PRO 28-09-2012_Layout 1 9/28/2012 12:12 AM Page 1
Friday, 28 September, 2012
Another lAte cut? Yet another rate cut likely on October 5 as inflation stays in single digit KARACHI
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ISMAIL DILAWAR
HE economic observers foresee another 50 basis pints rate-cut by the central bank on October 5 on the back of easing inflation which is expected to remain in single-digit during the first half of FY13. The State Bank on Wednesday reported that it would be releasing its monetary policy decision for the next two months on the 5th of next month. The regulator had slashed the discount rate by an unusual 1.5 percent to 10.5 percent from 12 percent in its last monetary policy announcement on August 10. Governor SBP Yasin Anwar had the told the reporters that the move was aimed at giving a relatively higher weight to the state of private sector credit and investment in the economy. “Inflation outlook has improved with a projection of 10.5 percent for FY13 and loans to private sector businesses have sharply decreased,” noted the governor.
And that the central bank’s projection of the previously backbreaking price hike was ranging on average between 10 and 11 percent for whole of the current fiscal year. The analysts, however, tend to partly differ with the central bank on the rate of inflation which they say would remain in single digit during the first half. In the second half, 2HFY13, it would jump back to the double digits. Perhaps basing their outlook on that of the SBP, the analysts predict the regulator further reducing the discount rate for the next couple of months. “A single digit inflation expectation during 1HFY13 coupled with above mentioned falling yields are signaling towards another discount rate cut (50bps) in the upcoming Monetary Policy Statement,” viewed InvestCap analyst Abdul Azeem. The policy rate, he said, would then stand at 10 percent. The monetary easing was also being expected by the secondary market participants as was evident from the current declining trend of the secondary
market yield of different government securities, said the analyst. About a downward trend in inflation, Azeem said the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the outgoing month of September was expected to remain in the single digit for the third consecutive month. “During Sep-12 we expect CPI to clock in at 9.02 percent,” said the analyst. However, he said, the prices of commodities like oil and wheat may be the major dampeners as they were likely to push the CPI up by 0.97 percent. During the month in review, the local motor fuel prices increased by 10.7 percent and kerosene oil prices went northwards by 8.6 percent against the previous month’s prices. Increase in oil prices influence the over all CPI index, as most commodities’ price react to fluctuation in oil prices. In addition, sharp jump of 10.7 percent was witnessed in the price of wheat floor, and is estimated to propel food group containing the highest weight in the CPI basket up by 1.03 percent. Continuing with the motioned trend of price uptick, the prices of rice, eggs and vegetables also increased by 16.5 percent, 12.57 percent and 8.6 percent, respectively. On the other hand, yearly moving average basis CPI would remain in double digit staying at 10.43 percent for Sep-12. The analyst anticipated that low inflation would prevail during 1HFY13 as the high base impact of CPI was expected to come to a halt by December 2012. “In 2HFY13, however, we see inflation to come yet again in double digit,” Azeem said. Moreover, he said, the upcoming payments of $ 2.3 billion to the IMF were expected to exert pressure on Pak rupee against the greenback. And that any upward movement in international oil prices coupled with flat textile exports are foreseen as another trigger for the widening trade balance that may also negatively impact the stability of rupee.
