International Economics Theory and Policy, Global Edition, 12th edition By Paul R Krugman Solution M by Ace Test Banks

Instructor’s Resource Manual for International Economics: Theory and Policy Revised by Hisham Foad & Mike Casey

International Economics: Theory and Policy Twelfth Edition, Global Edition

Paul R. Krugman Maurice Obstfeld Marc J. Melitz

Table of Contents Chapter 1

Introduction .......................................................................................................... 1

Chapter 2

World Trade: An Overview .................................................................................. 3

Chapter 3

Labor Productivity and Comparative Advantage: The Ricardian Model ............. 8

Chapter 4

Specific Factors and Income Distribution .......................................................... 15

Chapter 5

Resources and Trade: The Heckscher-Ohlin Model .......................................... 24

Chapter 6

The Standard Trade Model ................................................................................. 32

Chapter 7

External Economies of Scale and the International Location of Production ...... 40

Chapter 8

Firms in the Global Economy: Export and Foreign Sourcing Decisions and Multinational Enterprises ............................................................................ 46

Chapter 9

The Instruments of Trade Policy ........................................................................ 55

Chapter 10

The Political Economy of Trade Policy ............................................................. 63

Chapter 11

Trade Policy in Developing Countries ............................................................... 72

Chapter 12

Controversies in Trade Policy ............................................................................ 76

Chapter 13

National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments .............................. 82

Chapter 14

Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Asset Approach ......... 91

Chapter 15

Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates .................................................... 103

Chapter 16

Price Levels and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run ..................................... 113

Chapter 17

Output and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run .............................................. 122

Chapter 18

Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention ............................. 134

Chapter 19

International Monetary Systems: A Historical Overview ................................ 146

Chapter 20

Financial Globalization: Opportunity and Crisis .............................................. 157

Chapter 21

Optimum Currency Areas and the Euro ........................................................... 166

Chapter 22

Developing Countries: Growth, Crisis, and Reform ........................................ 176

Chapter 1 Introduction

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Chapter Organization

What Is International Economics About? The Gains from Trade. The Pattern of Trade. How Much Trade? Balance of Payments. Exchange Rate Determination. International Policy Coordination. The International Capital Market. International Economics: Trade and Money

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Chapter Overview

The intent of this chapter is to provide both an overview of the subject matter of international economics and to provide a guide to the organization of the text. It is relatively easy for an instructor to motivate the study of international trade and finance. The front pages of newspapers, the covers of magazines, and the lead reports on television news broadcasts herald the interdependence of the U.S. economy with the rest of the world. This interdependence may also be recognized by students through their purchases of imports of all sorts of goods, their personal observations of the effects of dislocations due to international competition, and their experience through travel abroad. The study of the theory of international economics generates an understanding of many key events that shape our domestic and international environment. In recent history, these events include the causes and .

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consequences of the large current account deficits of the United States; the dramatic appreciation of the dollar during the first half of the 1980s followed by its rapid depreciation in the second half of the 1980s; the Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s and the Mexican crisis in late 1994; and the increased pressures for industry protection against foreign competition broadly voiced in the late 1980s and more vocally espoused in the first half of the 1990s. The financial crisis that began in East Asia in 1997 and spread to many countries around the globe and the Economic and Monetary Union in Europe highlight the way in which various national economies are linked and how important it is for us to understand these connections. These global linkages have been highlighted yet again with how a bust in the American housing market rapidly spread throughout the world, turning into a global financial crisis through linkages across international capital markets. At the same time, protests at global economic meetings and a rising wave of protectionist rhetoric have highlighted opposition to globalization as exemplified by both Brexit and the recent U.S. presidential campaign. The text material will enable students to understand the economic context in which such events occur. Chapter 1 of the text presents data demonstrating the growth in trade and the increasing importance of international economics. This chapter also highlights and briefly discusses seven themes that arise throughout the book. These themes are (1) the gains from trade, (2) the pattern of trade, (3) protectionism, (4) the balance of payments, (5) exchange rate determination, (6) international policy coordination, and (7) the international capital market. Students will recognize that many of the central policy debates occurring today come under the rubric of one of these themes. Indeed, it is often a fruitful heuristic to use current events to illustrate the force of the key themes and arguments that are presented throughout the text.

Chapter 2 World Trade: An Overview

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Chapter Organization

Who Trades with Whom? Size Matters: The Gravity Model. Using the Gravity Model: Looking for Anomalies. Impediments to Trade: Distance, Barriers, and Borders. The Changing Pattern of World Trade. Has the World Gotten Smaller? What Do We Trade? Service Offshoring. Do Old Rules Still Apply?

Summary ■

Chapter Overview

Before entering into a series of theoretical models that explain why countries trade across borders and the benefits of this trade (Chapters 3–12), Chapter 2 considers the pattern of world trade that we observe today. The core idea of the chapter is the empirical model known as the gravity model. The gravity model is based on the observations that (1) countries tend to trade with nearby economies and (2) trade is proportional to country size. The model is called the gravity model, as it is similar in form to the physics equation that describes the pull of one body on another as proportional to their size and distance. The basic form of the gravity equation is Tij = A × Yi × Yj/Dij. The logic supporting this equation is that

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large countries have large incomes to spend on imports and produce a large quantity of goods to sell as exports. This means that the larger that either trade partner is, the larger the volume of trade between them. At the same time, the distance between two trade partners can substitute for the transport costs that they face as well as proxy for more intangible aspects of a trading relationship such as the ease of contact for firms. This model can be used to estimate the predicted trade between two countries and look for anomalies in trade patterns. The text shows an example where the gravity model can be used to demonstrate the importance of national borders in determining trade flows. According to many estimates, the border between the United States and Canada has the impact on trade equivalent to roughly 1,500–2,500 miles of distance. Other factors such as tariffs, trade agreements, and common language can all affect trade and can be incorporated into the gravity model. The chapter also considers the way trade has evolved over time. Although people often feel that globalization in the modern era is unprecedented, in fact, we are in the midst of the second great wave of globalization. From the end of the 19th century to World War I, the economies of different countries were quite connected, with trade as a share of GDP higher in 1910 than in 1960. Only recently have trade levels surpassed pre– World War I trade. The nature of trade has changed, though. The majority of trade is in manufactured goods with agriculture and mineral products making up around 25% of world trade. Even developing countries now primarily export manufactures. A century ago, more trade was in primary commodities as nations tended to trade for things that literally could not be grown or found at home. Today, the motivations for trade are varied, and the products we trade are increasingly diverse. Despite increased complexity in modern international trade, the fundamental principles explaining trade at the dawn of the global era still apply today. The chapter concludes by focusing on one particular expansion of what is “tradable”—the increase in services trade. Modern information technology has expanded greatly what can be traded as the person staffing a call center, doing your accounting, or reading your X-ray can literally be halfway around the world. Although service outsourcing is still relatively rare, the potential for a large increase in service outsourcing is an important part of how trade will evolve in the coming decades. The next few chapters will explain the theory of why nations trade.

■ 1.

Answers to Textbook Problems

According to the gravity model, trade exchanges are positively affected by the size of the trading economies and are negatively affected by their distance. Other conditions being the same, the two countries should trade more with their neighbors than with the countries far away from them. When trade is either much more or less than a gravity model predicts, economists search for the explanation, such as role of transport costs and geography in determining the volume of trade.

Chapter 2 World Trade: An Overview

According to the gravity model, with other things being equal, the value of trade between any two countries is proportional to the product of the two countries’ GDPs and diminishes with the distance between the two countries. In the given situation, Ireland’s trade with the United States lies in the cultural affinities because the same language is spoken and there are a large number of Irish immigrants in the United States. Ireland also hosts many US-based corporations. Traditionally, Belgium has been the point of entry to much of northwestern Europe’s trade with the United States; also Antwerp in Belgium ranks as the second most important port in Europe, as measured by the tonnage handled. Thus, the large trade suggests that transport costs and geography are important factors in explaining Belgium’s volume of trade with the United States.

No, if every country’s GDP were to double, world trade would not quadruple. Consider a simple example with only two countries: A and B. Let country A have a GDP of $6 trillion and B have a GDP of $4 trillion. Furthermore, the share of world spending on each country’s production is proportional to each country’s share of world GDP (stated differently, the exponents on GDP in Equation 2-2, a and b, are both equal to 1). Thus, our example is characterized by the table below: Country A

GDP Share of World Spending $6 trillion 60%

B $4 trillion 40% Now let us compute world trade flows in this example. Country A has an income of $6 trillion and spends 40% of that income on country B’s production (spending 60% on their own production). Thus, exports from country B to country A are equal to $6 trillion × 40% = $2.4 trillion. Country B has an income of $4 trillion and spends 60% of this on country A’s production. Thus, exports from country A to country B are equal to $4 trillion × 60% = $2.4 trillion. Total world trade in this simple model is $2.4 + $2.4 = $4.8 trillion. What happens if we double GDP in both countries? Now GDP in country A is $12 trillion, and GDP in country B is $8 trillion. However, the share of world income (and spending) in each country has not changed. Thus, country A will still spend 40% of its income on country B products, and country B will still spend 60% of its income on country A products. Exports from country B to country A are equal to $12 trillion × 40% = $4.8 trillion. Exports from country A to country B are $8 trillion × 60% = $4.8 trillion. Total trade is now equal to $4.8 + $4.8 = $9.6 trillion. Looking at trade before and after the doubling of GDP, we see that total trade actually doubled, not quadrupled. 4.

The gravity model of trade states that the value of trade between two countries is proportional to each country’s GDP. As GDP in East Asian countries has increased relative to other countries, we should

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expect trade flows involving East Asian countries to increase. The table below gives real GDP (adjusted for inflation) for several regions in 1980, 2000, and 2019 from the World Bank 1980

2000

2019

East Asia

$4.6 trillion (16.5%)

$11.0 trillion (22.0%)

$25.0 trillion (29.4%)

Europe and C. Asia

$11.6 trillion (41.6%)

$17.5 trillion (35.0%)

$24.5 trillion (28.9%)

Latin America

$2.5 trillion (8.9%)

$3.9 trillion (7.8%)

$6.2 trillion (7.3%)

North America

$7.3 trillion (26.1%)

$13.8 trillion (27.7%)

$20.2 trillion (23.9%)

East Asia’s share of world GDP has increased from 16.5% in 1980 to 29.4% in 2019. Over this same period, Europe, Latin America, and North America’s shares of world GDP have declined. The gravity model of trade would thus predict that not only will we observe an increase in intra East Asian trade, but East Asian have also become larger trade partners for non-East Asian countries. Intuitively, as countries become wealthier and the consumption demands of their populations rise, imports into these countries will increase. Thus, while many of these countries used to focus their exports to other rich nations, over time they became part of the rich nation club and thus were targets for one another’s exports. For example, when South Korea and Taiwan were both small, the product of their GDPs was quite small, meaning that despite their proximity, there was little trade between them. Now that they have both grown considerably, their GDPs predict a considerable amount of trade between them. 5.

As the chapter discusses, a century ago much of world trade was in commodities, whose production is largely determined by climate or geography. The United Kingdom imported goods that it could not make itself such as cotton or rubber from countries in the Western Hemisphere or Asia. As the United Kingdom’s climate and natural resource endowments were fairly similar to those of the rest of Europe, it had less of a need to import from other European countries since they were not producing the commodities it wanted to import from Asia or the Americas. The Industrial Revolution saw significant growth in technology and the diversity of goods being produced. Trade shifted away from primarily being in commodities and toward more manufactured goods. These manufactured goods were less dependent on geographic factors and more affected by income and skill levels in the countries they were produced in. More recently, there has been increased trade in services, which again are less influenced by geography and more by skill levels and local institutions. The shift toward more trade with other European countries reflects the shifting composition of goods being traded away from commodities whose production was determined by geographic factors

Chapter 2 World Trade: An Overview

and toward manufactures and services that are more influenced by labor and capital characteristics in a country. This has also been influenced by Britain’s (until recently!) membership in the European Union, a free trade region in Europe.

Chapter 3 Labor Productivity and Comparative Advantage: The Ricardian Model

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Chapter Organization

The Concept of Comparative Advantage. A One-Factor Economy. Production Possibilities Relative Prices and Supply. Trade in a One-Factor World. Determining the Relative Price after Trade. Box: Comparative Advantage in Practice: The Case of Usain Bolt. The Gains from Trade. A Note on Relative Wages. Box: Economic Isolation and Autarky Over Time and Space. Misconceptions about Comparative Advantage. Productivity and Competitiveness. Box: Do Wages Reflect Productivity? The Pauper Labor Argument. Exploitation. Comparative Advantage with Many Goods. Setting Up the Model.

Chapter 3

Labor Productivity and Comparative Advantage: The Ricardian Model

Relative Wages and Specialization. Determining the Relative Wage in the Multigood Model. Adding Transport Costs and Nontraded Goods. Empirical Evidence on the Ricardian Model.

Summary ■

Chapter Overview

The Ricardian model provides an introduction to international trade theory. This most basic model of trade involves two countries, two goods, and one factor of production, labor. Differences in relative labor productivity across countries give rise to international trade. This Ricardian model, simple as it is, generates important insights concerning comparative advantage and the gains from trade. These insights are necessary foundations for the more complex models presented in later chapters. The text exposition begins with the examination of the production possibility frontier and the relative prices of goods for one country. The production possibility frontier is linear because of the assumption of constant returns to scale for labor, the sole factor of production. The opportunity cost of one good in terms of the other equals the price ratio because prices equal costs, costs equal unit labor requirements times wages, and wages are equal in each industry. After defining these concepts for a single country, a second country is introduced that has different relative unit labor requirements. Supply and demand curves relative to general equilibrium are developed. This analysis demonstrates that at least one country will specialize in production. The gains from trade are then demonstrated with a graph and a numerical example. The intuition of indirect production, that is “producing” a good by producing the good for which a country enjoys a comparative advantage and then trading for the other good, is an appealing concept to emphasize when presenting the gains from trade argument. Students are able to apply the Ricardian theory of comparative advantage to analyze three misconceptions about the advantages of free trade. Each of the three “myths” represents a common argument against free trade, and the flaws of each can be demonstrated in the context of examples already developed in the chapter. The first myth is that trade is driven by absolute advantage. This chapter clearly demonstrates that it is comparative advantage that matters. The second is the pauper labor argument, with poor countries having an “unfair advantage” in trade given low-cost labor. The chapter highlights that the gains from trade are irrelevant to the source of comparative advantage. Finally, the myth of workers in poor countries being exploited by trade

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is exposed by asking whether these workers would be better off without trade. As the numerical example in this chapter demonstrates, the answer is a resounding “no.” Although the initial intuitions are developed in the context of a two-good model, it is straightforward to extend the model to describe trade patterns when there are N goods. Comparative advantage in this model is driven by relative wages between countries rather than relative prices. However, the implication that countries will export goods for which they have the lowest opportunity cost remains. The N-good model is used to discuss the role that transport costs play in making some goods nontraded. As transport costs rise, the gains from trade decrease, and in some cases they are completely eliminated. The chapter ends with a discussion of empirical evidence of the Ricardian model. The authors are careful to point out that, while the rather simplified model cannot explain all trade patterns, the basic prediction that countries tend to export goods for which they have a comparative advantage (high relative productivity) has been confirmed by a number of studies.

■ 1.

Answers to Textbook Problems The production possibility curve is a straight line that intercepts the apple axis at 400 (1,200/3) and the banana axis at 600 (1,200/2).

b. The opportunity cost of apples in terms of bananas is 3/2. It takes 3 units of labor to harvest an apple but only 2 units of labor to harvest a banana. If one forgoes harvesting an apple, this frees up 3 units of labor. These 3 units of labor could then be used to harvest 1.5 bananas.

Chapter 3

Labor Productivity and Comparative Advantage: The Ricardian Model

In the absence of trade, we know that the relative price of apples (pA) over the relative price of bananas (pB) is equal to the ratio of the unit labor requirements for apples (aA) and bananas (aB). In 𝑝 𝑝𝐵

other words, 𝐴 = 2.

𝑎𝐴 3 = = 1.5. In the absence of trade, one apple will sell for 1.5 bananas. 𝑎𝐵 2

The production possibility curve is linear, with the intercept on the apple axis equal to 160 (800/5) and the intercept on the banana axis equal to 800 (800/1).

b. The world relative supply curve is constructed by determining the supply of apples relative to the supply of bananas at each relative price. The lowest relative price at which apples are harvested is 3 apples per 2 bananas. The relative supply curve is flat at this price. The maximum number of apples supplied at the price of 3/2 is 400 supplied by Home while, at this price, foreign harvests 800 bananas and no apples, giving a maximum relative supply at this price of 1/2. This relative supply holds for any price between 3/2 and 5. At the price of 5, both countries would harvest apples. The relative supply curve is again flat at 5. Thus, the relative supply curve is step shaped, flat at the price 3/2 from the relative supply of 0 to 1/2, vertical at the relative quantity 1/2 rising from 3/2 to 5, and then flat again from 1/2 to infinity.

Krugman/Obstfeld/Melitz • International Economics: Theory & Policy, 12e, Global Edition

The relative demand curve includes the points (1/5, 5), (1/2, 2), (2/3, 3/2), (1, 1), (2, 1/2).

b. The equilibrium relative price of apples is found at the intersection of the relative demand and relative supply curves. This is the point (1/2, 2), where the relative demand curve intersects the vertical section of the relative supply curve. Thus, the equilibrium relative price is 2.

Home produces only apples, Foreign produces only bananas, and each country trades some of its product for the product of the other country.

d. In the absence of trade, Home could gain 3 bananas by forgoing 2 apples, and Foreign could gain by 1 apple forgoing 5 bananas. Trade allows each country to trade 2 bananas for 1 apple. Home

Chapter 3

Labor Productivity and Comparative Advantage: The Ricardian Model

could then gain 4 bananas by forgoing 2 apples, while Foreign could gain 1 apple by forgoing only 2 bananas. Each country is better off with trade. 4.

For India, the cost of producing one meter of cloth amounts to 2 kg of Paddy (i.e. 10/5). The opportunity cost of cloth in India is 10/5 (the price of rice). In other words, India has to sacrifice 2 kg of rice to produce one meter of cloth. Similarly, for Thailand the opportunity cost of producing one meter of cloth is 2.5 kg of Paddy. This means that Thailand has to sacrifice 2.5 kg of rice to produce one meter of cloth. This means that India has low opportunity cost in production of paddy and Thailand has low opportunity cost in cloth production. Hence, it can be said that Thailand should specialize in cloth and India should specialize in rice production. If trade between the two countries takes place, Thailand should export cloth to India, and India should export rice to Thailand.

b. Neither have the absolute advantage in producing both hamburgers and T-shirts. Mike has an absolute advantage in making hamburgers and Johnson in making T-shirts. c.

The opportunity cost of making T-shirts for Mike is 10/3 = 3.33 hamburgers. Similarly, the opportunity cost of making T-shirts for Johnson is 7/4 = 1.75 hamburgers. Hence, the opportunity cost of making T-shirts is higher for Mike.

d. The opportunity cost of making a hamburger for mike is 3/10 = 0.30 T-shirts. Similarly, the opportunity cost of making a hamburger for Johnson is 4/7 = 0.57 T-shirts. Since Mike sacrifices less T-shirts to make a hamburger, Mike has an absolute advantage in the production of hamburgers. 6.

This statement fails to connect wages and productivity. Though wages in China are lower than they are in the United States, the reason for this is that productivity is significantly lower in most industries in China. The diagram in the box titled “Do Wages Reflect Productivity?” shows that Chinese productivity is less than 10% that of the United States, corresponding to much lower wages in China. Thus, even though wages are higher in the United States than they are in China, it is not clear that it is

Krugman/Obstfeld/Melitz • International Economics: Theory & Policy, 12e, Global Edition

cheaper to produce all goods in China. If Chinese workers have 10% as much productivity as American workers, then it would only be cheaper to produce in China if Chinese wages are no more than 10% as large as American wages (assuming labor is the only input into production). While this may hold for some goods (those exported to the U.S.), it does not for other goods (those exported from the U.S. to China). 7.

In the given situation, we don’t have enough information to determine the comparative advantage in production. It is not enough to compare the minimum wages to predict how the labor’s productivity can be a comparative advantage. China might have an absolute advantage in this specific comparison since the task of setting minimum wages belongs to local governments and they can be higher or lower, in accordance with their interests in gains. However, for determining a comparative advantage, the industry ratios are also required. The competitive advantage of any industry depends on both the relative productivities of the industries and the relative wages across industries.

The purchasing power of the income is set by the minimum wage standards. The living standards are also set by the minimum wage. If the government considers that the minimum wage should be increased, this would affect the purchasing power and living standards.

Every country has different natural resources. There would be no need for specialization in a product and engaging in trade if resources were mobile. However, in most cases, human and physical resources are somewhat immobile. In such a situation, the cost differences and comparative advantage in production arises due to the different resources utilized. A country abundant in one resource uses it the most to produce a particular product. It then engages in international trade by exporting that product to the world. Hence, international trade occurs through the exchange of goods rather than the exchange of resources.

10.

The world relative supply curve in this case consists of a step function, with as many “steps” (horizontal portions) as there are countries with different unit labor requirement ratios. Any countries to the left of the intersection of the relative demand and relative supply curves export the good in which they have a comparative advantage relative to any country to the right of the intersection (the opposite holds for the good in the denominator of relative price/quantity). If the intersection occurs in a horizontal portion, then the country with that price ratio produces both goods.

Chapter 4 Specific Factors and Income Distribution

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Chapter Organization

The Specific Factors Model. Box: What Is a Specific Factor? Assumptions of the Model. Production Possibilities. Prices, Wages, and Labor Allocation. Relative Prices and the Distribution of Income International Trade in the Specific Factors Model. Income Distribution and the Gains from Trade. The Political Economy of Trade: A Preliminary View. The Politics of Trade Protection Trade and Unemployment Case Study: U.S. Manufacturing Employment and Chinese Import Competition Box: The Trump Trade War International Labor Mobility. Case Study: Wage and Social Benefits Convergence: Migrant Mobility in China. Case Study: Immigration and the U.S. Economy.

Summary APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 4: Further Details on Specific Factors.

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Marginal and Total Product Relative Prices and the Distribution of Income

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Chapter Overview

In Chapter 3, the Ricardian model of trade was introduced with labor as the single factor of production exhibiting constant returns to scale. Although informative, this model fails to highlight the observed opposition to free trade. In this chapter, the Specific Factors model is presented to gain a better understanding of the distributional effects of trade. After trade, the exporting industry expands, while the import competing industry shrinks. As a result, the factor specific to the exporting industry gains from trade, while the factor specific to the import competing industry loses from trade. However, the aggregate gains from trade are greater than the losses. The Specific Factors model assumes that there is one factor that is mobile between sectors (commonly thought of as labor) and production factors that are specific to each sector. The chapter begins with a simple economy producing two goods: cloth and food. Cloth is produced using labor and its specific factor, capital. Food is produced using labor and its specific factor, land. Given that capital and labor are specific to their respective industries, the mix of goods produced by a country is determined by share of labor employed in each industry. The key difference between the Ricardian model and the Specific Factors model is that in the latter, there are diminishing returns to labor. For example, production of food will increase as labor is added, but given a fixed amount of land, each additional worker will add less and less to food production. As we assume that labor is perfectly mobile between industries, the wage rate must be identical between industries. With competitive labor markets, the wage must be equal to the price of each good times the marginal product of labor in that sector. We can use the common wage rate to show that the economy will produce a mix of goods such that the relative price of one good in terms of the other is equal to the relative cost of that good in terms of the other. Thus, an increase in the relative price of one good will cause the economy to shift its production toward that good. With international trade, the country will export the good whose relative price is below the world relative price. The world relative price may differ from the domestic price before trade for two reasons. First, as in the Ricardian model, countries differ in their production technologies. Second, countries differ in terms of their endowments of the factors specific to each industry. After trade, the domestic relative price will equal the world relative price. As a result, the relative price in the exporting sector will rise, and the relative price

Chapter 4 Specific Factors and Income Distribution

in the import competing sector will fall. This will lead to an expansion in the export sector and a contraction of the import competing sector. Suppose that after trade, the relative price of cloth increases by 10%. As a result, the country will increase production of cloth. This will lead to a less than 10% increase in the wage rate because some workers will move from the food to the cloth industry. The real wage paid to workers in terms of cloth (w/PC) will fall, while the real wage paid in terms of food (w/PF) will rise. The net welfare effect for labor is ambiguous and depends on relative preferences for cloth and food. Owners of capital will unambiguously gain because they pay their workers a lower real wage, while owners of land will unambiguously lose as they now face higher costs. Thus, trade benefits the factor specific to the exporting sector, hurts the factor specific to the import competing sector, and has ambiguous effects on the mobile factor. Despite these asymmetric effects of trade, the overall effect of trade is a net gain. Stated differently, it is theoretically possible to redistribute the gains from trade to those who were hurt by trade and make everyone better off than they were before trade. Given these positive net welfare effects, why is there such opposition to free trade? To answer this question, the chapter looks at the political economy of protectionism. The basic intuition is that the though the total gains exceed the losses from trade, the losses from trade tend to be concentrated, while the gains are diffused. Import tariffs on sugar in the United States are used to illustrate this dynamic. It is estimated that sugar tariffs cost consumers $3.5 billion in 2015, representing $30 per household in the U.S. While the aggregate loss is significant, the individual losses are spread out to the point where they are not large enough to induce people to lobby for an end to these tariffs. However, the gains from protectionism are concentrated among a small number of sugar producers, who are able to effectively coordinate and lobby for continued protection. When the losses from trade are concentrated among politically influential groups, import tariffs are likely to be seen. Although the losers from trade are often able to successfully lobby for protectionism, the chapter highlights three reasons why this is an inefficient method of limiting the losses from trade. First, the actual impact of trade on unemployment is fairly low, with estimates of only 2.5% of unemployment directly attributable to international trade. This fact is highlighted in a case study on the decline in U.S. manufacturing employment, which is often blamed on competition from China. Manufacturing employment in the U.S. had been on a downward trend long before trade with China took off in the mid-1990s. In fact, the trend in manufacturing employment in the U.S. is relatively unaffected by trade with China, suggesting that factors other than trade (at least with China) are responsible. Second, the losses from trade are driven by one industry expanding at the expense of another. This phenomenon is not specific to international trade and is also seen with changing preferences or new technology. Why should policy be singled out to protect people hurt by trade and not for

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those hurt by these other trends? Finally, it is more efficient to help those hurt by trade—by redistributing the gains from trade in the form of safety nets for those temporarily unemployed and worker retraining programs to ease the transition from import competing to export sectors—than it is to limit trade to protect existing jobs. This is illustrated by the employment effects of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. While American firms and workers in protected industries like steel and aluminum were helped by these tariffs, downstream industries using protected inputs and industries suffering from retaliatory tariffs imposed by other countries were hurt. The empirical evidence suggests that the negative employment effects in downstream and exporting industries were significantly higher than the gains in protected industries. For example, employment in downstream industries is about 80 times higher than that in primary industries like aluminum and steel. Retaliatory tariffs were estimated to lead to three times as many job losses as jobs gained from the Trump administration’s initial tariffs. Finally, the chapter uses the framework of the Specific Factors model to analyze the distributional effects of international labor migration. With free migration of labor across borders, wages must equalize among countries. Workers will migrate from low-wage countries to high-wage countries. As a result, wages in the low-wage countries will rise, and those in the high-wage countries will fall. Though the net effect of free migration is positive, there will be both winners and losers from migration. Workers who stayed behind in the low-wage country will benefit, as will owners of capital in the high-wage country. Workers in the highwage country will be hurt, as will owners of capital in the low-wage country. We also need to consider the education levels of migrants relative to the country they move to. Immigrants to the United States, for example, tend to be concentrated in the lowest educational groups. Thus, migration is likely to only have negative effects on the wages of the least educated Americans while raising the wages of those with more education.

■ 1.

Answers to Textbook Problems

A country would opt for international trade even though the workers in the import competitive sector face the risk of losing their jobs. This is mainly because of the gains that the consumer realizes if more imports were allowed and the associated increase in employment in the export sectors. Under perfect labor mobility, if the real wage in Thailand is higher than Bangladesh, then labor movement from Bangladesh to Thailand takes place. This reduces the labor force and raises the wage rates in Bangladesh. Similarly, a movement in labor to Thailand increases the labor force and reduces the real wage rate in Thailand. The movement between two countries will continue until the wages in these two countries are equalized.

Chapter 4 Specific Factors and Income Distribution

The curve in the PPF reflects diminishing returns to labor. As production of Q 1 increases, the opportunity cost of producing an additional unit of Q1 will rise. Basically, as you increase the number of workers producing Q1 with a fixed supply of capital, each additional worker will contribute less to the production of Q1 and represents an increasingly large loss of potential production of Q2. 3.

Draw the marginal product of labor times the price for each sector given that the total labor allocated between these sectors must sum to 100. Thus, if there are 10 workers employed in Sector 1, then there are 90 workers employed in Sector 2. If there are 50 workers employed in Sector 1, then there are 50 workers employed in Sector 2. For simplicity, define P1 = 1 and P2 = 2 (it does

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not matter what the actual prices are in determining the allocation of labor, only that the relative price P2/P1 = 2).

In competitive labor markets, the wage is equal to price times the marginal product of labor. With mobile labor between sectors, the wage rate must be equal between sectors. Thus, the equilibrium wage is determined by the intersection of the two P × MPL curves. Looking at the diagram above, it appears that this occurs at a wage rate of 1 and a labor supply of 30 workers in Sector 1 (70 workers in Sector 2). b. From part (a), we know that 30 units of labor are employed in Sector 1 and 70 units of labor are employed in Sector 2. Looking at the table in Question 2, we see that these labor allocations will produce 48.6 units of good 1 and 86.7 units of good 2. At this production point (Q1 = 48.6, Q2 = 86.7), the slope of the PPF must be equal to −P1/P2, which is −½. Looking at the PPF in Question 2a, we see that it is roughly equal to −½. c.

If the relative price of good 2 falls to 1.3, we simply need to redraw the P × MPL diagram with P1 = 1 and P2 = 1.3.

Chapter 4 Specific Factors and Income Distribution

The decrease in the price of good 2 leads to an increase in the share of labor accruing to Sector 1. Now, the two sectors have equal wages (P × MPL) when there are 50 workers employed in both sectors. Looking at the table in Question 2, we see that with 50 workers employed in both Sectors 1 and 2, there will be production of Q1 = 66 and Q2 = 75.8. The PPF at the production point Q1 = 66, Q2 = 75.78 must have a slope of P1/P2 = −1/1.3 = −0.77. d. The decrease in the relative price of good 2 led to an increase in production of good 1 and a decrease in the production of good 2. The expansion of Sector 1 increases the income of the factor specific to Sector 1 (capital). The contraction of Sector 2 decreases the income of the factor specific to Sector 2 (land). 4.

The increase in the capital stock in Home will increase the possible production of good 1, but have no effect on the production of good 2 because good 2 does not use capital in production. As a result, the PPF shifts out to the right, representing the greater quantity of good 1 that Home can now produce.

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b. Given the increased production possibility for Home, the relative supply of home (defined as Q1/Q2) is further to the right than the relative supply for Foreign. As a result, the relative price of good 1 is lower in Home than it is in Foreign. c.

If both countries open to trade, Home will export good 1, and Foreign will export good 2.

d. Owners of capital in Home and owners of land in Foreign will benefit from trade, while owners of land in Home and owners of capital in Foreign will be hurt. The effects on labor will be ambiguous because the real wage in terms of good 1 will fall (rise) in Home (Foreign) and the real wage in terms of good 2 will rise (fall) in Home (Foreign). The net welfare effect for labor will depend on preferences in each country. For example, if labor in Home consumes relatively more of good 2, they will gain from trade. If labor in Home consumes relatively more of good 1, they will lose from trade. 5.

The real wage in Home is 10, while real wage in Foreign is 18. If there is free movement of labor, then workers will migrate from Home to Foreign until the real wage is equal in each country. If 4 workers move from Home to Foreign, then there will be 7 workers employed in each country, earning a real wage of 14 in each country. We can find total production by adding up the marginal product of each worker. After trade, total production is 20 + 19 + 18 + 17 + 16 + 15 + 14 = 119 in each country for total world production of 238. Before trade, production in Home was 20 + 19 + 18 = 57. Production in Foreign was 20 + 19 + … + 10 = 165. Total world production before trade was 57 + 165 = 222. Thus, trade and migration increased total output by 16. Workers in Home benefit from migration, while workers in Foreign are hurt. Landowners in Home are hurt by migration (their costs rise), while landowners in Foreign benefit.

Chapter 4 Specific Factors and Income Distribution

If only 2 workers can move from Home to Foreign, there will be a real wage of 12 in Home and a real wage of 16 in Foreign. a.

Workers in Foreign are hurt as their wage falls from 18 to 16.

b. Landowners in Foreign benefit as their costs fall by 2 for each worker employed. c.

Workers who stay at home benefit as their wage rises from 10 to 12.

d. Landowners in Home are hurt as their costs rise by 2 for each worker employed. e. 7.

The workers who do move benefit by seeing their wages rise from 10 to 16.

By restricting immigration, the drop in wages in the high-wage country is not as high as it would have been had migration been open. By the same token, the increase in wages in the low-wage country is not as large as it would have been with open migration. Thus, migration restrictions increase the net gain from migrating to those lucky few who are able to move. We see this illustrated in questions 5 and 6. With open borders (question 5), migrants from Home increased their real wages from 10 to 14 by migrating to Foreign. With restricted immigration (question 6), migrants from Home increased their real wages from 10 to 16 by migrating to foreign. Though there are fewer migrants in the latter scenario, those who do migrate end up better off.

Chapter 5 Resources and Trade: The Heckscher-Ohlin Model

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Chapter Organization

Model of a Two-Factor Economy. Prices and Production. Choosing the Mix of Inputs. Factor Prices and Goods Prices. Resources and Output. Effects of International Trade between Two-Factor Economies. Relative Prices and the Pattern of Trade. Trade and the Distribution of Income. Case Study: North–South Trade and Income Inequality. Skill-Biased Technological Change and Income Inequality. Box: The Declining Labor Share of Income and Capital-Skill Complementarity. Factor-Price Equalization. Empirical Evidence on the Heckscher-Ohlin Model. Trade in Goods as a Substitute for Trade in Factors: Factor Content of Trade. Patterns of Exports between Developed and Developing Countries. Implications of the Tests.

Summary APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 5: Factor Prices, Goods Prices, and Production Decisions.

