Market and Feasibility Analysis Highest and Best Use Study
Course : Real Estate Market Dynamics (AUMREAL638) Programme : MBA - Real Estate Management Course Coordinator :Prof. Shekhar Nagargoje
1
Geography of Micro Market
Source: google earth pro
2
Geography of Sion
3
http://en-in.topographic-map.com/
Existing land Use Pattern
Key Map
F/N ward
4 Source :portal.mcgm.gov.in/irj/portal
Existing land Use Pattern
5
https://portal.mcgm.gov.in/irj/portal
3D Depiction of Land Use
Source: Google earth pro
6
Demographics
Sion comprises of 1,08,293 households Total population of 4,84,266 of which 54% is male and 46% are women The Projected Population for the year 2021 is 4,89,273 (CAGR 1.01%) Household size - 4.5
It has a literacy rate of 79%
Population Density- 44100 persons / Sq KM http://censusindia.gov.in/
7
Historic Growth of Sion - 2000
8
Source: google earth pro
Historic Growth of Sion - 2004
9
Source: google earth pro
Historic Growth of Sion - 2008
10
Source: google earth pro
Historic Growth of Sion - 2012
11
Source: google earth pro
Historic Growth of Sion - 2016
12
Source: google earth pro
Historic Growth of Sion - 2018
13
Source: google earth pro
11 kms
Regional Linkages
1.8 kms
3.5 kms
3.85 kms 0.75 kms
2.8 kms Source: Google earth pro
Development planning/ Zoning plan
Project Site
F/north ward Development plan 15 https://portal.mcgm.gov.in/irj/portal
Development plan Overlay
Source: Google earth pro
16
Development planning/ Zoning plan
Zone
Basic FSI
Additional FSI
Admissible TDR
Permissible FSI
Residential / commercial
1.33
.34
.33
2.0
Residential / commercial (Affordable Housing)
_
_
_
4
Educational, Healthcare and Hospitality
1.33
300%
5.4
http://www.sdmarchitects.com/building-regulations-in-mumbai.html 17
Municipal/ Urban Development Authorities
► MCGM- Mumbai Co-operation of Greater Mumbai
► BMC- Bombay Municipal Co-operation
► BSE- Supplies Electricity to Pratiksha Nagar, Sion
► MHADA - Maharashtra Housing and Development Authority
► MTNL- Landline
18
Infrastructure Development (Physical) MMRDA has allocated almost 80% of the budget(70bn) to infrastructure projects in and around the MMR. •
mono rail projects
•
Wadala Truck Terminal
•
Santacruz-Chembur Link Road (SCLR)
•
Eastern freeway
•
Eastern expressway
•
link roads like Wadala-Anik Road and concretization of Sion-Koliwada
Monorail
(SCLR)
Eastern freeway
Source: deskgram.net/
Source:www.mumbai-metro.com
19
Physical Infrastructure Development
20
Source: Google earth pro
Infrastructure Development (Social)
21 Source: Google earth pro
Infrastructure Development (Social)
Source: Google earth pro 22
Urban Fabric (Residential)
23
Urban Fabric (Residential)
24
25
Urban Fabric (Educational Institutions)
26
Urban Fabric (Retail/commercial/entertainment)
27
Residential Property Price Trends
Sion
Source: Accommodation times
28
Residential Property Price Trends
PRICE/ SQ.FT 16000 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2001
Source: Accommodation times
2006
2010
2014
29
Traffic & Transportation
Moderate Traffic
30
Source: Google traffic
Source: Google traffic
Traffic & Transportation
Moderate Congestion
Traffic Congestions Source: Google traffic
31
Source: Google traffic
Traffic & Transportation No and Type of Vehicles and Pedestrians passing by the site in One hour 350
300
250
286 244
200
150 118 100 52
50 24
32
0 Pedestrians
2 Wheeler
Taxis & Autos
Cars
Tempos
Buses 32
Socio Economic Classification
33
Basis of Economic Classification
(Source: Report of the Task force on affordable housing for all (www.pib.nic.in)
34
Site Characteristics
Size and Shape of the lot Trapezoidal site 35
History of Subject Site
36
http://prcmumbai.nic.in/jsp/showProperty.jsp?stblName=18&id=3580
Site Information & NOC Requirements
37
Source : srdp1991.mcgm.gov.in/dpGis/#
Rationale Behind Selecting The Site
► Upcoming Infrastructure Project – Wadala Truck Terminal
► Mass Transit Accessibility (Monorail, Bus Depot, Railway) Within 5-10 mins
► Connection to Expressways and Highways
► Site is in the center of the micro-market, hence the data used will hold true
38
Site Characteristics - Ease of Access
3 point Entrance and Exit for Traffic Ease of Access for Delivery
Source: Google maps
39
Condition of Existing Buildings
40
Condition of Existing Buildings
41
Site Characteristics - Type of Zoning Urbanizable zone
Sion
Source: Draft MMR Plan Report 2016-36, pg 111.
