Bookends of Displacement

BOOKENDS OF DISPLACEMENT

Understanding the Role of Data in Early Warning and Durable Solutions for Internally Displaced Persons

BOOKENDS OF DISPLACEMENT: UNDERSTANDING THE ROLE OF DATA IN EARLY WARNING AND DURABLE SOLUTIONS FOR INTERNALLY DISPLACED POPULATIONS

Report prepared for the International Organization for Migration (IOM) Global Data Institute by Master in Public Affairs students at the Princeton University School of Public and International Affairs. The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of IOM.

AUTHORS

MikaylahLadue

DenisseChavarría

BrontëForsgren

GregGuggenmos

KristinaLorch

FunkeAderonmu

TNangSengPan

FACULTYADVISOR

BrianKelly

VisitingLecturer,PrincetonUniversitySchoolofPublicandInternationalAffairs(SPIA)

EDITORS

BrontëForsgren

DenisseChavarría

MikaylahLadue

TRAVELLOGISTICSLEAD

FunkeAderonmu

KristinaLorch

GRAPHICSDESIGNER

MikaylahLadue

CONTRIBUTOR

ZoëGorman

A C K N O W L E D G E M E N T S

The authors are sincerely grateful to the many people who supported this policy workshop and informed the findings of this report We would like to give special thanks to Brian Kelly, our faculty advisor, for his mentorship and guidance throughout the workshop. Our thanks also go to Dean Amaney Jamal, Senior Associate Dean Paul

Lipton, Associate Dean Karen McGuinness, Finance and Operations Manager Shannon Presha, Faculty Assistant Cecylia Jablonski, and the rest of the Princeton University School of Public and International Affairs Graduate Office team for their efforts in making this workshop possible

We would like to express gratitude to the following individuals, organizations, and community leaders for their insights, perspectives, and willingness to meet with and host us over the course of this workshop

Adamawa State Emergency Management Agency and Ministry for Reconstruction, Rehabilitation, Reintegration and Humanitarian Services (RRR)

HE Bello Hamman Diram, Honorable Commissioner

American University of Nigeria (AUN)

Attahir B Yusuf, DVC, Vice President of Academic Affairs and Provost

Patrick Fay, Dean, School of Arts and Sciences

Hajia Toure, Atiku Institute

Rukkaiyatu Bashir Ribadu, Director, Centre for Women Empowerment and Youth Development, Atiku Institute

Abdisalam Umar, United Nations Development Programme

Abdoulaye Sabi’u, United Nations Development Programme

Adamu Saad, Faculty, School of Social Science

Federal University of Technology (FUTY)

Inuwa Jafaru, Deputy Vice Chancellor

Jude Momodu, Director, Centre for Peace and Security Studies

Owonikoko Babajide, Coordinator, Graduate Programmes

Georgetown University

Elizabeth Ferris, Research Professor; Director, Institute for the Study of International Migration (ISIM)

Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC)

Vicente Anzellini, Global and Regional Analysis Manager

Ivana Hajžmanová, Global Monitoring Manager

International Organization for Migration (IOM), Abuja Office

Laurent De Boeck, Chief of Mission

Paula Pace, Deputy Chief of Mission

IOM COMITAS Project, Yola

Jabula Elijah Bello, Field Operations, Displacement Tracking Mechanism (DTM)

Dessalegn Gurmessa, DESSO, DTM

Abraham Oluseye Kolade, Senior Information Assistant, DTM

Amos Njoroge Nderi, Project Manager

Esther Avindia, Mobility

IOM Coordination Staff, Abuja

Ikechukwu Attah, National Protocol Officer

Blessing Soeze, Human Resources Assistant

Maureen Chinenye Ezeanya, Senior Program Assistant

Silas Ogheneworo Uruwarie, Logistics Assistant

Fawziya Mohammed Bornoma, Procurement Assistant

Patricia Onome Ogeh, Admin, DTM

IOM Displacement Tracking Mechanism (DTM), Maiduguri

Denis Martin Andrew Wani, Head

IOM Global Data Institute

Muhammed Rizki, Global Coordinator, DTM

Prithvi Hirani, Humanitarian Data Programme Officer, DTM

Stuart Campo, Data Impact Officer/Consultant

Robert (Rob) Trigwell, Senior Coordination Officer, DTM

Sarah Fekih, Data Management Officer, DTM

A C K N O W L E D G E M E N T S

Damien Jusselme, Data and Impacts

Analytics Team Lead, Global Migration Data Analysis Centre

Robert Beyer, Data and Research Analyst, Migration, Environment, Climate Change and Risk Reduction (MECR)

IOM Global Headquarters, Geneva

Siobhan Simojoki, Resilience and Recovery Advisor, Transition and Recovery Division

Sam Grundy, Chief, Transition and Recovery Division

Joe Slowey, Operations Manager, Global Support Team

Nicholas Bishop, Disaster Risk Reduction Lead

Hugo Brandam, Disaster Risk Reduction Project Manager

Charles Sell, Internal Displacement Officer

Damien Fresnel, Emergency Preparedness Officer, Preparedness and Response Division

Fatma Said, Emergency Preparedness

Kristina Uzelac, Program Coordinator, DTM

Shannon Hayes, Humanitarian Data Expert, Department of Field Support

IOM Livelihoods Sector, Yola

Ahmed Asekome, Livelihoods Focal Point

IOM Head of Office, Yola

Maliki Hamidine, Head of Sub-Office

Ameh Celestin, Mental Health and Psycho-social Support

IOM Regional Data Hub West Africa

Luisa Baptista de Freitas, Regional Data and Research Unit Head

David Musombi, Project Officer, DTM

IOM Shelter and Housing, Land Property, Yola

Bittinger Mshelia, Housing, Land and Property Officer

Ezekiel Ava'abem Aguh, Shelter Technical Supervisor

IOM Washington, D.C. Office

Vincent Houver, Chief of Mission

Kathleen (Katie) Kerr, Senior Program Officer

Joseph Ashmore, Head, Emergency Preparedness and Response Coordination Support Unit

Malkohi New City (Durable Solutions)

Umaru Abubakar, Community Leader

REACH for Impact

Katie Rickard, Director of Global Programmes

United States Agency for International Development (USAID)

David Alpher, Conflict and Violence Prevention Integrator

United States Department of State Bureau of Populations, Refugees, and Migration (PRM)

Seth Perlman, Data Scientist

Catherine Steidl, Global Migration Data Advisor

United States Department of State Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations (CSO)

Gray Barrett, Foreign Affairs Officer

Srividya Dasaraju, Foreign Affairs Officer

United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), Yola

Elsie Bertha Mills-Tettey, Head of Field Office

Ronnie Harold Miroh, Durable Solutions Officer

United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA)

Momsiri Wesley Gambo, Humanitarian Affairs Officer

Leonardo Milano, Data Science Team Lead, Centre for Humanitarian Data

World Food Programme (WFP) Anja Palm, Early Warning Conflict Risk Analyst

World Bank (WB)

Catherine Defontaine, Senior Operations Officer, Fragility, Conflict and Violence Group

Yale University

Nathaniel Raymond, Lecturer, Jackson Institute for Global Affairs; Executive Director, Humanitarian Research Lab, School of Public Health

A C R O N Y M S

COMITAS

CRN

DII

DMS

DSEG

DSID

DTM

EW

HHI

IASC

ICRC

IDMC IDP

IFRC IOM ISIL LGBTQI+

Conflict Assessment Report in Ten Communities in Adamawa State

Community Response Network

Demographically Identifiable Information

Disaster Management System

Data Science and Ethics Group

Data for Solutions to Internal Displacement

Displacement Tracking Matrix

Early Warning

Harvard Humanitarian Initiative

Inter-Agency Standing Committee

International Committee of the Red Cross

Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre

Internally Displaced Person

International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

International Organization for Migration

Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant

Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, Queer, and Intersex

Non-Governmental Organization

United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs

Personally Identifiable Information

Periodic Global Report on the State of Solutions to Internal Displacement

Reseau Billital Maroobe

Registro Único de Victimias (Single Registry of Victims)

Self-Reliance Index

Transhumance Tracking Tool

United Nations

UNGA

UNHCR

United Nations General Assembly

United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Refugees

World Bank

D E F I N I T I O N S

Displacement: Displacement indicates the “movement of persons who have been forced or obliged to flee or to leave their homes or places of habitual residence,” with causes including but not limited to: armed conflict, generalized violence, human rights violations, development, and disasters caused by natural hazards or of human origin.¹

Cross-border displacement: displacement across national borders.

Internal displacement: displacement within the borders of a sovereign nation.²

Durable Solutions: Our research finds that internally displaced persons find “durable solutions” to their displacement when they no longer face needs related to their displacement and when they can exercise their rights without discrimination because of their displacement ³

Early Warning: Early warning is a process to detect and analyze the increasing risk of conflict or crisis Early warning can lead to anticipatory action, including before a displacement event occurs ⁴

Host Community: Host communities are the communities that host internally displaced persons and refugees after a displacement event occurs

Integration: Integration is a “two-way process of mutual adaptation between migrants and the societies in which they live, whereby migrants are incorporated into the social, economic, cultural and political life of the receiving community” that “entails a set of joint responsibilities for migrants and communities, and incorporates other related notions such as social inclusion and social cohesion ” Integration does not require permanent residence ⁵

Internally Displaced Person: Persons or groups of persons forced or obliged to flee or leave their homes or places of residence due to various drivers (see Displacement) and who have not crossed an internationally recognized State border but remain within their same nation.⁶

Key Informants: Key informants are essential primary sources of information. Key informants are well versed about their communities, communities’ inhabitants, the site visited, and/or the disaster, because of professional background, leadership role, or personal experience Key informants include, for example, local civil, community, government, religious, and tribal leaders ⁷

Local Integration: Local integration, in the context of internal displacement, is a process of integration into a host community where an internally displaced person has sought refuge that enables the achievement of durable solutions

Reintegration: Reintegration, in the context of displacement, is a process of integration following an individual’s return to their community of origin that enables the achievement of durable solutions

Returnee: A returnee is an individual who goes back to their original point of departure Returns can be voluntary or forced ⁸

Settlement Elsewhere: Settlement elsewhere, in the context of displacement, is a process of integration elsewhere in the country, not in the community where the internally displaced person has sought refuge, that enables the achievement of durable solutions

Transhumance: Transhumance is the action or practice of moving livestock from one grazing ground to another in a seasonal cycle, typically to lowlands in winter and highlands in summer.⁹

E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y

In 2022, over 71 million people worldwide were displaced within the borders of their own countries. The increasing global magnitude and scope of internal displacement requires direct, clear, and actionable solutions to improve the lives of those experiencing this displacement. An understanding of the best ways to prevent displacement, mitigate its harms when it occurs, and create comprehensive, durable solutions for those who have been displaced is a key aim of the global humanitarian community, including the United Nations International Organization for Migration (IOM).

This report states that creating durable solutions to displacement is best viewed as part of an ongoing solutions pathway rather than a final status In doing so, it expands upon the concept of a solutions pathway, introduced by the Data for Solutions to Internal Displacement (DSID) Task Force and incorporated into the first iteration of the Periodic Global Report on the State of Solutions to Internal Displacement (‘PROGRESS Report’) The proposed Internal Displacement Solutions Pathway Framework (‘Solutions Pathway Framework’), anchored in a resilience framework, envisions solutions to displacement as including the continuum of prevention and response and the constantly evolving context of preparedness, risk, and recovery as they relate to mobility. The resilience framework strengthens the Solutions Pathway Framework by placing resiliency at the core of internal displacement The deterioration of resilience can inhibit a community’s response to displacement, while establishing resilience can support durable solutions Accordingly, the Solutions Pathway Framework specifically delineates three phases to the solution pathway: early warning, identifying fractures in resiliency and promoting resiliency; short-term humanitarian assistance, responding to shocks to resiliency; and durable solutions, rebuilding and stabilizing resiliencies within communities These three phases connect early warning to the overall attainment of durable solutions, including recognizing that understanding the drivers and root causes of internal displacement to guide prevention in the first place is a valuable tool to create lasting, durable solutions Importantly, the Solutions Pathway Framework mandates collaborative, dynamic, and sustained community engagement in all relevant processes, including data collection and analysis

Using the Solutions Pathway Framework as a foundation, the report expands to explore key understandings of the data sets, tools, and concepts used to analyze each phase, with a particular emphasis on early warning and durable solutions All phases rely on quantitative and qualitative data collection and analysis to provide insight into evolving displacement dynamics, which raises significant ethical considerations and concerns. Many data ethics questions are context dependent, shifting based on the culture and crisis at hand, meaning there is no globally applicable framework to deconflict ethical issues that may arise This report builds upon existing ethical frameworks to delineate clear, universal recommendations for data collection and analysis, alongside specific, nuanced considerations that must be accounted for within different contexts

E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y

Beginning with prevention, we have collected a non-exhaustive list of early warning systems, data resources, and tools relevant to the specific drivers of internal displacement: conflict, development-induced displacement, situations of violence, violations of human rights, and disasters caused by natural hazards or of human origin. Early warning systems attuned to these drivers can provide an opportunity to predict when displacement may occur and appropriately respond to such a prediction.

Once displacement has occurred, the focus shifts to the provision of immediate, short-term assistance, including protection mechanisms, and the establishment of long-term, durable solutions A question central to these responses is when displacement ends, but there is no consensus within current literature and practice as to when internal displacement ends In our analysis of durable solutions, we propose that the end of displacement is best viewed as the confluence of multiple factors: the end of displacement-related vulnerabilities, the prioritization of individual needs, and the end of physical displacement (defined as physically residing in a community that differs from the preferred location of residence), if desired This approach is inclusive of integration into the community of displacement, reintegration into the community of origin, and resettlement elsewhere Regarding durable solutions, the report reviews existing datasets and tools that may assist in measuring and analyzing whether durable solutions have been attained It further recommends the application of a set of criteria to assist in this determination, as well as in determining whether such solutions remain durable Importantly, this requires continued data collection and monitoring

We finalize our report with a list of conclusions and recommendations regarding approaches to data collection and analysis, early warning, and durable solutions as they relate to internal displacement. We propose that these findings may be built upon in future iterations of the PROGRESS Report.

K E Y T A K E A W A Y S

There are five key priorities for ethical data collection along the continuum of displacement, including for prevention and durable solutions:

Safeguard participants’ agency in data use and collection, Protect individual privacy, Keep data secure,

Maintain visibility and transparency of data use, and Ensure accountable partnerships

To ensure implementation of these key priorities, an organization must:

Identify its needs and priorities, Assess its existing competencies, Align with relevant legal and ethical standards, Identify when data collection should be initiated and terminated, and Implement feedback mechanisms

Ethical data collection and analysis, particularly for qualitative data, should: include informed consent; be founded upon trauma-informed approaches; apply an intersectional perspective that recognizes how different identities can increase vulnerabilities; establish clear guidelines on when collection and analysis should be terminated, including relevant safety and security protocols; and incorporate dynamic and flexible feedback mechanisms.

The decentralized structure of the humanitarian community, in addition to financial and human capital constraints, limits the feasibility of an external ethics review board to monitor whether data collection and analysis align with appropriate ethical guidelines In lieu of an ethics review board, organizations should adopt a two-pronged approach inclusive of (1) appointing an ethics advisor(s) at an organization’s headquarters, and (2) establishing a stakeholder working group at the local level that is inclusive of the internally displaced population, personnel from the humanitarian country team, and on-the-ground prevention, humanitarian, development, and government actors The IOM Global Data Institute (‘Global Data Institute’) should work alongside the ethics advisor(s) in coordination and advisory capacities.

An internal displacement solutions pathway framework that is inclusive of early warning, humanitarian assistance, and long-term durable solutions is critical to incorporate ethical approaches into solutions to internal displacement and ensure collaborative, dynamic, and sustained engagement of internally displaced populations

Resiliency should be a core component of an internal displacement solutions pathway framework. As a component of early warning, actors can identify fractures in resiliency that increase vulnerability to internal displacement, identify existing resiliency to strengthen early response to the drivers of internal displacement, and promote the development of resiliency to strengthen future response Humanitarian actors, through short-term assistance, support communities after experiencing shocks to their resiliency. Resiliency also strengthens durable solutions by bolstering an internally displaced population’s ability to adapt to and recover in their new environments

K E Y T A K E A W A Y S

Early warning must include early action and response to effectively prevent displacement, mitigate its duration, and respond to its harms. An early warning and response mechanism will broadly consist of seven components: triggers, indicators, sensors, signals, actions, actors, and feedback mechanisms

Given the various drivers of displacement, it is logistically and technically infeasible to create a single early warning system to forecast internal displacement. The Global Data Institute should prioritize integrating IOM into existing early warning and response mechanisms to ensure the organization can respond once the warning of a driver of displacement occurs. The Global Data Institute should further coordinate to share datasets, tools, and best practices, when appropriate; consult on data collection and analysis approaches; and assist in developing new early warning and response mechanisms

Although humanitarian and development assistance are often viewed as separate, discrete forms of aid, both forms should be used in tandem to prevent service interruption and deepen resilience in populations facing displacement. Designating internally displaced person (IDP) coordination focal points within a variety of organizations could facilitate this cooperation

When displacement ends is still unresolved but should be viewed as the confluence of several factors, rather than a single measurement or end state. These factors include:

The end of displacement-related vulnerabilities, which can include strengthening community resilience;

The prioritization of individual needs; and

The end of physical displacement, defined as physically residing in a community that differs from the preferred location of residence, if desired.

This definition indicates that an individual can no longer be displaced but still

still experience vulnerabilities

The following criteria should be applied to determine when a solution has been achieved or whether it remains durable:

Long-term safety and security

Freedom of movement.

Adequate standard of living.

Sustainable livelihoods and economic stability

Access to rights and services

Empowerment through self-sufficiency

Community integration and social cohesion

Psychosocial support and mental well-being. Participation in public affairs.

A durable solution may not truly be durable in the long term, even if it has been established by governments and aid agencies or agreed upon by IDPs and host communities, when applicable. Continued monitoring is needed to ensure that solutions are durable for all segments of the internally displaced population, that community buy-in remains, and that no new displacement-related vulnerabilities have arisen

PROJECT OVERVIEW AND METHODOLOGY

The analysis and recommendations detailed in this report responded to a set of questions from the project client, the Global Data Institute The research questions centered on the “bookends” of internal displacement, namely: early warning, when displacement might occur, and durable solutions, when displacement ends The specific research questions are noted below

PROJECT RESEARCH QUESTIONS

EARLY WARNING

What data tools/sets, IOM or non-IOM, are helpful in giving early warning about forced displacement?

What are the ethical issues and other political, social, or cultural challenges associated with collecting and analyzing this information?

What resources are required to ethically collect and analyze data about forced displacement?

DURABLE SOLUTIONS

Can displacement end before an individual’s preferred durable solution is achieved?

What data tools/sets, IOM or non-IOM, are helpful in analyzing this?

What are the ethical issues and other political, social, or cultural challenges associated with collecting and analyzing this information?

What resources are required to ethically collect and analyze data about the ending of displacement?

To address the client’s questions, our team conducted research between September 2023 and January 2024, and deployed multiple research methods, including desk research, field research, and interviews.

Desk Research: Prior to stakeholder interviews, the project team conducted background research on a wide variety of relevant topics, including background on early warning, useful early warning tools, data collection, durable solutions to internal displacement, and ethical issues surrounding displacement. The team reviewed existing datasets and tools used to inform understanding of early warning systems and indicators to measure durable solutions, as well as the ethical considerations in collecting and analyzing data from vulnerable populations experiencing conflict and humanitarian crises. The aim of this research was to understand the context and breadth of early warning systems and durable solutions tools used within humanitarian and migration contexts.

As a component of the desk research, the project team considered several country situations to delve deeper into how displacement, ethics, and durable solutions exist in practice. The report features three detailed case studies on Colombia, Iraq, and Nigeria, and has relied upon rich insights and experiences from other country contexts.

Field Research: During a trip to Nigeria in October 2023, members of the project team visited the Malkohi Durable Solutions site for displaced persons in Yola, Adamawa State, established by the United Nations Office of the High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) With support from IOM staff, we interviewed a local community leader to learn more about the community’s perspective on their displacement and durable solutions This field research informed and enriched the Nigeria case studies and our overall understanding of displacement from the perspective of the displaced Nigeria is further a priority country under the United Nations (UN) Secretary-General’s Action Agenda on Internal Displacement, discussed below, and experiences several drivers of internal displacement

Interviews: The project team conducted a series of in-person interviews with stakeholders to gather insights from IOM headquarters and country offices. Interviews were conducted in Yola, and Abuja, Nigeria; Geneva, Switzerland; and Washington, D.C., United States. Additionally, the project team held several virtual and inperson interviews while at Princeton University.

In addition to IOM staff, we interviewed a wide variety of stakeholders and subject matter experts, including government officials in Nigeria and the United States, academic researchers in Nigeria and the United States, community leaders, and stakeholders from the UNHCR and World Bank (WB), among others. A full list of organizations and individuals who were interviewed or who presented to the group is detailed in the Acknowledgements section of this report. Interview questions were loosely structured by the guiding research questions to enable identification of overarching themes. Team members adapted their questions to the relevant stakeholders. The interview questions centered on:

Design and implementation of early warning systems

Indicators to measure durable solutions or the end of displacement

Data sets and information sources to inform early warning analysis and measures of durable solutions

Ethical, social, and other non-technical considerations with collecting and using data to inform early warning systems and durable solutions

The report findings and recommendations further build on several frameworks for understanding and measuring progress on preventing and ending displacement. These frameworks include:

Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement: The 1998 presentation of the Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement (‘Guiding Principles’) to the UN Commission on Human Rights established the foundational framework for protecting and recognizing the rights of IDPs. In all, the thirty delineated principles detail recommended protections across all stages of displacement, including preventing displacement, protection while in displacement, guidelines for humanitarian assistance, and protections while pursuing a durable solution of return, integration, or resettlement. The principles also restate that national governments are primarily responsible for ensuring access to rights and resources for IDPs within their borders, although assistance from the international community is also affirmed. Although the Guiding Principles are not legally binding, they are officially recognized as an authoritative framework on internal displacement by the UN General Assembly (UNGA).¹⁰

United Nations Secretary-General’s Action Agenda on Internal Displacement: As a follow-up to the Secretary-General’s High-Level Panel on Internal Displacement, the Action Agenda on Internal Displacement (‘Action Agenda’) lays out the Secretary-General’s vision for ending displacement to mobilize governments and the international community to make commitments toward advancing durable solutions.¹¹ solutions.¹¹

solutions ¹¹ The Action Agenda builds on existing UN agency frameworks and includes the following overarching goals:

The Action Agenda builds on existing UN agency frameworks and includes the following overarching goals:

Helping IDPs find durable solutions to displacement, Preventing new displacement crises from emerging, and Providing effective protection and assistance to IDPs

Inter-Agency Standing Committee Framework on Durable Solutions: The Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC) Framework on Durable Solutions (‘IASC Framework’) aims to define and clarify the concept of durable solutions stemming from a rights-based approach ensuring IDPs:

Can voluntarily make informed choices on their preferred durable solution,

Can participate in the planning and management of durable solutions, Have access to humanitarian and development actors, and Are involved in peacebuilding processes in cases where their displacement was driven by conflict or violence.

In line with this approach, the IASC Framework details eight criteria to determine the extent to which durable solutions to displacement have been achieved for a population of IDPs These criteria involve:

In line with this approach, the IASC Framework details eight criteria to determine the extent to which durable solutions to displacement have been achieved for a population of IDPs. These criteria involve:

Long-term safety, security, and freedom of movement

Access to employment and livelihoods

Access to effective mechanisms to restore housing, land and property

Access to personal and other documentation without discrimination

Family reunification

Participation in public affairs

Access to effective remedies for displacement-related violations

These criteria are all underpinned by the principle of non-discrimination, including discrimination on the basis of their displacement or any other grounds. They also serve as benchmarks for measuring progress made toward achieving durable solutions.¹²

These criteria are all underpinned by the principle of non-discrimination, including discrimination on the basis of displacement or any other grounds They also serve as benchmarks for measuring progress made toward achieving durable solutions ¹²

Periodic Global Report on the State of Solutions to Internal Displacement: The Periodic Global Report on the State of Solutions to Internal Displacement (‘PROGRESS Report’), released by Institute for the Study of International Migration at Georgetown University and the Global Data Institute, furthers the Action Agenda and IASC Framework by asserting that obtaining durable solutions to displacement is a process or pathway rather than a final state. According to the report, data can be leveraged to assess the progress of humanitarian actors and IDPs themselves in moving along the pathway from displacement to durable solutions. The PROGRESS report offers an approach to understanding how and when durable solutions can be achieved, with an emphasis on self-reliance that involves economic well-being, adequate housing, and social inclusion as requisites for IDPs to embark on the durable solutions pathway.¹³ The PROGRESS Report is the first iteration in a series of reports intended to “contribute to a people-centered, data-driven foundation for IOM’s work.”