Chapter 5

Resources and Trade: The Heckscher-Ohlin Model

Choice of Technique. Goods Prices and Factor Prices. More on Resources and Output

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Chapter Overview

In Chapter 3, trade between nations was motivated by differences internationally in the relative productivity of workers when producing a range of products. In Chapter 4, the Specific Factors model considered additional factors of production, but only labor was mobile between sectors. In Chapter 5, this analysis goes a step further by introducing the Heckscher-Ohlin theory. The Heckscher-Ohlin theory considers the pattern of production and trade that will arise when countries have different endowments of such factors of production as labor, capital, and land and where these factors are mobile between sectors in the long run. The basic point is that countries tend to export goods that are intensive in the factors with which they are abundantly supplied. Trade has strong effects on the relative earnings of resources and, according to theory, leads to equalization across countries of factor prices. These theoretical results and related empirical findings are presented in this chapter. The chapter begins by developing a general equilibrium model of an economy with two goods that are each produced using two factors according to fixed coefficient production functions. The assumption of fixed coefficient production functions provides an unambiguous ranking of goods in terms of factor intensities. (A more realistic model allowing for substitution between factors of production is presented later in the chapter with the same conclusions.) Two important results are derived using this model. The first is known as the Rybczynski effect. Increasing the relative supply of one factor, holding relative goods prices constant, leads to a biased expansion of production possibilities favoring the relative supply of the good that uses that factor intensively. The second key result is known as the Stolper-Samuelson effect. Increasing the relative price of a good, holding factor supplies constant, increases the return to the factor used intensively in the production of that good by more than the price increase, while lowering the return to the other factor. This result has important income distribution implications. It can be quite instructive to think of the effects of demographic/labor force changes on the supply of different products. For example, how might the pattern of production during the productive years of the “Baby Boom” generation differ from the pattern of production for post–Baby Boom generations? What does

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this imply for returns to factors and relative price behavior? What effect would a more restrictive immigration policy have on the pattern of production and trade for the United States? The central message concerning trade patterns of the Heckscher-Ohlin theory is that countries tend to export goods whose production is intensive in factors with which they are relatively abundantly endowed. Comparing the United States and Mexico, for example, we observe a relative abundance of capital in the United States and a relative abundance of labor in Mexico. Thus, goods that intensively use capital in production should be cheaper to produce in the United States, while those that intensively use labor should be cheaper to produce in Mexico. With trade, the United States should export capital-intensive goods like computers, while Mexico should export labor-intensive goods like textiles. With integrated markets, international trade should lead to a convergence of goods prices. Thus, the prices of capital-intensive goods in the United States and labor-intensive goods in Mexico will rise. According to the Stolper-Samuelson effect, owners of a country’s abundant factors (e.g., capital owners in the United States, labor in Mexico) will gain from trade, while owners of the country’s scarce factors (labor in the United States, capital in Mexico) will lose from trade. The extension of this result is the Factor Price Equalization theorem, which states that trade in goods (and thus price equalization of goods) will lead to an equalization of factor prices. These income distribution effects are more or less permanent, given that factor abundances do not quickly change within a country. Theoretically, the gains from trade could be redistributed such that everyone is better off; however, such a plan is difficult to implement in practice. The political implications of factor price equalization should be interesting to students. After presenting the basic theory behind the Heckscher-Ohlin theory, the rest of the chapter examines empirical tests of the model, beginning with a pair of case studies looking at income inequality in the United States. Wages paid to skilled workers in the United States have been rising at a much faster rate than those paid to unskilled workers over the past few decades. At the same time, there has been a large increase in international trade. Given that the United States is relatively abundant in skilled labor, the Heckscher-Ohlin theory would predict that increased trade should lead to higher wages for skilled workers and lower wages for unskilled workers. On the surface, this appears to be an empirical confirmation of the theory. However, other studies argue that rising wage inequality can only partially be explained by increased trade. According to the Heckscher-Ohlin model, the increase in skilled wages should be driven by an increase in the price of skill-intensive goods following trade. However, skill-intensive goods prices have not increased by nearly the same proportion as skilled wages. If rising wage inequality in a rich country like the United States is driven by factor price equalization, then we should also observe a narrowing gap in developing countries that are exporting low-skill intensive goods. However, income inequality in developing countries like China

Chapter 5

Resources and Trade: The Heckscher-Ohlin Model

and Mexico has actually increased with international trade. Finally, trade between rich and poor nations is simply not large enough to be entirely responsible for income inequality growth in developed countries. Rather, the increasing skill premium is most likely due to skill-biased technical innovations like computers that have increased the productivities of skilled workers more than that of unskilled workers. This empirical observation can be modeled by introducing a three-factor production function using unskilled labor, skilled labor, and capital as inputs. Capital acts as a substitute for unskilled labor, but it is a complement to skilled labor. For example, a new machine can replace the work done by an unskilled laborer, but it needs a skilled worker to maintain and design it. With technological change, capital has become more productive and increasingly displaces unskilled workers in both labor abundant developing countries and capital abundant developed countries. This theory can help to explain labor’s decreasing share of total income in both types of countries despite increased trade that would suggest a rising labor share of income in developing countries. Another empirical observation testing the validity of the Heckscher-Ohlin theory is the Leontief paradox. This is the observation that the capital intensity of U.S. exports is actually lower than that of U.S. imports, exactly the opposite of what the theory would predict for a capital abundant country. Further evidence of this paradox is found in global data, with a country’s factor abundance doing a relatively poor job of predicting its trade patterns. Finally, the theory predicts a much larger volume of trade (given observed differences in factor endowments) than we actually see in the data. A country like China, for example, has a significant abundance in labor. However, China’s net exports of labor-intensive goods are lower than what the theory would predict. Similarly, U.S. net imports of labor-intensive goods are lower than what would be expected given its relative labor scarcity. An explanation for this “missing trade” is that the assumption of identical technology across countries is flawed. Rather, there are significant differences in productivity across countries. That said, when the sample is restricted to trade between developed and developing countries (i.e., North–South trade), the Heckscher-Ohlin theory fits well. This is clearly seen in Figure 5-12, with low-skill countries like Bangladesh, Cambodia, and Haiti exporting products that are considerably less skill-intensive than the exports of more developed nations like France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. We can also see this pattern of trade changing as countries develop, as evidenced by the increasing skill intensity of Chinese exports following China’s increased growth and development. These observations have motivated many economists to consider motives for trade between nations that are not exclusively based on differences across countries. These concepts will be explored in later chapters. Despite these shortcomings, important and relevant results concerning income distribution are obtained from the Heckscher-Ohlin theory.

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■ 1.

Answers to Textbook Problems The first step is to compute the opportunity costs of both cloth and food. We are given the following resource constraints:

aKC = 2, aLC = 2, aKF = 3, aLF = 1

L = 2000; K = 3,000

Each unit of cloth is produced with 2 units of capital and 2 units of labor. Each unit of food is produced with 3 units of capital and 1 unit of labor. Furthermore, the economy is endowed with 2,000 units of labor and 3,000 units of capital. Given these values, we can define the following resource constraints: 2QC + QF ≤ 2000 ➔ Labor constraint 2QC + 3QF ≤ 3000 ➔ Capital constraint Solve these two constraints for the quantity of food produced: QF ≤ 2000 − 2QC QF ≤ 1000 − 2/3QC This gives us two budget constraints for food production that must both be met. The production possibilities frontier traces out these budget constraints for food and cloth production. Looking at the diagram, we see that production of both food and cloth will take place when the relative price of cloth is between the two opportunity costs of cloth. The opportunity cost of cloth is given by the slopes of the two components of the production possibilities frontier above, 2/3 and 2. When cloth production is low, the economy will be using relatively more labor to produce cloth, and the opportunity cost of cloth is 2/3 a unit of food. However, as cloth production rises, the economy runs scarce on labor and must take capital away from food production, raising the opportunity cost of cloth to 2 units of food. As long as the relative price of cloth lies between 2/3 and 2 units of food, the economy will produce both goods. If the price of cloth falls below 2/3, then the economy should completely specialize in food production (too low a compensation for producing cloth). If the price of cloth rises above 2, complete specialization in cloth will occur (too low a compensation for producing food). b. Note the input requirements for each good. One unit of cloth can be produced using 2 units of capital and 2 units of labor. One unit of food is produced using 3 units of capital and 1 unit of labor. In a competitive market, the unit cost of each good must be equal to the output price. QC = 2 K + 2 L ➔ PC = 2r + 2w

Chapter 5

Resources and Trade: The Heckscher-Ohlin Model

QF = 3 K + L ➔ PF = 3r + w This gives us two equations and two unknowns (r and w). Solve for the factor prices: w = PF - 3r PC = 2r + 2(PF − 3r) = 2r + 2PF − 6r = 2PF − 4r *** r = (2PF − PC)/4 *** w = (3PC − 2PF)/4 c.

Looking at the two expressions in part (b), we see that an increase in the price of cloth will cause the rental rate of capital to fall and the wage rate to laborers to rise. This makes sense, as cloth is a labor-intensive good. An increase in its price will lead to greater production of cloth and an increase in demand for the factor it uses intensively—labor.

d. The capital stock increases to 4,000. The labor constraint will remain unchanged, keeping the maximum price of cloth at 2 units of food. The new capital constraint is given by: 2QC + 3QF ≤ 4,000. Solving for QF yields: QF ≤ 1333 − 2/3QC. Thus, the minimum price of cloth is also unchanged at 2/3 units of food. The only difference now is that the production possibilities frontier will have a larger horizontal intercept (if cloth is on the horizontal axis). Compared to Figure 5-1, the new production possibilities frontier will intercept the x-axis at 2,000 instead of 1,500. e.

The actual production point for cloth and food will depend on the relative prices of cloth and food. If we assume that the economy is producing at a point such that all resources are being utilized (point 3 in Figure 5-1), then we can compute the quantities of cloth and food by setting the resource constraints equal to one another: QF = 1,333 − 2/3QC = 2,000 − 2QC. 2QC − 2/3QC = 2,000 − 1,333. 4/3QC = 667. QC = 500. QF = 1,333 − 2/3 × 500 = 1,000.

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Prior to the expansion of the capital stock, the economy was producing 750 units of cloth and 500 units of food. After the expansion, cloth production fell to 500, while food production increased to 1,000. This is precisely what the Rybczynski effect predicts will happen.

The definition of Internet services as capital intensive depends on the ratio of capital to labor used in production, not on the ratio of capital or labor to output. The ratio of capital to labor in Internet services exceeds the accounting services in United States, implying that Internet services are capital intensive in the United States. Internet services are capital intensive in other countries as well if the ratio of capital to labor in Internet services exceeds the ratio in accounting services in that country. Comparisons between another country and the United States are less relevant for this purpose.

This question is similar to an issue discussed in Chapter 4. What matters is not the absolute abundance of factors but their relative abundance. Poor countries have an abundance of labor relative to capital when compared to more developed countries. For example, consider a large, rich country like the United States and a small, poor country like Guatemala. Though the United States has more land, natural resources, capital, and labor than Guatemala, what matters for trade is the relative abundance of these factors. The ratio of labor to capital is likely to be much higher in Guatemala than in the United States, reflecting a relative scarcity of capital in Guatemala and abundance in the United States. This makes labor relatively cheaper and capital more expensive in Guatemala than in the United States. Notice that this difference in factor prices is not driven by how much labor Guatemala has compared to the United States, but by the proportion of labor to other factors within each country.

Limiting immigration is a shortsighted policy, as labor unions representing unskilled workers are not directly hurt by the immigration of Mexican blue-collar workers. This is because the US-born workers are not willing to work in risky jobs, but they may consider to be hurt directly by trade that favors the export of skill-intensive goods (and import of low-skill goods). However, the unions may be better served lobbying for resources to increase skill levels among its membership, given that the gains from trade overall will exceed the losses in a particular sector.

In the short run, it is obvious that the transition costs are higher, but on the long-run the accounting services will become more cheaply, the U.S. production possibilities frontier is expanded, making the entire country better off on average. It depends on what type of losses we are referring to. If we talk about competition in wages between Indian accountants and American accountants, then some American accountants may face wage cuts, but this is not consistent with skilled labor wages rising. By making accounting more efficient in general, this development may have increased wages for others in the accounting industry or lowered the prices of the goods overall.

Chapter 5

Resources and Trade: The Heckscher-Ohlin Model

The factor proportions theory states that countries export those goods whose production is intensive in factors with which they are abundantly endowed. One would expect the United States, which has a high capital/labor ratio relative to the rest of the world, to export capital-intensive goods if the Heckscher-Ohlin theory holds. Leontief found that the United States exported labor-intensive goods. Bowen, Leamer, and Sveikauskas found, for the world as a whole, the correlation between factor endowment and trade patterns to be tenuous. The data do not support the predictions of the theory that countries’ exports and imports reflect the relative endowments of factors.

The factor-price equalization is based on the fact that free trade would lead to the convergence of wages between these countries. The theory says that when trade between two countries resumes, the relative prices of the goods converge. This converge in turn, causes the convergence of the relative prices of capital and labor. This means that when two countries are engaged in trading of goods, in an indirect way these two countries are in effect trading the factors of production. In other words, a country abundant in labor is trading the goods produced in high ratio of labor to capital for goods produced with a low labor capital ratio. That means the country is exporting labor and importing the capital. Hence, trade leads to equalization of factor prices of the two countries. However, in the real world, factor prices are not equalized. Mainly, the wage rates in the developing countries are substantially lower than that of the developed countries. This may be due to various reasons. First, the difference is may be due to the dissimilarity in the quality of labor. Second, the countries operate in different technologies of production even for the same products. Third, in the real world the prices are not fully equalized by international trade. Fourth, many countries do not involve sufficiently in the production, which relatively involves more abundant factors. Some countries even with higher labor to capital ratio involve more in the capital intensive technology. The factor price equalization does not occur if the countries involved in trading of their relative scarce resource used products. In the real world situation one or more of these factors mentioned above arises in international trade, hence the difference in wages across countries.

Chapter 6 The Standard Trade Model

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Chapter Organization

A Standard Model of a Trading Economy. Production Possibilities and Relative Supply. Relative Prices and Demand. The Welfare Effect of Changes in the Terms of Trade. Box: U.S. Consumer Gains from Chinese Imports Determining Relative Prices. Economic Growth: A Shift of the RS Curve. Growth and the Production Possibility Frontier. World Relative Supply and the Terms of Trade. International Effects of Growth. Case Study: Has the Growth of Newly Industrialized Economies Hurt Advanced Nations? Box: The Exposure of Developing Countries to Terms of Trade Shocks and the Covid-19 Pandemic Tariffs and Export Subsidies: Simultaneous Shifts in RS and RD. Relative Demand and Supply Effects of a Tariff. Effects of an Export Subsidy. Implications of Terms of Trade Effects: Who Gains and Who Loses? International Borrowing and Lending. Intertemporal Production Possibilities and Trade.

Chapter 6

The Standard Trade Model

The Real Interest Rate. Intertemporal Comparative Advantage.

Summary APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 6: More on Intertemporal Trade

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Chapter Overview

Previous chapters have highlighted specific sources of comparative advantage that give rise to international trade. This chapter presents a general model that admits previous models as special cases. This “standard trade model” is the workhorse of international trade theory and can be used to address a wide range of issues. Some of these issues, such as the welfare and distributional effects of economic growth, transfers between nations, and tariffs and subsidies on traded goods, are considered in this chapter. The standard trade model is based upon four relationships. First, an economy will produce at the point where the production possibilities curve is tangent to the relative price line (called the isovalue line). Second, indifference curves describe the tastes of an economy, and the consumption point for that economy is found at the tangency of the budget line and the highest indifference curve. These two relationships yield the familiar general equilibrium trade diagram for a small economy (one that takes as given the terms of trade), where the consumption point and production point are the tangencies of the isovalue line with the highest indifference curve and the production possibilities frontier, respectively. You may want to work with this standard diagram to demonstrate a number of basic points. First, an autarkic economy must produce what it consumes, which determines the equilibrium price ratio; and second, opening an economy to trade shifts the price ratio line and unambiguously increases welfare. Third, an improvement in the terms of trade (ratio of export prices to import prices) increases welfare in the economy. Fourth, it is straightforward to move from a small country analysis to a two-country analysis by introducing a structure of world relative demand and supply curves, which determine relative prices. These relationships can be used in conjunction with the Rybczynski and the Stolper-Samuelson theorems from the previous chapter to address a range of issues. For example, you can consider whether the dramatic economic growth of China has helped or hurt the United States as a whole and also identify the classes of individuals within the United States who have been hurt by China’s particular growth biases. For example, an information box in this chapter provides results from a study that argues that the gains from trade with China are larger for U.S. consumers at the bottom of the income distribution as they tend .

Krugman/Obstfeld/Melitz • International Economics: Theory & Policy, 12e, Global Edition

to consume relatively more tradable goods (food, apparel, etc.) than richer consumers who spend relatively more on nontraded services. In teaching these points, it might be interesting and useful to relate them to current events. For example, you can lead a class discussion on the implications for the United States of the provision of forms of technical and economic assistance to the emerging economies around the world or the ways in which a world recession can lead to a fall in demand for U.S. exports. The example provided in the text considers the popular arguments in the media that growth in China hurts the United States. The analysis presented in this chapter demonstrates that the bias of growth is important in determining welfare effects rather than the country in which growth occurs. The existence of biased growth and the possibility of immiserizing growth are discussed. The Relative Supply (RS) and Relative Demand (RD) curves illustrate the effect of biased growth on the terms of trade. The new terms of trade line can be used with the general equilibrium analysis to find the welfare effects of growth. A general principle that emerges is that a country that experiences export-biased growth will have a deterioration in its terms of trade, while a country that experiences import-biased growth has an improvement in its terms of trade. A case study argues that this is really an empirical question, and the evidence suggests that the rapid growth of countries like China has not led to a significant deterioration of the U.S. terms of trade nor has it drastically improved China’s terms of trade. The countries most vulnerable to terms of trade shocks are those that rely on exports of primary commodities with volatile prices. For more diversified economies, the terms of trade tends to be more stable. An information box in the text discusses the exposure of developing countries to terms of trade shocks and the Covid-19 pandemic. While most countries experience mild swings in their terms of trade some developing nation with export concentrations in mining and agriculture (i.e., commodities) can see substantial changes in their nations welfare given the price volatility of these export goods. One recent study of 38 low-income countries estimated that trade movements accounted for 40 percent of their average GDP fluctuations. The COVID-19 pandemic induced large fluctuations in commodity prices that hit some developing nations very hard. For example, oil prices tanked and even turned negative at one point due to lack of demand. Nigeria, where oil represented 80 percent of all exports, was thrown into the worst recession in four decades. The second area to which the standard trade model is applied is the effects of import tariffs and export subsidies on welfare and terms of trade. The analysis proceeds by recognizing that tariffs or subsidies shift both the relative supply and relative demand curves. A tariff on imports improves the terms of trade, expressed in external prices, while a subsidy on exports worsens terms of trade. The size of the effect depends upon the size of the country in the world. Tariffs and subsidies also impose distortionary costs .

Chapter 6

The Standard Trade Model

upon the economy. Thus, if a country is large enough, there may be an optimum, nonzero tariff. Export subsidies, however, only impose costs upon an economy. Internationally, tariffs aid import-competing sectors and hurt export sectors, while subsidies have the opposite effect. The chapter then closes with a discussion of international borrowing and lending. The standard trade model is adapted to trade in consumption across time. The relative price of future consumption is defined as 1/(1 + r), where r is the real interest rate. Countries with relatively high real interest rates (newly industrializing countries with high investment returns, for example) will be biased toward future consumption and will effectively “export” future consumption by borrowing from established developed countries with relatively lower real interest rates.

■

Answers to Textbook Problems

Note how welfare in both countries increases as the two countries move from production patterns governed by domestic prices (dashed line) to production patterns governed by world prices (straight line). 2.

If the relative price of palm oil increases in relation to the price of lubricants, there would be an increase in the production of palm oil, because Indonesia exports palm oil. Similarly, an increase in the relative price of lubricants leads to a shift along the indifference curve, towards lubricants and away from palm oil for Indonesia. This is because Palm oil is relatively expensive, hence reducing palm oil consumption in Indonesia. Expensive palm oil increases the relative income of Indonesia. The income effect would induce more for the consumption of palm oil, whereas, the substitution effect acts to make the economy consume

Krugman/Obstfeld/Melitz • International Economics: Theory & Policy, 12e, Global Edition

less palm oil and more lubricants. However, if the income effect outweighs the substitution effect, then the consumption of palm oil would increase in Indonesia. 3.

An increase in the terms of trade increases welfare when the PPF is right-angled. The production point is the corner of the PPF. The consumption point is the tangency of the relative price line and the highest indifference curve. An improvement in the terms of trade rotates the relative price line about its intercept with the PPF rectangle (because there is no substitution of immobile factors, the production point stays fixed). The economy can then reach a higher indifference curve. Intuitively, although there is no supply response, the economy receives more for the exports it supplies and pays less for the imports it purchases.

The difference from the standard diagram is that the indifference curves are right angles rather than smooth curves. Here, a terms of trade increase enables an economy to move to a higher indifference curve. The income expansion path for this economy is a ray from the origin. A terms of trade improvement moves the consumption point further out along the ray.

The terms of trade for Netherlands, importing raw materials (R) and exporting agricultural products (A) is the world relative price of agricultural products in terms of raw materials (pA/pR). The terms of trade change can be determined by the shifts in the world relative supply and demand (agriculture products to raw materials) curves. Note that in the following answers, world relative supply (RS) and relative demand (RD) are always A relative to R. We consider all countries to be large, such that changes affect the world relative price. a.

Farm pollution in China is worsening. This means a decrease in the supply of raw materials, which increases the world RS. The world relative supply curve shifts out. Also, China’s demand for raw materials decreases, which reduces world demand, so that the world demand curve shifts in. These forces decrease the world relative price of agricultural products and deteriorate Netherland’s terms of trade.

b. Egypt is planning to import liquefied natural gas, which increases the supply of raw materials and decreases the world relative supply of agricultural products to raw materials. The world relative supply curve shifts in, increasing the world price of agricultural products and improving Netherland’s terms of trade. c.

Germany’s strategy for raw materials and energy productivity decreases the demand for raw materials. This increases the world RD and the world relative demand curve shifts out, increasing the world relative price of agricultural products and improving Netherland’s terms of trade.

d. OPEC’s agreement with Russia decreases the supply of raw materials and increases the world relative supply of agricultural products to raw materials. The world relative supply curve shifts

Chapter 6

The Standard Trade Model

out, decreasing the world relative price of agricultural products and deteriorating Netherland’s terms of trade. e.

A rise in Netherland’s tariffs on imported iron and steel will decrease its internal relative price of agricultural products (pA/pR). This price change will decrease Netherland’s RS and increase Netherland’s RD, which decreases the world RS and increases the world RS. The world relative price of agricultural products rises and Netherland’s terms of trade improve.

The declining price of manufactured goods relative to agricultural products shifts the isovalue line clockwise so that relative fewer manufactured goods and more agricultural products are produced in the United States, thus, reducing U.S. welfare.

These results acknowledge the biased growth that occurs when there is an increase in one factor of production. An increase in the capital stock of either country favors production of good X, while an increase in the labor supply favors production of good Y. Also, recognize the Heckscher-Ohlin result that an economy will export that good that uses intensively the factor which that economy has in relative abundance. Country A exports good X to country B and imports good Y from country B. The possibility of immiserizing growth makes the welfare effects of a terms of trade improvement due to export-biased growth ambiguous. Import-biased growth unambiguously improves welfare for the growing country. a.

The relative price of good X falls, causing country A’s terms of trade to worsen. A’s welfare may increase or, less likely, decrease, and B’s welfare increases.

b. The relative price of good Y rises, causing A’s terms of trade to improve. A’s welfare increases, and B’s welfare decreases. c.

The relative price of good X falls, causing country B’s terms of trade to improve. B’s welfare increases, and A’s welfare decreases (they earn less for the same quantity of exports).

d. The relative price of good X rises, causing country B’s terms of trade to worsen. B’s welfare may increase or, less likely, decrease, and A’s welfare increases. 8. Immiserizing growth occurs when the welfare deteriorating effects of a worsening in an economy’s terms of trade swamp the welfare improving effects of growth. For this to occur, an economy must undergo very biased growth, and the economy must be a large enough actor in the world economy such that its actions spill over to adversely alter the terms of trade to a large degree. This combination of events is unlikely to occur in practice. 9. Singapore’s adoption of instruments for an eco-innovative strategy should be good for the United States if the change reduces the relative price of goods that Korea sends to the United States and

Krugman/Obstfeld/Melitz • International Economics: Theory & Policy, 12e, Global Edition

hence increase the relative price of goods that the United States exports. Obviously, any sector in the United States hurt by trade with Korea would be hurt again by Singapore, but on net, the United States wins. Note that here we are making different assumptions about what Singapore produces and what is tradable than we are in question 6. Here we are assuming Singapore exports eco-friendly products and services than those that the United States currently imports and Korea currently exports. Korea will lose by having the relative price of its exports driven down by the increased production in Singapore. 10. What matters for welfare are the external terms of trade. Suppose that country X exports good A and imports good B, while country Y exports good B and imports good A. The export subsidy in country X will raise the internal price of the export good A, leading to an increase in production of good A and decrease demand of good A. As a result, the world price of the good A falls. The tariff on good A in country Y will increase production and decrease demand for good A in country Y, leading to a reduction in the world price of good A relative to good B. Thus, the terms of trade in country X falls, and the terms of trade in country Y rise. Country X is worse off, while country Y is better off. If instead country Y had imposed an export subsidy on good B, then the internal price of good B would rise. Production of good B rises, and demand for good B falls. As a result, the world price of good B falls. The net effect on welfare is ambiguous and depends on the relative declines in the world prices of goods A and B. 11. International borrowing and lending implies a trade-off between the production of current and future consumption much like trade in goods implies a trade-off between production of different goods. The more current consumption you select, the less future consumption you will be able to engage in. International borrowing and lending is driven by differences between countries in intertemporal preferences much like international trade is driven by differences between countries in technology or factor endowments. Countries with a relative preference for current consumption will “export” current consumption in exchange for future consumption. In other words, these countries will borrow in the current period from countries that have a relative preference for future consumption. Much like international trade, the relative amount of current consumption that is traded for future consumption is determined by the relative price of future consumption, defined as 1/(1 + r), where r is the real interest rate. 12. Comparative advantage in international borrowing and lending is driven by the relative price of future consumption and, more specifically, the real interest rate. As the real interest rate rises, the relative price of future consumption 1/(1 + r) falls. Effectively, a country with a high real interest rate is one that has high returns on investment. Such a country will prefer to borrow today and take advantage of

Chapter 6

The Standard Trade Model

the high return on investment and enjoy the fruits of current investment with high returns in the future. a.

The discovery of natural gas reserves that require significant investment for extraction will cause real interest rates in Egypt to rise (large decrease in wealth). This will cause the relative price of future consumption to decrease, making it more likely that Egypt will have a PPF biased toward importing present consumption.

b. Countries like India will have a relatively higher interest rate, as they already have a low level of capital and limited returns on new investment. As result, the relative price of future consumption is low and they will be biased toward importing present consumption, preferring not to lend today. c.

Countries like Germany and the US should lower the real interest rate as there are fewer investment opportunities that have yet to be exploited. Those countries will have a high price of future consumption and will be biased toward importing future consumption, preferring not to borrow today.

d. Infrastructure investments in Indonesia imply that real interest rates are high given the lucrative investment opportunities in the country. A higher real interest rate should drive the relative price of future consumption down and bias intertemporal PPF toward exporting future consumption. e.

Netherlands do not require significant investments to use biofuels, which means the interest rates will fall. This will cause the relative price of future consumption to rise, making it more likely that Netherlands will have a PPF biased toward exporting present consumption.

Chapter 7 External Economies of Scale and the International Location of Production

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Chapter Organization

Economies of Scale and International Trade: An Overview. Economies of Scale and Market Structure. The Theory of External Economies. Specialized Suppliers. Labor Market Pooling. Knowledge Spillovers. External Economies and Market Equilibrium. External Economies and International Trade. External Economies, Output, and Prices. External Economies and the Pattern of Trade. Trade and Welfare with External Economies. Box: Holding the World Together. Dynamic Increasing Returns. Interregional Trade and Economic Geography. Box: The City and the Street

Summary .

Chapter 7

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External Economies of Scale and the International Location of Production

Chapter Overview

In previous chapters, trade between nations was motivated by their differences in factor productivity or relative factor endowments. The type of trade that occurred, for example of food for manufactures, is based on comparative advantage and is called interindustry trade. This chapter introduces trade based on economies of scale in production. Such trade in similar productions is called intraindustry trade and describes, for example, the trading of one type of manufactured goods for another type of manufactured goods. It is shown that trade can occur when there are no technological or endowment differences but when there are economies of scale or increasing returns in production, as opposed to the constant returns to scale assumed in previous chapters. Economies of scale can either take the form of (1) external economies, whereby the cost per unit depends on the size of the industry but not necessarily on the size of the firm; or as (2) internal economies, whereby the production cost per unit of output depends on the size of the individual firm but not necessarily on the size of the industry. Internal economies of scale give rise to imperfectly competitive markets, unlike the perfectly competitive market structures that were assumed to exist in earlier chapters. Industries characterized by purely external economies of scale will typically consist of many small firms and be perfectly competitive. The focus of this chapter is on external economies, while the next chapter looks at internal economies. External economies of scale (EES) lead to a clustering of firms in one location for three main reasons: 1.

Specialized suppliers: By locating next to firms in the same industry, you are able to specialize in one aspect of the production process and outsource other stages of production to neighboring firms.

Labor market pooling: Firms with specific skill needs will prefer to locate near a large pool of workers with those skills to limit labor market shortages. At the same time, skilled workers prefer to locate close to the firms that hire them to limit unemployment.

Knowledge spillovers: Having similar firms located next to one another can lead to increased sharing of ideas and partnerships.

Market equilibrium in an EES industry is determined by the intersection of market demand and supply as in the constant returns case. The key difference here is that the market supply curve is forward falling, reflecting the fact that average costs in the industry actually fall as industry production (i.e., size) rises. This distinction drives trade in this model. When two countries trade, it makes sense to concentrate production in one country because this will lead to lower average costs than splitting production across two countries. With trade, the country with the lower average cost will export the good. This will lead to more production in the exporting

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country and less production in the importing country. As the industry is characterized by EES, this will cause costs in the exporting country to fall and costs to rise in the importing country. Eventually, all production will locate in the exporting country at a lower market price than would have prevailed without trade. The pattern of trade is only partially explained by comparative advantage. Rather, it may be a historical accident that led to the formation of an industry in a particular location. The chapter gives the example of why global button manufacturing is concentrated in one town in China, mostly because one firm in the 1980s began producing buttons there. That the location of production is not entirely dependent on comparative advantage presents situations in which trade can actually make a country worse off. For example, if button production is already established in China, then Chinese button producers have an advantage over firms in countries without an established button industry (due to external economies of scale in the button industry). Without trade, the button industry in a low-wage country could develop to the point where it is actually producing at a scale such that the price of buttons is lower than the world price established by the Chinese button industry. This suggests that a country could actually make itself better off by closing off from trade to let external economies of scale industries develop, assuming that the country has a large enough market to support an efficient scale of production. However, these cases may be difficult to identify, and protectionism can lead to unintended consequences such as retaliatory tariffs. External economies may also be the result of learning curves (dynamic increasing returns). In this scenario, the unit cost of production falls as the cumulative output of an industry rises. Industries that have been around for a long time are further out on their learning curves and will have an advantage over new industries that still have to undergo the process of “learning by doing.” The presence of these learning curves may justify infant industry tariff protection, as a new industry in a country could potentially be competitive but needs to be protected until it develops the acquired knowledge of established global competitors. On the other hand, it may be difficult to identify such situations, and tariff protection presents several problems, which will be discussed in later chapters (notably rent-seeking behavior by protected firms). The chapter concludes with a look at the role of London and New York as examples of external economies of scale in finance. Concentrating the finance industry in these locations gives firms an advantage in terms of close access to specialized suppliers and skilled labor. However, the recent COVID-19 pandemic has shifted many face-to-face meetings to remote interaction. For an industry like finance with minimal transportation costs, a shift to remote interaction could potentially reduce external economies of scale.

Chapter 7

■ 1.

External Economies of Scale and the International Location of Production

Answers to Textbook Problems

Cases a and c represent internal economies of scale because a single firm/factory is producing the output for the whole industry. As the output increases, average costs will fall. This can lead to imperfect competition as it supports a limited number of firms in the industry. Cases b and d represent external economies of scale as industry production is concentrated in a just a few locations. The benefits of geographical clustering include a greater variety of specialized services to support industry operations, access to a larger pool of specialized labor and thicker input markets.

This view is flawed in the sense that countries produce more than one good. Trade allows a country to free up resources from a relatively less efficient industry and expand production in industries with more efficient production. With increasing returns, this expansion of production will drive down costs.

There may be a case made for external economies leading to losses from trade, however. Consider the diagram above. Country A is an established producer and produces at quantity QA and price PA. If country B were to enter into the industry, its initial startup cost would be at CB. Because this is greater than PA, country B will import this good. However, if country B were to be closed off from trade, then production would be at QB and price would be PB. Thus, trade actually represents a situation worse than autarky for country B and protection may be warranted. However, actually identifying these situations is difficult, and protection may lead to unintended consequences (such as retaliatory tariffs). 3.

Dynamic increasing returns occur whenever average costs fall with cumulative output. In other words, a learning curve exists that favors established producers over startups. Two industries characterized by dynamic increasing returns are biotechnology and aircraft design. Biotechnology is an industry in which innovation fuels new products, but it is also one where learning how to successfully take an idea and create a profitable product is a skill set that may require some practice. Aircraft design requires

Krugman/Obstfeld/Melitz • International Economics: Theory & Policy, 12e, Global Edition

innovations to create new planes that are safer or more cost efficient, but it is also an industry where new planes are often subtle alterations of previous models and where detailed experience with one model may be a huge help in creating a new one. 4.

The relatively few locations for production suggest external economies of scale in production. If these operations are large, there may also be large internal economies of scale in production.

b. Because economies of scale are significant in uranium production, it tends to be done by a small number of firms at a limited number of locations. c. Because external economies of scale are significant in beef production, the industry tends to be concentrated in certain geographic locations. Soil, climactic conditions and historical breeding reflects the comparative advantage too. d. “True” Champagne comes from France. The production of Champagne requires special techniques and it’s already a French trademark. This labor market pooling suggests external economy of scale. But soil and climactic conditions too are favorable for producing it and this reflects comparative advantage. e. Because of climatic conditions, and due to a large market, Brazil generates external economies of scale in coffee production. 5.

Both countries have identical forward-falling supply curves, so the pattern of production will depend entirely on which country establishes its industry first. The country that moves first will have a cost advantage over the other country because it is producing a larger quantity of the good. That country will produce the entire output of the good and export to the second country.

b. Both countries benefit from international trade in this case as the price of the good will be lower when one country produces the entire output as compared to both countries producing half of the output. The only way that the importing country would not benefit from trade is if it were a much more efficient producer than the exporting country (but due to increasing returns, cannot compete with an established industry). However, both countries have the same supply curve, so they both gain from trade. 6.

The three forces driving external economies of scale are access to specialized suppliers, labor market pooling, and knowledge spillovers. As these forces weaken, so too do the cost advantages of geographic clustering. The location of production becomes increasingly driven by factor costs when industries move away from external economies of scale toward traditional constant returns to scale.

Even with higher wages in China, the external economies of scale industries located in China may not move to lower-wage countries. Consider Figure 7-4 in the text. China’s average cost curve lies above Vietnam’s reflecting higher wages in China. However, the fact that Chinese industry is established

Chapter 7

External Economies of Scale and the International Location of Production

gives it a cost advantage over any Vietnamese firms who would enter into the industry and face an initial cost higher than the established Chinese firms. Production would only shift to Vietnam if China’s average cost curve were to shift up enough so that the new equilibrium price and cost in China lies above the startup cost in Vietnam. 8.

Consider again two different scenarios: In scenario 1, there are two firms in the same location and a local labor supply of 200 for both firms. In scenario 2, the two firms are far apart, and each firm has a local labor supply of 100. Now suppose that both firms are expanding, increasing their demand for labor up to 150 each. In the first case, each firm will face a local labor shortage of 50 workers (assuming each firm is able to hire 100 workers). In the second case, each firm will experience the same local labor shortage of 50 workers! Thus, locating next to each other does not present any disadvantages over locating far apart when both firms are expanding. There still is, however, an advantage when one firm is expanding and the other is contracting.

This is a typical example of external economies of scale. The Chinese industry of buttons gives a cost advantage because of the available pool of skilled labor. Dynamic returns are unlikely as the technology used in producing buttons is relative stable (a low learning curve). The only comparative advantage that China might have in this industry is related to the experience and cost efficiency of the labor.

Chapter 8 Firms in the Global Economy: Export and Foreign Sourcing Decisions and Multinational Enterprises

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Chapter Organization

The Theory of Imperfect Competition. Monopoly: A Brief Review. Monopolistic Competition. Monopolistic Competition and Trade. The Effects of Increased Market Size. Gains from an Integrated Market: A Numerical Example. The Significance of Intra-Industry Trade. Case Study: Automobile Intra-Industry Trade Within ASEAN-4: 1998-2002. Firm Responses to Trade: Winners, Losers, and Industry Performance. Performance Differences across Producers The Effects of Increased Market Size Trade Costs and Export Decisions. Dumping. Case Study: Antidumping as Protectionism Multinationals and Foreign Direct Investment. Patterns of Foreign Direct Investment Flows Around the World. Foreign Direct Investment and Foreign Sourcing Decisions

Chapter 8 Firms in the Global Economy: Export and Foreign Sourcing Decisions and Multinational Enterprises

The Horizontal FDI Decision The Foreign Sourcing Decision Case Study: COVID-19 and FDI Flows Around the World The Outsourcing Decision: Make or Buy Box: Whose Trade Is It? Case Study: Shipping Jobs Overseas? Offshoring and Labor Market Outcomes in Germany. Consequences of Multinationals and Foreign Outsourcing.

