profitepaper pakistantoday 23th september, 2012

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Sunday, 23 September, 2012

Like any other day at the office…

ISLAMABAD

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N order to move beyond the crisis in the eurozone and restore confidence in the global recovery, policymakers should implement agreed decisions that will help anchor medium-term expectations about economic policy.

It was stated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Managing Director, Christine Lagarde in an interview.

“It’s a question of really trying to get beyond the crisis in the eurozone, asserting a medium-term plan for countries like the United States and Japan, and making sure that some of the issues that actually created the crisis five years ago are really dealt with, not just half dealt with. And I’m particularly thinking about the financial sector,” she said, speaking ahead of a speech at the Peter-

Merkel, Hollande hold anniversary talks with euro on agenda

son in Washington D.C. on September 24 that will preview the agenda for the upcoming annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank.

In early October, about 10,000 policymakers, business leaders, academics, civil society representatives, and journalists will gather in Tokyo to discuss the outlook for the world economy, and how to address issues ranging from the eurozone crisis, to high unemployment, rising food prices, and better regulation of the financial sector. The Meetings will be held at a time of continued uncertainty for the world economy, and after further action in September by the European Central Bank, the U.S. Federal Reserve, and the Bank of Japan to restore confidence and stimulate growth and job creation.

Lagarde discussed the challenges facing not just Europe but also the United States, emerging markets, and low-income countries. She also provided

SAN FRANCISCO/LONDON

AFP

AGENCIES

Apple Inc fans queued around city blocks worldwide on Friday to get their hands on the new iPhone 5, pointing to a strong holiday season for the consumer device maker despite grumblings about the mapping app in the new smartphone.

The iPhone 5 —

thinner, lighter and with a 4-inch screen —went on sale in stores across the United States, Europe, Asia and Australia, with mobile carriers reporting record demand that looked likely to stretch Apple’s supply capacity.

“The line for the iPhone 5 was 70 percent greater than the line for the iPhone 4S despite Apple taking two (times) as many online pre-orders,” said Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster. He expects Apple to sell 8 million of the new smartphones over the weekend.

T h e long lines of excited buyers prompted optimism on Wall Street.

Deutsche Bank raised its target on Apple stock to $850 from $775, saying “demand indicators are tracking very strongly.”

The iPhone is Apple’s highest-

Late cut WTO cuts 2012 global trade growth forecast to 2.5% SINGAPORE AGENCIES

Apple iPhone 5 fever rages despite grumbling over maps

LUDWIGSBURG The leaders of France and Germany meet Saturday to mark a seminal 1962 speech by Charles de Gaulle, with the euro crisis and a proposed EADS-BAE merger also on the agenda. German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s spokesman said the meeting in the southwestern city of Ludwigsburg, where De Gaulle addressed German youth in a key gesture of post-war reconciliation, was to be largely ceremonial. But a few hot topics will nevertheless figure on the menu. “The issue of EADS and BAE will certainly be addressed at the working lunch with President (Francois) Hollande,” the spokesman, Steffen Seibert, told reporters Friday, referring to the mooted tie-up. “There will of course be no decisions this Saturday and you should not go into the press conference expecting any.” The same applied to the issue of tighter checks on the European banking sector, a focus of eurozone crisis-fighting at the moment, Seibert said. Governments have been cautious since the announcement last week that the British defence group BAE and European aerospace behemoth EADS are negotiating a merger.

an update on the IMF’s efforts to implement an imp o r t a n t governance reform that will give more say to fast-growing emerging markets in Asia and elsewhere.

The meetings will kick off with the IMF’s regular update of its World Economic Outlook on October 9, followed by more than 300 other events, including press briefings, seminars, and bilateral country meetings.

IMF vies to solve global crisis

margin product and accounts for half of the company’s annual revenue.

Apple shares were up 0.5 percent to $702 in afternoon trading in New York. JPMorgan estimates the phone could provide a $3.2 billion boost to the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter - a boost almost equal to the whole economy of Fiji. Apple’s rival and component supplier, Samsung Electronics Co, tried to spoil the party, saying it plans to add the iPhone 5 to its existing patent lawsuits against Apple.

World trade will grow by a mere 2.5 percent this year, dragged down by Europe to less than half of the previous 20-year average, the World Trade Organization (WTO) said on Friday. The WTO cut its estimate from a 2012 growth forecast of 3.7 percent it made in April and also lowered its forecast for 2013 to 4.5 percent growth from 5.6 percent. “I see the risk more on the downside than the upside,” WTO Director General Pascal Lamy said at a news conference in Singapore. “What could be surprising is that you have a volume of trade that is lower than world (economic) growth.” The WTO figures are based on world economic growth of 2.1 percent in 2012 and 2.4 percent 2013, which it said was a consensus estimate of economic forecasts. “The main reason for the growth slowdown is of course Europe,” said Lamy, who will step down next year as head of the 157-member group that has so far failed to agree on major reforms of global trade rules. “We also know U.S. growth is lower than expected, (and) Japan is not in great shape.” The WTO now expects 1.5 percent growth in exports from developed economies this year, instead of the previous forecast of 2 percent.

