profitepaper pakistantoday 28th November, 2012

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PRO 28-11-2012_Layout 1 11/27/2012 11:52 PM Page 1

Wednesday, 28 November, 2012

PSO to establish 100 LPG stations A modern oil refinery in KP also being considered ISLAMABAD

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STAFF REPORT

AKISTAN State Oil (PSO) is to establish 100 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) auto gas stations in the country within a year, besides initiating construction of a modern crude oil refinery in Khyber Pakhtunkhawa (KP) which would be completed within four years. This was stated by Naeem Yahya Mir, Managing Director (MD) Pakistan State Oil (PSO) while addressing a press conference here on Tuesday. He said that the national fuel supplying company has signed a contract with Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC) for importing furnace oil from foreign ports so that valuable foreign exchange could be saved being spent on making payments to the foreign shipping companies. Highlighting PSO”s future expansion strategy, Mir said that PSO in principle has decided to establish an oil refinery is KPK, adding that the PSO has not violated any rules and regulations while signing a contract with Bakri Trading Company Pakistan (Pvt.) Ltd (BTCPL). Mr. Mir said that as part of his dream vision for PSO, he aimed to make the national giant an integrated energy company by incorporating all aspects of the product supply chain including exploration, refining, distribution and shipping. Through this, the company

will minimize dependence on foreign supply chains and follow the model of successful companies which have integrated multiple supply chain aspects within themselves. He also that PSO can only achieve this dream by connecting with upstream partners, introducing innovative ideas to beat the competition downstream and establishing control of its own product supply chain. Furthermore, he outlined his goals of establishing PSO as the leading company in Pakistanwithin a period of two years, a regional player in four years and a member of the ranks of global oil conglomerates such as PETROCHINA, PETRONAS-Malaysia, PETROBRAS -Brazil etc within six years. Moving forward, the MD-PSO outlined some of the new initiatives PSO has undertaken under his leadership including signing a Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC) for importing furnace oil from foreign ports, development of a new oil tanker mooring point and storage facility at Hub which will increase national storage capacity and reduce congestion at the existing jetties, establishment of over 100 LPG Autogas stations in the upcoming year and agreements with PARCO, BYCO and Bakri Trading for the acquisition of POL products. Other major projects listed at the conference included establishment of a modern EURO IV capacity refinery in Khyber Pakhtunwa, acquisition of a refinery in the south of the country and setting up

ISLAMABA ONLINE

a Base II lubricant refinery. He also plans to establish a regional JV Aviation Company in the Middle East and is looking to expand into the coal business in partnership with other companies. Furthermore, the MD stated that he had embarked on a program of cutting out middle-men and cost rationalization at PSO. He stated that by eliminating the addition of detergent additives in Mogas and Diesel, the Company would save ap-

proximately Rs. 635 Million/year, savings of Rs. 450 Million/year were also expected through the stoppage of war premium insurance payments on POL product imports. Additionally by uplifting products from local sources/ refineries, foreign exchange of approximately $200 Million would be saved annually and a further Rs. 500 Million will be saved by engaging the national flag carrier PNSC for transport of furnace oil.

Next gas import destination: Nigeria ISLAMABAD ONLINE

\Asim Hussain Advisor to the Prime Minister on Petroleum and Natural Resources has said that the Government of Pakistan has provided friendly opportunities to foreign investors in the oil and gas sector under the new Petroleum Policy 2012.

Dr Asim Hussain stated this in a meeting with the Ambassador of Nigeria to Pakistan H.E. Mr. Dauda Danladi, who called on the Advisor here on Tuesday. The Nigerian Ambassador apprised the Advisor that Nigeria is enriched with oil and gas resources and it has an estimated 184 TCF gas reserves. The Government of Nigeria supports deregulation of the Petroleum Sector so

OGRA to hold public hearing today

that healthy competition is encouraged. H.E. Mr. Dauda Danladi, while referring to the recent D-8 conference, emphasized that in the spirit of mutual cooperation direct intervention on Government to Government basis is required in the Oil and Gas sector. The Ambassador also informed that Nigeria has established Free Zones for International E&P companies, which provides beneficial oppor-

tunities for Pakistani companies. Dr. Asim Hussain welcomed the interest shown by Nigerian Government to enter into dialogue regarding possible cooperation in the oil and gas sector. The Advisor also suggested to explore vistas of cooperation in the downstream oil and gas sector including refining. Dr. Asim Hussain accepted the invitation to visit Nigeria.

In the backdrop of Supreme Court directions, the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) will hold public hearing today (Wednesday) in Karachi which will help determine a new price formula of CNG. An official of Ogra told Online that following the Supreme Court directions the public hearing was going to be held in Karachi which will be chaired by Chairman Ogra Saeed Ahmed Khan. Official further said that Regulator will consider all applicable suggestions of the stakeholders which will help settle on a new price formula of CNG as per the directions of apex court. Ogra has decided to solicit public opinion to determine the prices of CNG for which Regulator has been holding public hearing in three major cities of the country including Lahore, Islamabad and Karachi. Ogra held meeting on CNG price on November 23 in Lahore and that kind of second meeting in Islamabad on November26 and Karachi will be the venue for a public hearing today(Wednesday). The demand audit report of the CNG stations and proposals from the regulator will be put forward before the masses and report which will be compiled after the people were approached for their opinions, will be produced before the Supreme Court on December 5. Chairman Supreme Council CNG Associations Ghyas Paracha has expressed the hope that Ogra would fix a price that would not become burden for the CNG station owners and the people. Paracha also called for reduction in CNG taxes and surcharges.

