Emission impossible?

Is the UK government’s ambitious plan to switch all car sales to electric cars by 2030 achievable?

Mark Bursa

The uk government’s announcement that it plans to bring forward the end-of-sale date for new petrol and diesel cars by a further five years to 2030 has certainly focused the minds of the car industry. The decision is political – prime minister Boris Johnson wants to make the UK, freshly decoupled from its European partners, the fastest G7 country to decarbonise cars and vans.

But the decision raises more questions than answers, with many in the industry questioning whether the deadlines and targets outlined in the plan are achievable. Will global automakers be able to supply sufficient battery-electric vehicles to replace the 2.2 million or so petrol and diesel cars sold every year in the UK? And at the same time, will they be able to satisfy demand from all other markets, many of which have announced similar plans to switch sales away from the internal combustion engine?

UK sales figures show battery vehicles trebled their market share, albeit in a market down 27%, from 3% to 9% in the first 11 months of 2020. BEV sales are on course to surpass 11,000 cars this year, more than double the 5,000 sold in 2019. Plug-in hybrids are also growing fast, up 76% to 7,700 in the January-November 2020 period. Combined sales of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids across 18 Western European countries have topped 1 million, closing in on double last year’s tally. Progress, but not as dramatic as required.

Read more in the latest issue of Professional Driver Magazine