PRO 11-11-2012_Layout 1 11/11/2012 12:14 AM Page 1
Sunday, 11 November, 2012
‘We dragged the economy out of a veritable quagmire’ ISLAMABAD
F
APP
EDERAL Minister for Finance, Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh said on Friday notwithstanding eight big inherited challenges, the government’s prudent polices brought about macroeconomic stability, reduced inflation to single digit, maintained fiscal discipline, created jobs, doubled revenues and bolstered the vulnerable segment of the society. The government focused on sound monetary policy to bring down inflation rate and ensured fiscal discipline by taking austerity measures, he said while talking in a talk show on Pakistan Television. The inflation rate has been reduced from the peak 25 percent in 2008 to 9 percent now, which he described as a great achievement of the government. On the other hand, the government implemented fiscal discipline which is evident from the fact that as compared to 1011 percent increase in inflation rate, the federal government expenditures have
gone up by just 6 percent while that of provinces increased by 21 percent. These expenditures included defence, payback loans and civil government expenditures, which he said remained stagnant at Rs 200 billion. Giving details about the performance of revenue collection system, the federal minister said that the tax collection has been more than doubled from Rs 1000 billion to Rs 2300 billion during the past four and a half years. The Federal Minister for Finance, Dr Hafeez Shaikh said the tax collection ratio has increased by 21 percent as Rs 350 billion additional revenues was collected in the financial year 201112. The government is following the strategy of self-dependence and in this regard more and more new tax payers are being brought under tax net. He said there were some sectors which were enjoying zero rating facility but have now been brought under tax. D r H a f e e z Shaikh said the people who are not paying their due taxes
and non-filers will be brought under tax net, whereas the people who are already paying their taxes are being facilitated by reducing tax burden on them. “In the current fiscal year’s budget, we have done away with many taxes and tax slabs have also been reduced to benefit the tax payers”, he remarked. He said that this year, the focus would be on expanding income tax base while the government during the past year had focused on sales tax and had brought about many changes in the overall taxation system. On the other hand, the borrowings of the government have also reduced as compared to its income, he said and added the country’s income was Rs 10,000 billion four years ago, which is now Rs 20,000 billion. “If borrowings have increased, the income has also increased,” he said and added that the government cannot borrow more than 56-60 percent of the GDP. The government did not forget the poorest of the poor as three million vulnerable families were provided social safety net under Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) for which the country is being appreciated the world over, he said adding the programme would help empower women. The federal minister said that the overall growth rate decreased by 2 percent due to floods which caused damage amounting to 10 billion dollars. However, he maintained that the economic expansion has been reducing all across the globe. Citing example of India’s growth which is forecast to remain under 5%, with China 6%, Europe and the United Kingdom in negative while the United States 2%. He said that the government has regularized 3,000 contract government employees and reinstated 30,000 employees. He said that the government has launched about 650 projects worth Rs 3000 billion during the past four years which created jobs and would help in the over all development of the country. Talking about the challenges of food security, he said that Pakistan has been far better
than many countries inthis sector. Going back to the past, the Finance Minister said, when the present government came into power, the economic growth momentum was slowed down while the GDP was at 2% in 2008 with inflation touching the highest 25%.The country’s stock market was almost closed while there was big burden on current account and fiscal discipline and the foreign exchanges were reduced as low as $ 5 billion. The value of rupee was also depreciated from Rs 60 to Rs 80 against dollar while there was no increase in electricity generation capacity and above all the law and order situation was deteriorated. It was this situation when the government had to take hard decisions and go to International Monetary Fund for loan under a standby agreement. Dr Hafeez Shaikh said that human resource development, export capabilities and private sector growth were imperative for growth and above all, the rule of law was most important to ensure growth and stability. Dr Shaikh said that the government had laid down strong foundations for the prosperous future of Pakistan and “new Pakistan is emerging.” Institutions are independent in their domain as the Bank of Pakistan, Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan, Competition of Pakistan, Courts and other institutions including media are independent which is a positive development towards bright future. He said that democracy is back on tract, Constitution has been restored, parliament is strengthened, provinces were made autonomous and a good political culture has been created where institutions work in their respective domain. The finance minister termed the 18th Amendment and National Finance Commission award as two historic decisions of the present government, which would help build a prosperous Pakistan. The federal minister for Finance said that although the responsibilities of provinces have increased as the federal government has provided Rs 5000 billion to them to manage their affairs.
