forecasts following the Poujoulat group’s acquisition of Danish company VL STAAL, which should generate 2013 turnover of around €16m for a net profit approaching €1.7m. We estimate the additional sales and net margin for 2013 associated with this transaction to be, respectively,+7% and +45bp.

Change in DCF

€ 68.9 vs 63.0

+9.33 %

January 11 2013

Page 2

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Achat)

Matériaux de construction / France

Mises à jour 27/11/2012 Q3 acceleration in activity Publication Res./CA

Actualité In Q3 12, Poujoulat reported sales up by 4.2% to €43.9m, taking the sales growth over nine months to +6.3%, to €125m.

Analyse Q3 sales growth slowed relative to H1 (+7.5%), but note that the good first half performance was exclusively based on a very strong Q1(+14.5%), whereas Poujoulat had posted a marked slowdown in its Q1 sales (-0.5%). This thus represents good news in that the sales trend has again been positive over the past few months. The rebound in sales over this quarter was mainly in "France" (+5.7%, to €38.2m), whereas "export" activity saw a significant slowdown (-5.3%, to €5.7m). Against a depressed economic backdrop, the Group continues to gain market shares and pursue its international development, something which constitutes, alongside energy efficiency and wood energy, one of the Group's major future growth relays, explaining the substantial investment over the 2011-2013 period. Multiple marketing and commercial initiatives - and notably participation in the Vendée Globe - will also continue to drive sales and facilitate the launch of new products, innovation remaining at the heart of the Group's strategy. The pick-up in activity as of October currently underpins a growth forecast of around 10% for the full year 2012 (management guidance at the end of H1 was for growth of between +5% and 10%), with a H2 2012 result close to that of 2011, which will ultimately lead to significantly lower earnings.

Impact Little new news barring the more optimistic tone from management on the growth in full year sales. We remain buyers of the stock.

11 janvier 2013

Page 3

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

Target Price & Opinion

Stock Price and Target Price

Earnings Per Share & Opinion

January 11 2013

Page 4

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

Businesses & Trends

Businesses & Trends Poujoulat is the leading European manufacturer of chimneys and flues for houses/apartments (65% of sales), industry (20% of sales) and public authorities (15% of sales). The Group is active both on the new construction and renovation segments, with an upmarket positioning as regards all customer profiles, particularly specialised distributors (70% of sales) and builders/installers (15%). In terms of products, insulated ducts accounted for 44% of the Niort-based group’s sales, single wall flue pipes and flexible ducts represent 18%, roof outlets 15%, energy 13% and industrial chimneys 10%. In France, where more than 85% of Poujoulat’s business is generated (chimneys are voluminous products making transport costs very expensive), chimney sales grew substantially at the beginning of the 2000s, the market registering growth of nearly 95% between 2002 and 2006, driven by a number of favourable elements. Among these inciting factors, the creation of a tax credit on the purchase of wood-burning domestic heating appliances (from 40% in 2005 it was pushed up to 50% in 2006, before being progressively reduced since then, standing at 15% in 2012), the dynamism of the home maintenance market, boosted by a reduction in VAT to 5.5% on home improvements and alterations (taken back up to 7% in 2012), the rise in the cost of fossil fuels used for domestic heating (oil and gas) and a broader ecological awareness which explains the incitement of public authorities in favour of renewable energy producers (NB: renewable energies only represented 18% of world energy consumption in 2011, 11% for fuel wood alone, 4% for hydroelectricity and 1.5% for biomass/solar energy). Between 2007 and 2009, a period marked by new thermal regulations and a reduction in tax incentives, the fireplace market in France evolved towards more technical products. That is when Poujoulat opted to diversify into renewable energies – mainly into wood fuels, the prime renewable energy source used in buildings – to the point of becoming one of the leading players on the “fuel wood” market (wood pellets, densified logs and firewood). Today, it is estimated that 40 million cubic metres of wood are consumed each year in France, knowing that 6 million French households use wood as a source of energy. It is worth noting that Poujoulat’s first “premium” log factory, located in the department of the Indre (Bois Factory 36) has an annual capacity of 150,000 cubic metres. Very shortly, there will be two additional factories, one in the Loire (Bois Factory 42), the other in the Haute-Saône (Bois Factory 70), giving the company a total capacity of 350,000 cubic metres by the end of 2013. Established in 1950, and initially specialised in industrial sheet metal processing, Poujoulat moved into manufacturing stove pipes as from the 1960s, then into smoke evacuation ducts when, in 1975, the company was taken over by Yves Coirier (current Chairman of the Supervisory Board). In 1988, the company was floated on the Stock Exchange. At the beginning of the 90s, the company embarked on a process of external growth in France (acquiring Tôlerie Forézienne and Westaflex Bâtiment) and internationally, especially in Belgium (Poujoulat BeLux) and the United Kingdom (Poujoulat UK). In 2001, Poujoulat acquired the company Beirens. Between 2002 and 2006, Poujoulat recorded dual-digit sales growth, boosted by a favourable environment. 2007 was marked by a new phase in the company’s operational diversification with the creation of Euro Energies (wood fuel trading), which constituted a major turnaround in the development of the Group. Two years later, the German company LIVE GmbH (manufacturing and trading in metal conduits) was acquired. Between 2011 and 2012, Poujoulat successively launched Bois Factory 36, Bois Factory 70, Solaires-Energies (marketing photovoltaic systems) and Bois Factory 42, confirming its determination to intensify its presence in the renewable energy sector. From a more operational point of view, despite market conditions proving difficult in 2009 and a context marked by the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis, the instability of raw material costs and particularly mild temperatures, the Group has still managed to achieve a dual-digit pace of growth (+10.8% in 2010 and +15.9% in 2011), mainly due to the high performance of the “Wood and renewable energies” division, up 30% over the previous financial year. This division now accounts for some 8% of sales. Guidance for 2012 comprises annual sales growth close to 10%, a significant slowdown in construction and public contracts likely to be more than offset by the positive effects on Poujoulat’s business of the high prices of fossil fuels and the implementation of new thermal regulations. Looking ahead to 2013-2014, a significant proportion of sales growth should come from the “Wood and renewable energies” business, following the major investments made in this area in the period 2010 to 2014. It should also be noted that Poujoulat is in the process of setting up in China, with the aim of being operational by 2014, this market representing virtually half of the world industrial chimney market.

January 11 2013

Page 5

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

Businesses & Trends

Divisional Breakdown Of Revenues Change 12E/11 Sector

12/11A

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E €th

Fabrication et négoce de con... Bois et énergie solaire

Advanced Materials Advanced Materials

of % total

Change 13E/12E €th

of % total

200,508

207,630

232,545

240,555

7,122

43 %

24,915

84 %

13,432

21,148

30,525

41,475

7,716

46 %

9,377

32 %

Other

-38,392

-36,528

-41,070

-45,030

1,864

11 %

-4,542

-15 %

Total sales

175,548

192,250

222,000

237,000

16,702

100 %

29,750

100 %

(1)

Key exposures

Start-up of Solaires-Energies business activity

Sales by geography Revenues

Costs

Equity

Dollar

0.0 %

France

Emerging currencies

0.5 %

0.0 %

Belgium

4.1 %

3.1 %

Europe

6.2 %

Other

2.1 %

84.5 %

We address exposures (eg. how much of the turnover is exposed to the $ ) rather than sensitivities (say, how much a 5% move in the $ affects the bottom line). This is to make comparisons easier and provides useful tools when extracting relevant data. Actually, the subject is rather complex on the ground. The default position is one of an investor managing in €. An investor in £ will obviously not react to a £ based stock trading partly in € as would a € based investor. In addition, certain circumstances can prove difficult to unravel such as for eg. a € based investor confronted to a Swiss company reporting in $ but with a quote in CHF... Sales exposure is probably straightforward but one has to be careful with deep cyclicals. Costs exposure is a bit less easy to determine (we do not allow for hedges as they can only be postponing the day of reckoning). How much of the equity is exposed to a given subject is rarely straightforward but can be quite telling In addition, subjects are frequently intertwined. A $ exposure may encompass all revenues in $ pegged currencies and an emerging currency exposure is likely to include $ pegged currencies as well. Exposure to global warming issues is frequently indirect and may require to stretch a bit imagination.

