profitepaper pakistantoday 30th march, 2012

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PRO 30-03-2012_Layout 1 3/30/2012 1:45 AM Page 1

Bears halt bull surge, index down 16.31 points Page 03

profit.com.pk

Friday, 30 March, 2012

Double-edged sword hangs over SBP Liquidity management by SBP augurs well for inflation, but aftereffects to unfold g Inflation for FY12 to rest at 11.2pc for improved $16.44b dollar reserves g Price hike no more a concern, but fiscal, external imbalances are g Central bank pumped over Rs 543b in system in two OMOs g Government borrowing form banks swell to 4.6pc of GDP g

KARACHI

T

ISMAIL DILAWAR

he economic observers foresee the headline inflation for FY12 setting around 11.2 percent due primarily to active liquidity management by the central bank and a relatively improved foreign exchange reserves held by the banks. Whereas the State Bank continues to inject billions, almost every week, in the cash-strapped banking system, the economic managers are taking comfort from a stable position of dollar reserves, accumulating to $ 16.441 billion up to March 23, the central and commercial banks are possessing. “(The) pressure of rupee depreciation on inflation subsided for now owing to active float management by the central bank and improved USD reserves lying with banks,” viewed Farhan Bashir Khan of InvestCap. The central bank injected in the system over Rs 543 billion, Rs 223.050 billion on March 26 and Rs 320.450 billion on March 16, after moping up Rs 3 billion on the 13th of this month to help the liquidity market float in balance.

Another positive the analysts see is the net domestic and foreign assets of the banks that, they believe, were depicting much lower deterioration compared to the broad trend. According to SBP data, during JulyMarch 16 (FY12), the banks’ Net Foreign Assets stood at negative Rs 225 billion against positive Rs 177 billion of last year’s corresponding period. While the Net Domestic Assets of the banks swelled to Rs 731 billion against Rs 364 billion of FY11. “We expect full year headline inflation for FY12 to reside around

11.2 percent. Whether this should provide room for monetary easing is an altogether different question,” analyst Khan said. Dubbing inflation no longer a prime concern for the economic managers in short run, the analysts said imbalances on the fiscal and external fronts coupled with tight liquidity conditions were appearing to be much broader concerns for the country from monetary policy point of view. however, given the government’s ever-increasing budgetary bank borrowings, which have swelled beyond Rs 923 billion

Not dancing to the disco beat g

g

DISCOs show helplessness in recovery from provincial govt departments Minister directs installation of meters for water supply in Sindh ISLAMABAD

T

AMER SIAL

he power distribution companies (DISCOs) shocked the Ministry of Water and Power on Thursday when they clearly expressed their helplessness in recovery of over Rs 60 billion dues from provincial government departments of Sindh and Punjab. An official source said DISCOs expressed their helplessness at a specially convened meeting to review their performance especially the recovery of outstanding dues. Minister for Water and Power, Syed Naveed Qamar directed them for cutting their power supply. however, they said that was not possible as provincial governments start pressurizing them after the move. They proposed cutting of outstanding provincial dues at the federal level. however, the source said Finance Ministry was opposed to the demand arguing that under the 18th

amendment that was not possible. The meeting was informed that the Sindh government had outstanding dues of Rs 45 billion while of Punjab were Rs 15 billion. When they were asked to follow disconnection campaign indiscriminatingly, they said that they could not take the extreme step as the provincial governments fail to provide them protection in case of protest, as already witnessed recently during riots in Punjab. The Chief executives of DISCOs of Sindh said that the provincial government had assured them to clear their outstanding dues but considering the huge outstanding amount there was no possibility of any significant payment during the current fiscal year. They demanded intervention by the federal government to resolve the issue. experts have proposed many times that representatives from the provincial government representatives and local administration should be included in DISCOs board of directors to improve the recovery and curb the massive power theft. however, the source said the minister directed them that they should strictly implement the decision of disconnection in case of non payment and no leniency should be shown towards the public sector departments. The meeting was informed that the main provincial defaulters were the water supply departments and if their power supply was cut there could be

law and order situation. The meeting also took serious notice of un-metered power supply to some of the provincial and municipal government offices in Sindh. They were getting the facility after the devastating floods of 2010 and 2011 and were not ready to pay for installing new meters. however, the minister asked the CeOs of heSCO and SePCO to install meters on their own and if there was resistance then disconnect the power supply. he directed that there should be no billing on the basis of load calculation anywhere in the province for any consumers. All the billing should be made on actual use of electricity through metering. The meeting was informed that over all DISCOs have improved their recover as they collected Rs 36.5 billion as against Rs 41.5 billion during February, this year. however, the source said that their recovery of previous outstanding dues remained poor as they managed recovery of only 5 percent. Warning DISCOs, the minister said to check their unscheduled load shedding a monitoring cell was being established to streamline the load management. he said that due to increase in the power generation, unannounced load shedding has been lifted in the country. he asked them to follow the load management schedule. he directed them that there should be no complaints of inflated bills and officials involved should be taken to task.

during July-March period, the analysts said the central bank was likely to keep the discount rate unchanged at 12 percent for the rest of FY12. More worrisome is the fact that the cash-strapped government’s overall borrowings for budgetary support had swelled to Rs 1 trillion or 4.6 percent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product. “Borrowing from SBP has crossed Rs 235 billion, which is highest level so far during FY12,” said the InvestCap analyst adding “Over and above, inflation might pop back up as a leading concern during FY13 as an aftereffect of current liquidity and money supply trends.” Therefore, Khan said, the regulator may be expected to stay the 12 percent discount rate with possibility of subsequent tightening. About monthly inflation position, Khan said the price hike was expected to stand at 11.10 percent in March, up 1.45 percent over the previous month. “We see current monthly inflation sustaining forward for remainder of this year,” the analyst said adding that “Greater oil prices, possible supply shocks, seasonality as well as trickle down cost push pressures to play a wider role in coming quarter”.

COMMent

Russia then I

SlAMABAD’S newfound interest in Moscow (read Gazprom) despite US pressure against the Iran pipeline deal, and Russia’s continued interest in financing the pipeline even though Washington’s pressure disengaged the Chinese consortium means the project is definitely on. And if it upsets the US, then so be it. So much has clearly been decided in all capitals central to the deal. That Putin’s boys went so far as to include tapi in the potential to-do list betrays their overwhelming interest in committing long-term to this region, especially since clumsy US policy is leaving wide vaccums for Gazprom and the like to fill, and quite profitably at that. The Russian entry will sit pretty well with Iran as well, seeing their long history of doing business with the Russians, not that the Chinese have been lesser friends. Both Moscow and Beijing have been crucial in controlling international pressure on Iran’s nuclear program, not to mention shielding its most important strategic ally in the region – Syria – from relentless pressure for regime change. however, this means that Pakistan’s yes with Russia will also alter regional politics, and to no small extent. And this brings us to Gazprom’s politics. Its leverage and outreach make political connotations inevitable. Its executives touch the pinnacles of power, right at the central crossroads of high-level energy and strategic politics. It is little surprise that its last CeO graduated to president of Russia for the four years just past. Its depth of penetration, reaching the heart of europe, has caused numerous extremely serious political setbacks with much of the continent. Partnering with a beast like Gazprom will require prudence Pakistan has had little experience with, especially of late. Yet it is crucial. At best what follows will be an ideal marriage of convenience. And at worst, a falling out that will leave Islamabad, Tehran and Moscow all worse off. For now though, most important roads lead to Russia.


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