Summary APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 8: Determining Marginal Revenue

Krugman/Obstfeld/Melitz • International Economics: Theory & Policy, 12e, Global Edition

■

Chapter Overview

In previous chapters, trade among nations was motivated by their differences in factor productivity or relative factor endowments. The type of trade that occurred, for example of food for manufactures, is based on comparative advantage and is called interindustry trade. This chapter introduces trade based on internal economies of scale in production. Such trade in similar productions is called intraindustry trade and describes, for example, the trading of one type of manufactured good for another type of manufactured good. It is shown that trade can occur when there are no technological or endowment differences but when there are economies of scale or increasing returns in production. Economies of scale can either take the form of (1) external economies, whereby the cost per unit depends on the size of the industry but not necessarily on the size of the firm, or as (2) internal economies, whereby the production cost per unit of output depends on the size of the individual firm but not necessarily on the size of the industry. Chapter 7 looked at external economies of scale, whereas this chapter focuses on internal economies of scale. Internal economies of scale give rise to imperfectly competitive markets, unlike the perfectly competitive market structures that were assumed to exist in earlier chapters. This motivates the review of models of imperfect competition, including monopoly and monopolistic competition. The instructor should spend some time making certain that students understand the equilibrium concepts of these models because they are important for the justification of intraindustry trade. In markets described by monopolistic competition, there are a number of firms in an industry, each of which produces a differentiated product. Demand for its good depends on the number of other similar products available and their prices. This type of model is useful for illustrating that trade improves the trade-off between scale and variety available to a country. In an industry described by monopolistic competition, a larger market—such as that which arises through international trade—lowers average price (by increasing production and lowering average costs) and makes a greater range of goods available for consumption. Although an integrated market also supports the existence of a larger number of firms in an industry, the model presented in the text does not make predictions about where these industries will be located. It is also interesting to compare the distributional effects of trade when motivated by comparative advantage with those when trade is motivated by increasing returns to scale in production. When countries are similar in their factor endowments, and when scale economies and product differentiation are important, the income distributional effects of trade will be small. You should make clear to the students the sharp contrast between the predictions of the models of monopolistic competition and the specific

Chapter 8 Firms in the Global Economy: Export and Foreign Sourcing Decisions and Multinational Enterprises

factors and Heckscher-Ohlin theories of international trade. Without clarification, some students may find the contrasting predictions of these models confusing. The chapter presents the case study of the 1964 North American Auto Pact, which lowered trade barriers in trade of automotive products between Canada and the United States. Canadian auto plants declined in number, but the size of the remaining plants increased significantly as they were producing for both the U.S. and Canadian markets. The net result was an increase in exports of automotive products from Canada to the United States, rising from $16 million in 1962 to $2.4 billion in 1968. A similar example of trade with internal economies benefiting smaller countries was seen with NAFTA, as Mexican firms gained from freer access to the much larger American market, though there was also significant growth of exports by American auto parts manufacturers to Mexico. Another important issue related to imperfectly competitive markets is the practice of price discrimination, namely charging different customers different prices. One particularly controversial form of price discrimination is dumping, whereby a firm charges lower prices for exported goods than for goods sold domestically. This can occur only when domestic and foreign markets are segmented. The economics of dumping are illustrated in the text using the example of an industry that contains a single monopolistic firm selling in the domestic and foreign markets. While there is no good economic justification for the view that dumping is harmful, it is often viewed as an unfair trade practice. The chapter concludes with a discussion of foreign direct investment (FDI). FDI may be horizontal or vertical. With horizontal FDI, a firm replicates its production process in multiple locations. With vertical FDI, a firm breaks up its production chain across multiple locations. The decision by a multinational to engage in FDI is driven by a proximity-concentration trade-off. Internal economies of scale give an advantage to locating all production in one location. However, trade costs increase the cost of exporting from a single location. Thus, FDI is more likely when trade costs are high and internal economies of scale are low. Finally, a multinational must decide whether to engage in direct foreign production through a foreign affiliate or to engage in outsourcing. The former is more likely when the multinational has a proprietary technology that it is concerned about losing control over or if foreign firms cannot produce as efficiently as direct production through a foreign affiliate. An information box in the text shows that firms may make multiple outsourcing decisions over a range of intermediate goods. Production scale ultimately determines the trade-offs between lower production costs and fixed costs, but now the decision to use different suppliers in different countries are interconnected since the foreign supplier used affects production costs. These cost differences and scale effects make the sourcing decision more complex. Some multinationals opt to outsource parts of the production chain to take advantage of cost differences across

Krugman/Obstfeld/Melitz • International Economics: Theory & Policy, 12e, Global Edition

production locations. An information box in the text (Whose trade is it?) considers how outsourcing (the relocation of parts of the production chain abroad) have affected how we assess trade balances, using an Apple iPhone as an example. An iPhone 11 Pro Max purchased in the United States represents a gross import value of $490 from China. However, only $10 of that cost reflects the value added by assembly and testing in China. The remainder is the cost of components mostly produced outside of China. Evaluating trade balances on the basis of value added at each production stage reduces by half the size of the U.S. trade deficit with China, but magnifies the U.S. trade deficit with Germany, Japan, and Korea. This analysis underscores how important global supply chains have become. Another case study examines the impact of offshoring on employment in the United States. The study finds that offshoring has increased for U.S. firms, particularly of manufacturing jobs. However, the productivity gains achieved by offshoring have actually led to an increase in the overall level of U.S. employment. It is important to note, however, that the new jobs created by offshoring may not be filled by those people who lost their jobs due to offshoring. Losing a job to offshoring is not made easier by knowing other U.S. workers have gained a job for the same reason. While outsourcing leads to overall gains from trade there are income distribution effects that will leave some people worse off. These job displacements are painful and visible in the short run but policies that impede firms’ abilities to outsource production also forestall the accumulation of long-run-economy-wide gains.

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Answers to Textbook Problems

Chapter 8 Firms in the Global Economy: Export and Foreign Sourcing Decisions and Multinational Enterprises

With internal economies of scale, there is imperfect competition, and firms set marginal revenue equal to marginal cost. Unlike the case of perfectly competitive markets, under monopoly, marginal revenue is not equal to price. Marginal revenue is always less than price under imperfectly competitive markets because to sell an extra unit of output, the firm must lower the price of all units, not just the marginal one. Furthermore, if internal economies of scale are driven by large fixed costs, then setting price equal to marginal cost would actually lead to negative profit for a firm that needs to set price above marginal cost to cover its fixed costs.

To solve this problem, we need first to find the equilibrium number of firms in the four countries integrated market by setting average cost equal to price across all markets. We are doing this by noting that average cost can be written as AC = (nF/S) + c and price can be written as P = c + (1/bn), where n is the number of firms, F is the fixed cost, S is the market size, c is the marginal cost and b is a constant. Setting the average cost equal to price yields the following expression: (nF/S) + c = c + (1/bn). n2 = (1/b) × S/F. n = [(1/b) × S/F] 1/2. The numerical problem in the chapter gives us the following values: F = 750,000,000. SHome = 900,000, SForeign = 1,600,000, SCountry 3 = 2,000,000, SCountry 4 = 1,000,000. c = 5,000. b = 1/30,000. Now compute the total market size as the sum of the market sizes: S = SHome + SForeign + SCountry 3 + SCountry 4 = 5,500,000. Now plug in these values to solve for n: n = [30,000 × 5,500,000/750,000,000]1/2 = 14.83. As we cannot have 0.83 firms enter to a market, we know that there will be only 14 firms that enter the markets of country 3 and 4 (the 15th firm knows that it cannot earn positive profits and will not enter). Once we know n, then solving for Q and P is straightforward: Q = S/n = 5,500,000/14 = 392,857. P = c + (1/bn) = 5,000 + 30,000/14 = 7,142.857. This price is lower than that charged when there were only two countries in the market.

Krugman/Obstfeld/Melitz • International Economics: Theory & Policy, 12e, Global Edition

We are given the following information (with all dollar amounts in thousands): F = 7,500,000,000. c = 20,000. SUS = 400,000,000 SEU = 650,000,000. P = c + (1/bn) = 20,000 + (200/n). The condition we derived in Problem 2 was n = [(1/b) × S/F]1/2. Looking at the price equation above, we see that 1/b = 200. Plug in the relevant parameters to solve for the equilibrium number of firms in the United States and the European Union: nUS = [200 × 400,000,000/7,500,000,000]1/2 = [10,66]1/2 = 3,27 nEU = [200 × 650,000,000/7,500,000,000]1/2 = [17,33]1/2 = 4,17 a.

Without trade, there will be different prices in the United States and the European Union: PUS = 20,000 + (200/3) = 20,066.66 PEU = 20,000 + (200/4) = 20,050

b. After trade, the new market size is S = 400,000,000 + 650,000,000 = 1,050,000,000 Simply plug this new market size into the equilibrium number of firms’ expression obtained above: n = [200 × 1,050,000,000/7,500,000,000]1/2 = [28]1/2 = 5.29 P = 20,000 + (200/5) = 20,040 4. a.

We can model this decision by defining the technology in the following terms: If a firm invests in the technology, it will face a fixed cost T, but face a marginal cost cT which is lower than its marginal cost c without the technology. Thus, we define the firm’s total cost with and without the technology as: Cost without Technology = TC = cQ + F Cost with Technology = TC* = cTQ + F + T A firm will choose to adopt this technology whenever TC* < TC: cTQ + F + T < cQ + F T < (c − cT)Q

Chapter 8 Firms in the Global Economy: Export and Foreign Sourcing Decisions and Multinational Enterprises

Q > T/(c − cT) As with most decisions involving fixed costs, the technology is more likely to increase a firm’s profits when the scale of production increases. Now compare a firm with low marginal costs and one with high marginal costs. The gap c − cT will be smaller for a low marginal cost firm than for a high marginal cost firm. Thus, a firm with low marginal cost will need a higher level of output to justify the technology than a firm with high marginal costs. So, it is possible that some firms (high-cost firms) will choose to adopt the technology while others (low-cost firms) do not. b.

Trade costs raise the marginal cost of exporting. A firm that exports faces a higher marginal cost than one that does not export and will, therefore, be more likely to use this new technology.

5. a.

We know that the number of firms competing in a market increases as the size of the market rises. At the same time, the price charged in a market falls as the number of firms competing in that market rises. Thus, as the number of firms increases, the price charged by exporters (and domestic firms) will fall. This increases the probability that a dumping charge will be filed.

b. A firm exporting from a small country to a large country will experience a larger difference between its domestic price (higher) and its export price (lower) because there will be more firms competing in the larger country. Thus, a firm exporting from a small country to a large country will be more likely to be accused of dumping than a firm exporting from a large country to a small country. 6. a.

The investment is for a stake of 25%, so it is a Foreign Direct Investment.

b. This is not a foreign direct investment, it is a portfolio investment. c.

This acquisition would represent more than 10% ownership of the company and is therefore Foreign Direct Investment.

If the Turkish company retains ownership of the factory in Turkey, then it is a Foreign Direct Investment. If, however, the Turkish company simply built and managed the factory, but it is owned by the Turkish government, this would not be Foreign Direct Investment.

7. a.

This would be a horizontal FDI outflow from the United Kingdom and inflow into Romania.

b. This would be a horizontal FDI, but not outflow or inflow, as the acquisition happens in the United States. c. This would be a vertical FDI outflow from the United States and inflow into Belgium. d.

This would be a vertical FDI outflow from China and inflow into Australia.

Krugman/Obstfeld/Melitz • International Economics: Theory & Policy, 12e, Global Edition

8. Even with internal economies of scale, there may still be an advantage to producing the same good in multiple production facilities. This is an example of the proximity-concentration trade-off. The advantage of producing in only one location is that economies of scale are maximized. However, producing in only one location exposes this firm to trade costs when it exports from that location. If these trade costs are high enough, it may be more efficient to locate production in multiple locations. The number of locations is limited by the losses from splitting production and losing out on economies of scale. 9. This question relates to the decision by a multinational to outsource production or to engage in direct production through foreign affiliates. A multinational may prefer to use a foreign affiliate if it has a proprietary technology that it is concerned about losing through outsourcing (perhaps due to weak property rights in foreign countries) or if it doubts the ability of other firms to produce as efficiently as it could. Capital-intensive industries are more likely to have proprietary technologies or complex production processes that make foreign affiliate production a better choice for a multinational. 10. Intrafirm trade will be higher in industries with a high degree of vertical FDI. As capital-intensive industries are likely to have more vertical FDI for the reasons outlined above, we should expect more intrafirm trade in these industries. This is supported by the higher degree of intraindustry trade in capital-intensive industries in Table 8-3.

Chapter 9 The Instruments of Trade Policy

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Chapter Organization

Basic Tariff Analysis. Supply, Demand, and Trade in a Single Industry. Effects of a Tariff. Measuring the Amount of Protection. Costs and Benefits of a Tariff. Consumer and Producer Surplus. Measuring the Costs and Benefits. Case Study: Winners and Losers of the Trump Trade War. Box: Tariffs and Retaliation. Other Instruments of Trade Policy. Export Subsidies: Theory. Box: The Unfriendly Skies: Settling the Longest Running Trade Dispute. Import Quotas: Theory. Case Study: Tariff-rate quota origin and its application in practice with oilseeds. Voluntary Export Restraints. Local Content Requirements. Box: Healthcare Protection with Local Content Requirements. Other Trade Policy Instruments.

Krugman/Obstfeld/Melitz • International Economics: Theory & Policy, 12e, Global Edition

The Effects of Trade Policy: A Summary.

Summary APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 9: Tariffs and Import Quotas in the Presence of Monopoly. The Model with Free Trade. The Model with a Tariff. The Model with an Import Quota. Comparing a Tariff and a Quota.

Chapter 9

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The Instruments of Trade Policy

Chapter Overview

This chapter and the next three focus on international trade policy. Students will have heard in the media various arguments for and against restrictive trade practices. Some of these arguments are sound, and some are clearly not grounded in fact. This chapter provides a framework for analyzing the economic effects of trade policies by describing the tools of trade policy and analyzing their effects on consumers and producers in domestic and foreign countries. Case studies discuss actual episodes of restrictive trade practices. An instructor might try to underscore the relevance of these issues by having students scan newspapers and magazines for other timely examples of protectionism at work. The analysis presented here takes a partial equilibrium view, focusing on demand and supply in one market, rather than the general equilibrium approach followed in previous chapters. Import demand and export supply curves are derived from domestic and foreign demand and supply curves. There are a number of trade policy instruments analyzed in this chapter using these tools. Some of the important instruments of trade policy include specific tariffs, defined as taxes levied as a fixed charge for each unit of a good imported; ad valorem tariffs, levied as a fraction of the value of the imported good; export subsidies, which are payments given to a firm or industry that ships a good abroad; import quotas, which are direct restrictions on the quantity of some good that may be imported; voluntary export restraints, which are quotas on trading that are imposed by the exporting country instead of the importing country; and local content requirements, which are regulations that require that some specified fraction of a good is produced domestically. The import supply and export demand analysis assumes a large country tariff, in which the imposition of a tariff drives a wedge between prices in domestic and foreign markets, and increases prices in the country imposing the tariff and lowers the price in the other country by less than the amount of the tariff. This contrasts with most textbook presentations, which make the small country assumption that the domestic internal price equals the world price plus the tariff. The chapter also discusses how the actual protection provided by a tariff may not equal the tariff rate if imported intermediate goods are used in the production of the protected good. The proper measurement, the effective rate of protection, is described in the text and calculated for a sample problem. The analysis of the costs and benefits of trade restrictions require tools of welfare analysis. The text explains the essential tools of consumer and producer surplus. Consumer surplus on each unit sold is defined as the difference between the actual price and the amount that consumers would have been willing to pay for the product. Geometrically, consumer surplus is equal to the area under the demand curve and above the price of the good. Producer surplus is the difference between the minimum amount for which a producer is willing

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to sell his product and the price that he actually receives. Geometrically, producer surplus is equal to the area above the supply curve and below the price line. These tools are fundamental to the student’s understanding of the implications of trade policies and should be developed carefully. The costs of a tariff include distortionary efficiency losses in both consumption and production. A tariff provides gains from terms of trade improvement when and if it lowers the foreign export price. Summing the areas in a diagram of internal demand and supply provides a method for analyzing the net loss or gain from a tariff. The gain from a tariff is larger the greater is the decrease in foreign export price from the tariff (as the tariff-imposing country is able to pass some of the costs of the tariff on to foreign exporters). Because large countries will have a larger influence on export prices than small countries, a large country is more likely to gain and, therefore, impose an import tariff. A case study covers the winners and losers of the Trump administration’s trade war. The study shows that consumers and the government sector paid higher prices for imported goods. In addition, U.S. agricultural exports fell by 63% following the imposition of tariffs and farm bankruptcies increased by 24% in 2019. Other instruments of trade policy can be analyzed with this method. An export subsidy operates in exactly the reverse fashion of an import tariff. A text box covers the 17-year long trade dispute over aircraft subsidies and tax rebates. The dispute was finally resolved in 2021. . An import quota has similar effects as an import tariff upon prices and quantities, but revenues, in the form of quota rents, accrue to the quota license holders, who are often foreign producers. For example, a quota on sugar imported into the United States has greatly increased the fortunes of foreign sugar producers (many of which are owned by American sugar refiners), at a significant cost to American consumers. Estimates place the cost of each job in the American sugar industry “saved” by protection at $1.75 million, and this number does not include the job losses in the food industry created by higher sugar prices. Total consumer loss is estimated to be over $3.5 billion in terms of higher prices paid by consumers. Since this loss equates to about $30 per U.S. household the average consumer is unaware of the costs of protectionism. Voluntary export restraints are a form of quotas in which import licenses are held by foreign governments. For example, Japan voluntarily limited exports of cars to the United States to forestall any import tariffs on cars from Japan in the wake of the oil price spike of 1979. The net result of these VER’s was to raise the price of Japanese cars, with the gains accruing directly to Japanese manufacturers. A similar story is happening now with voluntary export restraints on solar panels exported from China to the European Union. Another trade instrument is to mandate local content requirements. These raise the price of imports as well as domestic goods competing with imports but do not yield either tariff revenue or quota rents. The recent

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The Instruments of Trade Policy

construction of the new Bay Bridge linking San Francisco and Oakland is used as a case study. Federal funding was available for this project but would have required the state of California to use a much more costly American contractor as opposed to the significantly cheaper Chinese bid. In the end, the bridge was built through local bonds rather than federal funding because of the local content requirement of federal funding. The Appendix discusses tariffs and import quotas in the presence of a domestic monopoly. Free trade eliminates the monopoly power of a domestic producer, and the monopolist mimics the actions of a firm in a perfectly competitive market, setting output such that marginal cost equals world price. A tariff raises domestic price. The monopolist, still facing a perfectly elastic demand curve, sets output such that marginal cost equals internal price. A monopolist faces a downward-sloping demand curve under a quota. A quota is not equivalent to a tariff in this case. Domestic production is lower and internal price higher when a particular level of imports is obtained through the imposition of a quota rather than a tariff.

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Answers to Textbook Problems

1. The import demand equation, MD, is found by subtracting the Home supply equation from the Home demand equation. This results in MD = D – S = 50 – 10P – 10 – 10P = 40 – 20P. Without trade, domestic prices and quantities adjust such that import demand is 0. Thus, the price in the absence of trade is 2. 2. a.

Foreign’s export supply curve is, XS = S* – D* = 60 – 10P – 20 – 10P = –40 + 20P In the absence of trade, the price is 2.

b. When trade occurs, export supply is equal to import demand, XS = MD. Thus, using the equations from Problems 1 and 2a, XS = MD → –40 + 20P = 40 – 20P → P = 2, and the volume of trade is 30. 3. a. The new MD curve is 40 − 20 × (P + t) where t is the specific tariff rate, equal to 1.5. (Note: In solving these problems, you should be careful about whether a specific tariff or ad valorem tariff is imposed. With an ad valorem tariff, the MD equation would be expressed as MD = 40 − 20 × (1 + t)P. The equation for the export supply curve by the foreign country is unchanged. MD = XS 40 − 20 × (P + 1.5) = 20P − 40 40 − 20 − 30 = 20P − 40 40P = 50 PWorld = 1.25 .

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PHome = PWorld + t = 1.25 + 1.5 = 2.75 Trade = MD = XS = (20 × 1.25) − 40 = 15 DHome = 50 − (10 × 2.75) = 22.5 SHome = 10 + (10 × 2.75) = 37.5 DForeign = 60 − (10 × 1.25) = 47.5 SForeign = 20 + (10 × 1.25) = 32.5 b. and c. The welfare of the Home country is best studied using the combined numerical and graphical solutions presented below, where the areas in the figure are: a. 22.5 × (2.75 − 2) − 1.5 × (22.5 − 20) × (2.75 − 2) = 14.0625 b. 1.5 × (22.5 − 20) × (2.75 − 2) = 2.8125 c. (37.5 − 22.5) × (2.75 − 2) = 11.25 d. 1.5 × (22.5 − 20) × (2.75 − 2) = 2.8125 e. (37.5 − 22.5) × (2.75 − 2) = 11.25 Consumer surplus change: −(a + b + c + d) = −30.9375. Producer surplus change: a = 14.0625. Government revenue change: e = 11.25. Government revenue change: c + e = 11.25. Efficiency losses b + d = 5.625 are exceeded by terms of trade gain e = 11.25. (Note: In the calculations for the a, b, and d areas, a figure of 0.5 shows up. This is because we are measuring the area of a triangle, which is one-half of the area of the rectangle defined by the product of the horizontal and vertical sides.) 4. Using the same methodology as in Problem 3, when the Home country is very small relative to the Foreign country, its effects on the terms of trade are expected to be much smaller. The small country is much more likely to be hurt on the imposition of a tariff. Indeed, the intuition is shown in this problem. The free trade equilibrium is now at the price of $1.83 and the trade volume is now 27.45. With the imposition of a tariff of 1.5 by Home, the new world price is $0.583, the internal Home price is $2.083. Home demand is 29.17, Home supply is 30.83 and the volume of trade is 1.66. When Foreign is relatively small, the effect of a tariff on the world price is smaller than when Foreign is relatively large. When Foreign and Home were closer in size, a tariff of 1.5 by Home lowered world price by 62.5%, whereas in this case the same tariff lowers world price by about 50%. In this case, the government revenues from the tariff equal 2.76, the consumer surplus loss is 30.78, the producer surplus gain is 19.02. The distortionary losses associated with the tariff (areas b + d) sum to 10.38 and the terms of trade gain (e) is 1.38. Clearly, in this small country example, the

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distortionary losses from the tariff swamp the terms of trade again. The general lesson is that the smaller economy, the larger the losses from a tariff because the terms of trade gains are smaller. 5. The effective rate of protection (ERP) is defined as (Vt − Vw)/Vw, where Vt is the value added under protection and Vw is the value added under free trade. We define value added as the difference between the price of the final good and the price of components. So, Vw = $200 − $100 = $100. With a 50% tariff on bicycles (and a 0% tariff on components), Vt = ($200 × 1.5) − $100 = $300 − $100 = $200. Therefore, the ERP = (200 − 100)/100 = 100%. 6. The effective rate of protection takes into consideration the costs of imported intermediate goods. Here, 65% of the cost can be imported, suggesting with no distortion, Home value added would be 35%. A 25% increase in the price of sugar, though, means Home value added could be as high as 60% (35% + 25%). Effective rate of protection = (Vt − Vw)/Vw = (65 − 35)/35 = 71.42%, where Vt is the value added in the presence of trade and Vw is the value added without trade distortion. 7.

We first use Foreign’s export supply and Home’s import demand curves to determine the new world price. The Foreign supply of exports curve, with a subsidy of 1.5 per unit becomes XS = −40 + 20(1 + 1.5) P. The equilibrium world price is 1.15 and the internal Foreign price is 2.65. The volume of trade is 17. The Foreign demand and supply curve are used to determine the costs and benefits of the subsidy. Construct a diagram similar to that in the text and calculate the area of various polygons. The government must provide (2.65 − 1.15) × 17 = 25.5 units of output to support the subsidy. Foreign producer surplus rises due to the subsidy by amount of 12.19 units of output. Foreign consumer surplus falls due to higher price to 26.81 units of the good. Thus, the net loss to Foreign due to the subsidy is 26.81 + 25.5 − 12.19 = 40.12 units of output.

8. a. True, empirical estimates suggest that the cost to society of jobs saved through tariffs is exorbitantly high and tariffs may lead to an increased unemployment in non-protected industries. b. True, especially when they are enacted directly, without a transition period. These disagreements hurt the incomes of each country involved in the disputes. c. This kind of policy might reduce smartphone production in China, but would also increase the price of smartphones in the United States. This would result in the same welfare loss associated with a quota. 9.

At a price of $20/box of chocolates, Cologne imports 100 boxes. A quota limiting the import of chocolates to 50 boxes has the following effects: a.

Set MD = 50 to find the post-quota price: 500 − 15P = 50. The price of chocolate rises to $30/box.

b. The quota rents are ($30 − $20)  50 = $500.

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c. The consumption distortion loss is 0.5  100 boxes  $20/box = $1000. d. The production distortion loss is 0.5  50 boxes  $30/box = $750. 10. Tariff and nontariff barriers are linked when talking about certain products, such as textiles and pharmaceuticals. If the country wants to address food safety, human health, animal, and plant health, it might manipulate the terms of trade. Another reason could be in response of political incumbents to special interest groups, which involve consumer health, and safety. Political economy motives are likely to lead to policies that shelter favored producers and reduce trade flows at the expense of national welfare. 11. It would improve the income distribution within the economy because wages in manufacturing would increase, and real incomes for others in the economy would decrease due to higher prices for manufactured goods. This is true only under the assumption that manufacturing wages are lower than all others in the economy. If they were higher than others in the economy, the tariff policies would worsen the income distribution.

Chapter 10 The Political Economy of Trade Policy ◼ Chapter Organization The Case for Free Trade Free Trade and Efficiency Additional Gains from Free Trade Rent Seeking Political Argument for Free Trade National Welfare Arguments against Free Trade The Terms of Trade Argument for a Tariff The Domestic Market Failure Argument against Free Trade How Convincing Is the Market Failure Argument? Income Distribution and Trade Policy Electoral Competition Collective Action Box: Politicians for Sale: Evidence from the 1990s Modeling the Political Process Who Gets Protected? International Negotiations and Trade Policy The Advantages of Negotiation International Trading Agreements: A Brief History The Uruguay Round Trade Liberalization Administrative Reforms: From the GATT to the WTO Benefits and Costs Box: Settling a Dispute—and Creating One Case Study: Testing the WTO’s Metal The End of Trade Agreements Box: Do Agricultural Subsidies Hurt the Third World? Preferential Trading Agreements Box: Free Trade Area versus Customs Unions

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Box: Brexit Case Study: Trade Diversion in South America The Trans-Pacific Partnership Summary APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 10: Proving that the Optimum Tariff Is Positive Demand and Supply The Tariff and Prices The Tariff and Domestic Welfare

◼ Chapter Overview The models presented up to this point generally suggest that free trade maximizes national welfare, although it clearly is associated with income distributional effects. Most governments, however, maintain some form of restrictive trade practices. This chapter investigates reasons for this. One set of reasons concerns circumstances under which restrictive trade practices increase national welfare. Another set of reasons concerns the manner in which the interests of different groups are weighed by governments. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the motives for international trade negotiations and a brief history of international trade agreements. One recurring theme in the arguments in favor of free trade is the emphasis on related efficiency gains. As illustrated by the consumer/producer surplus analysis presented in the text, nondistortionary production and consumption choices that occur under free trade provide one set of gains from eliminating protectionism. Another level of efficiency gains arise because of economies of scale in production. Two additional arguments for free trade are introduced in this chapter. Free trade, as opposed to “managed trade,” provides a wider range of opportunities and thus a wider scope for innovation. The use of tariffs and subsidies to increase national welfare (such as a large country’s use of an optimum tariff), even where theoretically desirable, in practice may only advance the causes of special interests at the expense of the general public. When quantity restrictions such as quotas are involved, rent-seeking behavior—where companies expend resources to receive the benefits from quota licenses—can distort behavior and cause waste in the economy. Next, consider some of the arguments voiced in favor of restrictive trade practices. The arguments that protectionism increases overall national welfare have their own caveats. The success of an optimum tariff or an optimum (negative) subsidy by a large country to influence its terms of trade depends upon the absence of retaliation by foreign countries. Another set of arguments rests upon the existence of market failure. The distributional effects of trade policies will differ substantially if, for example, labor cannot

Chapter 10

The Political Economy of Trade Policy

be easily reallocated across sectors of the economy as suggested by movements along the production possibility frontier. Other proponents of protectionist policies argue that the key tools of welfare analysis, which apply demand and supply measures to capture social as well as private costs and benefits, are inadequate. They argue that tariffs may improve welfare when social and private costs or benefits diverge. In general, however, it is better to design policies that address these issues directly rather than indirectly through a tariff, which may have negative side effects. Students may better understand this concept by pointing out that a tariff is like a combined tax and subsidy. A well-targeted subsidy or tax leads to a confluence of social and private cost or benefit. A policy that combines both a subsidy and a tax has other effects that limit social welfare gains. Actual trade policy often cannot be reconciled with the prescriptions of basic welfare analysis. One reason for this is that the social accounting framework of policy makers does not match that implied by cost-benefit analysis. For example, policy makers may apply a “weighted social welfare analysis” that weighs gains or losses differently depending upon which groups are affected. Of course, in this instance there is the issue of who sets the weights and on the basis of what criteria. Also, trade policy may end up being used as a tool of income redistribution. Inefficient industries may be protected solely to preserve the status quo. Indeed, tariffs theoretically can be set at levels high enough to restrict trade in a product. Divergence between optimal theoretical and actual trade policy may also arise because of the manner in which policy is made. The benefits of a tariff are concentrated, while its costs are diffused. Well-organized groups whose individuals each stand to gain a lot by trade restrictions have a greater incentive to exert effort to influence trade policy. Though the aggregate losses of trade restrictions exceed the aggregate gains, the losses are much more spread out among a larger, but poorly organized group that has little individual effort to lobby against trade restrictions. International negotiations have led to mutual tariff reductions from the mid-1930s through the present. Negotiations that link mutually reduced protection have the political advantage of playing well-organized groups against each other rather than against poorly organized consumers. Trade negotiations also help avoid trade wars. This is illustrated by an example of the Prisoner’s dilemma as it relates to trade. The pursuit of self-interest may not lead to the best social outcome when each agent takes into account the other agent’s decision. Indeed, in the example in the text, uncoordinated policy leads to the worst outcome because protectionism is the best policy for each country to undertake unilaterally. Negotiations result in the coordinated policy of free trade and the best outcome for each country. The chapter concludes with a brief history of international trade agreements. The rules governing GATT are discussed, as are the real threats to its future performance as an active and effective instrument for moving toward freer trade. Also, the developments of the Uruguay Round are reviewed, including the creation of the

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WTO and the economic impact of the Round. Of note from this round was the phase-out of the Multi-Fiber Agreement, a set of tariffs and quotas on trade in textiles. Table 10-2 estimates that the phase-out of trade barriers in textiles has saved the United States roughly $11 billion since 2002. The chapter also notes that more recent multilateral negotiations (the Doha Round) have failed, largely over disagreements regarding agricultural subsidies and trade. This has been a disappointment to free trade proponents as it marks the first time a major multilateral trade round has failed to produce a substantial agreement. However, the failure of the Doha Round can be partially attributed to the success of previous rounds of trade negotiations. As the world moves closer and closer to free trade, the marginal gains from further reductions in trade barriers become smaller. This is highlighted by Table 10-5 in the text, which shows that even under the most ambitious proposals in the Doha Round, the gains from freer trade would only be about 0.18 percent of global income. The sources of failure of the Doha Round are echoed in the failure to enact the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Previous trade agreements had largely eliminated many traditional trade barriers like quotas and tariffs. The TPP focused on less concrete trade barriers like intellectual property rights and investor-state dispute settlement. As such, the simple logic of free trade was less resounding in advocating for this deal when balanced against its criticisms. Populist arguments that the TPP prioritized corporate interests over those of workers resonated politically and contributed to its failure. Similarly, the case of the UK’s departure from the European Union (Brexit) had less to do with concerns over free trade and more to do with another nontariff trade barrier: labor mobility. The cases of Doha, TPP, and Brexit suggest that the remaining barriers to completely free trade and full economic integration will be increasingly difficult to remove.

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Answers to Summary Questions (5, 6, 9)

If the main effect of DR-CAFTA was to increase clothing exports from the signatory nations to the United States, then the overall economic impact on the U.S. economy would be rather modest. Prior to 2004, the Multi-Fiber Arrangement (MFA) imposed quotas on textiles and apparel. As a result, these industries accounted for over 80 percent of the welfare costs of U.S. protectionism. However, the MFA was phased out in 2004 and the most recent estimate (see Table 10-2) puts the welfare costs of protection in these industries at only half a billion dollars. Thus, reducing trade barriers in clothing through the DR-CAFTA will only have a modest impact since trade in clothing has been pretty free since the end of the MFA.

The main problem with this view is that it assumes that the United States can pursue its own trade policies in a vacuum. Policies enacted in other countries will have effects in the United States just as

Chapter 10

The Political Economy of Trade Policy

U.S. trade policy will affect foreign countries. Thus, the United States has a legitimate interest in the trade policies of other countries, just as other countries have a legitimate interest in U.S. activities. Uncoordinated trade policies are likely to be inferior to those based on negotiations. By negotiating with each other, governments are better able both to resist pressure from domestic interest groups and to avoid trade wars of the kind illustrated by the Prisoners’ Dilemma example in the text. 9.

One possible justification for subsidizing the domestic production of rare earth metals is the terms of trade argument for protection. Because China dominates the production of these metals, it has enough market power to impose an export tax on these metals and raise the world price (much as Saudi Arabia does with oil exports). This exercise of power could lead to a welfare gain for China at the expense of the rest of the world. By subsidizing domestic production, the United States could dilute China’s market power and reduce the threat of higher prices on rare earth metals. However, the assumption that China could benefit from an export tax assumes that there would be no retaliation in other industries. If China were to impose an export tax on rare earth metals, what’s to stop the United States from imposing an import tariff on electronics from China? Thus, the threat of China imposing an export tax is perhaps not as large as one might suspect given its market power in this industry. Another potential justification for subsidizing domestic production would be if doing so would generate some social benefit in excess of the private benefit to producers. Perhaps there would be technological spillovers from mining these metals that would exceed any social costs of subsidizing domestic production. Of course, the opposite could well be true and the social cost of domestic production may be quite a bit higher than the social benefit given the large environmental impact of mining these metals. It is often difficult to pinpoint ex-ante which industries are subject to this kind of market failure and indirect intervention through trade policy may not be the best way to address these market failures.

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Answers to Textbook Problems 1. The arguments for free trade in this quote include: • Free trade allows consumers and producers to make decisions based upon the marginal cost and benefits associated with a good when costs and prices are undistorted by government policy. • The Philippines is “small,” so it will have little scope for influencing world prices and capturing welfare gains through an improvement of its terms of trade. • “Escaping the confines of a narrow domestic market” allows possible gains through economies of scale in production. • Free trade “opens new horizons for entrepreneurship,” creating opportunities for Filipino exporters to reach markets inaccessible without trade. • Special interests may dictate trade policy for their own ends rather than for the general welfare. Free trade policies may aid in halting corruption where these special interests exert undue or disproportionate influence on public policy.

Krugman/Obstfeld/Melitz • International Economics: Theory & Policy, 12e, Global Edition

The lower income of dairy farmers comes to the expense of consumers and taxpayers. This is potentially a valid argument for an export subsidy because we have a possible case of market failure. In this case, an export subsidy always produces more costs than benefits. Indeed, if the goal of policy is to stimulate the demand for the associated goods and services, the policies should be targeted directly at these goals.

This is potentially a valid argument for a tariff, because it is based on the assumed ability of the EU to affect world prices on economically certified foods. If the EU is concerned about higher prices in the future, it could use policies to minimize the potential future adverse shocks.

The increased wealth of farmers, due to the export subsidies and the potentially higher income to those who sell goods and services to the farmers, comes at the expense of consumers and taxpayers. Unless there is a domestic market failure, an export subsidy always produces more costs than benefits.

There might be external economies of scale associated with the domestic recycling programs. This is potentially a valid argument. But the gains to recycling companied must always be weighed against the higher costs to consumers and other industries that need to adopt a recycling program. A subsidy policy could be of help, because it might bring the advantage of directly dealing with the externalities associated with domestic recycling programs.

Consumers (which are also workers) have benefited from the stable price of coal. It the goal of policy is to soften the blow to coal workers, a more efficient policy would be direct payments to coal workers in order to aid their transition to other industries.

Without tariffs or subsidies, we compute domestic production as S = 10 + (10 × 5) = 60 and domestic consumption as D = 600 − (10 × 5) = 550, for imports of 490. a

To analyze the welfare effects of the tariff, it is helpful to draw a diagram for this small country. Note that since it is a small country, the tariff will not affect the world price, and the domestic price will rise by the full amount of the tariff, rising from 5 to 15. After the tariff is imposed, domestic production will rise to S = 10 + (10 × 15) = 160 and domestic consumption will fall to D = 600 − (10 × 15) = 450, for imports of 290. To analyze the welfare effect, we know that the tariff will lead to a net welfare loss as the gains in producer surplus and tariff revenue are smaller than the losses in consumer surplus. The net loss from the tariff is obtained by computing the two deadweight loss triangle yields: ½ × (10 × 100) + ½ × (10 × 100) = 1000.

Chapter 10

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Against the losses from tariff, we must consider the social gain from increased domestic production. After the tariff, domestic production increased by 100 units. The marginal social benefit from each unit of production is 15, so the social gain from increased production is 1500. Thus, the net effect of the tariff on total welfare is 1500 – 1000 = 500. b.

A production subsidy will cause domestic supply to rise by S = 10 + 10(5 + 10) = 160, an increase of 100 units as with the tariff. However, the domestic price will not change in this country, so consumers do not lose any welfare with this subsidy. Rather, the only efficiency loss comes from the production distortion costs, the leftmost triangle in the diagram. The net loss of the subsidy of 1/2(10 × 100) = 500. However, the increase in domestic production caused social welfare to rise by 500 × 5 = 2500, leading to a net welfare gain of 2000.

The production subsidy is a better targeted policy than the import tariff because it directly affects the decisions that reflect a divergence between social and private costs while leaving other decisions unaffected. The tariff has a double-edged function as both a production subsidy and a consumption tax.

The optimal subsidy would be for producers to fully internalize the externality by raising the subsidy to 20 per unit. Supply would then rise to S = 10 + 10(10 + 20) = 310. The production distortion would now be 1/2(20 × 100) = 1000, but the total social benefit from increasing production by 100 units would be 100 × 20 = 2000. The net welfare gain would be 1000.