January 11 2013

Page 6

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

Money Making

Money Making Historically, Poujoulat SA, the parent company, generates some 70% of net income, with net margins of between 4.5% and 5.50%. The second largest contributor to results is the Tôlerie Forézienne subsidiary (manufacturing of rigid metallic conduits for the French market), which registers some of the Group’s highest margins - Tolerie Forézienne and Poujoulat BeLux being the only two subsidiaries with margins near on 10% - followed by Westaflex Bâtiment (manufacturing of flexible metallic conduits for the French market), whose margins are significantly lower, at around 4%. The “Wood and renewable energies” activities are currently generating losses because of particularly high depreciation and factory openings which are progressive, so the business is not yet operating at full capacity. This business activity essentially involves dealing with and marketing to professionals who sell to private individuals (professional networks) – under the “Woodstock” and “Crépito” brand names – high-performance fuel wood for wood-fuelled heating appliances. It all starts with a rigorous selection of the wood from suppliers, followed by drying and preparation processes. The products are then packaged or shipped in bulk, knowing that production and storage capacities are sized to guarantee fuel availability all-year round. These products are permanently quality checked in the CERIC laboratory, which is the benchmark in the combustion of wood fuel. Since end-2011, Euro Energies is operating 3 high-performance fuel wood production sites: BF36 in the Indre, BF42 in the Loire and BF70 in Haute-Saône. This “Wood and renewable energies” activity, destined to achieve higher capacity over the next 3 years (according to management, within this time frame it should represent around 25% of the activity), recorded its heaviest loss in 2011 (€724k at the end of the first full financial year of Bois Factory 36 which delivered a loss of €575k, 2/3 of which coming from depreciation expenses). As fulfilling management’s ambitions regarding this activity is a crucial factor in the valuation of the Group, we have chosen to adopt a somewhat conservative attitude by estimating a net profit of about €1m in 2014, which would represent c. 10% of total Group net profit. Overall, Poujoulat Group’s net margins have proved relatively resilient throughout the crisis, moving up from 4.9% in 2007 to an average 5.9% in 2009 and 2010. Conversely, 2011 saw margins fall back quite significantly due to the soaring price of raw materials – the main raw material used is stainless steel, which represents about 50% of the costs of goods sold – but also, and especially, the increased investments - €23.5m in 2011 compared with €8.5m in 2010 and €4.5m in 2009 – and substantial commercial investments. In the long run, and to fully benefit from the market’s growth potential, sector players will need to pursue their efforts, specifically focusing on the post-tax credit scenario (as from 31/12/2015), which instigated the boom in sales as from the middle of the previous decade. The two major challenges will therefore be to maintain profitability in order to underpin innovation (with metal and energy raw material prices rising, this forces chimney manufacturers to pass on these increases in their selling prices, which equally impacts sales volumes), but also to guarantee coherence within the sector, as chimney retailing is extremely fragmented in France, effectively representing the weak link in the manufacturers’ value chain (the predominance of multi-brand sales outlets adversely affects the dissemination of brands for which the identity tends to become an overriding competitive advantage).

Divisional NET RESULT Change 12E/11 12/11A

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E €th

Fabrication et négoce de conduits et cheminées métalliques

of % total

Change 13E/12E €th

of % total

8,904

8,347

10,536

11,096

-557

37 %

2,189

64 %

Bois et énergie solaire

-724

-1,321

-24.9

939

-597

40 %

1,296

38 %

Other/cancellations

-161

-505 (1)

-572

-654

-344

23 %

-67

-2 %

8,019

6,521

9,940

11,380

-1,498

100 %

3,419

100 %

Total

Start-up of Solaires-Energies business activity

Divisional NET RESULT margin Fabrication et négoce de conduits et cheminées ... Bois et énergie solaire Total

January 11 2013

12/11A

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E

4.44 %

4.02 %

4.53 %

4.61 %

-5.39 %

-6.24 %

-0.08 %

2.26 %

4.57 %

3.39 %

4.48 %

4.80 %

Page 7

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

Debt

Debt Poujoulat is showing net debt of around €50m but it is important to note that only half of this figure constitutes genuine debt, insofar as some €30m is used to pay suppliers cash in return for a discount (tactical choice by management, in the knowledge that the discount rate is 7x higher than the cost of short-term funding, which enables Poujoulat to generate financial income almost equal to the total cost of its debt). As a result, the Poujoulat Group has almost no trade payables (around €10m). 2011 marked an important stage in Poujoulat’s development. This is because, its industrial investments, which amounted to about 8% of sales on average over the previous 5 years, soared to almost 14% of sales (€24m), and should remain buoyant in 2012 (nearly 9% of sales), especially in order to get the “Wood and renewable energies” activity up to full steam, which already represented more than half of the investment figure in 2011. The investment programme, whose 3 key focus areas are energy efficiency, renewable energies and exports (market entry into China), should ease back by end-2014. At the same time, the WCR has also increased significantly since 2010, mainly due to the increase in the “stocks” item (60% of this increase is due to raw materials and fuels), but also to the “trade receivables” item, in a context of an increase in average payment terms and relatively long supply lead-times. The combination of these two elements – high investments and increase in WCR – is the reason for 2011’s higher debt ratios, gearing above 50% (against less than 40% in 2010), but especially the net debt/EBITDA ratio at more than 2.5x (against 1.3x in 2010, the slight decrease in 2011 EBITDA accentuating the effect slightly). As dividends were no longer covered by the FCF, and the investment programme had not been completed, the company decided to suspend its uninterrupted dividend growth policy, despite a particularly low payout (historically around 15%). Nevertheless, gross debt – evenly balanced between short and long-term debt – remains at a reasonable level. EBITDA coverage of financial expenses therefore exceeds 10x. It should also be specified that the average maturity of this gross debt is approximately 4.5 years, which is a relatively short maturity for an industrial business. The Group works with diversified funding sources. As at 31/12/2011, Poujoulat had €38m worth of short-term credit lines available.

Funding - Liquidity 12/11A

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E

EBITDA

€th

17,597

17,491

21,851

23,844

Funds from operations (FFO)

€th

13,529

7,679

16,609

17,905

Ordinary shareholders' equity

€th

66,757

67,114

75,520

85,347

Gross debt

€th

60,746

69,746

75,746

74,746

o/w Less than 1 year - Gross debt

€th

29,593 (2)

33,977 (2)

36,900 (2)

36,413 (2)

o/w 1 to 5 year - Gross debt

€th

25,774

29,593

32,138

31,714

o/w Beyond 5 years - Gross debt

€th

5,379

6,176

6,707

6,619

+ Gross Cash

€th

15,186

17,430

13,878

14,294

= Net debt / (cash)

€th

45,560

52,316

61,868

60,452

Other financing

€th

60,746

69,746

75,746

74,746

Undrawn committed financing facilities

€th

38,000

Gearing (at book value)

52.1

72.9

75.6

71.7

Adj. Net debt/EBITDA(R)

2.59

2.99

2.83

2.54

Adjusted Gross Debt/EBITDA(R)

3.60

4.12

3.58

3.24

Interest cover (x)

37.2

17.4

44.2

52.1

FFO/Net debt

29.7

14.7

26.8

29.6

(Gross cash+ "cash" FCF+undrawn)/ST debt

1.19

0.35

0.15

0.46

"Cash" FCF/ST debt

-0.60

-0.16

-0.23

0.07

January 11 2013

The < 1 year high debt policy is based on a management choice in the current context of very low rates (cash payment to suppliers in return for discount).

Page 8

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

Valuation

Valuation Due to the absence of real comparables for Poujoulat’s activities, the peers used in our valuation based on the comparables valuation method come from very disparate sectors such as: Construction & Construction Materials, Non-Food Retail, Capital Goods,… Our DCF model is based on an average growth of sales of 5% and an EBITDA of 5.75%, hence meaning that EBITDA margin should reach 11% by 2022, which in our view is conservative given the future high margins of the “Wood and renewable energies” activity. Furthermore, the currently very high CAPEX figures should progressively be reduced in the years to come (investment peak in 2011), likewise for the frequency of acquisitions. For our Sum of the Parts valuation, we value the two activities by using a price-earnings ratio of 10x for the "Chimneys and associated products” business and a price of €16m for the "Wood and renewable energies” division, which corresponds to the price at which the capital increase was made. At end-December 2012, a set of quoted peers comprising companies such as Centrotec (13.5x), Rougier (23.7x), Somfy (13.6x), Cogra (23.6x), Moulinvest (14.1x) and Sika (22.5x) is trading at significantly higher price-earnings levels (pre-exceptional PE). These ratios will apply to the average result for the years 2012 to 2014 for the “Chimney” activity and to a conservative 2014 result for the “Wood and renewable energies” activity”.

