12 minute read
Rabobank expects good winter for crops
grain galore
While not reaching the heights of the record 2016–17 season, Rabobank predicts the total production of Australia’s winter crops will provide welcome respite for droughtaffected farmers
At 47.4 million tonnes, Australia’s total winter crop harvest is predicted to be 63 per cent greater than last year’s and 16 per cent above the five-year average, according to forecasts released by Rabobank. In its recently released Australian Winter Crop Production Outlook 2020/2021 report, the bank says Australia is on track for a “major” recovery after three successive years of belowaverage production, due to droughts in many parts. In New South Wales the grain harvest is forecast to rise by 12 million tonnes, up 366 per cent, while Queensland’s will rise 139 per cent with a 942,000 tonne increase. But a poor start and lower rainfall in Western Australia means that while the state’s harvest volume is likely to come in above the previous year’s total, it will still be about 10 per cent below WA’s five-year average. Rabobank senior grains analyst Cheryl Kalisch Gordon says she forecasts grain exports to increase 93 per cent on last year, as production returns to average levels, grain prices remain high and the Australian dollar stays low. “A 22 per cent year-on-year increase in planted hectares, together with well-timed and above-average rainfall in most regions, support our expectations for 28.8 million tonnes of wheat, 11 million tonnes of barley and 3.3 million tonnes of canola to be harvested in Australia in 2020–21,” she says. Of this, Rabobank forecasts 19.8 million tonnes of wheat, 5.6 million tonnes of barley and 2.7 million tonnes of canola will be exported. “The last time Australia had export volumes in these ranges, the Australian dollar was 10 US cents higher and global grain prices were around 35 per cent lower than our current forecasts for the year ahead,” Kalisch Gordon says. Rabobank also noted that while many grain farmers were keen for cash flow after many years of drought, low interest rates and memories of even higher pricing could encourage some property owners to make use of their greater on-farm storage capacity – carrying stock into 2021. Barley growers in particular might be tempted to take this course of action, with Chinese tariffs on Australian barley expected to rule out significant sales in 2020–21, which is expected to be Australia’s second highest barley crop on record. “Instead sales to feed-grain markets – such as Saudi Arabia, Japan and Thailand – will dominate Australian barley exports this year,” Kalisch Gordon says.
Above: Rabobank senior grains analyst Cheryl Kalisch Gordon
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Left: The impacts of COVID-19 are being felt on tractor delivery times, according to the Tractor and Machinery Association. Image courtesy Alamy
october surprise
While good weather and historically low interest rates are positives; the picture for agricultural machinery supply is challenging, and will be for some time
Gary Northover is executive director of the Tractor & Machinery Association of Australia (TMA). He can be contacted on (03) 9813 8011 or at gary@tma.asn.au October tractor sales were up 25 per cent on the same month last year and are now up 22 per cent year to date. This outstanding result sees the full year on track to exceed the 13,000-unit mark for the first time since the 1980s. But while a strong year and the Instant Asset Write-off program has created buoyancy in the market, we are beginning to see the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on factories and shipping, and this is now impacting supply. Most dealers are not yet reporting lost business, but many are compelled to offer an alternative to buyers in order to keep sales. Lower factory output and fewer operating cargo ships mean the situation is likely to continue – adding around 12–16 weeks to most deliveries. In addition, the supply of parts remains challenging and suppliers are being hit with additional freight charges to get parts into their systems. Returning to the October result, NSW was the top performing state – up a whopping 70 per cent on the same time last year and now sitting 34 per cent ahead for the year. Victoria reported a steady month and remains 24 per cent ahead year to date (YTD); meanwhile Queensland was up 12 per cent to be 13 per cent up for the year. Western Australia sales picked up 5 per cent on the YTD, but remain 3 per cent behind last year. Sales in South Australia continue to fly, now 36 per cent up YTD and activity in Tasmania remains strong, now 28 per cent ahead for the year. The increase came almost entirely from the smaller end of the market. The under-40 horsepower (30kW) range was up 33 per cent for the month and now sits 29 per cent ahead for the YTD. The 40 to 100hp (30–75kW) range was again up strongly 41 per cent, now 24 per cent ahead for the year. The 100 to 200hp (75–150kW) category was up 12 per cent and still up 28 per cent for the YTD whilst sales in the large 200hp-plus range were steady, leaving this category 8 per cent behind YTD. Sales of combine harvesters are beginning to improve – with the full year picture likely to be around 15–20 per cent more than last year – at about 650–700. Baler sales continue their boom, up 21 per cent for the month, remaining up 31 per cent year to date; whilst sales of out-front mowers were strong and still 21 per cent ahead of the same time last year.
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events calendar
Here are a list of
events planned for
the beginning of 2021. Information was current as of going to press.
Eurobodalla Agricultural Show – Moruya
Held at the Moruya Showground in Moruya on the south coast of NSW, the Eurobodalla Agricultural Show will focus on local produce alongside animal shows, showjumping and a vintage and veteran vehicle show. WHEN: January 23-24, 2021 MORE INFO: https://eurobodallashow.org.au
Berry Show – Berry
The Berry Show is an annual agricultural show held in the picturesque rural town of Berry on the NSW south coast. The show has been promoting excellence in the local community for over 132 years. Attractions include large cattle and horse shows, working dog demonstrations, an animal nursery, rodeo, woodchop competition, rides and fireworks. WHEN: January 29-30, 2021 MORE INFO: http://berryshow.org.au
Royal Canberra Show – Canberra
The ActewAGL Royal Canberra Show, Canberra’s largest all ages event, is staged annually by the Royal National Capital Agricultural Society. While having agriculture at its core, the show has broadened over the years to reflect more entertainment, educational features and exhibitions, ensuring that there is a vibrant mix of ‘city meeting country’ and ‘country meeting city’. WHEN: February 26-28, 2021 MORE INFO: www.canberrashow.org.au
The Northern Australia Food Futures Conference is Australia’s leading conference on agricultural development in the North. Held in Darwin, Northern Territory, the program features over 50 national and international speakers, workshops, farm visits and technical sessions on cotton, grains, horticulture, fodder, forestry and niche crops. WHEN: March 1-4, 2021 MORE INFO: www.foodfuturesntfarmers.org.au
Wagin Agricultural Show and Woolorama – Wagin
Over two days, the community comes together to showcase the diversity of agricultural life in WA and how ‘ordinary things can be done extraordinarily well’. It is a fantastic day out for the whole family with lots to see and do, including prestigious livestock, art, photography, craft, home industries, fashion, rides and entertainment for all ages, plus a spectacular Rodeo on Saturday night. WHEN: March 5-6, 2021 MORE INFO: www.woolorama.com.au
Camden Show – Camden
The Camden Show provides huge exposure to exhibitors and contributors, where they are able to promote their goods and services to over 43,000 visitors over the show weekend. The Camden Show is a community event showcasing and promoting excellence in agricultural, horticultural, commercial and industrial resources in the Macarthur region through competition, exhibition and entertainment in a relaxing and enjoyable environment. WHEN: March 19-20, 2021 MORE INFO: www.camdenshow.com
Farm World – Warragul
Attracting more than 55,000 visitors and over 800 exhibitors over four days, Farm World offers a strong focus on the latest technology, equipment and information and provides an ideal opportunity to get up close and chat with the experts. WHEN: March 25-28, 2021 MORE INFO: https://lardnerpark.com.au/event/farm-world
For the full year’s calendar of events: tradefarmmachinery.com.au/events
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