Based on the diagram, the gain in producer surplus from the tariff is equal to the area bounded above by the price of 15, below by the price of 5 and to the right by the supply curve. This area is equal to 1000. Government tariff revenue is 948.43. The loss in consumer surplus is the area bounded above by

Krugman/Obstfeld/Melitz • International Economics: Theory & Policy, 12e, Global Edition

the price of 15, below the price of 5 and to the right by the demand curve. This area is 1085.6. Total welfare from the tariff is 1000 + 948.43 − 1085.6 = 862.83. However, if the government values every dollar of producer gain as worth of $5 of consumer surplus, then from the government’s perspective, the net gain from the tariff is equal to: Gain in Producer Surplus = 1,000 Political Gain in Producer Surplus = 1,000 × 5 = 5,000 Tariff Revenue = 948.43 Loss in Consumer Surplus = −1,718.37 Net Welfare Gain = 5,230.055 5. a.

This would lead to trade diversion because the lower-cost Japanese cars with an import value of €27,000 (but real costs of €18,000) would be replaced by Polish cars with a real cost of production equal to €20,000.

Before the addition of Poland to the EU, Japanese cars were not imported because their import price was €36,000. Thus, Poland’s addition to the EU would lead to trade creation because German cars that cost €30,000 to produce would be replaced by Polish cars that cost only €20,000.

This would lead to trade diversion because the lower-cost Japanese cars with an import value of €24,000 (but real costs of €12,000) would be replaced by Polish cars with a real cost of production equal to €20,000.

The subsidized productions in China through unfair and illegal trade practices represent a threat to the U.S. industry activity. The Chinese aluminum overproduction, along with the export tax policies, drives an increase of imports into the U.S., which means that the U.S. producers might go out of their businesses because of a downward effect on prices, market share and employment losses. Thus, the American manufacturers filled a WTO complaint against the Chinese producers of aluminum foil, calling for a negotiated agreement to address the overcapacity issue and the unfair trade practices, which distort the market and violates the U.S. law. The American manufacturers also ask for transparent procedures and focus on the unique characteristics of the aluminum industry, which has generally benefited from fair international trade in comparison to the steel industry. That would address the global industry as a whole on a course of expansion, creating more jobs, and opportunities.

The optimal tariff argument rests on the idea that in a large country, tariff (or quota) protection in a particular market can lower the world price of that good. Therefore, it is possible that with a (small) tariff, the tariff revenue accruing to the importing country may more than offset the smaller welfare losses to consumers, smaller because prices have fallen somewhat due to the tariff itself. Basically, a

Chapter 10

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large country is able to get foreign producers to pay for part of the tariff in the form of a reduced world price. 8.

The game is no longer a Prisoners’ Dilemma. As the chapter discusses, protectionist measures are welfare reducing in their own right. Each country would have an incentive to engage in free trade no matter what the strategy of the other country. Only in a more complex dynamic game in which a trade partner will only open its markets if the home country threatens sanctions (and the threats are only credible if occasionally carried out) would we find any welfare-enhancing reason to use a tariff.

The possibility that the labor used in the agricultural sector would be unemployed in case of a free market is explained by the domestic market failure argument. If the labor market cannot deliver full employment for a free trade case, then a policy of subsidizing labor-intensive industries, like agriculture, is the best approach. These imperfections in the internal functioning of an economy might interfere in its external economic relations. But any proposed trade policy should always be compared with a purely domestic policy aimed at correcting the same problem. If the domestic policy appears to be costly or has undesirable side effects, the trade policy is even less desirable, even though the costs are less apparent. The critics of this argument say that this trade policy is adopted not because its benefits exceed its costs, but because the public fails to understand its true costs. It is always preferable to deal with market failures as directly as possible, because effects can lead to unintended distortions of incentives elsewhere in the economy.

Chapter 11 Trade Policy in Developing Countries

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Chapter Organization

Import-Substituting Industrialization. The Infant Industry Argument. Promoting Manufacturing Through Protection. Case Study: Export-Led Strategy. Results of Favoring Manufacturing: Problems of Import-Substituting Industrialization. Trade Liberalization since 1985. Trade and Growth: Takeoff in Asia. Box: India’s Boom.

Summary ■

Chapter Overview

The final two chapters on international trade, Chapters 11 and 12, discuss trade policy considerations in the context of specific issues. Chapter 11 focuses on the use of trade policy in developing countries and Chapter 12 focuses on new controversies in trade policy. Although there is great diversity among developing countries, they share some common policy concerns. These include the development of domestic manufacturing industries, the uneven degree of development within the country, and the desire to foster economic growth and improve living standards. This chapter discusses both the successful and unsuccessful trade policy strategies that have been applied by developing countries in attempts to address these concerns.

Chapter 11

Trade Policy in Developing Countries

Many developing countries pose the creation of a significant manufacturing sector as a key goal of economic development. One commonly voiced argument for protecting manufacturing industries is the infant industry argument, which states that developing countries have a potential comparative advantage in manufacturing and can realize that potential through an initial period of protection. This argument assumes market failure in the form of imperfect capital markets or the existence of externalities in production. Such a market failure makes the social return to production higher than the private return. Without some government support, the argument goes, the amount of investment that will occur in this industry will be less than socially optimal levels. Government support can theoretically raise investment up to the socially optimal level. Given these arguments, many nations have attempted import-substituting industrialization, where government support is focused on those industries that compete directly with imports. In the 1950s and 1960s, the strategy was quite popular and did lead to a dramatic reduction in imports in some countries. The overall result, though, was not a success. The infant industry argument did not always hold, as protection could let young industries survive but could not make them efficient. The methods used to protect industries were often complex and overlapped across industries, in some cases leading to exorbitantly high rates of protection. Furthermore, protection often led to an inefficiently small scale of production within countries by creating competition over monopoly profits that would not have existed without protection. By the late 1980s, most countries had shifted away from the strategy, and the chapter includes a case study of Mexico’s change from import substitution to a more open strategy. Since 1985, many developing countries have abandoned import substitution and pursued (sometimes aggressively) trade liberalization. The chapter notes two sides of the experience. On the one hand, trade has gone up considerably and changed in character. Developing countries export far more of their GDP than prior to liberalization, and more of it is in manufacturing as opposed to primary commodities. On the other hand, the growth experience of these countries has not been universally good, and it is difficult to tell if the success stories are due to trade or due to reforms that came at the same time as liberalization. While countries such as the “Asian Tigers,” China and India, have experienced spectacular rates of growth following trade liberalization, only part of this growth can be attributed to trade reform. Furthermore, countries such as Brazil and Mexico that have also moved toward freer trade have not experienced the same rates of economic growth.

■ 1.

Answers to Textbook Problems

The countries that seem to benefit most from international trade include many of the countries of the Pacific Rim: South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Indonesia, and others. Though

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the experience of each country is somewhat different, most of these countries employed some kind of infant industry protection during the beginning phases of their development but then withdrew protection relatively quickly after industries became competitive on world markets. Concerning whether their experiences lend support to the infant industry argument or argue against it is still a matter of controversy. However, it appears that it would have been difficult for these countries to engage in export-led growth without some kind of initial government intervention. Similarly, both China and India have experienced rapid economic growth following economic liberalization and increased openness. Although part of their growth may be attributed to a reduction in trade barriers, other factors certainly played a role. This disparity is underscored by the fact that nations such as Mexico and Brazil also liberalized trade but have yet to see comparable rates of economic growth. 2.

Economists do criticize the infant industry argument, and recommend governments to use it cautiously. First problem is related to the fact that it is not always a good idea to start a business today that will have a comparative advantage in the future. Second problem is related to the protection of manufacturers that will lead to a false competitiveness. The countries that seem to benefit most from international trade include many of the countries of the Pacific Rim: South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Indonesia, and others. Though the experience of each country is somewhat different, most of these countries employed some kind of infant industry protection during the beginning phases of their development but then withdrew protection relatively quickly after industries became competitive on world markets. Concerning whether their experiences lend support to the infant industry argument or argue against it is still a matter of controversy. However, it appears that it would have been difficult for these countries to engage in export-led growth without some kind of initial government intervention. Similarly, both China and India have experienced rapid economic growth following economic liberalization and increased openness. Although part of their growth may be attributed to a reduction in trade barriers, other factors certainly played a role. This disparity is underscored by the fact that nations such as Mexico and Brazil also liberalized trade but have yet to see comparable rates of economic growth.

The initial high costs of production would justify infant industry protection if the costs to the society during the period of protection were less than the future stream of benefits from a mature, low-cost industry.

b. Country A will not factor in how its investment benefits the society for only 10 percent, yielding an inefficiently low level of investment relative to the social optimum. However, Country B will factor in how its investment benefits the society, as it uses 70 percent for domestic content. For

Chapter 11

Trade Policy in Developing Countries

Country B, there is a stronger case for infant industry protection, because of the existence of market failure in the form of the appropriability of technology. 4. Each of the countries in Figure 11.3 experienced major changes in their economic policies, a dramatic acceleration in their growth, also reduced government intervention, and moving toward free trade policies. The first success story was South Korea, as it was the first among the three countries to openup its economy at the beginning of 1960s. China did this at the end of 1970s, and India at the beginning of 1990s. Their success stories demonstrated the wrong arguments in favor of applying import substituting industrialization on long term. They are characterized by very high ratios of trade to national income and by extremely high growth rates. In each case, the policy reforms were followed by a large increase in the economy’s openness based on an export-oriented growth approach. The most spectacular changes appeared in China, where the centrally planned economy was turned into a market economy, in which the profit motive had relatively free rein. But India experienced some dramatic changes too. India’s participation to world trade liberalization policies were of great importance, along with the removal of tariffs and import quotas. If China focuses more on trade with physical goods, India has become famous for its growing role in the global information technology industry. 5. In some countries, the infant industry argument simply did not appear to work well. Such protection will not create a competitive manufacturing sector if there are basic reasons why a country does not have a competitive advantage in a particular area. This was particularly the case in manufacturing where many low-income countries lack skilled labor, entrepreneurs, and the level of managerial acumen necessary to be competitive in world markets. The argument is that trade policy alone cannot rectify these problems. Often manufacturing was also created on such a small scale that it made the industries noncompetitive where economies of scale are critical to being a low-cost producer. Moreover protectionist policies in less-developed countries have had a negative impact on incentives, which has led to “rent-seeking” or corruption.

Chapter 12 Controversies in Trade Policy

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Chapter Organization

Sophisticated Arguments for Activist Trade Policy. Technology and Externalities. Imperfect Competition and Strategic Trade Policy. Box: A Warning from Intel’s Founder. Case Study: When the Chips Were Up. Globalization and Low-Wage Labor. The Anti-Globalization Movement. Trade and Wages Revisited. Labor Standards and Trade Negotiations. Environmental and Cultural Issues. The WTO and National Independence. Case Study: A Tragedy in Bangladesh. Globalization and the Environment. Globalization, Growth, and Pollution. The Problem of “Pollution Havens.” The Carbon Tariff Dispute. Trade Shocks and their Impact on Communities.

Summary .

Chapter 12

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Controversies in Trade Policy

Chapter Overview

Although the text has shown why, in general, free trade is a good policy, this chapter considers two controversies in trade policy that challenge free trade. The first regards strategic trade policy. Proponents of activist government trade intervention argue that certain industries are desirable and may be underfunded by markets or dominated by imperfect competition and warrant some government intervention. The second controversy regards the recent debate over the effects of globalization on workers, the environment, and sovereignty. While the anti-globalization arguments often lack sound structure, their visceral nature demonstrates that the spread of trade is extremely troubling to some groups. As seen in the previous chapters, activist trade policy may be justified if there are market failures. One important type of market failure involves externalities present in high-technology industries due to their knowledge creation. Existence of externalities associated with research and development and high technology make the private return to investing in these activities less than their social return. This means that the private sector will tend to invest less in high-technology sectors than is socially optimal. Although there may be some case for intervention, the difficulties in targeting the correct industry and understanding the quantitative size of the externality make effective intervention complicated. To address this market failure of insufficient knowledge creation, the first best policy may be to directly support research and development in all industries. Still, although it is a judgment call, the technology spillover case for industrial policy probably has better footing in solid economics than any other argument. Another set of market failures arises when imperfect competition exists. Strategic trade policy by a government can work to deter investment and production by foreign firms and raise the profits of domestic firms. An example is provided in the text that illustrates the case where the increase in profits following the imposition of a subsidy can actually exceed the cost of a subsidy to an imperfectly competitive industry if domestic firms can capture profits from foreign firms. Although this is a valid theoretical argument for strategic policy, it is nonetheless open to criticism in choosing the industries that should be subsidized and the levels of subsidies to these industries. These criticisms are associated with the practical aspects of insufficient information and the threat of foreign retaliation. The case study on the attempts to promote the semiconductor chips industry shows that neither excess returns nor knowledge spillovers necessarily materialize even in industries that seem perfect for activist trade policy. The next section of the chapter examines the anti-globalization movement. In particular, it examines the concerns over low wages in poor countries. Standard analysis suggests that trade should help poor countries and, in particular, help the abundant factor (labor) in those countries. Protests in Seattle, which shut down

Krugman/Obstfeld/Melitz • International Economics: Theory & Policy, 12e, Global Edition

WTO negotiations, and subsequent demonstrations at other meetings showed, though, that protestors either did not understand or did not agree with this analysis. The concern over low wages in poor countries is a revision of arguments in Chapter 2. Analysis in the current chapter shows again that trade should help the purchasing power of all workers and that if anyone is hurt, it is the workers in labor-scarce countries. The low wages in export sectors of poor countries are higher than they would be without the export-oriented manufacturing, and although the situation of these workers may be more visible than before, that does not make it worse. Practically, the policy issue is whether or not labor standards should be part of trade pacts. Although such standards may act in ways similar to a domestic minimum wage, developing countries fear that such standards would be used as a protectionist tool. A case study on the 2013 collapse of a garment factory in Bangladesh highlights this tension. The Bangladeshi garment industry would not be globally competitive if it had to raise labor standards to rich country standards. Bangladeshi garment workers, though very poorly paid by rich country standards, earn more than workers in non-export sectors. A potential solution would be for consumers in rich countries to pay more for goods certified to have been produced under improved labor standards, thereby giving producers in poor countries both the means and the incentive to improve labor standards. This would require trust among consumers that the certification process is accurate, however. Globalization raises questions of cultural independence and national sovereignty. Specifically, many countries are disturbed by the WTO’s ability to overturn laws that do not seem to be trade restrictions but which nonetheless have trade impacts. This point highlights the difficulty of advancing trade liberalization when the clear impediments to trade—tariffs or quotas—have been removed, yet national policies regarding industry promotion or labor and environmental standards still need to be reformed. This chapter also examines the link between trade and the environment. In general, production and consumption can cause environmental damage. Yet, as a country’s GDP per capita grows, the environmental damage done first grows and then eventually declines as the country gets rich enough to begin to protect the environment. As trade has lifted incomes of some countries, it may have been bad for the environment—but largely by making poor countries richer, an otherwise good thing. In theory, there could be a concern about “pollution havens,” that is countries with low environmental standards that attract “dirty” industries. There is relatively little evidence of this phenomenon thus far. Furthermore, the pollution in these locations tends to be localized and is therefore better left to national rather than international policy. An example of pollution that crosses borders is greenhouse gases, and this chapter discusses the cap and trade system currently being debated in the U.S. Congress. Part of this policy aimed at reducing carbon emissions is an imposition of a “carbon tariff” on imports from countries that do not have their own carbon taxes. Proponents argue that .

Chapter 12

Controversies in Trade Policy

such tariffs are necessary to prevent production from shifting to pollution havens and to reduce the overall level of carbon emissions, while opponents argue that these tariffs are simply more protectionism masquerading as environmental regulation. The chapter concludes with a discussion of the 2016 Autor, Dorn, and Hanson study that examines the effects of the rapid growth in Chinese exports to the United States since 1991. Though the benefits of trade have likely been larger than the costs, these costs have been concentrated within specific industries and within certain communities. Industries tend to be geographically concentrated (taking advantage of external economies of scale), so when an industry collapses due to trade, the losses are heavily concentrated within certain communities. These losses have been magnified by a reluctance of U.S. workers to move away from economically depressed regions. These concentrated losses from trade may help to explain the recent success of protectionist political movements.

■ 1.

Answers to Textbook Problems

The main disadvantage is that strategic trade policy can lead to both “rent-seeking” and beggar-thyneighbor policies, which can increase one country’s welfare at the other country’s expense. In a vacuum, strategic trade policy could improve a country’s welfare, but this ignores the possibility of retaliation. Retaliatory trade restrictions can trigger a trade war in which every country is worse off in the long run. Furthermore, it can be difficult to identify both which industries to subsidize and how much to subsidize them. Failure to correctly identify these factors can lead to a net loss from a subsidy.

If everyone knows that an industry will grow rapidly, private markets will funnel resources into the industry even without government support. There will be need for special government action only if there is some market failure; the prospect of growth by itself is not enough.

The results of basic research may be appropriated by a wider range of firms and industries than the results of research applied to specific industrial applications, which generates competitive advantages for European companies. The benefits of the EU applied research would exceed the benefits from the EU basic research, as European companies will already have research targeted to their specific problems. According to the text in this chapter, the policy should seek to subsidize the knowledge that the companies cannot appropriate, in this case applied research will provide benefits that spill across borders to many European companies. Their competitive advantages may be countering market failures, even if industry practitioners often argue that focusing only on research activities is a narrow view of the problem.

Krugman/Obstfeld/Melitz • International Economics: Theory & Policy, 12e, Global Edition

A subsidy is effective when the firm in the other country does not produce when the domestic firm enters the market. As Tables 12-1 and 12-2 show, a subsidy may present a credible threat of entry and deter production by the other firm: A subsidy encourages Airbus to produce and Boeing not to produce. However, if the numbers in the table are incorrect and Boeing would continue to produce even if Airbus received a subsidy and entered (perhaps because Boeing is the relatively more efficient producer), then the subsidy to Airbus would generate a net cost to Europe. Another key assumption is that the subsidy would not raise costs to consumers in the home country. If it did, then we would need to factor in this loss against the benefit from capturing foreign profits.

With protection, the exporters could develop an efficient scale and be globally competitive, as they are already a part of the developed world. They will have a comparative advantage in all cases, even they don’t need such protection as subsidies. The question that arises here is if those exporters will be able to compete without subsidies. To get over market failures, the government could subsidize only innovation. The consumers might benefit only from the supposed high standard quality the retailer is saying to have, but not from the fact that any export subsidy reduces the price paid by foreign importers, which means consumers pay more than foreign consumers.

The main critique against the WTO with respect to environmental issues is that the WTO refuses to impose environmental standards on countries, but rather does not allow countries to discriminate against imported goods that are held to a different standard than domestically produced goods. In some respects, those opposed to globalization would rather see the WTO have more power than it actually claims for itself, power to impose environmental laws as well as resolve trade disputes. However, the WTO does in one sense intervene in environmental issues of member countries by forcing member countries to apply the same standards to imported goods as to domestically produced goods.

The French may be following an active nationalist cultural policy as an economic or strategic trade policy to the extent that cultural activities, such as art, music, fashion, and cuisine, are linked to other French major industries. Indeed, the fashion industry is tied to the huge textile industry, as well as to the retail sector and advertising services. One could argue that the promotion of fashion, art, and music will benefit both tourism, and these large strategic trade sectors of the French economy. However, the existence of market failures is not clearly documented in the cultural sector except to the extent that there are other less tangible externalities. Furthermore, the cultural promotions are not, in economic terms, the first best approach to supporting larger industries.

Suppose that there were no tariffs on imports in a country that had value-added taxes. This would give an incentive for domestic firms to locate their production abroad and export their goods to that country

Chapter 12

Controversies in Trade Policy

to avoid the value-added tax. Thus, a tariff on imports is necessary to maintain the same relative price between domestically produced and imported goods. Similarly, the carbon tariff is put into place to prevent domestic firms from moving their production to a pollution haven with lax environmental regulations. By imposing a carbon tariff on imports, this incentive is reduced, and the overall level of pollution (especially important when dealing with trans-boundary pollution like carbon emissions) will be reduced. An objection over this tariff is that it may be discriminating between domestic and foreign goods. This would hold if it would be more costly for a foreign firm to reduce its carbon emissions than a domestic firm, thus giving an artificial advantage to domestic firms. 9.

The Autor et al. paper found that the losses from trade tend to be geographically concentrated. Industries tend to cluster geographically, so if an industry collapses due to trade, these losses will be localized. The job losses from this industry will not only be felt by those who lose their jobs, but also by the local economy that depended upon consumption from the workers in these industries. For example, if a factory shuts down, the factory workers who lost their jobs will go out to dinner less often, buy new appliances less frequently, etc. There will thus be less labor demand in places like restaurants, retail outlets, etc. This result does not contradict the usual models of trade that job losses in one industry are offset by gains in other industries. However, the gains and losses do not occur in the same place. While it is possible for those who lost their jobs in one industry to move to an expanding industry, this would require them to not only acquire the skills needed in the growing industry, but to also physically move to a new location. The results of the Autor et al study indicate that there is significantly less labor mobility among U.S. workers than had been previously assumed.

Chapter 13 National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments

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Chapter Organization

The National Income Accounts. National Product and National Income. Capital Depreciation and International Transfers. Gross Domestic Product. National Income Accounting for an Open Economy. Consumption. Investment. Government Purchases. The National Income Identity for an Open Economy. An Imaginary Open Economy. The Current Account and Foreign Indebtedness. Saving and the Current Account. Private and Government Saving. Box: The Mystery of the Missing Deficit. The Balance of Payments Accounts. Examples of Paired Transactions. The Fundamental Balance of Payments Identity.

Chapter 13

National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments

The Current Account, Once Again. The Capital Account. The Financial Account. Statistical Discrepancy. Box: Multinationals’ Profit Shifting and Ireland’s Volatile GDP Official Reserve Transactions. Case Study: The Assets and Liabilities of the World’s Biggest Debtor.

Summary ■ Chapter Overview This chapter introduces the international macroeconomics section of the text. The chapter begins with a brief discussion of the focus of international macroeconomics. You may want to contrast the type of topics studied in international trade, such as the determinants of the patterns of trade and the gains from trade, with the issues studied in international finance, which include unemployment, savings, trade imbalances, and money and the price level. You can then “preview” the manner in which the theory taught in this section of the course will enable students to better understand important and timely issues such as the U.S. trade deficit, the experience with international economic coordination, the European Economic and Monetary Union, and the financial crises in Asia and other developing countries. The core of this chapter is a presentation of national income accounting theory and balance of payments accounting theory. A solid understanding of these topics proves useful in other parts of this course when students need to understand concepts such as the intertemporal nature of the current account or the way in which net export earnings are required to finance external debt. Students will have had some exposure to closed economy national income accounting theory in previous economics courses. You may want to stress that GNP can be considered the sum of expenditures on final goods and services or, alternatively, the sum of payments to domestic factors of production. You may also want to explain that separating GNP into different types of expenditures allows us to focus on the different determinants of consumption, investment, government spending, and net exports. An information box in the text discusses the mystery of the missing deficit. The global current account .

Krugman/Obstfeld/Melitz • International Economics: Theory & Policy, 12e, Global Edition

balance should sum to zero since some nations will run surpluses and other nations will run deficits and sum of the world’s deficits should equal the sum of the world’s surpluses. However, this is not the case. Between 1980 and 2003 the world’s current account balance was negative. Since 2004 the world’s measured current account has been positive. While these discrepancies are likely due to measurement errors the actual cause is still unknown. The global surplus remains a mystery that was $290 billion in 2019. The relationships among the current account, savings, investment, and the government budget deficit should be emphasized. It may be useful to draw an analogy between the net savings of an individual and the net savings of a country to reinforce the concept of the current account as the net savings of an economy. Extending this analogy, you may compare the net dissavings of many students when they are in college, acquiring human capital, and the net dissavings of a country that runs a current account deficit to build up its capital stock. You may also want to contrast a current account deficit that reflects a lot of investment with a current account deficit that reflects a lot of consumption to make the point that all current account deficits are not the same nor do they all warrant the same amount of concern. Balance of payments accounting will be new to students. The text stresses the double-entry bookkeeping aspect of balance of payments accounting. The 2019 U.S. balance of payments accounts provide a concrete example of these accounts. Note that the book uses the newest current/financial/capital account definitions. The old capital account is now the financial account. The current account is the same except that unilateral asset transfers (debt forgiveness or immigrants moving wealth with them) are now in the new capital account. Credits and debits are marked in the same manner; if money comes into a country, it is a credit. These changes were made in conjunction with the IMF’s new standards. A description of these new standards can be found in the Survey of Current Business article listed at the end of the references. The chapter includes a discussion of official reserve transactions. You may want to stress that, from the standpoint of financing the current account, these official capital flows play the same role as other financial flows. You may also briefly mention that there are additional macroeconomic implications of central-bank foreign asset transactions. A detailed discussion of these effects will be presented in Chapter 18. An information box in the text includes a discussion of profit shifting by multinationals to reduce their tax burden and its impact on national income accounts. For example, Ireland experienced a massive 25% growth rate in GDP in 2015 that was almost entirely fueled by transfers of intellectual property (IP) from multinationals to their Irish subsidiaries to take advantage of Ireland’s low corporate tax rates. This profit shifting, especially in IP intensive industries does little to affect productivity in source or destination countries, but it does have significant tax distribution effects. Many IP intensive multinationals are

Chapter 13

National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments

headquartered in the U.S. When they shift profits to subsidiaries in “tax haven” countries, this reduces tax revenues in the U.S. and increases the tax burden borne by U.S. households. The chapter concludes with a case study examining the foreign assets and liabilities of the United States. A breakdown of the different components of the U.S. international investment position is presented. Of particular importance is that although the United States is the world’s largest debtor, American debt relative to American GDP is significantly lower than many other countries. The chapter also includes a discussion of how the value of a nation’s foreign debt may be affected by exchange rate changes, a nice segue into the next chapter relating exchange rates and the asset market.

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Answers to Textbook Problems

1. The reason for including only the value of final goods and services in GNP, as stated in the question, is to avoid the problem of double counting. Double counting will not occur if intermediate imports are subtracted and intermediate exported goods are added to GNP accounts. Consider the sale of American made steel to Toyota and to General Motors. The steel sold to General Motors should not be included in GNP because the value of that steel is subsumed in the cars produced in the United States. The value of the steel sold to Toyota will not enter the national income accounts in a more finished state because the value of the Toyota goes toward Japanese GNP. The value of the steel should be subtracted from GNP in Japan because U.S. factors of production receive payment for it. Thus, we do want to count imports of intermediate goods (as a negative), to avoid double counting both domestic and foreign production. 2. Equation 13-2 can be written as CA = (Sp − I) + (T − G). Higher U.S. barriers to imports may have little or no impact upon private savings, investment, and the budget deficit. If there were no effect on these variables, then the current account would not improve with the imposition of tariffs or quotas. It is possible to tell stories in which the effect on the current account goes either way. For example, investment could rise in industries protected by the tariff, worsening the current account. (Indeed, tariffs are sometimes justified by the alleged need to give ailing industries a chance to modernize their plant and equipment.) On the other hand, investment might fall in industries that face a higher cost of imported intermediate goods as a result of the tariff. In general, permanent and temporary tariffs have different effects. The point of the question is that a prediction of the manner in which policies affect the current account requires a general-equilibrium, macroeconomic analysis. 3. a. The purchase of the Thailand stock is a debit in the Japan financial account. There is a corresponding credit in the Japan financial account when the Japanese pays with a check on his

Krugman/Obstfeld/Melitz • International Economics: Theory & Policy, 12e, Global Edition

Singapore bank account because his claims on Singapore fall by the amount of the check. This is a case in which a Japanese trades one foreign asset for another. b. Again, there is a Japan financial account debit as a result of the purchase of a Thailand stock by a Japanese. The corresponding credit in this case occurs when the Thailand seller deposits the Japanese check in his Thailand bank and that bank lends the money to a Thailand importer (in which case the credit will be in the Japan current account) or to an individual or corporation that purchases a Japanese asset (in which case the credit will be in the Japanese financial account). Ultimately, there will be some action taken by the bank, which results in a credit in the Japan balance of payments. c. The foreign exchange intervention by the Malaysian government involves the sale of a Japanese asset, the Yen it holds in Japan, and thus represents a debit item in the Japan financial account. The Malaysian citizens who buy the Yen may use them to buy Japanese goods, which would be a Japanese current account credit, or a Japanese asset, which would be a Japanese financial account credit. d. Suppose the company issuing the traveler’s check uses a checking account in Thailand to make payments. When this company pays the Thailand’s restaurateur for the meal, its payment represents a debit in the current account for Japan. The company issuing the traveler’s check must sell assets (depleting its checking account in Thailand) to make this payment. This reduction in the Thailand’s assets owned by that company represents a credit in the Japanese financial account. e. There is no credit or debit in either the financial or the current account because there has been no market transaction. f.

There is no recording in the Japan Balance of Payments of this offshore transaction.

4. The purchase of the gemstone is a current account debit for Mexico and a current account credit for Brazil. When the Brazilian Company deposits the money in its Panama bank, there is a financial account credit for Mexico and a corresponding debit for Brazil. If the transaction is in cash, then the corresponding debit for Brazil and credit for Mexico also show up in their financial accounts. Brazil acquires Mexican Pesos bills (an import of assets from Mexico and, therefore, a debit item in its financial account); Mexico loses the Pesos (an export of Pesos bills and, thus, a financial account credit). Notice that this last adjustment is analogous to what would occur under a gold standard (see Chapter 18[7]).

Chapter 13

5. a.

National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments

Because non-central bank financial inflows fell short of the current account deficit by $500 million, the balance of payments of Pecunia (official settlements balance) was $500 million. The country as a whole somehow had to finance its $1 billion current account deficit, so Pecunia’s net foreign assets fell by $1 billion.

b. By dipping into its foreign reserves, the central bank of Pecunia financed the portion of the country’s current account deficit not covered by private financial inflows. Only if foreign central banks had acquired Pecunian assets could the Pecunian central bank have avoided using $500 million in reserves to complete the financing of the current account. Thus, Pecunia’s central bank lost $500 million in reserves, which would appear as an official financial inflow (of the same magnitude) in the country’s balance of payments accounts. c.

If foreign official capital inflows to Pecunia were $600 million, the central bank now increased its foreign assets by $100 million. Put another way, the country needed only $1 billion to cover its current account deficit, but $1.1 billion flowed into the country (500 million private and 600 million from foreign central banks). The Pecunian central bank must, therefore, have used the extra $100 million in foreign borrowing to increase its reserves. The balance of payments is still −$500 million, but this now comprises $600 million in foreign central banks purchasing Pecunia assets and $100 million of Pecunia’s central bank purchasing foreign assets, as opposed to Pecunia selling $500 million in assets. Purchases of Pecunian assets by foreign central banks enter their countries’ balance of payments accounts as outflows, which are debit items. The rationale is that the transactions result in foreign payments to the Pecunians who sell the assets.

d. Along with noncentral bank transactions, the accounts would show an increase in foreign official reserve assets held in Pecunia of $600 million (a financial account credit, or inflow) and an increase Pecunian official reserve assets held abroad of $100 million (a financial account debit, or outflow). 6. A current account deficit or surplus is a situation that may be unsustainable in the long run. There are instances in which a deficit may be warranted, for example to borrow today to improve productive capacity in order to have a higher national income tomorrow. But for any period of current account deficit, there must be a corresponding period in which spending falls short of income (i.e., a current account surplus) in order to pay the debts incurred to foreigners. In the absence of unusual investment opportunities, the best path for an economy may be one in which consumption, relative to income, is smoothed out over time. The reserves of foreign currency held by a country’s central bank change with nonzero values of its official settlements balance. Central banks use their foreign currency reserves to influence exchange

Krugman/Obstfeld/Melitz • International Economics: Theory & Policy, 12e, Global Edition

rates. A depletion of foreign reserves may limit the central bank’s ability to influence or peg the exchange rate. For some countries (particularly developing countries), central-bank reserves may be important as a way of allowing the economy to maintain consumption or investment when foreign borrowing is difficult. A high level of reserves may also perform a signaling role by convincing potential foreign lenders that the country is creditworthy. The balance of payments of a reservecurrency center (such as the United States under the Bretton Woods system) raises special issues that are best postponed until Chapter 19. 7. The official settlements balance, also called the balance of payments, shows the net change in international reserves held by European Central Bank (ECB) relative to the change in euro reserves held by foreign Central Banks. This account provides a partial picture of the extent of intervention in the foreign exchange market. For example, suppose the Bank of Japan purchases euros and deposits them in its Singapore Dollar account in a Singapore bank. Although this transaction is a form of intervention, it would not appear in the official settlements balance of the ECB. Instead, when the Singapore bank credits this deposit in its account in a European bank, this transaction will appear as a private financial flow. 8.

A country could have a current account deficit and a balance of payments surplus at the same time if the financial and capital account surpluses exceeded the current account deficit. Recall that the balance of payments surplus equals the current account surplus plus the financial account surplus plus the capital account surplus. If, for example, there is a current account deficit of $100 million, but there are large capital inflows and the financial/capital account surplus is $102 million, then there will be a $2 million balance of payments surplus. This problem can be used as an introduction to intervention (or lack thereof) in the foreign exchange market, a topic taken up in more detail in Chapter 18. The government of the United States did not intervene in any appreciable manner in the foreign exchange markets in the first half of the 1980s. The “textbook” consequence of this is a balance of payments of zero, while the actual figures showed a slight balance of payments surplus between 1982 and 1985. These years were also marked by large current account deficits. Thus, the financial inflows into the United States between 1982 and 1985 exceeded the current account deficits in those years.

9. The weight of external debt is considered sustainable if the growth rate of the economy is at least equal to the rate of interest payment. In the case of South Africa, under the assumption that both - the assets and the liabilities, pay 6%, the net payments on the net foreign debt would be 3% which is barely unsustainable considering that the country had a very low GDP growth (between 0.5 and 1% for 2015– 2016) (see Article IV IMF Report (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2016 /cr16217.pdf).

Chapter 13

National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments

Under the existing circumstances, this situation already requires strong economic reforms as recommended by the IMF report. At 100% net foreign debt-to-GDP ratio, the net payments are at 6%. At this point, the country could face a financial crisis. 10. Switzerland is an attractive economy for the people close to its border and a lot of foreign cross-border commuters come to work in Switzerland, but reside in neighboring countries. Hence, the remuneration of these salaries are accounted for as expenses for the primary balance. 11. The case study states that U.S. foreign assets are equal to 137% of GDP and foreign liabilities are equal to 188% of GDP. Furthermore, 70% of U.S. foreign assets are in foreign currencies, and 100% of U.S. foreign liabilities are in dollars. From the foreign perspective, foreigners hold U.S. assets equal to 188% of U.S. GDP, and these are all in dollars. A 10% depreciation of the dollar would reduce the value of these foreign assets by 0.1 × 1 × 1.88 = 18.8% of GDP. Foreign liabilities are equal to 137% of GDP, but only 30% of these liabilities are in dollars. Thus, a 10% depreciation of the dollar would reduce foreign liabilities by 0.1 × 0.3 × 1.37= 4.1% of GDP. Thus, the net effect of a 10% dollar depreciation is a 14.7% reduction in the net foreign wealth of foreign countries. 12. To incorporate capital gains or losses, one would have to consider these valuation changes as part of national income. We would thus change Equation 13-1 to read: Y = C + I + G + X – M + “GAIN”. where “GAIN” is defined as the net capital gain on net foreign assets. Although such an adjustment would more directly measure the change in net foreign assets, it would not be as useful a measure of the income of a country. Nonrealized gains do not show up as income, nor do they provide the means to finance consumption or investment. So, it would be misleading to count this in the current account. In addition, it is most likely not done because of the difficulty of making these measurements. Many of the investments do not have clear market prices, making them difficult to value. 13. The international investment position is mostly composed of direct investment and portfolio investment, both of which correspond to debt instruments. There are two categories that countries fall into if you consider the relative figures or the gross figures. In relative terms (% of GDP), the main debtor countries are the countries that amass high external debts (Ireland, Greece, Cyprus, Portugal) as a result of the financial crisis. In gross terms, the main debtor countries are Spain, France, Italy, and the UK—but for different reasons: Spain and Italy have high external debts, whereas France and UK invest abroad. On the surplus side, the main creditors countries are (in relative terms) the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Malta, and Denmark; in gross terms Germany, and to a lesser extent, the Netherlands. These creditor countries invest and lend abroad.

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■

References

Christopher Bach. “U.S. International Transactions, Revised Estimates for 1982–1998.” Survey of Current Business 79 (July 1999), pp. 60–74. “The International Monetary Fund’s New Standards for Economic Statistics.” Survey of Current Business 76 (October 1996), pp. 37–47.

Chapter 14 Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Asset Approach

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Chapter Organization

Exchange Rates and International Transactions. Domestic and Foreign Prices. Exchange Rates and Relative Prices. The Foreign Exchange Market. The Actors.

Characteristics of the Market. Spot Rates and Forward Rates. Foreign Exchange Swaps. Futures and Options. The Demand for Foreign Currency Assets. Assets and Asset Returns.

Risk and Liquidity. Interest Rates. Exchange Rates and Asset Returns. A Simple Rule. Return, Risk, and Liquidity in the Foreign Exchange Market.