Valuation Summary Benchmarks

Values (€)

Upside

Weight

DCF

68.9

103 %

35 %

NAV/SOTP per share

34.7

20 %

EV/Ebitda

Peers

45.2

33 %

20 %

P/E

Peers

59.9

77 %

10 %

Dividend Yield

Peers

15.3

-55 %

10 %

P/Book

Peers

41.3

22 %

49.7

47 %

Target Price

Comparison based valuation Computed on 18 month forecasts

P/E (x)

Ev/Ebitda (x)

P/Book (x)

Yield(%)

Peers ratios

11.8

6.92

1.05

4.18

Poujoulat's ratios

6.69

5.91

0.86

1.89

0.00 %

Default comparison based valuation (€)

59.9

45.2

41.3

15.3

Saint-Gobain

11.1

6.84

0.92

3.89

Legrand

15.4

8.72

2.40

3.42

UPM-Kymmene

10.4

6.03

0.62

7.11

Imerys

11.0

6.54

1.44

3.52

Premium

January 11 2013

Page 9

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

DCF

DCF Valuation Per Share WACC

Avg net debt (cash) at book value

€th

57,092

PV of cashflow FY1-FY11

€th

44,429

7.73

Provisions

€th

2,310

FY11CF

€th

17,697

Unrecognised actuarial losses (gains)

€th

0.00

Normalised long-term growth"g"

Financial assets at market price

€th

0.00

Terminal value

€th

308,700

Minorities interests (fair value)

€th

-3,130

PV terminal value

€th

146,577

Equity value

€th

134,734

PV terminal value in % of total value

Number of shares

1,956

Total PV

€th

Implied equity value per share

€

2.00

76.7 191,006

68.9

Assessing The Cost Of Capital Synthetic default risk free rate

4.00

Company debt spread

150

Target equity risk premium

5.00

Marginal Company cost of debt

5.50

30.0

Company beta (leveraged)

1.33

Company gearing at market value

78.9

Company market gearing

44.1

Required return on geared equity

10.7

Cost of debt

3.85

Cost of ungeared equity

8.36

WACC

7.73

Tax advantage of debt finance (normalised) Average debt maturity

Year

Sector asset beta

0.87

Debt beta

0.30

Market capitalisation

€th

66,289

Net debt (cash) at book value

€th

52,316

Net debt (cash) at market value

€th

50,082

DCF Calculation 12/11A Sales

€th

EBITDA

€th

EBITDA Margin

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E Growth

175,548 192,250 222,000 237,000

12/15E

12/22E

5.00 % 248,850 350,157

17,597

17,491

21,851

23,844

10.0

9.10

9.84

10.1

Change in WCR

€th

-7,932

3,908

-8,418

-4,244

Total operating cash flows (pre tax)

€th

9,723

15,399

13,433

19,600

Corporate tax

€th

-4,032

-3,212

-4,896

-5,605

2.00 %

Net tax shield

€th

-99.9

-206

-134

-131

0.00 %

-131

Capital expenditure

€th

-23,278 -17,000 -16,500 -11,000 -3.50 % -10,615

-8,272

Capex/Sales

Pre financing costs FCF (for DCF purposes) Various add backs (incl. R&D, etc.) for DCF purposes Free cash flow adjusted

€th

5.75 %

2.00 %

25,215

37,293

10.1

10.7

-4,329

-4,973

20,886

32,320

-5,717

-6,567

-13.3

-8.84

-7.43

-4.64

-4.27

-2.36

-17,687

-5,018

-8,096

2,864

4,423

17,350

€th €th

-17,687

-5,018

-8,096

2,864

4,423

17,350

Discounted free cash flows

€th

-17,687

-5,018

-7,515

2,467

3,537

8,238

Invested capital

€

117

123

141

149

144

112

January 11 2013

Page 10

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

NAV/SOTP (edit)

NAV/SOTP Calculation % owned

Valuation technique

Multiple used 10.0

Cheminées et produit...

100 %

Bois et énergies reno...

100 %

Adj. historical price

91,500

In currency % of gross per share assets (€) 91,500 46.8 90.1 %

16,000

Valuation at 100% (€th)

Stake valuation (€th)

8.18

Net debt of the parent company Poujoulat SA

Provisions and minority interests

15.8 %

Operating revenues Ebitda Ebitda margin Operating profit Operating margin Adj. Attrib. Net profit Free cash flow France Belgium UK Europe Other Fabrication et négoce... Bois et énergie solaire Other Total sales NET RESULT Analysis Fabrication et négoce... Fabrication et négoce... Bois et énergie solaire Bois et énergie solaire Other/cancellations Other/cancellations Total Total NET RESULT margin Sales Sales growth CONSOLIDATED P&... Sales Sales Sales Adjusted P/E Change in sales Change in sales Sales per employee Sales per staff Staff costs Purchases and extern... Staff costs Staff costs per emplo... Change in staff costs Change in staff costs Change in staff costs Staff costs per emplo... Operating lease pay... Change in unit cost of... Cost of sales/COGS (... EBITDA EBITDA

January 11 2013

Page 11

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

NAV/SOTP (edit) EBITDA EBITDA EBITDA of which controlled ... EBITDA(R) EBITDA(R) margin EBITDA(R) margin EBITDA(R) margin EBITDA(R) per emp... Depreciation Depreciation Depreciation Depreciations/Sales Amortisation of which amortisatio... Additions to provisions Reduction of provisions Underlying operating ... Underlying operating ... Underlying operating ... Underlying operating ... Underlying operating ... Other income/expens... Other inc./ exp. (non ... Mark to market on var... Operating profit (EBIT) Operating profit (EBIT) Interest expenses Earnings from joint ve... Actual dividends fro... Actual accrued cas... Impairment charges/g... Operating profit (EBIT) of which effectively... Financial income Other financial incom... Net financial expenses Net financial expense Net financial expense Net financial expense of which related to p... of which related to p... of which related to ... Pre-tax profit before e... Exceptional items an... Exceptional items & o... Exceptional items & o... of which cash (cost)... Current tax Impact of tax loss carr... Deferred tax Corporate tax Corporate tax Corporate tax Tax rate Net margin Equity associates Equity associates

January 11 2013

Page 12

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

NAV/SOTP (edit) Equity associates Equity associates Actual dividends rec... Actual dividends rec... Minority interests Minority interests Minority interests Minority interests Actual dividends pai... Actual dividends pai... Income from disconti... Attributable net profit Impairment charges/g... Other adjustments Adjusted attributable ... Adjusted attributable ... Adjusted attributable ... Adjusted attributable ... Dividend yield Funds from operation... EBITDA EBITDA Interest expense savi... Fully diluted adjusted ... NOPAT NOPAT NOPAT NOPAT CASH FLOW STAT... Change in WCR Change in WCR EBITDA Change in WCR Actual div. received fr... Actual dividends recei... of which (increases)/... of which increases i... of which increases i... of which (increases)/... of which increases/(... of which increases i... of which increases/(... Paid taxes Paid taxes Actual dividends recei... Exceptional items Exceptional items Paid taxes Exceptional items Other operating cash ... Other operating cash ... Total operating cash f... Total operating cash f... Other operating cash ... Total operating cash f... Capital expenditure Capital expenditure Capital expenditure

