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Tuesday, 03 April, 2012
CoMMeNT
China’s B
Symphony of destruction Cash-strapped government eyes over Rs1tn bank loans during Q4FY12 as SBP keeps pumping billions in system g Non productive activities (read running the govt) sucking up banking liquidity
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ISMAIL DILAWAR
ith little or no cash available for the growth-oriented private sector, the resourceconstrained but highly paying federal government would be borrowing over Rs 1 trillion from the risk-averse banks during the fourth and last quarter of current fiscal year. the central bank reported Monday that the government had set Rs 1.085 trillion target for its budgetary borrowings from the scheduled banks during April-June FY12. the just-concluded third quarter, JanuaryMarch, had seen the State Bank auctioning the heavily-weighted government papers to the tune of Rs 777 billion to cater the cash-strapped government’s ever– increasing budgetary needs According to the central bank’s preannounced auction calendar, issued Monday, during last quarter the fundsstarved government would be borrowing Rs 995 billion, Rs 50 billion and Rs 40 billion from the banks, respectively,
through the sale of Government of Pakistan Market treasury Bills (MtBs), Pakistan investment Bonds (PiBs) and ijara Sukuk. the economic observers call it a sort of cyclical debt as the central bank, on one hand, is raising billions of rupees from the banks for the government and injecting mammoth liquidity into the system on the other. First day of the week, Monday, saw the regulator injecting a huge sum of Rs 242.500 billion into the system where, the SBP believes, many of the small banks would fail if it stopped pumping cash on weekly basis. the amount was injected at 11.55 percent rate of return through reverse repo open market operation. Of the total Rs 1.085 trillion targeted amount, Rs 30.668 billion and Rs 11.382 billion would be raised as an additional requirement of the government. During the period under review, the central bank would be conducting seven auctions to be conducted on 4th and 18th of April, 2nd, 16th and 30th of May and 13th and 27th of June, respectively.
On the auction dates the government has targeted to raise Rs 160 billion, Rs 200 billion, Rs 180 billion, Rs 110 billion, Rs 140 billion, Rs 120 billion, and Rs 85 billion, respectively. An additional amount of Rs 30.668 billion includes the total money to be borrowed through t-bills auction. the auctions for selling Rs 50 billion islamic bonds, called ijara Sukuk in Shariah-compliant banking, would be conducted on April 23 and June 20 to raise Rs 25 billion in each auction. “(the) maximum value of the asset under the present issuance program of the ijara Sukuk is Rs 126.21 billion,” said the State Bank. Whereas the Rs 40 billion targeted against the sale of -3, 5-, 10-, and 20-year PiBs would be raised in two auctions on April 25 and May 23. Rs 20 billion is the amount rounded off target. Also, Rs 11.382 would be raised additionally of the total Rs 40 billion. the coupon rates for 3-, 5-, 10- and 20year bonds has been set at 11.25, 11.50, 12.00 and 13.00 percent, respectively. the economic observers are concerned as the cash-strapped governments, both in the center and provinces, are relying almost totally on the banks for catering their ever-burgeoning budgetary requirements. While the banks; advances to the private borrower is depleting their investment in the risk-free government securities would be well above Rs 3 trillion by the end of this financial year, June FY12. the analysts concern is that much of the banking liquidity being sucked up by the cash-strapped government is being used for non-productive purpose: running of the government. this trend, they warn, would leave the private sector sans cash thus dealing fresh blow to the government’s growth targets for FY12.
LCCI’s MFN jibe # 173 Says MFN status to India is a disaster waiting to happen unless NTBs are removed g Claims core issues render trade realisation futile g
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he Lahore Chamber of Commerce and industry Monday made it clear that MFN Status to india would be of little benefit to Pakistan unless and until all Pakistan-specific NtBs are removed and the core issues are addressed. this was stated by the LCCi President irfan Qaiser Sheikh while talking to a panel of experts including former Finance Minister Shahid Javaid Burki,
former foreign Secretary tasnim Noorani and Dr Ayesha Ghous Pasha. LCCi Vice President Saeeda Nazar, former Senior Vice President Yaqoob tahir izhar, former Vice President Aftab Ahmab Vohra, executive Committee Member Ahmad husnain, Vice Chairman PiAF Nadir Kamal Usman and former executive Committee Member Amjid Ali Jawa also spoke on the occasion and gave their point of view on this issue of national importance. irfan Qaiser Sheikh said given the size of the two economies and trade level,
indian firms are likely to gain much more than Pakistani businesses. this is simply about export competitiveness and level of readiness to participate in international markets. this is where india has advantage over Pakistan. the LCCi President said that in the presence of core issues between the two countries and multiple NtBs imposed by india, the desired results from opening up trade cannot be fully realized. this is a very serious challenge for both the countries moving forward. irfan Qaiser Sheikh said there are nu-
merous conditions, Pakistani exporters have to meet in order to get the shipments cleared which include agriculture permits, indian standard of quality, licensing requirement for import of vehicles, textile specific barriers, health and safety regulations and many more. the LCCi President said that complain of rigid application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary in india concerning food exports as well as compliance with labeling, testing and certification. it is believed that most of these restrictions and requirements are Pakistan-specific whereas we give much farer treatment to indian exporters. it appears that for Pakistani exporters, the compliance with export documentation, procedures and standards is made very cumbersome and various complications are fabricated during transit and at clearance stage. Pakistani companies exporting to india have often raised concerns over time consuming and excessively bureaucratic nature of
eiJiNG’S recent choice of avoiding US pressure and stepping away from the iran pipeline notwithstanding, its relationship with Pakistan is unique indeed, primarily because the political equation has been made to revolve around long term development arrangements. those familiar with the six-decade long relationship were neither surprised by islamabad’s silence at the pullout nor by the pleasantness at Boao, where the two sides committed to raising bilateral trade to $15 billion. truth be told, China is a far more valuable resource for Pakistan than the other way around. the Chinese embrace of Pakistan comes not just from the latter’s role long ago as a facilitator in engagement with the west. their’s hasn’t been a culture that celebrates sentiment for some time now. they realise well Pakistan’s geostrategic significance (hence the bridge-chapter), more so now than ever, when the most potent threat of the 21st century will either stem from or be contained by it. Apart from China, the PM’s engagement with delegations from iran and Kazakhstan were particularly instructive. the iran pipeline is definitely on, which means further engagement in energy projects should follow. But the offer of access to short sea routes to Kazakhstan will gain a vital reciprocal foothold in central Asia, which must partner with Pakistan on more than just an economic level to counter the challenges ahead. the menace of terror has already declared both a common enemy, with signs that their theatre of war will spread further across the continent. in sum, while the government’s performance on the home front finds little praise, its position on South Asia seems far sighted and to Pakistan’s benefit. the Chinese factor is by far the most crucial. even as it let discretion be the better part of valor in the iran pipeline specific faceoff with America, it is ever ready to help friends in time of need, no matter how tall the opposition. We must build on our unique relationship with China.
examination, appraisal, assessment and evaluation at indian Custom ports but no attention has been paid to that except promises. irfan Qaiser Sheikh said that it is the need of the hour that indian business community should actively and effectively lobby their government to expeditiously alleviate fears of Pakistani business that many NtBs on the indian side are Pakistan-specific. A comprehensive review exercise of all perceived and real NtBs should be conducted with the private sector of both sides in the driving seat. Likewise both governments have a clear role in harmonizing their respective customs procedures and simplify compliance with safety and quarantine standards. in this regard, both governments need to work together to establish a modern infrastructure of special quarantine centres and testing labs for compliance with safety standards at all border crossing points.