profitepaper pakistantoday 04th November, 2012

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Sunday, 4 November, 2012

BIG FOREIGN, LOCAL BANKS PUT TO SHAME

SBP exposes banks with excess cash Central bank says ECR ‘adversely impacts’ interest rate corridor g UBL, Bank Al-Falah top the list by holding Rs465m and Rs386m daily g Habib Bank, Barclays, MCB, NBP, Habib Metro, Bank Al-Falah, Standard Chartered Bank, Faysal Bank, Allied Bank, First Women Bank, Bank of Punjab, Samba Bank and Bank Al-Habib also reserve billions g Meezan, Dubai Islamic, Standard Chartered and Albaraka Islami are Islamic banks possessing excess money g SBP injected over Rs3tn only in October to avoid liquidity crunch in banking system g

KARACHI

D

ISMAIL DILAWAR

ESPITE repeated warnings from the State Bank, the commercial banks keep putting to risk the country’s interest rate corridor by reserving billions of rupees of cash in excess of the mandatory Cash Reserves Requirement (CRR).

According to State Bank data, the commercial banks cumulatively held Excess Cash Reserves (ECR) of over Rs 68 billion during the week ranging from September 28 and October 04. A break-up shows that the conventional banks possessed Rs 51.383 billion while their counterparts in Shariah-compliant banks held Rs 17.221 billion during week under review.

On average, the banks’ daily reserves were calculated at Rs 9.80 billion, Rs 7.34 billion by conventional and Rs 2.46 billion by the Islamic banks. This holding of surplus billions by the otherwise liquidity-scarce banks makes the analysts wonder that if the banks are able to maintain such big amounts in addition to the compulsory what they are required by the regulator, why the State Bank is injecting billion into the banking system to avoid a purported liquidity crunch.

Some analysts tend to perceive that

the weekly pumping of billions by the central bank is a sort of indirect budgetary lending to the cash-strapped government that borrows the injected sums from the scheduled banks thorough auctioning its risk-free securities, like Treasury Bills, Pakistan Investment Bonds and Ijara Sukuk. The central bank figures reveal that during a short span of one month, October 4 to September 1, the regulator pumped liquidity into the money market to the tune of over Rs 3 trillion in eight different reverse repo open market operations (OMOs).

The State Bank injected Rs 487 billion on Oct 4, Rs 99.5 billion in two OMOs on Oct 8, Rs 603 billion on Oct 11, Rs 527 billion on Oct 18, Rs 146 billion on Oct 22, Rs 641 billion on Oct 29 and Rs 521 billion on November 1. The State Bank, perhaps, itself may not recall when it had last conducted its Mop Up operation. The regulator, however, has been cautiously monitoring and publishing the banks’ holding of ECR to deter the banks, though unsuccessfully.

It was in December last year when the central bank had warned the banks against holding ECR that, according to the regulator, adversely impacts smooth functioning of the interest rate corridor.

The State Bank since December 2011 is publishing the banks’ ECR data on weekly

basis perhaps to shame the later on disturbing the interest rate corridor by “hoarding” the direly needed additional money. As if this was not enough, the regulator on Friday last moved again and notified the banks that it, from now onward, would make public bank-wise data of the ECR. “The SBP expects that dissemination of this data will bring more transparency and efficiency in the domestic money market,” said the State Bank.

The bank-wise data on ECR reveals that all major public and private and local

Global shares, crude oil dip despite stronger US jobs Global stocks and crude oil retreated even after a US employment report for October surpassed expectations, as investors looked beyond next week’s presidential election to the looming “fiscal cliff” NEW YORK AGENCIES

The dollar climbed to a more-than-sixmonth peak against the yen and a threeweek high versus the euro after U.S. employers stepped up hiring and the unemployment rate ticked higher as more workers renewed job hunts, a hopeful sign for the economy.