January 11 2013

Page 13

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

NAV/SOTP (edit) Total investment flows Total investment flows Capital expenditure Net investments in sh... Capex as a % of depr... Net investments in sh... Other investment flows Net interest expense Net interest expense Total investment flows Dividends (parent co... Dividends (parent co... Net interest expense Of which (acquisition... Of which (acquisition... of which cash intere... Dividends (parent co... Dividends to minoritie... Dividends to minoritie... New shareholders' eq... Dividends (parent co... New shareholders' eq... Dividends to minoritie... Dividends to minoritie... New shareholders' eq... New shareholders' eq... of which (acquisition... Roe (return on equity... Shareholders funds (... Net debt Average gearing Capex Change in gross debt Total financial flows Total financial flows Other financial flows Change in cash positi... Change in cash positi... Change in net financi... Free cash flow (pre di... Free cash flow (pre di... Total financial flows Change in scope of c... ---Change in cash positi... Change in net debt p... Free cash flow (pre di... Capitalised R&D Goodwill Ordinary shareholder... BALANCE SHEET Contracts & Rights (in... Other intangible assets Goodwill Goodwill Goodwill Total intangible Total intangible

January 11 2013

Page 14

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

NAV/SOTP (edit) Total intangible Concession intangibl... Tangible fixed assets Other intangible assets Tangible fixed assets Tangible fixed assets Tangible fixed assets Financial fixed assets... Financial fixed assets... Financial fixed assets Financial hedges (LT ... Other financial assets... of which available f... WCR WCR WCR WCR of which trade & rec... of which inventories ... of which payables (+) of which other curre... Other current assets Other assets Other assets of which tax assets (+) Total assets (net of s... Total assets (net of s... Total assets (net of s... Total assets (net of s... Ordinary shareholder... Quasi Equity & Prefer... Ordinary shareholder... Ordinary shareholder... Ordinary shareholder... Gross debt Pension ratio o/w Less than 1 yea... o/w 1 to 5 year - Gr... of which Y+2 of which Y+3 of which Y+4 of which Y+5 o/w Beyond 5 years... Preference shares Quasi Equity & Prefer... Minority interests Provisions for pensions Minority interests Minority interests Minority interests Provisions for pensions Provisions for pensions Provisions for pensions Other provisions for ri... Other provisions for ri... Other provisions for ri... Deferred tax liabilities Total provisions for ri...

January 11 2013

Page 15

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

NAV/SOTP (edit) Total provisions for ri... Tax liabilities Tax liabilities Other liabilities Other liabilities Other liabilities Net debt / (cash) Total liabilities and sh... Net debt (cash) Net debt (cash) Net debt (cash) + Gross Cash = Net debt / (cash) ---Total liabilities and ... Total liab. and shareh... Average net debt / (c... Bank borrowings Issued bonds Financial leases liabili... Mortgages Other financing of which commercial... ------Parent company net d... Operating leases and ... Off B/S business guar... Contingent considerat... Y-1 shareholders' eq... + Net profit of year - Dividends (parent cy) + Additions to equity o/w reduction (addit... o/w stock option pr... - Unrecognised actua... + Comprehensive inc... Comprehensive inco... = Year end sharehold... EV/EBITDA(R) CAPITAL EMPLOYED Capital employed afte... Capital employed afte... EV/EBIT (underlying ... Market Cap EV/Sales PROFITABILITY AN... EV/Invested capital ROE (after tax) ROE (after tax)

Market cap ROCE ROCE (Nopat/net ca... Gearing (at book val... Gearing (at book val... Europe North America

January 11 2013

Page 16

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

NAV/SOTP (edit) + Provisions (includin... + Unrecognised actua... Adj. Net debt/EBITD... Adj. Net debt/EBITD... + Net debt at year end + Leases debt equival... Interest cover (x) Interest cover (x) VALUATION RATIOS - Provisions for reserv... - Financial fixed asset... EV/EBITDA(R) Reference P/E (benc... Reference P/E (benc... + Minority interests (f... = Enterprise Value Free cash flow yield Free cash flow yield Undrawn committed fi... PER SHARE DATA Adjusted EPS (bfr gwi... Growth in EPS Reported EPS Net dividend per share Free cash flow per sh... Operating cash flow p... Book value per share Restated NAV per sh... ---Number of ordinary s... Share class 2 Treasury stock (year ... Number of shares net... Number of shares net... No. of shares net of tr... Share class 3 Share class 4 Ordinaries to class ... ROCE Ordinaries to class ... Ordinaries to class ... Number of equivalent ... Number of shares ma... Treasury stock (year ... Number of diluted sha... Number of diluted sha... Benchmark EPS EPS before gwill amo... Benchmark EPS Number of shares net... Number of common s... Growth in EPS Net dividend per share Dividend Conversion of debt i... Goodwill per share (di... EPS after goodwill a... Settlement of casha...

January 11 2013

Page 17

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

NAV/SOTP (edit) Probable settlement... Reported EPS Book value per share Other commitments... Increase in shares ou... Restated NAV per sh... Restated NAV per sh... Operating Cash flow ... Number of diluted sha... ---Adjusted EPS Goodwill per share (di... EPS after goodwill a... Net dividend per share Net dividend per share EPS before goodwill ... Actual payment Preferential dividend Payout ratio P/Book P/Book Adjusted P/E Dividend yield Reported P/E Dividend yield Sales EV/EBITDA(R) EV CALCULATION P/Book Net result margin Dividend yield Market cap Market cap + Provisions Provisions Attributable net profit Preferred dividend yield Free cash flow yield Average stock price Average preferred sto... Unrecognised acturial... + Unrecognised acturi... ROCE (NOPAT+leas... ---Goodwill Accumulated good... All intangible assets Accumulated intang... Financial hedges (LT ... Capitalised R&D PV of non-capitalised ... Other fixed assets Accumulated depre... WCR Capital employed bef... Other assets Net debt at year end

January 11 2013

Page 18

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

NAV/SOTP (edit) + Net debt at year end ---Fabrication et négoce... Bois et énergie solaire Other Total capital employed

CAPITAL INTENSITY Operating cash flow (... Reinvestment rate (ca... Capital payout ratio (... Unrecognised actuari... Leases debt equivalent + Leases debt equival... Financial fixed assets... - Financial fixed asset... ROE (after tax) ROE (after tax) ROCE (NOPAT/(net) ... Capital employed afte... + Minority interests (f... Minority interests (fair... EV = EV Gearing (at book value) Gearing Gearing (at book value) Adj. Net debt/EBITDA... Adj. Net debt/EBITDA... EV/EBITDA(R) EV/EBITDA(R) EV/Sales EV/Sales Interest cover (x) Adjusted Gross Debt... Interest cover (x) FFO/Net debt Total debt gross/mark... (Gross cash+ "cash" ... "Cash" FCF/ST debt Tax burden (Net inco... Interest burden (preta... EBIT margin (EBIT/sa... Assets rotation (Sales... Financial leverage (A... ROE Synthetic default risk f... Target equity risk pr... Tax advantage of deb... Average debt maturity Sector asset beta Sector Asset Beta Debt beta Market capitalisation Net debt (cash) at bo... Net debt (cash) at ma... Company debt spread

January 11 2013

Page 19

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

NAV/SOTP (edit) Company debt spread Marginal Company co... Company beta (lever... Company gearing at ... Company market gea... Required return on ge... Cost of debt Cost of ungeared equity WACC WACC

Keys to long term Sales growth out years EBITDA growth out y... WC growth out years Taxes growth out years Tax shield growth out ... Interest charges and t... Capex growth out years Implicit CAGR of free ... Implicit CAGR of last ... Total discounted free ... Total AV discounted f... Sales EBITDA EBITDA Margin Change in WCR Total operating cash f... Corporate tax Net tax shield Capital expenditure Capex/Sales Pre financing costs F... Various add backs (in... Free cash flow adjusted Discounted free cash ... Invested capital ALTERNATIVE ALP... AlphaValue narrow F... Various add backs (in... Interest charges and t... Alternative AV FCF a... AV discounted free ca... WACC PV of cashflow FY1-... FY11CF Normalised long-term... Terminal value PV terminal value PV terminal value in ... Total PV Avg net debt (cash) at... Provisions Unrecognised actuari... Financial assets at m... Minorities interests (f... Equity value