Krugman/Obstfeld/Melitz • International Economics: Theory & Policy, 12e, Global Edition

Equilibrium in the Foreign Exchange Market. Interest Parity: The Basic Equilibrium Condition. How Changes in the Current Exchange Rate Affect Expected Returns. The Equilibrium Exchange Rate. Interest Rates, Expectations, and Equilibrium. The Effect of Changing Interest Rates on the Current Exchange Rate. The Effect of Changing Expectations on the Current Exchange Rate. Case Study: What Explains the Carry Trade? Forward Exchange Rates and Covered Interest Rate Parity

Summary ■

Chapter Overview

The purpose of this chapter is to show the importance of the exchange rate in translating foreign prices into domestic values as well as to begin the presentation of exchange rate determination. Central to the treatment of exchange rate determination is the insight that exchange rates are determined in the same way as other asset prices. The chapter begins by describing how the relative prices of different countries’ goods are affected by exchange rate changes. This discussion illustrates the central importance of exchange rates for cross-border economic linkages. The determination of the level of the exchange rate is modeled in the context of the exchange rate’s role as the relative price of foreign and domestic currencies, using the uncovered interest parity relationship. The euro is used often in examples. Some students may not be familiar with the currency or aware of which countries use it; a brief discussion may be warranted. A full treatment of EMU and the theories surrounding currency unification appears in Chapter 21. The description of the foreign exchange market stresses the involvement of large organizations (commercial banks, corporations, nonbank financial institutions, and central banks) and the highly integrated nature of the market. The nature of the foreign exchange market ensures that arbitrage occurs quickly so that common rates are offered worldwide. A comparison of the trading volume in foreign exchange markets to that in other markets is useful to underscore how quickly price arbitrage occurs and equilibrium is restored. Forward foreign exchange trading, foreign exchange futures contracts, and foreign exchange options play an

Chapter 14

Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Asset Approach

important part in currency market activity. The use of these financial instruments to eliminate short-run exchange rate risk is described. The explanation of exchange rate determination in this chapter emphasizes the modern view that exchange rates move to equilibrate asset markets. The foreign exchange demand and supply curves that introduce exchange rate determination in most undergraduate texts are not found here. Instead, there is a discussion of asset pricing and the determination of expected rates of return on assets denominated in different currencies. Students may already be familiar with the distinction between real and nominal returns. The text demonstrates that nominal returns are sufficient for comparing the attractiveness of different assets. There is a brief description of the role played by risk and liquidity in asset demand, but these considerations are not pursued in this chapter. (The role of risk is taken up again in Chapter 18.) Substantial space is devoted to the topic of comparing expected returns on assets denominated in domestic and foreign currency. The text identifies two parts of the expected return on a foreign currency asset (measured in domestic currency terms): the interest payment and the change in the value of the foreign currency relative to the domestic currency over the period in which the asset is held. The expected return on a foreign asset is calculated as a function of the current exchange rate for given expected values of the future exchange rate and the foreign interest rate. The absence of risk and liquidity considerations implies that the expected returns on all assets traded in the foreign exchange market must be equal. It is thus a short step from calculations of expected returns on foreign assets to the uncovered interest parity condition (UIP). The foreign exchange market is shown to be in equilibrium only when UIP holds. Thus, for given interest rates and given expectations about future exchange rates, UIP determines the current equilibrium exchange rate. The interest parity diagram introduced here is instrumental in later chapters in which a more general model is presented. Because a command of this interest parity diagram is an important building block for future work, we recommend drills that employ this diagram. The result that a dollar appreciation makes foreign currency assets more attractive may appear counterintuitive to students—why does a stronger dollar reduce the expected return on dollar assets? The key to explaining this point is that, under the static expectations and constant interest rates assumptions, a dollar appreciation today implies a greater future dollar depreciation; so, an American investor can expect to gain not only the foreign interest payment but also the extra return due to the dollar’s additional future depreciation. The following diagram illustrates this point. In this diagram, the exchange rate at time t + 1 is expected to be equal to E. If the exchange rate at time t is also E, then expected depreciation is 0. If, however, .

Krugman/Obstfeld/Melitz • International Economics: Theory & Policy, 12e, Global Edition

the exchange rate depreciates at time t to E′, then it must appreciate to reach E at time t + 1. If the exchange rate appreciates today to E″, then it must depreciate to reach E at time t + 1. Thus, under static expectations, a depreciation today implies an expected appreciation and vice versa.

Figure 14-1 This pedagogical tool can be employed to provide some further intuition behind the interest parity relationship. Suppose that the domestic and foreign interest rates are equal. Interest parity then requires that the expected depreciation is equal to zero and that the exchange rate today and next period is equal to E. If the domestic interest rate rises, people will want to hold more domestic currency deposits. The resulting increased demand for domestic currency drives up the price of domestic currency, causing the exchange rate to appreciate. How long will this continue? The answer is that the appreciation of the domestic currency continues until the expected depreciation that is a consequence of the domestic currency’s appreciation today just offsets the interest differential. The text presents exercises on the effects of changes in interest rates and of changes in expectations of the future exchange rate. These exercises can help develop students’ intuition. For example, the initial result of a rise in U.S. interest rates is a higher demand for dollar-denominated assets and thus an increase in the price of the dollar. This dollar appreciation is large enough that the subsequent expected dollar depreciation just equalizes the expected return on foreign currency assets (measured in dollar terms) and the higher dollar interest rate. An interesting case study looks at a situation in which interest rate parity may not hold: the carry trade. In a carry trade, investors borrow money in low-interest currencies and buy high-interest-rate currencies, often earning profits over long periods of time. However, this transaction carries an element of risk as the highinterest-rate currency may experience an abrupt crash in value. The case study discusses a popular carry trade in which investors borrowed low-interest-rate Japanese yen to purchase high-interest-rate Australian dollars. Investors earned high returns until 2008, when the Australian dollar abruptly crashed, losing 40% of its value. This was an especially large loss as the crash occurred amidst a financial crisis in which liquidity

Chapter 14

Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Asset Approach

was highly valued. Thus, when we factor in this additional risk of the carry trade, interest rate parity may still hold. The chapter concludes with a discussion of covered interest rate parity (CIP), which replaces the expected exchange rate from UIP with the forward exchange rate. When there is a high correlation between the forward exchange rate and the expected exchange rate, the CIP and UIP conditions are very similar. However, CIP failed to hold during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008 when there was increased uncertainty about the ability of banks to cover forward exchange rate contracts. Even after the financial crisis, CIP has failed to hold suggesting a profitable arbitrage opportunity for currency investors. This is an interesting puzzle given that fears of bank default are likely not the main explanation for the sustained failure of CIP over this period.

Krugman/Obstfeld/Melitz • International Economics: Theory & Policy, 12e, Global Edition

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Answers to Textbook Problems

1. At an exchange rate of 50 INR per SGD, a 135 INR haircut costs = 2.7 SGD. Thus, the haircut in Delhi is 5.5 times less expensive than a haircut in Singapore. The relative price is 2.7 SGD /15 SGD = 0.18. A haircut in Delhi costs 0.18 haircuts in Singapore. If the Rupee depreciates to 55 ING per SGD, the Delhi haircut will cost 2.45 SGD (5INR/SGD x 135), for a relative price of 2.45 /15 = 0.16. You have to give up 0.16 Singapore haircuts to get a Delhi haircut. The Delhi haircuts are even cheaper after the depreciation of the Rupee. 2. If it were cheaper to buy Israeli shekels with Swiss francs that were purchased with dollars than to directly buy shekels with dollars, then people would act upon this arbitrage opportunity. The demand for Swiss francs from people who hold dollars would rise, causing the Swiss franc to rise in value against the dollar. The Swiss franc would appreciate against the dollar until the price of a shekel would be exactly the same whether it was purchased directly with dollars or indirectly through Swiss francs. Take for example the exchange rate between the Argentine peso, the US dollar, the euro, and the British pound. One dollar is worth 68.8026 pesos, while a euro is worth 77.1927 pesos. To rule out triangular arbitrage, we need to see how many pesos you would get if you first bought euros with your dollars (at an exchange rate of 0.8913 euros per dollar), then used these euros to buy pesos. In other words, we need to compute EARG/USD = EEUR/USD × EARG/EUR = 0.8913*77.1927=68.8019. This is almost exactly (with rounding) equal to the direct rate of pesos per dollar. A similar procedure for the British pound shows that EARG/USD = EGBP/USD × EARG/GBP = 0.7939*86.6673=68.8052. Again, this is almost exactly equal to the direct rate of pesos per dollar. We need to say that triangular arbitrage is “approximately” ruled out for several reasons. First, rounding error means that there may be some small discrepancies between the direct and indirect exchange rates we calculate. Second, transactions costs on trading currencies will prevent complete arbitrage from occurring. That said, the massive volume of currencies traded make these transactions costs relatively small, leading to “near” perfect arbitrage. 3. The table below gives the exchange rates for the Argentine Peso, Chinese Yuan, Japanese Yen, Mexican Peso, and South African Rand against the US dollar, Euro, and British Pound. The fifth column shows the exchange rate determined as the exchange rate in terms of the currency per euro multiplied by the euros per dollar exchange rate (0.8913). The sixth column does the same calculation, but uses British pounds instead of euros (using 0.7939 pounds per dollar).

Argentina

EC/USD

EC/EUR

EC/GBP

EC/EUR*EEUR/USD

EC/GBP*EGBP/USD

68.8026

77.1927

86.6673

68.8019

68.8052

Chapter 14

Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Asset Approach

China

7.1099

7.9769

8.9560

7.1098

7.1102

Japan

108.825

122.0956

137.0816

108.8238

108.8291

Mexico

21.595

24.2284

27.2022

21.5948

21.5958

South Africa

16.9163

18.9791

21.3086

16.9161

16.9169

Comparing the second column to the fifth and six columns, we see that they are nearly identical. The small difference between these exchange rates is a result of small transaction costs involved in converting currencies that prevent these very minute price differences from being arbitraged. 4. When the Dirham depreciates versus the dollar, the costs to a Moroccan firm that imports petroleum will rise. This depresses its profits. On the other hand, that firm will be able to register a profit for its products priced in dollar (increasing its Dirham price without changing the dollar price), so there may be some offsetting effects. But, by and large, a firm that has substantial imported input costs does not relish a depreciating home currency. 5. The euro rates of return are as follows: a.

(€250,000 − €200,000) /€200,000 = 0.25.

b. (€21000 − € 20000)/€20000 = 0.05. c.

There are two parts to this return. One is the gain involved due to the appreciation of the euro; the euro appreciation is ($1.17 − 1.36)/$1.36 = 0.14. The other part of the return is the interest paid by the London bank on the deposit, 2%. (The size of the deposit is immaterial to the calculation of the rate of return.) In terms of euros, the realized return on the London deposit is thus 2.14% per year.

6. Note here that the ordering of the returns of the three assets is the same whether we calculate real or nominal returns. a.

The real return on the painting would be 25% − 10% = 15%. This return could also be calculated by first finding the portion of the $50,000 nominal increase in the house’s price due to inflation ($20,000), then finding the portion of the nominal increase due to real appreciation ($30,000), and finally finding the appropriate real rate of return ($30,000/$200,000 = 0.15).

b. Again, subtracting the inflation rate from the nominal return, we get 8% − 10% = −2%. c.

2% − 10% = −8%.

7. The current equilibrium exchange rate must equal its expected future level since, with equality of nominal interest rates, there can be no expected increase or decrease in the MXN/INR exchange rate in equilibrium. If the expected exchange rate remains at 3.40 INR per Peso and the INR interest rate rises to 10 % (5 % higher than Mexican interest rates), then interest parity is satisfied only if the current .

Krugman/Obstfeld/Melitz • International Economics: Theory & Policy, 12e, Global Edition

exchange rate changes such that there is an expected appreciation of the Peso equal to 5%%. This will occur when the exchange rate rises to 3.57 INR per Peso (a depreciation of the INR against the Peso). 8.

If market traders learn that the dollar interest rate will soon fall, they also revise upward their expectation of the dollar’s future depreciation in the foreign exchange market. Given the current exchange rate and interest rates, there is thus a rise in the expected dollar return on euro deposits from e e REU,1 to REU,2 . At the current exchange rate of E , the dollar return on a European asset exceeds the

dollar return on a U.S. asset. As investors shift their money into European assets, the dollar will depreciate against the euro. This will drive down the dollar return on European assets until interest rate parity is restored at the new exchange rate E2. 9. The analysis will be parallel to that in the text. As shown in the accompanying diagrams, a movement down the vertical axis in the new graph, however, is interpreted as a euro appreciation and dollar depreciation rather than the reverse. Also, the horizontal axis now measures the euro interest rate. The two diagrams below show the effects of an increase in European interest rates and an increase in the expected future exchange rate in terms of euros per dollar. In the first case, an increase in European interest rates raises the euro return on a European asset above the euro return on an American asset. This will cause the exchange rate to fall (euro appreciation, dollar depreciation) from E1 to E2.

In the second case, the expected appreciation of the dollar raises the euro return on an American asset from RUS,1 to RUS,2 . At the current exchange rate, American assets pay a higher euro return and the e

exchange rate must rise (euro depreciation, dollar appreciation) to restore interest rate parity. 10. The IMF country report on Korea https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2016/cr16278.pdf provides elements to evaluate the consequence of Chinese transformation on Korea of the Chinese economic transformation.

Chapter 14

Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Asset Approach

a. After decades of impressive economic progress, Korea’s growth has slowed, and the economy is facing a number of structural headwinds. A sharper-than-expected growth slowdown in China will have a large negative impact on Korea’s exports as China is Korea’s main trading partner, accounting for 25 % of its exports. With exports exceeding 50 % of GDP—one of the highest shares among advanced economies—Korea is thus heavily exposed to spillovers, particularly from China. China’s slowing growth, rebalancing toward domestic demand, and moving up the value chain will all affect Korea substantially. Second-round effects could come into play as a slowdown in China would affect the global economy. b. As the IMF report quote “rate flexibility, coupled with possible FX intervention” should be a policy response to such a situation. For example a depreciation of the Korean Won could partly compensate a sluggish export demand – all the more so that the current account of Korea is for now strongly positive. 11. The euro is less risky for you. When the rest of your wealth falls, the euro tends to appreciate, cushioning your losses by giving you a relatively high payoff in terms of dollars. Losses on your euro assets, on the other hand, tend to occur when they are least painful, that is, when the rest of your wealth is unexpectedly high. Holding the euro, therefore, reduces the variability of your total wealth. 12. The chapter states that most foreign exchange transactions between banks (which accounts for the vast majority of foreign exchange transactions) involve exchanges of foreign currencies for U.S. dollars, even when the ultimate transaction involves the sale of one nondollar currency for another nondollar currency. This central role of the dollar makes it a vehicle currency in international transactions. The reason the dollar serves as a vehicle currency is that it is the most liquid of currencies because it is easy to find people willing to trade foreign currencies for dollars. The greater liquidity of the dollar as compared to, say, the Mexican peso, means that people are more willing to hold the dollar than the peso, and thus, dollar deposits can offer a lower interest rate, for any expected rate of depreciation against a third currency, than peso deposits for the same rate of depreciation against that third currency. As the world capital market becomes increasingly integrated, the liquidity advantages of holding dollar deposits as opposed to euro deposits will probably diminish. The euro represents an economy as large as the United States, so it is possible that it will assume some of that vehicle role of the dollar, reducing the liquidity advantages to as far as zero. When it was first introduced in 1999, the euro had no history as a currency, though, so some investors may have been leery of holding it until it established a track record. As the euro has become more established, though, the liquidity advantage of the dollar should be fading (albeit slowly).

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13. The interest rate parity condition tells us that interest rates and exchange rates are directly linked. As interest rates become more volatile, so too will exchange rates. For example, suppose that the European Central Bank actively limits fluctuations in euro interest rates while the Federal Reserve does not intervene to keep dollar interest rates stable. Interest rate parity states that: RUS − REU = ( E$/e € − E$/ € )/E$/ €

If the left-hand side of this equation becomes more volatile, then so too must the right-hand side. Assuming that expectations remain unchanged, then this increase in volatility will be reflected in higher variablility of the exchange rate. 14. The interest rate parity condition tells us that the interest rates and the exchange rates are directly linked. If the consequence of the decision of the Central Bank is that interest rates become more volatile, so too will exchange rates. For example, suppose that the Central Bank does not intervene to keep its currency interest rates stable. Interest rate parity states that (with NC: national currency and FC: foreign currency): RNC – RFC = (EeNC/FC – ENC/FC) / ENC/FC If the left-hand side of this equation becomes more volatile, then so too must the right-hand side. Assuming that expectations remain unchanged, then this increase in volatility will be reflected in higher variability of the exchange rate. 15. The forward premium can be calculated as described in the Appendix. In this case, we find the forward premium on ZAR to be (23 − 20)/20 = 0.15. The interest rate difference between a Rand one-year deposit and a Naira one-year deposit must equal the forward premium when covered interest parity holds. 16. The value should have gone down as there is no more need to engage in intra-EU foreign currency trading. This represents the predicted transaction cost savings stemming from the euro. At the same time, the importance of the euro as an international currency may have generated more trading in euros as more investors (from central banks to individual investors) choose to hold their funds in euros or denominate transactions in euros. On net, though, we would expect the value of foreign exchange trading in euros to be less than the sum of the previous currencies. 17. If the dollar depreciated, all else being equal, we would expect outsourcing to diminish. If, as the problem states, much of the outsourcing is an attempt to move production to locations that are relatively cheaper, then the United States becomes relatively cheap when the dollar depreciates. Although it may not be as cheap a destination as some other locations, at the margin, labor costs in the United States will have become relatively cheaper, making some firms choose to retain production at home. For

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Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Asset Approach

101

example, we could say that the labor costs of producing a computer in Malaysia is $220 and the extra transport cost is $50, but the U.S. costs were $300; then we would expect the firm to outsource. On the other hand, if the dollar depreciated 20% against the Malaysian ringitt, the labor costs in Malaysia would now be $264 (that is, 20% higher in dollar terms, but unchanged in local currency). This, plus the transport costs, makes production in Malaysia more expensive than in the United States, making outsourcing a less attractive option. 18. a. The best carry trade, all things being equal, is obtained when the difference between the interest rate is the highest. For example, between euro (or Yen, or USA) and Russia, South Africa, Mexico or China. b. All these high interest rate economies are exposed to instability risks, which could lead to a currency depreciation, which could offset the expected gain on the carry trade. For example, the exchange rate between the euro and the South African Rand between February 2015 and February 2016 has depreciated by 38% (from 13 rand for one euro to 18 rand for one euro). As the pressure on China to reevaluate the RMB and because of the greatest economic weight of this country, the spread on the Chinese currency should be the less risky (in fact the exchange rate was 7.53 RMB for one euro in January 2015, and 7.36 in January 2017). c. The carry trade (before the impact of the exchange rate) between euro and the Peso is 5.70 and with the Ruble 14.95. As the exchange rate between the euro and the Ruble has appreciated between January 2015 and January 2017 of 8.2% (70 Ruble for 1 euro to 64 R/€) the carry trade will be 23.15– but the volatility between these two date was extreme as the Ruble depreciated of nearly 90% between March 2015 (53 R/€) and February 2016 (97R/€) and then the carry trade could be highly negative. As for the Mexican Peso, the exchange rate between January 2015 and January 2017 has depreciated by 21% (from 17.9 for one € in 2015 to 21.8 in 2017). So the carry trade will be a loss.

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19.

As per the question, a currency depreciation benefits exporters and hurts consumers by raising the cost of living. Exporters tend to have more influence with the government for two reasons. First, there are fewer exporters than there are consumers, so the gains from a currency depreciation are much more heavily concentrated than the losses. As a result, each individual exporter will put forth more effort in lobbying the government than each individual consumer. Second, exporters are much easier to organize and coordinate than are a disparate mass of consumers. There are effective enforcement mechanisms in place to ensure that all exporters contribute to get a government to depreciate the currency, thus reducing the risk of free riding. Consumers will have a much harder time coordinating their lobbying efforts because there is no effective way to ensure that every consumer contributes toward such an effort. The risk of free riding is much higher among consumers.

Chapter 15 Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates

■

Chapter Organization

Money Defined: A Brief Review. Money as a Medium of Exchange. Money as a Unit of Account. Money as a Store of Value. What Is Money? How the Money Supply Is Determined. The Demand for Money by Individuals. Expected Return. Risk. Liquidity. Aggregate Money Demand. The Equilibrium Interest Rate: The Interaction of Money Supply and Demand. Equilibrium in the Money Market. Interest Rates and the Money Supply. Output and the Interest Rate. The Money Supply and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run. Linking Money, the Interest Rate, and the Exchange Rate. U.S. Money Supply and the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate.

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Europe’s Money Supply and the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate. Money, the Price Level, and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run. Money and Money Prices. The Long-Run Effects of Money Supply Changes. Empirical Evidence on Money Supplies and Price Levels. Money and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run. Inflation and Exchange Rate Dynamics. Short-Run Price Rigidity versus Long-Run Price Flexibility. Box: Money Supply Growth and Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe. Permanent Money Supply Changes and the Exchange Rate. Exchange Rate Overshooting. Case Study: Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate in Emerging Countries.

Summary ■

Chapter Overview

This chapter combines the foreign-exchange market model of the previous chapter with an analysis of the demand for and supply of money to provide a more complete analysis of exchange rate determination in the short run. The chapter also introduces the concept of the long-run neutrality of money, which allows an examination of exchange rate dynamics. These elements are brought together at the end of the chapter in a model of exchange rate overshooting. The chapter begins by reviewing the roles played by money. Money supply is determined by the central bank; for a given price level, the central bank’s choice of a nominal money supply determines the real money supply. An aggregate demand function for real money balances is motivated and presented. Money-market equilibrium—the equality of real money demand and the supply of real money balances—determines the equilibrium interest rate. A familiar diagram portraying money-market equilibrium is combined with the interest rate parity diagram presented in the previous chapter to give a simple model of monetary influences on exchange rate determination. The domestic interest rate, determined in the domestic money market, affects the exchange rate through the interest parity mechanism. Thus, an increase in domestic money supply leads to a fall in the .

Chapter 15

Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates

105

domestic interest rate. The home currency depreciates until its expected future appreciation is large enough to equate expected returns on interest-bearing assets denominated in domestic currency and in foreign currency. A contraction in the money supply leads to an exchange rate appreciation through a similar argument. Throughout this part of the chapter, the expected future exchange rate is still regarded as fixed. The analysis is then extended to incorporate the dynamics of long-run adjustment to monetary changes. The long run is defined as the equilibrium that would be maintained after all wages and prices fully adjusted to their market-clearing levels. Thus, the long-run analysis is based on the long-run neutrality of money: All else being equal, a permanent increase in the money supply affects only the general price level—and not interest rates, relative prices, or real output—in the long run. Money prices, including, importantly, the money prices of foreign currencies, move in the long run in proportion to any change in the money supply’s level. Thus, an increase in the money supply, for example, ultimately results in a proportional exchange rate depreciation. The link between money supply growth, inflation, and exchange rates is highlighted with a case study on the recent hyperinflation in Zimbabwe. Rampant money supply growth led to prices in Zimbabwe doubling nearly every day at the peak of the hyperinflation and

only

ended

when

Zimbabwe legalized the use of foreign currencies for domestic transactions. However, the reintroduction of a Zimbabwean currency in 2016 has led to renewed high inflation in the country as the Zimbabwe government has returned to expanding the money supply to finance deficits. A similar dynamic is playing out in Venezuela, which is experiencing high rates of inflation in tandem with rapid growth in the money supply. The combination of these long-run effects with the short-run static model allows consideration of exchange rate dynamics. In particular, the long-run results are suggestive of how long-run exchange rate expectations change after permanent money-supply changes. One dynamic result that emerges from this model is exchange rate overshooting in response to a change in the money supply. For example, a permanent moneysupply expansion leads to expectations of a proportional long-run currency depreciation. Foreign-exchange market equilibrium requires an initial depreciation of the currency large enough to equate expected returns on foreign and domestic bonds. But because the domestic interest rate falls in the short run, the currency must actually depreciate beyond (and thus overshoot) its new expected long-run level in the short run to maintain interest parity. As domestic prices rise and M/P falls, the interest rate returns to its previous level and the exchange rate falls (appreciates) back to its long-run level, higher than the starting point, but not as high as the initial reaction. The chapter concludes with a useful case study that helps bridge the gap between the stylized world of the model and the real world of central bank policy making where the central bank sets the interest rate rather

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than money and news about inflation may change expectations about future money supply changes when the central bank has committed to a particular level of inflation.

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Answers to Textbook Problems

1. A reduction in the home money demand causes interest rates in the home country to fall from Rh,1 to Rh,2. With no change in expectations, there will be a depreciation of the home currency from E1 to E2 as investors shift their savings into higher-interest-paying foreign assets.

In the long run, increased spending on home products (through lower interest rates and a depreciated currency) will cause prices in the home country to rise. This will shift the real money supply inward to a point where home interest rates return to their original level Rh,1 and the exchange rate falls back to E1. 2. A fall in a country’s population would reduce money demand, all else being equal, because a smaller population would undertake fewer transactions and thus demand less money. This effect would probably be more pronounced if the fall in the population were due to a fall in the number of households rather than a fall in the average size of a household because a fall in the average size of households implies a population decline due to fewer children who have relatively small transactions demand for money compared to adults. The effect on the aggregate money demand function depends upon no change in income commensurate with the change in population—else, the change in income would serve as a proxy for the change in population with no effect on the aggregate money demand function.

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3. Equation 15-4 is Ms./P = L(R, Y). The velocity of money, V = Y/(M/P). Thus, when there is equilibrium in the money market such that money demand equals money supply, V = Y/L(R, Y). When R increases, L(R, Y) falls and thus velocity rises. When Y increases, L(R, Y) rises by a smaller amount (because the elasticity of aggregate money demand with respect to real output is less than one), and the fraction Y/L(R, Y) rises. Thus, velocity rises with either an increase in the interest rate or an increase in income. Because an increase in interest rates as well as an increase in income causes the exchange rate to appreciate, an increase in velocity is associated with an appreciation of the exchange rate. 4. An increase in domestic real GNP will cause domestic real money demand to rise. This will cause domestic real interest rates to rise from Rh,1 to Rh,2 (see graph below). With no change in expectations, there will be an appreciation of the home currency from E1 to E2 as investors channel their savings into domestic assets.

5. Just as money simplifies economic calculations within a country, use of a vehicle currency for international transactions reduces calculation costs. More importantly, the more currencies used in trade, the closer the trade becomes to barter because someone who receives payment in a currency she does not need must then sell it for a currency she needs. This process is much less costly when there is a ready market in which any nonvehicle currency can be traded against the vehicle currency, which then fulfills the role of a generally accepted medium of exchange. 6. Currency reforms are often instituted in conjunction with other policies that attempt to bring down the rate of inflation. There may be a psychological effect of introducing a new currency at the moment of an economic policy regime change, an effect that allows governments to begin with a “clean slate” and makes people reconsider their expectations concerning inflation. Experience shows, however, that such .

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psychological effects cannot make a stabilization plan succeed if it is not backed up by concrete policies to reduce monetary growth. 7.

a. As we would expect, the price level rises consistently with the increase in the Bolivian money supply. The long-run price level is defined as P = MS/L(R,Y), so an increase in the money supply should cause prices to rise. An increase in the money supply and the price level should in turn cause the Bolivian peso to depreciate against the dollar. With a few exceptions (March 1985, for example), this is also occurring. b. Between April 1984 and July 1985, the price level rose by 22,908%, while the exchange rate increased by 24,662%. Over this same period, the money supply increased by 17,434%. We should expect the price level and the exchange rate to move by the same proportion, as the value of the Bolivian peso is determined by its purchasing power (eroded by inflation). As the peso becomes less valuable, then its price relative to another currency (the dollar) should change by the same proportion. Interestingly, the price level and exchange rate change by a larger percentage than the money supply. This is also somewhat expected if we consider the equation for the long-run price level P = MS/L(R,Y). Inflation will cause real money demand to fall, which causes prices to rise even further than that caused by the increase in the money supply alone. c. The stabilization plan was effective at reducing the increase in the price level and arresting the depreciation of the Bolivian peso as supported by the price and exchange rate figures for September– October 1985. Interestingly, the money supply continued to grow (albeit at a reduced rate) during these two months. We can partially attribute the differential growth rates to expectations. If people believed the Bolivian government’s commitment to the stabilization plan, they would have revised their inflation and exchange rate expectations, causing the actual price and exchange rates to stop rising so quickly. 8.

The charts below give inflation rates since 1980 for New Zealand, Chile, Canada, and Israel: In every case (as well as for those countries not included in the chart above), inflation is significantly more stable after the adoption of inflation targeting.

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9. If an increase in the money supply induces an increase in real output in the short run, then the shortrun decrease in the real interest rate will not be as pronounced as it was without the increase in real output. In the diagram below, the money supply rises from Ms.,1 to Ms.,2. This causes real output to rise from Y1 to Y2 and shifts the real money demand curve out from L(R, Y1) to L(R, Y2). In the diagram below, the resulting shifts lead to a reduction in interest rates from Rh,1 to Rh,2, which is a smaller drop in interest rates than would have prevailed had real money demand not shifted. (Note that it is possible that interest rates could have actually increased if the increase in real money demand was proportionately larger than the increase in nominal money supply. In this case, we will get exchange rate undershooting, with the short-run exchange rate below its long-run level.) Turning to the exchange rate diagram, two events occur. First, the drop in interest rates shifts the return on home assets from Rh,1 to Rh,2. Second, there is a change in expectations as people anticipate that the home currency will depreciate when home prices rise in the future. This shifts the expected

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return on foreign assets from

R ef ,1

R ef ,2 .

As a result of these shifts, the home currency depreciates

from E1 to E2. However, the drop in the value of the home currency is not as severe as it would have been had output not increased (thus limiting the decrease in interest rates).

In the long run, prices in the home country will rise, shifting real money supply back to its original level and according to the text of the question, dropping output back to Y1. This will cause interest rates to rise and, with no change in the expected return on foreign assets, cause the exchange rate to settle in at some value between E1 and E2. The extent of exchange rate overshooting is smaller in this scenario than when changes in the money supply have no effect on output because the change in output limits how large of an impact monetary policy has on real interest rates. 10. As the interest rate falls, people prefer to hold more cash and fewer financial assets. If interest rates were to fall below zero, people would strictly prefer cash to financial assets as the zero return on cash would dominate any negative return. Thus, interest rates cannot fall below zero because no one would hold a financial asset with a negative rate of return when another asset at a zero rate of return (cash) exists. 11. One clear complication that a zero interest rate introduces is that the central bank is “out of ammunition.” It literally cannot reduce interest rates any further and thus may struggle to respond to additional shocks that hit the economy over time. The central bank is still not completely powerless; it can print more money and try to increase inflation (increasing inflation with a constant zero interest rate would mean a declining real interest rate) to stimulate the economy, but the standard toolkit is not operational. As further discussion in Chapter 17 will show, a zero interest rate may also be a symptom of a lack of responsiveness in the economy to low interest rates.

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If money adjusts automatically to changes in the price level, then any number of combinations of money and prices could satisfy the money supply/money demand equations. There would be no unique solution.

b. Yes, a rule such as this one would help anchor the price level and imply there is no longer an infinite number of money and price combinations that could satisfy money supply and money demand. c.

A one-time permanent unexpected fall in “u” would imply that R would have to fall until prices have a chance to rise and balance out the equation. As prices rise, R would return to its initial level. The story described is essentially identical to that in Figure 15-13. The interest rate would drop and then rise slowly over time, and the price level would start out static and then rise over time. The exchange rate should overshoot (assuming that expectations are tied to future prices in the same way they are described in the text).

13. Students should refer to - https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/weodata/index.aspx. The CFA Zone have had much lower inflation than the Sub-Saharan countries as a group (less than 2% against more than 8%) and especially against floats or intermediate regimes. Economic policy models suggest that pegged exchange rates should be associated with lower inflation because they instill monetary discipline (implying a lower rate of money growth) and engender confidence in the currency (implying lower inflation expectations, higher money demand, and therefore lower inflation for a given rate of money growth. (IMF Regional economic outlook. Sub-Saharan Africa, Oct 2016, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2016/afr/eng/sreo1016.htm).

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Chapter 16 Price Levels and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run

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Chapter Organization

The Law of One Price. Purchasing Power Parity. The Relationship between PPP and the Law of One Price. Absolute PPP and Relative PPP. A Long-Run Exchange Rate Model Based on PPP. The Fundamental Equation of the Monetary Approach. Ongoing Inflation, Interest Parity, and PPP. The Fisher Effect. Empirical Evidence on PPP and the Law of One Price. Explaining the Problems with PPP. Trade Barriers and Nontradables. Departures from Free Competition. Differences in Consumption Patterns and Price Level Measurement. Box: Measuring and Comparing Countries' Wealth Worldwide: the International Comparison Program (ICP). PPP in the Short Run and in the Long Run. Case Study: Why Price Levels Are Lower in Poorer Countries.

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Beyond Purchasing Power Parity: A General Model of Long-Run Exchange Rates. The Real Exchange Rate. Demand, Supply, and the Long-Run Real Exchange Rate. Box: Sticky Prices and the Law of One Price: Evidence from Scandinavian Duty-Free Shops Nominal and Real Exchange Rates in Long-Run Equilibrium. International Interest Rate Differences and the Real Exchange Rate. Real Interest Parity.

Summary APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 16: The Fisher Effect, the Interest Rate, and the Exchange Rate under the Flexible-Price Monetary Approach

Chapter 16

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Chapter Overview

The time frame of the analysis of exchange rate determination shifts to the long run in this chapter. An analysis of the determination of the long-run exchange rate is required for the completion of the short-run exchange rate model because, as demonstrated in the previous two chapters, the long-run expected exchange rate affects the current spot rate. Issues addressed here include both monetary and real-side determinants of the long-run real exchange rate. The development of the model of the long-run exchange rate touches on a number of issues, including the effect of ongoing inflation on the exchange rate, the Fisher effect, and the role of tradables and nontradables. Empirical issues, such as the breakdown of purchasing power parity in the 1970s and the correlation between price levels and per capita income, are addressed within this framework. The law of one price, which holds that the prices of goods are the same in all countries in the absence of transport costs or trade restrictions, presents an intuitively appealing introduction to long-run exchange rate determination. An extension of this law to sets of goods motivates the proposition of absolute purchasing power parity. Relative purchasing power parity, a less restrictive proposition, relates changes in exchange rates to changes in relative price levels and may be valid even when absolute PPP is not. Purchasing power parity provides a cornerstone of the monetary approach to the exchange rate, which serves as the first model of the long-run exchange rate developed in this chapter. This first model also demonstrates how ongoing inflation affects the long-run exchange rate. The monetary approach to the exchange rate uses PPP to model the exchange rate as the price level in the home country relative to the price level in the foreign country. The money market equilibrium relationship is used to substitute money supply divided by money demand for the price level. The resulting relationship models the long-run exchange rate as a function of relative money supplies, real interest rates, and relative output in the two countries: Eh/f = Ph/Pf = Mh/Mf × {L(Rf,Yf)/L(Rh,Yh)} One result from this model that students may find initially confusing concerns the relationship between the long-run exchange rate and the nominal interest rate. The model in this chapter provides an example of an increase in the interest rate associated with exchange rate depreciation. In contrast, the short-run analysis in the previous chapter provides an example of an increase in the domestic interest rate associated with an appreciation of the currency. These different relationships between the exchange rate and the interest rate reflect different causes for the rise in the interest rate as well as different assumptions concerning price rigidity. In the analysis of the previous chapter, the interest rate rises due to a contraction in the level of the

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nominal money supply. With fixed prices, this contraction of nominal balances is matched by a contraction in real balances. Excess money demand is resolved through a rise in interest rates, which is associated with an appreciation of the currency to satisfy interest parity. In this chapter, the discussion of the Fisher effect demonstrates that the interest rate will rise in response to an anticipated increase in expected inflation due to an anticipated increase in the rate of growth of the money supply. There is incipient excess money supply with this rise in the interest rate. With perfectly flexible prices, the money market clears through an erosion of real balances due to an increase in the price level. This price level increase implies, through PPP, a depreciation of the exchange rate. Thus, with perfectly flexible prices (and its corollary PPP), an increase in the interest rate due to an increase in expected inflation is associated with a depreciation of the currency. Empirical evidence presented in the chapter suggests that both absolute and relative PPP perform poorly for the period since 1971. Even the law of one price fails to hold across disaggregated commodity groups. The rejection of these theories is related to trade impediments (which help give rise to nontraded goods and services), to shifts in relative output prices, and to imperfectly competitive markets. Because PPP serves as a cornerstone for the monetary approach, its rejection suggests that a convincing explanation of the longrun behavior of exchange rates must go beyond the doctrine of purchasing power parity. The Fisher effect is discussed in more detail and accompanied by a diagrammatic exposition in an appendix to this chapter. A more general model of the long-run behavior of exchange rates in which real side effects are assigned a role concludes the chapter. The material in this section drops the assumption of a constant real exchange rate, an assumption that you may want to demonstrate to students is necessarily associated with the assumption of PPP. Motivating this more general approach is easily done by presenting students with a timeseries graph of the recent behavior of the real exchange rate of the dollar, which will demonstrate large swings in its value. The real exchange rate, qh/f, is the ratio of the foreign price index, expressed in domestic currency, to the domestic price index or, equivalently, Eh/f = qh/f × (Ph/Pf). The chapter includes an informal discussion of the manner in which the long-run real exchange rate, qh/f, is affected by permanent changes in the supply or demand for a country’s products.