But other data highlighted a mixed picture. Demand for U.S. factory goods rose in September by the most in over a year, but a gauge of business investment plans showed lackluster momentum in the recovery despite a slight upward revision.

“The (jobs) report itself was good but just not good enough, especially after the pre-rally we had yesterday,” said Todd Schoenberger, managing principal at the BlackBay Group in New York, referring to the 1.1 percent surge in

the broad-based S&P 500 index on Thursday, its best gain since September 13.

The employment data was the last major report card on the U.S. economy before Tuesday’s presidential election. Polls show President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney locked in a dead heat in a race that may hinge on the nation’s feeble jobs market.

“With the election next week and the outcome of that still so uncertain, some modest downward pressure is to be expected for the rest of the day,” Schoenberger said. Much of Thursday’s rally was rooted in the belief that significant East Coast storm damage will force capital spending, rebuilding and help boost employment far more quickly than was thought a week ago, Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co, told clients.

But Wilkinson said the so-called fiscal cliff — when higher tax rates and cuts in government spending are scheduled to kick in early next year if Congress fails to act — has made investors reluctant to buy further into the equity rally.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was down 115.92 points, or 0.88 percent, at 13,116.70. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX was down 9.98 points, or 0.70 percent, at 1,417.61. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was down 25.87 points, or 0.86 per-

cent, at 2,994.19.

In Europe, the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares .FTEU3 closed up 0.5 percent at 1,115.19.

The MSCI all-country equity index of world shares .MIWD00000PUS slipped 0.27 percent to 330.90.

Oil fell as weak European data reinforced a gloomy picture for the demand outlook. Euro zone manufacturing shrank for the 15th month running in October as output and new orders fell, a survey showed. Weak growth, high prices and better vehicle fuel efficiency pushed down fuel consumption in most of Western Europe over the summer, official statistics showed. Also, the auto market in western European maintained a sharp descent toward levels last seen nearly 20 years ago as consumers worried about unemployment and euro zone austerity affected car dealerships in October.

Brent crude for December fell $1.75 to $106.42 a barrel, while U.S. crude for December delivery fell #2.23 to settle at $84.86. The U.S. dollar index .DXY was up 0.65 percent at 80.567, and the euro was down 0.80 percent at $1.2838.

The data were viewed as positive for the economy, but not strong enough to jeopardize the Federal Reserve’s accommodative monetary stance. “Incomes aren’t really growing, and if incomes don’t grow, how can spending grow?” said Wilmer Stith, vice president and portfolio manager of the Wilmington Broad Market Bond Fund in Baltimore. “By no means is the economy out of the woods.”

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note pared losses to trade up 1/32 in price, with its yield at 1.726 percent.

and foreign commercial and Islamic banks hold excess money to the disadvantage of interest rate corridor. The United Bank Limited (UBL) tops the list of the conventional banks by maintaining on average ECR worth Rs 465 million every day. On the Shariah-compliant banking front, the Islamic Bank Branch (IBB) of the Bank AlFalah secured the top slot by reserving Rs 386 million on average per day.

Other conventional banks to follow, according to SBP data, are Habib Bank, Barclays Bank, MCB Bank, National Bank

of Pakistan, Habib Metropolitan Bank, Bank Al-Falah, Standar Chartered Bank, Faysal Bank, Allied Bank, First Women Bank, Bank of Punjab, Samba Bank and Bank Al-Habib. The daily average ECR of these banks during September, respectively, were recorded at Rs 455 million, Rs 383 million, Rs 319 million, Rs 311 million, Rs 254 million, Rs 254 million, Rs 215 million, Rs 170 million, Rs 163 million, Rs 126 million, Rs 116 million, Rs 109 million and Rs 108 million.

