The climate emergency in Latin America and the Caribbean
1
The path ahead – resignation or action?
Goal 13 (climate action), It highlights the urgent need to adopt measures to combat climate change and its effects, and the consequences of these changes may be irreversible if action is not taken immediately
PROBLEMS
IMPACTS
ALTERNATIVES
Public Policy Instruments
The increase in greenhouse gas emissions resulting from global production and consumption decisions is already having a noticeable effect on the climate
The limit to carbon emissions or the carbon budget frames the window of opportunity that should determine the speed of change in such fundamental areas as energy production, transport and mobility, the way cities are built and the limits set on the transformation of nature.
There are two main obstacles to meeting the goals proposed by the Paris Agreement and the SDGs: Problems with public policy instruments and problems with productive sectors
For our region, the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) of the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are clear benchmarks for efforts to seize the opportunity to progress likewise with the quality and sustainability of national and local development, while helping to mitigate the climate emergency
Productive Sectors
Physical Social
The economic and social problems in the Latin American and Caribbean region increase the gap to achieve sustainability.
Achieving this transformation far transcends specific sectoral or technological policies, requiring a worldwide economic shift towards a great environmental effort that must be the dominant purpose and goal of technology configurations and public policy tools, from the implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures in the different productive sectors.
Mitigation
Mitigation measures for technological innovation and risk management in different sectors.
Mixed
Any investment aimed at restoring the natural heritage and ecosystem services will bring benefits on both the adaptation and the mitigation fronts.
Adaptation
Redirect investments towards adaptation through technological innovation and solutions based on nature in the different productive sectors.
2
The climate emergency in Latin America and the Caribbean The path ahead – resignation or action?
Goal 13 (climate action), It highlights the urgent need to adopt measures to combat climate change and its effects, and the consequences of these changes may be irreversible if action is not taken immediately
The 2030 agenda for the development of the Paris agreement
Global Carbon Budget For our region, the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) of the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are clear benchmarks for efforts to seize the opportunity to progress likewise with the quality and sustainability of national and local development, while helping to mitigate the climate emergency
Regional carbon budget: Latin America and the Caribbean (ALC) back
Article 2: “Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C …” Article 3: “…nationally determined contributions (NDCs) …”
2ºC = 1.070 Gt de CO2 (would run out in about 2 decades) 1,5ºC = 370 Gt CO2 (would run out in less than 1 decade) Reduction of current emissions, and make them compatible with the targets: 2 °C = Reduction of current 50 to about 40 Gt of CO2 eq by 2030.
Reducing the current 7 to less than 5 tons per capita and achieving neutrality by 2070.
1,5 °C = Reduction of current 50 to about 24 Gt of CO2 eq by 2030.
Reducing the current 7 to less than 3 tons per capita and neutrality should be achieved by the middle of this century
The region contributes 8.3% of global emissions, that is, 4.2 Gt of CO2 eq If the carbon budget were distributed in accordance with the current global emissions share of LAC, the region would have a budget of around 47 Gt of CO2 eq and 110 Gt of CO2 eq to meet the 1.5 °C and 2 °C targets, respectively. The budget compatible with the 1.5 °C objective would be used up in about 11 years and that compatible with the 2 °C objective in just over 23 years.
3
The climate emergency in Latin America and the Caribbean The path ahead – resignation or action?
PROBLEMS
Public Policy Instruments
In Latin America and the Caribbean, emissions from all sectors continue to rise and, as in the rest of the world, the greatest increase has been in the energy sector. As a result, the energy component is becoming increasingly important in the region’s emissions, and transport has been one of the fastest-growing sectors within this.
Latin America and the Caribbean and the world: sectoral shares of greenhouse gas emissions, 2016 (Percentages) 80 70
70.4
60 50
45.3
40 30
22.9
19.3
20
There are two main obstacles to meeting the goals proposed by the Paris Agreement and the SDGs:
11.6
8.6
10
5.8
7.2
3.3
4.9
0.3
0 Energy
Agriculture and livestock
Industrial processes
World
Problems with public policy instruments and problems with productive sectors
Land use change and forestry
Waste
0.3
Other
Latin America and the Caribbean
Latin America and the Caribbean: greenhouse gas emissions, 1990, 2000 and 2016 A. Latin America and the Caribbean: greenhouse gas emissions by sector, 1990, 2000 and 2016 (gigatons of CO 2 equivalent) 2.0
1.9
1.8 1.6 1.3
1.4
Productive Sectors
1.2 1.0
1.0 0.8
0.8
1.0
0.9
0.6 0.3
0.4 0.1
0.2 0
back
Agriculture and livestock
Energy
0.2
Industrial processes
0.1
0.1
Waste
0.2
4
The climate emergency in Latin America and the Caribbean The path ahead – resignation or action?
