profitepaper pakistantoday 06th october, 2012

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Saturday, 6 October, 2012

SBP’s quite the slasher!

Slashes discount rate further by 50bps to 10pc KARACHI ISMAIL DILAWAR

A

S expected the central bank on Friday slashed its discount rate by 50 basis points to 10 percent from 10.5 percent for the next couple of months. The regulator, however, urged the government to take “comprehensive” fiscal reforms, keep its budgetary borings from it in check and avoid the negative consequences of excessive borrowings from the scheduled banks. The central bank also proposed an effective overhaul of the governance structure of the energy sector that, it believes, is important for the revival of private credit, investment and sustainable medium to long term economic growth. To take effect from the 8th of this month, the rate-cut was decided by the Central Board of Directors of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) at its meeting held here at SBP with SBP Governor Yaseen Anwar in chair.

A continued deletion in the inflation rate that contracted in September to single digit, 8.8 percent happens to be the major attributable factor in the 50bps rate-cut. “A consistent deceleration in inflation since May 2012, to 8.8 percent in September 2012, is more than earlier estimates. Thus, despite an expected uptick in H2-FY13, the overall inflation outlook has improved. In fact, the likelihood of meeting the 9.5 percent infla-

tion target for FY13 has increased,” the SBP said. At the macro level, it said, it seems that the effect on inflation of falling private investment demand was becoming more pronounced than the influence of high fiscal borrowings. “The disaggregate CPI inflation data also show that this could be a beginning of a broad based trend. The number of commodities with double digit year-on-year inflation has slightly come down in the last few months after a secular increase over the last three years; first in the food group and now in the non food group as well.” The decline in 20 percent trimmed core inflation measure, to 10.4 percent in September, is slower than the fall in CPI inflation.

“This indicates persistence of inflation expectations due to inertial effect of high inflation experienced in the recent past, overall rising trend in fiscal borrowings from the SBP, and depreciation of exchange rate,” it said. The regulator said the recent fall in inflation together with a retirement of Rs412 billion of fiscal borrowings from SBP during Q1-FY13 could bring down core inflation further by having a beneficial

impact on inflation expectations. This would depend, however, on the fiscal authority’s resolve to maintain this trend in the coming quarters, the bank warned. While discussing the previous rate cut announced in August 2012, the Monetary Policy said that a declining inflation together with weak growth in credit to private businesses was the basic context in which SBP reduced its policy rate by 150 bps in August

2012.

“The resumption of monetary easing, in this environment, was deemed necessary to influence the behavior of borrowers in the private sector and scheduled banks to step up efforts to improve their intermediary role,” the SBP said adding a host of factors needs to be considered for this to be sufficiently effective.

“Prominent among these are considerable improvement in the availability of energy and reduction in fiscal borrowing needs from

the banking system. The former is expected to facilitate an increase in the demand for credit and the latter would help in improving the supply of credit to the private sector.”

Further support to SBP’s initiative can come from realization of expected foreign financial inflows that would alleviate the balance of payment concerns and help in easing the considerable fiscal pressure on domestic borrowings, the bank added. “The effectiveness of SBP’s current monetary policy stance continues to weigh upon improvement in the fiscal position, better availability of energy, and an increase in foreign financial inflows,” it said. The central bank pointed out that weak foreign financial inflows are the main challenge faced by the balance of payment position.

“The external current account balance, on the other hand, is small and shrinking. In fact, during the first two months of FY13, it posted a surplus of $884 million. This is primarily due to robust growth in remittances, $2.5 billion received in July and August 2012, and receipt of $1.12 billion Coalition Support Funds in August 2012,” it said. According to SBP, the constrained by energy shortages and weak global economy, the export growth remained subdued. The import growth has also slowed down and most of the

Weekly inflation falls ISLAMABAD APP

The Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the week ended on October 4, for the lowest income group up to Rs.8,000, registered decrease of 0.53 per cent as compared to the previous week.

The SPI for the week under review in the above mentioned group was recorded at 181.34 points against 182.31 points registered in the previous week, according to provisional figures of Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (FBS). The weekly SPI has been computed with base 2007-2008=100, covering 17 urban centers and 53 essential items for all income groups and combined. The SPI for the combined group decreased by 0.73 per cent as it went down from 188.33 points in the previous week to 186.96 points in the week under review.

As compared to the corresponding week of last year, the SPI for the combined group in the week under review witnessed increase of 6.41 percent.