Afghanistan beckons India’s business leaders to invest Afghanistan is “ripe and ready” for Indian investments in mining and other sectors, President Hamid Karzai told business leaders in Mumbai on Saturday at the start of a trip to woo investors for his war-ravaged country
MUMBAI AGENCIES
“We’d like to welcome you with a red carpet, but you need to arrive at the red carpet,” he told delegates at an Indian industry event in the financial capital. “What I’d like to emphasize in particular is that Indian businesses need not be shy when thinking about Afghanistan. The Chinese businesses were there long before you came, five or six years before.” India has invested billions of dollars in Afghanistan since the Taliban regime’s ouster in 2001 and has urged private firms to invest there, though many have misgivings about the security climate after 2014, when most foreign troops will leave. China is also looking to tap into Afghanistan’s mineral reserves. A consortium led by state-firm Steel Authority of India last year won the rights to develop a huge iron ore deposit in central Afghanistan and a nearby 6 million metric ton steel plant at a cost of around $11 billion. China won a huge copper concession not far from Kabul, as well as oil blocks in the north. However, both Asian giants have been held back in Afghanistan by security concerns as well as poor infrastructure in the landlocked, mountainous country. India also has to tread carefully in Afghanistan because of the suspicions of arch-rival Pakistan, which sees New Delhi’s expanding role in its neighbor as a move to encircle it. Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma told the meeting with Karzai that New Delhi would look at engaging with Kabul to develop infrastructure such as highways, power projects, Chahbahar port and energy security.
Euro at two-month low versus dollar on European growth concerns The euro dropped to a two-month low against the US dollar and could extend losses further as fears mount that the euro zone’s debt crisis and deteriorating economic conditions could drag down global economic growth NEW YORK AGENCIES
The U.S. dollar and the yen advanced, while the Australian dollar weakened, as investors shed growth-linked currencies in favor of safe havens. Growth in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, is likely to slow in the fourth quarter and the first three months of 2013, the Economy Ministry said. Industrial production in France, Europe’s second-largest economy, shrank in October and the country’s central bank said it expected to slip into recession at the end of 2012. “It’s the core Europe now, not just the peripheral Europe, that may be sliding into a recession,” said Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX Strategy at BK Asset Management in New York. “If that happens, then China will lose its export market and the whole global economy will begin to contract.” “The market is really afraid that Europe could drag the whole global economy down.” The euro fell as low as $1.2688 on Reuters data, the weakest since Septem-
ber 7, and was last down 0.27 percent at $1.2710. It also hit a one-month low of 100.38 yen and was last down 0.32 percent at 100.94 yen. Traders said the euro could target the 100-day moving average around $1.2636 and the September 7 low of $1.2625. “There has been a rather poisonous cocktail that is dragging the euro down with weak European numbers today and renewed fears of the euro zone crisis with Greece back on the agenda,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, head of FX strategy at Danske markets. “We would not be surprised if we saw the euro drop to the $1.25 level within the next three to four weeks.” Investors were also nervous ahead of a Greek vote on Sunday on the country’s 2013 budget, the next big hurdle towards unlocking access to urgently needed international aid after Wednesday’s tight vote in favor of an austerity package worth 13.5 billion euros. However, euro zone finance ministers were unlikely to sign off on the next tranche of aid for Greece at a meeting on
Monday, according to a senior EU official. Uncertainty over whether Spain will apply for financial aid also cast a shadow over the euro. Such a move would allow the European Central Bank to buy its bonds and lift the euro. Spain has so far resisted asking for aid. The prospect of
ECB support has driven its borrowing costs down and it has met its 2012 bond issuance target. “We are looking at a game of chicken between Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy and the bond markets for looking at a bailout,” said John Hardy, FX strategist at Saxo Bank. DOLLAR STRENGTH: As the euro wilted, the dollar’s index against a basket of currencies .DXY rose 0.30 percent to 81.037, having earlier risen to 81.087, a two-month high. Worries over a looming “fiscal cliff” for the United States, which could trigger tax rises and spending cuts if unresolved, was likely to prompt investors to buy the safe-haven dollar. But for now, Europe remains a bigger worry, some analysts said. “I think everybody understands and appreciates that if there won’t be any kind of a compromise, there
will be some sort of a delay,” BK Asset Management’s Schlossberg said, referring to the U.S. fiscal cliff. U.S. President Barack Obama, fresh from his re-election victory over Republican candidate Mitt Romney, called on the U.S. Congress to meet with him next week to work out a compromise budget plan to avoid the “fiscal cliff.” Obama insisted any plan would require a tax increase for the very rich while John Boehner, the Republican Speaker of the House of Representatives repeated his party’s commitment not to raise anyone’s tax rates as part of a deal to address the fiscal crisis. The dollar fell to a three-week low of 79.06 yen, before recovering to 79.42 yen, little changed on the day. Data showing U.S. consumer sentiment rising to its highest level in more than five years boosted stocks and Treasury yields, helping the dollar rebound against the yen. The Australian dollar lost 0.11 percent to $1.0388. The Swedish crown weakened against the euro and the dollar as industrial output saw its largest fall for more than three years. Analysts said this raised expectations of a rate cut in December.