OGDCL’s 15th annual general meeting on 4th October ISLAMABAD: The Annual General Meeting (AGM) of OGDCL share holders is scheduled to be held by Ch. Muhammad Shafi Arshad Chairman of the Board of Directors and Masood Siddiqui MD/CEO OGDCL alongwith other directors at OGDCL Headquarter, Islamabad on 4th October, 2012 to dispose off ordinary business of the company carried out during the last financial year. The AGM will confirm the minutes of last AGM which was held on 28th September, 2011. This meeting will consider and adopt the audited accounts of the company for the year ended on 30 June 2012 together with the Director’s and auditor’s reports thereon. In the meeting the final cash dividend @ 27.75 per share will be approved for the year ended 30 June 2012 as recommended by the Board of Directors. This is in addition to other three interim cash dividends totaling to 45% i.e. Rs. 4.5 per share already paid during the FY 2011-12. Approval for appointment of Auditors for the year 2012-13 and to fix their remuneration will be accorded and the present auditors M/s KPMG Taseer hadi & Co. Chartered Accountants and M/s M. Yousuf Adil Saleem & Co. Chartered Accountants will stand retired on the conclusion of this meeting. The share transfer books of the Company will remain closed and no transfer of shares will be accepted for registration from Thursday, 27 September 2012 to Thursday 04 October 2012 (both days inclusive). Transfers received in order at the Shrae Registrars office by the close of business on Wednesday, 26th September 2012 will be treated in time for the purpose of payment of final cash dividend, if approved by the Shareholders. STAFF REPORT
Oil rebounds Prices rebound in Asia, Europe woes cap gains SINGAPORE AFP
Oil prices rebounded in Asian trade Thursday on bargain-hunting but escalating turmoil in debt-wracked Greece and Spain limited gains. New York’s main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in November was up 39 cents to $90.37 a barrel in morning trade after closing overnight below $90 a barrel for the first time since August 2. Brent North Sea crude for November delivery gained 29 cents to $110.33. A general strike in Greece and violent demonstrations in Spain to protest against tough austerity measures in exchange for much-needed financial lifelines hammered sentiment. “The main focus for investors globally is once again Europe, with Greece and Spain remaining the main concerns,” said Jason Hughes, head of premium client management at IG Markets Singapore. “Neither seems able to do enough to put its house and mountains of debt in order, and most developments have not appeased markets for long,” he said in a market commentary. “Despite all that has been promised so far by the ECB (European Central Bank) and the moves forward by politicians, we seem to be as far as ever from the end game for the eurozone crisis.” Police in Athens on Wednesday clashed with masked demonstrators during a nationwide strike over a new round of austerity cuts introduced in return for vital EU-IMF loans. Youths threw firebombs, smashed windows and set fire to rubbish on the sidelines of the demonstration near luxury hotels on the capital’s central Syntagma square. Police responded by firing tear gas and stun grenades to disperse a group of around 200 protesters. In Spain, police beat and fired rubber bullets at demonstrators Tuesday as the government prepares to pass its 2013 austerity budget Thursday, with 39 billion euros ($50 billion) in savings, including an anticipated third straight year of salary freezes for civil servants. Adding to Spain’s troubles was news that its recession has deepened “significant pace” in the third quarter of the year.
Asian markets mixed, eurozone fears return HONG KONG AFP
Asian markets were mixed in tentative trade Thursday, with bargain hunters moving in after recent losses while fears over Spanish and Greek debt returned to the fore. As violent anti-austerity protests broke out on the streets of Madrid and Athens, investor concerns mounted that the market euphoria from this month’s central bank stimulus announcements had evaporated. Tokyo was flat by the break, Hong Kong added 0.62 percent, Sydney eased 0.10 percent, Shanghai added 0.50 percent and Seoul was 0.15 percent higher.
