PROPERTY AFFORDABILITY PROPERTY WATCH速 REPORT 2016 GOLD COAST Surfers Paradise HOTSPOTS REPORT Fourth Quarter 2013
SYDNEY 1ST HALF 2016
SYDNEY HOTSPOTS JANUARY-JUNE 2016
HOTSPOTS OVERVIEW 2016 This Sydney hotspot report analyses all suburbs within the Sydney metropolitan region, to highlight those with above average growth over 15 months to December 2015 and 1st Quarter 2016*. To assist in determining Sydney’s hotspots three key indicators are utilised. Firstly median price growth of house and unit between 2014 and January 2016*. The Sydney average loan is also considered as it reflects affordability. In December quarter 2015, New South Wales recorded an average loan of $495,585***; which is an increase from September quarter 2015 figure of $468,255***. Secondly the aggregate estimated value of residential, commercial, and infrastructure projects to commence construction in 2016. This indicates upcoming property supply, interconnectivity to the CBD and other economic hubs, and economic activity expected in the area. Lastly average day on the market and average vendor discount are considered. For the past 15 months to December 2015 and 1st Quarter 2016*, Sydney inner suburbs recorded 18.1% median house growth. Growth is also seen in Overview middle (29.1%) and outer suburbs (20.2%). Inner, middle and outer suburbs recorded unit median growth of 12.5%, 14.9% and 13.8% respectively.
Area
Suburb
Rosebery
Type
Change from Last
Year
Half Year
House sales House median House rents
RECENT TOP PERFORMERS Median Price 2014
KEY MARKET INDICATORS
Median Price 2015 & 2016*
House $1,195,000 $1,600,000
Unit sales Annual Growth
Projects 2016
Unit median
33.9%
$130.6M
Unit rents
15.0%
$1.2M
35.7%
$0.8M
19.3%
$40.0M
25.0%
$13.5M
17.6%
$0.8M
30.4%
$37.5M
17.6%
$7.4M
37.4%
$46.4M
21.7%
$96.6M
Inner Centennial Park Waitara
Unit
$615,000
$707,500
House $1,170,000 $1,587,500
North Wahroonga Brighton-Le-Sands
Unit
$675,000
$805,050
House $1,120,000 $1,400,000
South Oatley Dee Why
Unit
$662,500
$779,000
House $1,150,000 $1,500,000
East Burwood Croydon
Unit
$680,000
$800,000
House $1,121,000 $1,540,000
“Sydney prices are seeing a slight softening in early 2016, with the majority of project funding directed to the outer ring. This will further stimulate housing supply and mitigate affordability issues” Dr Diaswati Mardiasmo PRDnationwide National Research Manager
West Lindfield
Unit
$649,000
$790,000
Northern suburbs are rising to popularity by recording the second highest median growth, while Sydney’s western suburbs continue to deliver the strongest median growth in house medians. The eastern suburbs has recorded the strongest growth in unit prices. There is a focus on residential project developments in the 1st half of 2016 (Residential: $8.1B, and balanced in the remainder (Mixed Use: $2.4B, Infrastructure: $4.4B and Commercial: $3.1B), all of which signals a conducive environment for home affordability. *Disclaimer: Median price quoted captures sales from 1 st January 2015 to 31st March 2016 **Project Development spending is based on aggregate of estimated land and construction value for residential, commercial, and infrastructure scheduled to commence construction within the year 2016. ***Figure derived from March 2016 Housing Affordability Report by Real Estate Institute of Australia and Adelaide Bank PRDnationwide does not give any warranty in relation to the accuracy of the information contained in this report. If you intend to rely upon the information contained herein, you must take note that the Information, figures and projections have been provided by various sources and have not been verified by us. We have no belief one way or the other in relation to the accuracy of such information, figures and projections. PRDnationwide will not be liable for any loss or damage resulting from any statement, figure, calculation or any other information that you rely upon that is contained in the material. Prepared by PRDnationwide Research © All medians and volumes are calculated by PRDnationwide Research. Use with written permission only. All other responsibilities disclaimed. © 2015
PROPERTY CLOCK – SYDNEY 2016 Peak
Sydney Metropolitan Regional Downswing
Upswing
Bottom
AFFORDABLE HOUSE HOTSPOTS 2016
Overview
4+ Bed
4+ Bed
4+ Bed
3 Bed
3 Bed
3 Bed
2 Bed
2 Bed
2 Bed
GREENACRE 2190
REGENTS PARK 2143
SYDENHAM 2044
Approx. distance from CBD 15km Median house price $895,000
Approx. distance from CBD 16km Median house price $843,000
Approx. distance from CBD 6km Median house price $950,000
Greenacre has shown strong growth in past 12 months, recording 24.3% median growth. Central to Bankstown and Sydney CBD, Greenacre scheduled $93.4M of projects in 2016. Population growth is estimated at 1.2% per annum to 2031, and records an estimated house rental yield of 3.1%.
