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Soyabean and palm oil export prices USDA FAS

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Soyabean and palm oil export prices

Soyabean oil prices spiked in March driven by ti ght vegetable oil supplies and expectati ons of higher demand for soyabean oil for biofuel use, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service April 2021 Oilseeds World Markets and Trade report. US soyabean export prices rose in March, approaching seven-year highs as conti nued late-season exports further ti ghtened stocks. Brazil prices fell slightly due to expectati ons of seasonally large new crops and higher exportable supplies. Argenti na prices fell as rains provided much needed moisture and slowed crop losses in droughthit regions. Palm oil prices rose slightly on strong March exports, tracking rival oils, the report added. Global rapeseed supply and demand The Internati onal Grains Council (ICG) has forecast that the world’s four largest rapeseed producers – Canada, the EU, China and India – will harvest 72.8M tonnes of rapeseed in the 2021/22 crop year compared with 70.4M tonnes in 2020/21. The IGC outlook is based on a 2% increase in planted area and yield increases, according to the Union for the Promoti on of Oil and Protein Plants (UFOP). Global rapeseed consumpti on is forecast to fall slightly to 72.9M tonnes in 2021/22 due to strong demand in Asia and Europe. Prospects for a bounceback in global rapeseed supply in 2021/22 appeared to be poor in light of expected low stocks and moderate growth in producti on. Ending stocks for 2021/22 were forecast at In 2016 and 2017 biodiesel use reacted to a widening CPO-Brent premium. This time, it did not, and La Niña caused stocks to plunge, pushing the premium through the roof. Looking ahead, Indonesian growth will raise stocks slowly, lowering the premium gradually to more normal levels. Stocks should recover slowly, cutting the CPO-Brent spread IGC, Agrarmarkt Informati ons-Gesellschaft (mbH)Global rapeseed supply and demand (million tonnes) . 700 3,300 the previous year’s level of 3.6M tonnes.

EU CPO premium vs Brent, US$/tonne 600

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0 3,000

2,700

2,400

2,100

1,800

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1,200 MPOB palm oil stocks, '000 tonnes

-100

Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 900

EU CPO Premium over Brent Average Premium MPOB Stocks

© 2021 LMC International. All rights reserved. POC Conference, March 2021 EU CPO price premium over Brent crude oil LMC Internati onal, Virtual POC March 2021

Prices of selected oils (US$/tonne) Mintec

Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 Soyabean 946.9 1,001.7 1,053.2 1,075.1 1,220.0 1,358.2 Crude palm 855.6 918.4 915.9 974.0 1,045.5 987.2 Palm olein 811.8 873.6 875.1 911.6 985.5 913.5

Coconut 1,396.2 1,491.5 1,458.2 1,435.0 1,528.0 1,564.0 Rapeseed 988.0 1,040.0 1,092.5 1,131.5 1,218.2 1,329.0 Sunfl ower 1,117.7 1,185.1 1,298.5 1,385.9 1,637.6 1,585.2 Palm kernel 1,104.9 1,246.5 1,345.2 1,335.7 1,432.2 1,430.4 Average 1,032.0 1,108.0 1,148.0 1,178.0 1,296.0 1,310.0 Index 244.0 263.0 272.0 279.0 307.0 310.0 EU CPO price premium vs Brent crude oil

The EU crude palm oil (CPO) price premium vs Brent crude oil hit highs in January as the La Niña weather phenomenum pulled vegetable oil supply below expectati ons and caused stocks to plunge, LMC Internati onal chairman James Fry told the Virtual Price Outlook Conference (POC) in March. Looking ahead, Indonesian palm oil producti on growth would raise stocks slowly, lowering the premium gradually to more normal levels, he said.

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The Internati onal Grains Council is an intergovernmental organisati on focused on internati onal cooperati on in grains trade. The Union for the Promoti on of Oil and Protein Plants represents companies and associati ons involved in the producti on, processing and marketi ng of oil and protein plants in Germany. LMC Internati onal, UK is an independent consulti ng fi rm specialising in global agricultural commoditi es and agribusiness.

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