Those from developing countries are seen posting 3.5 percent growth, down from 5.6 percent previously.

It sees developed nations more than doubling their export growth to 3.3 percent next year and developing countries exporting 5.7 percent more.

Consul General of the republic of Turkey, Murat M Onart, hosted a reception to meet the Ambassador M Babur Hizlan, and Mrs Hizlan, Turkish Airlines Country Manager Mr Huseyin Cepni, with officials of Turkish Airline & Consulate.

Oil rises for second day as supply concerns mount Oil rose for a second straight session in light activity as supply concerns and economic optimism fuelled a rebound from a 7 percent slide earlier in the week NEW YORK AGENCIES

Brent crude topped $111 a barrel but posted a 4.5 percent drop on the week due to a three-day rout that sent it plunging from $116 to $108. Oil dropped from Monday to Wednesday on rising U.S. inventories and Saudi efforts to tame prices.

The decline followed weeks of concern about the impact of higher oil and fuel costs on the struggling U.S. economy, which had prompted expectations the White House could tap emergency reserves to cool off prices. Oil scraped lows not seen since early August on Thursday, before turning positive in a move that could be a sign the market is establishing a new range as traders digest a third round of U.S.

quantitative easing, unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, and delays in North Sea oil shipments. “I’m not really sure we’ve seen a turnaround yet. Oftentimes when the market sees a lot of liquidation pressure it rebounds when that dissipates,” said Gene McGillian, analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut.

“Going forward, I think the market has established a bit of a new trading range from $90 to $100 (a barrel for U.S. crude) and it’s trying to find a value here and settle down.” Oil found some support from optimism over a move by Spain toward reform measures in anticipation of a bailout package. Equities markets rose. .N November Brent futures settled up $1.39 at $111.42 a barrel, before trading up to $111.70 in post-settlement activity.

Brent hit a low of around $107 on Thursday, its weakest since August 3.

On Friday, it edged back above its 50day moving average around $111.18, a technical indicator watched by traders.

Brent outpaced U.S. futures, sending the premium of the international benchmark - which is more sensitive to North Sea disruptions - to U.S. oil up 90 cents to near $18.50 a barrel. U.S. futures ended down 6.2 percent for the week. On Friday, November U.S. crude climbed 47 cents to settle at $92.89 a barrel, off highs of $93.84.

The October contract for U.S. crude expired on Thursday at $91.87 a barrel, having tested the 100-day moving average of $90.73. Trading was light, with U.S. crude volumes on the New York Mercantile Exchange nearly 30 percent below the 30-day

moving average and Brent trade more than 20 percent below that average. Comments from a Gulf source that OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia wanted lower oil prices and was willing to supply more oil to the market set a bearish tone for much of the week.

The comments helped deflate expectations that a third round of stimulus announced by the U.S. Federal Reserve last week would send investors into oil and other riskier asset classes. High prices and the economic downturn have helped drive down U.S. fuel demand in recent years, and a report released on Friday by industry group the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. oil consumption hit the lowest level in 15 years for any August. Hedge funds and other large investors have, however, been increasing bets on rising prices since June.

NORTH SEA, LIBYA: Ongoing export delays of North Sea Forties oil, the most important of the four grades that form the Brent crude basket, stirred concerns about availabilities.

Two more cargoes of North Sea Forties crude loading in October were delayed due to maintenance at the 200,000-barrelsper-day Buzzard field, the largest connected to the Forties pipeline. The field was shut on September 5 for 28 days of work, but traders now say that maintenance could be extended by three to five days. In addition, the market was watching unrest in OPEC member Libya, Africa’s third-biggest producer, that could further delay already-slow efforts to return expatriate oil workers to the country after last year’s revolution.

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Wall Street ends flat despite Spain hope, S&P off for week NEW YORK

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AGENCIES

PPLE Inc (AAPL.O), the world’s most valuable public company in terms of market capitalization, jumped to an all-time high of $705.07 as customers lined up to buy the iPhone 5. Apple’s stock ended up 0.2 percent at $700.10.

