BREXIT
HOW WILL BREXIT IMPACT ON THE UK’S ABILITY TO COUNTER TERRORISM? O ne of the things that the UK and the EU can agree on is that counter terrorism (CT) cooperation must continue beyond the Brexit transition period. This includes protecting CT capabilities, such as mechanisms for rapid and secure data exchange; practical measures to support cross-border operational cooperation; and UK cooperation with EU law enforcement, intelligence and criminal justice agencies. Yet, time is running out, and the UK is now unlikely to secure a bespoke Internal Security Treaty, providing permanent access to most (if not all) EU information systems. This was always ambitious, given the lack of legal basis or precedent and the UK’s refusal to adhere to the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU). Instead, the scenario that the UK will crash out of the EU, losing access to all information systems and databases established on the basis of EU law is more likely. Even if the UK manages to negotiate a deal, this will likely be more restrictive than that awarded to Schengen Area
associated states, representing a major loss of capability. The UK will attempt, and may to some extent succeed, in building parallel structures and workarounds. However, the end result is likely to involve more friction and reduced levels of cooperation. The impact on the UK’s terrorist threat picture is, however, likely to be minimal.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO: ‘NO DEAL’ BREXIT Law enforcement and intelligence agencies in Europe see terrorism primarily through a national lens. Even in the worstcase scenario, relationships between the UK’s security and intelligence services and their counterparts in EU countries will continue to operate on the basis of direct contact between national agencies. The UK will also continue to be a member of the Counter Terrorism Group (CTG), which facilitates CT cooperation across 30 European Intelligence and Security services. The CTG has the capability to undertake CT operations globally and provides valuable proactive and sometimes E
ISSUE 45 | COUNTER TERROR BUSINESS MAGAZINE
13