42
Physical Attributes 6 Residential Building
Plan 25% Recreation
•
Site Plot
-41,736 sq.m
•
FSI
-2.60
•
Open Space (25%) -10,434 sq.m
•
Permi. Build up
•
Height of Building -36m
•
No. Floors
-12 Floors
•
Floor Plate
- 7,042.95 sq.m
•
Floor Plate / Building
Exploded View
•
No. Building
-84,515.4 sq.m
-1,006.13 sq.m -7
Physical Attributes 5 Commercial Building
Plan 25% Recreation
•
Site Plot
-41,736 sq.m
•
FSI
-2.70
•
Open Space (25%)-10,434 sq.m
•
Permi. Build up
•
Height of Building -24m
•
No. Floors
-8 Floors
•
Floor Plate
-10,173 sq.m
•
Floor Plate / Building
Exploded View
•
No. Building
-81,384 sq.m
-1696 sq.m -6
Property Productivity Analysis Legal And Regulatory Attributes
Zone
Basic FSI
Additional FSI
Admissible TDR
Permissible FSI
Residential / commercial
1.33
.34
.33
2.0
Residential / commercial (Affordable Housing)
_
_
_
4
Educational, Healthcare and Hospitality
1.33
300%
•
5.4
Height of Building: depends on location and proximity to airport. Height of a room should be less than 4.2m.
•
Setbacks / Open Spaces Required around building: Ht/3 for living spaces (bedrooms, living rooms) and Ht/5 for dead walls and toilets. This can be overcome by paying a premium to the BMC. This is called open space deficiency. However the CFO will demand a clear 6mx6m for fire engine movement.
http://www.sdmarchitects.com/building-regulations-in-mumbai.html 45
Legal And Regulatory Attributes •
Refuge Areas: one every 24m in height, area not less than 4% of the occupied space existing till the next refuge area.
•
Normally, 15% of the plot must be reserved as a recreation area. If the plot area is greater than 2,500m2, then this 15% is also subtracted from the total FSI of the plot.
•
No. of staircases Required: two if the floor plate is more than 500m2 or the height more than 24m. Each should be 1.5m wide, enclosed by a 230mm brick wall, ventilated to the outside, and accessed via a fire door. Higher buildings will require 2m wide stairs
•
Shafts: min dimension of 0.6m.
•
Balconies: in the fungible FSI system, the area of balconies is counted in FSI
http://www.sdmarchitects.com/building-regulations-in-mumbai.html 46
Legal And Regulatory Attributes
http://www.sdmarchitects.com/building-regulations-in-mumbai.html 47
Market Delineation - Gravity Model
Source :Business Geography and New Real Estate Market Analysis, pg- 89
Source: Google traffic
48
Market Delineation – Time Distance Method
Source : business analyst
Supply Analysis Commercial – Grade A Office Space
Grade A Classification : These buildings are the newest and highest quality buildings in the market. They are generally the best looking buildings with the best Built quality and infrastructure. Class A buildings are well located, have good access, and are professionally managed.