After a month of calm that saw the European, US and Japanese central banks unveil plans to boost economic growth, focus has returned to the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, and in particular Spain and Greece. In Madrid thousands of protestors rallied near parliament for a second straight night after as the government prepares to pass its 2013 austerity budget on Thursday, with 39 billion euros ($50 billion) in savings. The trouble came as the country’s borrowing costs broke back above six percent and towards the seven percent danger level seen as unsustainable. With the passage of the budget Spain
should be able to apply for much-needed bailout cash from the European Union, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund, which will open the door for the ECB to begin buying bonds. However, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has refused so far to ask for help until he knows what the conditions are —
a situation that has left dealers in limbo. Meanwhile in Athens police and masked youths clashed during a general strike in protest at a new round of austerity introduced as it tries to unlock the next batch of cash from a rescue package that is needed to pay wages and bills. “The main focus for investors globally
is once again Europe, with Greece and Spain remaining the main concerns,” said Jason Hughes, head of premium client management at IG Markets Singapore. “Neither seems able to do enough to put its house and mountains of debt in order, and most developments have not appeased markets for long,” he said in a market commentary. “Despite all that has been promised so far by the ECB (European Central Bank) and the moves forward by politicians, we seem to be as far as ever from the end game for the eurozone crisis.” Despite troubles the euro managed to hold up. In early trade it bought $1.2874 and 100.02 yen, compared with $1.2870 and 100.04 yen late Wednesday in New York. The dollar changed hands at 77.69 yen, against 77.70 yen. New York’s main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in November was up 39 cents to $90.37 a barrel in morning trade after closing late Wednesday below $90 a barrel for the first time since August 2. Brent North Sea crude for November delivery gained 29 cents to $110.33. Gold was at $1,755.60 at 0200 GMT compared with $1,763.60 on Wednesday.
PRO 28-09-2012_Layout 1 9/28/2012 12:12 AM Page 2
It’s a bottomless pit…
Business 02 Major Gainers COMPANY OPEN Nestle Pakistan Ltd. 4150.00 Bata (Pak) Limited 963.53 Island Textile 295.10 Mithchells Fruit 331.00 Service Industries 183.48
Over Rs 1.2tn targeted for 1QFY13 as parching govt bowl keeps gulping billions KARACHI
H
ISMAIL DILAWAR
aving borrowed Rs 1.590 trillion during the first quarter, the cash-strapped government Wednesday made public its intention to borrow another trillion rupees from the primary dealers during the second quarter of FY13, ranging from October to December. The government set its new rounded off budgetary borrowing target at Rs 1.215 trillion, marking a slump of Rs 375 billion compared to Rs 1.590 trillion it had borrowed from banks during the outgoing first quarter, July-September. Earlier, in the fourth and last quarter of FY12, April-June, the government’s budgetary loan from the primary dealers was recorded at Rs
1.085 trillion. While the preceding third quarter, January-March FY12, had seen the State Bank auctioning the risk-free government securities to the tune of Rs 777 billion to cater the ever–burgeoning budgetary needs of the government. Issued on Wednesday the central bank’s pre-announced auction calendar shows that during the second quarter the government would be raising from banks the targeted amount through the sale of Government of Pakistan Market Treasury Bills (MTBs) and Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIBs). The SBP calendar shows that the government would be raising Rs 1.125 trillion through auctioning the t-bills while another Rs 90 billion would be borrowed through selling PIBs of 3, 5, 10 and 20 years maturity. Maturity period for the auctioned T-bills would be 3-, 6and
12-months. Over Rs 65.04 billion and negative Rs 9.709 billion would be secured as an additional requirement. The economic observers call it a sort of cyclical debt as the central bank, on one hand, is raising billions of rupees from banks for the government and at the same time is injecting huge sums into the rupee market on the other. It was Monday last when the state bank pumped over Rs 562 billion into the banking system with Governor Yasin Anwar believing that many of the small banks would collapse if the regulator stopped injections. The economic observers are concerned that much of the banking liquidity being sucked up by the cash-strapped government is being used for non-productive purpose such as running of the government. This trend, they warn, would leave the private sector sans cash thus dealing fresh blow to the government’s growth targets. During the period under review, the central bank would be conducting seven auctions for selling the t-bills and three for PIBs. The analysts said the cut-off yield on the government papers was depleting as since last 150bps rate-cut by the SBP the cut-off yield for T-bills has been subdued declining by 18 to 23bps. Also, in the latest PIB auction, the cut-off yield of the government papers was on the lower side, down by 4567bps, against the precding auction. The coupon rates announced Wednesday for the PIBs were 11.25 percent for 3-year, 11.50 percent for 5-year, 12 percent for 10-year and 13 percent for 20-year maturities. “Current declining trend of the secondary market yield of different government papers suggest that the secondary market participants are expecting further monetary easing in the upcoming monetary policy,” viewed InvestCap analyst Abdul Azeem.