January 11 2013

Page 20

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

NAV/SOTP (edit) Equity value Number of shares Implied equity value p... Normalised equity yield Synthetic default risk f... Risk free rate 10 year... Risk free rate 10 year £ Risk premium target Risk premium comput... Discount rate : US Discount rate : UK Discount rate : Euroz... Discount rate : Nordic... Discount rate : Switze... Expected wage inflati... Expected wage inflati... Expected wage inflati... Expected wage inflati... Expected wage inflati... Expected wage inflati... Bonds: normalised ex... Equities : normalised ... Property : normalised ... Other/alternative ass... Cash: normalised exp... Expected average re... Average term of pay... Years needed to satis... Annual increase in he... Normalised corporate... ---Average workforce South Americas Asia Other key countries ---Total staff costs Wages and salaries of which social secu... Equity linked payments Pension related costs Benefits related paym... ---ASSUMPTIONS ---ACTUARIAL: PLAN... % of assets in equities % of assets in bonds % of assets in property % of other/alternative ... % of assets in cash e... Total US exposure UK exposure Euro exposure Nordic countries Switzerland

January 11 2013

Page 21

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

NAV/SOTP (edit) Other Total ---Financial assumptions Company variables of... Discount rate Company discount rate Ordinary shareholder... Company Future sala... Future salary increase Total benefits provisio... Expected rate of retur... Company Expected r... of which funded pen... AlphaValue variables ... AlphaValue discount r... AlphaValue Discount ... of which unfunded p... AlphaValue Future sa... AlphaValue future sal... of which benefits / h... Unrecognised actuari... AlphaValue expected ... AlphaValue Expected... Short term AV expect... Short term AV expect... Short term AV expect... Short term AV expect... Short term AV expect... Short term AV expect... Average term of pay... Expected average re... Annual rate of increas... Corporate tax rate Years needed to satis... Corridor Funded status surplu... Unfunded status surpl... Total surplus / (deficit) ---Total unrecognised a... Pension ratio Company discount rate ---Normalised recomput... Provision (B/S) on fu... Company future salar... Provision (B/S) on un... Normalised recomput... Company expected ra... Total pension provisio... Normalised recomput... Other benefits (health... Other benefits (health... Total benefit provisions Funded obligations p... Unfunded obligations ... Total periodic costs

January 11 2013

Page 22

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

NAV/SOTP (edit) of which financial co... of which incl. in labo... of which incl. in inte... Balance beginning of ... Current service cost Interest expense Employees' contributi... Impact of change in a... of which impact of c... of which impact of c... Pension payments Changes to scope of ... Currency translation ... Pension payments Year end obligation Other Year end obligation Funded : Impact of ac... Value at beginning Company expected re... Actuarial gain /(loss) Employer's contribution Employer's contribution Employees' contributi... Changes to scope of ... Currency translation ... Pension payments Other Value end of period Value end of period ---Actual and normalise... FUNDED CORRIDO... PBO total Plan value ---Unrecognised actuari... 10% corridor at the b... Beyond 10% linked to... Average expected re... Actuarial (gain) / loss ... ---Unrecognised actuari... Actuarial (gain) / loss ... Actuarial (gain) / loss ... Subtotal of actuarial (... ---Unrecognised actuari... ---FUNDED B/S IMPLI... ( Deficit ) / surplus o... Unrecognized actuari... Minimum liability adju... Other Net balance Balance beginning of ... Current service cost

January 11 2013

Page 23

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

NAV/SOTP (edit) Other Year end obligation Interest expense Employees' contributi... Impact of change in a... of which Impact of c... of which Impact of c... Changes to scope of ... Pension payments Currency translation ... Pension payments Year end obligation Unfunded : Impact of ... ---UNFUNDED CORRI... Unrecognised actuari... 10% corridor at the b... Beyond 10% linked to... Average expected re... Actuarial (gain) / loss ... ---Unrecognised actuari... Actuarial (gain) / loss ... Subtotal of actuarial (... ---Unrecognised actuari... ---UNFUNDED B/S IMP... ( Deficit ) / surplus o... Unrecognised actuari... Minimum liability adju... Other Net balance

Comparison based va... DCF based NAV based PE based EV/EBITDA based P/book based Yield based Valuation Other Total gross assets Net cash/(debt) by year end Commitments to pay

-5,922

-3.03

101,578

51.9

-5.83 % 100 %

-30,586 (1)

-15.6

-30.1 %

-3,105 (2)

-1.59

-3.06 %

67,887

34.7

66.8 %

Commitments received NAV/SOTP Number of shares net of treasury shares - year end (Th)

1,956

NAV/SOTP per share (€)

34.7

Current discount to NAV/SOTP (%)

2.35

EV/EBITDA Liquidity 1 = (gross c... Payout ratio Compared companies

January 11 2013

Page 24

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

NAV/SOTP (edit)

January 11 2013

Page 25

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

Worth Knowing

Worth Knowing - The Group is present in about 30 countries through 16 companies and is currently in the process of setting up in China, which constitutes a very high potential industrial market. - The Poujoulat Group is at the leading edge of internet development with 20 websites to its credit. Furthermore, poujoulat.fr is one of the most visited sites in the building sector, having recorded 2 million visits in 2011. - Poujoulat owns all its assets and its balance sheet contains virtually no goodwill or other intangible assets. - In a spirit of economy and ecology, 70% of the Group’s premises are heated using wood off-cuts from Bois Factory 36, and Poujoulat has also undertaken to replace the majority of its light fittings which should cut the Group’s lighting consumption in two. - Poujoulat products are eco-design and more than 95% recyclable.

Shareholders Holding d'animation contrôlée par la famille Coirier

42.5 %

Of which % voting rights 47.2 %

Famille Coirier

32.0 %

36.0 %

Name

% owned

Apparent free float

January 11 2013

Of which % free to float 0.00 % 0.00 % 25.5 %

Page 26

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

Financials Consolidated P&L Sales

€th

12/11A

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E

175,548

192,250

222,000

237,000 6.76

Sales growth

15.9

9.51

15.5

Sales per employee

€th

129

137

153

157

Purchases and external costs (incl. IT)

€th

-103,880

-115,662

-132,744

-141,599

Staff costs

€th

-51,050

-56,250

-64,400

-68,613

Operating lease payments

€th

Cost of sales/COGS (indicative)

€th

EBITDA

€th

17,597

17,491

21,851

23,844

EBITDA(R)

€th

17,597

17,491

21,851

23,844 10.1

EBITDA(R) margin

10.0

9.10

9.84

EBITDA(R) per employee

€th

13.0

12.4

15.1

15.8

Depreciation

€th

-5,607

-6,966

-6,890

-6,762

Depreciations/Sales

3.19

3.62

3.10

2.85

Amortisation

€th

Additions to provisions

€th

-434

-560

-480

-510

Reduction of provisions

€th

835

460

800

850

Underlying operating profit

€th

12,391

10,425

15,281

17,422

Underlying operating margin

7.06

5.42

6.88

7.35

Other income/expense (cash)

€th

0.00

-7.00

0.00

Other inc./ exp. (non cash; incl. assets revaluation)

€th

Earnings from joint venture(s)

€th

Impairment charges/goodwill amortisation

€th

Operating profit (EBIT)

€th

12,391

10,418

15,274

17,422

Interest expenses

€th

-1,308

-1,325

-1,365

-1,345

€th

-94.0

Financial income

€th

1,214

820

920

908

Other financial income (expense)

€th

-239

-180

0.00

Net financial expenses

€th

-333

of which effectively paid cash interest expenses

of which related to pensions

€th

-685

-445

-437

-85.0

-98.9

-103

Pre-tax profit before exceptional items

€th

12,058

9,733

14,829

16,985

Exceptional items and other (before taxes)

€th

0.00

of which cash (cost) from exceptionals

€th -4,032

-3,212

-4,896

-5,605

Current tax

€th

Impact of tax loss carry forward

€th

Deferred tax

€th

0.00

Corporate tax

€th

-4,032

-3,212

-4,896

-5,605

Tax rate

33.4

33.0

Net margin

4.57

3.39

4.47

4.80

Equity associates

€th

0.00

Actual dividends received from equity holdings Minority interests Actual dividends paid out to minorities

€th €th

118

313

0.00

€th

0.00

Income from discontinued operations

€th

Attributable net profit

€th

8,144

6,834

9,933

11,380

Impairment charges/goodwill amortisation

€th

0.00

Other adjustments

€th

Adjusted attributable net profit

€th

8,144

6,834

9,933

11,380

Interest expense savings

€th

Fully diluted adjusted attr. net profit

€th

8,144

6,834

9,933

11,380

NOPAT

€th

8,674

7,357

10,766

12,267

January 11 2013

Page 27

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

Financials Valuation Key Data

12/11A

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E

Adjusted P/E

7.35

9.61

6.67

5.83

Reported P/E

7.35

9.61

6.67

5.83

EV/EBITDA(R)

6.08

6.70

5.97

5.42

P/Book

0.90

0.98

0.88

0.78

Dividend yield

2.20

1.86

1.84

2.03

Free cash flow yield

-29.9

-8.37

-12.7

3.86

Average stock price

€

30.6

33.6

33.9

Cashflow Statement

12/11A

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E

EBITDA

€th

17,597

17,491

21,851

23,844

Change in WCR

€th

-7,932

3,908

-8,418

-4,244

of which (increases)/decr. in receivables

€th

-3,394

12,518

-6,257

-3,155

of which (increases)/decr. in inventories

€th

-11,811

-2,095

-6,906

-3,482

of which increases/(decr.) in payables

€th

3,425

-3,554

2,117

1,067

of which increases/(decr.) in other curr. liab.