Competition analysis ► Number of Competitive properties in micro-markets : 3
-Rustomjee Aspire, sion east -Godrej Coliseum, sion west
-Runwal & Omkar Esquare, sion west ► No new proposed construction and probable additional supply
Source:http://www.areadevelopment.com/
50
Commercial Supply Analysis Rustomjee Aspire •
11 storied
•
Total area- 1.41 lakh sq.ft
•
100% absorbed and occupied
Godrej Coliseum • • • •
14 storied (3 towers) Price- 19000-22000/sq.ft Rental- 100-110/sq.ft 88% absorbed and occupied
Runwal & Omkar Esquare •
3+7 storied
•
100% absorbed and occupied
Primary Survey data
51
Attributes of Competitive Properties
High-speed Elevators Land Scaping Well Connected (major highways/ roads) Car Parking
Power backup Fire Alarms
52
Commercial Demand Analysis Qualitative and Fundamental Analysis
► Only 3 Grade-A Office spaces in whole Micro Market ► 96% of the space is absorbed and occupied ► Closest market to BKC (shift of companies due to rising prices- upper range 40,000) ► Move-up demand for space in higher quality buildings (Class A and Class B) ► Accessibility (transportation facilities and highway systems) and cost of transportation
Source: The Appraisal of Real Estate – the Appraisal Institute of Canada and the Appraisal Institute. Pg 9.9 Source: jllapsites.com/real-estate-compass/2018/09 Source: www.magicbricks.com/Property-Rates-Trends 53
Supply Analysis - Hospitality Competition analysis ► Number of Competitive properties in micro-markets : 6
- Hotel Ashray International - Hotel Sion Residency
- Hotel Guest inn Residency - Hotel Palace Residency
► No Key / prominent players in general area
► No new proposed construction and probable additional supply
54
Hospitality Survey Questionnaire
► No. of Rooms
► Price Range (highest- lowest)
► Occupancy Percentage (peak - off season)
► Division of Space
► Type of customer (business, tourist ,others)
► Average booking period
55
Findings / Attributes of Competitive Properties
Room Rents of Major Hotels 5000
4500 4000
RENTS
3500 3000 2500 2000
Minimum
1500
Maximum
1000 500
0 Perl View
Guest Inn Sion Residency Residency HOTELS
Ashray International
56
Findings / Attributes of Competitive Properties
No of Rooms in Major Hotels 45
41
40 35
31
31
30
24
25 20 15 10
5 0
Perl View
Guest Inn Residency Column3
Sion Residency Column1
Ashray International
Column2
57
Findings / Attributes of Competitive Properties
Occupancy During Different Seasons Ashray International
Sion Residency
Guest Inn Residency
Perl View
0
20
40 Off Season
60
80
100
120
Preak Season
58
Hospitality Demand Analysis Qualitative Analysis
►
Proximity to Mass Transit
►
Current Hotel have an 80-100% occupancy
►
Proximity to Visa office in BKC
►
Excellent Hospitals and medical facilities
►
Tourist attraction in Sion – Sion Fort, Riwa Fort
The above Factors show a demand for a hospitality project in Sion but of a small scale that ranges from 15000 – 20000 sq.ft. it can be included as a part of mix development project
59
Residential Supply Up- coming and under construction Projects
► Lodha New cuff parade ► Beaumonte ► Ahuja o2 ► Ganesh Niwas ► Raj Heights
► Sion East
60
Supply Trends - Sales (units)
61
http://datalabs.proptiger.com/analysis/catchment/
Supply Trends – Sales (Square feet)
62
http://datalabs.proptiger.com/analysis/catchment/
Supply Trends - Sales(units)
63
http://datalabs.proptiger.com/analysis/catchment/
Supply Trends – Sales (Budget)
64
http://datalabs.proptiger.com/analysis/catchment/
Supply Trends – Price / sq st
65
http://datalabs.proptiger.com/analysis/catchment/
Supply Trends – Price / sq st
66
http://datalabs.proptiger.com/analysis/catchment/
Supply Trends – Launched And Delivered
67
http://datalabs.proptiger.com/analysis/catchment/
Supply Trends – Unsold Inventory
68
http://datalabs.proptiger.com/analysis/catchment/
Residential Demand Analysis Qualitative and fundamental Analysis
► Wadala Truck Terminal (Infrastructure Project) – Development of this Infrastructure Project will
create significant employment which will in-turn create demand for residential space. ► Population of the Sion (section 32) Micro-market area is one of the Highest among the other
markets in Grater Mumbai and shows an increasing trend which indicates an increase in the total number households in-turn causing an increasing in demand for residential space (Census of India, 2011) ► Availability of support facilities and community services, like cultural institutions, educational
facilities, health and medical facilities, fire and police protection (Sauder school of Business real
estate division, 2010)
Source :Dp draft report 2034 final
69
Supply Analysis - Retail Competition analysis
► No retail space (mall) in Micro market ► Supply- 0 sq.ft ► Nearest mall to micro-market – Cubic Mall 8kms ► No new proposed construction and probable additional supply
70
Retail Demand Analysis Quantitative Analysis
► In India 1.2 Per Capita Mall Space can be considered an oversupply. Assuming on
the higher side, if we consider a PCMS of 1.5 for the study area ► 4,84,266 (population) * 1.5 (pcms) =7,26,399 sqft ► The above calculation shows a total estimated demand of 7,26,399 sqft
Source: Market Analysis and Feasibility of Shopping mall in the Micro - market of Whitefield, Bangalore
71
Commercial Financial feasibility 5 Commercial Building
15% Recreational 10% Amenities
Plan
Area Calculations
Exploded View
Description
Unit
Quantity
Plot Area
Sq.mt
41736
FSI
2.7
RG & Amenities Sq.mt 25%
10434
Permissible BUA
84515.4
Sq.mt
No. of Buildings Nos.