Regent’s Park is one of the most affordable suburbs within Sydney’s innerring region. Regents Park is strongly connected with local economic nodes by the Hume Hwy and Metro Rail corridors. The suburb’s house rental yield is estimated at 2.6%, and house median weekly rent of $480/wk.
Sydenham is central of the booming Central area, a region at the heart of Sydney’s urban growth. The most affordable suburb within 10km of the CBD, Sydenham records an estimated house rental yield of 3.5% and 12.9% capital growth over past 12 months – an astute opportunity for inner city buyers.
AFFORDABLE UNIT HOTSPOTS 2016 3 Bed
3 Bed
3 Bed
2 Bed
2 Bed
2 Bed
1 Bed
1 Bed
1 Bed
SOUTH GRANVILLE 2142
EASTLAKES 2018
KOGARAH 2100
Approx. distance from CBD 19km Median unit price $475,000
Approx. distance from CBD 6km Median unit price $580,000
Approx. distance from CBD 12km Median unit price $600,000
South Granville records amongst Sydney’s most affordable median unit prices when compared to the metro region. Offering sustainable capital growth and 4.8% unit rental yields, South Granville presents an excellent starting point for first time homebuyers and investors looking to enter Sydney’s competitive property market.
Sydney’s most affordable suburb within 10km of Sydney CBD, the suburb has shown strong growth compared to neighboring suburbs. Eastlakes is located in proximity to Sydney CBD, Airport, and Eastern suburbs, showing potential for first time home buyers looking for balance between affordability and CBD proximity.
An estimated population growth of 1.3% per annum until 2031 and $389.9M in planned project development signals sustainable growth for Kogarah. Kogarah records an estimated unit rental yield of 4.0%. Kogarah is perfect for first homebuyers looking to enter the market, strong connection to CBD via M5 and rail.
*Photo Credits: Romantic view of Sydney (cover photo), courtesy of iStock, Giraffe at Taronga Zoo, Sydney, and Bondi Beach (Inside cover) courtesy Colliers International stock images, Sydney Harbour Bridge from the air (this page) courtesy of Wikipedia Commons.
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GREATER SYDNEY KEY INDICATORS SALES AND MEDIAN PRICE GROWTH** 180000
$1,200,000
160000
$1,000,000 120000
$800,000
100000 $600,000 80000 60000
$400,000
Median Price
Number of Sales
140000
40000 $200,000
20000 0
$0 2012
2013
House
Unit
2014
Median House Price
QUARTERLY MEDIAN RENTS*** $998 Four bedroom
2015
2016 Median unit price
1st HALF 2016 DEVELOPMENT* Commercial ($3.1 billion)
$613 Infrastructure ($4.4 billion)
$480
Mixed Use ($2.4 billion)
All Dwellings
$850 Three bedroom
Residential ($8.1 billion)
$570 $440
$635 Two bedroom
$480 $380 $520
One bedroom
$460 $350 $0
Inner Middle
Outer
$200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000
The Sydney metropolitan region is forecasted to receive $17.9B worth off new development projects over the next 6 months. The majority of the funding pipeline will be directed to residential and commercial development in Sydney’s outer ring. These projects are supplemented by a $4.4B slice of infrastructure funding, which will be largely directed at many capital works and community development projects to further enhance service and connectivity to the outer ring. The forecast schedule of funding highlights a municipal push to stimulate housing supply and mitigate affordability woes in the Sydney metropolitan region. As a result, housing affordability in Sydney’s property market should improve as demand is relieved.