These frameworks, alongside the desk research, field research, and interviews, have informed the development of the report and its content.¹⁴

BACKGROUND

As of 2022, there are an estimated 71 1 million IDPs across the world Although internal displacement occurs globally, nearly 75% of all IDPs live within ten countries: Syria, Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ukraine, Colombia, Ethiopia, Yemen, Nigeria, Somalia, and Sudan ¹⁵

With the increase in displacement globally, there is a growing concern to ensure coordinated efforts to end displacement Ending displacement, however, has been a topic of global concern for decades At the 78th session of UNGA, Secretary-General António Guterres noted that “the plight of internally displaced persons is more than a humanitarian issue It takes an integrated approach combining development, peacebuilding, human rights, climate action, and disaster risk reduction efforts ”¹⁶

Given the continually growing crisis of displacement, it is imperative that solutions to ending displacement take an integrated approach among prevention, humanitarian, development, and government actors to ensure that these solutions are durable

DRIVERS OF DISPLACEMENT

Conflict and violence represent one of the most prominent drivers of displacement worldwide In fact, as of December 2022, conflict and violence left 62 5 million people living in displacement across 65 countries and territories ¹⁷ Armed conflicts, civil unrest, ethnic tensions, and persecution compel millions to flee their homelands in search of safety and security The looming threat of violence serves as a catalyst for such involuntary migration

Natural hazards are additionally culpable, accounting for 8 7 million people internally displaced in 88 countries and territories as of 2022 ¹⁸ Events like floods, earthquakes, hurricanes, and wildfires cause destruction to habitations, rendering communities uninhabitable The aftermath of these catastrophes often leaves people with no choice but to seek refuge elsewhere until their homes can be rebuilt, a process that might span years

Environmental changes, exacerbated by climate change, contribute significantly to displacement Rising sea levels, droughts, deforestation, and soil degradation render certain areas inhospitable, compelling communities to relocate to more sustainable environments compelling communities to relocate to more sustainable environments

Moreover, development-induced displacement, a consequence of infrastructure projects or economic development initiatives, significantly impacts populations. An estimated 15 million people per year worldwide are forced from their homes to make way for infrastructure construction.¹⁹ These large-scale construction projects, urbanization, and industrialization often displace people from their homes without adequate compensation or resettlement plans.

Political instability and violations of human rights further propel individuals to abandon their residences Oppressive regimes, persecution based on ethnicity or beliefs, and the denial of fundamental freedoms push people to flee, seeking sanctuary in places that may offer some semblance of safety

Socioeconomic factors also play a pivotal role Poverty, economic hardships, and the lack of viable livelihood opportunities coerce many to undertake arduous journeys in search of better prospects In pursuit of improved living conditions, individuals migrate within or across borders, often facing impossible challenges along the way

TYPE AND LENGTH OF DISPLACEMENT

Displacement differs in type and length Displacement can take the form of internal or external displacement Internal displacement, which this report focuses on, is when people have been forced or obliged to move to another area in their country External displacement or cross-border displacement occurs when people have to leave their country of origin Displacement varies greatly in duration, influenced by the underlying drivers of displacement and the efficacy of interventions to address them Some displacements are temporary, and individuals are displaced for short periods (usually for a few weeks to a few months only) until conditions in their native regions stabilize, allowing them to return home

Conversely, protracted displacement persists for extended periods, often spanning years, decades, or generations Prolonged drivers of displacement can trap individuals in a state of uncertainty, forcing them to reside in temporary camps or settlements, struggling to regain a sense of normalcy In the most severe cases, displacement can be permanent Some of the causes of displacement, such as conflicts and disasters caused by natural hazards, may render return impossible, resulting in the permanent relocation of affected populations to new areas

These differences in the length of displacement depend greatly on the nature and intensity of the triggering events For instance, conflict often results in prolonged and widespread displacement, leading to longer durations, while disasters caused by natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, or hurricanes might lead to temporary displacement, varying in length based on the scale and intensity of the calamity

Governmental policies, humanitarian aid, and the efficacy of response mechanisms also contribute to disparities in the length of internal displacement Efficient government intervention, well-coordinated humanitarian assistance, and timely provision of aid can help shorten the duration of displacement by facilitating a swift return, resettlement, or integration of affected populations On the other hand, having bureaucratic hurdles, inadequate aid, or political instability may prolong displacement, exacerbating the length and severity of the crisis

INTRODUCTION TO THE SOLUTIONS PATHWAY FRAMEWORK

Our report contributes to the foundation laid by the PROGRESS Report, which builds off the work of the DSID Task Force. The DSID introduced the concept of a solutions pathway, which “begins when an IDP is no longer in displacement, either due to moving to a location of solution (return or resettlement locations), or has decided to locally integrate in the area of displacement (local integration, however, has not yet overcome their displacement-related vulnerabilities.”²⁰

We believe that the solutions pathway established in the PROGRESS report provides a powerful mechanism for analyzing strategic decisions around the collection, analysis, and deployment of data-driven insights. Our aim is to enhance the ethical deployment of data in each stage to drive improved outcomes, and ultimately more quickly and fairly allow displaced people to move through the solutions pathway to durable solutions. Moreover, we believe that the first principle for any data strategy should be helping governments “shift from reactive assistance over long periods to beginning solutions pathways early in the displacement experience.”²¹

This report expands the proposed solutions pathway in two ways: by adding the use of early warning systems to prevent displacement before it begins and by clearly delineating three phases along the solutions pathway, each containing unique challenges and ethical considerations

Our Internal Displacement Solutions Pathway Framework (‘Solutions Pathway Framework’), which expands on the concept of the solutions pathway presented by the DSID, envisions solutions to internal displacement as encompassing measures ranging from early warning to the implementation of durable solutions

To account for situations of ongoing and protracted conflict and crisis, the Solutions Pathway Framework is not organized temporally This is illustrated by anchoring the solutions pathway within the resilience framework, which captures evolving dynamics of preparedness, risk, and recovery The resiliency framework also helps manage tensions between short- and long-term imperatives and between humanitarian and development programming, aligning with the Action Agenda

There are three primary components of the Solutions Pathway Framework:

1.

Early warning. Early warning requires understanding the root causes and drivers of internal displacement to guide prevention efforts. Early warning involves identifying the fractures in resiliency that may be present in a community, in part so that action can be taken to promote stronger resiliencies.

2.

Short-term assistance. Short-term assistance, including protective mechanisms, typically takes the form of humanitarian assistance. This assistance is delivered in moments where conflict, crisis, and disasters create shocks to resiliency.

3.

Durable solutions. Durable solutions require building stabilizing, long-term resiliencies within communities. They include, among other priorities, the end of physical displacement.

The Solutions Pathway Framework also notes the various stakeholders typically involved in internal displacement, including prevention, humanitarian, and development actors. Beyond these stakeholders, it also includes government actors to highlight government obligations, encourage government ownership, and ensure interagency collaboration. A collaborative approach is needed between all stakeholders along each phase of the pathway. This approach will look different in different communities, particularly due to variations in state capacity or government complicity in internal displacement.

Most importantly, this Solutions Pathway Framework states that all aspects of the solutions pathway require collaborative, dynamic, and community engagement. A solutions pathway is not sufficiently meaningful or inclusive if it does not integrate the voices of affected communities.

This expanded Solutions Pathway Framework provides important advantages:

Connects the decisions and challenges of engaging with early warning systems to the ultimate goal of achieving durable solutions

Allows for a more nuanced examination of data ethics, available tools, challenges, and opportunities at each phase of the solutions pathway

Forces a critical examination of the dichotomy between short-term, reactive humanitarian aid and longterm development programs We hope this framework will help actors in both spheres, alongside prevention and government stakeholders, to better collaborate and synthesize their efforts

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

This section considers sources of data collection for early warning and durable solutions, provides an ethical framework for data collection and analysis, and addresses challenges to data collection and analysis that have been identified in the field. The core contribution of this section is the ethical framework, providing an outline of five key priorities for data collection, including safeguarding the agency of data, protecting privacy, keeping data secure, maintaining visibility, and ensuring accountable partnerships, alongside a comprehensive ethical framework for qualitative data collection specifically.

INTERNALLY DISPLACED PERSONS STATISTICS

The International Recommendations on Internally Displaced Persons Statistics (‘International Recommendations’) includes an internal displacement statistical framework, guidelines on coordination of statistics, data sources for collecting and selecting statistics, guidelines on data integration, and criteria for measuring durable solutions ²² It is inclusive of the three classifications or subgroups of IDPs: those in areas of displacement, or local integration; those in areas of return, or reintegration; and those settled elsewhere, or integration in settlement locations

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY DATA COLLECTION

Primary and secondary data collection play critical roles in informing early warning and durable solutions

Primary sources are those that provide direct access to a given subject of research, including individuals and communities that are or may become internally displaced, while secondary sources are those that provide secondhand access to or independently assessed analysis

The advantages of primary data collection include learning community-level information, including social, cultural, and political dynamics; independently confirming or rebutting secondary data sources; and promoting individual- and community-level involvement in data on internally displaced persons, which is an essential component of addressing and resolving their displacement ²³

Primary data collection may be infeasible due to logistical, resource, safety, or time constraints Interviews revealed that the following sources of primary data are seen as providing some of the most actionable insight for early warning and durable solutions:

Individual- and household-level interviews or surveys

Key informant interviews

Focus group discussions

Risk assessments and mapping

Multi-sectoral needs assessments

Intentions surveys

Biometric registration

Telephone polls

Interviews, focus group discussions, and additional forms of community engagement are important to obtain a clear understanding of individual- and community-level needs and vulnerabilities preceding, during, and after a displacement event occurs Interviews and surveys on the individual level, rather than the household level, can provide critical insight into differential experiences based on personal characteristics Risk assessments and mapping can identify potential hazards, risks, vulnerabilities, and resiliencies within a community to inform programming and response Where in-person data collection is not feasible, telephone and cell phone polls can be implemented This approach may be limited in areas without connectivity or in circumstances where funding is not available to provide phones to people who do not own them.

Multi-sectoral needs assessments aim to understand the multi-sectoral priority needs of populations, including of displacement-affected populations, to inform humanitarian assistance and response and provide insight into progress towards durable solutions These assessments are based on household-level surveys and can complement other assessments, including those informed by key informant interviews Intentions surveys identify the intentions of a population to monitor population dynamics and migration patterns. These include intentions to return or relocate elsewhere, and the reasons for these intentions

These forms of data collection are not always objective. Key informant interviews with local community leaders, for example, may not be representative of the needs and perspectives of individuals and households. Similarly, a head of household may not hold the same priority needs as members of the household This requires caution in data analysis to ensure that a range of perspectives are represented, and so that the entirety of community dynamics can be understood. In cases where community leaders or outspoken individuals are present, the views of other respondents and their individual needs and priorities may be drowned out Additionally, individuals may not be comfortable sharing views that are unpopular or may expose informants as members of minority or marginalized groups. To address these challenges, these forms of data collection should be complemented by other data collection methods discussed herein and enumerators should endeavor to be inclusive in their collection approaches.

Biometric registration allows different agencies to accurately track who is receiving services, identify movement patterns, and distribute aid In particular, biometric data is deployed to ensure accountability and prevent unethical leadership from diverting humanitarian support away from those in highest need.²⁴ Although biometric data is increasingly widespread, it can also raise significant data privacy concerns and itself incite conflict Additionally, while some individuals may have conflicting personally identifiable information (PII) in different humanitarian registries, biometric data, such as fingerprints or photo documentation, cannot be as easily changed across organizations It may be difficult to establish biometric registration in some contexts, such as in Somalia, where three separate governments are present

Secondary sources should receive independent verification and comparison with primary data, when available This is particularly important if the source of information, such as a government or organization, has motivation to report inaccurate information. Interviews revealed that the following sources of secondary data are seen as providing some of the most actionable insight for early warning and durable solutions:

Geolocation and mobility analysis

Social media platform analysis

Reporting from alternate sources

Migrant stocks and flow monitoring

Remote sensing analysis

Artificial intelligence and big data

Social media organizations and third party data collectors, who do not have a direct relationship to the owner of the data or information, can be valuable sources of data These organizations play an increasing role in data collection through population location and movement monitoring, third party polling on behalf of private actors, and phone surveys For example, Data for Good at Meta includes datasets and tools with de-identified information ²⁵ Meta has also supported monitoring population movements in Ukraine in the wake of Russia’s invasion ²⁶

These organizations may also contribute to tracking and analyzing information provided on social media platforms, which can contribute to monitoring and analyzing community-level dynamics, including allegations of human rights violations or increasing propaganda. There are thus valuable near- and long-term opportunities for UN agencies to collaborate with these data collectors. As will be discussed, however, many of these data collectors may not have developed stringent approaches to data ethics. Agreements for data use with these organizations must be rigorous, as evidence shows that ambiguous language and exploitation of exceptions can be used by third parties to expand their access to and use of PII for other purposes.²⁷

Data collection and analysis should be inclusive of reporting from alternate sources, such as news outlets, social media platforms, and police reports. This reporting should be analyzed with caution as it may lack objectivity or be an intentional source of misinformation. In other circumstances, such as with police reporting, it is important to recognize the issue of under-reporting as well as the influence of bias on part of the person authoring the intake report.

Migrant stock and flow monitoring can also inform early warning and durable solutions. Note that this monitoring may be inclusive of primary and secondary sources, as national statistics offices may collect this information. Migrant stock references the total number of migrants in a given location at a specific point in time, while migrant flow references the number of migrants arriving in or departing from a location over a particular period in time.²⁸ Surveys, population registers, and other administrative sources may provide this data.²⁹

Remote sensing analysis is an additional source of information that has been employed, including as a source of early warning and understanding of informing early warning and understanding displaced populations. For example, local government officials in Nigeria stated that the use of satellite imagery to see when governments or local farmers have built over legally established cattle migration routes should be significantly expanded. This imagery could serve as an early warning tool to detect areas where conflict between herders and farmers is likely.³⁰ The Harvard Humanitarian Initiative Signal Program on Security and Technology has developed extensive practical guidance on remote sensing evidence and satellite imagery analysis, including for displaced populations and situations of conflict and crisis, both of which can be applied to early warning or durable solutions.³¹ The Satellite Imagery Interpretation Guide for Displaced Population Camps provides critical insight into deploying satellite imagery in these contexts and the relevant ethical, social, and cultural concerns.³² It addresses, for example, practical and operational considerations, limitations, and critical questions of analysis. Ethical concerns with remote sensing analysis, however, include the co-optation of this information by malign actors who can leverage mobility information to initiate, further, or target violence.

Artificial intelligence and big data are additional digital technologies that may contribute to data collection and analysis, including in place of enumerators However, implementation of artificial intelligence and big data faces operational barriers, including connectivity and technological capacity challenges, as well as significant protection concerns These technologies may contribute to anticipatory action by rapidly analyzing data, to response by mapping affected communities, and to recovery by facilitating data collection Yet these benefits have to be weighed against considerable protection concerns, including data quality, algorithmic bias, and data privacy ³³ Given the increasing use of artificial intelligence, it is critical that organizations develop standards on using and analyzing this data

ETHICAL FRAMEWORK FOR DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Despite the desire for clear, universally applicable answers, many answers to data ethics questions are context dependent and vary based on an in-depth understanding of the unique environment, challenges, opportunities, and limitations of a specific crisis in a particular location. We draw on a rich array of existing ethical frameworks and resources which highlight valuable ethical frameworks and detail diverse use cases and case studies. Several of these reports are highlighted below. Beyond this curated list, we underscore key priorities essential for data collection and analysis. See Appendix A for a full list of ethics frameworks and guidelines collated by the IOM Data Science and Ethics Groups.

We relied heavily on the following four reports to guide our understanding of the ethical issues associated with collecting and analyzing data on early warning and durable solutions. These reports focus on the humanitarian sector given the mandate of IOM, but insights from prevention and development actors have been incorporated into the final ethical framework.

The Framework for the Ethical Use of Advanced Data Science Methods in the Humanitarian Sector: Recently published by the IOM Data Science and Ethics Group, the framework serves as a guide for the ethical application of data science methods in humanitarian work. Developed by the Humanitarian Data Science and Ethics Group (DSEG), a multi-stakeholder group established in 2018, the framework emerged as the culmination of consultative processes and discussions. It offers a set of ethical and practical guidelines tailored for a diverse audience within the humanitarian sector, ranging from on-the-ground data collectors and enumerators to data scientists, project focal points, program managers, donors, and private and civil sector actors.³⁴

Handbook on Data Protection: The Handbook on Data Protection, a collaboration between the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) and the Brussels Privacy Hub, emphasizes the fundamental importance of personal data protection for humanitarian organizations. Recognizing that successfully safeguarding individuals' personal data is integral to preserving their life, integrity, and dignity, it provides practical insights on how data protection principles should be applied within the complex landscape of humanitarian action. It builds upon existing guidelines, working procedures, and practices established in challenging environments, with a focus on the most vulnerable victims of armed conflicts, violence, disasters caused by natural hazards or of human origin, pandemics, and other humanitarian emergencies. The handbook provides specific guidance on interpreting data protection principles in the context of humanitarian action, especially when utilizing new technologies, and underscores that data protection legislation enables the responsible collection and sharing of personal data within a framework that respects individuals' right to privacy.³⁵

Data Responsibility Guidelines: The United Nations Office of the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Centre for Humanitarian Data published the Data Responsibility Guidelines emphasizing the safe, ethical, and effective management of personal and non-personal data for operational response in humanitarian action These guidelines, designed for OCHA staff involved in data management across core functions such as coordination, advocacy, policy, humanitarian financing, and information management, comprise principles, processes, and tools to support responsible data practices within their work See Appendix B for a visualization of the entire data life cycle derived from this report, which is useful for organizing and implementing data projects

These guidelines are informed by the Centre’s extensive gap analysis studies, research, and field testing conducted by OCHA over several years, including the piloting of a working draft in ten different response contexts in 2019 and 2020 Finalized and endorsed in 2021, they reflect sound global guidance and policy instructions from within the UN Secretariat and across the broader humanitarian system ³⁶

Signal Code: Ethical Obligations for Humanitarian Information Activities: Published by the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative (HHI) as a pioneering effort to fill the existing gap in ethical guidance for humanitarian practitioners, Signal Code provides a robust ethical foundation to navigate the complexities of contemporary humanitarian work. The report translates and applies foundational ethical principles to the realm of humanitarian information activities, covering areas such as mobile devices, WiFi provision, data collection, storage and analysis, and biometric registration tools. The document integrates international humanitarian and human rights law and standards, ensuring that individuals affected by crises have fundamental rights regarding access, provision, and treatment of information.³⁷

Building Data Responsibility into Humanitarian Action: OCHA, alongside HHI, published this report regarding the responsible use of data in humanitarian response to protect vulnerable populations from harm. It identifies a four-step process to achieve data responsibility: evaluating the context and purpose within which data is being generated and shared, taking inventory of the data and how it is stored, preidentifying risks and harms associated with a proposed use of data before data is collected, and developing strategies to mitigate those risks. To implement this process, four minimum humanitarian standards are adopted, including identifying the need for data, assessing core competencies, managing risk to vulnerable populations, and adhering to legal and ethical standards. Lastly, it notes that a humanitarian organization who uses data responsibility will adhere to the following characteristics: incorporating responsibility as an iterative process, developing rules for the deployment and cessation of data collection, ensuring transparency, and implementing feedback loops with key stakeholders at all project stages.³⁸

KEY PRIORITIES FOR DATA COLLECTION

Five key priorities have been identified for the ethical pursuit of data collection

I Safeguard participant’s agency

Every person holds the right to control the collection, utilization, and disclosure of their PPI and aggregate data, encompassing personally identifiable details such as demographically identifiable information (DII) Furthermore, populations maintain the right to be adequately informed about information activities throughout all stages of information acquisition and use Access to information in times of crisis, along with the means to convey it, is a fundamental humanitarian necessity Every individual and community possesses an inherent right to generate, access, obtain, transmit, and derive benefit from information during crises This right to information endures through every phase of a crisis, unaffected by geographic location, political, cultural, or operational context, or severity Additionally, organizations should guarantee data subjects' rights to be informed about the use of their personal data and to access, correct, delete, or object to its processing ³⁹

II. Protect privacy.

Meticulous use of anonymization or aggregation methods is essential to minimize re-identification risks. Personal data retention should be limited to a defined period necessary for the original collection purposes. Subsequently, an evaluation should determine whether deletion or prolonged retention is warranted in order to maintain necessary quality and utility for credible results. Comprehensive coverage of potential data analysis operations must be outlined in the relevant retention policy or information notice. If data processing is planned during collection, this should be disclosed in the initial information and consent notice, with the retention period aligned with the time required for the analysis.⁴⁰

III Keep data secure

Humanitarian organizations are responsible for adhering to applicable national and regional data protection laws or to their own data protection policies When crafting data management systems, humanitarian organizations should, by default, explicitly align with the principles of privacy and data protection In developing open data frameworks, considerations for personal data protection must be integrated. Systems focused on data security should be implemented at every stage, including but not limited to encryption and deidentification of data.⁴¹

IV Maintain visibility and transparency

In humanitarian response, data management should prioritize transparency, particularly with affected populations This entails providing clear information about data management activities and their outcomes Additionally, sharing data should be approached in a manner that fosters genuine comprehension of the activity's purpose, intended use, sharing mechanisms, and associated limitations and risks ⁴²

V Ensure accountable partnerships

Effective coordination between humanitarian and development actors will require information-sharing agreements, which should be based on standardized legal arrangements for sensitive data sharing and include technical and ethical standards for data handling, management, and information systems No information should be shared without explicit agreement and the inclusion of accountability measures

Despite the need for collaboration, organizations must remain vigilant to potential risks, particularly in contexts of violence or conflict If involved parties gain access to sensitive data findings, the data could be exploited to locate and harm individuals, families, or groups This risk compromises the safety of people in need and the neutrality of the aid organizations ⁴³

IMPLEMENTING THE KEY PRIORITIES

Implementing these identified priorities requires an intentional, coordinated, and iterative process In academia, all processes for data collection on human subjects are guided by an external ethics review board While several interviewees indicated that a similar ethics review board would help in guiding accountability for ethical data collection and analysis, we believe instituting an external ethics review board in humanitarian agencies would not be a feasible organizational strategy given several constraints. This includes human and financial capital resource constraints, which may mean that individuals with other primary roles and responsibilities are tasked with ethics review This increases the likelihood of slow decision making and a façade of accountability without the requisite expertise to ensure responsible and ethical data collection and analysis

Instead, we argue that humanitarian organizations should consider a two-pronged approach that creates (1) an advisory role(s) at the organization’s headquarters or within the Global Data Institute and (2) a stakeholder working group at the local level The advisory role(s) should be staffed by those with expertise in ethical approaches to data collection and analysis who can review existing guidelines and approaches, provide relevant recommendations, and manage an ongoing assessment of data collection and analysis This would ensure that there is an appropriate mechanism in place to determine whether the organization is aligning with ethical priorities and obligations To assist with this advisory capacity and ensure that it can function effectively in local and country contexts, a stakeholder working group should be developed that includes the internally displaced population; personnel from the country team; and on-the-ground humanitarian, development, prevention, and government actors The working group should be representative of the diversity of the internally displaced population, and the resident or humanitarian coordinator in the country should be aware of the stakeholder working group to ensure accountability and encourage coordination, collaboration, and implementation The Global Data Institute should work alongside the ethics advisor(s) in coordination and advisory capacities

To implement the key priorities for the ethical pursuit of data collection and analysis, an organization thus needs to: identify its needs and priorities, assess existing competencies, align with legal and ethical standards, identify when data collection should be initiated and terminated, and implement feedback mechanisms ⁴⁴

Prior to data collection and analysis, it is critical to assess the existing competencies of an organization to uphold the priorities of safeguarding agency of data, protecting privacy, keeping data secure, maintaining visibility, and ensuring accountable partnerships. If an organization does not have the capacity to uphold these priorities, then it should not begin data collection. This will require an assessment in the design phase and will need to be attuned to the local context to account for different government stakeholders and infrastructure.