5
Area/ Unit
Sq.mt
2936.55
No. of Units
Nos.
200
Commercial Financial feasibility
Worst Case
Most Likely Case
Best Case
NPV (in Cr.)
642
975
1381
IRR
37.42%
41.56%
45.37%
Commercial & Hotel Financial feasibility 4 Commercial Building
2 Hotel Building 15% Recreational 10% Amenities
Plan Area Calculations
Exploded View
Description
Unit
Quantity
Plot Area
Sq.mt
41736
FSI
2.7
RG & Amenities Sq.mt 25%
10434
Permissible BUA
Sq.mt
84515.4
Commercial BUA
Sq.mt
63386.62
Hotel Bua
Sq.mt
21128.87
Commercial & Hotel Financial feasibility
Worst Case
Most Likely Case
Best Case
NPV (in Cr.)
4.36
106
182
IRR
15%
21%
24%
Commercial & Time Sharing Financial feasibility
1 T.S. Building
3 Commercial Building 15% Recreational 10% Amenities
Plan Area Calcultions
Exploded View
Description
Unit
Quantity
Plot Area
Sq.mt
41736
FSI
2.7
RG & Amenities Sq.mt 25%
10434
Permissible BUA
Sq.mt
84515.4
Commercial BUA
Sq.mt
29215.2
Time Sharing
Sq.mt
12520.8
Commercial & Time Sharing Financial feasibility
Worst Case
Most Likely Case
Best Case
NPV (in Cr.)
10
108
171
IRR
15%
21%
24%
Hospitality Financial feasibility
1 Hotel Building
15% Recreational 10% Amenities
Plan Area Calculations
Exploded View
Description
Unit
Quantity
Plot Area
Sq.mt
41736
FSI
2.7
RG & Amenities Sq.mt 25%
10434
Permissible BUA
Sq.mt
84515.4
No.of Rooms
Nos.
200
Room Size
Sq.ft
350
Residential-Product Mix Financial feasibility 6 Residential Building
15% Recreational 10% Amenities
Plan Area Calculations
Exploded View
Description
Unit
Quantity
Plot Area
Sq.mt
41736
FSI
2.7
RG & Amenities 25% Sq.mt
10434
Permissible BUA
Sq.mt
84515.4
BUA of 1 BHK Flats
Sq.mt
38031.93
No. of 1 BHK Flats
Nos.
116
BUA of 2 BHK Flats
Sq.mt
29580.39
No. of 2 BHK Flats
Nos.
184
BUA of 3 BHK Flats
Sq.mt
16903.08
No. of 3 BHK Flats
Nos.
36
Residential-Product Mix Financial feasibility
Worst Case
Most Likely Case
Best Case
NPV (in Cr.)
2.7
52
141
IRR
20%
24%
32%
Residential Re-development Financial feasibility MIG 3 Buildings
HIG 7 Buildings
Transit 2 Buildings
15% Recreational 10% Amenities
Plan
Saleable 1 Building
Area Calculations
Exploded View
Description
Unit
Quantity
Plot Area
Sq.mt
41736
FSI
2.7
RG & Amenities Sq.mt 25%
10434
Permissible BUA
84515.4
Sq.mt
Residential Re-development Financial feasibility
Description
Units
Quantity
Duration
Years
6
NPV
Rs.
18105012.26
IRR
25.42%
BCR
1.02
Pay Period
3.67
Residential Tailor Modal Financial feasibility
7 Residential Building
15% Recreational 10% Amenites
Plan Area Calculations
Exploded View
Description
Unit
Quantity
Plot Area
Sq.mt
41736
FSI
2.7
RG & Amenities 25% Sq.mt
10434
Permissible BUA
Sq.mt
84515.4
Ht. of Building
Mt.
36
No. of Floors
Nos.
12
No. of Buildings
Nos.
7
Flats/ Floor Plate
Nos.
5
Area/ Flat
Sq.mt
130.79
Residential Tailor Model Financial feasibility
Worst Case
Most Likely Case
Best Case
NPV (in Cr.)