As compared to the last week, the SPI for the income groups from Rs.8001- 12,000, 12,001-18,000, 18001-35,000 and above Rs.35,000 decreased by 0.56 percent, 0.61 percent, 0.71 and 0.88

percent respectively. During the week under review average prices of 20 items registered decrease, while that of 06 items increase with the remaining 27 items' prices unchanged.

The items which recorded decrease in their average prices during the week under review included onions, chicken live (farm), petrol, bananas, tomatoes, lawn, potatoes, kerosene, gur, moong pulse (washed), vegetable ghee (loose), masoor pulse (washed), mustard oil, red chillies (powder), wheat flour (bag), sugar, gram pulse (washed), rice (irri6), diesel and mash pulse (washed).

The items which registered increase in their prices included egg hen (farm), LPG( 11 kg cylender), bread (plain), rice basmati (broken), long cloth and garlic.

The items with no change in their average prices during the week under review included wheat, beef, mutton, milk (fresh), curd, milk (powdered), cooking oil (tin), vegetable ghee (tin), salt (powdered), tea (packet), cooked beef, cooked dal, tea (prepared), cigarettes, shirting, georgette, sandal (gents), chappal (gents), sandal (ladies), electric charges, gas charges (upto 100m3), firewood, energy savor, washing soap, match box, telephone local call and bath soap.

incremental increase over the corresponding period of last year is because of price impact, it observed. The retirement of government borrowings to SBP was made possible by substantial borrowings from the scheduled banks; Rs437 billion during 1 July–21 September FY13, it said adding that consequently, the outstanding amount of liquidity injections by the SBP has increased to Rs611.5 billion by the end of Q1-FY13.

“While this may not be an optimal situation, it is necessary in current circumstances. This is because some base money creation is essential to avoid an economic depression. The creation of money through the other source, accumulation in the Net Foreign Assets (NFA) of the banking system, is difficult due to weak foreign financial inflows. Similarly, the SBP (Amendment) Act (2012) requires at least zero net flow of fiscal borrowings from SBP during a year,” the bank observed. To continue to keep borrowings from SBP under check and avoid the negative consequences of excessive borrowings from the scheduled banks, comprehensive fiscal reforms should not be delayed further. “These include, but are not limited to, broadening of the tax base, reduction in wasteful subsidies and better coordination between federal and provincial governments in terms of keeping the consolidated fiscal position under control,” said the SBP.

SECP’s stellar September Registers 244 firms of Rs3.74bn authorised capital in the month g 185 companies upped their total authorised capital by Rs4.86bn g

KARACHI STAFF REPORT

The Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) registered 244 companies during September. The authorized capital and paid-up capital of these companies is Rs3.74 billion and Rs390 million respectively.

During the month, applications/returns for increase in authorized capital for 185 companies were accepted, with the total authorized capital increment of Rs4.86 billion. Seventy-nine companies filed applications/returns for increase in paid-up capital with the total increment amounting to Rs1.51 billion. The new incorporations include 218 private companies, followed by 14 single-member companies and 4 each as public unlisted companies, non-profit associations and foreign companies. The foreign companies belong to South Korea, Oman, China and Singapore. Foreign investment by nationals from Afghanistan, China, Iran, Peru, Romania, Spain, UK and US has been witnessed in 10 new local companies. These companies are from construction, food and beverages, fuel and energy, IT, trading and communication sectors. With 29 companies the services sector has the highest number of new incorporations, followed by trading with 28, tourism with 18, construction with 16, communications and I.T. with 12 each, and food and beverages sector with 11 companies. The Lahore Company Registration Office registered 85 companies, followed by Karachi and Islamabad CROs, registering 72 and 53 companies respectively. The Peshawar, Multan and Faisalabad CROs registered 15, 10 and 7 companies respectively, while Quetta and Sukkur CROs registered 1 company each.

Foreign buyers continue to have B2B meetings

IT’S YOUR FAULT! NO, IT’S YOURS! Pak-US officials hold each other responsible for delay in Bilateral Investment Treaty ISLAMABAD ONLINE

The United States and Pakistan are holding each other responsible for the delay in much awaited Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) that has been considered a breakthrough in the Pak-US bilateral relations, sources revealed.

The representative of the US side claims that the BIT draft has been finalized for the signing. The American officials were of the view that they have finalized the modalities of the agreement and Pakistani side working on the technicalities of the BIT pact.

While on the other side Pakistani authorities are claiming that ball is in the Americans court and the BIT could be sign

when and where the US authorities say.

The treaty between both countries was earlier expected to be signed during this month but now it has been delayed for unspecific period. A high level official of Board of Investment (BOI) told this agency that international agreements were not taken place over night as it was time taking process.