HIGH 4200.00 1011.50 309.85 344.00 191.10
LOW 4150.00 970.01 309.85 344.00 184.00
CLOSE CHANGE 4200.00 50.00 1010.10 46.57 309.85 14.75 358.99 27.99 187.92 4.44
TURNOVER 40 900 200 100 18,900
985.00 850.00 211.00 250.00 125.00
913.00 850.00 205.16 244.50 113.19
871.00 807.50 195.11 256.98 114.70
-89.71 -54.50 -20.84 5.98 -4.43
500 150 2,400 1,100 1,400
19.72 9.30 48.60 6.24 19.99
19.38 8.80 47.61 6.02 19.00
19.37 9.11 49.16 6.27 19.57
0.01 0.33 1.30 0.28 0.58
9,386,000 5,493,500 4,248,000 3,893,500 2,888,000
Major Losers Wyeth Pak Limited Siemens Pakistan Pak Gum & Chemical National Foods Shield Corpor
960.71 862.00 215.95 251.00 119.13
Volume Leaders P.T.C.L.A Maple Leaf Cement D.G.K.Cement Fauji Cement Tariq Glass Ind.
19.36 8.78 47.86 5.99 18.99
Interbank Rates US Dollar UK Pound Japanese Yen Euro
94.8732 153.6852 1.2204 121.9785
Dollar East US Dollar Euro Great Britain Pound Japanese Yen Canadian Dollar Hong Kong Dollar UAE Dirham Saudi Riyal Australian Dollar
BUY
SELL
94.50 121.15 152.47 1.2053 95.57 12.00 25.63 25.12 97.76
95.00 122.24 153.82 1.2158 96.92 12.17 25.83 25.28 100.08
Euro remains weak TOKYO: The euro remained weak in Asia on Thursday with investors seeking refuge in the safe-haven yen as anti-austerity protests in Spain and Greece raised fresh concerns over the eurozone debt crisis. The euro bought $1.2877 and 100.00 in Tokyo morning trade, compared with $1.2870 and 100.04 yen late Wednesday in New York where the common currency lost ground amid risk aversion. The dollar changed hands at 77.66 yen against 77.70 yen in US trade. The euro was weak but traders seemed reluctant to sell the currency aggressively against the yen amid lingering expectations that Spain will formally request a bailout, said a senior dealer at a Japanese bank. AFP
CORPORATE CORNER Brand Ambassador Shah Rukh Khan launches the latest TAG Heuer Carrera 1887 Elegance series
every pregnancy is wanted”. Launched in 2007, its mission is to improve awareness about contraception and its various methods to enable married people to make informed decisions about family planning. Now in its sixth year, WCD is celebrated in about 70 countries worldwide and in 2011 alone, the campaign was able to reach 370 million people. PRESS RELEASE
Soneri Bank Limited joins hands with MoneyGram
Japanese brands explore Pakistani market with Japan Pavilion
KARACHI: On the occasion of the brand completing a decade of operations in India, TAG Heuer at a press conference in Mumbai at Taj Lands End, on 6th August 2012, announced the renewal of its association with brand ambassador Shah Rukh Khan. Having completed nine years of his affiliation with TAG Heuer, this renewal marks a remarkable journey of growth and evolution for both the brand as well as the brand ambassador. Having only a handful of point of sale in just two cities in 2003, TAG Heuer is now present in more than 92 point of sale across 27 cities and 7 exclusive boutiques based in New Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore and Chennai. Besides being an integral part of the ad campaigns, Shah Rukh Khan made TAG Heuer a special part of his films as well while growing from strength to strength as the King of Bollywood, the highlight being the SRK Monaco 69 Limited Edition launched by TAG Heuer in the film Don. PRESS RELEASE