The Islamic banks are no exception with Meezan Bank possessing Rs 267 million, Dubai Islamic Bank Rs 264 million, Standard Chartered Bank Rs 146 million and Albaraka Islami having reserved Rs 106 million during the said month. These are the banks with daily average excess balance of over Rs 100 million. The central bank on Friday said it had “now” decided to publish bank-wise data on ECR maintained by the banks “over and above” the minimum required CRR. “Excess cash reserve not only adversely impacts smooth functioning of the interest rate corridor but also has implications on banks’ own liquidity management,” the bank warned. To be disclosed with a lag of one month, the SBP said, the data would help in differentiating between the relative performances of various banks in their money market operations.

Sindh governor mulls improving European fish exports KARACHI APP

Governor of Sindh Dr. Ishrat ul Ebad during his recent visit to United Kingdom had talks with experts from the fishery sector that may pave way for export of shrimps from Pakistan to the members of European Union.

According to a handout issued from Sindh Governor House, Saturday, Dr. Ishrat ul Ebad had detailed meetings with experts and consultants in Belfast to address reservations registered in European Union community about shrimps and fish exported from Pakistan. The Governor of Sindh assured that international standards would be strictly complied for export quality shrimps and importers would be provided no chance to complain about the same. The required standards, he said would be maintained right from the fishing procedure and practices to their dispatch to final destinations. Special care, he said would be ensured in terms of hygiene and quality of the product. On the occasion the Sindh governor and European experts extensively discussed modes that may help Pakistan acquire the required export quality standards.

The experts referred to promotion of aqua culture technique in Pakistan and expressed their keenness to visit Pakistan.

Traders, industrialists welcome liberalised visa regime with India KARACHI STAFF REPORT

Traders and industrialists in this commercial hub of the country have lauded Islamabad’s decision to sign an agreement on liberalized visa regime with India. They believe the move would relax curbs on issuing travel documents to traders, elderly people, tourists, pilgrims, members of the civil society and children living across the Line of Control. In a joint statement Patron In-Chief Korangi Association of Trade and Industry (KATI) S M Muneer, Chairman Mohammad Zubair Chhaya, President All Karachi Industrial Alliance, Mian Zahid Hussain and Vice Chairmen, Niaz Ahmed and Najmul Arfeen termed the development a good omen towards bilateral relations between the two countries. They said the 38-year-old visa pact had been replaced with the new pact that says visa has to be issued in a period of not exceeding 45 days of application which is a good move. The industrialists said under the new system, one could visit five places instead of three at present and those above 65 and children below 12 years of age and eminent businessmen were exempted from police reporting. The traders welcomed the federal cabinet’s decision to approve three agreements regarding customs and certification issues, which were also signed by officials of the commerce ministries of both countries in September. S M Muneer, who is also of president India-Pakistan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (IPCCI), said due to IPCCI’s efforts and with the help of both countries’ apex trade bodies, many milestones for strengthening bilateral trade relations had been achieved.

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IMF calls for renewed fiscal transparency effort ISLAMABAD

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ONLINE

ISCAL transparency is a critical element of effective fiscal policymaking and risk management, but the recent crisis has highlighted the gaps in governments and understanding of their financial position.

In the wake of the crisis, a new International Monetary Fund(IMF)Paper calls for improvements in fiscal reporting standards, faster adoption of those standards by member countries, and improvements in the way the IMF and others monitor fiscal transparency.

It said the past 15 years have seen improvements in both fiscal reporting standards and practices. However, the recent crisis has underscored that, even among advanced economies, governments’ understanding of their fiscal position—and the risks to that position—remains inadequate.

“Now is the right time to review our approach to improving fiscal transparency,” said Carlo Cottarelli, head the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department. “The crisis has reminded us that comprehensive, reliable, and timely information about the public finances is the foundation of effective fiscal management. It has also highlighted the gaps in both fiscal reporting standards and practices. Improvements in fiscal transparency should therefore be a central element of any government’s fiscal policy response to the crisis.”

According to the IMF, despite the advances made to date, current understanding of governments’ underlying fiscal position and the risks to that position remains inadequate. This was demonstrated by the emergence of previously unreported fiscal deficits and debts in the wake of the crisis in Greece and Portugal.