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Answers to Textbook Problems

1. Relative PPP predicts that inflation differentials are matched by changes in the exchange rate. Under relative PPP, the franc/ruble exchange rate would fall by 95% with inflation rates of 100% in Russia and 5% in Switzerland. 2. A real currency appreciation may result from an increase in the demand for nontraded goods relative to tradables, which would cause an appreciation of the exchange rate because the increase in the demand .

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for nontradables raises their price, raising the domestic price level and causing the currency to appreciate. In this case, exporters are indeed hurt. Real currency appreciation may occur for different reasons, however, with different implications for exporters’ incomes. A shift in foreign demand in favor of domestic exports will both appreciate the domestic currency in real terms and benefit exporters. Similarly, productivity growth in exports is likely to benefit exporters while causing a real currency appreciation. If we consider a ceterus paribus increase in the real exchange rate, this is typically bad for exporters as their exports are now more expensive to foreigners, which may reduce foreign export demand. In general, though, we need to know why the real exchange rate changed to interpret the impact of the change. 3. a.

A tilt of spending toward nontraded products causes the real exchange rate to appreciate as the price of nontraded goods relative to traded goods rises (the real exchange rate can be expressed as the price of tradables to the price of nontradables).

b. A shift in foreign demand toward domestic exports causes an excess demand for the domestic country’s goods, which causes the relative price of these goods to rise; that is, it causes the real exchange rate of the domestic country to appreciate. 4.

PPP reference would give a weak indication to fix the exchange rate between the candidate currency and the euro for the reason exposed in chapter 16. Rather, the multiplicity of indicators and the test phase chosen by the European Union are more appropriate to find the equilibrium exchange rate. The convergence criteria must ensure that the candidate country will be able to adjust its economic situation as it will lose the possibility to play on its exchange rate, as it will belong to a monetary union.

5. The depreciation of the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the Yen since 2013 reflects the impact on the new policy through ‘monetary easing’; the money base has increased from 138 trillion yen in 2012 to 436 trillion in 2016. According to the IMF (Japan Article IV Report, 2016, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2016/cr16267.pdf) this has “reversed the undue appreciation of the yen”. It should be noted that this depreciation has been mostly “fueled by the further widening of interest rate differentials relative to the U.S.” which have been decided by the Central Bank. However, despite initial (modest) successes (the GDP growth has reached 1.4% in 2013 an inflation 2.7% in 2014) the structural blockages of the Japanese economy inherited from a long period of deflation have not been overcome yet. 6. A permanent shift in the real money demand function will alter the long-run equilibrium nominal exchange rate but not the long-run equilibrium real exchange rate. Because the real exchange rate does not change, we can use the monetary approach equation, E = (M/M*) × {L(R*, Y*)/L(R, Y)}. A

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permanent increase in money demand at any nominal interest rate leads to a proportional appreciation of the long-run nominal exchange rate. Intuitively, the level of prices for any level of nominal balances must be lower in the long run for money market equilibrium. The reverse holds for a permanent decrease in money demand. The real exchange rate, however, depends upon relative prices and productivity terms, which are not affected by general price-level changes. 7. The mechanism would work through expenditure effects with a permanent transfer from Poland to the Czech Republic appreciating the koruna (Czech currency) in real terms against the zloty (Polish currency) if (as is reasonable to assume) the Czechs spent a higher proportion of their income on Czech goods relative to Polish goods compared to how the Poles spent their income. 8. As discussed in the answer to Question 7, the koruna appreciates against the zloty in real terms with the transfer from Poland to the Czech Republic if the Czechs spend a higher proportion of their income on Czech goods relative to Polish goods compared to how the Poles spent their income. The real appreciation would lead to a nominal appreciation as well. 9. Because the tariff shifts demand away from foreign exports and toward domestic goods, there is a longrun real appreciation of the home currency. Absent changes in monetary conditions, there is a long-run nominal appreciation as well. 10. The balanced expansion in domestic spending will increase the amount of imports consumed in the country that has a tariff in place, but imports cannot rise in the country that has a quota in place. Thus, in the country with the quota, there would be an excess demand for imports if the real exchange rate appreciated by the same amount as in the country with tariffs. Therefore, the real exchange rate in the country with a quota must appreciate by less than in the country with the tariff. 11. A permanent increase in the expected rate of real depreciation of the euro against the RMB

leads to a permanent increase in the expected rate of depreciation of the nominal euro/RMB exchange rate, given the differential in expected inflation rates across China and Europe. This increase in the expected appreciation of the RMB causes the spot rate today to depreciate. 12. Suppose there is a temporary fall in the real exchange rate in an economy, that is, the exchange rate appreciates today and then will depreciate back to its original level in the future. The expected depreciation of the real exchange rate, by real interest parity, causes the real interest rate to rise. If there is no change in the expected inflation rate, then the nominal interest rate rises with the rise in the real exchange rate. This event may also cause the nominal exchange rate to appreciate if the effect of a current appreciation of the real exchange rate dominates the effect of the expected depreciation of the real exchange rate.

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13. Assuming that interest parity holds, International differences in expected real interest rates reflect expected changes in real exchange rates. If the expected real interest rate in Hong Kong is 5% and the expected real interest rate in Singapore is 2%, then there is an expectation that the real HKD/SGD exchange rate will depreciate by 3%. 14. The initial effect of a reduction in the money supply in a model with sticky prices is an increase in the nominal interest rate and an appreciation of the nominal exchange rate. The real interest rate, which equals the nominal interest rate minus expected inflation, rises by more than the nominal interest rate because the reduction in the money supply causes the nominal interest rate to rise and deflation occurs during the transition to the new equilibrium. The real exchange rate depreciates during the transition to the new equilibrium (where its value is the same as in the original state). This satisfies the real interest parity relationship, which states that the difference between the domestic and the foreign real interest rate equals the expected depreciation of the domestic real exchange rate—in this case, the initial effect is an increase in the real interest rate in the domestic economy coupled with an expected depreciation of the domestic real exchange rate. In any event, the real interest parity relationship must be satisfied because it is simply a restatement of the Fisher equation, which defines the real interest rate, combined with the interest parity relationship, which is a cornerstone of the sticky-price model of the determination of the exchange rate. 15. One answer to this question involves the comparison of a sticky-price with a flexible-price model. In a model with sticky prices, a reduction in the money supply causes the nominal interest rate to rise and, by the interest parity relationship, the nominal exchange rate to appreciate. The real interest rate, which equals the nominal interest rate minus expected inflation, increases both because of the increase in the nominal interest rate and because there is expected deflation. In a model with perfectly flexible prices, an increase in expected inflation causes the nominal interest rate to increase (while the real interest rate remains unchanged) and the currency to depreciate because excess money supply is resolved through an increase in the price level and thus, by PPP, a depreciation of the currency. An alternative approach is to consider a model with perfectly flexible prices. As discussed in the preceding paragraph, an increase in expected inflation causes the nominal interest rate to increase and the currency to depreciate, leaving the expected real interest rate unchanged. If there is an increase in the expected real interest rate, however, this implies an expected depreciation of the real exchange rate. If this expected depreciation is due to a current, temporary appreciation, then the nominal exchange rate may appreciate if the effect of the current appreciation (which rotates the exchange rate schedule downward) dominates the effect due to the expected depreciation (which rotates the exchange rate schedule upward).

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16. Normally, long-term interest rates are higher than short-term interest rates to compensate for their greater riskiness, so the yield curve slopes upward. Current long rates reflect both - current short rates and expected future short rates. When investors expect a significant decline in short rates, long rates will be below the current short rates. Historically, a low – and particularly a negative – term spread (an ‘inverted yield curve’) has often heralded a subsequent slowdown in economic activity or even a recession. In the 1990s, Duke University professor Campbell Harvey found that inverted yield curves have preceded the last five recessions in the United States. However, the BIS notes that the flattening of the euro area yield curve in 2006 has to be interpreted in the light of risk premia included in longterm bond yields, which seems to have reached extraordinarily low levels over the last two years. The financial crisis of 2007 will not corroborate this prevision. 17. As seen in the chapter, the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates is better verified in the long run (beyond one year), and when interest-rate differentials are sufficiently large. On the other hand, on the other hand, the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates in the developed countries is unstable. This short-term deviation may be due to the existence of unexpected shocks of a monetary origin. The presence of transaction costs and agents' uncertainty which prevent them from carrying out arbitrages arising from the deviation, may also explain the phenomenon (from “Do interest rates help to predict exchange rates?, Tresor Economics) 18. If markets are fairly segmented, then temporary moves in exchange rates may lead to wide deviations from PPP even for tradable goods. In the short run, firms may not be able to respond by opening up new trading relationships or distribution channels. On the other hand, if there are persistent deviations from PPP of tradable goods, we would expect firms to try to increase their presence in the high-price market. If they do this, it should reduce prices there and bring prices back toward PPP. 19. Recall the definition of the real exchange rate as qFGN/€ = (EFGN/€ × PEU)/PFGN (FGN= foreign countries). According to the problem, European export goods have a greater weight in the European HCPI than in the foreign CPI. Furthermore, European import goods have a smaller weight in the European HCPI. Thus, an increase in the European terms of trade (export prices rising relative to import prices) will cause PEU to rise relative to PFGN. Goods that are consumed by Europeans more than by foreigners are becoming more expensive, thus raising the general cost of living in the European countries more than abroad. As a result, the real exchange rate will fall, representing a real appreciation of the euro.

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20. As indicated by the graph below, there is a strong and positive relationship between GNI per capita in a country and the dollar price of a Big Mac:

Chapter 17 Output and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run ◼ Chapter Organization Determinants of Aggregate Demand in an Open Economy. Determinants of Consumption Demand. Determinants of the Current Account. How Real Exchange Rate Changes Affect the Current Account. How Disposable Income Changes Affect the Current Account. The Equation of Aggregate Demand. The Real Exchange Rate and Aggregate Demand. Real Income and Aggregate Demand. How Output Is Determined in the Short Run. Output Market Equilibrium in the Short Run: The DD Schedule. Output, the Exchange Rate, and Output Market Equilibrium. Deriving the DD Schedule. Factors that Shift the DD Schedule. Asset Market Equilibrium in the Short Run: The AA Schedule. Output, the Exchange Rate, and Asset Market Equilibrium. Deriving the AA Schedule. Factors that Shift the AA Schedule. Short-Run Equilibrium for an Open Economy: Putting the DD and AA Schedules Together. Temporary Changes in Monetary and Fiscal Policy. Monetary Policy. Fiscal Policy. Policies to Maintain Full Employment. Inflation Bias and Other Problems of Policy Formulation. Permanent Shifts in Monetary and Fiscal Policy. A Permanent Increase in the Money Supply. Adjustment to a Permanent Increase in the Money Supply. A Permanent Fiscal Expansion. .

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Macroeconomic Policies and the Current Account. Gradual Trade Flow Adjustment and Current Account Dynamics. The J-Curve. Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Inflation. Global Value Chains and Exchange Rate Effects on Export and Import Prices The Current Account, Wealth, and Exchange Rate Dynamics. Box: Understanding Pass-Through to Import and Export Prices. The Liquidity Trap. Case Study: How Big Is the Government Spending Multiplier? SUMMARY APPENDIX 1 TO CHAPTER 17: Intertemporal Trade and Consumption Demand APPENDIX 2 TO CHAPTER 17: The Marshall-Lerner Condition and Empirical Estimates of Trade Elasticities APPENDIX 3 TO CHAPTER 17: The IS-LM Model and the DD-AA Model

◼ Chapter Overview This chapter integrates the previous analysis of exchange rate determination with a model of short-run output determination in an open economy. The model presented is similar in spirit to the classic MundellFleming model, but the discussion goes beyond the standard presentation in its contrast of the effects of temporary versus permanent policies. The distinction between temporary and permanent policies allows for an analysis of dynamic paths of adjustment rather than just comparative statics. This dynamic analysis brings in the possibility of a J-curve response of the current account to currency depreciation. The chapter concludes with a discussion of exchange rate pass-through, that is, the response of import prices to exchange rate movements. The chapter begins with the development of an open-economy fixed-price model. An aggregate demand function is derived using a Keynesian cross diagram in which the real exchange rate serves as a shift parameter. A nominal currency depreciation increases output by stimulating exports and reducing imports, given foreign and domestic prices, fiscal policy, and investment levels. This yields a positively sloped output-market equilibrium (DD) schedule in exchange rate output space. A negatively sloped asset-market equilibrium (AA) schedule completes the model. The derivation of this schedule follows from the analysis of previous chapters. For students who have already taken intermediate macroeconomics, you may want to point out that the intuition behind the slope of the AA curve is identical to that of the LM curve, with the additional relationship of interest parity providing the link between the closed-economy LM curve and the open-economy AA curve. As with the LM curve, higher income increases money demand and raises the home-currency interest rate (given real balances). In an open economy, higher interest rates require currency

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appreciation to satisfy interest parity (for a given future expected exchange rate). The effects of temporary policies, as well as the short-run and long-run effects of permanent policies, can be studied in the context of the DD-AA model if we identify the expected future exchange rate with the long-run exchange rate examined in Chapters 15 (4) and 16 (5). In line with this interpretation, temporary policies are defined to be those that leave the expected exchange rate unchanged, while permanent policies are those that move the expected exchange rate to its new long-run level. As in the analysis in earlier chapters, in the long run, prices change to clear markets (if necessary). Although the assumptions concerning the expectational effects of temporary and permanent policies are unrealistic as an exact description of an economy, they are pedagogically useful because they allow students to grasp how differing market expectations about the duration of policies can alter their qualitative effects. Students may find the distinction between temporary and permanent, on the one hand, and between short run and long run on the other, a bit confusing at first. It is probably worthwhile to spend a few minutes discussing this topic. Both temporary and permanent increases in money supply expand output in the short run through exchange rate depreciation. The long-run analysis of a permanent monetary change once again shows how the wellknown Dornbusch overshooting result can occur. Temporary expansionary fiscal policy raises output in the short run and causes the exchange rate to appreciate. Permanent fiscal expansion, however, has no effect on output even in the short run. The reason for this is that, given the assumptions of the model, the currency appreciation in response to permanent fiscal expansion completely “crowds out” exports. This is a consequence of the effect of a permanent fiscal expansion on the expected long-run exchange rate, which shifts the asset-market equilibrium curve inward. This model can be used to explain the consequences of U.S. fiscal and monetary policies between 1979 and 1984. The model explains the recession of 1982 and the appreciation of the dollar as a result of tight monetary and loose fiscal policy. The chapter concludes with some discussion of real-world modifications of the basic model. Recent experience casts doubt on a tight, unvarying relationship between movements in the nominal exchange rate and shifts in competitiveness and thus between nominal exchange rate movements and movements in the trade balance as depicted in the DD-AA model. Exchange rate pass-through is less than complete and thus nominal exchange rate movements are not translated one-for-one into changes in the real exchange rate. Furthermore, the degree of exchange rate pass through will depend on the currency that exports are invoiced in as well as whether an exchange rate change was caused by a change in output demand (less pass-through) or a change in asset demand (more pass-through). Also, the current account may worsen immediately after currency depreciation. This J-curve effect occurs because of time lags in deliveries and because of low elasticities of demand in the short run as compared to the long run. This is expanded upon in Appendix 2, which discusses the Marshall-Lerner conditions relating import and export elasticities to how an exchange rate change affects the current account.

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The chapter contains a discussion of the way in which the analysis of the model would be affected by the inclusion of incomplete exchange rate pass-through and time-varying elasticities. There is also a discussion of how global value chains in which countries both import and export intermediate goods. These backward and forward linkages from inputs to outputs can dampen the impact of exchange rate changes on final goods prices. A discussion of how the current account balance can affect the exchange rate is also illuminating: A country running a persistent current account deficit will experience a loss in net foreign wealth, which in turn may depreciate the currency given home biases in consumption. This observation is matched with U.S. data to illustrate that fiscal expansions in the United States that initially lead to currency appreciations and current account deficits will, over time, lead to depreciations in the dollar. The chapter concludes with the efficacy of monetary policy in a liquidity trap. When nominal interest rates are at zero (as they effectively were in the United States in 2010), any attempt to stimulate the economy through monetary expansion will be ineffective given that interest rates cannot fall below zero. A modification of the DD-AA model shows that for a country in a liquidity trap, a section of the AA curve is perfectly elastic. In fact, monetary policy can only affect output by changing the expected exchange rate. This may explain the unconventional monetary policies recently taken by the Federal Reserve such as the purchase of long-term government bonds.

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Answers to Textbook Problems

1. A decline in investment demand decreases the level of aggregate demand for any level of the exchange rate. Thus, a decline in investment demand causes the DD curve to shift to the left. 2. A tariff is a tax on the consumption of imports. The demand for domestic goods, and thus the level of aggregate demand, will be higher for any level of the exchange rate. This is depicted in Figure 17(6)-1 (below) as a rightward shift in the output market schedule from DD to DD. If the tariff is temporary, this is the only effect, and output will rise even though the exchange rate appreciates as the economy moves from points 0 to 1. If the tariff is permanent, however, the long-run expected exchange rate appreciates, so the asset market schedule shifts to AA. The appreciation of the currency is sharper in this case. If output is initially at full employment, then there is no change in output due to a permanent tariff.

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Figure 17-1 3. As shown by the Economic Nobel Prize winner of 1989, Trygve Haavelmo, in an article (Econometrica, 1945) there could be a “Multiplier Effects of a Balanced Budget” because of the difference in the propensity to consume between the households and the government. This could be when the government increases the taxes of 100 units - the households consumption decrease only for a fraction of 100 but when the government spends 100, the consumption increases by 100; so there is a positive impact on output (all things being equal) of this balanced public expenditure. This theoretical analysis shows that the principle of ‘fiscal neutrality’ is not a simple equality and illustrates that taxes and expenses have different effects and must be analyzed separately when it comes to estimating the impact of a fiscal policy on the economy. 4. A permanent fall in private aggregate demand causes the DD curve to shift inward and to the left and, because the expected future exchange rate depreciates, the AA curve shifts outward and to the right. These two shifts result in no effect on output, however, for the same reason that a permanent fiscal expansion has no effect on output. The net effect is a depreciation in the nominal exchange rate and, because prices will not change, a corresponding real exchange rate depreciation. A macroeconomic policy response to this event would not be warranted.

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5. Figure 17-2 (below) can be used to show that any permanent fiscal expansion worsens the current account. In this diagram, the schedule XX represents combinations of the exchange rate and income for which the current account is in balance. Points above and to the left of XX represent current account surplus, and points below and to the right represent current account deficit. A permanent fiscal expansion shifts the DD curve to DD and, because of the effect on the long-run exchange rate, the AA curve shifts to AA. The equilibrium point moves from 0, where the current account is in balance, to 1, where there is a current account deficit. If, instead, there was a temporary fiscal expansion of the same size, the AA curve would not shift and the new equilibrium would be at point 2 where there is a current account deficit, although it is smaller than the current account deficit at point 1. Thus, a temporary increase in government spending causes the current account to decline by less than a permanent increase because there is no change in expectations with a temporary shock and thus the AA curve does not move.

Figure 17-2 6. A temporary tax cut shifts the DD curve to the right and, in the absence of monetization, has no effect on the AA curve. In Figure 17-3, this is depicted as a shift in the DD curve to DD, with the equilibrium moving from points 0 to 1. If the deficit is financed by future monetization, the resulting expected longrun nominal depreciation of the currency causes the AA curve to shift to the right to AA, which gives us the equilibrium point 2. The net effect on the exchange rate is ambiguous, but output certainly increases more than in the case of a pure fiscal shift.

Figure 17-3

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7. A currency depreciation accompanied by a deterioration in the current account balance could be caused by factors other than a J-curve. For example, a fall in foreign demand for domestic products worsens the current account and also lowers aggregate demand, depreciating the currency. In terms of Figure 17-4, DD and XX undergo equal vertical shifts, to DD and XX, respectively, resulting in a current account deficit as the equilibrium moves from points 0 to 1. To detect a J-curve, one might check whether the prices of imports in terms of domestic goods rise when the currency is depreciating, offsetting a decline in import volume and a rise in export volume.

Figure 17-4 8. The expansionary money supply announcement causes a depreciation in the expected long-run exchange rate and shifts the AA curve to the right. This leads to an immediate increase in output and a currency depreciation. The effects of the anticipated policy action thus precede the policy’s actual implementation. 9. The DD curve might be negatively sloped in the very short run if there is a J-curve, though the absolute value of its slope would probably exceed that of AA. This is depicted in Figure 17-5. The effects of a temporary fiscal expansion, depicted as a shift in the output market curve to DD, would not be altered because it would still expand output and appreciate the currency in this case (the equilibrium points move from 0 to 1).

Figure 17-5

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Monetary expansion, however, while depreciating the currency, would reduce output in the very short run. This is shown by a shift in the AA curve to AA and a movement in the equilibrium point from 0 to 2. Only after some time would the expansionary effect of monetary policy take hold (assuming the domestic price level did not react too quickly). 10. The derivation of the Marshall-Lerner condition uses the assumption of a balanced current account to substitute EX for (q  EX*). We cannot make this substitution when the current account is not initially zero. Instead, we define the variable z = (q  EX*)/EX. This variable is the ratio of imports to exports, denominated in common units. When there is a current account surplus, z will be less than 1, and when there is a current account deficit, z will exceed 1. It is possible to take total derivatives of each side of the equation CA = EX − q EX* and derive a general Marshall-Lerner condition as n + z n*  z, where n and n* are as defined in Appendix 2. The balanced current account (z = 1) Marshall-Lerner condition is a special case of this general condition. A depreciation is less likely to improve the current account the larger its initial deficit when n* is less than 1. Conversely, a depreciation is more likely to cause an improvement in the current account the larger its initial surplus, again for values of n* less than 1. 11. If imports constitute part of the CPI, then a fall in import prices due to an appreciation of the currency will cause the overall price level to decline. The fall in the price level raises the real money supply. As shown in Figure 17-6, the permanent fiscal expansion will shift the output market curve from DD to DD and is matched by an inward shift of the asset market equilibrium curve. If import prices are not in the CPI and the currency appreciation does not affect the price level, the asset market curve shifts to AA, and there is no effect on output, even in the short run. If, however, the overall price level falls due to the appreciation, the shift in the asset market curve is smaller, to AA, and the initial equilibrium point, point 1, has higher output than the original equilibrium at point 0. Over time, prices rise when output exceeds its long-run level, causing a shift in the asset market equilibrium curve from AA to AA, which returns output to its long-run level.

Figure 17-6

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12. An increase in the risk premium shifts the asset market curve out and to the right, all else being equal. A permanent increase in government spending shifts the asset market curve in and to the right because it causes the expected future exchange rate to appreciate. A permanent rise in government spending also causes the goods market curve to shift down and to the right because it raises aggregate demand. In the case where there is no risk premium, the new intersection of the DD and AA curves after a permanent increase in government spending is at the full-employment level of output because this is the only level consistent with no change in the long-run price level. In the case discussed in this question, however, the nominal interest rate rises with the increase in the risk premium. Therefore, output must also be higher than the original level of full-employment output; as compared to the case in the text, the AA curve does not shift by as much, so output rises. 13. Suppose output is initially at full employment. A permanent change in fiscal policy will cause both the AA and DD curves to shift such that there is no effect on output. Now consider the case where the economy is not initially at full employment. A permanent change in fiscal policy shifts the AA curve because of its effect on the long-run exchange rate and shifts the DD curve because of its effect on expenditures. There is no reason, however, for output to remain constant in this case because its initial value is not equal to its long-run level, and thus an argument like the one in the text that shows the neutrality of permanent fiscal policy on output does not carry through. In fact, we might expect that an economy that begins in a recession (below Y f ) would be stimulated back toward Y f by a positive permanent fiscal shock. If Y does rise permanently, we would expect a permanent drop in the price level (because M is constant). This fall in P in the long run would move AA and DD both out. We could also consider the fact that in the case where we begin at full employment and there is no impact on Y, AA was shifting back due to the real appreciation necessitated by the increase in demand for home products (as a result of the increase in G). If there is a permanent increase in Y, there has also been a relative supply increase that can offset the relative demand increase and weaken the need for a real appreciation. Because of this, AA would shift back by less. We do not know the exact effect without knowing how far the lines originally move (the size of the shock), but we do know that without the restriction that Y is unchanged in the long run, the argument in the text collapses, and we can have both short-run and long-run effects on Y. 14. We are given that the central bank in the economy can keep both interest rates and exchange rates fixed. Thus, we need to only consider the goods side of the economy. The goods market equilibrium is Y = (1 − s)Y + I + G + aE − mY. Collecting terms and solving for Y yields: Y = (I + G + aE)/(s + m)

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Thus, a 1 unit increase in government spending will cause output to increase by 1/(s + m). Recall that s is the marginal propensity to save and m is the marginal propensity to import. As both of these marginal propensities increase, the multiplier effect of government spending will decrease. This makes intuitive sense as the impact of government spending will be diluted if some of that spending is saved (s) and if some of that spending leaves the country through imports (m). 15. The text shows output cannot rise following a permanent fiscal expansion if output is initially at its long-run level. Using a similar argument, we can show that output cannot fall from its initial long-run level following a permanent fiscal expansion. A permanent fiscal expansion cannot have an effect on the long-run price level because there is no effect on the money supply or the long-run values of the domestic interest rate and output. When output is initially at its long-run level, R equals R*, Y equals Y f , and real balances are unchanged in the short run. If output did fall, there would be excess money supply and the domestic interest rate would have to fall, but this would imply an expected appreciation of the currency because the interest differential (R − R*) would then be negative. This, however, could only occur if the currency appreciates in real terms as output rises and the economy returns to longrun equilibrium. This appreciation, however, would cause further unemployment, and output would not rise and return back to Y f . As with the example in the text, this contradiction is only resolved if output remains at Y f . 16. It is difficult to see how government spending can rise permanently without increasing taxes or how taxes can be cut permanently without cutting spending. Thus, a truly permanent fiscal expansion is difficult to envision. The one possible scenario is if the government realized it was on a path to permanent surpluses and it could cut taxes without risking long-run imbalances. Because rational agents are aware the government has a long-run budget constraint, they may assume that any fiscal policy is actually temporary. This would mean that a “permanent” shock would look just like a temporary one. This is quite similar to the discussion of problem 14 in this chapter. 17. High inflation economies should have higher pass-through as price setters are used to making adjustments faster (menu costs fall over time as people learn how to change prices faster). Thus, a depreciation in a high-inflation economy may see a rapid response of changing prices, but firms in a low-inflation environment may be loathe to increase prices for fear of losing business, given that their customers are not accustomed to price changes. In addition, a depreciation by a high-inflation economy may be more likely to have been caused by an increase in the money supply, which would lead to price increases on its own anyway, so the pass-through would appear higher. 18. A “Make in India” provision results in a rightward shift in the DD curve because there will be a greater demand for Indian output than if some imported goods could have been purchased.

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If this policy is extended, it will increase the internal demand and hence in the short run (and all things equal) the prices of goods and services will increase. This will drive the interest rate upward and the exchange rate to fall (a downward shift of AA curve). Therefore, in the long run this provision will not have any additional impact on the output growth. In fact, the measures on public procurement look to create structural effects rather than global output effect. 19. We are given that the economy starts out at full employment with R = R*. As such, we know that . An increase in government spending will not affect the money supply, the long run value of the domestic interest rate, or full employment output. Thus, it will have no impact on the long run price level. We can therefore conclude that an increase in government spending cannot affect output. If it did, then because the real money supply remains unchanged, any increase in output would push the domestic interest rate above the foreign interest rate to keep the money market in equilibrium:

. However, because of interest rate parity, if the

domestic interest rate R were to increase, then it must be the case that the domestic currency is expected to depreciate. However, this cannot be. When output rises above full employment, there is excess demand. If the currency were to depreciate, then this would only exacerbate this excess demand. As such, it is impossible for an increase in government spending to increase output above full employment. Rather, the increase in government spending will cause the expected exchange rate to fall (expected appreciation of the domestic currency), which in turn must cause the current exchange rate to fall since R=R*. Looking at the expression for output we derived as

, any increase in G will

be offset by a proportionate decrease in aE, leaving output unchanged. The larger the parameter a, the smaller the appreciation of the domestic currency to an increase in government spending.

20. Start with the money market condition parity as

and plug in the approximation for interest rate

. With some manipulation, we can solve for the current exchange rate . Plug this into the goods market equilibrium and then solving

Chapter 17

for Y will yield

multiplier is thus given by exception of the term

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. The government spending

, which is similar to what we found in problem 14, with the . Looking at this expression, we see that the government spending

multiplier is decreasing in a and b, but increasing in d. This makes intuitive sense. An increase in government spending that causes the exchange rate to fall (currency depreciation) will have a smaller effect on output when output is sensitive to exchange rate changes (larger value for a). The parameter b represents the responsiveness of money demand to changes in output. If more output causes the demand for money to rise faster (higher value for b), then any increase in output resulting from government spending will be dampened by the greater demand for money pushing up interest rates. The parameter d measures the responsiveness of money demand to real interest rates. As interest rates rise, the demand for money will fall at a faster rate with a larger value for d, allowing output to expand more in response to government spending.

Chapter 18 Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention ■

Chapter Organization

Why Study Fixed Exchange Rates? Central Bank Intervention and the Money Supply. The Central Bank Balance Sheet and the Money Supply. Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Money Supply. Sterilization. The Balance of Payments and the Money Supply. How the Central Bank Fixes the Exchange Rate. Foreign Exchange Market Equilibrium under a Fixed Exchange Rate. Money Market Equilibrium under a Fixed Exchange Rate. A Diagrammatic Analysis. Stabilization Policies with a Fixed Exchange Rate. Monetary Policy. Fiscal Policy. Changes in the Exchange Rate. Adjustment to Fiscal Policy and Exchange Rate Changes. Balance of Payments Crises and Capital Flight. Managed Floating and Sterilized Intervention. Perfect Asset Substitutability and the Ineffectiveness of Sterilized Intervention. Case Study: Can Markets Attack a Strong Currency? The Case of Switzerland, 2011-2015. Foreign Exchange Market Equilibrium under Imperfect Asset Substitutability. The Effects of Sterilized Intervention with Imperfect Asset Substitutability. Evidence on the Effects of Sterilized Intervention.

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Reserve Currencies in the World Monetary System. The Mechanics of a Reserve Currency Standard. The Asymmetric Position of the Reserve Center. The Gold Standard. The Mechanics of a Gold Standard. Symmetric Monetary Adjustment under a Gold Standard. Benefits and Drawbacks of the Gold Standard. The Bimetallic Standard. The Gold Exchange Standard. Case Study: The Demand for International Reserves.

Summary APPENDIX 1 TO CHAPTER 18: Equilibrium in the Foreign-Exchange Market with Imperfect Asset Substitutability. Demand. Supply. Equilibrium. APPENDIX 2 TO CHAPTER 18: The Timing of Balance of Payments Crises. APPENDIX 3 TO CHAPTER 18: The Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments.

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Chapter Overview

Open-economy macroeconomic analysis under fixed exchange rates is dual to the analysis of flexible exchange rates. Under fixed exchange rates, attention is focused on the effects of policies on the balance of payments (and the domestic money supply), taking the exchange rate as given. Conversely, under flexible exchange rates with no official foreign-exchange intervention, the balance of payments equals zero, the money supply is a policy variable, and analysis focuses on exchange rate determination. In the intermediate case of managed floating, both the money supply and the exchange rate become, to an extent that is determined by central bank policies, endogenous. This chapter analyzes various types of monetary policy regimes under which the degree of exchange-rate flexibility is limited. The reasons for devoting a chapter to this topic, more than 30 years after the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system, include the prevalence of managed floating among industrialized countries, the common use of fixed exchange rate regimes among developing countries, the existence of regional currency arrangements such as the Exchange Rate Mechanism through which some European nations peg to the euro, the recurrent calls for a new international monetary regime based upon more aggressive .

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exchange-rate management, and the irrevocably fixed rates among countries that use the euro (a topic addressed in depth in Chapter 20). The chapter begins with an analysis of a stylized central bank balance sheet to show the link between the balance of payments, official foreign-exchange intervention, and the domestic money supply. Also described is sterilized intervention in foreign exchange, which changes the composition of interest-bearing assets held by the public but leaves the money supply unchanged. This analysis is then combined with the exchange rate determination analysis of Chapter 15 to demonstrate the manner in which central banks alter the money supply to peg the nominal exchange rate. The endogeneity of the money supply under fixed exchange rates emerges as a key lesson of this discussion. The tools developed in Chapter 17 are employed to demonstrate the impotence of monetary policy and the effectiveness of fiscal policy under a fixed exchange rate regime. The short-run and long-run effects of devaluation and revaluation are examined. The setup already developed suggests a natural description of balance of payments crises as episodes in which the public comes to expect a future currency devaluation. Such an expectation causes private capital flight and, as its counterpart, sharp official reserve losses. Different explanations of currency crises are explored, both those that argue that crises result from inconsistent policies and those that maintain crises are not necessarily inevitable but instead result from selffulfilling expectations. (See Appendix 2 to this chapter for a more detailed analysis.) Equipped with an understanding of the polar cases of fixed and floating rates, the student is in a position to appreciate the more realistic intermediate case of managed floating. The discussion of managed floating focuses on the role of sterilized foreign-exchange intervention and the theory of imperfect asset substitutability. The inclusion of a risk premium in the model enriches the analysis by allowing governments some scope to run independent exchange rate and monetary policies in the short run. The chapter reviews the results of attempts to demonstrate empirically the effectiveness of sterilized foreign-exchange operations that, however, are generally negative. Also discussed is the role of central bank intervention as a “signal” of future policy actions and the credibility problems entailed by such a strategy. The case study at the end of the chapter considers how the need for reserves in a crisis—and the potential difficulty of acquiring them during one—leads to a strong incentive to hold reserves in a precautionary manner if they want to cushion a balance of payments crisis. At this point, the discussion abandons the small country framework in favor of a systemic perspective to discuss the properties of two different fixed exchange rate systems: the reserve-currency systems and the gold standards. A key distinction between these systems is the asymmetry between the reserve center and the rest of the world compared to the symmetric adjustment among all countries under the gold standard. It is shown that this asymmetry gives the reserve center exclusive control over world monetary conditions (at

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least when interest parity links countries’ money markets). The chapter ends with a discussion of the pros and cons of the gold standard and the gold-exchange standard. Appendix 1 presents a more detailed model of exchange rate determination with imperfect asset substitutability. Appendix 2 provides an analysis of the timing of balance of payments crises. Appendix 3 describes the monetary approach to the balance of payments and its usefulness as a tool of policy analysis, and another considers liquidity traps.

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Answers to Textbook Problems

1. An expansion of the central bank’s domestic assets leads to an equal fall in its foreign assets, with no change in the bank’s liabilities (or the money supply). The effect on the balance-of-payments accounts is most easily understood by recalling how the fall in foreign reserves comes about. After the central bank buys domestic assets with money, there is initially an excess supply of money. The central bank must intervene in the foreign exchange market to hold the exchange rate fixed in the face of this excess supply: The bank sells foreign assets and buys money until the excess supply of money has been eliminated. Because private residents acquire the reserves the central bank loses, there is a noncentral bank capital outflow (a financial-account debit) equal to the increase in foreign assets held by the private sector. The offsetting credit is the reduction in central bank holdings of foreign assets, an official financial inflow. 2. An increase in government spending raises income and also money demand. The central bank prevents the initial excess money demand from appreciating the domestic currency by purchasing foreign assets from the domestic public. Central bank foreign assets rise, as do the central bank’s liabilities and, with them, the money supply. The central bank’s additional reserve holdings show up as an official capital outflow, a capital-account debit. Offsetting this debit is the capital inflow (a credit) associated with the public’s equal reduction in its own foreign assets. 3.

A one-time unexpected devaluation initially increases output; the output increase, in turn, raises money demand. The central bank must accommodate the higher money demand by buying foreign assets with domestic currency, a step that raises the central bank’s liabilities (and the home money supply) at the same time as it increases the bank’s foreign assets. The increase in official foreign reserves is an official capital outflow; it is matched in the balance of payments accounts by the equal capital outflow associated with the public’s own reduction in net foreign asset holdings. (The public must exchange foreign assets for the money it buys from the central bank, either by selling foreign assets or by borrowing foreign currency abroad. Either course of action is a capital inflow.)

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A more subtle issue is the following: When the price of foreign currency is raised, the value of the initial stock of foreign reserves rises when measured in terms of domestic currency. This capital gain in itself raises central bank foreign assets (which were measured in domestic currency units in our analysis)—so where is the corresponding increase in liabilities? Does the central bank inject more currency or bank system reserves into the economy to balance its balance sheet? The answer is that central banks generally create fictional accounting liabilities to offset the effect of exchange-rate fluctuations on the home-currency value of international reserves. These capital gains and losses do not automatically lead to changes in the monetary base. 4.

As shown in Figure 18-1, a devaluation causes the AA curve to shift to A′A′, which reflects an expansion in both output and the money supply in the economy. Figure 18-1 also contains an XX curve along which the current account is in balance. The initial equilibrium, at point 0, was on the XX curve, reflecting the fact that the current account was in balance there. After the devaluation, the new equilibrium point is above and to the left of the XX curve, in the region where the current account is in surplus. With fixed prices, a devaluation improves an economy’s competitiveness, increasing its exports, decreasing its imports, and raising the level of output.