96
265
517
IRR
29%
43%
62%
Retail Financial feasibility
Retail Building
15% Recreational 10% Amenities
Plan
Area Calculations
Exploded View
Description
Unit
Quantity
Plot Area
Sq.mt
41736
FSI
2.7
RG & Amenities 25% Sq.mt
10434
Permissible BUA
Sq.mt
84515.4
Slab to Slab Ht.
Mt
6.5
No. of Floors
Nos.
6
Ht.of Buiding
Mt
39
Leseable Area
Sq.mt
11738.25
Retail Financial feasibility
Worst Case
Most Likely Case
Best Case
NPV (in Cr.)
-128
-121
-199
IRR
11%
12%
7%
Highest and Best Use Sr.No
Type of Modal
1
Residential – Product Mix
2
3
4
Worst Case
Most Likely
Best Case
NPV in CR.
2.7
52
141
IRR
20%
24%
32%
NPV (in CR)
96
265
517
IRR
29%
43%
62%
NPV (in CR)
-
181
-
IRR
-
25.42%
-
NPV (in CR)
642
975
1381
IRR
37.42%
41.56%
45.73%
Residential – Tailor Flats
Residential Redevelopment
Commercial
Highest and Best Use Sr.No
Type of Modal
5
Commercial & Hotel
6
7
8
Worst Case
Most Likely
Best Case
NPV (in CR)
4.36
106
182
IRR
15%
21%
24%
NPV (in CR)
10
108
171
IRR
15%
21%
24%
NPV (in CR)
-3215
-3195
-3179
IRR
-28%
-25%
-24%
NPV (in CR)
-128
-121
-199
IRR
11%
12%
7%
Commercial & Time Sharing
Hospitality
Retail
Proposed Development Tailor Flats
A Tailor Flat includes basic flooring, plastered walls and in some cases, pantry and toilet facilities in operational condition. Tailor flats(Structure and basic necessities) are provided by builder/Developer where Client gets huge range of designing options based on economic availability. Example- Plumbing (Strom water , Sewage line and Water Supply Line), Electrification,
Parapet Railing, Door Frame, Water Proofing.
Proposed Development Sample Tailor Flats
Source :https://www.thailand-property.com
Proposed Development Why Tailor Flats?
The highest and best use of the development project is to build luxury apartments, but due to the upcoming high end projects ie.. Lodha and Ajmera, which cater to the requirements of luxury sector, hence it is
important for the proposed project to position itself different from the competitors and cater the need of the end user of the project. The proposed project can target the two classes of MIG and a part of LIG
Proposed Development Tailor Flats
Advantages
Flexibility for the client in choosing the interiors
Low cost of construction for the builder
Construction time is reduced.
Increase in the profit margin for the developer
Attracts MIG and upper MIG class of people
Proposed Development Tailor Flats Available design of Low Range Interior at the 1800/ sq.ft
Source : Studio Metric
Proposed Development Tailor Flats Available design of Mid Range Interior at the 2500/ sq.ft
Source : Studio Metric
Proposed Development Tailor Flats Available design of Mid Upper Range Interior at the 2800/ sq.ft
Source : Studio Metric
References
► google earth pro ► datalabs.proptiger.com/analysis/catchment/ ► The Appraisal of Real Estate – the Appraisal Institute of Canada and the Appraisal Institute. Pg 9.9 ► www.jllapsites.com/real-estate-compass/2018/09 ► www.magicbricks.com/Property-Rates-Trends ► www.sdmarchitects.com/building-regulations-in-mumbai.html
► Business Geography and New Real Estate Market Analysis, pg- 89 ► Business analyst ► Accommodation times ► www.portal.mcgm.gov.in/irj/portal ► www.srdp1991.mcgm.gov.in/dpGis/# ► www.prcmumbai.nic.in/jsp/showProperty.jsp?stblName=18&id=3580 ► Studio Metric ► www.thailand-property.com 96
Credits
I appreciate you for taking time out of your busy day to help us with the project…
Prof. Shekar Nagargoje Prof. Pragnesh Trivedi Prof. Pallavi Patil Ar. Shekar Gramopaday Adv. Aishwarya Junnare
Ar. Karan Rego Er. Pranaypratap Mala Er. Kundan Hallur Er. Lakshmikanth Gotur Er. Zaid Khan
Er. Amitkumar Bharne Er. Kushal S Er. Siddesh Patil Er. Abhilash Pakmodae Er. Hrishikesh Jadhav Ar. Jesal Vora
Source :https://giphy.com