News from Spain helped lift stocks after the debt-laden country said it was considering freezing pensions and speeding up a planned rise in the retirement age as it raced to cut spending and meet conditions of an expected international sovereign aid package. The moves, taken with the European Central Bank’s efforts to spur growth in the euro zone and the Fed’s recent announcement of a third round of quantitative easing, continued to underpin gains.

“The market is predominantly looking forward to the Federal Reserve and the QE infinity that the Fed promised, and the globally coordinated easing cycle,” said Steve Wood, chief market strategist at Russell Investments in New York. This week, though, the market’s action has been muted, with the S&P 500 barely moving 0.6 percent in either direction daily.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI slipped 17.46 points, or 0.13 percent, to close at 13,579.47. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX dipped just 0.11 of a point, or 0.01 percent, to finish at 1,460.15. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC rose 4.00 points, or 0.13 percent, to close at 3,179.96. Earlier, the S&P 500 hit an intraday high of 1,467.07, while the Nasdaq reached a session high of 3,196.93.

A quick and sharp sell-off in spot gold shortly after midday, driven by a rumor that the CME may raise margin requirements on commodities, weighed on financial services stocks, according to Joseph Greco, managing director of Meridian Equity Partners in New York.

Many banks and other companies in the financial sector have high exposure to gold and other commodities, so any increase in margin requirements would affect

Stocks closed flat even though investors welcomed Spain’s efforts to seek a bailout and cheered Apple’s newest iPhone that went on sale today, driving its shares to a record high them, Greco said. Spot gold later recovered to trade up 0.6 percent at $1,777.19 an ounce by 1:11 p.m. EDT on Friday, after hitting a session high of $1,787.20 - close to its 2012 high of $1,790.30. But financial shares were still lower by late afternoon on Friday. The S&P financial index .GSPF ended down 0.3 percent.

The transportation sector limited the market’s advance on Friday, when the Dow Jones Transportation Average .DJT fell 1 percent. Earlier this week, two large shipping companies - FedEx Corp. (FDX.N) and Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC.N) - warned about the impact of the weakening world economy on their results. At the close, FedEx shares slid 0.9 percent to $84.39 and Norfolk Southern shares lost 1.7 percent to $65. On Wednesday, a few brokerage firms cut their price targets on FedEx stock. On Friday, four brokers lowered their price targets on Norfolk Southern’s stock.

The benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 Index .SPX has gained 5.9 percent since the start of August, mostly on expectations for new economic stimulus measures from the world’s central banks. On September 13, the Federal Reserve announced a third round of stimulus or quantitative easing, known as Q3, intended to bolster the economy and reduce

U.S. unemployment. The market was more active than usual because of “quadruple witching,” the quarterly settlement and expiration of four different types of September equity futures and options contracts. Expiration can lead to greater volume and volatility as players adjust or exercise their derivative positions.

“There was a little bit of a sell-off towards the close, but nothing crazy,” said JJ Kinahan, chief derivatives strategist at TD Ameritrade. “There is not much volatility because the market has been trading in a pretty tight range most of the day, and it looks like most of the players have already rolled their positions over the last two weeks.” Looking ahead to quarterly earnings, one bright spot came from the fashion front. Shares of Michael Kors Holdings Ltd (KORS.N) shot up 9.3 percent to close at $57.35. The fashion and accessory designer’s company said it will probably earn more than it expected in the second quarter as it banks on strong global sales.

Housing shares climbed, led by KB Home (KBH.N), up 16.4 percent at $15.26, after the fifth-largest U.S. homebuilder reported a surprising quarterly profit and said its revenue backlog hit a four-year high. The PHLX housing sector index .HGX surged 1.74 percent.

Euro gains vs dollar on spain optimism NEW YORK AGENCIES

Volume was thin ahead of the weekend, exacerbating volatility, and traders said the euro may struggle to extend gains amid uncertainty over the timing of a potential bailout.

Sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters Spain is considering freezing pensions and speeding up a rise in the retirement age as it attempts to meet conditions of an international aid package. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble dented expectations by saying on Friday that Spain did not need a sovereign bailout on top of the package already agreed for its banks because it was on the right path to regain the confidence of markets.

“Reports of a Spanish deal as soon as next week helped to boost sentiment and the euro. The market remains prudently bullish buying on dips,” said Sebastien Galy, currency strategist at Societe Generale in New York.

The euro rose 0.1 percent to $1.2987, having hit a session high of $1.3047 on Reuters data, not far from a four-and-a-half-month peak of $1.3169 set on Monday.

The dollar .DXY slipped 0.1 percent to 79.3331 against a basket of currencies, within sight of a six-and-a-halfmonth low of 78.601 hit last week in the wake of aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve.