Figure 18-1 5. Exchange rate stability may be preferred to monetary policy autonomy for several reasons. First, a country with a history of high inflation may need to commit to a fixed exchange rate regime to get inflation under control. This is most often seen in countries without independent central banks that use monetary policy as a means of supporting expansionary fiscal policy. Second, a reduction in currency risk can remove a significant barrier to international trade and investment. Finally, policy makers may choose to sacrifice autonomy to enter into cooperative agreements with other countries to reduce the risk of beggar-thy-neighbor policies. All of these benefits must be weighed against the cost of losing monetary autonomy. If a nation fixes its exchange rate to a country with which it has a highly coordinated business cycle, this may not be a large cost. If however, the country is hit by frequent

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idiosyncratic shocks, the loss of monetary policy as a tool to deal with these shocks may exceed any gain from exchange rate stability. 6. By raising output, fiscal expansion raises imports and thus worsens the current account balance. The immediate fall in the current account is smaller than under floating exchange rates, however, because the currency does not appreciate and crowd out net exports. 7. The reason that the effects of temporary and permanent fiscal expansions differ under floating exchange rates is that a temporary policy has no effect on the expected exchange rate while a permanent policy does. The AA curve shifts with a change in the expected exchange rate. In terms of the diagram, a permanent fiscal expansion causes the AA curve to shift down and to the left which, combined with the outward shift in the DD curve, results in no change in output. With fixed exchange rates, however, there is no change in the expected exchange rate with either policy because the exchange rate is, by definition, fixed. In response to both temporary and permanent fiscal expansions, the central bank must expand the money supply (shift AA out) to prevent the currency from appreciating (due to the shift out in the DD curve). Thus, Y goes up and E does not change after a permanent or temporary fiscal expansion when exchange rates are fixed. 8. By expanding output, a devaluation automatically raises private saving because part of any increase in output is saved. Government tax receipts rise with output, so the budget deficit is likely to decline, implying an increase in public saving. We have assumed investment to be constant in the main text. If investment instead depends negatively on the real interest rate (as in the IS-LM model), investment rises because devaluation raises inflationary expectations and thus lowers the real interest rate. (The nominal interest rate remains unchanged at the world level.) The interest-sensitive components of consumption spending also rise, and if these interest rate effects are strong enough, a current-account deficit could result. 9. An import tariff raises the price of imports to domestic consumers and shifts consumption from imports to domestically produced goods. This causes an outward shift in the DD curve, increasing output and appreciating the currency. Because the central bank cannot allow exchange rates to change, it must increase the money supply, an action depicted in the diagram as an outward shift in the AA schedule. Corresponding to this monetary expansion is a balance of payments surplus and an equal increase in official foreign reserves.

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The fall in imports for one country implies a fall in exports for another country, and a corresponding inward shift of that country’s DD curve necessitating a monetary contraction by the central bank to preserve its fixed exchange rate. If all countries impose import tariffs, then no country succeeds in turning world demand in its favor or in gaining reserves through an improvement in its balance of payments. Trade volumes shrink, however, and all countries lose some of the gains from trade. 10. If the market expects the devaluation to “stick,” the home nominal interest rate falls to the world level afterward, money demand rises, and the central bank buys foreign assets with domestic money to prevent excess money demand from appreciating the currency. The central bank thus gains official reserves, according to our model. Even if another devaluation were to occur in the near future, reserves might be gained if the first devaluation lowered the depreciation expected for the future and, with it, the home nominal interest rate. An inadequate initial devaluation could, however, increase the devaluation expected for the future, with opposite effects on the balance of payments. 11. If these Central Banks hold euro notes instead of government bonds, the adjustment process will be symmetric. Any purchase of euros by these banks leads to a fall in the euro supply as the euro notes go out of circulation and into the vaults of these banks. The balance of payments of these countries will register a surplus, and thus, it will increase the Central Bank money supply (if there is no sterilization) and reduce the money supply in the Eurozone at the same time. 12. A central bank that is maintaining a fixed exchange rate will require an adequate buffer stock of foreign assets on hand during periods of persistent balance of payments deficits. If a central bank depletes its stock of foreign reserves, it is no longer able to keep its exchange rate from depreciating in response to pressures arising from a balance of payments deficit. Simply put, a central bank can choose either the exchange rate and allow its reserve holdings to change or the amount of foreign reserves it holds and allow the exchange rate to float. If it loses the ability to control the amount of reserves because the

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private demand for them exceeds its supply, it can no longer control the exchange rate. Thus, a central bank maintaining a fixed exchange rate is not indifferent about using domestic or foreign assets to implement monetary policy. 13. There are many studies on the sterilization policy of PBC (see for example: Chinese Characteristic Sterilization:

the

Cost

Sharing

Mechanism

and

Financial

Repression+

Ming

Zhang,

http://www.cf40.org.cn/uploads/111116/2012-01-09zhangming.pdf). Without going into all the details, we can emphasize the following points: – The RRR is rather a ‘structural measure’ contrary to the Bank Bills selling which is a short term instrument (The Central Bank could not change the RRR too often). – The cost of the measure: the Central Bank may fix the remuneration of the RRR deposits, as for the Bills, the rate depends more on the market conditions. – The impact on the interest rate: to sell more Bills the Central Bank has to accept to rise their yields; the RRR affect the running cost of banks and thus the lending rate. – The effect on foreign exchange risk premium: selling Bank Bills increases the stock of RMB assets held by the private sector and thus the risk premium on these assets; the RRR has no effect in this regard. 14. With imperfect asset substitutability, a central bank can change the domestic interest rate without affecting the exchange rate. For example, if the central bank wants to lower the domestic interest rate, it can purchase domestic assets and increase the money supply. In order to sterilize this intervention, the central bank would have to also sell foreign assets it holds in reserve. In the diagram below, the increase in the money supply from M1 to M2 causes the home interest rate to fall from Rh,1 to Rh,2. However, the purchase of domestic assets causes the risk premium that domestic assets have to pay to fall from ρ(B − A1) to ρ(B − A2) as the stock of domestic assets held by the central bank rises from A1 to A2. This decrease in the expected domestic currency return on foreign assets offsets the decrease in domestic interest rates and leaves the exchange rate unchanged at E1.

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15. Assets

Liabilities

FA: 900

Deposits held by banks: 400

DA: 1500

Currency: 2000

The central bank’s foreign assets still drop, and consequently, liabilities must still drop, also. In this case though, currency has not changed, but after the check clears, the issuing bank has $100 less held as a deposit at the central bank. 16. Yes, there is some room within a target zone for domestic interest rates to move independently of the foreign rate. For a one-year rate, we might see that when R* rises 1%, the home currency depreciates 1%, setting an expected appreciation of the home currency back to the middle of the band, thus offsetting the 1% lower interest rate. On a shorter maturity, one could—in theory—expect a change in the exchange rate of up to 2% (top to bottom of the band) in three months. This allows three-month rates to be 2% apart, meaning annualized rates could be more than 8% apart. The shorter the maturity, the difference becomes essentially unbounded. But, this would require that the fixed exchange rate remains credible. On a 10-year bond, there can be only a 0.2% difference in rates as expected appreciation could be a maximum of 0.2% a year for the 10 years. 17. In a three-country world, a central bank fixes one exchange rate but lets the others float. It is still constrained in its ability to use monetary policy. It must manipulate the money supply to keep the

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interest rate at the level that maintains interest parity. It has no autonomy. At the same time, it cannot keep more than one exchange rate fixed. 18. Consider an example where France sells domestic assets (DA) for gold. If other central banks want to hold onto their monetary gold, they will raise interest rates (by selling domestic assets to reduce the money supply) to keep gold from leaving their country. The consequence may be that all central banks reduce their DA holdings and still hold the same amount of gold. Put differently, if France tries to sell domestic assets for gold and all other central banks do the same thing, the net effect is that there is still the same amount of gold on the asset side of all central banks balance sheets combined, but the domestic assets have gone down. Thus, the total assets have declined, and there has been a monetary contraction. In contrast, if France buys U.S. dollar assets to hold as reserves in a reserves currency system, it can buy the dollars on the open market in exchange for domestic assets. If investors want to hold dollars and the price of dollars begins to rise, the Fed can easily increase the supply of dollars by purchasing foreign assets in exchange for dollars. Thus, both have increased their foreign reserves, and there was no need for the assets side of the balance sheet to decline. 19. When a country devalues against the reserve currency, the value of its reserves in foreign currency is unchanged, but the local currency value is now different. A devaluation, where the foreign currency can now buy more local currency, leads to an increase in the value of reserves measured in local currency. If a country revalues, this will lead to local currency losses. These potential valuation gains and losses will affect the costs of reserves. A country receiving a lower interest rate on U.S. Treasury bills than it pays on its own debt is experiencing a cost of holding reserves, but if uncovered interest parity holds, this interest rate gap loss should be exactly offset by exchange rate changes and valuation gains as the local currency is expected to depreciate versus the dollar (because local R is > RU.S.). On the other hand, countries with large stocks of dollar reserves expose themselves to losses if the dollar depreciates rapidly. As long as U.S. interest rates are greater than local rates (which if the dollar is expected to depreciate, they should be), these losses will be offset by interest rate gains. On the other hand, if there are unexpected changes in the exchange rate, then we will see the valuation gains or losses materialize without any offsetting interest rate payments. In some sense, one cost of holding large stocks of reserves is exposure to these unexpected changes. 20. An economy caught in a liquidity trap has an AA curve with a flat section at output levels far below full-employment output Yf. When the interest rate is equal to zero, then holding the expected exchange rate fixed, interest rate parity determines the exchange rate as Eh/f = Ee/(1 − Rf). Thus, any attempt to depreciate the currency through an expansion in the money supply will leave the exchange rate unchanged because interest rates cannot be negative. A temporary increase in the money supply would

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simply shift the AA curve to the right, expanding the flat section of the AA curve and leaving both the exchange rate and output unchanged. Thus, a country caught in a liquidity trap finds it difficult to increase output through monetary policy. They could raise the interest rate by cutting the money supply, but this would actually make the recession (Y1 < Yf) worse! If, however, the central bank committed to a permanent increase in the money supply and permanent devaluation of the exchange rate, they could conceivably stimulate the economy through monetary policy. A permanent devaluation, if credible, will change the expected exchange rate. In the diagram below, the expected exchange rate rises from E1 to E2 . This shifts the AA curve up and to the right e

(because the permanent devaluation is executed by increasing the money supply). The change in the expected exchange rate causes the currency to devalue today, leading to an increase in spending on domestic output. All of this is contingent on the central bank credibly committing to a devaluation. If the central bank is unable to convince people that it will permanently devalue (and not just change course later on), the expected exchange rate never changes, and output is unaffected.

21. As Switzerland is in a liquidity trap, the AA and DD curve are intersecting along the flat portion of the AA curve. As a result, any increase in the Swiss money supply due to the SNB buying up foreign currency will simply lengthen the flat portion of the AA curve, leaving Swiss output unchanged. Basically, at an interest rate of zero, people are content to hold the extra money created by the SNB, leaving inflation unchanged. 22. The interest rate parity condition states that RSWI = REU + %ΔESfr/€. When RSWI = 0, this means that the euro rate of interest must be equal to the expected appreciation of the Swiss franc (depreciation of the euro) in order for interest rate parity to hold. If the Swiss franc is expected to appreciate by more than REU, then interest rate parity no longer holds, and Swiss bonds (or even currency!) represent a better

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investment than euro bonds. Investors will shift their money into Swiss francs, causing the franc to appreciate today. This will continue until the expected appreciation of the Swiss franc is again equal to the euro interest rate.

Chapter 19 International Monetary Systems: A Historical Overview ■

Chapter Organization

Macroeconomic Policy Goals in an Open Economy. Internal Balance: Full Employment and Price Level Stability. External Balance: The Optimal Level of the Current Account. Box: Can a Country Borrow Forever? The Case of New Zealand. Classifying Monetary Systems: The Open-Economy Monetary Trilemma. International Macroeconomic Policy under the Gold Standard, 1870–1914. Origins of the Gold Standard. External Balance under the Gold Standard. The Price-Specie-Flow Mechanism. The Gold Standard “Rules of the Game”: Myth and Reality. Internal Balance under the Gold Standard. Case Study: The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Regimes: Conflict over America’s Monetary Standard during the 1890s. The Interwar Years, 1918–1939. The Fleeting Return to Gold. International Economic Disintegration. Case Study: The International Gold Standard and the Great Depression. The Bretton Woods System and the International Monetary Fund. Goals and Structure of the IMF. Convertibility and the Expansion of Private Capital Flows. Speculative Capital Flows and Crises. Analyzing Policy Options for Reaching Internal and External Balance. Maintaining Internal Balance. .

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Maintaining External Balance. Expenditure-Changing and Expenditure-Switching Policies. The External Balance Problem of the United States under Bretton Woods. Case Study: The End of Bretton Woods, Worldwide Inflation, and the Transition to Floating Rates. The Mechanics of Imported Inflation. Assessment. The Case for Floating Exchange Rates. Monetary Policy Autonomy. Symmetry. Exchange Rates as Automatic Stabilizers. Exchange Rates and External Balance. Case Study: The First Years of Floating Rates, 1973–1990. Macroeconomic Interdependence under a Floating Rate. Case Study: Transformation and Crisis in the World Economy. Box: The Thorny Problem of Currency Manipulation. Case Study: The Dangers of Deflation. What Has Been Learned Since 1973? Monetary Policy Autonomy. Symmetry. The Exchange Rate as an Automatic Stabilizer. External Balance. The Problem of Policy Coordination. Are Fixed Exchange Rates Even an Option for Most Countries?

Summary APPENDIX TO CHAPTER 19: International Policy Coordination Failures

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Chapter Overview

This is the first of four international monetary policy chapters. These chapters complement the preceding theory chapters in several ways. They provide the historical and institutional background students require to place their theoretical knowledge in a useful context. The chapters also allow students, through study of historical and current events, to sharpen their grasp of the theoretical models and to develop the intuition those models can provide. (Application of the theory to events of current interest will hopefully motivate

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students to return to earlier chapters and master points that may have been missed on the first pass.) Chapter 19 chronicles the evolution of the international monetary system from the gold standard of 1870– 1914, through the interwar years, the post-World War II Bretton Woods regime that ended in March 1973, and the system of managed floating exchange rates that have prevailed since. The central focus of the chapter is the manner in which each system addressed, or failed to address, the requirements of internal and external balance for its participants. A country is in internal balance when its resources are fully employed and there is price level stability. External balance implies maintaining a level of the current account that allows the most important gains from trade to be realized over time without risking a debt crisis (excessive current account deficit) or limiting domestic investment (excessive current account surplus). Governments may not know exactly what the optimal time path of the current account should be, so they generally try to avoid excessive current account deficits or surpluses. Underlying each of these exchange rate systems is the “open economy trilemma,” the observation that you can have two, but never three, of the following: exchange rate stability, independent monetary policy, and free capital mobility. Whereas the gold standard traded independent monetary policy for exchange rate stability and capital mobility, the Bretton Woods system allowed for autonomous monetary policy by limiting capital flows. The modern era of floating exchange rates sacrifices currency stability in exchange for independent monetary policy and capital mobility. The gold standard of 1870-1914 had several strengths and weaknesses. The primary responsibility of the central bank under the gold standard was to fix the exchange rate between its currency and gold. External balance was seen as the situation in which the country was neither gaining too much gold from abroad nor losing too much gold to foreign countries. The “rules of the game” under the gold standard instructed central banks to sell domestic assets when experiencing outflows of gold (raising interest rates and attracting foreign capital) and to buy domestic assets when experiencing inflows of gold (lowering interest rates and incentivizing capital outflows). In practice, there was little incentive for countries with expanding gold reserves to follow these “rules of the game.” This increased the contractionary burden shouldered by countries with persistent current account deficits. The gold standard also subjugated internal balance to the demands of external balance. Research suggests price level stability and high employment were attained less consistently under the gold standard than in the post-1945 period. The interwar years were marked by severe economic instability. The monetization of war debt and of reparation payments led to episodes of hyperinflation in Europe. An ill-fated attempt to return to the prewar gold parity for the pound led to stagnation in Britain. Competitive devaluations and protectionism were pursued in a futile effort to stimulate domestic economic growth during the Great Depression. These

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beggar-thy-neighbor policies provoked foreign retaliation and led to the disintegration of the world economy. As one of the case studies shows, strict adherence to the gold standard appears to have hurt many countries during the Great Depression. Determined to avoid repeating the mistakes of the interwar years, Allied economic policy makers met at Bretton Woods in 1944 to forge a new international monetary system for the postwar world. The exchange-rate regime that emerged from this conference had at its center the U.S. dollar. All other currencies had fixed exchange rates against the dollar, which itself had a fixed value in terms of gold. An International Monetary Fund was set up to oversee the system and facilitate its functioning by lending to countries with temporary balance of payments problems. A formal discussion of internal and external balance introduces the concepts of expenditure-switching and expenditure-changing policies. The Bretton Woods system, with its emphasis on infrequent adjustment of fixed parities, restricted the use of expenditure-switching policies. Increases in U.S. monetary growth to finance fiscal expenditures after the mid-1960s led to a loss of confidence in the dollar and the termination of the dollar’s convertibility into gold. The analysis presented in the text demonstrates how the Bretton Woods system forced countries to “import” inflation from the United States and shows that the breakdown of the system occurred when countries were no longer willing to accept this burden. Following the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system, many countries moved toward floating exchange rates. In theory, floating exchange rates have four key advantages: They allow for independent monetary policy; they are symmetric in terms of the costs of adjustment faced by deficit and surplus countries; they act as automatic stabilizers that mitigate the effects of economic shocks; and they help maintain external balance through stabilizing speculation that depreciates the currency of a country with a large currentaccount deficit. These advantages must be matched with the experience of countries running floating exchange rate regimes. Floating exchange rates should give countries greater autonomy over monetary policy. However, the evidence suggests that changes in monetary policy in one country do get transmitted across borders, limiting autonomy. Second, exchange rates have become less stable. For example, in the mid-1970s, the United States chose to pursue monetary expansion to fight a recession, whereas Germany and Japan contracted their money supplies to counter inflation. As a result, the dollar sharply depreciated against these currencies. The symmetry benefit of floating rates is also limited by the fact that the dollar still serves as the world’s reserve currency, much as it did under Bretton Woods. Although floating rates do work as automatic stabilizers, the effects may be unevenly distributed within countries. For example, the U.S. fiscal expansion of the 1980s appreciated the dollar, limiting inflation overall. However, U.S. farmers were hurt by this action as the stronger dollar weakened exports. With immobile factors of production,

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these asymmetric effects can have long-run consequences. Finally, empirical evidence suggests that external imbalances have actually increased since the adoption of floating exchange rates. The chapter concludes with a discussion of policy coordination under floating exchange rates. For example, a large country with a current-account deficit that attempts to reduce its imbalance could cause global deflation. There is also a market failure at work here in that policies by one country have external effects. For example, the 2007–2009 financial crisis sparked a number of fiscal expansions in countries. Increased government spending in the United States, for example, helped lift demand not just in the United States but in other countries as well. Another example is the worldwide economic contraction triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic. Output and trade fell considerably around the world, leading to significantly higher unemployment. Countries differed in terms of both the timing and extent of their responses to the pandemic. Some countries aggressively shut down their economies while others remained open. Some countries experienced much higher infection and mortality rates than others. Countries also differed in terms of the magnitude of their fiscal response to the economic slowdown. Given the interconnectedness of the global economy, these differential policies have had spillover effects across borders. Because the benefits of fiscal expansion are not fully internalized (though the costs are through accumulated budget deficits), there will be an inefficiently small expansion from a global perspective. Thus, international policy coordination, even in a world of flexible exchange rates, may still be warranted. This is especially relevant given the observation that given increased capital mobility, fixed exchange rates may not even be an option for most countries in a world without international coordination of monetary policy.

■

Answers to Textbook Problems

1. a.

Because it takes considerable investment to develop uranium mines, you would want a larger current-account deficit to allow your country to finance some of the investment with foreign savings.

b. A permanent increase in the world price of copper would cause a short-term current account deficit if the price rise leads you to invest more in copper mining. If there are no investment effects, you would not change your external balance target because it would be optimal simply to spend your additional income. c.

A temporary increase in the world price of copper would cause a current account surplus since you would likely not increase investment in response to a temporary price increase. Rather, your exports would increase in value as the price of your main export increases. You would want to smooth out your country’s consumption by saving some of its temporarily higher income.

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d. A temporary rise in the world price of oil would cause a current account deficit if you were an importer of oil, but a surplus if you were an exporter of oil. 2. Because the marginal propensity to consume out of income is less than 1, a transfer of income from B to A increases savings in A and decreases savings in B. Therefore, A has a current account surplus and B has a corresponding deficit. This corresponds to a balance of payments disequilibrium in Hume’s world, which must be financed by gold flows from B to A. These gold flows increase A’s money supply and decrease B’s money supply, pushing up prices in A and depressing prices in B. These price changes cease once the balance of payments equilibrium has been restored. 3. Changes in parities reflected both initial misalignments and balance of payments crises. Attempts to return to the parities of the prewar period after the war ignored the changes in underlying economic fundamentals that the war caused. This made some exchange rates less than fully credible and encouraged balance of payments crises. Central bank commitments to the gold parities were also less than credible after the wartime suspension of the gold standard and as a result of the increasing concern of governments with internal economic conditions. 4. A monetary contraction, under the gold standard, will lead to an increase in the gold holdings of the contracting country’s central bank if other countries do not pursue a similar policy. All countries cannot succeed in doing this simultaneously because the total stock of gold reserves is fixed in the short run. Under a reserve currency system, however, a monetary contraction causes an incipient rise in the domestic interest rate, which attracts foreign capital. The central bank must accommodate the inflow of foreign capital to preserve the exchange rate parity. There is thus an increase in the central bank’s holdings of foreign reserves equal to the fall in its holdings of domestic assets. There is no obstacle to a simultaneous increase in reserves by all central banks because central banks acquire more claims on the reserve currency country while their citizens end up with correspondingly greater liabilities. 5. The increase in domestic prices makes home exports less attractive and causes a current account deficit. This diminishes the money supply and causes contractionary pressures in the economy, which serve to mitigate and ultimately reverse wage demands and price increases. 6. An increase in the world interest rate leads to a fall in a central bank’s holdings of foreign reserves as domestic residents trade in their cash for foreign bonds. This leads to a decline in the home country’s money supply. The central bank of a “small” country cannot offset these effects because it cannot alter the world interest rate. An attempt to sterilize the reserve loss through open market purchases would fail unless bonds are imperfect substitutes.

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7. Capital account restrictions insulate the domestic interest rate from the world interest rate. Monetary policy, as well as fiscal policy, can be used to achieve internal balance. Because there are no offsetting capital flows, monetary policy, as well as fiscal policy, can be used to achieve internal balance. The costs of capital controls include the inefficiency, which is introduced when the domestic interest rate differs from the world rate, and the high costs of enforcing the controls. 8.

We are given that the growth rate in GDP may be computed as g = (GDPt + 1 − GDPt)/GDPt. Solving for GDP in time t + 1 yields: GDPt + 1 = GDPt(1 + g). Using this expression alongside that derived for IIPt + 1 allows us to compute: IIPt + 1/GDPt + 1 = [(1 + r)IIPt + NXt]/[GDPt(1 + g)] = [(1 + r)iipt + nxt]/(1 + g), where lower case variables denote ratios to GDP. To find the ratio of net exports to GDP that keeps the ratio of IIP to GDP constant, we simply need to solve the equation IIPt/GDPt = IIPt + 1/GDPt + 1 → iipt = [(1 + r)iipt + nxt]/(1 + g). Taking this equation and solving for nxt yields nxt = iip(g − r). In order for the international investment position as a fraction of GDP to stay constant, net exports must grow at a rate equal to the GDP growth rate less the interest rate earned (paid) on foreign assets (liabilities).

9. a.

We know that China has a very large current-account surplus, placing them high above the XX line. They also have moderate inflationary pressures (described as “gathering” in the question, implying they are not yet very strong). This suggests that China is above the II line but not too far above it. It would be placed in zone 1 (see below).

b. China needs to appreciate the exchange rate to move down on the graph toward the balance. (Shown on the graph with the dashed line down.) c.

China would need to expand government spending to move to the right and hit the overall balance point. This would expand the low level of government services and provide employment

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opportunities for workers moving from rural to urban areas. Such a policy would help cushion the negative aggregate demand pressure that the appreciation might generate. 10. The increase in foreign prices will shift the DD curve out to the right as demand for home products increases (exports rise, imports fall). If the expected exchange rate also falls, then there will be a leftward shift in the AA curve as foreign assets pay a lower home currency return. In the end, the home currency will appreciate by the same proportion as the increase in foreign prices, leaving output unchanged. There will be no change in the country’s internal or external balance.

11.

An increase in the foreign inflation rate should lead to a short-run appreciation of the domestic currency as consumers shift their consumption toward relatively cheaper domestic goods. The appreciation of the domestic currency will mitigate the effects of foreign inflation by reducing the price of imported goods. Thus, the flexible exchange rate does a better job of insulating the economy from foreign inflation than a fixed exchange rate would. In the long run, the increase in foreign inflation will work through relative PPP to cause home interest rates to fall relative to domestic rates. We can see this by combining the interest rate parity condition: %ΔEh/f = Rh − Rf with the relative PPP condition: %ΔEh/f = πh − π f to get: πh − π f = Rh − R f. Thus, an increase in πf will cause Rh − Rf to fall proportionately.

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12.

An increase in the risk premium on domestic assets will shift the AA curve to the right, reflecting the fact that asset market equilibrium is now attained at a higher exchange rate (depreciated domestic currency). With floating exchange rates, the depreciated currency will stimulate export demand, leading to a movement along the DD curve until general equilibrium is restored at both a depreciated currency (E2) and higher level of output (Y2). With a fixed exchange rate, the central bank would have to respond to the higher risk premium on domestic assets by raising domestic interest rates to keep the exchange rate constant at E1. As a result, the AA curve would shift back to its original level, and output would remain unchanged. Thus, the effect on output would be smallest for a fixed exchange-rate regime.

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13. The simple model of savings and investment against the real interest rate can be drawn as shown below. The increase in world savings can be shown as a rightward shift in the savings schedule. The result is that the world real interest rate falls and the amount of savings and investment rises. We can think of the “global savings glut” story here. World interest rates went down as large-scale savings (public and private), in emerging market countries in particular, increased the supply of world savings. This falling interest rate should lead to an increase in world investment. If this investment is in countries other than the ones who increased savings, then the increased investment and constant savings (or possibly falling savings due to the falling world real interest rate) in countries like the United States will lead to current account deficits in the United States and like countries and current account surpluses in the savings countries.

14. The board hereunder shows the values for the three groups of countries. The crisis had the effect of slowing the international trade (general decline in exports), which mainly affected the SSA, whereas the EM were only slightly affected and maintained a positive current account. The effects were stronger on capital movements as massive disinvestments occurred in the EM and the SSA. On the other hand, growth was not significantly affected in the EM and the SSA by the crisis (growth and inflation returned to their 2006 level in 2010), while in the advanced countries, signs of deflation can be discerned. These evolutions could mean that the developing economies (the EM and the SSA) are beginning to depend less on AE for their growth and to be able to conduct their development more autonomously - which remains to be confirmed. 15. If some Central Bank decides to substitute euros for dollars in its foreign exchange reserves, the effect will be to increase the autonomous liquidity position of the euro area and to reduce the amount of liquidity offered by the ECB in its monetary policy operations by an equivalent amount. Finally,

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the dollars sold are reflected in the balance sheet of the ECB, which reduced the amount of its refinancing operations accordingly. Changes in the composition of official reserves to the detriment of the dollar and to the euro have the same effect as sterilized interventions by the ECB. They increase the share of foreign exchange reserves in the balance sheet and are exactly compensated by a decrease in the amount of the monetary policy operations. Theoretically, sterilized interventions can influence the exchange rate in particular through an imperfect substitutability or portfolio effect in situations where public securities are not perfectly substitutable and in which investors have a risk aversion. Thus, in the case of imperfect substitutability between euro-denominated securities and those denominated in dollars (see Chapter 18 [7]), if the former becomes more in demand, to the detriment of the latter, their relative rate of return must decrease, which results in an increase in the exchange rate euro / dollar. It is only if this substitutability effect is important that the increase in the share of the euro in official reserves could contribute significantly to its appreciation vis-à-vis the dollar. However, this effect has not been demonstrated by empirical studies. Also, it is generally assumed that Central Bank interventions are generally too small to significantly and lastingly influence exchange rates. As explained in chapter 18 [7], if there is a perfect substitutability, sterilized intervention will have no effect and the exchange rate stays unchanged. (Source: “Politique de Change de L’Euro,” CAE, 2008, Christian Bordes) 16. It should be noted that current link is actually https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics. Students may find navigating the Australian Bureau of Statistics website challenging, given the large volume of information available on this site. That said, once the data has been collected, the solution to this problem is fairly straightforward. From problem 8, we know that the international investment position as a share of GDP will be constant when iip = nx/(g − r). Using this equation, solve for the interest rate that keeps iip constant when nx and g are at their historical averages: r = g − nx/iip Collecting annual data on nominal GDP, NX, and IIP from the Australian Bureau of Statistics from 1992 through 2020 gives average annual growth rate in nominal GDP of g = 5.50% and an average net exports to GDP ratio of nx = −0.65%. In 2020, the ratio of IIP to GDP was −48.23%. Thus, to maintain this IIP ratio, the interest rate earned (paid) on Australia’s foreign assets (liabilities) must be: r = 5.50% − (0.65%/48.23%) = 4.15%

Chapter 20 Financial Globalization: Opportunity and Crisis

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Chapter Organization

The International Capital Market and the Gains from Trade. Three Types of Gains from Trade. Risk Aversion. Portfolio Diversification as a Motive for International Asset Trade. The Menu of International Assets: Debt versus Equity. International Banking and the International Capital Market. The Structure of the International Capital Market. Offshore Banking and Offshore Currency Trading. The Shadow Banking System. Banking and Financial Fragility. The Problem of Bank Failure. Government Safeguards against Financial Instability. Moral Hazard and the Problem of “Too Big to Fail.” Box: Does the IMF Create Moral Hazard?. .

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The Challenge of Regulating International Banking. The Financial Trilemma. International Regulatory Cooperation through 2007. Case Study: The Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009. Box: Foreign Exchange Instability and Central Bank Swap Lines. International Regulatory Initiatives after the Global Financial Crisis. Metrics for International Capital Market Performance The Extent of International Portfolio Equity Diversification. The Extent of Intertemporal Trade. The Efficiency of International Asset-Price Arbitrage The Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Market.

Summary

Chapter 20

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Chapter Overview

The international capital market, involving Eurocurrencies, offshore bond and equity trading, and International Banking Facilities, initially may strike students as one of the more arcane areas covered in this course. Much of the apparent mystery is dispelled in this chapter. The chapter demonstrates that issues in this area are directly related to other issues already discussed in the course, including macroeconomic stability, the role of government intervention, and the gains from trade. Using the same logic that we applied to show the gains from trade in goods or the gains from intertemporal trade, we can see how the international exchanges of assets with different risk characteristics can make both parties to a transaction better off. International portfolio diversification allows people to reduce the variability of their wealth. When people are risk-averse, this diversification improves welfare. An important function of the international capital market is to facilitate such welfare-enhancing exchanges of both debt instruments (such as bonds) and equity instruments (such as stocks). Offshore banking activity is at the center of the international capital market. Central to offshore banking are Eurocurrencies (not to be confused with euros), which are bank deposits in one country that are denominated in terms of another country’s currency. Relatively lax regulation of Eurocurrency deposits compared with onshore deposits allows banks to pay relatively high returns on Eurocurrency deposits. This has fostered the rapid growth of offshore banking. Growth has also been spurred, however, by political factors, such as the reluctance of Arab OPEC members to place surplus funds in American banks after the first oil shock for fear of confiscation by the U.S. government following the confiscation of Iranian deposits in 1979. The text also introduces issues of regulating capital markets. Central to this task is the notion of how banks fail, and what can be done to prevent bank failures. Bank regulation presents a trade-off between financial stability and moral hazard. You want to promote confidence in the banking system through financial support, but too much support encourages risk taking by the banks. Deposit insurance, regulations, and lenders of

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last resort can all help prevent the lack of confidence in a banking system that can generate a run on the banking assets. International banking presents additional challenges as rules are not uniform, responsibility can be unclear, and enforcement is difficult. This tension is highlighted by the “financial trilemma,” the observation that you can only ever have two of the following three policy goals: financial stability, national control over financial safeguard policy (e.g., FDIC insurance), and free capital mobility. If for example, one country was perceived to be more likely to bail out their national banking system, then this would trigger a flow of capital to that country as well as increase the risk-taking behavior of that nation’s banks, reducing financial stability. Industrialized countries are involved in an effort to coordinate their bank supervision practices to enhance the stability of the global financial system. Common supervisory standards set by the Basel Committee were developed. Potential problems remain, however, especially regarding the clarification of the division of lender-of-last-resort responsibilities among countries and the increasingly large role of nonbank financial firms, which makes it harder for regulators to oversee global financial flows. The text highlights these regulatory difficulties using a case study of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009. This case study illustrates the difficult balance regulators face between creating moral hazard and maintaining financial stability. The financial crisis of 2007–2009 also highlights the increasingly important role played by nonbank financial institutions, the so-called “Shadow Banking System.” Though these institutions operate much like banks and their profits are intertwined with those of commercial banks, they are not regulated like commercial banks. Much of the riskiest behavior that contributed to the financial crisis was initiated by these institutions. In response, the U.S. Congress passed the Dodd-Frank Act, which allows the government to regulate these institutions like banks. This represents another example of the difficulty in balancing financial support (the bailouts of financial institutions) with moral hazard (increased supervision and regulation). The global aspect of the financial crisis is also highlighted with a discussion of Central Bank Swap Lines. European banks heavily invested in mortgage-backed securities because they were given good credit ratings and thus allowed these banks to hold less capital against their purchases of these assets. However, these

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banks did not want exposure to currency risk, so they financed their purchases by borrowing dollars in shortterm markets. When mortgage-backed securities plummeted in value, these European banks were faced with a dilemma. They could not be bailed out by their local central banks because they needed to pay back their debts in dollars. However, they did not want to sell their dollar-denominated assets at such a low price. To resolve this dilemma, the Federal Reserve stepped in and lent central banks around the world dollars, which they could in turn use to bail out their local commercial banks. This demonstrates an important aspect of increased capital mobility: the importance of policy coordination across countries. The evidence on the functioning of the international capital market is mixed. International portfolio diversification appears to be limited in reality despite the apparent gains in terms of reduced risk from international diversification. Intertemporal trade also appears to be lacking, as evidenced by the strong correlation between national savings and investment rates. Fully integrated capital markets should allow countries’ savings and investment rates to diverge as savings seeks out its most productive use worldwide, regardless of location.That said, the observed strong positive correlation between savings and investment rates has considerably weakened when examined using contemporary data. Another test of international capital market integration is whether onshore and offshore interest rates on similar assets denominated in the same currency differ considerably. Prior to the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2009, these interest rates were very close and highly correlated. However, since 2009, we have observed significant deviations in these interest rates, likely as a result of financial regulations that limit international arbitrage between these assets. The recent performance of one component of the international capital market, the foreign exchange market, has been the focus of public debate. Government intervention might be uncalled for if exchange-rate volatility reflects market fundamentals but may be justified if the international capital market is an inefficient, speculative market, drifting without the anchor of underlying fundamentals. The performance of the foreign exchange markets has been studied through tests of interest parity, tests based on forecast errors,

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attempts to model risk premiums, and tests for excess volatility. Research in this area presents mixed results that are difficult to interpret, and there is still much to be done.

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Answers to Textbook Problems

1. The better diversified portfolio is the one that contains stock in the petrol company and the pharmaceutical company because these two sectors do not undergo the same cyclical fluctuations (they are not correlated). The yield of a portfolio composed of correlated sectors like petrol and car should be more volatile than the one where evolutions could compensate one another. 2. Our two-country model (Chapter 19) showed that under a floating exchange rate, monetary expansion at home causes home output to rise but foreign output to fall. Thus, national outputs (and earnings of companies in the two countries) will tend to be negatively correlated under a floating rate if all shocks are monetary in nature. Chapter 18 suggests, however, that the correlation will be positive under a fixed rate if all shocks are monetary. The gains from international asset exchange are, therefore, likely to be greater under floating exchange rates, under the conditions assumed. 3. The main reason is political risk—as discussed in the Appendix to Chapter 14. 4. Financial crisis are often marked by “bank run” or “bank panic” (see recently Northern Rock in September 2007) where depositors lined up outside the bank to withdraw all of their savings as quickly as possible. To avoid this situation, and the catastrophic spillover effects it has on the whole banking system, the Bale III regulation introduce this LCR ratio. This ratio intends to assure that the banks have the capacity to respond to a massive cash withdrawal during 30 days, which gives time enough to find a more thorough solution.

