profitepaper pakistantoday 04th may, 2012

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PRO 04-05-2012_Layout 1 5/4/2012 12:14 AM Page 1

Panic! at the Disco

profit.com.pk

Friday, 04 May, 2012

COMMENT

PRESIDENT HAS A SWEET TOOTH

Zardari sugars the pill Natural and governmental calamities do sugar export no harm g President gives his bi-monthly ‘pro-active business involvement to boost economy’ speech g

ISLAMABAD

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APP

resident Asif Ali Zardari thursday said the government was committed to taking the industry onboard to find a solution to their problems. talking to a delegation of Pakistan sugar Mills Association, led by its Chairman Javed A. Kayani at Aiwan-e-sadr, he said only through pro-active involvement of the business community and the

industrialists, the continuity of the policies could be ensured. the President while advising the Government to hold a meeting with PsMA said that the proposal of exporting sugar be sent to eCC for consideration. He said it was a matter of great satisfaction that despite unprecedented natural calamities, the country was in position to not only meet its requirements in sugar commodities but was also poised to export sugar. the President advised Ch. Pervaiz elahi,

senior Minister for defence Production and industry to hold meeting with the PsMA to further deliberate on the proposal and issues, being faced by the industry. the delegation included iskander M Khan, riaz Qadeer Butt and deoomal A. essarani. Ch. Pervaiz elahi, senior Minister for defence Production and industry, Finance Minister dr. Abdul Hafeez sheikh, secretary Finance Wajid rana, secretary industries M. Aziz Bilour and Chairman tCP tahir raza naqvi were also present besides

other senior officials. the issues related to sugar industry were discussed in the meeting. Javed A. Kayani, Chairman PsMA, while briefing the President said at present the sugar production in the country was around 4.7 million tons. He said after meeting the domestic consumption of 4.2 million tons, around 400,000 tons of sugar was available for export. He said that export of sugar would enable them to make payments to the growers in the region of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab and sindh.He also raised the issue of the sales tax on the sugar commodity.

MIND LIKE A STEEL TRAP

MoP to steel PSM against capitulation KArAChI

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STAFF REPORT

inistrY of Production (MoP) is fully working to save Pakistan steel as it is our pride and the most important mega asset of Pakistan.President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister syed Yousuf raza Gilani both are satisfied with the progress of current PsM, Chief executive Officer Major General (r) Mohammad Javed, as his previous achievments are remarkable and now it is fully hoped that he will again create a history of success.Federal Minister of Production Chaudhry Anwer Ali Cheema said these words while chairing in a special meeting with PsM board of directors, here at PidC board room, yesterday. He said, it is our first priority to run PsM successfully, Members of the board are skilled, well experienced professionals and it is their responsibility to provide guidelines and policy to the CeO for running the Mill.He said that CeO has full powers to endorse his orders for the betterment of the

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organization.He added that in the next month board meeting a chairman for the PsM board will be elected to run the board matters smoothly. Federal state Minister for Production Khwaja Mohammad sheeraz also attended the meeting, while newly apppointed CeO, Pakistan steel Major Gen.Mohammad Javed Hi-M (retd), Parliamentary secretary for Production dr. Mehreen razzaq Bhutto, secretary Production Gul Muhammad rind, secretary Privatization Amjad Ali Khan, Additional secretary (development, expansion, Admn) seerat Asghar, former Fed secretary (Labour & Manpower)nayyar Hasnain Haider, eng. daroo Khan Achakzai, engineer Abdul Jabbar Memon, Mirza Aslam Baig, Ps Chief Finance Officer shahid Mohsin sheikh and Pakistan steel Peoples Workers Union CBA shamshad Qureshi as member board of directors were also present. Federal Minister Anwer Ali Cheema said that ministry is following and in contact with finance ministry for the release of remaining 5 billion rupees of approved bailout package from 11 Billion for running PsM matters. CeO, Pakistan

steel Major Gen.Mohammad Javed(r) honored and gave thanks to the Minister and Board of directors for their co-operation, satisfaction and confidence. He said that we will trying to run PsM on self reliance basis as our land bears a big treasure of iron ore and coal which is waiting for utilization. He said the remedy for previous wrong decisions will also be taken so that again they are not repeated. secretary Production Gul Mohammad rind said that the Ministry of Production will fully support and co operate for the betterment of PsM. Parliamentary secretary for Production dr. Mehreen razzaq Bhutto also expressed the appointment of CeO as a shining hope for PsM in coming days. After the meeting a 5 member delegation of Pakistan steel Peoples workers Union –CBA headed by Chairman CBA shamshad Qureshi meets the Federal Minister Anwer Ali Cheema.