*Disclaimer: Project Development data includes projects commencing construction 01/01/2016-01/07/2016. Estimated value represents land and construction value, and does not indicate commercial and/or sale value. **Median price for 2016 captures sales up to and inclusive of 31 st March 2016, or end of Q1 2016. ***Quarterly median rental price is derived from March 2016 Housing Affordability Report by Real Estate Institute of Australia and Adelaide Bank Source: Cordell Database, APM Pricefinder, New South Wales Department of Family and Community Services, Real Estate Institute of New South Wales
SYDNEY MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE MAP 1st HALF 2016*
Top 3 Lowest Priced Suburbs
Median Price 2015 & 2016*
Project Development**
Median Rent (Q1)*
Rental Yield
South Granville
$770,000
N/A
$450
3.0%
Merrylands
$780,000
$146.8M
$485
2.9%
Bass Hill
$785,000
$2.0M
$520
3.4%
$1,000,000 - $1,500,000
Top 3 Highest Priced Suburbs
Median Price 2015 & 2016*
Project Development**
Median Rent (Q1)*
Rental Yield
$1,500,000 - $2,500,000
Longueville
$2,500,000
N/A
$1,388
2.3%
Chiswick
$2,364,000
$2.0M
$850
2.0%
Kurraba Point
$2,310,000
N/A
$1,750
3.5%
LEGEND DATA NOT AVAILABLE < $500,000 $500,000 - $750,000 $750,000 - $1,000,000
> $2,500,000 20 KM FROM CBD
*Disclaimer: Median price quoted captures sales from 1st January 2015 to 31st March 2016; Q1 rental figures quoted captures rented properties up to and inclusive of 31st March 2016 **Project Development spending is based on aggregate land and construction value as provided by the relevant data authority and does not include commercial/re-sale value Source: APM Pricefinder, Real Estate Institute of Australia, Australian Bureau of Statistics, ESRI, Cordell Database
SYDNEY MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE MAP 1st HALF 2016 < 20KM FROM CBD
4 2 1
3 5
6
LEGEND
HOTSPOTS RENTAL YIELD DATA NOT AVAILABLE < $500,000 $500,000 - $750,000
House
Unit
Suburb
House
Unit
Greenacre
3.1%
3.8%
South Granville
3.0%
4.8%
Regents Park
2.8%
4.3%
Eastlakes
3.1%
4.0%
Sydenham
3.5%
N/A
Kogarah
2.4%
4.0%
Suburb
$750,000 - $1,000,000 $1,000,000 - $1,500,000 $1,500,000 - $2,500,000 > $2,500,000
Source: APM Pricefinder, Real Estate Institute of New South Wales, ESRI
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PRDnationwide does not give any warranty in relation to the accuracy of the information contained in this report. If you intend to rely upon the information contained herein, you must take note that the Information, figures and projections have been provided by various sources and have not been verified by us. We have no belief one way or the other in relation to the accuracy of such information, figures and projections. PRDnationwide will not be liable for any loss or damage resulting from any statement, figure, calculation or any other information that you rely upon that is contained in the material. Prepared by PRDnationwide Research © All medians and volumes are calculated by PRDnationwide Research. Use with written permission only. All other responsibilities disclaimed. © 2014
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