The concept of ‘Futures Thinking’ “The only way you can predict the future is to build it." -Alan Kay This quote holds very much true today and its relevance only continues to grow with time. Todays’ world is made up of multiple diverse and complex ecosystems, communities, smart cities and towns that are constantly expanding and ever evolving – this evolution is so widespread and it is occurring at such a fast pace that it can be difficult to comprehend and plan for the road that lies ahead. This is where I would like to introduce to you the concept of ‘Futures Thinking’. In simple words, futures thinking can be described as foresight or strategic foresight – which is a method of employing ideas about the future in a systematic way to foresee and better prepare for change to come. Futures thinking can be thought of as an ideation plan for thinking about and examining the forces of change that are shaping the future, as well as the repercussions for making decisions today - not just about what to do, but also where and when to do it. Futures thinking is not a notion that pretends to be able to foretell the future, or that there is just one correct future or that the future is predetermined - rather it says that there are a variety of conceivable possibilities that can take place, and that the actions we make now can actively have an impact on the future. It is an approach that is innovative and explorative in nature that employs divergent thinking which seeks to find as many solutions as possible and also takes into consideration the uncertainty of the future. It's a mindset that differs from analytical thinking, which relies on convergent thinking to find the proper solution and eliminate uncertainty. It is utilised to inform policy formulation, as well as strategy development and design and planning. It can be used when working on complex problems with a lot of ambiguity and unpredictability and issues in which bias towards the present threatens to trump future interests. Futures thinking is still a relatively new concept, but is slowly gaining popularity all over the world. Futures thinking involves employing a variety of data sources like quantitative and qualitative trends, literature studies, and stakeholder insights, and engaging with a variety of stakeholders to seek for indicators of change that may shape a range of possible futures. According to the research paper, Six pillars: futures thinking for transforming (2008) authored by Dr. Sohail Inayatullah (UNESCO Chair in Futures Studies at IIUM, Malaysia) there are six fundamental principles of futures thinking: the used future; the disowned future; alternative futures; alignment; models of social change; and uses of the future. He further provides six basic questions which can be used as a framework to create the future that one desires. These questions provided by Dr Inayatullah summarizes the will; fear; hidden assumptions; alternative futures; preferred future; and the upcoming steps for the path ahead. The questions act as guiding principles which could help plan and strategize ways of reaching the goal of the future. Few of the questions include: How do you envision the future? Which future are you afraid of? What is your preferred future? What are some possibilities to the future you've anticipated or feared? and what are your techniques for getting there? Dr Inayatullah aslo describes the six pillars of futures studies which is used to create a foundation of futures thinking that is related to methodologies and tools. The six pillars are mapping, anticipation, timing, deepening, creating alternatives, and transforming. As a result, there are six core concepts, six questions, and six pillars for the future. Dr Inayatullah thus concludes that we can create the world that we want to live in by mapping the past, present, and the future, anticipating potential issues that may arise in the future and predict their possible repercussions; being sensitive to grand patterns of change; expanding our analysis to include worldviews, myths, and metaphors and creating alternative futures. References: • https://dpmc.govt.nz/our-programmes/policy-project/policy-methods-toolbox/futures-thinking • Six pillars: futures thinking for transforming, Sohail Inayatullah
By Kimberlee D'souza HCM (20-22) 1