€th

3,848

-2,961

2,629

1,326

Actual dividends received from equity holdings

€th

0.00

Paid taxes

€th

-4,367

-3,212

-4,896

-5,605

Exceptional items

€th

Other operating cash flows

€th

393

-6,000

0.00

Total operating cash flows

€th

5,691

12,187

8,538

13,995

Capital expenditure

€th

-23,278

-17,000

-16,500

-11,000

Capex as a % of depreciation & amort.

415

244

239

163

Net investments in shares

€th

-15.0

0.00

Other investment flows

€th

34.0

0.00

Total investment flows

€th

-23,259

-17,000

-16,500

-11,000

Net interest expense

€th

-333

-685

-445

-437

€th

-94.0

-600

-346

-334

Dividends (parent company)

€th

-1,300

-1,343

-1,244

Dividends to minorities interests

€th

0.00

New shareholders' equity

€th

645

0.00

€th

0.00

Change in gross debt

€th

8,638

9,000

6,000

-1,000

Other financial flows

€th

0.00

Total financial flows

€th

7,889

7,057

4,410

-2,578

Change in scope of consolidation, exchange rates & other

€th

-673

0.00

Change in cash position

€th

-10,352

2,244

-3,552

417

Change in net debt position

€th

-18,990

-6,756

-9,552

1,417

Free cash flow (pre div.)

€th

-17,920

-5,498

-8,407

2,558

Operating cash flow (clean)

€th

5,691

12,187

8,538

13,995

Reinvestment rate (capex/tangible fixed assets)

22.4

26.0

22.0

13.9

of which cash interest expense

of which (acquisition) release of treasury shares

January 11 2013

Page 28

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

Financials Balance Sheet

12/11A

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E 2,173

Goodwill

€th

2,173

Other intangible assets

€th

997

Total intangible

€th

3,170

Tangible fixed assets

€th

55,342

65,376

74,986

79,224

Financial fixed assets (part of group strategy)

€th

0.00

Other financial assets (investment purpose mainly)

€th

987

1,073

€th

60.0

0.00

€th

58,304

54,396

62,814

67,058

of which available for sale WCR of which trade & receivables (+)

€th

52,954

40,436

46,693

49,848

of which inventories (+)

€th

42,535

44,630

51,536

55,019

of which payables (+)

€th

17,232

13,678

15,795

16,862

of which other current liabilities (+)

€th

19,953

16,992

19,621

20,947

€th

39.0

€th

0.00

Total assets (net of short term liabilities)

€th

117,842

124,054

142,082

150,564

Ordinary shareholders' equity (group share)

€th

66,757

67,114

75,520

85,347

Minority interests

€th

1,687

1,374

Provisions for pensions

€th

2,125

1,731

1,800

1,872

Other provisions for risks and liabilities

€th

547

579

Deferred tax liabilities

€th

1,166

940

Other liabilities

€th

0.00

Net debt / (cash)

€th

45,560

52,316

61,868

60,452

Total liabilities and shareholders' equity

€th

117,842

124,054

142,082

150,564

Average net debt / (cash)

€th

34,749

48,938

57,092

61,160

Other current assets of which tax assets (+)

EV Calculations

12/11A

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E

EV/EBITDA(R)

6.08

6.70

5.97

5.42

EV/EBIT (underlying profit)

8.63

11.2

8.54

7.42

EV/Sales

0.61

0.59

0.55

EV/Invested capital

0.92

0.95

0.93

0.86

€th

59,887

65,653

66,289

+ Provisions (including pensions)

€th

2,672

2,310

2,379

2,451

+ Unrecognised actuarial losses/(gains)

€th

0.00

+ Net debt at year end

€th

45,560

52,316

61,868

60,452

- Financial fixed assets (fair value) & Others

€th

+ Minority interests (fair value)

€th

-1,180

-3,130

0.00

= Enterprise Value

€th

106,939

117,149

130,536

129,191

Market cap

January 11 2013

Page 29

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

Financials Per Share Data

12/11A

Adjusted EPS (bfr gwill amort. & dil.)

€

Growth in EPS

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E

4.16

3.49

5.08

5.82

-6.80

-16.1

45.3

14.6

Reported EPS

€

4.16

3.49

5.08

5.82

Net dividend per share

€

0.68

0.63

0.69

Free cash flow per share

€

-9.16

-2.81

-4.30

1.31

Operating cash flow per share

€

2.91

6.23

4.36

7.15

Book value per share

€

34.1

34.3

38.6

43.6

Number of ordinary shares

1,990

Number of equivalent ordinary shares (year end)

1,990

Number of shares market cap.

1,990

Treasury stock (year end)

34.0

Number of shares net of treasury stock (year end)

1,956

Number of common shares (average)

1,956

Conversion of debt instruments into equity

Settlement of cashable stock options

Probable settlement of non mature stock options

Other commitments to issue new shares

Increase in shares outstanding (average)

0.00

Number of diluted shares (average)

1,956

Goodwill per share (diluted)

€

0.00

EPS after goodwill amortisation (diluted)

€

4.16

3.49

5.08

5.82

EPS before goodwill amortisation (non-diluted)

€

4.16

3.49

5.08

5.82

Actual payment

€

Payout ratio

16.2

17.9

12.3

11.8

Capital payout ratio (div +share buy back/net income)

16.5

18.2

12.5

Funding - Liquidity

12/11A

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E

EBITDA

€th

17,597

17,491

21,851

23,844

Funds from operations (FFO)

€th

13,529

7,679

16,609

17,905

Ordinary shareholders' equity

€th

66,757

67,114

75,520

85,347

Gross debt

€th

60,746

69,746

75,746

74,746

o/w Less than 1 year - Gross debt

€th

29,593 (2)

33,977 (2)

36,900 (2)

36,413 (2)

o/w 1 to 5 year - Gross debt

€th

25,774

29,593

32,138

31,714

o/w Beyond 5 years - Gross debt

€th

5,379

6,176

6,707

6,619

+ Gross Cash

€th

15,186

17,430

13,878

14,294

= Net debt / (cash)

€th

45,560

52,316

61,868

60,452

Other financing

€th

60,746

69,746

75,746

74,746

Undrawn committed financing facilities

€th

38,000

Gearing (at book value)

52.1

72.9

75.6

71.7

Adj. Net debt/EBITDA(R)

2.59

2.99

2.83

2.54

Adjusted Gross Debt/EBITDA(R)

3.60

4.12

3.58

3.24

Interest cover (x)

37.2

17.4

44.2

52.1

FFO/Net debt

29.7

14.7

26.8

29.6

(Gross cash+ "cash" FCF+undrawn)/ST debt

1.19

0.35

0.15

0.46

"Cash" FCF/ST debt

-0.60

-0.16

-0.23

0.07

January 11 2013

The < 1 year high debt policy is based on a management choice in the current context of very low rates (cash payment to suppliers in return for discount).

