56
ECLAC
Development in transition: concept and measurement proposal for renewed cooperation...
D. Caribbean SIDS and their vulnerability in the graduation process Owing to the small size of their economies and the particular constraints and challenges they face, Caribbean small island developing states (SIDS) can be severely affected by graduation and the consequent loss of access to concessional finance. The size of Caribbean economies greatly limits their ability to benefit from economies of scale and scope and to increase their productivity. The absence of economies of scale leads to higher unit costs as a result of suboptimal firm size, lack of complementarity in productive activities and input production, and an inefficient spatial production hierarchy. Because they are islands, transport costs per unit of goods traded are higher than in other countries. These high transport costs limit innovative development in productive sectors that depend on imported inputs. In addition, smaller producers are considered a high-risk investment, which restricts financing possibilities. Furthermore, small countries have limited physical and human capital endowments. This is compounded by the fact that Caribbean SIDS are characterised by one of the highest emigration rates in the region, and emigration is concentrated in skilled human capital (people with tertiary education). Partly as a consequence, Caribbean countries are facing a process of population ageing. Lastly, geographical location exacerbates these constraints, as Caribbean SIDS are in a geographical area prone to a growing number of increasingly severe natural disasters. Between 1950 and 2016, the economic cost of natural disasters was more than US$ 22 billion in the Caribbean, compared to US$ 58 billion worldwide. In some countries the estimated damage can exceed the size of the economy. Thus, it is estimated that the cost of Hurricane Maria in Dominica was equivalent to 226% of its GDP, and the damage caused by Hurricane Ivan in Grenada in 2004 was of the order of 200% of its GDP (IMF, 2018). Central American countries are having to cope with similar challenges in the face of the continued reduction of international cooperation. Although they are considered middle-income countries, there are considerable differences between them, and they are marked by significant internal inequalities. In 2020, per capita GDP in the subregion ranged from US$ 1,721.8 in Nicaragua to US$ 9,664.9 in Costa Rica (in constant 2010 dollars). According to the most recent available data, in five Central American countries (Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama) the Gini index, which measures income distribution, was higher than the simple average for Latin America. This is particularly important given that Latin America is the most unequal region in the world.5 Central America is facing increasing fiscal pressure, which has been strongly exacerbated by the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. Between 2019 and 2020, public sector debt in these countries increased, on average, from 49.0% of GDP to 58.6% of GDP. The highest levels are observed in El Salvador (88.4% of GDP) and Costa Rica (80.2% of GDP). This has further increased the percentage of public resources devoted to debt service payments. It is increasingly necessary for the subregion to have access to diversified long-term external resources at low rates. Central American countries are also particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events. The Global Climate Risk Index produced by Germanwatch for the period 1998–2017 indicates that Honduras was the country with the second-highest recorded climate impacts in the world, while Guatemala ranked fourteenth and El Salvador sixteenth (ECLAC, 2020c). Because of their destructive effects on production sectors, natural disasters cause major disruptions in productivity. They also translate into higher levels of debt, thereby reducing the ability of governments to improve productivity through spending on education, health care and infrastructure. In 2013, 5 of the See ECLAC (2021e).
5
