Prological’s Logical Outlook

The demand for electric vehicles currently outstrips the necessary electric battery production. But that could quickly change.

THE FUTURE OF TRANSPORTATION

With auto companies spending $90 billion in electric vehicle focused research and development, the transition towards more EVs in supply chain presents challenges and opportunities. Peter Jones, Managing Director and Founder of Prological, discusses the current landscape of transportation and how it affects the Australian market.

Peter Jones, Managing Director and Founder of Prological, says electric, hybrid and hydrogen trucks can save a line-haul operator $200,000 every year per vehicle (based on 300,000kms/PA) in energy consumption alone. This is a bold and provocative statement, but data clearly shows the cost upside of replacing diesel with these more environmentally friendly options. The problem is benefits haven’t yet materialised. But much as the latest James Bond movie took a lot longer to land than we all expected, but did eventually turn up, so will sustainable energy options for freight and logistics.

ELECTRIC VEHICLES

Peter says there’s one major problem stopping the uptake of electric vehicles.

“The onset of electric powered vehicles in the supply chain is hampered by the world’s inability to produce enough batteries fast enough,” he says. “Electric car uptake is accelerating so quickly – which makes sense given it’s a popularity-winner for governments – so that’s where the mining, metals processing, and battery manufacturing resources are being steered to.”

Since the first Toyota Prius was released around the world in 2000, commentary arose about what the world will do environmentally with all the used batteries. Peter notes that the concerns implicit in such questions have become more quiet because batteries have lasted longer than initial predicted. Global battery manufacturers have also worked out how to recycle them.

“Given the early batteries have lasted longer than expected, you’d imagine the batteries being developed today will last ever longer as technology progresses.

Indeed, KIA has a seven-year warranty on its battery packs and Tesla an industry-leading eight years, at more than 70 per cent of its ‘when new’ design capability.

“The demand is here for electric vehicles within supply chain, and businesses are beginning to prioritise access within their purchasing processes,” Peter says. “And yet as an Australian transport industry we’re a million miles away from being able to support that. Prological recently ran a tender for a $20 million freight task where environmental sustainability was a key criterion. We issued this to the Australian transport industry and didn’t receive anything accessible which would make a demonstrable difference to what the company is doing today – not even close.”

Last November, PepsiCo CEO Ramon Laguarta surprised the electric vehicle community by announcing the imminent delivery of the first Tesla Semi. “In 2017 Pepsi placed a reserve on 100 ‘Tractors’ (US English for ‘Prime Mover’), of which 15 were supposed to be delivered in Q4 of 2021. There have been delays. The tractors use the new 4680 battery cells, the current demand for which drastistically outstrips supply.”

There’s a multitude of reasons for the adoption of electric trucks. Topping the list are the two key drivers: reductions in CO2 emissions and savings on energy costs.

“Effectively, the consumable energy costs in an electric truck are around 25 per cent of those for an internal combustion engine,” Peter says. “Uptake will also help the smell and sound of our cities, so the case for Metropolitan distribution is absolutely there today.

“Prological is currently designing a large warehouse with a self-sustaining energy (multi-technology) system which can support ten fully electric, metropolitan facing vehicles – as well as the facility – 24/7. That design criterion is reasonably straightforward to work with as is access to the technology to implement it. Commercially it also makes good sense. The difficulty will be getting access to the ten vehicles.”

Electric rigid trucks have a strong case for implementation in metropolitan distribution but are less suited for longer

journeys. Considering the Australian interstate linehaul distances and linehaul truck sizes (B-Doubles, Super-B’s, A-Doubles etc.) and CML-HML load capabilities, electrification of this task is a long way away, he says.

“The longest-range electric vehicle currently operating is the Tesla Semi, which has a range of 650 kilometres at approximately 20T. Most trucks in development have less range. So, what’s the possible solution for longhaul operations at 62.5-68T GVMs into the future?”

HYDROGEN

Despite clear challenges, hydrogen powered vehicles have potential for transporting products between Australian cities and states. The problem for now is the infrastructure for storing, distributing, and refuelling remains relatively immature and expensive. However, Peter notes the success of hydrogen-powered vehicles in countries like Switzerland, where Hydrogen powered linehaul units have proven very effective.

“Switzerland is in the process of taking delivery of 1600 hydrogen powered prime movers built by Hyundai,” he says. “40 have been delivered already and June 2021 marked the first time one covered 1 million kms. The balance of the 1600 strong fleet will be operational by the end of 2025. Making hydrogen is electricity-intensive but it’s almost three times more energy-dense than fossil fuels. Switzerland has almost 100 per cent renewable energy and functionally unlimited supply through their vast hydro powered grid. In Switzerland today green hydrogen is a reality. H2 Energy AG are leading the development of zero emission green hydrogen industry and have numerous projects at various levels of development in Australia as well. They also have generous support programmes for companies wanting to become involved in development within Australia. Globally, transport accounts for about 23 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions and H2 Energy believe they are a significant player in the reducing this emissions number.

“In 2023, Australia will become the first country in the world to power up one of GE’s 9F hybrid gas-hydrogen turbines for grid electricity. This is happening just 15kms from Prological’s head office, here in the Illawarra. Having the world’s most cost-effective hydrogen plant will only increase the opportunity for hydrogen vehicles in the supply chain.”

Predictions are that hydrogen equipment costs will decline by up to 70 percent by 2030, driven by larger market volumes and use of the equipment across several applications, Peter adds. This will mean hydrogen fuel cell power units will become viable alternatives to both diesel and full electric trucks within this timeframe.

The consumable energy costs in an electric truck are around 25 per cent of those for an internal combustion engine, says Prological’s Peter Jones.

DRIVERLESS VEHICLES

No longer a scene out of The Jetsons or Back to The Future, driverless vehicles are a real opportunity for supply chain and have been for some time. Going off successful trials in Europe, Peter says autonomous trucks can work in Australia.

“Autonomous vehicles could be running today between a platooning station on the outskirts of Melbourne through to Campbelltown on the southern outskirts of Sydney,” he says. “If four trucks are driven to the platooning station, immediately adjacent to the freeway, the vehicles can electronically be ‘hooked up’ and get on their way.” European trials on public roads more complex than the Hume Highway have been successful for years now. In May 2021 Californian company Tu-Simple operated a successful trial of a driverless prime mover with trailer from Nogales Arizona to Oklahoma City – a distance of 1450kms.

Peter notes that driverless vehicles can improve safety and mitigate against the growing industry challenge of ageing truck drivers, while decreasing operating costs for fuel, drivers, and equipment

“Monitored computer systems also support reductions in human error risks involved in highway driving,” he says. “So, as interstate driver shortages intensify, technology can step in while both the consumer and the nation benefit from the decrease in overall supply chain costs. This technology can operate on just a few roads within Australia, but these are also our busiest freight corridors.

“In short, electric trucks make sense for many metropolitan tasks today. Like electric cars, they will transition from extremely rare today to relatively common within the next few years.

“Electric powered prime movers from Tesla, Nikola, Mercedes, Freightliner, Volvo, Hino, Scania and others in their current phases of development may find a place in regional linehaul and certainly within metropolitan prime mover fleets. Demand, however, will be well ahead of supply. This will be the constraint to industry uptake.”

Electric powered interstate linehaul within an Australian context is a long way off at best, and certainly will not be taking over from Cummings or Detroit Diesel any time soon, Peter says. “However, hydrogen has possibilities. Switzerland has made it work at the operational level and is now developing economies of scale coupled with unsupported commercial viability. Australia has the environment to follow Switzerland’s lead and the European companies leading this work are already investing here.” ■