Once competency has been established, an organization needs to clearly identify its needs and priorities in a given context. Only the minimum data necessary to accomplish intended organizational actions and goals should be gathered to limit the potential for collecting and subsequently analyzing data that could harm a given population. This may require a risk assessment or profile to understand the data risks associated with a given context and with the driver of displacement. Risk will differ based on whether the driver is a hazard or conflict, for example. Any identified risks should have a correlated risk mitigation plan.

Data collection and analysis will also need to align with existing legal and ethical standards. No global doctrine for data responsibility exists, so it is important for humanitarian actors to understand the local and national regulations that may constrain or support the data collection and analysis process

These delineated needs and priorities, identified competencies and risks, and guiding standards will structure the development of “bright line” rules and “red button” responses Bright line rules are those established in the design phase that will guide the data collection and analysis process Red button responses are those that clearly articulate when data collection must be terminated, and what steps should be taken once such a response is needed

Lastly, organizations should establish internal and external feedback loops to assess data collection and analysis approaches throughout the process These mechanisms should include coordination with the ethics advisors and stakeholder working group, recommended above

ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR QUALITATIVE DATA COLLECTION

Qualitative data collection can take several forms, including observation and monitoring, focus group discussions, key informant interviews, eyewitness accounts, participatory assessment workshops, profiling exercises, risk assessments or mapping, information ecosystem mapping, or community and incident reporting. Conducting qualitative data collection poses an array of potential risks: it may place the person disclosing information (‘informant’) at risk of harm, stigmatization, or violence for their participation; it may directly harm or traumatize the informant; it may reinforce existing stigmatizations; or it may place the enumerator at risk of harm, stigmatization, or violence

Because of these risks, qualitative data collection should only be pursued in ways that promote inclusivity and are based on trauma-informed, intersectional, age-appropriate, contextually relevant, culturally sensitive, and gender-sensitive approaches There must be an easily communicated plan that delineates when qualitative data collection is or is not appropriate and corresponding security protocols to ensure the safety and security of all involved

An ethical framework for qualitative data collection must incorporate the five following features:

I. Dynamic, continuous informed consent.

At a baseline, all data collection requires informed consent. Consent is a continual, dynamic process. At any time during data collection, the informant may revoke consent. When interviewing children and persons with intellectual disabilities, an enumerator must obtain informed consent from a parent or legal guardian, if they have one.

II. Trauma-informed approaches and active promotion of inclusivity.

Data collection can inadvertently result in traumatization or re-traumatization, especially for persons who have recently experienced violence Traumatization or re-traumatization in the process of data collection undermines the autonomy, agency, and dignity of the informant, and is more likely when enumerators conduct the discussion or interview in a way that is one-sided, extractive, or dismissive.

To mitigate these potential effects, all data collection must be guided by a trauma-informed approach, which requires all enumerators to be appropriately trained. A trauma-informed approach would require that:

Data collection occurs in a safe and secure location. This includes options for either complete privacy or having an additional support person present in the room, if desired. At the end of the discussion or interview, enumerators should again address any safety or protection concerns.

Lines of questioning are worded in a sensitive manner. Doing so supports autonomy and agency, avoids furthering blame or stigmatization, and recognizes the unique impacts, including psychological impacts, of experiencing trauma.

Lines of questioning about violence are carried out in a survivor-centered, gender-sensitive, child-sensitive, and child-competent manner. If an enumerator is not trained in these approaches, then they should not be addressing such content.

Enumerators are informed of local social and psychological support services available to assist informants. Contact information should be provided at the time of the discussion or interview If there are no support services available, then any line of questioning or discussion that may result in traumatization or retraumatization must be terminated ⁴⁵

A trauma-informed approach is relevant for focus group discussions, key informant interviews, participatory assessment workshops, risk assessments, surveys (in the phrasing and framing of questions as well as in interactions with informants, if applicable), and community and incident reporting In observation, monitoring, and eyewitness accounts, the enumerator must take care to use rights-based language that does not undermine the autonomy, agency, or dignity of the persons being described. IOM has provided guidance on implementing a rights-based approach to its programming, including across different forms of data collection.⁴⁶

III Recognition of the importance of an intersectional approach, including how certain identities can increase the harm, marginalization, and vulnerabilities that an internally displaced person may face

Qualitative data collection occurs in contexts rife with political, social, cultural, and other challenges

Enumerators must understand how to navigate these challenges prior to initiating data collection Without understanding the local context, it is possible for enumerators to perpetuate blame and stigmatization Understanding context can be done in collaboration with local nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) that have insight into on-the-ground realities This collaboration should, as much as possible, be grounded in an inclusive approach by engaging with local organizations that focus on marginalized identities, such as women’s organizations or organizations for persons with disabilities Other potential actors to consult include humanitarian, development, or government stakeholders, who may already have insight through existing risk assessments or local connections

An intersectional perspective recognizes the marginalizing impact of specific identities, as well as how the intersection of identities can compound marginalization and risk of harm All participation of these persons should be accessible, consultative, collaborative, and inclusive An intersectional approach will recognize the status and influence of power differentials between persons, which can arise from economic, social, and political hierarchies This approach also considers structural drivers of violence that can place certain people in situations of increased vulnerability Identities considered by an intersectional approach include, for example, age, gender identity, gender expression, sexual orientation, sex characteristics, race, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, religion, nationality, caste, indigenous status, legal or displacement status, disability status, and status as a linguistic minority ⁴⁷

IV Clear delineation of when data collection is not appropriate or should be terminated, including a set of easily understood safety and security protocols

Given the potential risks associated with both qualitative data collection and internal displacement, it is critical that there are protocols outlining when data collection is inappropriate or must be terminated. These protocols must be flexible to respond to changing risk scenarios and apply to different communities. Data collection must not be initiated or must be terminated when:

Data collection is not voluntary

Informants have not provided their free and informed consent

Qualified staff trained in trauma-informed, survivor-centered, child-sensitive, and child-competent approaches are not available

In addition, if an informant mentions violence but an enumerator is not trained in trauma-informed approaches, then data collection should be terminated

Qualified, trained staff who can overcome barriers to data collection are not available For example, male enumerators may not be able to safely speak one-on-one with females in particular contexts, so they should terminate data collection with those informants An organization should make every effort to identify an appropriate enumerator to resume data collection.

Risk assessments indicate that the risks of harm outweigh the potential benefits.

Local psychosocial support services have not been identified to support informants.

Enumerators or organizations cannot guarantee that the privacy, anonymity, and confidentiality of informants will be upheld.

Security protocols aligning with these principles should be included to ensure the security of all informants, enumerators, and monitors. If a monitor is conducting observation for data collection, for example, and becomes the target of violence, then there needs to be a protocol in place for them to reach safety. This will be based on the local context and potentially dependent on capacity constraints. If the safety and security of all involved cannot be ensured, then data collection must not be initiated or must be terminated. Risk assessments can aid in ensuring the application of these protocols is responsive to the environment.

Note that any security and safety protocol will also need to include how to safely store and secure any digitally held qualitative data, such as through anonymization or encryption. The previously discussed framework for data security for quantitative data also applies for qualitative data once it has been aggregated and/or encoded and stored.

V Dynamic and flexible feedback and complaint mechanisms for input from enumerators, informants, and monitors

Feedback and complaint mechanisms are invaluable in data collection processes They allow enumerators, informants, and monitors to express any concerns with the data collection process and provide information about unanticipated risks that may arise Similarly, this form of collaboration can allow communities to affirm data analysis and conclusions.⁴⁸

Such mechanisms can also help identify contextually relevant and culturally sensitive approaches to data collection, as well as different types of data to collect that may be more attuned to the given context. Feedback can then be incorporated to improve future rounds of data collection. Communities may also utilize feedback and complaint mechanisms to give their input on early warning system design and implementation and approaches to durable solutions. In this way, the mechanisms may alert organizations to arising problems, triggering further discussions that can help mitigate tensions within the internally displaced community or with host communities.

DATA DISAGGREGATION

Data disaggregation is central to a human-rights based approach as it facilitates inclusion and the identification of intersecting inequalities ⁴⁹ The Inclusive Data Charter supports inclusive and disaggregated data and operates with five core principles:

1

All populations must be included in the data

2 Data should be drawn from all available sources

All data should, wherever possible, be disaggregated to accurately describe all populations

3

4

5

Those responsible for the collection of data and production of statistics must be accountable

Human and technical capacity to collect, analyze, and use disaggregated data must be improved, including

including through adequate and sustainable financing.⁵⁰

The International Recommendations suggest internal displacement data be disaggregated ⁵¹ Dimensions of disaggregation that may be relevant to internal displacement include sex, age, race, ethnicity, status as a national or ethnic minority, religion, indigenous status, disability status, sexual orientation, gender identity, civil status, education level, income, employment status, caste affiliation, geographical region, type of area (urban, rural, remote), type of habitation, type of ecosystem, cause of displacement, length of displacement, and internal displacement classification

There are considerable challenges to data disaggregation If information is not recorded consistently, then entire data sets cannot be disaggregated, which may bias the data Collection of data needs to be attuned to the systematic exclusion of some populations in certain data sources, including some administrative records, meaning that reliance on certain data sets can inhibit disaggregation ⁵² Data may not be readily available in fragile contexts, and where data is present, accessibility and integration may be limited ⁵³ There are alternate sampling and data collection methodologies that can address certain barriers, such as individual questionnaire modules, or respondent-driven sampling ⁵⁴

Certain identities, too, can lead to extreme stigmatization, marginalization, and even violence These barriers may prevent members of these groups from wanting to self-identify their group membership To mitigate these concerns, data collectors must:

Ensure strong data privacy and protection infrastructure to maintain confidentiality

Rely on the principle of self-identification, allowing individuals to determine when to disclose or withhold information, and provide a non-response option

Include disaggregation dimensions only when appropriate and necessary

Be trained in cultural awareness to understand the potential for harm in each context

Ensure that identity categories are defined through a participatory approach

Include options for free response and the selection of multiple identities

Do not use imputation or proxy to assign identities ⁵⁵

Additionally, data collectors can employ a variety of best-practice data collection techniques for sensitive questions. These include using indirect techniques such as list randomization or random response methods, allowing for a “polling booth” method of filling out information away from the collector if desired, or using “deliberate loading,” which explicitly frames questions about identities, experiences, or behaviors in a positive or acceptable light, minimizing any fear of judgment from data collectors.⁵⁶

An additional question is whether to collect and use data disaggregated by sex or by gender, with the former being prioritized within the international community ⁵⁷ However, when categorized as the binary of male and female, both sex- and gender-disaggregated data do not capture the nuance and associated vulnerability of gender identity The 2021 Global Roundtable on Protection and Solutions for LGBTIQ+ People in Forced Displacement recommended ensuring the inclusion of lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, and intersex persons (LGBTQI+) in data disaggregation through consultation with civil society organizations to create safe, secure, and respectful spaces for data collection and training on a human-rights based approach that addresses their vulnerabilities in displacement ⁵⁸ These recommendations highlight that there is not one solution for data disaggregation, but that the disaggregation dimensions and their associated categories must be developed with respect to the local context in a way that minimizes harm.

Importantly, these challenges must not be deterrents. Data collectors should aim to disaggregate data as thoroughly as possible, and they should work in close coordination with local organizations that are familiar with community dynamics and inequalities and can provide the appropriate guidance. Regardless of the approach, the principle of self-identification should guide data collection on personal characteristics.

FROM THE FIELD: CHALLENGES TO DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Valuable insight from field experiences of the authors has been supplemented here by desk research and interviews to present some challenges to data collection and analysis. This is not a comprehensive list, but rather provides critical starting points for understanding how data collection and analysis can be designed from the start with these challenges in mind.

Biases. In addition to the dynamics discussed above that can limit the objectivity of data, other general forms of measurement error can bias results of data collection.⁵⁹ Three forms of measurement error can potentially sway answers: question issues, resulting from badly constructed questions, including those that are vague, presumptuous, or poorly framed; response-related issues, predominately in quantitative collection, where the potential answer choices have some form of poor construction; and respondent issues, which occur when participants have their own internal biases when they respond to questions, including social desirability bias or reporting bias, including when respondents’ answers are influenced by what answer will enable access to a program.⁶⁰ Small-scale piloting before expansion of surveys can help detect when bias has crept in. Building consistency checks into data collection tools can quickly alert enumerators of potential errors, allowing them to immediately fix or double check answers with respondents.⁶¹

Enumerators and interviewers may also be influenced by unconscious bias, defined as “any personal preference, attitude, or expectation that unconsciously affects a person's outlook or behavior.”⁶² Increasingly, the term has been associated with holding prejudice against people of a specific race, gender, or other identity group that influences one’s thoughts or actions despite not being explicitly intended. Research is consistently growing on how these negative biases can lead to discrimination in employment, legal access and rights, healthcare, and schools.⁶³ Unconscious bias can be deeply ingrained, and evidence is limited and mixed on whether these biases can be successfully combated.⁶⁴ We recommend thorough interviewer training on implicit bias, supervision of data collection, back-checking of conducted surveys and interviews, and pre-testing of questions to help mitigate the influence of individual and institutional

unconscious bias We further recommend deploying interviewers with a diverse array of identities, which can mitigate implicit bias and encourage information sharing

Response that is dependent on digital data is also subject to bias as not all persons can access digital technologies, which can lead to a misrepresentation of community needs, priorities, and risks Provision of digital data tools directly to communities, such as providing cell phones, can help mitigate these issues, but this provision has to be inclusive and representative of the diversity of the internally displaced population or else only certain dominant perspectives will be captured All such steps to counter bias in data collection are critical to ensure that data analysis is itself representative and accurate

Outdated information. Particularly in the context of migration and displacement, data that is used to inform assistance and response may be reliant upon outdated information that does not accurately reflect present community dynamics or mobility trends This can be detrimental in situations where actors need to respond to immediate, short-term risks or rapidly measure changing trends in the drivers of displacement When resources and funding are available, it can be beneficial to ensure that data collection occurs regularly These forms of data collection can include those that do not induce interview fatigue, such as social media analysis and direct observation and monitoring

Interview fatigue by respondents. Frequent data collection, however, runs the risk of interview fatigue by respondents Respondents may be less interested in repeat interviews, particularly if they have been asked the same questions by multiple entities or have not seen any benefits from contributing their experiences and knowledge to data collection Interview fatigue can further compromise data quality Thus, the frequency of data collection should be monitored and multiple entities operating within a single context should collaborate with one another to ensure that data collection is not burdening participants

Security issues due to political sensitivities. In-person data collection may be infeasible due to political sensitivities Telephone calls, when possible, can be implemented as a safer alternative for enumerators, informants, and respondents As indicated above, this may require the provision of phones, which should be distributed in a manner that is representative of the internally displaced population

Safety concerns due to biometric registration. Biometric data collection can ensure assistance provision is efficient, especially for identification and deduplication efforts, efforts to identify individuals who may be registered under multiple, different identities,⁶⁵ and guarantee that aid is being received by intended recipients and not diverted to governments or other non-government actors However, it can also place displaced persons at risk This is especially true if data is not secure or if authority figures, including government entities, ask for the data from the collecting parties In 2019, for example, the UN moved to institute biometric data registration requirements to access food aid in Yemen in response to concerns that the Houthi rebels were diverting food aid towards their cause However, the Houthi regime painted biometric data as intelligence overreach and demanded access to the acquired PII The disagreement suspended food aid to 850,000 people for two months before a biometric database agreement was reached ⁶⁶

Language barriers. Language barriers can also inhibit data collection and analysis, including in situations where a language is used that is based on the local context and is not understood by data collectors This may occur, for example, when analyzing social media reports where stigmatizing or inappropriate language is utilized but not recognized by an analyst

EARLY WARNING AND RESPONSE

Early warning is a process that “alerts decision makers to the potential outbreak, escalation and resurgence” of conflict and crisis, including disasters caused by natural hazards, and that can provide information regarding their causes and drivers ⁶⁷ An early warning system regularly collects and analyzes relevant quantitative and qualitative data to measure rising risks of conflict and crisis The data used varies between individual systems, including based on their geographic focus and what form of crisis they seek to analyze This can enable meaningful early response: action that aims to address, mitigate, or prevent the conflict or crisis and its impacts

However, early warning is not always effective in initiating early response ⁶⁸ Ideally, proposals for early action are quickly distributed to decision makers and key stakeholders once the early warning is communicated ⁶⁹ These proposals should provide a combination of potential measures to be implemented along the spectrum of prevention and response and should range from the short- to long-term ⁷⁰

Early warning systems often differ substantively from one another, particularly in terms of the outcome (e g , political violence or tsunamis), predictors, geographic scope (e g , community or regional), time horizon, and data collection strategies that are included Early warning systems do not always include correlative response mechanisms, but for early action to be effective, these mechanisms are critically necessary

A general framework for an early warning and response mechanism includes:⁷¹

TRIGGER

An action, circumstance, or event relevant to the outcome of the early warning system. For example, an election may trigger political violence, as happened in the Central African Republic in 2020.⁷²

INDICATOR

SENSORS

SIGNALS

Measures the risk factors of a particular outcome. Early warning indicators will need to be attuned to the context of the early warning system In the Nigerian Election Violence Reporting tool, an early warning indicator of electoral violence was the number of campaign communications utilizing or referencing misogynistic, homophobic, or sexist references or propaganda⁷³

Collect data and transmit it to a central information system. These are particularly common in early warning systems for disasters caused by natural hazards, including the use of water level sensors for predicting flash flooding⁷⁴

Issued by the early warning system to communicate heightened risk of the outcome being measured. Signals are a component of data analysis

EARLY ACTION

An established set of actions to be deployed in the event of increasing risk as part of the early warning and response mechanism. A set of potential actions should be provided alongside the warning, and it should be founded upon analysis of the changing dynamics that the system measures

ACTORS

FEEDBACK MECHANISM

Enable further decision making and action, inclusive of prevention, humanitarian, development, government, and nongovernmental organization stakeholders. These actors should receive information about the early warning and potential responses to initiate early action Coordination with and between actors is necessary to enact genuine early intervention

Monitors data collection and obtains input from the community and other actors. Feedback allows for continual analysis of the efficacy of the early warning system, including weather indicators, sensors, and data collection strategies are appropriate in the specific context It also allows the system to respond to changing dynamics for example, it may become dangerous for an enumerator to collect a certain type of information, at which point that form of data collection should be ceased

A graphic representation of the early warning and response mechanism

An early warning system specifically designed to forecast internal displacement is technically and logistically infeasible as it could not meaningfully account for the various drivers of internal displacement It may be that, in a single community, internal displacement is driven by conflict from non-state actors, pastoral conflict, development, and hazards An internal displacement early warning system would need to be designed to include all these drivers of internal displacement, requiring the design of correlative early warning indicators and extensive training of community members to monitor all such indicators This type of integrated early warning system, which would need to capture a wide range of structural and dynamic factors, would be rendered nonfunctional by the need to capture and analyze large quantities of data

Rather than creating an early warning system to identify the onset of internal displacement specifically, early warning systems for the drivers of internal displacement themselves should be deployed: conflict, developmentinduced displacement, situations of violence, violations of human rights, and disasters caused by natural hazards or of human origin ⁷⁵ These systems will necessarily be incapable of capturing all onsets of internal displacement but will guide decision makers when and where to focus early action to prevent internal displacement, prepare for its occurrence, and mitigate its harms, depending on the driver of displacement being measured To ensure that these early warning systems are leading to meaningful prevention and response of internal displacement, it is critical that internal displacement actors, whether in the humanitarian, development, or government sectors, are integrated into the early warning and response system They should be incorporated in the design and implementation phases

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE GLOBAL DATA INSTITUTE

Coordinating with existing early warning and response mechanisms to support implementation and operate as a response actor so that IOM is aware of early warning of the drivers of displacement, which signal an increasing risk of internal displacement, to ensure appropriate prevention and mitigation measures are implemented.

Coordinating with existing early warning and response mechanisms to improve or modify data collection and analysis strategies based on shared best practices.

Coordinating with existing early warning and response mechanisms, when appropriate, to share data and collaborate on data analysis. Such coordination should only occur when organizations adhere to the key principles of ethical data collection.

Assisting in the development of new early warning and response mechanisms, including by providing best practices on data collection and analysis.

Leveraging existing datasets that include humanitarian data to early warning and response mechanisms.

A non-exhaustive list of existing early warning systems, datasets, frameworks, and tools that can serve as resources for measuring the early warning of internal displacement are listed below. Note that some resources may additionally contribute to measuring durable solutions by leveraging humanitarian data, including through the Humanitarian Data Exchange

Conflict Data Resources and Early Warning Systems

Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism (CEWARN)

European Union Conflict Early Warning System (EUCEWS)

Genocide Watch

Global Conflict Risk Index (GCRI)

Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (ICEWS)

International Crisis Group (ICG) Crisis Watch

International Organization for Migration (IOM) Transhumance Tracking Tool (TTT)

Political Instability Task Force (PITF)

Political Terror Scale (PTS)

Polity Project Dataset

Prediction, Visualization, and Early Warning (PREVIEW)

The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies

The Sentinel Project Early Warning System

Socio-Political Instability Monitor

United Nations Situational Awareness

Geospatial Enterprise (SAGE) Database

United States Holocaust Memorial Museum (USHMM) Early Warning Project (EWP)

Uppsala Conflict Data Program

Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Dataset

Violence Early Warning System (ViEWS)

Early Warning Frameworks

United Nations Early-Warning Indicators of Conflict-Related Sexual Violence Matrix

United Nations Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes

United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Conflict Assessment Framework (CAF 2.0)

World Bank Conflict Analysis Framework (CAF)

Famine Early Warning Systems and Tools

Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET)

World Bank Famine Action Mechanism (FAM)

Forced Displacement Early Warning Systems

Danish Refugee Council Foresight Model

Hazard Data Resources and Early Warning Systems

European Drought Observatory (EDO)

European Flood Awareness System (EFAS)

European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS)

Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS)

Global Drought Information System (GDIS)

Global Drought Observatory (GDO)

Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS)

Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS)

Weathering Risk

World Food Program (WFP) Advanced Disaster Analysis and Mapping (ADAM)

World Food Programme (WFP) Platform for Real-time Impact and Situation Monitoring (PRISM)

Humanitarian Data Resources and Tools

ACAPS

African Union African Risk Capacity

Afrobarometer

Arabbarometer

Artificial Intelligence for Disaster Response (AIDR)

IMPACT Initiatives

INFORM Risk Index

INFORM Severity Index

INFORM Warning

Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC)

International Organization for Migration (IOM) Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM)

KoBoToolbox

United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Crisis Risk Dashboard

United Nations Office of the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) Center for Humanitarian Data Humanitarian Data Exchange (HDX)

United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Data Sources

Early warning systems need to be contextually relevant to be effective. It is not appropriate nor advisable to deploy an already existing early system in another context without adapting the data collection strategies, measurements, and other system components, including a review of the definitions used by the system. Community-based early warning systems are also a critical subgroup of systems, which can empower communities to track signals themselves and make their use more sustainable.⁷⁶ These systems can also ensure co-collaboration and the full and meaningful integration of communities into data collection and analysis, as illustrated in the section on intersectional considerations below. Several organizations have published relevant guidance for developing these systems, including the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC).⁷⁷

Some actors have proposed developing global early warning systems, but the effectiveness of these systems depends largely on the outcome they track and on data availability. Multi-hazard early warning systems, for example, can address “contexts where hazardous events may occur alone, simultaneously, cascading or cumulatively over time,” consider the interrelated effects of these hazards, and increase the “efficiency and consistency of warnings through coordinated and compatible mechanisms and capacities.”⁷⁸ Such a system, however, would not be feasible for conflict or violence given their context dependence and the lack of interoperability of relevant data. In these scenarios, early warning systems should be designed at community, national, and regional levels.