Page 30

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

Financials ROE Analysis (Dupont's Breakdown)

12/11A

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E

Tax burden (Net income/pretax pre excp income)

0.68

0.70

0.67

Interest burden (pretax inc./EBIT)

0.97

0.93

0.97

EBIT margin (EBIT/sales)

7.06

5.42

6.88

7.35

Assets rotation (Sales/Avg assets)

1.70

1.59

1.67

1.62

Financial leverage (Avg assets /Avg equity)

1.63

1.81

1.87

1.82

ROE

12.9

10.2

13.9

14.1

Shareholder's Equity Review (Group Share)

12/11A

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E

€th

60,206

66,695

67,114

75,520

+ Net profit of year

€th

8,144

6,834

9,933

11,380

- Dividends (parent cy)

€th

-1,300

-1,343

-1,244

+ Additions to equity

€th

645

0.00

€th

0.00

Y-1 shareholders' equity

o/w reduction (addition) to treasury shares - Unrecognised actuarial gains/(losses)

€th

0.00

+ Comprehensive income recognition

€th

-1,000

-5,072

-283

-309

= Year end shareholders' equity

€th

66,695

67,114

75,520

85,347

12/14E

Staffing Analytics

12/11A

12/12E

12/13E

Sales per staff

€th

129

137

153

157

Staff costs per employee

€th

-37.6

-40.0

-44.5

-45.6

Change in staff costs

14.2

10.2

14.5

6.54

Change in unit cost of staff

-42.6

6.50

11.1

2.51

Average workforce

unit

1,358

1,405

1,448

1,505

Europe

unit

1,345

1,390

1,430

1,475

North America

unit

0.00

South Americas

unit

0.00

Asia

unit

0.00

Other key countries

unit

13.0

15.0

18.0

30.0

Total staff costs

€th

-51,050

-56,250

-64,400

-68,613

Wages and salaries

€th

-51,050

-56,250

-64,400

-68,613

€th

-11,812

-13,000

-13,850

-14,690

0.00

of which social security contributions Equity linked payments

€th

Pension related costs

€th

Divisional Breakdown Of Revenues

12/11A

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E

200,508

207,630

232,545

240,555

Fabrication et négoce de conduits et cheminées métalliques

€th

Bois et énergie solaire

€th

13,432

21,148

30,525

41,475

Other

€th

-38,392

-36,528 (1)

-41,070

-45,030

Total sales

€th

175,548

192,250

222,000

237,000

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E

11,096

Divisional Breakdown Of Earnings

12/11A

NET RESULT Analysis Fabrication et négoce de conduits et cheminées métalliques

€th

8,904

8,347

10,536

Bois et énergie solaire

€th

-724

-1,321

-24.9

939

Other/cancellations

€th

-161

-505 (1)

-572

-654

Total

€th

8,019

6,521

9,940

11,380

NET RESULT margin

4.57

3.39

4.48

4.80

January 11 2013

Start-up of Solaires-Energies business activity

Page 31

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

Financials Revenue Breakdown By Country

12/11A

12/12E (3)

France

86.8

Belgium

3.69

2.62

3.11

Europe

5.50 (4)

6.22 (4)

Other

1.43

2.07 (1)

Capital Employed

84.5

12/13E

12/14E

12/11A

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E

7.43

5.98

7.64

8.21

Goodwill

€th

2,173

€th

0.00

€th

997

€th

0.00

Financial hedges (LT derivatives)

€th

0.00

Capitalised R&D

€th

0.00

PV of non-capitalised lease obligations

€th

0.00

Other fixed assets

€th

55,342

65,376

74,986

79,224

All intangible assets Accumulated intangible amortisation

Accumulated depreciation

€th

48,709

0.00

Capital employed before depreciation

€th

165,525

122,942

140,970

149,452

WCR

€th

58,304

54,396

62,814

67,058

Other assets

€th

0.00

Unrecognised actuarial losses/(gains)

€th

0.00

Capital employed after deprec. (Invested capital)

€th

116,816

122,942

140,970

149,452

12/11A

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E

Divisional Breakdown Of Capital Fabrication et négoce de conduits et cheminées métalliques

€th

Bois et énergie solaire

€th

Other

€th

116,816

122,942

140,970

149,452

Total capital employed

€th

116,816

122,942

140,970

149,452

January 11 2013

First full year of activity for Solaires-Energies (marketing photovoltaic systems), BoisFactory 70 (transforming and marketing fuel wood, acquired in Q4 2011) and MCC2I (expertise and maintenance of industrial chimneys, acquired in Q4 2011)

Particularly Germany

Start-up of Solaires-Energies business activity

4.15

ROCE (NOPAT+lease exp.*(1-tax))/(net) cap employed adjusted

Accumulated goodwill amortisation

Page 32

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

Pension Risks

Pension matters In 2011 the Poujoulat Group employed 1,358 staff – including some 200 people abroad, mainly in Poland, Germany, Belgium and the United Kingdom – compared to half that number in 2010. The bulk of the staff breaks down into workers (59%), management staff (31%) and sales staff (6%). In addition to the continuing growth in the Group’s staff numbers over the last 15 years (multiplied by 4 over the period, with 150 jobs created in 2011 alone), it should be noted that the profiles have changed considerably, moving to more qualified positions, thanks to a programme of training/innovation costing on average 4% of the total payroll. As regards its commitments in terms of pensions proper, they only amounted to some €2m in 2011, only just exceeding 3% of group equity. Being regularly provisioned, pension obligations present no concern.

Summary Of Pension Risks

12/11A

12/12E

12/13E

3.08

2.51

2.33

2.15

€th

66,757

67,114

75,520

85,347 1,872

Pension ratio

Ordinary shareholders' equity Total benefits provisions

12/14E

€th

2,125

1,731

1,800

of which funded pensions

€th

0.00

of which unfunded pensions

€th

2,125

1,731

1,800

1,872

of which benefits / health care

€th

0.00

Unrecognised actuarial (gains)/losses

€th

0.00

Company discount rate

3.30

3.50

Normalised recomputed discount rate

Company future salary increase

2.00

Normalised recomputed future salary increase

Company expected rate of return on plan assets

1.00

Normalised recomputed expd rate of return on plan assets

1.00

Funded : Impact of actuarial assumptions

€th

0.00

Unfunded : Impact of actuarial assumptions

€th

263

Geographic Breakdown Of Pension Liabilities US exposure

UK exposure

Euro exposure

Nordic countries

Switzerland

Other

Total

Balance Sheet Implications

4.00 2.00

2.00 3.00

1.00

12/11A

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E

100

12/14E

12/11A

12/12E

12/13E

Funded status surplus / (deficit)

€th

0.00

Unfunded status surplus / (deficit)

€th

-2,125

-2,473

-2,572

-2,674

Total surplus / (deficit)

€th

-2,125

-2,473

-2,572

-2,674

Total unrecognised actuarial (gains)/losses

€th

0.00

Provision (B/S) on funded pension

€th

0.00

Provision (B/S) on unfunded pension

€th

2,125

1,731

1,800

1,872

Other benefits (health care) provision

€th

0.00

Total benefit provisions

€th

2,125

1,731

1,800

1,872

12/14E

P&L Implications

12/11A

12/12E

12/13E

Funded obligations periodic costs

€th

0.00

Unfunded obligations periodic costs

€th

0.00

-85.0

-98.9

-103

Total periodic costs

€th

0.00

-85.0

-98.9

-103

of which incl. in labour costs

€th

0.00

of which incl. in interest expenses

€th

0.00

-85.0

-98.9

-103

January 11 2013

Page 33

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

Pension Risks Funded Obligations

12/11A

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E

0.00

Balance beginning of period

€th

0.00

Current service cost

€th

0.00

Interest expense

€th

0.00

Employees' contributions

€th

Impact of change in actuarial assumptions

€th

0.00

of which impact of change in discount rate

€th

0.00

of which impact of change in salary increase

€th

0.00

Changes to scope of consolidation

€th

Currency translation effects

€th

Pension payments

€th

Other

€th

Year end obligation

€th

Plan Assets

0.00

12/11A

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E

0.00

Value at beginning

€th

0.00

Company expected return on plan assets

€th

0.00

Actuarial gain /(loss)