It could also be seen in the United States where financial problems in quasi-public enterprises, like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, remained largely out of sight until government bailouts were needed. Elsewhere, in countries with large domestic banking sectors, such as Iceland, Ireland, and the United Kingdom, the biggest shock to the public finances came from the crystallization of large, mainly implicit, government liabilities to the financial sector.

It added that these shortcomings in fiscal transparency were due to a combination of gaps and inconsistencies in existing fiscal reporting standards, delays and discrepancies in countries’ adherence to those standards, and a lack of effective multilateral monitoring of compliance with those standards.

Business 02 PSMA TO GIVE EXCHEQUER SOME SUGAR Envisages 5m tonne sugar production in 2013 ISLAMABAD ONLINE

The Pakistan Sugar Mills Association (PSMA) has envisaged a production of about 5 million metric tons(MT) sugar during forthcoming crushing season against domestic requirement of approximately 4.2 million tons.

A representative of Pakistan Sugar Mills Association told “Online” on Saturday that a total quantity of about 5 million MT sugar is expected to be produced during the season 2012-13, which is likely to surpass all previous production figure. He said with anticipated carryover of 0.4 million tons sugar and meeting the domestic requirement of approximately 4.2 million tons.

He said a total quantity of 4,670,379 million tons sugar was produced during the crushing season 2011-12 at the beginning of the crushing season 2011-12 the left over stocks from 2010-11 were 0.9 million tons.

The average annual domestic consumption of sugar is around 4.2 million tons and about 1.5 million tons sugar was calculated as surplus.

The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the cabinet had allowed export of a total quantity of 300,000 tons sugar out of which 100,000 metric tons in January whereas 200,000 tons in May 2012 and placed export quota restriction of

5,000 per sugar mill. Reportedly 95 per cent of the quantity allowed has been allocated to the sugar mills. However, only 133,471 tons sugar has been actually exported them.

On the request of Prime Minister of Tajikistan, export of 30,000 tons sugar has been allowed to Tajikistan on government to government bases from Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) reserves at preferential price, however, the export has not materialized yet. The representative said a total quantity of 3,080,586 tons sugar has been sold by sugar mills to the open market till September 25th, 2012.

“TCP had procured 687,000 tons sugar during 2011-12 from local sugar mills out of which a quantity of 358,119 tons sugar has been sold to Utility Stores Corporation of Pakistan (USC) and 150 tons to Pakistan Navy till 27TH September, 2012,”a TCP official said, adding that in addition to that 30,000 sugar would be exported to Tajikistan whereas a quantity of 298,731 ton sugar is presently available with TCP which is expected to last up to February next year for surplus to USC 50,000 tons sugar per month.

NTC incurs Rs 35m loss ISLAMABAD: National Telecommunication Corporation (NTC) administration caused Rs 35 million loss to the national exchequer in acquiring unduly and unjustified land in Gwadar. According to the available report of Fact finding committee on coastal fiber project 2012 it is learnt that NTC administration purchased land in Gwadar for its regional office and paid Rs3.6 million for the land however land has not been transferred to the NTC. Fact finding report revealed that NTC administration purchased land at two different places with the same site while huge variations in price were observed regarding the purchase of land per sq ft/ per sq yard. Report revealed that 1482 sq yard land purchased in Gawadar Rs 3,622,000, 8694 sq ft land purchased in Jiwani with a cost of Rs 130,410 and another piece of 1 acre land was purchased in Pasni with Rs 304,920. 4500 sq feet land purchased by the NTC administration 31, 500, 1022 sq yard land purchased in Hub over a cost of Rs 421,127 and 600 sq yard land purchased at Rs 452,484 which shows huge variations. Report also mentioned that area of land purchased through PSDP funding for the project is totally irrational regarding scope of project and is waste of public money. The status of ownership of land in Gawadar is also a question mark on management of the project. Fact finding committee showed extreme displeasure over status of owner ship of land in Gawadar and unjustified land acquisitions. ONLINE

Wall Street ends storm-shortened week with a selloff NEW YORK AGENCIES

Energy stocks were a drag on the market after Chevron Corp, the second-largest U.S. oil company, posted a profit that missed expectations. The stock fell 2.9 percent to $108.26 and was one of the biggest drags on the Dow industrials.

