profitepaper pakistantoday 14th may, 2012

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PRO 14-05-2012_Layout 1 5/14/2012 12:04 AM Page 1

Pressures intensify on European leaders Page 02

profit.com.pk

Monday, 14 May, 2012

TAXING TALES

Hoping against hope Agri tax is the only solution for economy’s survival: Kamal

KaraChI

A

NNI

GrICULTUre has to be imposed in the forthcoming budget for survival of country’s economy; this was stated by Senator Mustafa Kamal. Addressing a dinner reception hosted by President All Karachi Industrial Alliance, Mian Zahid Hussain and former Vice President, FPCCI, Khalid Tawab to honour him and newly elected Senators, Nasreen Jalil and Dr Farogh Nasim at a local hotel on Saturday, Kamal said that if government kitty remains empty and did not have

money to buy event buy fuel for running power generating plants it must enlarge tax net and that could be possible through imposition of income tax on agriculture sector. “We have to enlarge our tax net and levying agriculture tax is inevitable”, Kamal said. He said that without empowering local governments no good governance is possible in Pakistan. While agreeing with the speakers about theft in power sector to the tune of billions of rupees every year he said that empower your local government councilor to collect bills and give him incentive for the job. He said that in order to overcome energy crisis we

should go for alternate energy resources such solar and wind energy. He cited the example of Bangladesh which has successfully overcome its energy shortage through solar energy especially in rural areas. He advised the businessmen that though it’s a difficult time but they should not leave the country. “Do not move to Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Dubai or anywhere else and let’s put our own house in order”, Kamala Advised the business community. He hoped that this difficult would be over and businessmen should stay home to revamp economy. The President, India Pakistan Chamber of Commerce of Commerce and Industry, S M

Muneer made it clear that there is no way out except imposition of agri-tax in the forthcoming budget as government has alternative source of revenue. He said that he repeatedly advised the present government to sit together with the stakeholders and find out solutions many problems being faced by the country and the economy is facing worst ever crisis in the history of Pakistan. He said that industries are closing at a fast pace and he can provide a long list of those factories which have been shut down already. He warmed that country would not be able reach even at the level of $23 billion due to the pathetic condition and looming cri-

sis of power and gas. He said that in such a scenario the government has even stopped the refunds of exporters to further add to their woes. He condemned the acts of violence in the educational institutions and meaningless operation by the Sindh Police in Lyari which yielded no results yet the massive resources and precious lives of police and Lyari people were lost. Mian Zahid Hussain hoped that the rate of sales tax may be reduced in the forthcoming budget and in that way the FBr would be able to enlarge tax base. He said that economy is in shambles and the government would have to take at least one wise step to levy agriculture tax n the next budget. He said that at least there should be some good steps in the federal budget 2012-13. He said that country is in bad shape right now due to energy crisis despite that fact that there is no shortage of electricity in Pakistan and we have more generation capacity than demand. He said that the only problem is bad governance. Senator Dr Farogh Nasim said that there should be friendly tax regime in the country in order to revive ailing economy. He urged upon all the races residing in Karachi to own this city and do not live here like foreigners. “Bringing in peace and harmony in Karachi is the key of political and economic stability in Pakistan”, Nasim said. He advised the chambers of commerce and industry to teach the feudal lords and ask them not to oppose agriculture tax in the National Assembly where they are in majority. Senator Gul Muhammad Lot said that despite the fact he belongs to ruling party but still he would support levy of agriculture tax in the next budget. Former Chairman, Korangi Association of Trade and Industry, Masood Naqi appealed the young senators to raise voice for the business community in the house. Khalid Tawab, Senator Abdul Haseeb Khan and Sardar Yasin Malik also spoke on the occasion.

Gazprom backing out of Iran-Pakistan pipeline?