€th

0.00

Employer's contribution

€th

0.00

Employees' contributions

€th

0.00

Changes to scope of consolidation

€th

Currency translation effects

€th

Pension payments

€th

0.00

Other

€th

Value end of period

€th

0.00

Actual and normalised future return on plan assets

€th

0.00

12/11A

12/12E

12/13E

12/14E

1,754

Unfunded Obligations Balance beginning of period

€th

2,125

2,473

2,572

Current service cost

€th

0.00

Interest expense

€th

85.0

98.9

103

Employees' contributions

€th

Impact of change in actuarial assumptions

€th

263

0.00

of which Impact of change in discount rate

€th

-195

of which Impact of change in salary increase

€th

458

2,572

2,674

Changes to scope of consolidation

€th

Currency translation effects

€th

Pension payments

€th

Other

€th

371

Year end obligation

€th

2,125

January 11 2013

2,473

Page 34

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

Governance & Management

Ticking list of key governance issues

Existing committees Yes

Weighting 20 %

/ No

One share, one vote

Audit / Governance Committee Compensation committee

Chairman vs. Executive split

Financial Statements Committee

Chairman not ex executive

Litigation Committee

Independent directors equals or above 50% of total directors Full disclosure on mgt pay (performance related bonuses, pensions and non financial benefits) Disclosure of performance anchor for bonus trigger

20 %

Nomination Committee

10 %

Safety committee

15 %

Compensation committee reporting to board of directors

SRI / Environment

Straightforward, clean by-laws

20 %

Governance score

100%

Management Frédéric COIRIER

CEO

Compensation, in k€ (year) Cash Equity linked 126 (2011)

Jean-Francois BÉNOT

CFO

130 (2011)

Philippe BULLIER

Senior Executive

136 (2011)

André PRUNIER

Senior Executive

143 (2010)

Stéphane THOMAS

Senior Executive

131 (2011)

Name

Function

Birth date

Date in

Date out

Board of directors Name

Indep. Function

Completion Birth of current date mandate

Date in

Date out

Fees / indemnity, in k€ (year)

Yves COIRIER

President/Chairman of th...

38.9 (2010)

Jean MENUT

Member

38.9 (2010)

Michel CAMP

Member

10.1 (2010)

Louis DEPARIS

Member

Hedwige DE PENFENTENYO

Member

January 11 2013

Value of holding, in k€ (year)

10.1 (2010) 2012

Page 35

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

Governance & Management

Human Resources Accidents at work 25 % Of H.R. Score

Human resources development 35 % Of H.R. Score

Pay 20 % Of H.R. Score

Job satisfaction 10 % Of H.R. Score

Internal communication 10 % Of H.R. Score

HR Breakdown Yes Accidents at work

/ No

25 %

Set targets for work safety on all group sites?

40 %

Are accidents at work declining?

60 %

Human resources development

35 %

Rating 25/100 10/100 15/100 35/100

Are competences required to meet medium term targets identified?

10 %

4/100

Is there a medium term (2 to 5 years) recruitment plan?

10 %

4/100

Is there a training strategy tuned to the company objectives?

10 %

4/100

Are employees trained for tomorrow's objectives?

10 %

4/100

Can all employees have access to training?

10 %

4/100

Has the corporate avoided large restructuring lay-offs over the last year to date?

10 %

4/100

Have key competences stayed?

10 %

4/100

Are managers given managerial objectives?

10 %

4/100

If yes, are managerial results a deciding factor when assessing compensation level?

10 %

4/100

Is mobility encouraged between operating units of the group?

10 %

Pay

20 %

4/100 20/100

Is there a compensation committee?

30 %

6/100

Is employees' performance combining group performance AND individual performance?

70 %

14/100

Job satisfaction

10 %

0/100

Is there a measure of job satisfaction?

33 %

0/100

Can anyone participate ?

34 %

0/100

Are there action plans to prop up employees' morale?

33 %

Internal communication

10 %

Are strategy and objectives made available to every employee?

100 % Human Ressources score:

0/100 10/100 10/100 90/100

HR Score H.R. Score

January 11 2013

Building Prod. & Materials Poujoulat

Page 36

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

Graphics

Momentum

: Strong momentum corresponding to a continuous and overall positive moving average trend confirmed by volumes : Relatively good momentum corresponding to a positively-oriented moving average, but offset by an overbought pattern or lack of confirmation from volumes : Relatively unfavorable momentum with a neutral or negative moving average trend, but offset by an oversold pattern or lack of confirmation from volumes : Strongly negative momentum corresponding to a continuous and overall negative moving average trend confirmed by volumes Momentum analysis consists in evaluating the stock market trend of a given financial instrument, based on the analysis of its trading flows. The main indicators used in our momentum tool are simple moving averages over three time frames: short term (20 trading days), medium term (50 days) and long term (150 days). The positioning of these moving averages relative to each other gives us the direction of the flows over these time frames. For example, if the short and medium-term moving averages are above the long-term moving average, this suggests an uptrend which will need to be confirmed. Attention is also paid to the latest stock price relative to the three moving averages (advance indicator) as well as to the trend in these three moving averages - downtrend, neutral, uptrend - which is more of a lagging indicator. The trend indications derived from the flows through moving averages and stock prices must be confirmed against trading volumes in order to confirm the signal. This is provided by a calculation based on the average increase in volumes over ten weeks together with a buy/sell volume ratio.

January 11 2013

Page 37

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

Graphics

Moving Average MACD & Volume

January 11 2013

Page 38

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

Graphics

Sector Building Prod. & Materials

January 11 2013

Page 39

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

Methodology

Fundamental Opinion It is implicit that recommendations are made in good faith but should not be regarded as the sole source of advice. Recommendations are geared to a “value” approach. Valuations are computed from the point of view of a secondary market minority holder looking at a medium term (say 6 months) performance. Valuation tools are built around the concepts of transparency, all underlying figures are accessible, and consistency, same methodology whichever the stock, allowing for differences in nature between financial and non financial stocks. A stock with a target price below its current price should not and will not be regarded as an Add or a Buy. Recommendations are based on target prices with no allowance for dividend returns. The thresholds for the four recommendation levels may change from time to time depending on market conditions. Thresholds are defined as follows, ASSUMING long risk free rates remain in the 2-5% region.

Recommendation

Low Volatility (10-30)

Buy

More than 15 % upside

Normal Volatility (15-35) More than 20 % upside

High Volatility (above 35)

Add

From 5 % to 15 %

From 5 % to 20 %

From 10 % to 30 %

Reduce

From -10 % to 5 %

From -10 % to 10 %

Sell

Below -10 %

More than 30 % upside

There is deliberately no “neutral” recommendation. The principle is that there is no point investing in equities if the return is not at least the risk free rate (and the dividend yield which again is not allowed for). Although recommendations are automated (a function of the target price whenever a new equity research report is released), the management of AlphaValue intends to maintain global consistency within its universe coverage and may, from time to time, decide to change global parameters which may affect the level of recommendation definitions and /or the distribution of recommendations within the four levels above. For instance, lowering the risk premium in a gloomy context may increase the proportion of positive recommendations.

Valuation Valuation processes have been organized around transparency and consistency as primary objectives. Stocks belong to different categories that recognise their main operating features : Banks, Insurers and Non Financials. Within those three universes, the valuation techniques are the same and in relation to the financial data available. The weighting given to individual valuation techniques is managed centrally and may be changed from time to time. As a rule, all stocks of a similar profile are valued using equivalent weighting of the various valuation techniques. This is for obvious consistency reasons. Within the very large universe of Non Financials, there are in effect 4 sub-categories of weightings to cater for subsets: 1) 'Mainstream' stocks; 2) 'Holding companies' where the stress is on NAV measures; 3) 'Growth' companies where the stress is on peer based valuations; 4) 'Loss making sectors' where peers review is essentially pointing nowhere. The bulk of the valuation is then built on DCF and NAV, in effect pushing back the time horizon. Valuation Issue

Normal Growth industrials industrials

Holding Loss company runners

Bank

Insurers

DCF

35%

10%

40%

NAV

20%

55%

40%

25%

15%

10%

20%

EV/EBITDA

20%

Yield

10%

20%

15%

P/Book

15%

10%

Banks' instrinsic method

25%

Embedded Value

40%

Mkt Cap/Gross Operating Profit

10%

Typical sectors Bio Techs

January 11 2013

Page 40

ALPHAVALUE CORPORATE SERVICES

Poujoulat

(Buy)

Building Prod. & Materials / France

Methodology Important Warning Above comments are solely aimed at institutional and other professional investors. They are designed to complement services made available by subscription only to AlphaValue via www.alphavalue.com . Above comments may only make sense in connection with an access to AlphaValue on line equity research

January 11 2013

Page 41