INSIGHTS FROM HUMANITARIAN ACTORS

In interviews, humanitarian actors identified the following recommended features of future tools:

Data systems that send signals when the data deviates past a given threshold from the baseline, and 1

2

Data sets inclusive of sectoral needs and planning

Data systems programmed to monitor baseline trends and provide a trigger to that system’s client when the data deviates a certain amount from the baseline are highly useful in early warning Systems with automatic trigger capabilities can automate data analysis, while preventing IOM analysts and customers from information overload that may dilute the significance of individual warnings Such signals are common in hazard early warning systems

Furthermore, data sets should be inclusive, focusing not only on household and community intentions but also on origin and host community conditions and capabilities For example, in the context of housing, data sets should be inclusive of information on current habitation needs as well as on existing capacities to provide housing While the humanitarian language is English, perceptions of the world often are not Communities housing

will not all have the same understanding of what constitutes housing, shelters, or habitations Language is important, and data collection needs to be attuned to the context to ensure that all data references the same terminology This is particularly critical when assessing needs

TRANSHUMANCE TRACKING TOOL (TTT) IN NIGERIA

Throughout Africa, tensions between farmers and nomadic pastoralists are a significant driver of conflict and displacement Pastoralists complete large-scale migrations with their herds between wet and dry seasons to access suitable grazing land Often, this means crossing regional and international borders ⁷⁹ These migrations place them in conflict with agricultural communities built along or within established routes, as animals stomp over young crops and eat mature ones Farmers protecting their fields and herders guarding their animals on the same land both use violence to protect their interests Although this battle over natural resources is not new, climate change, urbanization, a shift to year-round rather than seasonal farming, and the deterioration of soil fertility exacerbate existing fissures ⁸⁰

In 13 countries, IOM has implemented the Transhumance Tracking Tool (TTT) to provide early warning of potential farmer-herder conflicts.⁸¹ The TTT contains two major components: a flow registry and an early warning system. As part of the flow registry, IOM:

1.

2.

Maps movements along transhumance corridors, emphasizing key locations such as watering points and animal markets This information establishes an understanding of standard migration routes and supports infrastructure preparedness

Conducts a comprehensive registry to get accurate counts of herders and animals within pastoralist communities

Together, this information is vital to establishing a clear baseline understanding of conditions, and can be used to predict areas at high risk of collision and conflict.⁸²

The second major component of the TTT is its early warning system. IOM uses a network of key informants to alert officials when a conflict occurs (an “event” alert) or when herd movement comes much earlier or at a larger scale than expected (a “prevention” alert). Combining the vital learnings from key informants with baseline knowledge from the flow registry, the TTT issues alerts to relevant informants and local community leaders for use in preventing or minimizing tensions between groups via community-based and traditional conflict resolution mechanisms.⁸³

Although it has not brought an end to farmer-herder conflicts, the TTT is viewed as a successful early warning system. We identify three key features of the TTT that organizations should emulate when possible for their own early warning tools.

Community Buy-In: IOM partners closely with Reseau Billital Maroobe (RBM), a regional organization representing 750,000 herders throughout Central and West Africa, to ensure buy-in and trust from the pastoralist community This collaboration grants IOM access to conduct surveys, contact key informants, and send prompt early warning messages. Similarly, IOM builds connections with both traditional and formal government leaders in agricultural communities to share and receive solutions-oriented information ⁸⁴

Early Action: To be effective, early warning must be met with early response Otherwise, key informants may be putting themselves at risk to share information, only to be met with no help or support.⁸⁵ By sharing information quickly with leaders in both farming and herding communities and encouraging the use of community-based conflict resolution, the TTT embeds early response directly into its model

Collaboration with On-the-Ground NGOs: In Adamawa State, the TTT supports the work of the Conflict Assessment Report in Ten Communities in Adamawa State (COMITAS) consortium COMITAS is a collaboration between IOM, Mercy Corps, and the NGO Search for Common Ground, which facilitated the adoption of collaborative mechanisms for early warning and response and trained Community Response Network (CRN) teams to inform on early warning signals These CRN teams also received brief SMS messages with any transmitted information to share with their communities.⁸⁶ Multiple IOM staff members noted that the close collaboration with an NGO increased the effectiveness of the early warning system by ensuring that information transmitted by the TTT is received quickly by actors trained to mediate conflicts, and that the work between multiple organizations supports rather than competes with one another.⁸⁷

INTERSECTIONAL CONSIDERATIONS: DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS FOR EARLY WARNING

Intersectional approaches to data collection are a vital component of comprehensive, informed early warning systems and can contribute to their design and implementation by:

Encouraging the inclusion of diverse informants.

Identifying existing political, social, and cultural barriers to data collection.

Identifying what types of data should be collected, including determining which early warning indicators are most relevant in local contexts.

Contributing local knowledge to data collection, including risk assessments, multi-sectoral needs assessments, and mapping exercises.

Identifying community vulnerability, hazard risk, institutional capacity, and existing levels of resilience to hazards.

Providing direct inputs into data collection to monitor early warning indicators

Integrating community observations into early warning systems

Identifying what early action and response options are accessible and inclusive, including whether infrastructure exists to enable information delivery

Contributing to participatory feedback and complaint mechanisms

Determining whether existing early warning and response mechanisms are accessible

Promoting community buy-in and trust through participation and co-collaboration

All participation should be consultative, collaborative, and inclusive A non-exhaustive list of considerations for an intersectional approach are outlined below This list provides insight into the social and cultural challenges associated with collecting and analyzing information for early warning systems

An intersectional approach does not consider the following identities in isolation but considers how they may overlap to increase risk and marginalization These dynamics can influence an early warning system and its implementation

Legal or displacement status

In early warning systems generally, data should be disaggregated by legal or displacement status to appropriately document dynamics affecting displaced populations. This can contribute, for example, to risk assessments and multi-sectoral needs assessments. It can also help inform the development of future early warning systems by highlighting contextually and culturally relevant drivers of displacement and relevant indicators of rising risk.

Age

Participation of children and youth

Article 12 of the Convention on the Rights of the Child expressly states that children have “the right to express [their] views freely in all matters affecting” them, and that their views be “given due weight in accordance with [their] age and maturity.”⁸⁸ This recognizes children as rights-holding subjects.⁸⁹ General comment no. 12 of the Committee on the Rights of the Child explicitly notes that “the voices of children have increasingly become a powerful force in the prevention of child rights violations,” including in the drafting, development, and implementation of prevention strategies.⁹⁰

Within conflict-focused early warning systems, children are often excluded from existing early warning systems to the detriment of outcomes for children and the early warning systems’ own predictive power.⁹¹ This exclusion can contribute to limited early warning of the recruitment and use of children during conflict, which itself is an early warning of conflict escalation.⁹² Internal displacement is intertwined with recruitment into conflict: children may flee their home to escape recruitment, but being displaced also increases the risk of recruitment, particularly for children without documentation or who are unaccompanied, separated, or orphaned.⁹³

Child-responsive early warning would also encourage the inclusion of school-related indicators Terrorist and violent extremist groups have carried out numerous attacks on schools, one of the grave violations affecting children ⁹⁴ Al-Shabaab in Somalia has attacked schools, targeting children from schools for recruitment, rape, or forced marriage; controlling the curriculum; and abusing teachers This violence has caused some students and teachers to flee ⁹⁵

Hazard early warning systems can also benefit from the inclusion of children and youth As the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction indicates, “children and youth are agents of change and should be given the space and modalities to contribute to disaster risk reduction ”⁹⁶ Participatory hazard early warning systems provide a critical space for enhancing preparedness and building local resiliencies, in part by “informing at risk populations about potential changes in threats, promoting risk education, hazard detection and response plans, combining science and technology with local knowledge and experience of emergency situation and response ”⁹⁷ Children and youth can help identify potential risks and responses as well as socialize the importance of early warning within their families and communities ⁹⁸ They may be able to assist in mapping their movements, such as those to and from school, as this can influence their risk ⁹⁹ Children can even contribute to implementation: in the Philippines, students helped implement a flood early warning system in their school ¹⁰⁰

Participation of children and youth, however, may be impeded by traditional, religious, sociocultural, or other norms, including beliefs that children should not express their own views Enumerators and other actors, including partners, may additionally feel hesitant to engage in promoting childrens’ participation Steps to address these barriers include engaging with community leaders, religious elders, and parents and caregivers, and providing and mandating relevant training ¹⁰¹ Direct engagement with children and youth can ensure that data collected from other community members, including heads of households or community leaders, do not only reflect an adult perspective ¹⁰²

Additional ethical concerns may arise when engaging with children and youth Applying child-responsive and child-competent approaches, including through training, are important All enumerators and actors, including implementing partners, must also abide by the Do No Harm principle As noted in Article 3(1) of the Convention on the Rights of the Child, the best interests of the child must be a primary consideration General comment no 12 outlines requirements for implementing the right of the child to be heard, including the need for participation to be transparent, informative, voluntary, respectful, relevant, child-friendly, inclusive, supported by training, safe and sensitive to risk, and accountable ¹⁰³ Best practices for mitigating ethical concerns include working with local partners who are familiar with traditional, religious, sociocultural, or other norms and political challenges that may present barriers to participation; conducting risk assessments to ensure safety and security; providing and mandating relevant training; partnering with local child-led organizations; and applying existing standards ¹⁰⁴

Participation of older persons

Age-inclusive data collection must also consider the needs and participation of older persons While the inclusion of older persons in humanitarian action, disaster risk reduction, emergency preparedness, and development programming are addressed in the literature, their inclusion in early warning systems is not Older persons, however, have a wealth of information to contribute to early warning systems, including historical community information that can be invaluable in identifying existing barriers to data collection or implementation.

implementation ¹⁰⁵ Indigenous elders in Peru, for example, contribute traditional weather forecasting information to early warning, while also using scientific information to adjust these observations to the effects of climate change ¹⁰⁶

Facilitating the participation of older persons may be achieved through partnering with organizations or associations for older persons In Pakistan, associations for older persons were trained on early warning systems They were then able to identify early warning signs of an impending flood, and they successfully mobilized the community to implement existing disaster risk reduction protocols to reduce flood damage ¹⁰⁷

This illustrates the role that older persons can also play in early action It is also important to directly integrate age-appropriate considerations into response mechanisms Human rights documentation shows that older persons have not been informed of early warning signals in the past, significantly inhibiting their ability to prepare for and respond to hazards and emergencies ¹⁰⁸ Without the appropriate capacity for all the community to carry out early action unassisted, early warning can be ineffective

Gender identity, gender expression, sexual orientation, and sex characteristics

Gender is a dynamic organizing principle in society that includes socially constructed norms, behaviors, and roles.¹⁰⁹ Gender identity refers to an individual’s own experience, perception, and understanding of their gender. Gender identity goes beyond the male and female gender binary, and it may not align with biological sex at birth. An individual may signal their gender identity through their gender expression, including external characteristics that are typically understood as aligning with the binary of masculinity or femininity.¹¹⁰ Different cultures use different terminology to reference persons with non-binary gender identities, including hijra, meti, fa’afafine, fakaleitī, and two-spirit.¹¹¹

Sex, by contrast, refers to the biological characteristics of males and females, including physiological and reproductive characteristics.¹¹² Intersex persons are born with sex characteristics that do not fit this binary, and they may have any gender identity or sexual orientation.¹¹³ Sexual orientation is not related to gender identity or sex characteristics, and it refers to an individual’s physical, romantic, or emotional attraction towards others.¹¹⁴

Persons may be marginalized or targeted for violence due to their real or perceived sexual orientation, gender identity, gender expression, or sex characteristics. Severe persecution on these characteristics is a driver of forced displacement. These individuals may be displaced within countries that criminalize consensual same-sex relations or diverse gender identities, providing limited or absent institutional recognition.¹¹⁵ Addressing the root causes of displacement is a key mechanism to mitigating these forms of violence, and persons of diverse sexual orientation, gender identity, gender expression, and sex characteristics should be included in prevention and early warning.¹¹⁶

Gender identity and gender expression

Women are disproportionately impacted by the devastating impacts of conflict and hazards.¹¹⁷ As such, they play an important role in both prevention and response, as has been recognized for both conflict and disaster risk reduction by the Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination Against Women.¹¹⁸

Early warning is a critical component of these preventive efforts Gender-responsive early warning is “premised on the realization that by overlooking female stakeholders, early warning systems were missing women’s potential contribution to more comprehensive information ”¹¹⁹ Women can provide valuable insight into community risks, identify potential data sources, operate as monitors, and leverage their differential access to information that can directly inform an early warning system ¹²⁰

There are examples of women-led multi-hazard early warning systems that provide additional insight into gender-responsive early warning. Women’s Weather Watch in Fiji is an interoperable communication platform of women who monitor climate-related emergencies in their communities, including through technical information and traditional and local knowledge. Women translate identified early warnings into messages in local languages that are approved by the authorities, and these updates often reach rural populations prior to those from authorities and other actors. Women’s Weather Watch was created in response to the exclusion of women from disaster relief programming. This model was adapted as Women Wetem Weta in Vanuatu, similarly including a core group of trained women who can leverage technical and traditional and local knowledge Women Wetem Weta reaches approximately 80 percent of the Vanuatu population ¹²¹

In part from these case studies, the United Nations Office of Disaster Risk Reduction developed a set of recommendations for gender-responsive hazard early warning systems ¹²² These recommendations include:

Engaging with existing networks rather than developing new platforms for engagement Using women’s existing social and political networks can contribute to community participation, facilitate traditional and local knowledge, and save resources

Allowing women to have leading roles in decision-making processes. To overcome social or cultural norms that limit women’s participation, consider creating women-led platforms with women representatives

Creating safe spaces for inclusive and accessible consultations. This includes considerations from the physical location of meetings to the composition of people in the room

Supporting technical knowledge and skills that enable women to participate fully in early warning. This should be done through continuous training, including on communication technology.

Applying traditional and local knowledge, including existing disaster risk information. Building on existing knowledge can enhance the effectiveness of early warning systems.

Supporting community data collection. This can be captured regularly across time periods and contribute to early warning systems.

Developing reporting mechanisms for community members to communicate hazard and risk information.

Ensuring that early warning messages can be delivered to communities. Women should help develop messages and can contribute to message banks created in cionsultation with women and approved by authorities. Women may also have access to different communication channels than men and can ensure that as many community members as possible are reached by messaging

Recognizing that women have valuable knowledge, skills, capacities, resources, and networks. These contributions can enhance the functioning of early warning systems

Early warning systems for conflict and violence must be sensitive to gender dynamics that may indicate heightened risk, including gender-specific human rights violations As indicated above, women and local women’s organizations have a vital role to play in data collection and analysis Women may apply a gender analysis to their work, which “invites a different set of views when deciding upon what response options might be more suitable,” or have valuable access to the local population ¹²³ For example, barriers to early warning response already faced by women are exacerbated when male family members migrate for work, especially when women are not trained to enact response protocols ¹²⁴ Early warning systems must consider these different experiences analysis

Peace Hut is a women- and community-led conflict prevention and resolution initiative in Liberia ¹²⁵ In 2018, Peace Hut conducted a mapping exercise to respond to the lack of gender responsiveness in existing early warning systems They found that Peace Huts could operate as critical mechanisms of early warning and response, but that they were hindered by limited infrastructure, including low capacity for formal reporting; limited knowledge of early warning among women; cultural barriers that restricted conversations on violence against women and sources of resiliency; and barriers to discussing concerns around local leaders or security personnel ¹²⁶ These findings emphasize the need to actively facilitate women’s participation within existing early warning systems, including by adjusting to the local context

Barriers to women’s participation in data collection will be specific to the local context, but examples include limited or lack of autonomy; limited mobility; experiences of isolation, marginalization, violence, or persecution; patriarchal norms, which can limit women’s participation in the public sphere; the burden of domestic responsibilities, which can inhibit availability for participation; low levels of education or literacy; limited access to resources, including economic dependency on male family members; and beliefs that their participation has no value or little impact on decision making ¹²⁷ Actors on the ground may exacerbate these barriers by only interacting with men as sources of knowledge or by not understanding how women’s participation should be a priority, which “reinforces existing power imbalances by diminishing the value of women’s knowledge and providing men with important access ”¹²⁸ These barriers cannot be addressed without understanding the social and cultural dynamics of the local context, which can be achieved through qualitative approaches such as consultations and focus group discussions

Gender is often falsely equated with women, which can further the systematic exclusion of gender-diverse persons from gender-responsive programming, including early warning There is limited literature on the inclusion of gender-diverse persons in early warning systems, but marginalized gender identities face additional barriers to effective and meaningful participation A study on early warning conducted in Nepal and Peru included transgender participants, who expressed how social and cultural stigmatization actively inhibits their participation:¹²⁹

“If you consider for a moment all the discrimination and name-calling [we] face the moment we step out our door, sharing out problems openly and suggesting solutions becomes next to impossible. How are any of us, especially those who are illiterate and with weaker social standing, going to find the right words and confidence to articulate it all, that too in front of hostile people” (Prerana Bista, transgender woman, western Nepal).

“I felt too shy and uncomfortable I know the rest of my community distrust and dislike people like me I would never willingly put myself in a position where I might be sneered at openly Unless I know a meeting is organized specifically for people like me, I would never go sit and put my views forward when surrounded by [cisgender] men and women ” (Champa, transgender woman, western Nepal)

Addressing barriers to participation for gender-diverse people should thus include creating open and safe consultation spaces where they can be heard without fear of stigmatization or violence Note that enumerators, actors, or implementing partners in these spaces may need to receive additional training to reduce their own biases and prejudices In some cases, it may be helpful to have a representative of the community present, which can be done in collaboration with relevant organizations

Gender-diverse and intersex persons who lack correct identity documentation may be exposed to additional harassment and violence or even the denial of humanitarian assistance services ¹³⁰ If data collection is contingent on registration or identity documentation, then these individuals face additional barriers to their participation

Sexual orientation and sex characteristics

While there have been calls to incorporate persons of diverse sexual orientations into early warning systems, the literature is sparse on the issue ¹³¹ Their inclusion is important to ensure that their diverse experiences and perspectives are heard and taken into consideration in early warning design and implementation This includes their experiences of marginalization and violence, which may be relevant to the early warning system outcome or to available response modalities

In Haiti, for example, LGBTQI+ persons are largely neglected by disaster relief, including because communities believe they “face no greater vulnerabilities than the general population, constitute a number insignificant to warrant attention, or are undeserving of the assistance due to other disaster victims and survivors ”¹³² Following an earthquake, all-male households were excluded from aid distribution that required female heads of household to present their ration cards ¹³³ This experience is illustrative as it indicates how including persons of diverse sexual orientation is necessary in data collection and analysis to ensure that such biases are not integrated into the foundation of the early warning and response mechanism

GENDER-SENSITIVE EARLY WARNING INDICATORS

Gender-sensitive early warning indicators are inconsistently integrated into early warning systems for conflict and violence, but their inclusion is imperative to enable earlier warnings of violence and help tailor meaningful assistance and response ¹³⁴ Early warning systems should include both structural and dynamic gender-sensitive indicators, which can measure medium- and longer-term trends as well as rapid changes that may be readily indicative of rising risks

Examples of gender-sensitive early warning indicators include the percentage of women among those present in designated common places, or the number of misogynistic, homophobic, or sexist references or propaganda in the media, social media, and at campaign rallies or public events ¹³⁵ These indicators should be integrated into early warning through a five-step process:

Conducting a gender analysis; 1

Identifying applicable gender-sensitive indicators and adapting them to local contexts; 2

Conducting a gender analysis;

1. Identifying applicable gender-sensitive indicators and adapting them to local contexts;

2. Developing safe and relevant gender-sensitive data collection strategies based on available methods;

3. Analyzing data in a gender-sensitive manner; and

5.

4. Ensuring gender-sensitive policy responses.¹³⁶

Gender-sensitive early warning indicators must be attuned to the local context. Not all indicators will be appropriate or relevant for all early warning systems. Definitions of indicators must also be contextualized, as cultural and linguistic differences can influence interpretation of indicators and, by extension, the associated data collection.¹³⁷ For example, what best qualifies as a “designated common place” is dependent on the local context.

Multiple gender-sensitive early warning indicators are needed to comprehensively assess community dynamics, as one indicator will not provide sufficient insight into changing dynamics. Gender-sensitive data collection methodology must be implemented to measure these indicators, including gathering information from local women’s organizations and, where and when possible, LGBTQI+ organizations. These organizations have unique insights into community dynamics and culture, and women and gender-diverse persons can often leverage their access to social and public spaces that are inaccessible to men. Establishing these relationships can develop networks for service providers to support monitors, informants, and others in the community. Gender-sensitive security protocols should be in place to ensure the safety and security of all involved in the data collection process

Disability status

Persons with disabilities are disproportionately impacted by internal displacement ¹³⁸ Per the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, persons with disabilities “include those who have long-term physical, mental, intellectual or sensory impairments which in interaction with various barriers may hinder their full and effective participation in society on an equal basis with others ”¹³⁹ Inclusion of persons with disabilities in early warning requires facilitating their meaningful inclusion in design, monitoring, and implementation; streamlining a disability-inclusive approach to anticipatory action; and ensuring their inclusion in data collection to identify their needs, the vulnerabilities they may face, and any existing gaps in programming

At a baseline, existing best practices on data collection and analysis for persons with disabilities should be applied. This includes resources such as the Guidelines on the Inclusion of Persons with Disabilities in Humanitarian Action, Washington Group Questions, Disability Data Advocacy Toolkit, and World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule.¹⁴⁰ The International Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) has further published a report on streamlining disability inclusion into action on internal displacement.¹⁴¹ These tools can help to identify persons with disabilities in a way that is not marginalizing and can contribute to data disaggregation, and also provide guidance for multi-sectoral needs assessments, site profiling, infrastructure functionality mapping, and other data gathering approaches. Colombia has implemented, for example, the Single Registry of Victims as a data source for persons affected by the armed conflict, and this tool disaggregates by displacement status as well as disability status.¹⁴²

Early warning systems need to be accessible, even in circumstances where data may be limited or unavailable. Persons with disabilities should be consulted in the design and implementation of such systems, including through

through collaboration with organizations for persons with disabilities To facilitate early action, mapping can be conducted within communities to understand existing needs and infrastructure It is critical that persons with disabilities are seen as rights-holding subjects and understood as having the capacity to engage in data collection themselves by measuring potential rising risks of early warning system outcomes ¹⁴³

All processes need to ensure accessibility and accommodations Not all persons with disabilities have the same abilities, so accommodations will need to be individualized This may require, for example, qualified interpreters Early warnings themselves must also be provided in formats that persons with disabilities can access For example, those with hearing-based disabilities may not be able to hear warning sirens indicating that a disaster is occuring ¹⁴⁴ The Bahamas National Commission of Persons with Disabilities assisted development of a disaster risk reduction application that was accessible and included the location of registered persons who could be reached and evacuated once a warning was initiated ¹⁴⁵ Similarly, the Fiji Disabled Peoples Federation established an Emergency Operations Centre to strengthen inclusive disaster response, including communication guidelines ¹⁴⁶

Note that existing data may not be adequately representative of the population of persons with disabilities In addition to disaggregating data by disability status, targeted data collection should be conducted This should be accompanied by awareness-raising and capacity-building programs ¹⁴⁷ These can address social, cultural, and institutional barriers to participation, including due to government wariness Governments may need to be reminded of their obligations under the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, if ratified Existing prejudices against persons with disabilities may also negatively influence the ability of an enumerator to engage appropriately and competently with or include persons with disabilities Training on inclusion is thus necessary to mitigate these impacts ¹⁴⁸

National or ethnic, religious, and linguistic minorities and indigenous persons

Data collection for early warning should extend to national or ethnic, religious, and linguistic minorities and indigenous persons.¹⁴⁹ Early warning systems should include indicators related to these identity-based drivers of conflict, which can often incite displacement. It is also inclusive of hazard early warning systems, which can be strengthened by different forms of traditional, local, and community knowledge and access. For all systems, appropriate response mechanisms cannot be developed without consulting minority populations to understand their inclusion.