PRO 11-11-2012_Layout 1 11/11/2012 12:14 AM Page 2
Business 02 Wall Street to Washington: Time to compromise on fiscal cliff Investors are looking for a compromise to keep the US economy from sailing over the fiscal cliff. It’s just not clear that the politicians in Washington are ready to deliver one
NEW YORK
W
AGENCIES
ith $600 billion in tax increases and automatic spending cuts due to take effect in January, investors say they would welcome an agreement that delays most changes until Congress can hammer out a long-term deficit reduction deal in early 2013. “At the very least, I would like to see some kind of conciliatory rhetoric on both sides of the aisle to give investors assurance that a grand deal is coming,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank. Without that, things could get ugly in markets. U.S. stocks accelerated a recent losing streak in the days following this week’s election, in which voters returned President Barack Obama to the White House but left Republicans in command of the House of Representatives and Democrats controlling the Senate. That same combination dragged out long negotiations over raising the debt ceiling in August 2011. In President Obama’s first public statement since the election on Friday, he reiterated his demand to raise taxes on high earners. Earlier in the day, Republican House Speaker John Boehner restated his opposition to such a move. “What that means is that fiscal cliff negotiations are picking up exactly where they left off,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies & Co. “Fasten your seat belt, it will be a bumpy end of the year in Washington.” A majority of economists polled by Reuters said consumer and business confidence would wilt and the economy suffer if talks to head off the budget crisis collapse. The Congressional Budget Office has warned that sailing over the cliff would trigger “a significant recession” and the loss of about 2 million jobs. NO RETREAT, NO SURRENDER: Worries about the danger the fiscal crisis poses for the U.S. economy put global stocks on track for their worst week since June. The main sticking point is taxes: Obama wants to raise rates on households earning more than $250,000
while Republicans want to focus on spending cuts, saying tax hikes would hurt growth. On Friday, it did not seem either side was ready to give in. Obama said he was “open to compromise” but said a majority of voters agreed with having the wealthiest Americans pay more. Boehner restated his opposition to raising taxes on the rich, saying it would depress hiring and growth. In 2011, a similarly divided government’s failure to agree on deficit reduction set up the fiscal cliff showdown the economy now faces. It also provoked Standard & Poor’s to strip the United States of its coveted AAA credit rating and pushed the CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street’s gauge of investor anxiety, to levels associated with panic. As Congress has punted on the hard decisions, the numbers have hardly changed: Federal red ink is expected to be more than $1 trillion in 2012 for the fourth straight year. James Dailey, portfolio manager at TEAM Asset Strategy Fund in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, worries that investors who were complacent about the risks before the election may rush for the exit if it seems the economy is going to fall over the cliff. REASON TO HOPE: The issue is of such concern to investors because the U.S. economy has outperformed other developed economies and has shown signs of improving further. Recent U.S. economic data, including a survey showing consumer confidence hit a five-year high this month, has been encouraging. “There’s a lot at stake, and there’s a lot of momentum that could be lost if lawmakers don’t get their act together,” said Joe Manimbo, analyst at Western Union Business Solutions. Some are hopeful a deal can still be reached. The CBO said this week that letting income tax rates rise for households earning more than $250,000 - a staple of Obama’s re-election campaign - would have little impact on the economy. Not all investors disagree, as some interviewed in recent weeks said they would be willing to pay more taxes if it helped balance the country’s budget. Some, like Vassili Serebriakov, a currency strategist at BNP Paribas, also said a deal could prove easier to reach now that Obama is no longer running for re-election.
Information Technology would solve unemployment: ICCI ISLAMABAD APP
The Islamabad Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ICCI) here Saturday stressed the need for equipping the new generation with modern education and technology to ensure sustainable economic stability in the country. President ICCI while talking to a delegation of Pakistan Computer Association (PCA) led by its President, Munawar Iqbal said that Information Technology (IT) was one of the areas that can offer enormous opportunities for creating countless jobs, thus government should give attention to promote and capitalize this potential. Bakhtawari said that by tapping full potential of IT and Software products, Pakistan could also grab a substantial share in the international IT market and enhance its exports as well. He said USA, Canada, Middle East, Malaysia, UK and other countries greatly depend on IT as its usage could enhance the performance of almost every sector of economy by improving business processes, cutting costs and increasing productivity. ICCI President said that that there was dire need to improve the export of software
products, adding that the neighbouring country India was exporting software products worth of $69.1 billion while Pakistan’s export of software products stood less than $2 billion. He said that modern education requires computers but poor students could not afford to buy a computer and advised the banks to give soft loans to needy students to ensure good quality of education. Bakhtawari said that over the last two decades IT sector has employed over half a million youngsters in different capacities ranging from software developers, hardware engineers, Call Centre operators and cable handlers etc. He added that it has still great potential to assimilate another half a million youngsters immediately with serious efforts of the government policymakers. He stressed upon the government to take measures for enhancing educational enrollment and particularly IT training capacity of the citizens to promote IT culture and improve the competitiveness of Pakistani software products and exports. Arshad Mehmood, General Secretary PCA, Abdullah Malik, President and Javaid Iqbal, General Secretary of Pakistan Computer Association Islamabad Chapter were also present on the occasion.