“Pakistan does not seem that the Bilateral Investment Treaty between both countries could be sealed during current financial year 2012-13,”the official said, adding that there were many financial and defence related issues remained unresolved during recently held talks between both countries.

The US officials are confident that the treaty would be signed in the current fiscal.

A 6-member US team held talks with

Board of Investment officials on 27-28th August to discuss unresolved issues of considerable importance to conclude the BIT. Pak-US BIT started in 2004 and continued till 2006 but many issues remained unresolved. The biggest stumbling block was arbitration rules in case of any dispute.

After a five-year deadlock, the Board of Investment took the initiative to restart the negotiation process last year. It is pertinent to mention here that Saleem H.Mandviwalla last month expressed the hope that BIT will lead to Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the two countries, resulting in market access and increase in exports to the US markets and more investment from the US as both the countries had already signed draft of the treaty earlier this year.

KARACHI STAFF REPORT

During the last two days of 7th Expo Pakistan, many MoUs have been signed while B to B meetings also continued on Friday. According to TDAP officials, Chief Executive TDAP Tahir Raza Naqvi has held separate meetings with various trade groups, delegations especially from, South Africa, Egypt, Australia, Russia, Afghanistan and others. Besides the business to business meetings and interactions were separately being organized by members of FPCCI and KCCI. The chief executive said that all the possible facilities were provided to the importers/foreign buyers and local businessmen to avail the business opportunities at the yearly held Expo Pakistan, while taking to media. The businessmen were freely having interactions with each other while various foreigners group were also holding meetings with the CE TDAP to discuss issues related to technical things, matters related to policy level and facilitation. According to Naqvi, the final data, importers orders and total outcome of the event would be shared with media by end of the mega event. However he expressed his satisfaction over the two days’ event specially arranged for the foreign visitors. He said the expo center would be open for public from Saturday to Sunday. The foreign buyers, who met the concerned Pakistani companies’ representatives during the exhibitions have informed him that majority of them had good deals with the country’s exporters and also have placed orders worth millions of dollars.

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So, what’s the point of fifty fifty?

LCCI rejects 50-50 basis point cut in mark-up g

LAHORE ONLINE

The Lahore Chamber of Commerce & Industry (LCCI) on Friday termed 50-basis point cut in markup as meager and halfhearted attempt to rejuvenate economy as the industry wants of the State Bank to bring it to single digit. In a statement issued here, the LCCI President Farooq Iftikhar, Senior Vice President Irfan Iqbal Sheikh and Vice President Mian Abuzar Shad said that the SBP Governor should have taken some bold step and curtailed it to at least 150 basis points.

The decrease will hardly improve the local investment scenario. For government, it means decrease in debt-servicing costs as it is the biggest borrower.

The slash in interest rate in August last trimmed the government debt-servicing by over Rs 40 billion. But for the private sector it is not very encouraging.

The availability of cheaper liquidity to the business community is need of the hour as the SBP tight monetary mantra in the name of financial discipline caused irreparable dent to the private sector growth and brought in an unusual surge in unemployment. "Neither any industrial expansion took place nor any investor put money in any new business venture. And one of the reasons was unavailability of cheaper money to the private sector." LCCI President, meanwhile, called for measures to overcome energy crisis, security challenges and political instability to make interest rate cut meaningful and result oriented. If these factors are not taken into account, they will continue to create problems for the economy in general and for the private sector in particular. He also urged the Governor State Bank of Pakistan to review all other economy related banking policies and facilitate the private sector that is engine of the growth. In the developed economies, the markup rate is in single digit and is maintained at all costs.

You can have two weeks, but no more!

SBP extends reserve maintenance period to two weeks for banks g Banks to maintain average CRR at 5% of total demand liabilities g Daily minimum requirement decreased to 3% g Overnight Reverse Repo rate cut to 10% g TDL made criteria for determining required SLR KARACHI

STAFF REPORT

The industrialists in this commercial capital of the country on Friday expressed grave concern on the production-curtailing low gas pressure in the city’s industrial areas by the Sui Southern Gas Company (SSGC). In a joint meeting with MD SSGC Azim Iqbal Siddiqui on Friday, the chairmen of all industrial associations of Karachi said production in their all industrial units, particularly the SITE, was badly being affected due to anomalous gas pressure. SITE

OPEN COMPANY Nestle Pakistan Ltd. 4800.00 Rafhan Maize Prod. 3800.00 Wyeth Pak Limited 860.00 Bata (Pak) Limited 1100.00 Shezan Inter.