National and ethnic minorities

Additional literature is needed on the inclusion of national and ethnic minorities in qualitative data collection. Their inclusion is relevant not only for conflict and violence early warning, as national and ethnic minorities may be targeted for violence, but also for hazard early warning, as underlying ethnic tensions may be exacerbated by hazards caused by natural disasters. In Cameroon, for example, national and ethnic identities directly increase the risk of internal displacement as “ethnic pastoralist communities such as the MbororoFulani move into lands occupied by cropper ethnic communities, leading to standoffs over scarce resources such as water and grazing lands ”¹⁵⁰ To capture these risks and dynamics, intentional collaboration with these communities is needed

Religious minorities

Religion can be both a protective and a risk factor for violence, and it can also pose certain barriers to qualitative data collection by delineating when and with whom data collection is appropriate ¹⁵¹ Engaging with the local community and religious leaders can help identify potential barriers and entry points Religious communities can also be a critical component of early warning systems, including in situations where violence is targeted against religious minorities In northern Nigeria, for example, the Interfaith Mediation Centre engaged community-based early warning and response mechanisms to mitigate religious extremism, which included local observers to monitor and collect information ¹⁵² Places of worship may also be able to contribute to response, including through material means such as mosque loudspeakers and church bells ¹⁵³

Linguistic minorities

Linguistic minorities, including indigenous communities, also experience barriers to inclusion in early warning systems, despite being disproportionately impacted by internal displacement IDPs may themselves be linguistic minorities, or they may temporarily or permanently settle in a host community that primarily speaks a minority language Reporting indicates that strategies to mitigate these language and communication barriers are frequently missing in processes to uphold the rights of internally displaced persons, despite the Guiding Principles explicitly stating that the principle of non-discrimination includes the right to communicate in a language that they understand ¹⁵⁴

Linguistic and communication barriers can inhibit participation in early warning data collection, especially if it is only carried out in an international lingua franca or predominant national official language This can limit the amount and type of data that is being measured as well as distort data by addressing concepts that are not understood the same way between linguistic groups It further inhibits response, as not all warnings are communicated in languages that can be understood, including by IDPs One study in northeast Nigeria found that most humanitarian organizations communicated with IDPs in Hausa, but a multi-sector needs assessment showed that many households could not communicate well in Hausa At several IDP camps, anonymous feedback mechanisms required written responses, but these were only accessible to people who could write It was also difficult for field workers to appropriately respond to these complaints given the lack of understanding of Hausa ¹⁵⁵ This illustrates the need for all components of an early warning and response mechanism to be inclusive of different language and communication capacities, which can be supported through an initial assessment of the community to identify what barriers may be present

Indigenous peoples

Indigenous peoples can contribute traditional wisdom and knowledge to early warning systems, and many indigenous early warning systems exist today In Budalang’I, Kenya, the Banyala community has a set of household and community response protocols for when crocodiles lay their eggs on higher ground, indicative of impending floods Indigenous methods of early warning for floods in Swaziland include the height of the nest of the emahlokohloko bird In India and Thailand, early warning systems relied on observations of animal behavior, including sounds and movement patterns Changes in these observations led to five indigenous tribes moving to higher grounds prior to a tsunami disaster ¹⁵⁶

These examples show the value of indigenous knowledge in hazard early warning systems, which has been instrumental in mitigating the effects of and responding to disasters Such knowledge, including on disaster risk reduction, “lies in the accumulated experience that comes with the close relationship of indigenous communities to their environment, formed through successive trials and errors over generations ”¹⁵⁷ Indigenous knowledge must be understood within its given social, political, cultural, and place-specific context and cannot be applied to all indigenous peoples Indigenous peoples may also have differential access to traditional knowledge based on their own identities Note that indigenous knowledge differs from local knowledge, which is specific to nonindigenous communities ¹⁵⁸

Indigenous knowledge can contribute to developing robust early systems, and it can co-exist with scientific knowledge ¹⁵⁹ This may be increasingly important due to the impact of climate change Indigenous communities frequently live in hazard-prone areas and thus experience increased risk of disasters, highlighting the importance of their inclusion in developing early warning and response ¹⁶⁰ As outlined below, this may require intersectional considerations to ensure response can be communicated to remote populations, which includes indigenous peoples The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction has developed guidance on incorporating traditional and indigenous knowledge ¹⁶¹

Indigenous peoples may be displaced due to “conflicts, development projects, urbanization, land rights violations, disasters and climate change,” so they must additionally be included in early warning systems for conflict and violence In Colombia, indigenous peoples were displaced by the armed conflict due to the production of illegal drugs and the presence of resources where they lived ¹⁶² The dispossession of indigenous land can lead to displacement, operating as a potential early warning sign of further displacement and future conflict ¹⁶³ Some indigenous and pastoralist communities in Kenya, including the Endorois, have been displaced after fleeing local violence Others, like the Samburu pastoralists, have been forcibly evicted after making ancestral land claims ¹⁶⁴ Early warning systems may also be developed specifically to monitor human rights violations of indigenous populations as well as violations occurring on their land ¹⁶⁵

Socioeconomic status or caste

Socioeconomic status and caste are particularly relevant in the case of development-induced forced evictions and displacement, which disproportionately impact socioeconomically vulnerable and marginalized persons Economic and social rights generally have been linked to early warning systems as discrimination and inequality can fuel conflict ¹⁶⁶ Caste-based violence in India has led to displacement from villages and may be exacerbated by underlying land dispute concerns ¹⁶⁷

Such inequality is also relevant in the context of hazard early warning systems, as socioeconomic inequality can constrain opportunities to manage disaster risk and establish community resiliency Persons experiencing poverty also tend to reside in hazard-exposed areas, and this associated risk-poverty nexus can induce displacement ¹⁶⁸ In Mozambique, the National Institute for Disaster Management implemented a multisectoral early warning system for drought, inclusive of anticipatory action Social protection actors collaborated in the design and implementation of the system so that it included shock-responsive social protection ¹⁶⁹

Remote populations

Remote populations are uniquely impacted due to their isolation, frequently increased risk of experiencing disasters caused by natural hazards, and dependency on infrastructure or others to receive necessities Remote populations may also not be equipped with the communication and technology systems necessary to receive early warnings or responses ¹⁷⁰ IDPs may even reside in remote locations during their displacement,¹⁷¹ potentially compounding these risks

Data may be limited and more expensive to collect in remote locations, but the increased vulnerability of remote populations to experiencing hazards illustrates the urgency of including them in data collection Technologies for early warning may rely on access to energy or mobile connections that are not feasible ¹⁷² While new technologies are emerging and existing technologies such as cellular service are becoming increasingly widespread, it is critical to be collaborative with remote populations to understand local knowledge and existing resiliencies ¹⁷³ They will also be able to identify their existing resources, communication capabilities, and needs

In the Himalayas, the program Disaster Management System (DMS) Himalaya takes a community-based approach to address existing data gaps in remote areas for hazard early warning It has a grassroots observational data collection that includes teams from local communities, as well as local youth These teams adhere to regular observation schedules, and they enter their findings into a standardized application focused on indicators for rapid-onset hazards, which were identified in a regional hazard profile that included meetings within villages and vulnerability mapping These grassroots inputs are then combined with automated weather monitoring stations and government data ¹⁷⁴

Data collection for early warning can also enable protective early response mechanisms that aim to prevent further harm and violence. Children are abducted from sites of internal displacement and in transit for trafficking, including for purposes of sexual violence and exploitation, child marriage, child labor, domestic servitude, and recruitment and use in armed conflict.¹⁷⁵ In South Sudan, women and children may be the targets of reprisals and revenge attacks after cattle-related intercommunal violence and land disputes.¹⁷⁶ Early warning signals of violence can encourage the implementation of protective mechanisms to reduce the likelihood of these attacks.

POLITICAL CHALLENGES FOR EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

Politics may govern whether an early warning system is effective Governments may be hesitant to respond to certain early warning signs, whether by a lack of political will or limited resources This can be a significant impediment to early response, which needs to function within existing political decision-making structures ¹⁷⁷ Politics may even influence the response options selected by a government or a government may be hindered by divided decision-making between agencies Longer-term early warning systems may also receive less resources and diminished prioritization than more immediate crisis situations ¹⁷⁸ monitoring:

For hazard early warning systems, political commitment is necessary to act on technical information and risk monitoring: “the most critical and immediate response to a disaster will depend on authorities and institutions at various levels ”¹⁷⁹ It is possible that governments or authorities will not know which early response actions are most appropriate for a situation ¹⁸⁰ The design of early warning systems should include actionable response options to assist these decisions

For conflict early warning systems, it is possible that governments are the cause of or party to a conflict that drives displacement within the country ¹⁸¹ For example, the Ethiopian government was a party to the conflict in the Tigray region, a “nightmare for the Ethiopian people'' which led to the internal displacement of 5 1 million Ethiopians in 2021 alone ¹⁸² At the time, this was the highest recorded number of people displaced within a country in a single year ¹⁸³ Such governmental involvement may limit recognition of early warning signs or block action to help the displaced in response to conflicts Intergovernmental agencies and organizations may be hesitant to contribute to early warning systems in other countries due to perceptions that they are interfering in another government’s affairs ¹⁸⁴

Potential approaches for mitigating these concerns include developing transparent early warning systems with accountability infrastructure to limit political interference; relying on ongoing monitoring rather than isolated analyses for sustainable response; and supporting social and political dialogue ¹⁸⁵

Certain countries may have an environment that is not conducive to data collection, such as in authoritarian regimes where it can be difficult to identify stakeholders Data collection itself may be influenced by political ideology, which can influence the objectivity of an early warning system ¹⁸⁶ Access constraints can limit analytic capacity, and it may be difficult to understand whether assessment teams are limited for security or political reasons, especially in conflict-induced food insecure areas For example, food insecurity analysis in Yemen was dependent on outdated information because data collectors did not receive permission to assess conditions ¹⁸⁷

Donors that fund early warning systems may be driven by their own geopolitical considerations, and the reputation of the donor can influence the legitimacy of an early warning system ¹⁸⁸ Political constraints on aid distribution may also be influential Donors considerably restricted aid to Somalia as part of their counterterrorism approaches to al-Shabaab, which likely limited capacity for early action ¹⁸⁹ Donors may also be more generally hesitant to invest in fragile contexts, despite these areas being in the most need of support ¹⁹⁰ Understanding constraints on access and funding is thus important to assess whether they will influence design and implementation, including response

SHORT-TERM ASSISTANCE

Addressing the needs of IDPs requires a nuanced understanding of both immediate humanitarian requirements and long-term developmental strategies Humanitarian assistance offers immediate relief and protection, while development projects can play a pivotal role in fostering sustainable solutions for IDPs and broader populations Despite this, internal displacement is not central to development and often does not go beyond the humanitarian sector in practice Even within the humanitarian sector, the type of crisis will entail different forms of response and programming, such as protection for conflict and recovery for disasters

Humanitarian assistance constitutes the initial response to internal displacement crises It focuses on providing essential aid such as shelter, food, healthcare, and protection to alleviate the immediate suffering of IDPs International organizations such as IOM, UNHCR, OCHA, and ICRC, alongside NGOs, national governments, and local authorities, play a fundamental role in delivering emergency aid, ensuring safety, and upholding human rights for displaced populations This phase is crucial as it directly addresses urgent needs stemming from the displacement, ensuring survival and basic dignity for affected individuals and communities

While humanitarian aid is indispensable, relying too long on temporary relief measures can create dependency and hinder the prospects of durable solutions At the same time, humanitarian assistance can run out if funding or aid is no longer available from donor countries or agencies, leaving IDPs in a vulnerable condition if they do not have other sources of support ¹⁹¹ Humanitarian assistance is thus a short- to medium-term response or solution in the context of the solutions pathway framework However, it is also a building block to more sustainable and independent solutions to ending displacement over the long term

Transitioning from immediate humanitarian aid to a sustainable resolution for internal displacement requires a shift towards long-term developmental interventions These initiatives encompass rebuilding infrastructure, restoring livelihoods, promoting education and healthcare, and fostering economic stability Engaging in projects that empower displaced communities by enhancing resilience, promoting self-reliance, and facilitating integration into host communities, return to places of origin, or settlement elsewhere is essential This transition requires a coordinated effort among governments, humanitarian and development agencies, and local communities to prioritize long-term investments By empowering displaced populations and enhancing their capacities, the move towards sustainable development projects can pave the way for durable solutions, including through voluntary return, local integration, or resettlement

Which sector has responsibility for internally displaced populations?

Although humanitarian assistance is often viewed as separate from development assistance, both forms of aid should be viewed in tandem. The actors of humanitarian and development response can both contribute to developing resilience of the vulnerable population through a “comprehensive effort from the onset, [in which they] learn from each other, and build synergies based on their respective comparative advantages.”¹⁹² Development actors can work on building resilience to prevent humanitarian crises from occurring through contributing towards strengthening governmental institutions, building resilience of the vulnerable population population through

through better economic opportunities, and supporting social cohesion ¹⁹³ This can encourage adopting a durable lens to humanitarian assistance

Humanitarian and development actors can also coordinate to understand community needs For example, after the onset of a conflict or crisis, it may be infeasible to conduct a risk or needs assessment to effectively distribute humanitarian aid in time If there are development or prevention or government actors already on the ground, then they can contribute their existing knowledge of community dynamics to help target humanitarian assistance Likewise, humanitarian actors can contribute their knowledge to development actors who are newly beginning investments in a community Coordination can also inform the development of interoperable data systems Many data systems are developed in the context of emergencies and need to be adjusted to suit longerterm needs Through coordination, humanitarian and development actors can mutually identify critical points of data collection

A mechanism to support coordination would be to establish internal displacement advisors or focal points within organizations, including prevention, humanitarian, and development organizations and across UN entities These advisors or focal points would focus on aligning and integrating internal displacement programming, including with regard to data collection and analysis This could be done in tandem with the UN Network on Migration, which aims to “ensure effective, timely and coordinated system-wide support to Member States,” further supporting the primary responsibility of the State in protecting internally displaced populations ¹⁹⁴ Establishing these positions would create an impetus to place internal displacement firmly on both humanitarian and development agendas and could mitigate tensions when there are conflicting mandates or resources at hand This could further incite host governments to focus on assistance to and programming for internally displaced populations, despite the associated political liabilities that may inhibit their involvement

Funding is also a critical concern for operating with the prevention, humanitarian, and development spaces Within the humanitarian sector, the donor community will often set the agenda and may not align with or represent government perspectives In many situations, donors will request data or additional information to justify the distribution of humanitarian assistance These funding streams will shift throughout each state of the solutions framework for example, financing is different for building temporary classrooms and for establishing new schools Crisis funding may also be dependent on whether the crisis continues to be life threatening, and the impetus for investment in reconstruction will diminish as risk lowers As this happens, equity may move to private entities, which will focus on maximizing profits Donors will also focus on their political priorities, such as geopolitical interests, which will influence programming and implementation With each organization, their financial requirements may also differ As such, resources and response will not always be correlated with the scale of the crisis, and limited funding for humanitarian and development purposes will shape the conversation of responses to internal displacement

DURABLE SOLUTIONS

Displacement is not simply a geographical shift but a disruption of lives, cultures, and livelihoods The conventional understanding of the end of displacement centers on the resolution of underlying issues that forced individuals to flee their homes This resolution might manifest via the restoration of peace in conflict zones, the mitigation of environmental hazards through adaptation measures, or other changes to conditions to make them conducive to safe return

The plight of displaced individuals and communities is a multifaceted issue that demands comprehensive, humane, and sustainable solutions Understanding the end of displacement and how to achieve durable solutions is critical in alleviating the suffering and fostering the recovery of affected populations According to the Framework for Durable Solutions, “creating and supporting the conditions to enable durable solutions is an essential element of national responsibility for addressing internal displacement ”¹⁹⁵ Durable solutions will themselves dictate the pathways of the future for IDPs

Because it is nearly impossible to establish a clear line between the end of displacement and the long-term establishment of durable solutions, IDPs can be seriously impacted If IDPs are considered to have found a durable solution before they have actually achieved it, then assistance may be terminated too soon and some of their risks and vulnerabilities may be neglected On the other hand, not recognizing that IDPs have attained a durable solution can prolong assistance, result in the provision of the wrong assistance that may be more needed by others, or damage their ability to integrate into society It is therefore necessary for all actors involved to understand the different variations that displacement may present when it comes to “an end ”

UNDERSTANDING THE END OF DISPLACEMENT

Determining when displacement ends is important for designing displacement-related programming, determining funding streams, guaranteeing that assistance and protection are not terminated prematurely, and ensuring that displacement-related needs remain a priority for programming and policy.¹⁹⁶ Determining when exactly displacement ends however, is often impracticable: some IDPs are unable to settle in their preferred location of residence, while others experience enduring displacement-related vulnerabilities. The fact that all displacement events do not follow a set timeline makes it difficult to define the end of displacement.

The difficulty in pinpointing the end of displacement goes beyond simple definitions. Whether a person is or is not classified as displaced determines when and which humanitarian, government, and development actors have ownership of service provision and programming. However, the perception of when displacement ends can vary depending on the stakeholders involved, including policymakers, humanitarian agencies, host communities, and the displaced populations themselves. There is not a special status for IDPs under international law, so there is no corresponding cessation clause. IDPs may have their own understanding of what it means to be an IDP or to be displaced, particularly in cases of protracted displacement when return or settlement elsewhere is infeasible. Governments may even impose a different measure of internal displacement for political reasons, such as to claim that conflicts have been resolved or that areas are safe to return to when they may not be. This ambiguity and the varying interests of actors contributes to the difficulties in defining when displacement ends.¹⁹⁷

The Guiding Principles aim to settle the legal uncertainties of internal displacement by applying the existing principles of international humanitarian and human rights law to internal displacement ¹⁹⁸ These principles structure the Framework for Durable Solutions, which delineates the following set of conditions indicating when durable solutions to displacement have been met for once formerly displaced persons:¹⁹⁹

Do not suffer attacks, harassment, intimidation, persecution or any other form of punitive action upon return to their home communities or settlement in other locations

Are not subject to discrimination for reasons related to their displacement

Have full and non-discriminatory access to national and sub-national protections, including police and courts

Have access to personal documentation, which typically is needed to access public services, to vote, and for administrative purposes

Have access to mechanisms for property restitution or compensation regardless of whether they return, settle in the area where they found refuge, or settle in a new location

Enjoy without discrimination an adequate standard of living, including shelter, health care, food, water and other means of survival Formerly displaced persons also have access without discrimination to employment opportunities, income generation, and basic public services

Have been able to reunite with family members if they choose to do so

Are able to exercise the right to participate fully and equally in public affairs

These conditions align with the World Bank’s definition of the end of displacement, which occurs when IDPs have met a “level playing field” with non-displaced persons, thus indicating that displacement-related vulnerabilities have been fully mitigated ²⁰⁰ This view, however, requires addressing systemic disparities and discrimination that might exist between the displaced and host populations and that can exacerbate displacement-related vulnerabilities These disparities and discrimination may be particularly acute when displaced persons or the host community have marginalized identities Importantly, ending these displacementrelated vulnerabilities is inclusive of efforts to strengthen community resilience by furthering the ability of an internally displaced population to adapt and respond to their surroundings

The World Bank definition is additionally limited in its focus, considering only the current situation faced by IDPs rather than whether the original driver of displacement has been addressed It is possible that IDPs are no longer experiencing displacement-related vulnerabilities within host communities, but that there are still ongoing effects of the driver of displacement, such as a party to a conflict continuing to inflict violence within a community of origin Under the WB definition, displacement would have ended in this situation, ignoring that the hardships which caused displacement prevent return and may further displacement in the future

Another potential complication with approaches that delineate a set of criteria for durable solutions or for mitigation of vulnerabilities is when they do not comprehensively identify vulnerabilities that persons of marginalized identities may experience These approaches may ignore the individual needs of IDPs in ways that exacerbate their vulnerability This issue will be further addressed, but it is a critical aspect of defining the end of displacement critical aspect of defining the end of displacement

Lastly, these approaches do not account for how individuals may define internal displacement and identify themselves as internally displaced Consider the above example, where an IDP may no longer face displacement-related vulnerabilities, but still identifies as displaced because they are incapable of returning home due to continuing conflict In scenarios where there are barriers to living in preferred locations, defining the end of displacement as the resolution of displacement-related vulnerabilities or the achievement of durable solutions may be arbitrary It is possible for the above conditions to be met while IDPs are settled in places that are not their preference These persons may, in turn, consider themselves internally displaced even if their displacement-related vulnerabilities have been mitigated In these circumstances, if assistance is terminated because the above set of conditions have been met, then it is likely that these persons will not be able to receive support in ending their continued physical displacement, defined as physically residing in a community that differs from the preferred location of residence The mitigation of displacement-related vulnerabilities thus cannot be the sole benchmark for the end of displacement However, it is possible for an internally displaced population to no longer be displaced but still experience vulnerabilities that are not related to their displacement

This does raise the question of whether persons who are displaced in perpetuity but prefer to return home or resettle elsewhere should be the recipients of displacement-related programming It may be difficult to sustain both targeted funding and programming for these persons In these situations, data should be collected on individual needs and preferences to identify whether a desired end to physical displacement exists within a community If so, then there is room for collaboration with government and response actors to facilitate return or relocation once conditions permit This ensures that resources are being fairly distributed while, most importantly, individual agency and decision-making are not being undermined

The end of displacement is best understood as a confluence of three factors: the mitigation of displacement-related vulnerability, the prioritization of individual needs, and the end of physical displacement, if desired.

This understanding responds to the challenges that arise in delineating a set of conditions or benchmarks for defining the end of displacement in a limited manner It is inclusive of the mitigation of displacement-related vulnerabilities, but it also upholds the autonomy and identity of IDPs in responding to their individual needs, vulnerabilities, and preferences We have also included the end of physical displacement if desired to recognize that not all IDPs desire return or resettlement

However, this understanding does not necessarily provide guidance for when displacement-related humanitarian assistance should end or when displacement-related development programming should begin In fact, the ending of displacement does not occur at one point in time but is a gradual process during which the need for specialized assistance and protection for IDPs begins to diminish ²⁰¹ Rather than being segmented, assistance should be coordinated to minimize gaps in assistance or service provision By acting in tandem, humanitarian and development sectors can also share information relating to local community needs to tailor assistance to unique contexts This is particularly important for persons who face enduring displacement-related vulnerabilities that impede their livelihoods and limit their integration

The inclusion of government actors along the spectrum of ending displacement is also critical Government actors can help facilitate the shift from humanitarian to development work, such as from building temporary shelters to more durable structures A coordinated approach between humanitarian, development, and government actors can encourage this understanding and facilitate meaningful durable solutions Importantly, understanding the end of displacement as a confluence of factors recognizes that displacement looks different for everyone involved including for those who may be permanently on the move

A coordinated approach enables a response to all facets of ending displacement Above is an illustrative indication of how such a coordinated approach may be implemented in a given community Note that we do not prescribe a single approach but encourage collaboration to ensure meaningful early warning and durable solutions to contribute to the resolution of internal displacement

THE PURSUIT OF DURABLE SOLUTIONS

Addressing displacement requires a holistic approach that goes beyond mere cessation of immediate crises It demands a concerted effort to tackle root causes, provide multifaceted support, and ensure the rights and dignity of displaced individuals Achieving durable solutions necessitates not only ending physical displacement but also empowering individuals to rebuild their lives, contribute to society, and secure a hopeful future for themselves and generations to come Within the Solutions Pathway Framework, durable solutions pivotal in ending displacement encompass various approaches that cater to the diverse needs and circumstances of displaced individuals This means that in order for IDPs to find a durable solution, they can reintegrate into their community of origin, integrate into the community of their displacement, or resettle elsewhere

For those wanting voluntary return, a fundamental principle in international law involves creating an environment in which individuals feel safe and secure to return to their homes The reconstruction of infrastructure, provision of essential services, and the establishment of mechanisms that safeguard returnees' rights and well-being are necessary However, not all displaced individuals can or wish to return home For them, local integration in the host communities or resettlement to a third location are the only options This, for example, could occur after a mudslide or erosion has permanently removed the land Local integration involves facilitating legal, economic, and social inclusion for displaced persons within their new surroundings This means access to education, healthcare, employment opportunities, and avenues for cultural integration, ensuring they rebuild their lives with dignity and rights Resettlement in a third location offers a chance for those unable to return or integrate locally to find safety and stability in a new environment Ensuring their integration into the new society and providing support for their long-term needs are paramount for successful resettlement

The pursuit of durable solutions has many challenges Whatever path these people take, it demands political will, resource mobilization, and collaboration among governments, humanitarian agencies, civil society, and affected communities Additionally, proactive measures to prevent future displacement, including peacebuilding initiatives, climate change adaptation, and mitigation efforts, are crucial for ensuring that solutions remain sustainable

Durable solutions build resiliency by enabling the development of sustainable mechanisms that empower individuals and communities affected by displacement. Sustainable livelihoods and development play a pivotal role in securing these durable solutions. Likewise, empowering displaced populations through education, vocational training, and opportunities for income generation fosters self-reliance and resilience. Moreover, legal protections, access to justice, and social support mechanisms are indispensable components for ensuring the rights and safety of displaced individuals, especially vulnerable groups like women, children, and minorities.

