PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE Alex Chang, MFS, RM
Framing Probabilities, Possibilities, and the D-20
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t has now been another two months since you’ve read PS Magazine. My hope is that our publication and communication strategies are able to provide tips, perspectives, community, and a bridge to each of you through these unprecedented times. You will always have a place in the PSA family and we value and honor the coach and educator in each of you. My last article mentioned the power of ‘shift’ when crisis management requires us to shift and pivot our plans, goals, and feedback. I am writing to you today about the power of ‘framing’ – and by this I mean framing probabilities, possibilities, and data about ourselves, our sport, and our world. You’re probably saying “What the hay, Alex?”. Humor me for a moment while I dive into this rabbit hole. I grew up a certified ‘Nerd of Nerds,’ collecting comic books, playing Dungeons & Dragons (D&D), and escaping to/exploring the mythical realm of heroes, wizards, monsters, dungeons, and of course… dragons. One key tool of the game is the D-20, also known as the 20-sided dice. The D-20 was the foundation for all gameplay and ‘chance/ probability’ because you rolled the dice to determine your outcome, never knowing your fate. It was up to chance, but you could improve your odds through magic, weaponry, armor, and experience. Would your Paladin’s holy sword pierce the scaly hide of the red dragon? How much damage would your magic user’s fireball inflict on the frost giant? Everything was determined by the role of the dice. (For our millennial members, this is at the birth of the computer age, so we did not have video consoles or computer algorithms to replicate combat. So yes, we used dice…). I recently delved back into my old books and it dawned on me how much we don’t see when we role the dice, and this I think is true in life. When we roll, we see the outcome —but we don’t see all the other possibilities we narrowly dodged. “I rolled a 17… it’s a hit!” We don’t see what we avoided: a 16, a 15, a 14, etc. down to a 1 where I would have tripped on my cape and dropped my weapon. You see, on a D-20, the possible outcomes are limited to 1 of 20, but in life I think there are a multi-verse of possibilities. So when I mention framing probabilities, we have to remember that there are multiple possibilities (often worse ones) that we don’t see we avoided. That being said, we as coaches (and as perfectionists by nature), evaluate data by looking for the perfect scenario (e.g. Clean triple-triple, parents who do exactly as we wish, budgets that are overflowing, COVID-19 dries up, etc.). This becomes a personal and wishful skewing of the data
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to fit our expectations, not weighing in all possibilities and probabilities in a realistic model. In D&D-land, we call it a critical hit when you roll a natural 20, the highest roll possible, and you get to double the damage of your attack (and hopefully slay the beast). This should mathematically only happen once every twenty rolls, but we often wish and expect this to happen more frequently than one-in-twenty. We even punish ourselves and blame ourselves when it doesn’t happen more frequently. This brings up my final point: Confirmation Bias. I’m not a statistician, but came across this term and really think it’s beautifully and logically appropriate. The basic idea is "But you can bring the that we look at data points to balance, appreciate support our existing beliefs the good as well as the by exercising a degree of personal bias to confirm what difficult, and find ways we believe. Especially in diffito improve your odds by cult times like today, it’s hard making smart choices to not skew the data, or at the very least interpret its meaning with your skaters. You without throwing in a dash of can do this, we can do bias. It’s so similar to implicit this, and our commubias, but even more alluring nity can get through because we can say ‘I was this together." right,’ even if it doesn’t serve me. It’s an open invitation to anyone’s ‘Self-Saboteur’ to waltz in and prove to ourselves we are blocked, helpless, and doomed to fail. Yikes… My point in bringing this to you is a gentle reminder of mindfulness, as coaches, as humans, and as leaders in your community. Confirmation bias is nearly inevitable, especially if we dump half the data and only look for the perfect ‘20’ right? But you can bring the balance, appreciate the good as well as the difficult, and find ways to improve your odds by making smart choices with your skaters. You can do this, we can do this, and our community can get through this together. Don’t forget to check out the new PSA rankings structure, the new virtual ratings (September Site is full; future sites TBD), the continuing PSA webinars (located under Events), and the all-new Accelerated Coaching Partnerships program.