Fiscal deficit all set to widen by 6.5% of GDP in FY13 KARACHI ISMAIL DILAWAR

Despite positives like the inflow of $ 1.8 billion from the United States in August this year under the long-withheld Coalition Support Fund (CSF), the country’s fiscal deficit for fiscal year 2012-13 is expected to swell by Rs 1.5 trillion or 6.5 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The official quarterly data, however, shows that fiscal gap between the federal government’s revenues and expenditures during JulyOctFY13 set at Rs 284 billion compared Rs 257 billion of the correspond i n g

quarter last year. Latest fiscal operation numbers released by Ministry of Finance (MoF) depict a relatively curtailed fiscal deficit in 1QFY13, thanks to the CSF. The analysts believe that despite the subdued 1Q numbers, the full year fiscal deficit was likely to stand around at 6.5 percent. According to Topline analyst Nauman Khan, this would be on the back of a likely shortfall in tax revenue, higher subsidy outlay and higher development expenditures in the election year. Khan said the full year numbers fare better than last year deficit of 8.4 percent but compares unfavorably with last 10 years and 20 years average of 5.1 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively. “Furt h e r , with

threats persistent on the external account, financing of fiscal deficit would remain a major concern for the policy makers, particularly in 2HFY13,” said the analyst. As per the latest fiscal operation numbers, 93 percent growth in non-tax revenue in 1QFY13 helped the deficit to remain at 1.2 percent of GDP similar to the one registered in the same period last year. Receipts of $1.8 billion CSF stood out as the single largest factor in growth in non-tax revenue, he said. Resultantly, the government’s total revenue increased by 30 percent to Rs 692 billion with 10 percent growth also witnessed in tax collections. On the other side, total expenditure grew by 23 percent with 24 percent increase in current expenditure and 15 percent decline coming in development expenditure. Digging in current expenditure, the increase came primarily from 76 percent increase in debt servicing, while 82 percent increase was witnessed in general public services (this includes subsidy payments). Disbursement in Public Sector Development Program expenditure declined by 15 percent, during 1QFY13 “With elections around the corner, we anticipate increase in the fiscal slippages in the coming months. In our base case, we estimate revenue shortfall of approx. Rs150-200 billion (though we have not incorporated the effect of tax

amnesty scheme), while we estimate subsidy head to cross Rs350 billion this year. Furthermore, we foresee little chance of cut in the PSDP as it is a potent tool to gear up for next elections,” Khan said. Though worrisome, the analyst said, the major threat comes from financing of fiscal deficit with pressure existing on the external front. “We expect the onus of financing the deficit will squarely fall on the domestic sources as witnessed in the 1Q. Of Rs284 billion net financing requirement, Rs285 billion was provided by domestic sources while foreign financing stood at (-ve) Rs1.5 billion,” Khan said. The material change in his estimate, Khan said, may come from another round of CSF receipts, implementation of tax amnesty scheme. On the other hand, another round of one-off payment in lieu of circular debt can further increase the deficit,” said he. Abdul Azeem, an analyst at InvestCap Research, also sees the fiscal deficit clocking in at 6.5 percent during FY13. “As per latest fiscal figures, total deficit during 1QFY13 of Pakistan didn’t show any signs of recovery as it stagnant at 1.2 percent of GDP as compared to same period last year,” he said. However, in absolute terms, the deficit went up by 10 percentYoY to Rs284 billion from last year’s level of Rs257 billion. An initial insight would reveal that the revenue head rose by 30 percentYoY (Rs158 billion) in absolute terms

to 692 billion as compared to last year of Rs534 billion. Similarly, expenditure grew by 23 percentYoY (Rs185 billion) to Rs976 billion as compared the corresponding period last year, that’s why the budget deficit still at 1.2 percent of GDP during 1QFY13. Both direct and indirect taxes are showing reasonable improvement, with sales tax registering growth of 8 percentYoY in absolute terms, as its bracket was expanded despite stable rate. However, in real terms tax collection still stays 1.9 percent of GDP same levels as compared to last year, meanwhile direct tax-GDP also remained at 0.6 percent of GDP. “We therefore believe that evidence of real growth in taxes is still lacking and only a handful of head was defence services which can be seen outperforming as the US collation support fund improved the amount of this head to Rs107 billion,” said Abdul Azeem. Another notable rise was seen in the collection of Gas Infrastructure Development Cess (Cess) and Petroleum Levy (PL), where cess collection was witnessed at Rs8.6 billion and PL to Rs22.8 billion during 1QFY13. The cash-strapped government, he said, was heavily relying on domestic sources, mainly the banks, to fund the deficit during the first quarter during which the said sources provided liquidity worth Rs285 billion compared to Rs262 billion in the same period last year.


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