3t

cheers for the trade route

He trade route to peace seems to be working out nicely, especially with Pakistan’s largest trade fair on indian soil being such a success. indeed, as many participants noted there, there is finally firm realisation, at least in business circles, that time has come to shed the burden of the past, a needless hatred rooted in a bygone era. For some reason it’s celebrated as the China model, that lasting financial and economic linkages should precede highest level headto-head on core issues at the centre of the confrontation. Chinese or not, it seems ideally suited for Pakistan and india in the present setting. it has been for some time actually, it’s just that there were no takers. it is encouraging that news reports of needless indian conditions regarding truckload and tonnage at border crossings have ceased. surely serious concerns (including ours) reached new delhi in time to keep their powerful cement lobby from souring the initiative even before it gathered steam. Cement is Pakistan’s best bet in the crossborder trade. it is in good demand in india, which Pakistani projection has matched, and has played no small part in bidding up the sector at the local bourse. timely removal of a crucial irritant has kept a potential snowball from developing, which is a good reflection on high-level commitment this time around. We say this because we have seen fruits of painful endeavour go waste in the past, when Gen Musharraf’s diplomacy and outreach prompted little save superficial confidence building measures from across the border. this time the focus is distinctly different. Both sides obviously realise the urgency, hence the beginning with long term, binding economic linkages. it will be important to ensure the process is free of hiccups, especially in the run up to complete drawing down of the negative list by year end. Vigilance will be necessary subsequently also, but of a different nature.

Exogenous shocks and our stock market

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ShAhAB JAfry

300-point plus bull rout while the financial capital is gripped by horror is a strange decoupling of the bourse from vital fundamental indicators. Yet such has been Kse’s stellar post-Jan rise, unimpressed by exogenous shocks that would normally derail financial markets – bomb blasts, plane crashes, PM’s contempt drama, memogate, war on terror, etc. SignalS, Sentiment: “it’s true events like Osama bin Laden’s assassination, suicide attacks and especially a head of state’s conviction can and should really hurt markets. they signal instability, which rules out serious investment opportunities,” says rahat Ali, a dubai based investment banker who oversees Asian markets. “But it’s also true that Pakistan’s benchmark Kse has exhibited surprising resilience over the last two quarters.”

While the (market) impact of bin Laden’s assassination was mute predominantly because of low volumes that marked the market since the ’08 collapse, reaction to otherwise startling news has been somewhat contained. “the market’s absorption rate has increased significantly,” says Hammad Malik, research head at First national equities and part-editor of widely circulated investment advisory newsletter Financial Correspondent. “there is a disconnect between interpretation of event-signals over here and abroad. Here the market has priced in such occasional disturbances as routine behavior,” he adds. “Outside, they are viewed as existential threats to the country.” PreviouS examPleS: the last bull run to run into suicide bombings and civil disturbance came in the boom years of the Musharraf-Aziz setup, when efforts to promote financial markets resulted in irrational exuberance that wrecked the bourse as well as investors. the market

impact of similar shocks was far greater at that time, when it hovered around the 16,000 mark. since the collapse almost four years ago, volumes have been thin, till the trend changed dramatically with the turn of the current calendar year. the sudden rise past the psychologically significant 14,000 barrier has surprised some observers. “it’s a very strong trend, but it’s not nearly as stellar as the euphoria leads pundits to believe,” warns Hamad of Fne. “Prices on offer are still relatively cheap, they have not risen as much as they should have considering the index. the main rally was caused by the petroleum sector, because of its heavy weightage,” he explains, adding that it is not unusual for certain sectors to magnify market increase even as prices do not rise much across the board. overbought?“i wouldn’t say the market is overbought. Cement maybe, but that too just this past rally that jacked up cement scrip prices by rs15 or so,” he says. “there’s still a lot of room though.

For example, back in ’08 when the market was good, dGK went for 130, now it’s at 40.” the price gap is too large to warrant an overbought verdict. the market buys this explanation, and apparently so does the middle class mob that crowds it, operating from remote terminals in their offices, etc. they have learned their lesson well from last time, and are careful in their entries and exits this time. “there’s no reason for me to let events beyond my control affect my thinking about the right way forward. the same is true for the collective market and it seems to understand this,” according to Asad, a high-ranking it executive at a media powerhouse, and a serious daily trader. “this is very encouraging,” he says adding, “it is crucial for the market to remain unaffected. should it nosedive every time there is a matter of serious concern, its fate would not be much brighter than the overall economy’s.” tendencieS towardS

bubble? “not really.” Hammad’s answer seems far more profound than the usual end-is-near chatter beginning to emerge with increasing intensity and frequency. the rise is fast, but it’s a selfcorrecting one. there are frequent retracements, keeping the trajectory in check. “if it rises 300 points one day, and drops 150 the next, the net rise is only 150 isn’t it?” he shrugs just as the market closes on the screen in front of him, and an imminent 150 drop or no, the rise past 300 for the day seemed to please him plenty. the near-to-medium-term direction of the Kse seems a one-way bet, and whether or not the market is on way to swelling to bubble proportions will still take time to become certain. For the moment there is little to worry about. Cement is still bid, fertiliser’s cyclical gain time has come, banking scrips are on the rise, and (again) the market clocked 300-plus despite the Liyari crackdown. exogenous shocks and our market are a world apart.


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