W

Shahab Jafry

e’re well into May, well past the April 30 deadline for russian energy giant Gazprom’s final yes or no on the Iran-Pakistan pipeline, rightly causing serious concern in Islamabad. Pakistan’s financing problems have already caused serious delay, constraining its ability to complete its part of the pipeline before the agreed Dec ’14 deadline. According to sovereign guarantees, Pakistan is liable to pay $1m per day in case of overshooting the scheduled completion date. And even though the most recent official response has been the typical “will be completed on time” (Ijaz Chaudhry), experts are beginning to seriously question Islamabad’s ability to deliver, especially as American pressure systematically removes all prudent avenues of securing finances. GAZPROM GAMBIT: Sources close to the project speak of a dichotomy in the government’s position. “One the one hand it (govt) is 100 per cent committed to the project, and confident it will complete construction according to the agreed timeline,” said a consultant with ILF, the German company responsible for the project, on condition of anonymity. “One the other, it has neither requisite technology nor finances to achieve such an end.” Speculation about Islamabad’s finances is made worse by the government’s freeze on payments to ILF, and the organisation’s Germany based par-

ent body’s decision to suspend resources to its Pakistan chapter till cash flow resumes. Others see the russian silence as a logical, lengthy analysis of an evolving situation that requires extremely prudent risk management considering the size and scale of required investments and guarantees. A senior project consultant, asking not to be named since he’s not allowed public comment, told Pakistan Today that expecting an immediate answer from the russians was foolish to begin with. “Seriously, the ICBC pullout was quite a shock and embarrassment for the government that staked the pipeline as a crucial vote winner in the elections. The feeling here has been that it overplayed the Moscow card since the beginning,” he said. Indeed, Islamabad’s newfound likeness for Moscow, especially foreign minister Hina rabbani’s spirited outreach, indicates something concrete is being worked on. But a definitive answer cannot be realistically expected before President Putin visits Pakistan later in the year. For now, the russians will worry about the build-up to Pakistan’s general election, and how different parties posture with regard to American and Saudi incentives of breaking away from anything even remotely Iranian. “Only and only if the russians are confident the present dispensation will continue, or whichever replaces it will stay committed to the project, will they pledge the monies,” the consultant said. DEADLINES AND DELIVERABLES: Interestingly, even though that

complicates deadlines and deliverables, whether or not ILF-Pak’s maintaining operations indicates behind-the-scenes hope remains to be seen. “russia’s backing away will seriously limit Pakistan’s options,” according to Salman Shah, former finance minister and part of Gen Musharraf’s economic team that negotiated prices with the Iranians. “If the russians back out, Pakistan will not have access to technology like compressors that are primarily USmade. And even if the question of raising indigenous finances is settled somehow, the government does not have the political will to antagonise the Americans at this point.” Dr Shah also stresses that the proj-

ect, in its present format, is simply unviable. “They will have to renegotiate prices even if construction gets going. This government has agreed to much higher prices than we negotiated. The Iranians will have to be more realistic and offer us an affordable deal.” TAPI LIKELIHOOD: American pressure to break from the deal stems from its wider sanctioning of forex inflows into Iran – citing concern regarding Tehran’s uranium enrichment drive – and advocates the alternate tapi project. Pakistan remains weary because since its inception in the early ‘90s, tapi has been considered unfeasible, owing to 475kms of proposed pipeline through hostile Afghan territory. Strangely the resulting logjam, with Pakistan unable to

leverage either option, may bode ill for energy projection, but does not render the project completely useless, at least not just yet. “There was never any real likelihood of the Iran pipeline coming through,” according to Syed Sayem Ali, senior economist (MeNA & Pak) with Standard Chartered Bank in Karachi. “They’re just using it as a bargaining chip with the Americas as discussions regarding nato supplies and drone attacks near completion”. Sayem’s take will be tested shortly, as negotiations are indeed almost concluded. If ILF’s funding suddenly dries and bankruptcy prevents further operations, StanChart’s monthly economy review will indeed merit greater appreciation. “This doesn’t even suit the russians. Tapi should interest them more, it’s in their natural area of influence. And the Chinese have a natural interest in assisting the Iran pipeline. Yet neither are happening, an indication of how complicated this particular problem has become,” Sayem adds. ENDGAME: It would seem that even the best case scenario of the russians agreeing, that too on our terms (still contentious), would now not see Pakistan reaching the finish line in time. The Iranians have all but built their part of the pipe, while here work has not even begun. “It’s a non-starter,” says Sayem. “Why do you think even financial and technical feasibilities have not been sanctioned?” jafry.shahab@pakistantoday.com.pk


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