347.28

HIGH 5040.00 3900.00 889.99 1154.99 364.64

LOW 5000.00 3900.00 889.99 1071.00 362.00

CLOSE CHANGE 5040.00 240.00 3900.00 100.00 889.99 29.99 1124.00 24.00 364.64 17.36

TURNOVER 180 20 50 3,300 1,400

314.00 174.50 118.00 310.00 148.00

309.90 165.31 118.00 310.00 143.70

309.97 167.15 118.00 310.00 144.14

-8.03 -5.90 -5.02 -5.00 -4.05

2,700 327,400 500 100 41,500

T

HE central bank Friday implemented certain measures through making various changes in its regulatory framework.

The steps are aimed at strengthening the liquidity management and other regulatory frameworks, the bank said. Firstly, the State Bank made certain changes in maintenance of the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) to facilitate the banks in context of their liquidity management. The central bank said the reserve maintenance period for the banks would now be of two weeks, starting from Friday and ending on Thursday of subsequent week. The Time and Demand Liabilities (TDL) as of close of business on Friday, first day of reserve maintenance period, would be taken into account for determination of required CRR. If Friday is a holiday then TDL as of close of business on preceding working day would be taken into account.

All banks, including Islamic Banks/branches, have to maintain CRR at an average of 5.0% of total demand liabilities, including time deposits with tenor of less than 1 year, during the reserve maintenance period. “However, daily minimum requirement is being decreased to 3.0%,” the SBP said.

The Time liabilities including time deposits with tenor of 1 year and above would continue to be exempt from cash reserves. The DFIs would continue to maintain CRR at 1.0% of their time and demand liabilities during the reserve maintenance period. The above instructions would be effective from October 12. The TDL to be used for CRR maintenance period starting from October 12 and ending on October 25 would be as of October 12.

Through another circular, the State Bank revised downward its Overnight Reverse Repo (ceiling) rate from 10.50 percent to 10 percent per annum. The circular said the SBP overnight repo facility would be available at 7 percent. This would

63.29 3.52 6.55 6.57 6.03

60.00 3.18 5.65 6.25 5.80

61.40 3.49 5.70 6.46 5.92

0.88 0.34 -0.79 0.11 0.14

19,333,500 17,865,000 12,755,000 11,888,000 6,882,000

being the 38% revenue earning estate of Pakistan will be forced down to closure, effecting more than 500,000 labours and unemployment of labour may further lead to deteriorate the law and order situation of Karachi. The elected representatives said in a press statement that the industrial production is stopped after gas pressure is dropped abruptly, several captive power generating units also stopped operating because of the non sufficient supply of gas to the industrial areas of Karachi. The abrupt low gas pressure may cause heavy threats to human lives coupled with financial loss.

Major Losers Exide (PAK) ICI Pakistan XD Ismail Industr Island TextileSPOT Sitara Chemical

318.00 173.05 123.02 315.00 148.19

Volume Leaders

ISMAIL DILAWAR

Fear closure due to low gas pressure KARACHI

Major Gainers

g

Nishat Mills Limited 60.52 Pace (Pak) Ltd. 3.15 K.E.S.C. 6.49 Fauji Cement 6.35 Lafarge Pakistan 5.78

Interbank Rates serve as the ‘floor’ for the interest rate corridor as announced by the above referenced circular. Hence, the floor and ceiling levels for the interest rate corridor are 7 percent and 10 percent, respectively. (i.e. width of 300bps). To dissuade frequent accesses to the SBP overnight reverse repo and repo facilities, following amendments have been introduced: In case an eligible institution accesses either of the above facilities more than 7 times during a given quarter, a spread of plus/minus 50bps will be applied over & above the applicable SBP Overnight Reverse Repo and Repo rates, respectively, for the remainder of the same quarter. For the current quarter, the seven instances as mentioned above would be recorded from October 8. A third circular issued by the central bank said for the purpose of maintaining Statutory Liquidity Requirements (SLR) during the fortnight, starting from Friday and ending Thursday of the subsequent week, the Time and Demand Liabilities (TDL) as of close of business on Friday (first day of the fortnight) would be taken into account for determination of the required SLR. It said if Friday is a holiday then TDL as of close of business on preceding working day would be taken into account. The TDL to be used for SLR maintenance during fortnight starting from October 12 and ending on October 25 would be as of October 12, said the bank. The above instructions would be effective from October 12.