Carl Hammer, chief currency strategist at SEB in Stockholm, said the euro may rise to $1.31 or slightly higher over the coming month but would peak at not more than $1.34-$1.35 because Spain applying for funding would be “the last piece of euro-positive news.”

Spain, the new epicenter of the euro zone debt crisis after Greece, Ireland and Portugal, has been hesitating to apply for external aid, creating uncertainty in the markets. Its borrowing costs fell on Thursday at a debt auction but the relief may be short-lived.

The European Central

The euro climbed against the US dollar, reversing earlier losses, helped by speculation Spain may soon request financial aid to help ease the country’s debt crisis Bank pledged this month to buy shorter-term bonds of troubled euro zone members but only after they first apply for assistance.

“The risk is that if they don’t (seek a bailout) investors will panic out of their newly bought Spanish bonds,” Societe Generale’s Galy said.

Even if Spain does request assistance, analysts say it may not be a positive sign for the euro as the tough spending cuts that come with the aid would put further pressure on an economy already in recession.

There are also concerns surrounding Greece, with negotiators still short of a deal that would unlock the next installment of the country’s 31.5-billioneuro bailout package. The dollar fell 0.2 percent to 78.10 yen, well below a onemonth high of 79.21 hit on Wednesday after the Bank of Japan boosted its asset-buying program to support the country’s economic recovery.

Sterling rose to its highest in nearly 13 months against the dollar, helped by UK public borrowing data that was not as bad as expected. It was last at $1.6246, up 0.2 percent.

The high-yielding Australian dollar climbed 0.2 percent to $1.0448.

The euro’s losses earlier in the session came after reports that the Swiss National Bank sold the currency against the Australian dollar as part of its long-term diversification drive to recycle its inventory of euros into higheryielding Australian dollars, said Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX Strategy at BK Asset Management.

Sanctions do nada to Iranian oil Iran continues to post promising oil export numbers amid Western sanctions CRUDE AWAKENING KUNWAR KHULDUNE SHAHID

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HE US continues striving hard to squeeze Iran into submission, some of the biggest oil purchasers are being showed the Washington stick, the EU embargo is now nearly three months old, you’d expect Iran’s fiscal reservoir to scream out with barrenness.

However, the reality is – if the numbers being posted be Iranian export, and the voice generated by the hierarchy in Tehran are anything to go by – the effect of the US sanctions on Tehran is a grand total of nada.

The Iranian hierarchy is adamant that the Western sanctions are doing zilch in terms of creating problems for the Iranian oil industry, since the oil is supplied to markets all over the globe,

and the traditional buyers are resisting the Western pressure. If anything the sanctions are making the world realize that they simply can’t do with taking a massive chunk of global oil produce out of the market, since there is no apposite substitute for Iranian oil. And the crude prices that have been soaring of late vindicate the position and importance of Tehran as the principal supplier in the global crude market.

It is being observed that Tehran is having no problem in selling its oil and that the crude export is on the rise, which is paving way for a currency influx. The primary reason why Iran has managed to, and continues to, dodge the sanctions bullet is because it has found numerous ways to insure its crude oil tankers to the Asian countries which has meant that the nation has forestalled any legal maneuvers that could potentially throw a decisive spanner into the oil works. A lack of insurance – apart from the oh so daunting Washington stick of course - was seen as possibly the only thing that could discourage leading companies from oil trade with Iran, and now that that base has been covered, Tehran looks all healthy and upbeat to play ball.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) had recently reported a fall in oil production from Tehran this year, which has been categorically re-

buffed by Rostam Qasemi, the Iranian oil minister. Tehran produced around 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) last year if them OPEC figures are to be believed and the minister is adamant that similar numbers would be posted this time round as well – a claim that is being vindicated by the recent export hike and the juxtaposition of numbers from the same time last year.

Washington is continuing to put pressure on the Iran’s main oil customers, China, India, Japan and South Korea to “seek other suppliers”. But no heed is being paid, or damn being given, so to speak with regards to these sanctions probably since “other suppliers” of similar mould and volume don’t exactly exist, now do they?

A baffling double standard, worth

highlighting here is the bias in the ostensibly global sanctions that would even put the customary American prejudice to shame. Both South Korea and Japan – strategic American chums - have been exempted from the US sanctions, since they would have trouble filling in the oil void, more so than the rest of the countries apparently.

So while the US makes a mockery of its foreign policy, Iran sits pretty flaunting promising export numbers, the oil price is set to soar stampeding over the $150 per barrel mark this winter. The demand for energy sources would rise as the temperature falls and with no plausible substitute present to make up the galleons even the $150 mark would be a miracle, if the price per barrel stays there or thereabouts.

Sunday, 23 September, 2012