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5. The figure 20-2 and the box on financial crisis 2007-2009 show that financial crisis has occurred rather frequently and that we have not learned to prevent them, although we believe that lessons have been drawn. (http://www.nber.org/papers/w13882.pdf ) 6. The controversy about the impact of the banking regulation reforms has been addressed several times. The main arguments have been exposed by the head of the FSB, Mark Carney, who explains in one of his speeches (http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2014/speech775.pdf): “the steps taken to make banks safer and simpler have certainly reduced the likely frequency and severity of future financial crises. In doing so, they have reduced the exorbitant costs of instability.” The Basel Committee assessed in 2010 that the economic cost of the median financial crisis amounted, over time, to 60% of national income. With a 5% probability of a crisis each year, that is equivalent to annual costs of 3% of GDP. For the G20 as a whole that is $2trn. By eroding these costs, financial reform alone can therefore more than deliver the G20 commitment to raise GDP by more than 2%. He adds “although tighter regulatory requirements have caused bank balance sheets to shrink, that does not translate fully into reduced access to credit for real economy borrowers. As I said, some of the reduction in bank-based intermediation has been substituted with market-based finance for the real economy. Moreover, as bank balance sheets have shrunk, and as they have rebalanced more towards traditional banking than trading, they have become more focused on the real economy.” Reference in the FSB report: http://www.fsb.org/wp-content/uploads/Report-on-implementation-andeffects-of-reforms.pdf 7. Banks are more highly regulated and have more stringent reporting requirements than other financial institutions. Securitization increases the role played by nonbank financial institutions over which regulators have less control. Regulators also do less monitoring of nonbank financial institutions. As the role of nonbank financial institutions increases with securitization, the proportion of the financial

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market that bank regulators oversee declines, as does the ability of these regulators to keep track of risks to the financial system. 8. Trade between countries faces so-called "non-tariff barriers" because they are not dependent on the relative competitiveness of the products but on national regulation (standards) imposed by the countries. Health regulations are among the most widely used. As they reduce the potential of foreign trade, they are often the subject of international trade negotiations to try to harmonize the standards. 9. No, real interest rate equality is not an accurate barometer of international financial integration. As we saw in Chapter 16, there is a real interest parity condition, which is that r = r* + %Δeq. Where r is the home real interest rate, r* is the foreign, and %Δeq is the expected percentage change in the real exchange rate. If there are real differences between countries’ productivity or trends in world demand that lead to expected changes in the real exchange rate over time, we may see different real interest rates despite perfectly functioning integrated financial markets. 10. Markets select investments primarily based on their financial profitability and riskiness, while economic and social usefulness is not fully taken into account. The creation of development banks makes it possible to take account of these objectives and introduces criteria other than stand-alone profitability in their granting. The development banks complement the market more than they question it. They find most of their resources in the financial markets to which they offer greater security in return for lower returns. The establishment of the World Bank was also part of the international financial system decided at Bretton Woods. The creation of AIIB, however, raises the question of its consistency with the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. 11. Japan gross foreign liabilities rise as the Brazilian has a claim on the equity fund, and Japan assets rise as the fund buys more Brazilian equity. Likewise, Brazil’s foreign assets and liabilities rise. But no Japanese citizen has altered his foreign holdings and the Brazilian has bought Brazilian stocks. It is true that the market is more globalized, but individual agents are no more diversified.

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12. This problem presents a trade-off between a bank’s desire to put as much of its operating capital to work earning a return and its desire to signal strong financial solvency. There are higher potential profits to be made when the bank finances its purchase of risky assets through borrowing. However, doing so reduces the bank’s ratio of capital to assets, lowering the threshold losses at which the bank becomes insolvent. Given the greater risk of this strategy, the bank will have to compensate its depositors with higher interest rates. These rates may be enough to actually make financing the asset purchase through a stock issue the better option. 13. The scenario in the previous problem changes if the bank’s creditors expect the government to bail out the bank if it becomes insolvent. In this case, the bank would in fact be better off financing its operations through additional borrowing because the interest it would pay on borrowing would now be lower. If the bank’s creditors are confident that the government will make good on the bank’s losses in the event of insolvency, then they do not need to be compensated nearly as much for the bank’s risky behavior. 14. Eurodollar interest rates exceed those on U.S. bank deposits after the global financial crisis because investors perceive greater risk in Eurodollar deposits than in U.S. deposits. The perception of greater risk can be related to the perception that the U.S. government had a greater willingness and likelihood to bail out struggling American banks than their counterparts in Europe do.

Chapter 21 Optimum Currency Areas and the Euro ■

Chapter Organization

How the European Single Currency Evolved. What Has Driven European Monetary Cooperation? Box: Brexit. The European Monetary System, 1979–1998. German Monetary Dominance and the Credibility Theory of the EMS. Market Integration Initiatives. European Economic and Monetary Union. The Euro and Economic Policy in the Euro Zone. The Maastricht Convergence Criteria and the Stability and Growth Pact. The European Central Bank and the Eurosystem. The Revised Exchange Rate Mechanism. The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas. Economic Integration and the Benefits of a Fixed Exchange Rate Area: The GG Schedule. Economic Integration and the Costs of a Fixed Exchange Rate Area: The LL Schedule. The Decision to Join a Currency Area: Putting the GG and LL Schedules Together. What Is an Optimum Currency Area? Other Important Considerations. Case Study: Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area? The Euro Crisis and the Future of EMU. Origins of the Crisis. Self-Fulfilling Government Default and the “Doom Loop.” A Broader Crisis and Policy Responses.

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ECB Outright Monetary Transactions. Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic The Future of EMU.

Summary ■

Chapter Overview

The establishment of a common European currency and the debate over its possible benefits and costs was one of the key economic topics of the 1990s. Students should be familiar with the euro but probably not with its technical aspects or its history. This chapter provides them with the historical and institutional background needed to understand this issue. It also introduces the idea of an optimum currency area and presents an analytical framework for understanding this concept. The discussion in this chapter points out that European monetary integration has been an ongoing process. Fixed exchange rates in Europe were a by-product of the Bretton Woods system. When strains began to appear in the Bretton Woods system, concerns arose about the effects of widely fluctuating exchange rates between European countries. The 1971 Werner Report called for the eventual goal of fixed exchange rates in Europe. Reasons for this included enhancing Europe’s role in the world monetary system, declining confidence that the United States would place its international monetary responsibilities ahead of national interests, and turning the European Union into a truly unified market. Also, many Europeans hoped economic unification would encourage political unification and prevent a repeat of Europe’s war-torn history. The first attempt at a post-Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate system in Europe was the “Snake.” This effort was limited in its membership and placed too high a burden of adjustment on countries with weak currencies. The European Monetary System (EMS), established in 1979, was more successful. The original member countries of the EMS included Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, Denmark, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Ireland. In later years, the roll of membership grew to include Spain, Great Britain, and Portugal. The EMS fixed exchange rates around a central parity. Most currencies were allowed to fluctuate above or below their central rate by 2.5%, although the original band for the Italian lira and the bands for the Spanish peseta and the Portuguese escudo allowed for fluctuations of 6% in either direction from the central parity. After attacks and realignments in its early years, the EMS grew to become sturdier than its predecessors. The presence of small bands instead of pure fixed rates helped, as did the guarantee of credit from strong to weak currency countries. The EMS was, in some sense, simply a peg to the DM. Many felt that the dominant position of the DM had allowed other countries to import Germany’s inflation fighting credibility and that this was another advantage of fixed rates in Europe. .

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A key component of the EMS was the presence of capital controls. However, limits on capital mobility were counter to a unified European market. Starting in 1987, capital controls were gradually phased out. The removal of these controls contributed to the EMS crisis of 1992–1993. German reunification had led to higher interest rates in Germany (to fight inflationary pressures), but other countries were not in a position to follow the rate hikes. Fierce attacks followed, and some countries (the United Kingdom and Italy) left the EMS in 1992, and the bands were widened to 15% in August 1993. In 1986, the European Union launched a more aggressive integration package known as “1992” that was intended to complete the internal market by 1992. To further that goal, a plan of the European Economic and Monetary Union, which involved a single currency and was embodied in the Maastricht Treaty, was begun, and by 1993 had been accepted by all EU countries. Reasons for pursuing a single currency included furthering market integration, broadening the viewpoint of monetary policy by moving decision making from the Bundesbank to a European Central Bank, avoiding the difficulties in maintaining fixed rates with free capital movements, and supporting political unification. A crucial aspect of EMU has been the goal of economic convergence embodied in the Maastricht convergence criteria and the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). These agreements stipulate low deficits and debt-to-GDP ratios and are an attempt by low-inflation countries to prevent free-spending counterparts from turning the euro into a weak currency. Eleven nations participated in the launch of the euro in 1999, with the United Kingdom and Denmark choosing not to join, Sweden failing the exchange rate stability criteria, and Greece failing all criteria (Greece joined two years later). The nations in the euro area have ceded monetary control to the Eurosystem, comprised of the European Central Bank (ECB) plus the 19 (at press!) national central banks of the euro area. The national central banks are now part of an overarching structure headed by the governing council of the ECB. The ECB is a very independent central bank with no political control and little accountability. In addition, a new exchange rate mechanism has begun in which non-euro EU members peg to the euro. There are both advantages and drawbacks to this decision to form a common currency union. The theory of optimum currency areas provides a way to frame an analysis of the benefits and costs of a single currency. The benefits of a common currency are the monetary efficiency gains realized when trade and payments are not subject to devaluation risk. These benefits rise with an increase in the amount of trade or factor flows, that is, with the extent of economic integration. A common currency also forces countries to give up their independence with regards to monetary policy (at least those countries that are not at the “center” of the system). This may lead to greater macroeconomic instability, although the instability is reduced the more integrated the country is with the other members of the common currency area. The analyses of the benefits and costs of membership in a common currency area are presented in the text chapter as the GG and LL

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schedules, respectively. The GG-LL framework is applied to the question of whether Europe is an optimum currency area. An illuminating way to frame the question is to compare the United States to Europe. The evidence that Europe is an optimum currency area is much weaker than the evidence supporting the notion that the United States is an optimum currency area. Trade among regions in the United States is much higher than trade among European countries. Labor is much more mobile within the United States than within Europe. This is significant as capital mobility has increased, suggesting that a country hit with a negative economic shock may actually experience worse unemployment given that capital will flow to other countries, while labor does not. Furthermore, federal transfers and changes in federal tax payments provide a much bigger cushion to region-specific shocks in the United States than do analogous EC revenues and expenditures, which have no clear mechanism for fiscal federalism. Finally, there are greater differences in factor endowments in Europe, which may promote greater regional specialization to take advantage of economies of scale. Such regional specialization increases the possibility of asymmetric shocks that a common monetary policy has difficulty dealing with. The chapter then considers the future of the EMU. The facts that the European Union is probably not an optimum currency area, that economic union is so far in front of political union, that EU labor markets are very rigid, and that the SGP constrains fiscal policies will all present challenges to Europe’s economy and to its policy makers in the years ahead. Additional challenges will be faced with the likely eastward expansion of the EMU, given the larger structural differences between current EMU members and the Central and Eastern European candidates that joined the European Union in 2004. In addition, the increased popularity of economic nationalism motivated by anti-immigrant fears that drove the Brexit vote presents an obstacle to further economic integration. Instructors may wish to call upon current events and news stories that illuminate how these challenges are being met. An illustration of how political considerations affect economics is given by the Brexit negotiations to maintain open borders between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland (in order to maintain the Good Friday agreement that ended decades of sectarian violence.) The sustainability of the EMU was put to the test with the euro zone debt crisis that originated in Greece in 2010. Budget deficits and debts in Greece were revealed to be much higher than had been reported, leading to a large selloff of Greek assets. Borrowing costs rose not only in Greece, but in fellow euro zone members Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain as investors worried that the debt crisis would rapidly spread. The roots of this crisis extended back even further, however, to a (later revealed to be false) sense of confidence in the debt of these euro zone countries on the periphery. The interest rate spreads between these nations and the most credit worthy countries using the euro (e.g., Germany) narrowed, injecting capital into these countries.

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Borrowing and spending rose dramatically, leading to large current account deficits in these periphery nations. Thus, when the financial crisis began, many of these nations were already deeply in debt. A swift bailout by the strong currency EMU members could have resolved the crisis, but countries like Germany did not want to pay the bill for excessive government spending by other nations. A combined bailout between the EMU and the IMF was eventually reached, but the plan was met with significant opposition, highlighting one of the difficulties in managing the currency union. Emerging from this crisis was recognition of the need to further coordinate fiscal policy across the Eurozone. The Fiscal Stability Treaty signed in 2013 by 16 countries attempts to achieve this goal. A potential advantage of currency union is given by the EU’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Loans to support health expenditures were made available to euro area countries and the European Investment Bank extended credit to small and medium sized enterprises. The EU also created a €750 billion recovery fund to be allocated in the form of grants to member countries. This kind of multilateral response underscores one of the advantages of regional cooperation among countries.

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Answers to Textbook Problems

1. The stability of the EMS depended upon the ability of member countries’ central banks to defend their currencies. The level of foreign currency reserves to which a central bank has access affects its ability to defend its currency; the larger the stock of reserves, the better positioned a central bank to defend its currency. Credits from the central bank of a strong-currency country can help a weak-currency central bank defend its currency by putting at its disposal more reserves when its currency is threatened. Participants in the foreign exchange market may be less apt to speculate against a weak currency if they know there are ample reserves in place to defend it. 2. The maximum change in the lira/DM exchange rate was 4.5% (if, for example, the lira starts out at the top of its band and then moves to the bottom of its band). If there was no risk of realignment, the maximum difference between a one-year DM and a one-year lira deposit would have reflected the possibility that the lira/DM exchange rate could have moved by 4.5% over the year; thus, by interest parity, the interest differential would have been 4.5%. The maximum possible difference between a six-month DM and a six-month lira deposit would have been about 9%. This reflects the possibility that the lira/DM exchange rate could have moved by 4.5% over six months, which is an annualized rate of change of about 9% (1.045 × 1.045 = 1.092). The difference on three-month deposits could have been as high as 19.25% (1.0454). The intuitive explanation for these differences is that we are not

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holding constant the time over which the 4.5% change in the exchange rate occurs, but we are expressing all interest rates on an annualized basis. 3. A 3% difference on the annual rate of a five-year bond implied a difference over five years of 1.035 = 1.159 (that is 15.9%). This means that the predicted change in the lira/DM exchange rate over five years was far more than the amount that would be consistent with the maintenance of the EMS bands. Thus, there was little long-term credibility for the maintenance of the EMS band with these interest differentials on five-year bonds. 4. The answers to the previous two questions are based upon the relationship between interest rates and exchange rates implied by interest parity because this condition links the returns on assets denominated in different currencies. A risk premium would introduce another factor into this relationship such that the interest differentials would not equal the expected change in the exchange rate. 5. A favorable shift in demand for a country’s goods appreciates that country’s real exchange rate. A favorable shift in the world demand for non-Norwegian EMU exports appreciates the euro (and hence the Norwegian krone) against non-euro currencies. This adversely affects Norwegian output. The adverse output effect for Norway is smaller the greater the proportion of trade between Norway and other euro-zone countries (and therefore the smaller the proportion of trade between Norway and non-euro-zone countries). 6.

Compare two countries that are identical except that one has larger and more frequent unexpected shifts in its money-demand function. In the DD-AA diagrams for each country, the one with the more unstable money demand has larger and more frequent shifts in its AA schedule resulting in bigger shifts in its output. The country with the more unstable money demand would benefit more from a policy rule under which authorities offset shifts in money demand; one such rule would be a fixed exchange rate. Therefore, the economic stability loss from pegging the exchange rate would be lower for a country with a more unstable money demand; its LL schedule would be below and to the left of the LL schedule of a country with a stable money demand. The GG-LL analysis suggests that a country with relatively unstable money demand would find it advantageous to join a currency union at a lower level of monetary integration than would a country with relatively stable money demand.

a. While in the ERM, British monetary authorities were obliged to maintain nominal interest rates at a level commensurate with keeping the pound in the currency band. If this obligation were removed, British monetary authorities could run an expansionary policy to stimulate the economy. This would cause the pound to depreciate vis-à-vis the DM and other currencies. b. Writers at the Economist believe that expected future inflation will rise in Britain if it leaves the EMS, which will cause nominal interest rates to rise through the Fisher effect.

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c. British policy makers may have gained credibility as being strongly committed to fight inflation and to maintain the pound’s value through Britain’s membership in the ERM because they were willing to allow the British economy to go through a protracted slump without resorting to a monetary expansion, which would have jeopardized their membership in the ERM. d. A high level of British interest rates relative to German interest rates would suggest high future inflation in Britain relative to that in Germany by the Fisher relationship. Higher British interest rates may also result from a relatively higher money demand in Britain (perhaps due to relatively higher British output) or relatively lower money supply growth in Britain than in Germany. e. British interest rates may have been higher than German interest rates if British output were relatively higher. The smaller gap at the time of the writing of the article cited may reflect relatively poor British output growth over the past two years. Also, German real interest rates may have risen because of the increased demand for capital for investing in eastern Germany after reunification. 8. Each central bank would have benefited from issuing currency because it would have gained seigniorage revenues when it printed money; that is, it could have traded money for goods and services. Money creation leads to inflation, which central banks dislike. With a system of central banks, however, each country’s central bank would have received the full benefit of the seigniorage revenues from money creation but would only partially bear the cost of higher inflation because this effect would have been somewhat dissipated across the entire EMS. This situation, where the central bank does not bear the full cost of its actions, is an example of an externality. It leads to more money creation than would otherwise occur if central bank actions were coordinated. 9. A single labor market would facilitate the response of member countries to country-specific shocks. Suppose there is a fall in the demand for French goods that results in higher unemployment in France. If French workers could easily migrate to other countries where opportunities for employment were better, the effect of the reduction in demand is mitigated. If workers could not move, however, there is a greater incentive to devalue the franc to make workers more competitive with respect to workers in other countries. EMU’s success, in many respects, depends on the ability of labor markets to make the adjustments that can no longer be made by the exchange rate. The absence of a unified labor market would mean all adjustments would have to come through internal wage adjustments, a difficult prospect. 10. a. The table below compares the average rates of inflation, unemployment, and real GDP growth in the United Kingdom and the euro zone from 1998–2019 using data from the World Bank.

United Kingdom

Inflation 1.66%

Unemployment 5.38%

Real GDP Growth 2.68%

Euro Zone

1.67%

9.78%

2.03%

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The United Kingdom has had a stronger economy for much of the period since 1998 as compared to averages across the euro zone. Real GDP growth rates have been higher and unemployment has been lower. This has been accomplished with about the same rate of inflation. On the surface, this may suggest that the United Kingdom has done well despite (or perhaps because of) not being a member of the euro area. However, we cannot make this conclusion as we do not know how the United Kingdom would have done as a member. It is entirely possible that they would have had an even stronger economy as a member of the euro area. b. The chart below gives the central bank interest rates for both the UK and the euro zone between 1999 and 2016.

Had the United Kingdom been part of the euro area, it would have shared monetary policy with the other countries. On the one hand, this would have meant interest rates were perhaps too low for the United Kingdom, accelerating growth there and likely pushing inflation outside the 2% target range the United Kingdom prefers. At the same time, adding the United Kingdom to the euro area would have meant that the average growth rate and inflation rate in the euro area was higher. This may have led the ECB to a higher interest rate, which would have been inappropriate for countries like Germany who were experiencing slow growth and low inflation at this time. Interest rate differentials since 2009 have been much smaller, reflecting similar rates of inflation and real GDP growth in the United Kingdom and the euro zone. This suggests that since 2009, there would have been fewer chances for asymmetric effects of monetary policy had the United Kingdom adopted the euro. This comes with the caveat that unemployment rates across the euro zone have remained consistently higher than those in the United Kingdom over this period. 11. When the euro appreciated against China’s currency in 2007, EU countries that compete with China in third country export markets should have seen a larger drop in aggregate demand as various customers .

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may have switched to the suddenly relatively cheaper Chinese products. Germany should be hurt less than Greece given the assumptions in the question. If Greece had its own currency, it may have allowed its currency to depreciate against Germany slightly so that it had a smaller appreciation against China. This may have mitigated the effects on its exporters. 12. Much like the concern that individual country governments would borrow too much and put pressure on the ECB to print too much money, an excessive CA deficit of an individual country may signal excessive borrowing in that country and could signal a future need for bailouts by the monetary authority. In addition, though, excessive CA deficits at the local country level with EMU may signal that the euro is heavily appreciated against the particular countries’ major trading partners or that monetary policy has created an excessive spending or investment boom in a country. Either is a symptom that a single monetary policy may be problematic for these countries. 13. All of these countries experienced significant increases in their current account balances (though the increase in Italy has been more modest than the other nations.) This is not surprising, as each of these countries suffered large economic downturns during the 2007–2009 financial crisis. As income in a country falls, consumers will buy fewer imports, causing the current account to rise. This trend is amplified by the austerity reforms that many of these countries made as a condition of receiving financial assistance during the crisis. 14. If a country had an “escape clause” and could readily leave the Eurozone, the currency stability offered by a monetary union is weakened. If the ECB signals that it will no longer act as a lender of last resort to that country’s banks, loans to that country will become riskier. Combine these two results and we see that the country would become a significantly larger credit risk. As capital fled the country, it is very likely that the nation would choose to exercise its escape clause and leave the Eurozone. Doing so would give it some control over its own monetary policy and allow its currency to depreciate, mitigating some of the losses from the massive capital outflow. 15. A condition of the bailout package to Cyprus was that some bank deposits in Cypriot banks would essentially be taxed to help pay for the financial support. To make this tax binding, the government had to impose a restriction on capital leaving the country or else depositors in Cypriot banks would have taken their money out to avoid this tax. On another level, this requirement goes back to the open economy trilemma, the observation that you can never have all three of the following: fixed exchange rates, independent monetary policy, and capital mobility. The differential effects of the financial crisis across the Eurozone created a situation in which interest rates varied across countries, essentially breaking the common monetary policy of the

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currency union. As a result, the ECB had to decide upon maintaining currency stability or capital mobility. In the case of Cyprus, they chose to preserve currency stability by limiting capital mobility. 16. a. A fiscal expansion in Germany would shift the euro area DD curve to the right. If this is a permanent fiscal expansion, then the change in the expected exchange rate will also shift the AA curve down, reflecting the asset market clearing at an appreciated value of the euro. In the end, output remains unchanged and the euro gets stronger against other currencies. The effects on the other euro zone countries will depend on how much trade they have with countries outside the euro zone. The more trade they have, the stronger the negative effects of the appreciated euro on output and prices. If the fiscal expansion is temporary, only the DD curve will shift to the right. This will still lead to an appreciation of the euro as higher output increases money demand and interest rates, but this will be temporary. Assuming the euro zone started at full employment before the fiscal expansion, then the increase in government spending will eventually be offset by higher prices across the euro zone. b. If the euro zone is in a liquidity trap, then it is possible that a temporary fiscal expansion could get output back up to full employment if the region is initially along the flat portion of the AA curve. However, a permanent fiscal expansion will also shift the AA curve down because of the expected appreciation of the euro. This could exacerbate the liquidity trap.

Chapter 22 Developing Countries: Growth, Crisis, and Reform ■

Chapter Organization

Income, Wealth, and Growth in the World Economy. The Gap between Rich and Poor. Has the World Income Gap Narrowed Over Time? The Importance of Developing Countries for Global Growth. Structural Features of Developing Countries. Box: The Commodity Super Cycle. Developing-Country Borrowing and Debt. The Economics of Financial Inflows to Developing Countries. The Problem of Default. Alternative Forms of Financial Inflow. The Problem of “Original Sin.” The Debt Crisis of the 1980s. Reforms, Capital Inflows, and the Return of Crisis. East Asia: Success and Crisis. The East Asian Economic Miracle. Box: Why Have Developing Countries Accumulated High Levels of International Reserves? Asian Weaknesses. Box: What Did East Asia Do Right? The Asian Financial Crisis. Lessons of Developing-Country Crises. Reforming the World’s Financial “Architecture.” Capital Mobility and the Trilemma of the Exchange Rate Regime. “Prophylactic” Measures.

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Coping with Crisis. Box: Emerging Markets and Global Financial Cycles Understanding Global Capital Flows and the Global Distribution of Income: Is Geography Destiny? Box: Capital Paradoxes.

Summary ■

Chapter Overview

This chapter provides the theoretical and historical background students need to understand the macroeconomic characteristics of developing countries, the problems these countries face, and some proposed solutions to these problems. The chapter begins by discussing how the economies of developing countries differ from industrial economies. The wide differences in per capita income and life expectancy across different classes of all countries are striking. Some economic theories predict growth convergence, and there is evidence of such a pattern among industrialized nations, but no clear pattern emerges among developing countries. Some have grown rapidly, while others have struggled. Overall however, developing countries have accounted for an increasingly large portion of both global GDP and global economic growth. There are important structural differences between developing economies and industrial economies. Governments in developing countries have a pervasive role in the economy, setting many prices and limiting transactions in a wide variety of markets; this can contribute to higher levels of corruption. These governments often finance their budget deficits through seigniorage, leading to high and persistent inflation. The economies of developing countries are typically not well diversified, with a small number of commodities providing the bulk of exports. These commodities, which may be natural resources or agricultural products have exhibited a volatile boom and bust cycle over the past two decades. Finally, economies of developing countries typically lack developed financial markets and often rely on fixed exchange rates and capital controls. There is a discussion of the use of seigniorage in developing countries in the text. You may want to use the discussion of seigniorage in the text as a springboard for a more in-depth discussion of this topic. In particular, you could present a model of where seigniorage revenue is a function of the inflation rate chosen. The function is concave, at first increasing but eventually decreasing as high inflation leads people to hold less money (see Figure 22-1 below). It is much like the Laffer curve for taxation. This helps explain how similar seigniorage revenues may come from widely different inflation levels.

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Figure 22-1 In principle, developing countries (and the banks lending to them) should enjoy large gains from intertemporal trade. Developing countries, with their rich investment opportunities relative to domestic saving, can build up their capital stocks through borrowing. They can then repay interest and principal out of the future output the capital generates. Developing-country borrowing can take the form of equity finance, direct foreign investment, or debt finance, including bond finance, bank loans, and official lending. These gains from intertemporal trade are threatened by the possibility of default by developing countries. Developing countries have defaulted in many situations over time, from 19th century American states to most developing countries in the Depression to the debt crisis in the 1980s. If lenders lose confidence, they may refuse further lending, forcing developing countries to bring their current account into balance. These crises are driven by similar self-fulfilling mechanisms as exchange rate crises or bank runs (and are often referred to as “sudden stops” when financial flows stop running to developing countries seemingly without warning), and the discussion of debt default provides an opportunity to revisit the ideas of currency crises and bank runs before a full-fledged discussion of the East Asian crisis. It is important to recognize the different types of financing available to countries. Bond funding, bank borrowing, or official lending can all provide debt-oriented funding, while foreign direct investment or portfolio investment in firms can provide equity financing. In addition, countries can borrow in their own currency or in another currency. The chapter discusses the problem of “original sin” where many countries are unable to borrow in their own currency due to both problems in global capital markets and countries’ own histories of poor economic policies. The next section of the chapter focuses on the experiences of Latin America. In the 1970s, inflation became a widespread problem in Latin America, and many countries tried using a tablita, or crawling peg. The strategy, though, did not stop inflation, and large real appreciations were the result. Government-guaranteed loans were widespread, leading to moral hazard. By the early 1980s, collapsing commodity prices, a rising dollar, and high U.S. interest rates precipitated default in Mexico followed by other developing countries.

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After the debt crisis stretched through most of the decade and slowed developing country growth in many regions, debt renegotiations finally loosened burdens on many countries by the early 1990s. After the debt crisis appeared to be ending, capital began to flow back into many developing countries. These countries were finally undertaking serious economic reform to stabilize their economy. The chapter details these efforts in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico and also discusses how crisis unfortunately returned to some of these countries. For example, Argentina settled with its foreign creditors in 2005 for around a third of their debt obligations. This led to a brief period of stability, but in 2020 Argentina again reached a point where it needed to restructure its foreign debt following a default in 2019. Efforts to reduce corruption and implement economic reforms in Brazil and Mexico have been halting and limited by political cosiderations. Next, the chapter covers the success and subsequent crisis in Asia. The causes of success, such as high savings, strong education, stable macroeconomics, and high levels of trade are considered. Some aspects of the economies that remained weak, such as low productivity growth and weak financial regulation are also discussed. The crisis, beginning in August 1997, is explained in detail along with its spread to other developing countries. The lessons of these years of growth and crisis are summarized as: choosing the right exchange rate regime, the importance of banking, proper sequencing of reforms, and the importance of contagion. Because developing countries have relatively small financial markets, they are more susceptible to spillover effects from events in rich country financial markets. The monetary policy of the United States in particular has significant impacts on developing country financial markets. Empirical evidence suggests a strong correlation between the global financial cycle and economic growth in developing countries. When asset (equities, bonds, commodities, etc.) prices are high, economic growth in developing countries is strong. Similarly, a crash in global asset prices triggers a slowdown in developing country growth. Given the economic impact of the global financial cycle on developing country growth, the open economy trilemma may actually collapse to a dilemma for developing countries. They can either pursue independent monetary policy with strict capital controls or allow for capital mobility and accept the economic influence of the global financial cycle. Note that developing countries choice of exchange rate regime appears not to matter since even a country with a flexible exchange rate will have limited ability to affect economic growth through monetary policy given the outsized influence of global financial markets. That said, there is some evidence that developing countries with flexible exchange rates experience less volatility in economic growth as a result of global financial shocks as the exchange rate can still act to dampen these shocks. Finally, the chapter concludes with a section on current debates in the growth literature, chiefly a discussion of the relative importance of geography and institutions in driving income growth and levels. These factors

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are crucial to understanding the “Lucas puzzle” of why capital does not appear to be flowing to developing countries despite their low levels of capital, suggesting a high return in these countries. Rather, it appears that capital is flowing from the developing world to rich countries! Possible explanations for this puzzle include lower levels of human capital in developing countries as well as weaker institutions.

■

Answers to Textbook Problems

1. The amount of seigniorage governments collect does not grow monotonically with the rate of monetary expansion. The real revenue from seigniorage equals the money growth rate times the real balances held by the public. But higher monetary growth leads to higher expected future inflation and (through the Fisher effect) to higher nominal interest rates. To the extent that higher monetary growth raises the nominal interest rate and reduces the real balances people are willing to hold, it leads to a fall in real seigniorage. Across long-run equilibriums in which the nominal interest equals a constant real interest rate plus the monetary growth rate, a rise in the latter raises real seigniorage revenue only if the elasticity of real money demand with respect to the expected inflation rate is greater than −1. Economists believe that at very high inflation rates this elasticity becomes very negative (quite large in absolute value). 2. As discussed in the answer to Problem 1, the real revenue from seigniorage equals the money growth rate times the real balances held by the public. Higher monetary growth leads to higher expected future inflation, higher nominal interest rates, and a reduction in the real balances people are willing to hold. In a year in which inflation is 100% and rising, the amount of real balances people are willing to hold is less than in a year in which inflation is 100% and falling; thus, seigniorage revenues would be higher in 1990, when inflation is falling, than in 2000, when inflation was rising. 3. Although Brazil’s inflation rate averaged 147% between 1980 and 1985, its seigniorage revenues, as a percentage of output, were less than half the seigniorage revenues of Sierra Leone, which had an average inflation rate of 43%. Because seigniorage is the product of inflation and real balances held by the public, the difference in seigniorage revenues reflects lower holdings of real balances in Brazil than in Sierra Leone. In the face of higher inflation, Brazilians find it more advantageous than residents of Sierra Leone to economize on their money holdings. This may be reflected in a financial structure in which money need not be held for very long to make transactions due to innovations such as automatic teller machines. 4. Under interest parity, the nominal interest rate of the country with the crawling peg will exceed the foreign interest rate by 10% because expected currency depreciation (equal to 10%) must equal the interest differential. If the crawling peg is not fully credible, the interest differential will be higher as the possibility of a large devaluation makes the expected depreciation larger than the announced 10%.

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5. Capital flight exacerbates debt problems because the government is left holding a greater external debt itself but may be unable to identify and tax the people who bought the central bank reserves that are the counterpart of the debt and now hold the money in foreign bank accounts. To service its higher debt, therefore, the government must tax those who did not benefit from the opportunity to move funds out of the country. There is thus a change in the domestic income distribution in favor of people who are likely to be quite well off already. Such a regressive change may trigger political problems. 6. There may have been less lending available to private firms than to state-owned firms if lenders felt that state guarantees ensured repayment by state-owned firms. (In some cases, such as that of Chile, however, the government was pressured ex post into taking over the debts even of private borrowers.) Private firms may also have faced more discipline from the market—their operating losses are unlikely to be covered with public revenues. Private firms would therefore have had to restrict borrowing to investment projects of high quality. 7. By making the economy more open to trade and to trade disruption, liberalization is likely to enhance a developing country’s ability to borrow abroad. In effect, the penalty for default is increased. In addition, of course, a higher export level reassures prospective lenders about the country’s ability to service its debts in the future. Finally, by choosing policies that international lenders consider sound, such as open markets, countries improve lenders assessment of their creditworthiness. 8. Cutting investment today will lead to a loss of output tomorrow, so this may be a very shortsighted strategy. Political expediency, however, makes it easier to cut investment than consumption. 9.

If Argentina dollarizes its economy, it will buy dollars from the United States with goods, services, and assets. This is, in essence, giving the U.S. Federal Reserve assets for green paper to use as domestic currency. Because Argentina already operates a currency board holding U.S. bonds as its assets, dollarization would not be as radical as it would be for a country whose central banks hold domestic assets. Argentina can trade the U.S. bonds it holds for dollars to use as currency. When money demand increases, the currency board cannot simply print pesos and exchange them for goods and services; it must sell pesos and buy U.S. government bonds. So, in switching to dollarization, the government has not surrendered its power to tax its own people through seigniorage; it already does not have that power. Still, though, through dollarization, Argentina loses interest by holding non-interest-bearing dollar bills instead of interest-bearing U.S. Treasury bonds. Thus, the size of the seigniorage given to the United States each year would be the lost interest (the U.S. nominal interest rate times the money stock of Argentina). This comes on top of the fact that any expansion of the money supply requires sending real goods, services, or assets to the United States for dollars (as they do with bonds under the currency

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board). This is not a long-run loss because Argentina could cash in those dollars (just as it could the bonds) for goods and services from the United States whenever it wants. So, what they lose is the interest they should be getting every year they hold the dollars. 10. No. Looking simply at countries that are currently industrialized and finding convergence is not a valid way to test convergence. Countries that are currently well off may have started from a variety of circumstances, but by only choosing countries that are currently wealthy, we are forcing a finding of convergence. It was an understandable error because currently rich countries are ones that are far more likely to have sufficiently long data series to test convergence, but only by looking at a broad array of countries can we truly test whether we should expect those countries that are currently poor to “catch up” to their richer counterparts. 11. The moral hazard comes from the fact that borrowers may borrow in a foreign currency, assuming the government will keep its promise to hold the exchange rate constant. Rather than hedging against the risk of exchange rate volatility, these borrowers assume the government will prevent the risk from materializing. The moral hazard comes from the fact that these borrowers engage in a risky behavior and assume the government will keep the exchange rate fixed—in part because of the promise to do so, but in part to prevent damage to these firms who have borrowed in a foreign currency. 12. Liability dollarization means that not only do participants in global financial markets face exchange rate risk, but many citizens simply participating in local markets face these risks. This means that a depreciation can have far more widespread effects throughout the economy. If mortgages are in U.S. dollars (as in Argentina in 2001), then workers who earn the local currency will suddenly be unable to pay their mortgage as the local currency value of their debt payments go up, but their income does not. This can lead to widespread defaults throughout the economy unless something is done to alleviate the impact. One of the only choices, though, is to convert the dollar loans to local currency loans, but this has a serious impact on the lenders if they have balanced their dollar assets with dollar liabilities. Finally, if enough local borrowers go bankrupt due to the adverse balance sheet effects, this could cause enough defaults to make the whole banking system insolvent. 13. The production function in both countries is given by Y = AKαL1-α. We can convert this into a per worker production function by dividing both sides by L. Y/L = AKαL-α = A(K/L)α. For ease of notation, let lowercase letters denote per worker values so that y = Akα. From Table 22-2, we see that for 2017, yInd = $6,548 and yUS = $54,586. Thus, the ratio of the two countries out per worker is yInd/yUS = $6,548/$54,586 = 0.12. Output per worker in India is 12% as large as output per worker in the United States.

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Given these numbers, what value for A (multifactor productivity) would set the two countries marginal products of capital equal to one another? We can find this by looking at the MPK function: MPK = αAKα − 1 L1 − α = αAkα − 1 Comparing the MPK to y, we can see that MPK = αy/k. If we take the ratio of the MPK’s for India and the United States, we will get MPKInd/MPKUS = (yInd/yUS)(kUS/kInd). If the MPK’s are equal between the two countries, then the ratio will be equal to 1. Thus, we know that for the MPK’s to be equal, it must be the case that yInd/yUS = kInd/kUS. We

can

show

that

k = (y/A)1/α.

Plugging

into

the

expression

above

gives

yInd/yUS = [(yInd/AInd)/(yUS/AUS)]1/α. Solving for AInd/AUS yields: AInd/AUS = (yInd/yUS)1 − α = 0.121 – α For example, if α = 0.3 (capital’s share of output is 30%), then the ratio AInd/AUS must be equal to 0.227. For both countries to have the same marginal products of capital (and thus the same return on investment), multifactor productivity in India must be significantly lower (22.7% as large) than in the United States given the much higher level of capital in the United States.