PROBLEMS Latin America and the Caribbean: energy subsidies and general government health spending, 2015 (Percentages of GDP) 25
Public Policy Instruments
20
15
10
5
General government health spending
Problems with public policy instruments and problems with productive sectors
Ecuador
Dominican Rep. Bolivia (Plur. State of) Trinidad and Tobago Venezuela (Bol. Rep. of)
El Salvador
Haiti
Nicaragua
Chile
Belize
Panama
Argentina
Brazil
Colombia
Mexico
Jamaica
Guatemala
Suriname
Guyana
Paraguay
Peru Antigua and Barbuda Costa Rica
Honduras Saint Kitts and Nevis Grenada
Uruguay
Bahamas
Dominica
Barbados
0
There are two main obstacles to meeting the goals proposed by the Paris Agreement and the SDGs:
Energy subsidies
Latin America: structure of taxation related to the environment, 2016 (Percentages of GDP) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0
Other
back
Transport
Energy
OECD (34 countries)
Latin America (17 countries)
Ecuador
Peru
El Salvador
Colombia
Brazil
Panama
Guatemala
Chile
Argentina
Paraguay
Bolivia (Plur. State of)
Nicaragua
Mexico
Uruguay
Dominican Rep.
0
Costa Rica
0.5
Honduras
Productive Sectors
Emissions of CO2 by producers and consumers are cost-free: Only 4 LAC countries have a CO2 tax and it is very low: Argentina, Colombia, Chile and Mexico. The consumption or production of fossil fuels is encouraged through subsidies or tax spending, and the destruction of nature does not show up in the economic accounts
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The climate emergency in Latin America and the Caribbean The path ahead – resignation or action?
Latin America: expected impact of climate change on biodiversity, 2050
IMPACTS
Increased vulnerability to extreme atmospheric events Biodiversity threatened Coral reefs and mangroves threatened Risk of desertification
The increase in greenhouse gas emissions resulting from global production and consumption decisions is already having a noticeable effect on the climate
iNCREASES IN ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEAN TEMPERATURES
Malaria Areas currently affected Possible extent by 2050 Precipitation Increase
CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION PATTERNS
Decrease Coasts threatened by sea level rise
REDUCTIONS IN THE VOLUMES OF ICE AND SNOW
Cities threatened by sea level rise Reduced water availability Negative effects on fisheries
RISING SEA LEVELS
Negative effects on agriculture Shrinking of glaciers Increased risk of forest fires Increased aridity and reduction of water resources Ecosystem changes Negative impacts on mountain regions
Holocene
Southern Hemisphere Ice Sheets
15
The economic and social problems in the Latin American and Caribbean region increase the gap to achieve sustainability.
Pleistocene
Pliocene
Miocene
Palaeocene
Social
Eocene
Anomalies in the Earth’s average temperature during the past 65 million years and potential geohistorical analogues for future climates up to 2300 CE relative to the period 1961–1990 (Degrees centigrade) Oligocene
Physical
CHANGES IN EXTREME WEATHER EVENT PATTERNS
Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheets
2200
Change in temperature
10
5
Last interglacial period
Mid-Pliocene
Mid-Holocene
Early Eocene
0
2100 2005
Historical Pre-industrial
-5
60
40 20 5 3 Millions of years before present
Zachos et al. (2008) NGRIP
back
1
300 100 20 10 Thousands of years before present
EPICA Dome C Marcott et al. (2013)
1950 2150 Year of common era (CE)
Lisiecki & Ramo (2004) HadCRUT4
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The climate emergency in Latin America and the Caribbean The path ahead – resignation or action?