The dollar’s strength also hurt energy and materials shares. Eventually, all 10 S&P 500 sectors succumbed to selling pressure to end lower.

For the week, the Dow shed 0.1 percent, but the S&P 500 gained 0.2 percent. The Nasdaq ended the week down 0.2 percent. The trading week was shortened by a historic two-day market closure on Monday and Tuesday, spurred by superstorm Sandy’s devastating sweep through the U.S. Northeast.

“We started off on strength, with nonfarm payrolls coming in above expectations. Then we drifted lower during the day. It’s hard to determine what direction we are in - with the two days off, it’s really been a strange week,” said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co, in Lake Oswego, Oregon. From New York City’s Staten Island to the popular beach towns of the Jersey Shore, rescuers and officials continued on Friday to face widespread destruction wrought by Sandy, as well as a rising death toll and frustration over delayed relief and fuel shortages.

Government data showed employers added 171,000 people to their payrolls last month, topping expectations. The jobless rate ticked up to 7.9 percent as more workers restarted job searches, a positive signal for the economy. The jobs report is the last one before the U.S. presidential election on

Tuesday, and it could improve President Barack Obama’s odds at the ballot box, though polls continue to indicate a close race between Obama and Republican candidate Mitt Romney.

Chevron also was the second-largest weight on the S&P 500. The S&P energy index, down 1.7 percent, was one of the worst performers among the 10 major S&P 500 sector indexes. Strength in the dollar was also cited for a decline in crude prices, which hurt energy shares as well.

The S&P materials index fell 2 percent, pulled lower by a slide of 8.4 percent in Newmont Mining

Corp to $48.74 after its profits missed expectations.

According to Thomson Reuters data through Friday, of the 378 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings so far, 61.9 percent have topped expectations, in line with the 62 percent quarterly average since 1994.

The revenue picture is much bleaker, with only 38.2 percent of companies having posted revenue above expectations, well below the 62 percent quarterly average since 2002 and the 55 percent average over the past four quarters.

“Generally, we’ve seen the market trend lower,

primarily related to disappointing revenue reports coming out of the third-quarter earnings stream,” Dickson said.

The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 139.46 points, or 1.05 percent, to 13,093.16. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 13.39 points, or 0.94 percent, to 1,414.20. The Nasdaq Composite Index declined 37.93 points, or 1.26 percent, to close at 2,982.13. The S&P 500 index is down 3.5 percent from a recent peak on September 14, and is below its 50-day moving average, amid investor caution ahead of the election and tough government budget negotiations at the end of the year.

Starbucks Corp jumped 9.1 percent to $50.84 after raising its profit forecast for the fiscal year as sales in the United States, its top market, beat expectations, providing the company optimism that has eluded much of the U.S. restaurant industry in recent months. Restoration Hardware shares soared 29.6 percent to $31.10 in their market debut after the upscale furniture retailer’s initial public offering was priced at the high end of the expected range. The shares hit an intraday high at $33.15 - up 38.1 percent from the IPO price of $24.

Verizon said it expected fourth-quarter results to be hurt significantly due to superstorm Sandy, but could not estimate the effect at this time. The stock slid 1.4 percent to$44.52.

Volume was modest, with about 6.35 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE MKT and Nasdaq, slightly below the daily average of 6.5 billion for the year so far.

Declining stocks outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a ratio of 7 to 3, while on the Nasdaq, about three stocks fell for every one that rose.

Sunday, 4 November, 2012