Embracing for a world post COVID-19 lockdown by Vivek Seth

embracing for a world post COVID-19 lockdown

by Vivek Seth

The year 2020 is likely to be etched in our memories for a long spell of time across the globe. Right at the onset of this year when we were just over with new year celebrations, the world witnessed the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The infectious disease came as a surprise to governments and businesses across the world; by mid- May, it had already affected over 5 million people and resulted in over 300,000 deaths worldwide 1 , and these numbers are increasing further at the moment. While efforts are underway to create a vaccine that provides immunization against this newly discovered disease, many governments have taken a stand of imposing restrictions on normal business operations, trade, and travel. Corporations across the globe have implemented work from home measures on a neverseen-before scale to help contain the spread of the disease. Even nations that have not imposed such strict lockdown conditions have strongly advised their citizens to adhere with social distancing measures and best hygiene practices. Numerous countries have witnessed high mortalities, delays in key events like holding elections, Olympics & business events such as Expo 2020; some nations have unfortunately also experienced the second wave of pandemic spread. The global outbreak is clearly impacting the world at economic, social, and political levels at an alarming rate.

As the world is coming to terms with the extent of the pandemic outbreak, it is equally crucial to understand how the world is likely to operate once the pandemic spread has subsided and global lockdowns are over. Broadly speaking, we can expect to see the following trends, risks and opportunities arising out of COVID-19:

Economical

The International Monetary Fund in their April 2020 economic outlook 2 highlighted that due to the pandemic, the global economy is projected to contract sharply by negative 3 percent in 2020, a contraction even much worse than experienced during the 2008–09 financial crisis. It is anticipated that the pandemic containment effort will keep us busy throughout 2020, with possible spillover effects felt in 2021. Clearly, this trend will directly affect industries such as airlines, tourism, entertainment, however it is likely to indirectly affect numerous industries across manufacturing and service sectors. This impact is expected to be negative as financial market outlook, customer sentiments, and demand for goods for short and medium term are being forecasted to be below par when compared with pre-lockdown period.

According to the April 2020 report 3 of Institute for Supply Management - known for its U.S. surveys, the largest economy is in its contraction stage across both manufacturing and service sectors. Similar economic observations are also felt across the world implying restructuring measures such as downsizing, reorganizations of business operations, automation of repeated tasks aimed at cost reduction and reskilling of workforce population will become the new normal across the globe. Companies that fall behind in adjusting to these belt tightening measures are likely to lose their customer & shareholder market to their agile competitors. This new era would also be an opportunistic moment for corporations to adopt more efficient ways of doing business at a faster pace such as wider usage of remote working facilities and online transactions and payments. Smarter governments will strive towards adoption of efficient fuel consumption and local supply chain facilities and push towards ecological friendly alternatives such as greater usage of solar and wind energies.

Political

During this crisis, the world has witnessed different spectrums of geopolitical dynamics. Some governments have taken a rudimentary stance such as initially downplaying the seriousness of the pandemic, blaming other countries for the infection spread and refusing to acknowledge the weakness in their healthcare infrastructure. One such instance was when the U.S made the bold decision recently to halt funding to the World Health Organization citing WHO failed in its basic duty 4 . The fear of the pandemic spread is also being used by fundamentalist ideologists to blame it on minorities, immigrants, and low-income households as part of polarization of mass’s opinions. Such phobia is evident in news 5 of irrational behaviors observed across the globe such as helping doctors & medical staff being physically attacked and chased away by mobs based on baseless rumors.

On the other hand, sensible nations have collaborated towards containing the infection spread via aiding one another on financial grounds, supply of healthcare items, and sharing of medical information on Coronavirus cases. WHO members are striving towards collaborating on accelerating the development, production and equitable global access to essential health technologies 6 . At the United Nations forum, world leaders, scientists, humanitarians and private sector partners have collaborated on making new tools and medicines to diagnose and treat COVID-19 7 . Countries that work together towards this mutually beneficial common goal will emerge as more robust economies that will be more prepared when future pandemics strike.

Nations with leaders that acknowledge we are all together in this pandemic fight will show faster recovery and restoration to normal status quo. Strong multilateral cooperation is essential to overcome the effects of the pandemic, especially in order to help third world countries that are constrained by funding shocks and weak health care systems. It is also an opportunity for these countries to upgrade and enhance healthcare infrastructure, their public healthcare funding and insurance policies so as to stay adequately prepared for next health crisis.

Social

Post-lockdown, altered patterns of social behavior could be seen across the world on how we interact with each other, consume resources, and prioritize our personal goals. A lot of us may now prefer non-contact greetings, social distancing when in crowded places, and be more conscious of personal hygiene, thanks to global awareness campaigns circulated during this crisis. Staying at home during the lockdowns has also helped us appreciate better the time spent with family & friends; an average employee is likely to have more career expectation with regards to working from home and other work-life balance options. Having witnessed how a global pandemic halts daily routine of life, many of us will have more inclination towards job opportunities that provide self-fulfillment and contribute positively to the environment and society. The workforce would also be expected to upgrade their skill knowledge and credentials more frequently in order to stay viable and adapt to digitalization and corporate restructuring.

As a consumer, we are likely to prioritize how we spend our earnings, especially given the financial hardships that are likely to follow post-lockdown. During the crisis, we have refamiliarized to the idea of cooking at home, being entertained via online media platforms, and limited our travels. Our spending patterns on dining, leisure travel, large scale gathering is likely to be reduced in the near future. More awareness towards climate change and corporate social responsibility can be seen among common masses, than these topics limited to scientific communities.

conclusion

The pandemic crisis that has perplexed us all with its unexpected arrival, exponential spread and global panic is expected to have economic, political, and social impacts in coming years. Apart from the imminent impact of sudden global shock and knee-jerk halt of world’s status quo, we now face the risks of contraction in international trade, increasing protectionism across nations and decline in morale at social masses. Governments, business and societies that rise up to these challenges and strive towards the positive direction of adapting to changing economic environment, cross country collaborations and continuously upgrade their skill set; will emerge more robust, better prepared for future health and supply chain scare and successful in the long term.

references

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7. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/04/14/weo-april-2020

https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm?SSO=1 & https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm?SSO=1

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52289056 (BBC News - “Coronavirus: US to halt funding to WHO, says Trump”)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52151141 (BBC News -“Coronavirus: India doctors ‘spat at and attacked’”)

https://www.who.int/news-room/events/detail/2020/04/24/default-calendar/global-collaboration-toaccelerate-new-covid-19-tools (WHO - “Global collaboration to accelerate new COVID-19 health technologies”)

https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/04/1062512 (UN -“Landmark collaboration’ to make COVID-19 testing and treatment available to all”)

author Vivek Seth

Vivek Seth is a Singapore citizen, with over 15 years of Compliance & Risk Management experience in Financial Industry. His work experience spreads across Singapore, Dubai and Australia along with business assignments carried out in Hong Kong and Switzerland. He holds an M.B.A. and also the PRM™ professional certification. This article presented here represents author’s personal views and not that of his current/previous employers or any professional bodies he is associated with.