IMPACTS The increase in greenhouse gas emissions resulting from global production and consumption decisions is already having a noticeable effect on the climate
The Caribbean: damage caused by disasters, 1990–2017 (Billions of 2017 dollars)
Impact of climate change on world gross domestic product (GDP), by temperature (Percentages of global GDP)
90
1 0
70 60
-1.5
-2
50
-3
40
Social
-0.6
-1
-4
30
Physical
0.4
80
20
-5
10
-6
0 1990
-4.4
-6.4
-7
1995
2000
2005
2010
< 1 °C
2015
Between 1 °C and 2 °C
Between 2 °C and 3 °C
Between 3 °C and 4 °C
> 4 °C
Temperature rise
Peru: percentage changes in income per crop (Percentages)
Structural gaps in infrastructure
A. Temperature rise of 1 °C
Social and distributive inequality The economic and social problems in the Latin American and Caribbean region increase the gap to achieve sustainability.
Heightened patterns of extreme weather events Disaster risk and its socio-economic consequences
Cassava Grape Banana Native potato Starchy maize Hard yellow maize Coffee Rice Alfalfa White potato -50
back
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
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The climate emergency in Latin America and the Caribbean The path ahead â&#x20AC;&#x201C; resignation or action?
ALTERNATIVES
Mitigation measures for technological innovation and risk management in different sectors
Mitigation
Technological advance
Quality of life
Economic dynamism
Greater equality: Better public transport or nature-based solutions in poor communities
Mixed CO2 emissions of conventional and electric vehicles over a distance of 220,000 km, 2015 (Grams per kilometre)
Latin America and the Caribbean (12 countries): average normalized cost of solar and wind energy, 2018 (Dollars per kWh) 300
0.20 0.18
250
0.16 0.14
200
0.12 0.10
150
0.08 0.06
100
0.04
Solar energy
back
Wind energy
High fossil fuel average
Uruguay
Dominican Rep.
Peru
Panama
Mexico
Honduras
Guatemala
Costa Rica
50 Ecuador
0
Chile
Adaptation
0.02 Brazil
Achieving this transformation far transcends specific sectoral or technological policies, requiring a worldwide economic shift towards a great environmental effort that must be the dominant purpose and goal of technology configurations and public policy tools, from the implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures in the different productive sectors.
MITIGATION BENEFITS
Argentina
The limit to carbon emissions or the carbon budget frames the window of opportunity that should determine the speed of change in such fundamental areas as energy production, transport and mobility, the way cities are built and the limits set on the transformation of nature.
Low fossil fuel average
0
Petrol
Diesel
Petrol hybrid
Green energy
Grey energy and green energy
Plug-in hybrid
CO 2 tank to wheel (TTW)
CO 2 well to wheel (WTW)
Green energy
Grey energy and green energy
Battery-powered electric
CO 2 WTW plus production
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The climate emergency in Latin America and the Caribbean The path ahead â&#x20AC;&#x201C; resignation or action?
ALTERNATIVES The limit to carbon emissions or the carbon budget frames the window of opportunity that should determine the speed of change in such fundamental areas as energy production, transport and mobility, the way cities are built and the limits set on the transformation of nature. Achieving this transformation far transcends specific sectoral or technological policies, requiring a worldwide economic shift towards a great environmental effort that must be the dominant purpose and goal of technology configurations and public policy tools, from the implementation of adaptation and mitigation measures in the different productive sectors.
Mitigation
AAdaptation daptation dilemmas
Beneficios sustantivos de la AdaptaciĂłn
a. People/territories
Well-being of current and future populations
b. Sectors
Strengthening early warning systems
The security of assets and the maintenance of ecosystem goods
For contribution to the economy For contribution to the foreign exchange
Making new infraestructure resilent Improving dryland agriculture crop production
Functions and services now and in the future
For contribution to employment
Protecting mangroves
Economic dynamism
Due to its effect on economic dynamism
Mixed
Benefits and costs of adaptation investments
Making water resources management more resilent
(Trillions of dollars) Benefit-cost ratio 1:1
Adaptation
3:1
5:1
7:1
9:1
11:1
13:1
15:1
17:1
-0.72
Soya-livestock-forest integration
Strengthening early warning systems
0.1
Making new infraestructure resilent
4.0
Improving dryland agriculture crop production
0.7
Protecting mangroves
1.0
Making water resources management more resilent
1.4
-9.2
Soya-livestock integration
Maize-livestock integration
-0.73
Degraded pasture
Total net benefits
back
(Millions of tons of CO2eq)
Net benefits
7.1
Reclaimed pasture
96.7
-123
Agricultural crops -150
16.4 -100
-50
0
50
100
150