CHALLENGES TO DURABLE SOLUTIONS IN COLOMBIA

Colombia has faced five decades of acute internal displacement, due to the armed conflict, violence by non-state armed groups and criminal organizations, disasters caused by natural hazards, and land dispossession.²⁰² The government manages the Registro Único de Víctimas (RUV), or Single Registry of Victims, which is the most comprehensive and advanced internal displacement registry globally.²⁰³ It is a voluntary system that includes a vulnerability assessment with seven dimensions of displacement-related vulnerabilities: housing, family, reunification, identification, nutrition, health, education, and income.²⁰⁴

Under Colombian law, people can declare themselves as displaced for up to two years following their displacement. This, alongside administrative processing times, skews annual displacement data because of the time lag between displacement and registration. The IDMC uses this data for their displacement figures but excludes people who have made progress to durable solutions through local integration, resettlement, or return. However, these estimates may include people who have not provided sufficient information, have moved outside the country, or are reported missing.²⁰⁵

The registry also does not include a “systematic survey exercise that measures the situation of vulnerability” of IDPs,²⁰⁶ and the seven dimensions of vulnerability measured by the registry do not align with the IASC criteria. This is likely in part because the registry is an administrative database for legal assistance and reparations, rather than a targeted tool leveraging household surveys or other forms of data collection to understand the realities faced by the internally displaced. This raises concerns about the methodology of organizations who rely on data that may not adequately reflect ongoing displacement-related vulnerabilities. Importantly, the IDMC supplements registry data with other sources, including reports from disaster management agencies and humanitarian organizations.²⁰⁷ This is indicative of the need for organizations to design methodologies that rely on several data sets and tools to more accurately reflect ongoing displacement-related vulnerabilities.

Apart from data collection, data analysis may be influenced by host community perspectives. In Colombia, some host communities include people displaced before the 1997 establishment of the nation’s internal displacement legal framework and its associated protections.²⁰⁸ “Internally displaced persons” in Colombia are defined as those who have been recently displaced and can access specific state services not those displaced previously This can fuel hostilities, especially for host communities who feel they are disadvantaged and “resent the special treatment” received by recently displaced IDPs ²⁰⁹ These perspectives can influence whether IDPs still face displacement-related vulnerabilities, regardless of whether they receive targeted assistance

Data analysis may be impeded when it appears that durable solutions have been achieved, but the solutions are realistically not sustainable Analysis may also be impeded by a lack of sustainability of durable solutions IDPs who have completed land restitution and returned home, for example, may face hostility and violence ²¹⁰ In certain communities, such as informal settlements, both IDPs and non-displaced persons face similar, substantive barriers, raising the question of when vulnerabilities are related to displacement or to broader societal issues ²¹¹

Experiences in Colombia provide several potential insights for data collection and analysis of durable solutions:

Administrative data is an important tool but may be limited by government decisions and definitions. Household surveys and other forms of qualitative data collection can provide nuanced insight into vulnerabilities that would be missed by administrative data alone

Vulnerability assessments may not capture all dynamics of durable solutions

Data analysis should recognize the limitations to data collection For example, considerable time differences between displacement and registration or limited information on geographic specificity can make it difficult to understand specific timeframes of durable solutions

Solutions may not be sustainable after assistance is received Data collection and analysis should not stop once indicators are initially met, and monitoring should continue to ensure that solutions remain durable For example, community perceptions can influence whether assistance contributes to durable solutions As described in the case study above, assistance itself may exacerbate a lack of social cohesion or other displacement-related vulnerabilities

Data analysis needs to consider whether vulnerabilities are related to displacement or other situational factors

Interviews may help identify these specific factors

There are multiple existing datasets and tools that help measure durable solutions that displaced persons have attained. These tools often require socio-economic data, demographic information, legal frameworks, and collaboration with various stakeholders. Monitoring progress toward durable solutions involves tracking indicators related to livelihoods, community integration, legal status, and other factors discussed below.

Some datasets collect and provide information related to the movement and displacement of populations. The IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM) Return Index measures the “severity of conditions in locations of return” and includes sixteen indicators on livelihoods and basic services as well as safety perceptions and social cohesion, including data on the number of displaced persons and their locations ²¹² The DTM Solutions and Mobility Index includes data on demographic and mobility trends, safety and security, access to services and infrastructure, and social cohesion ²¹³

Other agencies also collect relevant information Some governments maintain databases and records on resettlement, repatriation, and integration programs International agencies track development indicators and statistics in both origin and destination countries, and humanitarian NGOs produce reports of their work with displaced populations that might contain qualitative and quantitative data on durable solutions and their effectiveness Measuring the factors related to durable solutions for displaced populations requires a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods

Conducting surveys among displaced populations, returnees, or integrated communities gathers data on various indicators such as access to basic services, livelihood opportunities, security perceptions, and satisfaction levels regarding their situation Using specific quantitative indicators such as employment rates, education levels, access to healthcare, housing conditions, legal documentation status, or income levels also helps measure the progress and effectiveness of durable solutions these indicators c

Some of these indicators can be found on tools such as the Interagency Durable Solutions Indicator Library²¹⁴ or the Self-Reliance Index (SRI),²¹⁵ and included within the IOM DSID framework

When durable solutions are measured as a “level playing field,” some actors recommend that statistics on national averages and along identified durable solutions criteria are analyzed for comparison between internally displaced populations and host communities Note that this approach has considerable limitations: comparison takes valuable resources and time, and the lack of regular data collection through mechanisms such as the census places the burden on humanitarian and development organizations

Analyzing administrative data from government agencies, humanitarian organizations, or international bodies that track information on IDPs can provide insights into their legal status, services accessed, and integration progress At the same time, employing methods like interviews, focus group discussions, case studies, and participatory assessments can help understand individual stories, challenges faced, community perceptions, and experiences of integration or return

These methods can lead to accurately measuring and assessing the effectiveness of durable solutions Our research finds, however, that there are comparably fewer datasets and tools formally established and available for durable solutions than for early warning systems Given this reduced availability of datasets, we recommend using the following criteria to analyze whether a durable solution has been achieved or whether a solution remains durable

CRITERIA TO MEASURE THE DURABILITY OF SOLUTIONS

Long-term safety and security. IDPs who have achieved a durable solution should enjoy physical safety and security to ensure their well-being, stability, and protection, allowing them to rebuild their lives without the fear of recurring displacement or threats to their safety.

Freedom of movement. Displaced individuals should be able to have autonomy, access opportunities, and rebuild their lives by allowing them to travel, settle, and integrate into new communities without restrictions or limitations.

Adequate standard of living IDPs must have access to basic necessities such as shelter, food, healthcare, water, sanitation, and education, fostering their ability to live with dignity and rebuild their lives in a sustainable manner

Freedom of movement. Displaced individuals should be able to have autonomy, access opportunities, and rebuild their lives by allowing them to travel, settle, and integrate into new communities without restrictions or limitations.

Sustainable livelihoods and economic stability Offering opportunities for sustainable livelihoods and economic stability is a cornerstone of durable solutions When displaced individuals can earn a living, access economic resources, and contribute to the local economy, it fosters stability both for the formerly displaced and for their host communities Economic stability reduces vulnerability to shocks, thereby enhancing resilience

Access to rights and services. Ensuring that displaced individuals have access to legal protections, basic services, and essential rights contributes significantly to their stability and resilience. Durable solutions aim to provide avenues for individuals to access healthcare, education, legal assistance, and documentation. When people have secure legal status and access to services, they feel more secure and are better equipped to face challenges.

Empowerment through self-sufficiency Durable solutions focus on empowering displaced populations by providing them with the means to become self-sufficient This empowerment comes through access to education, vocational training, and livelihood opportunities By acquiring skills and knowledge, individuals can secure employment or start businesses, reducing dependency on aid and enhancing their ability to support themselves and their families

Community integration and social cohesion. Durable solutions involve return, local integration, or resettlement, encouraging displaced individuals to become part of new communities or to successfully return to their place of origin, which may be populated by those who arrived from elsewhere or never left. Integration promotes social cohesion by fostering relationships, mutual understanding, and cooperation among different groups. As individuals integrate and contribute positively to their new environments, it strengthens the social fabric, promoting stability and resilience against potential conflicts or tensions.

Psychosocial support and mental well-being Durable solutions should include initiatives that address the psychosocial needs of displaced populations Providing mental health support, trauma counseling, and community-based initiatives to strengthen mental well-being can significantly enhance resilience When individuals have access to support systems that address their emotional and psychological needs, they are better equipped to cope with stressors and uncertainties

Participation in public affairs. IDPs should be able to exercise the right to participate in public affairs without discrimination, including the right to vote, to stand for election, to participate equally in community affairs, and to work in the public sector.

Ultimately, achieving durable solutions to displacement involves a combination of all these factors It often involves long-term planning and preparedness measures Building infrastructure, promoting disaster resilience, and implementing sustainable development projects contribute to a community's ability to withstand future challenges, whether they be environmental, economic, or social Durable solutions must also be implemented from individual households to structures of governance to create a system that can ensure stability This requires a consideration of what governance structures and ministries exist and which may need to be established

There are limitations to having several criteria for measuring durable solutions Each construct or criteria measured means that data will need to be collected and analyzed to measure it, and resource and capacity constraints can pose significant barriers to expanding such data collection Collaboration between humanitarian, development, and government actors, as well as with local NGOs, can facilitate ethical data collection and analysis by supporting efforts to measure progress along these indicators Each indicator used needs to be contextually appropriate, culturally relevant, and clearly measurable To gain a comprehensive understanding of whether a benchmark is being met, several indicators may be needed to indicate progress along each construct For example, both the right to vote and the right to work in the public sector can provide a measurement of participation in public affairs Datasets may already exist that aim to capture this information, including those for conflict early warning

MALKOHI DURABLE SOLUTIONS SITE IN NIGERIA

In northeast Nigeria, displacement is driven by three primary factors: natural disasters (primarily flooding), farmer/herder conflicts, and the Boko Haram insurgency ²¹⁶ The existence of multiple drivers of instability complicate potential solutions, particularly limiting the ability for return In particular, Borno state has been a hotbed of Boko Haram-led terrorist attacks, causing many people to flee to nearby Adamwawa state. Nearly ten years after original displacement, it remains unsafe for people to return to Borno and a more permanent solution for the displaced residing in Adamawa State is required, rather than tents or other forms of shelters. Near Yola, Adamawa, UNHCR, IOM, and the Nigerian Government worked together to build the Malkohi Permanent Solutions site as a durable solution for IDPs.

The issue of land tenure and ownership is one of the biggest obstacles globally to permanently housing IDPs, particularly in areas where livelihoods are dependent on agriculture and the government or a local community must allocate enough land for both housing and farming. Land access is a particularly significant issue for female-led households, who must go through a male in order to gain access to land. This leaves them vulnerable to exploitation and abuse. In order to mitigate these issues, government and local aid workers in Yola led a period of careful negotiations with the local community on land access. This led to an agreement that both the physical homes and the land that they were built on would be owned by displaced families in perpetuity, allowing future generations of families to remain in their new community. However, they are not able to sell the land or their homes.

Receiving buy-in from the host community for the Malkohi project was critical and supported by significant local government action. Even in cases where host communities are supportive overall, the prospect of IDPs receiving further humanitarian aid may be met with some resistance.

In some instances, local communities feared that IDPs themselves were Boko Haram fighters trying to infiltrate their localities. Others viewed IDPs as a burden on the limited existing resources and services available in a community ²¹⁷ In turn, many IDPs also struggled with the lack of social integration into the host communities

To mitigate these issues in Yola, IOM created a wide coalition of local traditional and religious leaders to build a social cohesion platform, which included hosting cultural events for both communities to share their traditions with one another Community sensitization, engagement, and conflict resolution were repeatedly highlighted as critical to the success of creating durable solutions more broadly and building the Malkohi community specifically

Through consultations with both host and IDP communities, the decision was made to allocate 70% of newly built housing to IDPs and 30% to existing local community members also in need of housing In addition to homes, the Malkohi durable solutions community included a marketplace, hospital and healthcare services, and a job training center All of these resources are available to both the formerly displaced and host communities, displaying that ensuring durable solutions for IDPs can also uplift and improve the quality of life of host communities The Malkohi community leader stated they were happy to share resources with the host community as a show of thanks

Despite a solution being provided by the government and aid agencies and decided by both IDP and host communities, there are still barriers to ensuring that a solution remains durable.

After consultation, shelters were built using mud bricks rather than concrete blocks Although there are benefits to mud brick construction, including cost, it does require upkeep to ensure that homes remain safe and stable Cultivating a sense of ownership and self-sufficiency and ensuring that the community is trained in best upkeep practices is key to keeping the solution durable Community buy-in must be recognized as a continuous process, not a one-off agreement Despite critical early support and gaining access to further resources, political differences between the host and IDP communities near the Malkohi site are a source of tension While the establishment of a durable solution creates less need for direct agency or government involvement, some form of monitoring should continue to keep an eye on newfound tensions and mediate if necessary

The willingness and ability of local government to promote durable solutions and ensure access to safety, sustainability, and health is paramount Even if obstacles exist at the national level, state/regional and local governments play a critical role for ensuring IDPs have support and access to services Maintaining a backdrop of peace and stability is a critical role for governments to play in ensuring durability, including preventing a second displacement If individuals do not feel safe in their communities, solutions will not be effective and durable As stated by Bittinger Mshelia, a Housing, Land and Property Officer at IOM Yola, “Where you feel safe, that’s where you call home ”²¹⁸

In summary, durable solutions not only address the immediate needs of displaced populations but also empower them to build their capacities, integrate into new environments or securely return to old ones, and create stable and resilient communities. By focusing on sustainable development, access to rights, social integration, and empowerment, durable solutions lay the foundation for long-term stability and resilience among displaced populations.

INTERSECTIONAL CONSIDERATIONS: DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS FOR DURABLE SOLUTIONS

Intersectional approaches to data collection are essential for ensuring that durable solutions are inclusive of all experiences of IDPs An intersectional approach can contribute to durable solutions by:

Ensuring that data collection and analysis does not arbitrarily “pre-determine” how durable solutions may look for different communities. Without thorough, intersectional data, organizations run the risk of designing durable solutions without considering the diversity of people in a community, region, and nation and the different needs and vulnerabilities they may have.

Identifying individual priorities. Through surveys, focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and more, enumerators can hear directly from communities about what durable solutions mean for them.

Identifying existing political, social, and cultural barriers to data collection This includes attitudinal and other challenges exhibited by the host community that may operate as barriers for durable solutions. Including local organizations and, where possible, local governments in the process of identifying and achieving durable solutions, which can help ensure they are accessible, inclusive, and sustainable.

As with early warning, all participation should be consultative, collaborative, and inclusive. It must consider the range of identities within a population, including how displaced persons may face new forms of marginalization when residing in different communities.

The Framework on Durable Solutions for Internally Displaced Persons explicitly states that all actors must respect the rights of IDPs to make the “informed and voluntary” decision about which durable solution they would like to pursue.²¹⁹ However, this framework does not clarify which level the decision should be made at: individual, family, household, or community-wide. The individual level, with its focus on primary action, may best reflect individual rights and preferences, but may not adequately reflect the reality of community and family connections that make decision making a collective effort. However, by only seeking the perspectives of community or household leaders, decisions about durable solutions could only reflect the interests of men and “high-status” community members, ignoring the critical input of women, youth, the disabled, and other marginalized groups.

The reality that internally displaced men and women may have different desired durable solutions was displayed on an inter-agency visit in Kandahar, Afghanistan, where UN teams conducted focus group discussions and interviews with IDPs to learn more about their preferred durable solutions. Although a few young men preferred to integrate into the city due to better economic opportunities, almost all men had a strong preference for returning to their original communities as their solution. Their responses focused on continuing their agricultural way of life an answer with both an economic and cultural component. However, none of the women interviewed desired to return. Instead, they preferred to remain in Kandahar, focusing on the improved access to education and healthcare for their children. If women were not individually interviewed, the understanding of communities’ overall preferred solutions would be incomplete and inaccurate.²²⁰

Age also is a source of dramatic differences in opinion for IDPs Despite listing them as a vulnerable group with “special needs,” the Guiding Principles do not expound or elaborate on what those needs are ²²¹ Due to decreased mobility and health concerns, elderly people are often the last to leave their communities and face increased struggles within IDP camps due to the lack of economic and social opportunities A study in Georgia reveals that elderly IDPs face both the highest unemployment rates and the highest health barriers and costs They also face increased social isolation and high rates of anxiety ²²² The continued Russian occupation makes these individuals’ preferred solution of return impossible However, careful, specialized consultation can help tailor what solutions are available towards the particular needs of the elderly ²²³

In order to accommodate these needs, we advise:

Always including analyses based on gender, age, and disability status when discussing recommendations and solutions;

Interviewing members from a wide range of identities and backgrounds within the previously established boundaries of ethics and safety to ensure comprehensive perspectives are gathered;

When possible, including interviewers with the same identity as informants (for example, having women interview female IDPs) This can both increase trust between enumerator and informant and increase safety for adhering to norms within a community

DATA COLLECTION ON DURABLE SOLUTIONS IN IRAQ

A novel resource on durable solutions is the joint IOM and Georgetown University longitudinal study “Access to Durable Solutions in Iraq,” which has operated since 2015 The study uses a mixed-methods approach, including surveys administered to nearly 4,000 displaced Iraqi families and interviews with host communities and IDPs, to understand durable solutions and resiliencies over time for households displaced by conflict with the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) ²²⁴ The randomly fielded quantitative survey and semi-structured qualitative interviews address the durable solutions criteria, and the sample frame was identified through DTM statistics ²²⁵

Combining methods is an important approach for understanding contextually relevant internal displacement and the factors that can impede durable solutions or even lead to a second displacement In Anbar, there are tensions between persons who were displaced during the initial advance of ISIL and those who were displaced later, leading some origin communities to perceive those who were displaced later as affiliated with or sympathizers of ISIL ²²⁶ Through interviews, the study team was able to identify factors of acceptance or rejection, community mechanisms to manage return, and obstacles to sustainable long-term return

The culturally sensitive and contextually relevant nature of the study design has led to important data collection and analysis recommendations. These recommendations include:

Not conflating stable circumstances with sustainable durable solutions ²²⁷

Understanding that the IASC Framework is limited in its understanding of the displacement-resolution nexus The framework proposes that “displacement begins with geography but ends with rights” and includes no geographical referent for durable solutions indicators. However, IDPs may align their view of durable solutions with geography, rights, or both.²²⁸

Conducting longitudinal studies to identify factors influencing movement decisions, supporting an analysis of patterns and trends, and addressing long-term effects of displacement.²²⁹

Leveraging qualitative approaches to understand perceptions of displacement, which may not align with objective indicators. This includes collecting data on the agency of IDPs to enable participatory programming, as well as on their existing inclusion in programs to identify and implement durable solutions.²³⁰

Collecting individual-level data. This longitudinal study uses household data, which limits an understanding of the different preferences and priorities of household members.²³¹ This limits intersectional approaches to data collection and analysis.

Collecting and analyzing data on the needs of additionally marginalized and vulnerable populations.²³² Engaging with local organizations, who are rarely consulted by international organizations.²³³

Including data on movers, who have neither returned nor been secondarily displaced (i.e., forced to move) but may reside near their pre-displacement homes.²³⁴

Establishing mechanisms to monitor conditions regarding secondary displacement, especially for families with a perceived affiliation.²³⁵

Assessing whether government services are genuinely accessible: Governments may not provide compensation, even after applications are submitted.²³⁶ IDPs may be unaware that compensation is available.²³⁷

There may be barriers to applying for compensation, such as illiteracy or cultural norms.²³⁸

Evaluating local return agreement models, including their efficacy and impact on IDPs and host communities. Incorporating an analysis of model characteristics in different contexts, such as within communities of varying levels of cohesion, ensures that models are working as designed.²³⁹

Picture from the field visit made to the Malkohi Durable Solutions Site for displaced persons in Yola, Nigeria.

C O N C L U S I O N S A N D

R E C O M M E N D A T I O N S

APPROACHES

TO DATA

COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

01

Data collection must safeguard the agency of data, protect privacy, keep data secure, maintain visibility, and ensure accountable partnerships.

02

Qualitative data collection must incorporate the following principles: dynamic, continuous informed consent; a foundation upon trauma-informed approaches and the active promotion of inclusivity; a recognition of the importance of an intersectional approach; a clear delineation of when data collection is not appropriate or should be terminated, including a set of easily understood safety and security protocols; and the inclusion of a dynamic and flexible feedback and complaint mechanism.

03

Data disaggregation is a critical component of data collection and analysis, and its associated challenges should not be deterrents Data collectors should aim to disaggregate data as thoroughly as possible, and they should work in close coordination with local organizations that are familiar with community dynamics and inequalities and can provide the appropriate guidance Regardless of the approach, the principle of self-identification should guide data collection on personal characteristics

04

Collaboration and coordination are critically necessary, both within the UN and across prevention, humanitarian, development, and government actors This can contribute to sharing data that can more rapidly inform data analysis, including in the design of humanitarian assistance provision Within IOM, it is important that work at headquarters and in the field is coordinated to mitigate operational gaps and recognize that the local context may dictate when certain data collection and analysis approaches are feasible This requires flexibility in the systematization of operational tools by intentionally building in space to adapt to and collaborate with the local context

C O N C L U S I O N S A N D

R E C O M M E N D A T I O N S

05

01

06

Leveraging existing community networks and expertise can mitigate resourcing issues as well, as developing larger infrastructure for data collection and analysis is considerably more expensive Organizations may consider funding existing local organizations to improve their capacities, rather than establishing new mechanisms

Data collection must safeguard the agency of data, protect privacy, keep data secure, maintain visibility, and ensure accountable partnerships

Time and expertise are necessary to ensure that appropriate ethical data collection and analysis methodologies are in place.

EARLY WARNING AND RESPONSE

01

Early warning for internal displacement should be informed by early warning systems designed for the drivers of displacement. A considerable number of systems exist for the drivers of displacement, and these can be leveraged through collaboration or can inform the design and implementation of new systems or the modification of existing systems.

02

Early warning and response requires collaboration with the local community, concerted efforts to include persons of different identities, and mechanisms for accessibility. It is not possible to develop meaningful early warning and response without a genuine, comprehensive understanding of individual needs, priorities, experiences, and perspectives, particularly in contexts where violence and discrimination against marginalized persons are indicative of future violence and conflict.

03

Early warning systems must be inclusive of a response mechanism in order to be effective Without early action, early warning is a misuse of resources and may violate the principle of do no harm by intentionally not acting upon the signs of impending violence or crisis that can cause irrevocable damage to communities.

C O N C L U S I O N S A N D

R E C O M M E N D A T I O N S

01

04

05

Data collection must safeguard the agency of data, protect privacy, keep data secure, maintain visibility, and ensure accountable partnerships

Actors will encounter different ethical, political, social, and cultural challenges in each context where they are operating There is no one general recommendation that can be implemented to comprehensively address these challenges in a manner that respects the local community Instead, actors must actively collaborate with the local community through the variety of data collection approaches available to identify these challenges and their possible solutions Guidelines to this inclusion and potential solutions to identified challenges have been discussed herein

The most valuable resource for ethically collecting and analyzing data about internal displacement is the local community Their inclusion can be arrived at through engagement with local leaders and organizations, and they will have invaluable guidance about navigating barriers to designing and implementing early warning systems and applying ethical methodological approaches.

DURABLE SOLUTIONS

01

Humanitarian and development assistance and programming should not be siloed, and they can be coordinated and implemented simultaneously to promote stability and resiliency within a community As indicated, coordination between these sectors can also encourage critical information sharing to more rapidly respond to the needs and priorities of a community, particularly in situations where there is neither time nor resources to conduct in-depth data collection on community dynamics.

02

The end of displacement must be understood as a confluence of factors: the mitigation of displacement-related vulnerabilities, the prioritization of individual needs, and the end of physical displacement

C O N C L U S I O N S A N D

R E C O M M E N D A T I O N S 03

Continuous monitoring of durable solutions is needed to ensure that they are truly sustainable, accessible, and intersectional in practice

04

Durable solutions must be considered for the whole of a population, taking into account the differential needs and priorities of individuals, particularly those of marginalized identities.