Chinese minister warns of grim trade situation BEIJING: Chinese Minister of Commerce Chen Deming on Saturday warned of lingering pressure on the country’s foreign trade from weak global demand, rising domestic costs and growing trade protectionism. “The trade situation will be relatively grim in the next few months and there will be many difficulties next year,” Chen told reporters at a group interview on the sideline of the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, which opened Thursday. China’s exports rose 11.6 percent from one year earlier in October, exceeding market expectation for a rise of 9 percent and stronger than the 9.9-percent increase in September, according to latest figures from the General Administration of Customs. Imports climbed 2.4 percent year on year last month, unchanged from the growth in September. Despite the recovering export growth, China’s total foreign trade in the first 10 months expanded only 6.3 percent from the same period last year. It will be an arduous task to achieve the annual trade growth target of 10 percent but authorities will continue to work for that end, Chen said. He cited lack of fundamental improvements in global demand, rising production costs of Chinese labor-intensive industries and stronger protectionism sentiment as the main factors dragging down exports. Meanwhile, China’s import growth remains tepid mainly because of lower commodity prices in the global market, Chen said. APP
US stocks, oil rebound on strong consumer data US stocks and oil prices gained on a rise in US consumer sentiment to a more than five-year high, outweighing gloom that the ‘fiscal cliff’ in the United States and Europe’s economic woes may lead to a world recession NEW YORK AGENCIES
Stocks later trimmed gains after President Barack Obama said any deal with Congress to avert a fiscal crisis must come with higher taxes on the wealthiest Americans. U.S. Treasury bonds cut losses to trade almost flat on Obama’s remarks, in which the newly re-elected president invited congressional leaders to the White House next week to start negotiating. The so-called fiscal cliff, aimed at cutting the federal budget deficit, could take an estimated $600 billion out of the economy in automatic spending cuts and tax hikes, severely hindering economic growth. “Clearly taxes are going up and that is something the market doesn’t like. There is concern the economy continues to weaken, and there is not much left in the tank in terms of making corporate profitability better,” said Stephen Massocca, managing director at Wedbush Morgan in San Francisco. The surprisingly strong sentiment
survey showed American consumers felt more optimistic about employment prospects and the economic outlook, according to a Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan index, easing the gloom from Europe. The MSCI world equity index .MIWD00000PUS has lost more than 2 percent since Monday and looked set to close on Friday with a weekly decline that would be the steepest since June. The index was little changed at 323.37. In late trading, the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was up 12.65 points, or 0.10 percent, at 12,823.97. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX was up 4.39 points, or 0.32 percent, at 1,381.90. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 14.63 points, or 0.50 percent, at 2,909.99. European shares provisionally ended flat, paring losses on the U.S. data, which included a government report that wholesale inventories rose in September by the most in nine months. Inventories are a key element in the government’s measure of economic growth. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 index .FTEU3 of top European shares closed
down 0.05 percent at 1,097.18 after trading higher briefly before the market’s close. Falling industrial output in France, Italy and Sweden and a warning from a German ministry that Europe’s largest economy was expected to slow further rattled investors. Also weighing on investors was news that euro zone finance ministers are unlikely to release a new tranche of loans to Greece on Monday because there is no agreement on how to make its debt sustainable. “It’s the core Europe now, not just the peripheral Europe, that may be sliding into a recession,” said Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX
Strategy at BK Asset Management in New York. “If that happens, then China will lose its export market and the whole global economy will begin to contract. “The market is very afraid that Europe could drag the whole global economy down.” Oil pushed higher in choppy
trading, lifted by the improved U.S. consumer sentiment and Chinese data indicating a strengthening economy. U.S. crude futures gained 98 cents to settle at $86.07 a barrel, while Brent futures settled $2.15 higher at $109.40 a barrel. The euro dropped to a two-month low against the U.S. dollar and could extend losses as fears mount that the euro zone’s debt crisis and deteriorating economic conditions could drag on global economic growth. The euro was down 0.23 percent at $1.2715 and was seen vulnerable to further losses. The dollar index .DXY rose 0.3 percent to 81.014. Gold hit a three-week high of $1,738.66 an ounce before pulling back slightly. Spot gold prices rose 97 cents to $1,730.90. Prices of safe-haven U.S. Treasuries slipped as stock gains sparked by improved consumer sentiment whetted investors’ appetite for riskier assets. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10year note fell 1/32 in price to yield 1.6148 percent.
Sunday, 11 November, 2012