Industries apprehensive about gas trouble g

Business 02

‘No gas for industrial, captive power units on Sunday’ KARACHI: Reduction in supply of natural gas from the producers due to technical and operational reasons has persistently resulted in creating a low pressure situation which has adversely affected the overall supply in SSGC’s franchise areas of Sindh and Balochistan. Keeping in view the gravity of the situation, SSGC is regularly practicing one day gas shutdown every Sunday for all industrial and captive power customers in Sindh. STAFF REPORT

US Dollar UK Pound Japanese Yen Euro

95.4593 154.4437 1.2167 124.0876

Dollar East US Dollar Euro Great Britain Pound Japanese Yen Canadian Dollar Hong Kong Dollar UAE Dirham Saudi Riyal Australian Dollar

BUY

SELL

95.00 123.50 153.19 1.1992 96.62 12.10 25.83 25.28 96.24

95.50 124.46 154.35 1.2082 97.86 12.25 26.00 25.45 98.43

GSP Plus should be top priority: PRGMEA KARACHI STAFF REPORT

Sajid Saleem Minhas has been elected unopposed as central chairman PRGMEA for the year 2012-13, while Mir Muhammad Farooq Meyer and Shaikh Shafiq Rafiq were elected unopposed as the chairmen, north and south zones, respectively, in a general body meeting held on October 3.

Minhas on assuming charge of the office said only with a long term vision, can the garment industry progress in Pakistan.

He said getting GSP Plus status for Pakistan would be his top most priority in the days ahead and he is willing to extend PRGMEA’s full cooperation to the government in order to attain duty-free status.

“We would like to thank the European Union granting Pakistan the trade concessions package and also to our government for relentlessly pursuing the matter with the EU. We would like to extend our full support and cooperation to the government and would stress better coordination with the government on all important matters”, he stressed.

Earlier, the participants of the Annual General Meeting offered their condolences to all the workers of the recent fire incidents in Karachi and Lahore and decided that PRGMEA will play its due role in training and placement of workers affected by this tragic incident.

The body also passed a unanimous resolution to review their fire and safety policies and to implement safety measure and compliances more thoroughly.

CORPORATE CORNER Pakistan should benefit from Korea’s experience

Pakistan, a Korean food festival will be held in November and a music festival will be held later. The Korean diplomat said that Korea was the second largest exporter of the world and Pakistan could benefit from its experience. He added that many Korean corporations were working in Pakistan and his country helping to improve Pakistan’s economy.

He concluded by saying Korea would always stand by the Pakistani people in their difficult times.

PSO, PNSC sign long-term transportation agreement KARACHI: Korea has great regard for Pakistan and keenly looks forward to further expansion of relations. This was said by the Consul General of the Republic of Korea, Mr In Ki Lee last evening at a reception hosted by him to celebrate the National Day of Korea. Mr Lee said that Pakistan was well-known to the Korean people as the home of the Indus civilization and a long history of culture spread over thousands of years as well as being the birth place of Buddhism. He said to further introduce Korea to

spectively, have solidified their partnership by signing a contract of affreightment (COA) on Friday at the PNSC building. The accord was signed between Mr. Naeem Yahya Mir, CEO & MD-PSO and Vice Admiral Saleem Ahmed Meenai, Chairman-PNSC. Also present at the occasion were PSO’s Mr. Naved Alam Zubairi, SGM Projects; Dr. Nazir A. Zaidi, SGM-International Marketing; along with PNSC’s Executive Directors Brig. Rashid Siddiqi, Capt.

Aftabuddin Siddiqi, Imtiaz Cassum Agboatwala, Cdre. Syed Muhammad Obaidullah and Zaheer Babar Qureshi. The agreement which is valid for one year and renewable on an annual basis will enable PSO to transport upto 3 million metric tonnes of Furnace Oil via PNSC vessels from Middle East to Pakistan’s shores. A successful test shipment of 71,500 MTs of Furnace Oil has already been brought into Pakistan through a PNSC vessel.

UK know-how can help Pakistan agriculture, energy thrive KARACHI: Pakistan State Oil (PSO) and Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC), the nation’s flagship oil marketing and shipping companies re-

KARACHI: Trade relations between Pakistan and Great Britain continue to progress with specific trade deals in the pipeline. British Deputy High Commissioner and Director for Trade and Invest-

ment Pakistan Mr Francis Campbell said this at a networking reception hosted by him for the 30member UK delegation participating in the 7th Expo Pakistan Exhibition being held in Karachi. He added that Expo Pakistan facilitated the objective of increasing bilateral trade between the UK and Pakistan. He advised Pakistani entrepreneurs to come forward and tap the expertise of UK companies in agriculture, energy and healthcare as they possessed the latest knowledge and technology in these sectors. Mr Campbell said he felt Pakistan presented numerous opportunities for investments as it was an emerging market with a rapidly growing middle class, besides being an export base.

Saturday, 6 October, 2012