PERIODIC GLOBAL REPORT ON THE STATE OF SOLUTIONS TO INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT

01

In future iterations, adopt an intersectional lens that considers the needs and priorities of persons of marginalized identities For example, regarding children and youth, the analytical aperture should be extended beyond the sole reference to education

APPENDIX A

Full List of Ethics Frameworks Compiled by the IOM Data Science and Ethics Groups

From Dodgson et al., “A Framework For The Ethical Use Of Advanced Data Science Methods In The Humanitarian Sector.”

APPENDIX B

The Data Life Cycle

From “OCHA Data Responsibility Guidelines”

E N D N O T E S

¹”KeyMigrationTerms,”UNAgencyWebsite InternationalOrganizationforMigration(IOM) 2023 https://wwwiomint/key-migration-terms

²“KeyMigrationTerms”

³ElizabethFerris,“DurableSolutionsforIDPs, ResearchBriefingPaper,UNSecretary-GeneralsHigh-LevelPanelonInternalDisplacement (UnitedNations August2020)

⁴OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment,ed,PreventingViolence WarandStateCollapse:TheFutureofConflictEarly WarningandResponse(Paris:OECD,2009)

⁵“KeyMigrationTerms”

⁶“KeyMigrationTerms”

⁷“PrimaryDataCollectionTechniquesWorksheet”(InternationalOrganizationforMigration(IOM)

⁸ ReturnMigration, IOMGlobalMigrationDataAnalysisCentre,MigrationDataPortal November23,2023

⁹“Context:PromotingPeacefulTranshumanceinWestandCentralAfrica”TransitionandRecoveryDivision(InternationalOrganizationfor Migration(IOM),February2023)

¹⁰ “Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement” (Geneva: OCHA (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs), October 2004), E/CN4/1998/53/Add2; Roberta Cohen “Introduction to the Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement,” The Brookings Institution,September23,2001;“GuidingPrinciplesonInternalDisplacement:Summary InternalDisplacementMonitoringCentre(IDMC)

¹¹“TheUnitedNationsSecretary-GeneralsActionAgendaonInternalDisplacement”Follow-UptotheReportoftheUNSecretary-General’s High-LevelPanelonInternalDisplacement(UnitedNations,June2022)

¹²“IASCFrameworkonDurableSolutionsforInternallyDisplacedPersons,”TheBrookingsInstitution–UniversityofBernProjectonInternal Displacement(Washington,DC:Inter-AgencyStandingCommittee(IASC),April2010)

¹³ElizabethFerrisetal,“PROGRESS2023:PeriodicGlobalReportontheStateofSolutionstoInternalDisplacement”(Geneva,Switzerland: InternationalOrganizationforMigration(IOM) November2023)

¹⁴Ferrisetal PROGRESS2023:PeriodicGlobalReportontheStateofSolutionstoInternalDisplacement

¹⁵“GlobalReportonInternalDisplacement2023:InternalDisplacementandFoodSecurity”GlobalReportonInternalDisplacement(GRID) (Geneva,Switzerland InternalDisplacementMonitoringCentre,May11 2023)

¹⁶“TheUnitedNationsSecretary-General’sActionAgendaonInternalDisplacement”

¹⁷“GRID2023”

¹⁸“GRID2023

¹⁹ Michael M Cernea and Hari Mohan Mathur eds Can Compensation Prevent Impoverishment? Reforming Resettlement through InvestmentsandBenefit-Sharing(NewDelhi:OxfordUniversityPress,2008)

²⁰“ProposalforImprovingDataforSolutionstoDisplacement,”DataforSolutionstoInternalDisplacement(DSID)TaskForce,June2023,as quotedinFerrisetal “PROGRESS2023”

²¹Ferrisetal “PROGRESS2023”

²² Natalia Krynsky Baal et al “International Recommendations on Internally Displaced Persons Statistics (IRIS)” Eurostat Manuals and Guidelines(Luxembourg:ExpertGrouponRefugeeandInternallyDisplacedPersonsStatistics(EGRIS),March2020),doi:102785/18809

²³“PrimaryDataCollectionTechniquesWorksheet”

²⁴ Jabula Elijah Bello, DTM as a Tool for Early Warning and Durable Solutions in Nigeria, interview by Funke Aderonmu et al, October 16, 2023

²⁵“DataforGoodatMeta,”HumanitarianDataExchange,membersinceMarch13,2019,https://datahumdataorg/organization/meta?

²⁶ See “Metas Ongoing Efforts Regarding Russias Invasion of Ukraine, Meta (blog), February 26, 2022; “Data For Good at Meta: About, Meta accessedJanuary1 2024

²⁷Madelyn Sanfilippo et al, Disaster Privacy/Privacy Disaster, SSRN Scholarly Paper (Rochester, NY July 26, 2019), https://doiorg/102139/ssrn3427562

²⁸“KeyMigrationTerms”

²⁹ “Toolkit on International Migration” United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division Migration Section, June2012

³⁰ HE Bello Hamman Diram, Honorable Commissioner, and Staff, Durable Solutions and Early Warning with the Adamawa State EmergencyManagementAgencyandMinistryforReconstruction Rehabilitation ReintegrationandHumanitarianServices(RRR) interview byFunkeAderonmuetal,In-PersoninYola,Nigeria,October16,2023

³¹“Publications,” Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, accessed January 5, 2024, https://hhiharvardedu/browse/publications? page=1&f%5B0%5D=sm og vocabulary%3Ataxonomy term%3A172652

³²IsaacL Baker,BrittanyL Card,andNathanielA Raymond,“SatelliteImageryInterpretationGuide:DisplacedPopulationCamps, Signal ProgramonHumanSecurityandTechnology(Cambridge:HarvardHumanitarianInitiative April2015)

³³AnaBeduschi, HarnessingthePotentialofArtificialIntelligenceforHumanitarianAction OpportunitiesandRisks, InternationalReview oftheRedCross104,no 919(June16,2022):1149–69,https://doiorg/doi:101017/S1816383122000261

³⁴Kate Dodgson et al, “A Framework For The Ethical Use Of Advanced Data Science Methods In The Humanitarian Sector” (The HumanitarianDataScienceandEthicsGroup(DSEG),April1,2020)

³⁵“Handbook on Data Protection in Humanitarian Action” (Geneva Switzerland and Brussels Belgium: Data Protection Office of the InternationalCommitteeoftheRedCross(ICRC)andBrusselsPrivacyHub,May28,2020)

³⁶“OCHADataResponsibilityGuidelines”(OCHACentreforHumanitarianData October2021)

³⁷ Stuart R Campo et al, “Signal Code: Ethical Obligations for Humanitarian Information Activities” Standards and Ethics Series, Signal ProgramonHumanSecurityandTechnology(Cambridge:HarvardHumanitarianInitiative,May2018)

³⁸NathanielRaymondetal,“BuildingDataResponsibilityintoHumanitarianAction,”OCHAPolicyandStudiesSeries(UnitedNationsOffice fortheCoordinationofHumanitarianAffairs(OCHA),May2016),p 2

³⁹Campoetal “SignalCode”

⁴⁰ HandbookonDataProtectioninHumanitarianAction

⁴¹“OCHADataResponsibilityGuidelines”

⁴² “OCHADataResponsibilityGuidelines”

⁴³ Campo et al, “Signal Code”; “OCHA Data Responsibility Guidelines” Mark Latonero, “Stop Surveillance Humanitarianism,” The New York Times July12 2019 sec Opinion

⁴⁴ This approach is taken from Building Data Responsibility into Humanitarian Action and informed by Nathaniel Raymond, Ethics and Data”(PresentationtoWorkshopClass Princeton NewJerseyandNewHaven Connecticut October2 2023)

⁴⁵ This is not intended to be an exhaustive consideration of trauma-informed approaches to qualitative data collection Significant and substantive guidance exists within the United Nations system This is, rather, an illustrative list of how a trauma-informed approach can contribute to an appropriate ethical framing of qualitative data collection The information provided herein is derived from traumainformedtrainingoftheauthors,butformoreresearchontrauma-informedapproaches,seeEdwardJ AlessiandSarileeKahn,“Towarda Trauma-Informed Qualitative Research Approach: Guidelines for Ensuring the Safety and Promoting the Resilience of Research Participants, QualitativeResearchinPsychology20,no 1(January2023):121–54,https//doiorg/101080/1478088720222107967

⁴⁶FannyDufvenmark,“Rights-BasedApproachtoProgramming”(Geneva Switzerland:InternationalOrganizationforMigration(IOM),2015) ⁴⁷This definition is derived in part from “Policy on Gender-Based Crimes” (International Criminal Court: The Office of the Prosecutor, December2023),para 75

⁴⁸Robert Trigwell et al, “Validating Humanitarian Data Analysis through Collective Intelligence: A Pilot Study” (Geneva, Switzerland: International Organization for Migration (IOM) 2022)

⁴⁹ “A Human Rights-Based Approach to Data: Leaving No One Behind in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development” (Geneva: United Nations Office of the High CommissionerforHumanRights,2018),p 7–10

⁵⁰“InclusiveDataCharter:EverybodyCounts”GlobalPartnershipforSustainableDevelopmentData July2018 ⁵¹KrynskyBaaletal “InternationalRecommendations”,p 50 ⁵²“AHumanRights-BasedApproachtoData”

⁵³Rolando Avendano, Carolyn Culey, and Charlotte Balitrand, “Data and Diagnostics to Leave No One Behind,” in Development Co-Operation Report 2018: Joining Forces to LeaveNoOneBehind,5(Paris OrganisationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OECD),2018),https://doiorg/10/1787/dcr-2018-10-en;CheikhFayeandAminataDiop Kane “LeaveNoOnebehind:TheChallengesofCollectingDisaggregatedDataforSDGs”GlobalPartnershipforSustainableDevelopmentData(blog) October16 2018

⁵⁴ AHumanRights-BasedApproachtoData ,p 9–10

⁵⁵“A Human Rights-Based Approach to Data, ”p 8–13 See the relevant guidance note: “In some cases it may be necessary for logistical, political or other reasons to use demographic characteristics to identify a particular population For example, if a particular ethnic minority is not recognised by the State but is understood to reside exclusively in one location In this case, data about an individual’s place of residence may be thought to denote ipso facto, their ethnicity Where data is used in this way to identify particular groups data collectors should ensure that their handling and publishing of that data does not imply self-identification where disclosure of personal information relating to ethnicity identity has not occurred Data should be accurately described to make clear that the parameters established for a particular group have beensetaccordingtoplaceofresidence inthisexample andnottheself-identificationofgroupmembers”

⁵⁶SarahKopperandKatieParry,“SurveyDesign,”TheAbdulLatifJameelPovertyActionLab(J-PAL),September2023

⁵⁷ See, for example, “Gender Data,” Womens Resilience to Disasters Knowledge Hub, UN Women; and “Inclusive, Local and Accountable Engagement: Age, Gender and DiversityAccountabilityReport,”UNRefugeeAgency,2022,p 16

⁵⁸“SummaryConclusions 2021GlobalRoundtableonProtectionandSolutionsforLGBTIQ+PeopleinForcedDisplacement,”UnitedNationsHighCommissionforRefugees, August16 2021 p 24–25

⁵⁹Forlistsofpotentialformsofbiasandsuggestedsolutionstomitigatethem,seeBernardCK ChoiandAnitaWP Pak ACatalogofBiasesinQuestionnaires, Preventing ChronicDisease2,no 1(December15,2004):A13andSarahKopperandKatieParry,“IntroductiontoMeasurementandIndicators,”TheAbdulLatifJameelPovertyActionLab (J-PAL),February2022

⁶⁰KopperandParry,“IntroductiontoMeasurementandIndicators”

⁶¹“QuestionnaireDesign”TheWorldBankDIMEWIKI accessed5January2024 https://dimewikiworldbankorg/Questionnaire Design ⁶² UnconsiousBias(n), inOxfordEnglishDictionary(OxfordUniversityPress,July2023),https://doiorg/101093/OED/8631412731 ⁶³YaşarSuveren “UnconsciousBias:DefinitionandSignificance”PsikiyatrideGüncelYaklaşımlar14 no 3(September30 2022):414–26 https://doiorg/1018863/pgy1026607

⁶⁴ Nao Hagiwara et al, “A Call for Grounding Implicit Bias Training in Clinical and Translational Frameworks,” Lancet 395, no 10234 (May 2, 2020): 1457–60, https://doiorg/101016/S0140-6736(20)30846-1

⁶⁵“BiometricDeduplication,”UNAgencyWebsite,WorldFoodProgramSCOPEUserManual,accessedJanuary4,2024

⁶⁶Latonero,“StopSurveillanceHumanitarianism”;“Yemen’sHouthis,WFPReachDealtoResumeFoodRelief”AlJazeera,accessedJanuary1,2024 ⁶⁷OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment PreventingViolence WarandStateCollapse p 22 ⁶⁸CatherineDeFontaine, SettingupEarlyWarningandResponseSystemstoPreventViolentConflictsandSaveLives, DevelopmentforPeace:WorldBankBlogs,February 15,2019

⁶⁹ Carmen Lorena Ortíz, “Practical Guide: Early Warning and Response Systems Design for Social Conflicts” (Panama: Organization of American States and United Nations DevelopmentProgramme,2016),p 16

⁷⁰Ortíz “PracticalGuide”p 49-51

⁷¹AdaptedfromRaymond, EthicsandData

⁷² Paul-Simon Handy “CAR Elections Expose the Depth of the Country’s Crisis” Institute for Security Studies (ISS) January 13 2021; “CAR UN Chief Condemns Escalating ViolenceduringElectionCampaign”UNNews,December20,2020

⁷³ Louise Allen and Gina Chirillo, “Gender-Sensitive Indicators for Early Warning of Violence and Conflict: A Global Framework” (The International Foundation for Electoral Systems(IFES) May25,2021)

⁷⁴Forexample:FerasAlasalietal,“ASustainableEarlyWarningSystemUsingRollingForecastsBasedonANNandGoldenRatioOptimizationMethodstoAccuratelyPredict Real-TimeWaterLevelsandFlashFlood”Sensors21 no 13(July5 2021):4598 https://doiorg/103390/s21134598

⁷⁵ Hazard-specific early warning systems may address, for example, geographic hazards like tsunamis, earthquakes, volcanic activity, and landslides; hydrometeorological hazards, such as severe weather in land or at sea, including floods, droughts, hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones, tornadoes, and cold and heat waves; forest fires; biological hazards, including insect plagues like locust outbreaks and harmful algae blooms; health hazards, including vector-borne diseases and viruses; and pests and diseases on crops and livestock These may be single- or multiple-hazard systems See “Early Warning Systems,” United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UN-SPIDER) Knowledge

Portal

⁷⁶Margaret Macherera and Moses J Chimbari, A Review of Studies on Community Based Early Warning Systems, Jàmbá: Journal of Disaster Risk Studies 8, no 1 (March 17, 2016):11 https://doiorg/104102/jambav8i1206

⁷⁷ See, for example: “Community Early Warning Systems: Guiding Principles” (Geneva, Switzerland International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, September19,2020),“CommunityEarlyWarningSystems(CEWS)TrainingToolkit–FieldGuide”(InternationalFederationofRedCrossandRedCrescentSocieties September 19, 2020); Martin Krottmayer et al, “Public Awareness and Public Education for Disaster Risk Reduction: Action-Oriented Key Messages for Households and Schools” (InternationalFederationofRedCrossandRedCrescentSocietiesandSavetheChildren 2018);“ContingencyPlanningGuide”(Geneva:InternationalFederationofRedCross and Red Crescent Societies 2012) See also Yolanda Cowan Erin OBrien and Noroarisoa Rakotomalala-Rakotondrandria “Community-Based Early Warning Systems: Key PracticesforDRRImplementers, AFieldGuideforDisasterRiskReductioninSouthernAfrica:KeyPracticesforDRRImplementers(FoodandAgricultureOrganizationofthe UnitedNations 2014)andAnupPhaijuetal,“EstablishingCommunityBasedEarlyWarningSystem:Practitioner’sHandbook”(Nepal:MercyCorpsandPracticalAction,2010) ⁷⁸“EarlyWarningSystem,”UnitedNationsOfficeforDisasterRiskReduction(UNDRR),2015

⁷⁹ Damien Jusselme, “Transhumance Tracking Tool – a Regional Perspective of Mobility in West Africa,” Migration in West and North Africa and across the Mediterranean: Trends Risks DevelopmentandGovernance(Geneva Switzerland InternationalOrganizationforMigration September16 2020)

⁸⁰ Luisa Baptista de Freitas, Transhumance Tracking Tool (Virtual Meeting with IOM West and Central Africa, September 25 2023); Adamawa and Taraba State, Nigeria, TranshumanceTrackingTool(TTT)Report(Nigeria:InternationalOrganizationforMigration(IOM) October2023)

⁸¹Thecountriesare:Benin,BurkinaFaso,Cameroon,CentralAfricanRepublic Chad,Côted’Ivoire,Guinea,Mali,Mauritania,Niger,Nigeria,SierraLeone,andSomalia ⁸² Jusselme,“TranshumanceTrackingTool–aRegionalPerspectiveofMobilityinWestAfrica”;deFreitas,“TranshumanceTrackingTool” ⁸³“AdamawaState,Nigeria,”TranshumanceTrackingTool(TTT)Report(Nigeria:InternationalOrganizationforMigration(IOM) February2022)

⁸⁴ “A Region on the Move: Mobility Trends in West and Central Africa January - December 2021” (Dakar Senegal: International Organization for Migration (IOM), 2022); de Freitas “TranshumanceTrackingTool”

⁸⁵CatherineDeFontaine, EarlyWarningfromthePerspectiveoftheWorldBank (PresentationtoWorkshopClass,Princeton,NewJersey,November6 2023) ⁸⁶“COMITASProject:ConflictAssessmentReportinTenCommunitiesinAdamawaState Nigeria”(SearchforCommonGround,November2022)

⁸⁷DesalagnGurmessa,BriefBackgroundonTTT(TranshumanceTrackingTool),interviewbyFunkeAderonmu,DenisseChavarría,andBrontëForsgren,Yola,Nigeria,October 16,2023

⁸⁸ConventionontheRightsoftheChild Article12(1) ⁸⁹InGeneralcommentno 14ontherightofthechildtohavehisorherbestintereststakenasaprimaryconsideration((CRC/C/GC/14),May29,2013),theCommitteeonthe RightsoftheChildstatesthatStatespartiesareobligedto“[recognize]childrenasrightsholders”(para 16(b))in“givingfulleffecttothechild’sbestinterests”(para16) ⁹⁰Generalcommentno 12ontherightofthechildtobeheard(CRC/C/GC/12),CommitteeontheRightsoftheChild,July20,2009,para 122 ⁹¹ Catherine Baillie Abidi and Laura Cleave, “Child Responsive Conflict Early Warning: Prioritizing Children in Peace and Security,” Civil Wars, August 17, 2023, 1–24, https://doiorg/101080/1369824920232233257

⁹²Laura Cleave and William Watkins “Child Soldiers and Early Warning” Allons-y: Journal of Children Peace and Security

4 (September 30 2020): 61–72 https://doiorg/1015273/allons-yv4i010084

⁹³ Fabienne Vinet “Displacement of Children” UN Agency Website Office of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General for Children and Armed Conflict accessed December3,2023 See,also,AlexisReynaud,“ChildrenandYouthinInternalDisplacement”(InternalDisplacementMonitoringCentre(IDMC) 2022) Ondisplacedpersonsand recruitment of child soldiers specifically, see, Vera Achvarina and Simon F Reich, “No Place to Hide Refugees, Displaced Persons, and the Recruitment of Child Soldiers,” InternationalSecurity 31(1)(2006) https://wwwjstororg/stable/4137541 p 127–164

⁹⁴ Handbook on Children Recruited and Exploited by Terrorist and Violent Extremist Groups: The Role of the Justice System (Vienna: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime 2017) p 40

⁹⁵ Laetitia Bader, No Place for Children: Child Recruitment, Forced Marriage, and Attacks on Schools in Somalia” (Human Rights Watch, February 20, 2012) Note that this articleincludestheviewpointsofstudentsandteacherswhohavefledtoKenya,ratherthanfledtoanotherlocationwithinSomalia ⁹⁶“SendaiFrameworkforDisasterRiskReduction2015-2030”(UnitedNations,March18,2015),para 36(ii)

⁹⁷ Marie-Ange Baudoin et al, “Early Warning Systems and Livelihood Resilience: Exploring Opportunities for Community Participation,” UNU-EHS Working Paper Series, LivelihoodResilienceintheFaceofGlobalEnvironmentalChange(Bonn:UnitedNationsUniversityInstituteofEnvironmentandHumanSecurity(UNU-EHS) December2014)

⁹⁸ Katherine Hore et al, Child-Centred Disaster Risk Reduction, Child-Centred Risk Reduction Research-into-Action Brief (Global Alliance for Disaster Risk Reduction & ResilienceintheEducationSector 2018)

⁹⁹ Robert Šakić Trogrlić et al, “Early Warning Systems and Their Role in Disaster Risk Reduction,” in Towards the “Perfect” Weather Warning: Bridging Disciplinary Gaps throughPartnershipandCommunication,ed BrianGolding(Cham:SpringerInternationalPublishing,2022),11–46,https://doiorg/101007/978-3-030-98989-7 2

¹⁰⁰Horeetal “Child-CentredDisasterRiskReduction”

¹⁰¹ClaireOKane, GuidelinesforChildrensParticipationinHumanitarianProgramming (London:SavetheChildren,2013)

¹⁰² “Report of the Special Rapporteur on the Human Rights of Internally Displaced Persons” (Seventy-Fourth Session of the United Nations General Assembly July 31 2019 A/74/261),para 29

¹⁰³“ReportoftheSpecialRapporteurontheHumanRightsofInternallyDisplacedPersons”,para 132–134

¹⁰⁴O’Kane,“GuidelinesforChildren’sParticipationinHumanitarianProgramming”

¹⁰⁵See,forexample,“OlderPeopleinCommunityDevelopment:TheRoleofOlderPeoplesAssociations(OPAs)inEnhancingLocalDevelopment”(HelpAgeInternational,July 22 2010)

¹⁰⁶ Age-InclusiveDisasterRiskReduction:AToolkit (ChiangMai,Thailand:HelpAgeInternational,October9,2019),p 35

¹⁰⁷“Age-InclusiveDisasterRiskReduction”p 70

¹⁰⁸“SubmissiontotheCallforInputsonClimateChange-2023GAReport”(HumanRightsWatch,April2023)

¹⁰⁹KathleenKuehnastandDanielleRobertson,“GenderInclusiveFrameworkandTheory”(UnitedStatesInstituteofPeace,2018)

¹¹⁰“GlossaryofTerms”HumanRightsCampaign https://wwwhrcorg/resources/glossary-of-terms

¹¹¹ Definitions, Free&EqualUnitedNations(blog),https://wwwunfeorg/definitions/

¹¹²“Definitions”Free&EqualUnitedNations

¹¹³ IntersexPeople”UnitedNationsOfficeoftheHighCommissioneronHumanRights

¹¹⁴“Definitions,”Free&EqualUnitedNations

¹¹⁵ “LGBTI and Gender-Diverse Persons in Forced Displacement: Independent Expert on Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity,” United Nations Office of the High CommissionerforHumanRights

¹¹⁶“ForciblydisplacedLGBTpersonsfaceexacerbatedchallengesinsearchofsafehaven”StatementbyhumanrightsexpertsontheInternationalDayagainstHomophobia TransphobiaandBiphobia,UnitedNationsHumanRightsSpecialProcedures,May17,2022

¹¹⁷UnitedNationsSecurityCouncilResolution1325(2000)andGeneralrecommendationno 37ongender-relateddimensionsofdisasterriskreductioninachangingclimate (CEDAW/C/GC/37),CommitteeontheEliminationofDiscriminationAgainstWomen March13,2018,para 2 ¹¹⁸GeneralrecommendationNo 30onwomeninconflictprevention conflictandpost-conflictsituations(CEDAW/C/GC/30) CommitteeontheEliminationofDiscrimination Against Women October 18 2013 and General recommendation No 37 on gender-related dimensions of disaster risk reduction in a changing climate (CEDAW/C/G/GC/37) CommitteeontheEliminationofDiscriminationAgainstWomen,March13,2018

¹¹⁹PabloCastilloDíazandSunitaCaminha “GenderResponsiveEarlyWarning:OverviewandHow-toGuide”(UNWomen:UnitedNationsEntityforGenderEqualityandthe EmpowermentofWomen,October2012)