KARACHI: Japanese brands and companies will be further exploring the Pakistani Market through participation and promotion at the 7th Expo Pakistan Exhibition in October 2012. An exclusive pavilion is being set-up at the Expo Center in Karachi, inspired by the “Japan External Trade Organization” (JETRO), which enjoys the cooperation of numerous prominent Japanese companies operating across various industrial and commercial sectors of Pakistan. Prominent sectors that have attracted Japanese investments and entrepreneurs include; Automobiles, Engineering, Consumer Items, etc. The key participants from Japan this year will be Toyota, Honda, Suzuki and Hino, displaying the latest models of their most popular cars, coaster and truck in Pakistan. PRESS RELEASE
ISLAMABAD: In connection with World Heart Day 2012, observed every year on 29th September, Pakistan Telecommunications Company Limited (PTCL) held an awareness seminar on ‘Prevention of Heart Disease among Women & Children’. Dr. Inam ul Haq, Consultant Cardiologist, Federal Government Services Hospital, Islamabad was specially invited by PTCL to speak at the occasion. The seminar was held at S A Siddiqui auditorium in the PTCL Head Quarters premises. Senior Executive Vice President (SEVP) HR, Syed Mazhar Hussain while speaking on the occasion said that PTCL believes in providing a healthy and safe working environment for its employees, the main objective of this seminar is to create awareness regarding heart diseases amongst our staff, with special focus on Women and Children.” “PTCL is the only telecommunications services provider in the country which has dedicated medical centers all across the country for providing the health related facilities to its employees.” He further added. PRESS RELEASE
Afsheen Mehboob exhibition in USA
Bayer HealthCare Pakistan celebrates World Contraception Day LAHORE: World Contraception Day (WCD) is a Worldwide Campaign that takes place on September 26th every year, the annual worldwide campaign centers around a vision for “a world where
KARACHI: Soneri Bank will now facilitate the delivery of MoneyGram payments to beneficiaries through its extensive branch network, which covers most of the high home remittance volume receiving areas in Pakistan. Recently Soneri Bank also became a member of the PRI Initiative, and is preparing to launch full-fledged home remittance facilitation services to beneficiaries and banks in Pakistan, as well as remitters and remittance companies abroad. Speaking at the Agreement Signing Ceremony held on xx xx xx, Mr. Aftab Manzoor, President & CEO, Soneri Bank Ltd. said: “On the Home remittance front, Soneri Bank is committed to serving the community at large, and to making it convenient for beneficiaries of home remittances to receive payments quickly and efficiently.” PRESS RELEASE
PTCL organizes heart disease prevention and awareness seminar
KARAchI: The consul General of Malaysia and Mrs.hidia Abu Baker, hosted a reception to celebrate the 55th National day. Picture shows Speaker Sindh Assembly Nisar Khuro, Minister haji Muzzafar Shujra,IT Minister Raza haroon, with host.
KARACHI: Afsheen Mehboob, also known as the favorite designer to the stars such as Shaista Wahidi , Nida Yasir and many more , recently held an extremely successful exhibition in Ramada Inn Chicago. The event was a huge success as the visitors were delighted to see a unique and exciting line of Afsheen Mehboob’s semi formals and formals, all based on a sleek and chic silhouette. The excellent finishes and the reasonable prices kept the crowd buying her clothes with both hands and they getting restless as her stall was crowded. PRESS RELEASE
KARAchI: The consul General of Thailand Mr Wichai Sirisujin, and Mrs Suchada Sirisujin, inaugurating Thai Food Festival at Pearl continental hotel. Picture shows hon Trade Advisor of Thai Govt Mr Arif Suleman, hotel GM, Mr Azeem Qureshi, and Federal Advisor on Textile Dr Mirza Ikhtiar Baig, also present on the occasion.
Friday, 28 September, 2012