¹²⁰CastilloDíazandCaminha,“GenderResponsiveEarlyWarning”

¹²¹ “Inclusive and Accessible Multi-Hazard Early-Warning Systems: Learning from Women-Led Early-Warning Systems in the Pacific” (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction,March23 2022)

¹²²“InclusiveandAccessibleMulti-HazardEarly-WarningSystems”p 33–50

¹²³SusanneSchmeidlandEugeniaPiza-Lopez, GenderandConflictEarlyWarning:AFrameworkforAction (InternationalAlertandSwissPeaceFoundation,June2002) ¹²⁴SarahBrownetal “GenderTransformativeEarlyWarningSystems ExperiencesfromNepalandPeru”(PracticalAction March13 2019)

¹²⁵PhumzileMlambo-Ngcuka,“Statement:PeaceHutWomenofLiberiaWins2019UNPopulationAward,”UNWomen,June20,2019

¹²⁶ “Mapping Women Peace Hut as Conflict Early Warning Mechanism to Advance Women Peace and Security at Local Level Assessment Report on Early Warning and WomenPeaceHutsinFiveCommunitiesfromLofa GrandGedeh MargibiandCapeMountCounties”(LiberiaPeacebuildingOffice November29 2018 toDecember11 2018) p 5–7

¹²⁷ Alison Barclay Michelle Higelin and Melissa Bungcaras “On the Frontline: Catalysing Women’s Leadership in Humanitarian Action” (London: ActionAid May 18 2017); Brownetal, GenderTransformativeEarlyWarningSystems”

¹²⁸Barclay,Higelin,andBungcaras,“OntheFrontline”

¹²⁹Brownetal,“GenderTransformativeEarlyWarningSystems”

¹³⁰“LGBTQI+InclusiveDevelopmentPolicy”UnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopment,August2023,p 6

¹³¹ See for example Catherine Jones et al “Applying an Inclusive and Equitable Approach to Anticipatory Action” (Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,2020)

¹³² Steeve Laguerre et al “The Impact of the Earthquake and Relief and Recovery Programs on Haitian LGBT People” (International Gay and Lesbian Human Rights Commission,2011)

¹³³Laguerreetal,“TheImpactoftheEarthquake,andReliefandRecoveryProgramsonHaitianLGBTPeople”

¹³⁴Unlesscitedotherwise informationforthissectionisderivedfrom:AllenandChirillo “Gender-SensitiveIndicatorsforEarlyWarningofViolenceandConflict”

¹³⁵Pleaserefertothe Gender-SensitiveIndicators reportforacomprehensiveconsiderationoftherationaleforeachindicator,thedefinitionalconsiderationsthatmustbe considered andpossibledatacollectionstrategies

¹³⁶ EarlyWarningSystem,”UnitedNationsOfficeforDisasterRiskReduction(UNDRR),2015,p 26-29

¹³⁷Definitionalconsiderationsareindicatedforeachofthegender-sensitiveearlywarningindicatorsproposedinthe“Gender-SensitiveIndicators”report ¹³⁸LouisaYasukawa,“AdvancingDisability-InclusiveActiononInternalDisplacement”(InternalDisplacementMonitoringCentre(IDMC),December2022) ¹³⁹ConventionontheRightsofPersonswithDisabilities,2006,Article1

¹⁴⁰“IASCGuidelines InclusionofPersonswithDisabilitiesinHumanitarianAction”(Inter-AgencyStandingCommittee(IASC) November19 2019);“QuestionSets”Washington GrouponDisabilityStatistics December10,2020; DisabilityDataAdvocacyToolkit (CBMGlobalDisabilityInclusion,June2020);T B Üstünetal,eds,MeasuringHealthand Disability:ManualforWHODisabilityAssessmentScheduleWHODAS20(Geneva WorldHealthOrganization 2010) ¹⁴¹Yasukawa,“AdvancingDisability-InclusiveActiononInternalDisplacement” ¹⁴²“RegistroÚnicodeVíctimas(RUV),”UnidadparalasVíctimas,July10,2017

¹⁴³Yasukawa “AdvancingDisability-InclusiveActiononInternalDisplacement”

¹⁴⁴See Betty Dion and Aqueel Qureshi, Guideline on Inclusive Disaster Risk Reduction: Early Warning and Accessible Broadcasting, Global Alliance on Accessible TechnologiesandEnvironments

¹⁴⁵ “We Can Replace Things but We Can’t Replace People: Protecting Lives through Inclusive Early Warning Systems in the Bahamas” United Nations Development Programme August17,2023

¹⁴⁶“InclusiveandAccessibleMulti-HazardEarly-WarningSystems”

¹⁴⁷ Report of the Special Rapporteur on the human rights of internally displaced persons on persons with disabilities in the context of internal displacement (A/HRC/44/41), UnitedNationsGeneralAssemblyHumanRightsCouncil,May14 2020

¹⁴⁸“IASCGuidelines InclusionofPersonswithDisabilitiesinHumanitarianAction”

¹⁴⁹SeetheDeclarationontheRightsofIndigenousPersonsandtheDeclarationontheRightsofPersonsBelongingtoNationalorEthnic ReligiousandLinguisticMinorities, GeneralAssemblyresolution47/135 18December1992

¹⁵⁰BillyRwothungeyo EarlyWarningMechanismsKeytoCalmingEthnicTensions,”MinorityRightsGroup,December7,2021

¹⁵¹ In the context of gender-based violence and displacement, see Lena Musoka, “Religion and the Crisis of Displaced Persons: Gender Religion, and Displacement,” Berkley Forum,September11,2023

¹⁵²MadhawaP Palihapitiya,“Faith-BasedConflictEarlyWarning ExperiencesfromTwoConflictZones,”TheJournalofInterreligiousStudies,24(December2018),p 70–72 ¹⁵³JoeyAger ElenaFiddian-Qasmiyeh andAlastairAger “LocalFaithCommunitiesandthePromotionofResilienceinContextsofHumanitarianCrises”JournalofRefugee Studies,28(2)(2015),p 207

¹⁵⁴ See “Media and Telecommunications Landscape Guide: South Sudan” REACH International August 2017; “Understanding the Information and Communication Needs AmongIDPsinNorthernIraq,”Inter-AgencyRapidAssessmentReport,August2014;and“Howlanguagebarriersreduceaccesstohumanitarianservices,reducethequalityof those services and aggravate social exclusion for Rohingya communities” Translators Without Borders, September 2019 See also, Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement Principle22(e)

¹⁵⁵ HowaFocusonLanguageCanImproveResponsestoInternalDisplacement ACaseStudyfromNortheastNigeria (TranslatorsWithoutBorders,May2020)

¹⁵⁶UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme “IndigenousDisasterEarlyWarning Preparedness andResponse”EnvironmentalEmergenciesNews no 6(April2007)

¹⁵⁷RohitJigyasu, HarnessingtheKnowledgeofIndigenousCommunitiesforDRR,”UnitedNationsOfficeforDisasterRiskReduction(UNDRR)PreventionWeb,August6,2020

¹⁵⁸“UsingTraditionalandIndigenousKnowledgesforDisasterRiskReduction,”WordsIntoAction(Geneva:UnitedNationsOfficeforDisasterRiskReduction(UNDRR),2022), p 12,35-36

¹⁵⁹ Wonesai W Sithole, Mostafa M Naser, and Lorenzo Guadagno, “Indigenous Knowledge for Disaster Risk Reduction: Documenting Community Practices in Papua New Guinea” (Port Moresby Papua New Guinea: International Organization for Migration (IOM) 2015) On co-production of knowledge see Marie Roué Douglas Nakashima and Igor Krupnik, eds, Resilience through Knowledge Co-Production: Indigenous Knowledge, Science, and Global Environmental Change, 1st ed (Cambridge University Press, 2022) https://doiorg/101017/9781108974349

¹⁶⁰“UsingTraditionalandIndigenousKnowledgesforDisasterRiskReduction”p 20

¹⁶¹“UsingTraditionalandIndigenousKnowledgesforDisasterRiskReduction”

¹⁶² Pablo Cortés Ferrández and Vincent Fung “When Land Knowledge and Roots Are Lost: Indigenous Peoples and Displacement” Briefing Paper (Internal Displacement MonitoringCentre(IDMC),August2021)

¹⁶³“Earlywarningandeconomic socialandculturalrights”OfficeoftheUnitedNationsHighCommissionerforHumanRights 2016 para 28

¹⁶⁴ MinoritiesandindigenouspeoplesinKenya:Pastoralists,”MinorityRightsGroupInternational,January2018

¹⁶⁵“Conflict,PeaceandResolution”[Backgrounder],TheUnitedNationsPermanentForumonIndigenousIssues,2016 ¹⁶⁶“Earlywarningandeconomic,socialandculturalrights,”para 48,51

¹⁶⁷INDIA:Anotherforceddisplacementduetocastebaseddiscrimination,AsianHumanRightsCommission(2008),AHRC-AUC-112-2008

¹⁶⁸ “Poverty and Inequality as a Risk Driver of Disaster” United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) PreventionWeb,June9,2021

¹⁶⁹ Paulo Sergio Tomás et al “Integrating Shock-Responsive Social Protection into Anticipatory Action Protocols Ahead of a Drought in Mozambique” Anticipation Hub January20 2022

¹⁷⁰Baudoinetal,“EarlyWarningSystemsandLivelihoodResilience:ExploringOpportunitiesforCommunityParticipation” ¹⁷¹“GoodPracticesBrochure:InternallyDisplacedPeoplewithIntersectingVulnerabilities”GenderinHumanitarianAction November2022

¹⁷²MiriannaBudimiretal, EarlyWarninginRemote,MountainousCommunities:TacklingEnergyandMobileConnectivityIssues, LondonSchoolofEconomicsInternational Development(blog) November7 2022

¹⁷³SeetheZurichFloodResilienceMeasurementforCommunitiestool,whichhelpsmapexistingfloodresilienciesandprovideinputondevelopingthisresiliencefurther ¹⁷⁴AlexKirkwood,“ImprovingEarlyWarningintheRemoteHimalayas,”EnhancingLearningandResearchforHumanitarianAssistance(ELRHA)(blog),June17,2022 ¹⁷⁵ReportoftheSecretary-GeneralonChildrenandarmedconflictinSouthSudan(S/2023/99)(February10,2023),para 70

¹⁷⁶ Report of the Special Rapporteur on trafficking in persons, especially women and children, Siobhán Mullally, on Visit to South Sudan (A/HRC/53/28/Add 2) (May 16, 2023), para 24

¹⁷⁷Anna Matveeva, Early Warning and Early Response: Conceptual and Empirical Dilemmas, Issue Paper 1 (The Hague: Global Partnership for the Prevention of Armed Conflict September2006)

¹⁷⁸ David Nyheim and John Sislin, “Early Warning: Employment and Related ILO Concerns” Working Paper, InFocus Programme on Crisis Response and Reconstruction (Geneva:InternationalLabourOffice,January2002),ISBN92-2-112863-6,p 16

¹⁷⁹“IntegratingEarlyWarningintoRelevantPolicies”(Bonn Germany:SecondInternationalConferenceonEarlyWarning(EWCII) October16 2003) p 1 ¹⁸⁰NyheimandSislin, EarlyWarning:EmploymentandRelatedILOConcerns

¹⁸¹ Daniel Maxwell “Humanitarian Challenges and Implications for Famine Early Warning Systems” in Accountability for Mass Starvation: Testing the Limits of the Law ed BridgetConleyetal,1sted,11vols (Oxford:OxfordUniversityPress,2022),297-C11N56,https://doiorg/101093/oso/97801928647340030011

¹⁸²EdithM Lederer “UNChief:WarinEthiopia’sTigrayMustEnd,EritreaExit,”APNews,October17,2022

¹⁸³CenterforPreventativeAction,“ConflictinEthiopia,”CouncilonForeignRelationsGlobalConflictTracker,December19,2023;“EthiopiaHumanitarianCrisis:Aid Statistics andNews,”USAforUNHCR

¹⁸⁴NyheimandSislin “EarlyWarning:EmploymentandRelatedILOConcerns”p 16

¹⁸⁵NyheimandSislin, EarlyWarning:EmploymentandRelatedILOConcerns p 16 p 19,24 ¹⁸⁶Matveeva “EarlyWarningandEarlyResponse:ConceptualandEmpiricalDilemmas” p 14–15 17

¹⁸⁷Maxwell,“HumanitarianChallengesandImplicationsforFamineEarlyWarningSystems” ¹⁸⁸Matveeva,“EarlyWarningandEarlyResponse:ConceptualandEmpiricalDilemmas”,p 18 ¹⁸⁹Maxwell “HumanitarianChallengesandImplicationsforFamineEarlyWarningSystems” ¹⁹⁰NyheimandSislin, EarlyWarning:EmploymentandRelatedILOConcerns p 23 ¹⁹¹“WhenDisplacementEnds”

¹⁹² Xavier Devictor ed, Forcibly Displaced: Toward a Development Approach Supporting Refugees, the Internally Displaced, and Their Hosts (Washington, DC, USA: World BankGroup,2017),https://doiorg/101596/97/8-1-4648-0938-5

¹⁹³Devictor,ForciblyDisplaced ¹⁹⁴“AboutUs,”UnitedNationsNetworkonMigration,https://migrationnetworkunorg/about ¹⁹⁵“WhenDisplacementEnds”

¹⁹⁶ See,forexample, WhenDisplacementEnds, p 5–9 ¹⁹⁷“WhenDisplacementEnds”p 9–10 ¹⁹⁸Cohen,“IntroductiontotheGuidingPrinciplesonInternalDisplacement” ¹⁹⁹“WhenDisplacementEnds”

²⁰⁰“ADevelopmentApproachtoConflict-InducedInternalDisplacement”(Washington DC:TheWorldBank January2021)

²⁰¹ WhenDisplacementEnds

²⁰²“ColombiaCountryProfile”InternalDisplacementMonitoringCentre(IDMC) May24 2023

²⁰³ Colombia DisplacementAssociatedwithConflictandViolence,”FiguresAnalysis2020(InternalDisplacementMonitoringCentre(IDMC),2021)

²⁰⁴“Colombia FigureAnalysis-DisplacementRelatedtoConflictandViolence”FigureAnalysis(InternalDisplacementMonitoringCentre(IDMC) 2019)

²⁰⁵ Colombia FigureAnalysis-DisplacementRelatedtoConflictandViolence ; Colombia:DisplacementAssociatedwithConflictandViolence

²⁰⁶“AssessmentofKeyDatasets&WebPortalsforImmediateResearchOpportunitiesinColombia”(Bogotá UnitedNationsHighCommissiononRefugees May18 2023)

²⁰⁷“Colombia DisplacementAssociatedwithConflictandViolence”

²⁰⁸ Roberto Carlos Vidal López, Clara Inés Atehortúa Arredondo, and Jorge Salcedo, “The Effects of Internal Displacement on Host Communities: A Case Study of Suba and CiudadBolívarLocalitiesinBogotá Colombia”(Bogotá BrookingsInstitution-LondonSchoolofEconomicsProjectonInternalDisplacement October2011) p 9-10

²⁰⁹VidalLópez,AtehortúaArredondo,andSalcedo,p 10-12

²¹⁰MaxSchoening “TheRiskofReturningHome:ViolenceandThreatsagainstDisplacedPeopleReclaimingLandinColombia”HumanRightsWatch September17 2013

²¹¹PabloCortésFerrández, TheLastRefuge:UrbanDisplacementinColombia,”InternalDisplacementMonitoringCentre(IDMC),November2020

²¹² “ReturnIndex-IRAQDTM,”2024,https://iraqdtmiomint/returnindex#Dashboard

²¹³“SolutionandMobilityIndex,”GlobalDataInstituteDisplacementTrackingMatrix,November21,2022

²¹⁴CreatedtooperationalizetheIASCFrameworkonDurableSolutionsforInternallyDisplacedPersons

²¹⁵DevelopedbymembersoftheRefugeeSelfRelianceInitiativewithleadershipfromRefugePointandWomen’sRefugeeCommission

²¹⁶ThissectionisinformedbyanOctober2023teamsitevisittotheMalkohiDurableSolutionssiteinYola,Nigeria,andbydiscussionswithawidevarietyofUNworkersand local stakeholders in Yola including but not limited to: Jabula Elijah Bello; Momsiri Wesley Gambo; Umaru Abubakar HE Bello Hamman Diram Honorable Commissioner; Esther Avindia; Ezekiel Ava'abem Aguh; Bittinger Mshelia; Ahmed Asekome; Maliki Hamidine; Ameh Celestin; and Ronnie Harold Miroh For positions and titles, see Acknowledgements

²¹⁷JabulaElijahBello “AnalysisoftheChallengesofResettlingInternallyDisplacedPersons(IDPs)InducedbyBokoHaramInsurgencyinAdamawa”(PostGraduateDiploma inPeaceStudiesandConflictResolution,Abuja,Nigeria,NationalOpenUniversityofNigeria(NOUN),2020)

²¹⁸BittingerMsheliaandEzekielAva’abemAguh Shelter Housing andLandforIDPsinYola Nigeria interviewbyFunkeAderonmu DenisseChavarría andBrontëForsgren In-PersoninYola,Nigeria,October17,2023

²¹⁹ Human Rights Council, “Addendum: Report of the Representative of the Secretary-General on the Human Rights of Internally Displaced Persons: Framework on Durable SolutionsforInternallyDisplacedPersons”(TheUnitedNationsGeneralAssembly,February9,2010);“IASCFrameworkonDurableSolutionsforInternallyDisplacedPersons” ²²⁰BrianKellyetal,“Reportfrom‘IDPSolutions’Inter-AgencyTriptoKandahar,Afghanistan,”UnitedNationsTripReport(UnitedNations,November2,2022)

²²¹AnaMosneagaandMichaellaVanore “AnAge-SensitiveApproachtoDurableSolutions”ForcedMigrationReview52(May2016);“IASCFrameworkonDurableSolutionsfor InternallyDisplacedPersons

²²²MosneagaandVanore “AnAge-SensitiveApproachtoDurableSolutions”

²²³“Georgia:PartialProgresstowardsDurableSolutionsforIDPs”(InternalDisplacementMonitoringCentre,March21,2012)

²²⁴AllpublicationscitedinthistextboxwereproducedbytheGeorgetownUniversityInstitutefortheStudyofInternationalMigrationandtheInternationalOrganizationfor Migration See Rochelle Davis et al “Access to Durable Solutions Among IDPs in Iraq: Part One” (Georgetown Institute for the Study of International Migration and International Organization for Migration (IOM), April 2017) and Salma Al-Shami, Rochelle Davis, and Jeffrey Woodham, Access to Durable Solutions Among IDPs in Iraq Six YearsinDisplacement”(GeorgetownInstitutefortheStudyofInternationalMigrationandInternationalOrganizationforMigration(IOM) January18 2022)

²²⁵ Salma Al-Shami et al, Access to Durable Solutions Among IDPs in Iraq: Three Years in Displacement” (Georgetown Institute for the Study of International Migration and InternationalOrganizationforMigration(IOM),February12,2019)

²²⁶OlgaAymerich,“ManagingReturninAnbar:CommunityResponsestotheReturnofIDPswithPerceivedAffiliation”(InternationalOrganizaionforMigration(IOM)andThe ReturnsWorkingGroup(RWG),December31,2021)

²²⁷Al-Shamietal “AccesstoDurableSolutionsAmongIDPsinIraq ThreeYearsinDisplacement”

²²⁸ Elizabeth Ferris, Access to Durable Solutions Among IDPs in Iraq: Unpacking the Policy Implications (Georgetown Institute for the Study of International Migration and InternationalOrganizationforMigration(IOM) October8 2020) p 27

²²⁹Ferris,“AccesstoDurableSolutionsAmongIDPsinIraq:UnpackingthePolicyImplications”,p 29

²³⁰Ferris,“AccesstoDurableSolutionsAmongIDPsinIraq:UnpackingthePolicyImplications”,p 27-29

²³¹Ferris “AccesstoDurableSolutionsAmongIDPsinIraq:UnpackingthePolicyImplications” p 25

²³²Ferris, AccesstoDurableSolutionsAmongIDPsinIraq:UnpackingthePolicyImplications ,p 29 ²³³Ferris “AccesstoDurableSolutionsAmongIDPsinIraq:UnpackingthePolicyImplications” p 6

²³⁴Ferris, AccesstoDurableSolutionsAmongIDPsinIraq:UnpackingthePolicyImplications”,p 28-29

²³⁵Aymerich,“ManagingReturninAnbar:CommunityResponsestotheReturnofIDPswithPerceivedAffiliation,”p 19 ²³⁶ “Access to Durable Solutions Among IDPs in Iraq Four Years in Displacement” (Georgetown Institute for the Study of International Migration and International OrganizationforMigration(IOM),November13,2019)

²³⁷“AccesstoDurableSolutionsAmongIDPsinIraq:ExperiencesApplyingtoCompensation”(Baghdad Iraq:InternationalOrganizationforMigration(IOM) January16 2020)

²³⁸RochelleDavisandSalmaAl-Shami, AccesstoDurableSolutionsAmongIDPsinIraq:ExperiencesofFemale-HeadedHouseholds (GeorgetownInstitutefortheStudyof InternationalMigrationandInternationalOrganizationforMigration(IOM) September23 2020) p 17

²³⁹Aymerich,“ManagingReturninAnbar:CommunityResponsestotheReturnofIDPswithPerceivedAffiliation”

A U T H O R B I O S

MIKAYLAH LADUE

Mikaylah is a second year Master in Public Affairs student at Princeton University and a Scholars in the Nation’s Service Initiative fellow. During her fellowship, she held positions with the U.S. Department of Justice, U.S. Department of State, and U.S. Institute of Peace. She holds a bachelor’s degree in legal and political anthropology from Princeton University.

DENISSE CHAVARRÍA

Denisse is a second year Master in Public Affairs student at Princeton Her interest areas include economic development, migration, and education policies, especially focused in Latin America Prior to SPIA she worked at the Ministry of Economics of El Salvador as an economic analyst, giving technical support and evidence for policies and programs set in the public agenda, participated in creating youth development programs, and collaborated in programs regarding regarding sector development, intellectual property, commerce and investment attraction, among others. She holds a bachelor’s degree in Economics from the University of Central America (UCA El Salvador).

BRONTË FORSGREN

Brontë is a second year Master in Public Affairs Student at Princeton, with a focus on Economics and Public Policy. Brontë spent three years as an EvidenceBased Policy Analyst at the philanthropy Arnold Ventures. While at SPIA, she completed an internship with the Right-Fit Evidence Unit at Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA) in Kampala, Uganda. A proud Utah native, she holds bachelors degrees in Political Science and Economics from Utah State University.

GREG GUGGENMOS

Greg is a data scientist and policy advocate currently pursuing a Master’s of Public Affairs at Princeton University Prior to his graduate work at Princeton, Greg founded the Community Bail Fund of North Texas and was a statistical consultant and program manager at the Deason Criminal Justice Reform Center in Dallas, Texas He provided quantitative research and advocacy around pretrial detention, indigent defense, prosecutorial reform, and rural justice initiatives

A U T H O R B I O S

KRISTINA LORCH

Kristina is an MPA/JD student at Princeton’s School of Public and International Affairs and the University of Virginia School of Law She is particularly interested in how emerging trends and technologies affect international and national security law in the United States She holds a bachelor’s degree in Government from Harvard University The views expressed here are her own and do not necessarily reflect those of any employer

FUNKE ADERONMU

Funke is a Master in Public Affairs candidate at Princeton University, studying international development with a regional focus on Africa Before Princeton, she worked for the U S Agency for International Development, supporting programs to reduce hunger, malnutrition and poverty globally Prior to that, she worked in research and advocacy to advance racial, gender and economic equity as a policy analyst with the Georgetown Center on Poverty and and Poverty and Inequality, and as a Bill Emerson National Hunger Fellow with the Congressional Hunger Center After Princeton, Funke aims to help develop evidence-based and equitable policies to combat poverty and promote inclusive economic development in Africa and globally She holds bachelors degrees in international relations and economics with honors from the University of California, Davis

T NANG SENG PAN

T Nang Seng Pan is a second year Master in Public Affairs candidate at the School of Public & International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University. Prior to SPIA, she worked in the humanitarian and development sectors in Myanmar. She is interested in the health and technology aspects of development. She holds a bachelor’s degree in International Studies from Juniata College.