Real Estate Trends Report February 2013

Page 1






Pending Home Sales 110

105

100

95

90

85

80 Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

NAR 1/2013


Pending Home Sales 110

105 100 = Historically Healthy Level

100

December 2011 – December 2012

95

90

85

December 2010 – December 2011 80 Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

NAR 1/2013


Single Family Sales (year-over-year) NORTHEAST +2.8%

WEST +1.2%

MIDWEST +9.7% SOUTH +7.5% U.S. AVERAGE +5.8% NAR 2/2013


Condo & Co-op Sales (year-over-year) NORTHEAST +12.5%

WEST No Change

MIDWEST +25% SOUTH +25% U.S. AVERAGE +15.4% NAR 2/2013


$1M+ Home Sales (year-over-year) NORTHEAST +71.3%

WEST +66.7%

MIDWEST +48.0% SOUTH +47.4% U.S. AVERAGE +62.3% NAR 2/2013


Hottest Months for Online Housing by State Peak Month for Search Traffic, Relative to State’s Annual Average

Trulia 1/2013


Return on Investment

January 2000 – February 2013

MSN Money.com, Case Shiller


Mortgage Rates – 30 year fixed 5.25

5

4.75

4.5

4.25

4

3.75

3.5

11/1/2011 – 2/1/2013

3.25

Freddie Mac 2/1/2013


Mortgage Rates Moving Forward “After reaching record lows in 2012, mortgage rates are expected to creep up slowly in 2013, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicted.� 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1

4.4 Projected 30 Year Mortgage Rate

0.5 0

2013 4Q MarketWatch 10/24/2012


Mortgage Rates - 30 year fixed 3.55

12/01/2012 – 2/1/2013

3.5

3.45

3.4

3.35

3.3

Freddie Mac 2/1/2013


Quality Residential Mortgage - QRM 1.) A Product-Type qualified residential mortgage is a first-lien mortgage that is for an owner-occupant with fully documented income, fully amortizing with a maturity that does not exceed 30 years and, in the case of adjustable ratemortgages (ARMs), has an interest rate reset limit of 2 percent annually and a limit of 6 percent over the life of the loan. 2.) A PTI/DTI qualified residential mortgage has a borrower’s ratio of monthly housing debt to monthly gross income that does not exceed 28 percent and a borrower’s total monthly debt to monthly gross income that does not exceed 36 percent. 3.) An LTV ratio qualified residential mortgage must meet a minimum LTV ratio that varies according to the purpose for which the mortgage was originated. For home purchase mortgages the LTV ratio is 80 percent. 4.) A FICO qualified residential mortgage has a borrower’s FICO score greater than or equal to 690 at the origination of the loan. Mortgage Market Note #11-02 3/31/2011


QRM & the 20% Down Payment “The six regulators drafting the separate QRM rule, including the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Securities and Exchange Commission, must decide whether to include such a requirement — and whether to make it less than the 20 percent they originally proposed.” Bloomberg 01/18/2013


Months Supply & Impact on Price Months

Market

Pricing

1- 4

Sellers

Appreciation

5-6

Even

The Norm

7+

Buyers

Depreciation


Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale 10.0 9.0

8.0 7.0 6.0

5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory

5.0 4.0

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

NAR 1/2013


S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices 6.0%

5.5%

Year-over-Year Change in Prices 4.3% 3.6%

4.0%

2.0%

2.0%

0.0%

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May -0.5%

-2.0%

0.6%

Jun

1.1%

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

-1.7% -2.5%

-4.0%

-3.9%

-3.5%

-6.0%

S&P Case Shiller 1/2013


S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Metropolitan Area

Year-over-Year

Metropolitan Area

Year-over-Year

Atlanta

7.6%

Miami

9.9%

Boston

2.3%

Minneapolis

11.1%

Charlotte

5.1%

New York

-1.2

Chicago

0.8%

Phoenix

22.8%

Cleveland

1.8%

Portland

6.7%

Dallas

5.7%

San Diego

8.0%

Denver

7.8%

San Francisco

12.7%

Detroit

11.9%

Seattle

7.4%

Las Vegas

10.0%

Tampa

6.8%

Los Angeles

7.7%

Washington

4.4%

S&P Case Shiller 1/2013


S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Metropolitan Area

M-o-M

Metropolitan Area

M-o-M

Atlanta

0.1

Miami

0.8

Boston

-0.9

Minneapolis

1.0

Charlotte

-0.3

New York

-1.1

Chicago

-1.3

Phoenix

1.4

Cleveland

-0.8

Portland

-0.2

Dallas

-0.1

San Diego

0.9

Denver

0.4

San Francisco

1.4

Detroit

-0.3

Seattle

0.5

Las Vegas

0.4

Tampa

-0.2

Los Angeles

0.4

Washington

-0.6 S&P Case Shiller 1/2013


Home Prices in the Short Term 150.00

2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

145.00

140.00

135.00

130.00

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

S&P Case Shiller 1/2013


Percentage of Distressed Property Sales 35%

35% 30%

25%

24% 20% Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

Dec

NAR 1/2013


U.S. Properties with Foreclosure Filings 3500

in thousands

3000

2,824.7

2500

2,871.9

2,330.5

2000

1500

1,836.6

2011

2012

1,285.9

1000

500

1,887.8

532.8

717.5

0

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Realty Trac 1/2013


Percentage of Foreclosures by Price Point 3%

3% 1% 1% < $50K

6%

7%

$50-100K

27%

15%

$100-200K $200-300K

$300-400K

37%

$400-500K $500-750K

$750K-$1M >$1M

Realty Trac 1/2013


Two graphs that show the distressed property challenge is moving to different parts of the country.

Moody’s Analytics 1/2013


Capital Economics “The Northeast is much more likely to see no price growth at all than anything close to the 5 percent national average this year, the analytics firm stated in a recent outlook.

Northeastern states have relatively long foreclosure timelines, and their rate of foreclosure as of the third quarter of last year was 5.6%.This compares to just 2.7% in the West.� DSNews 01/31/2013


Average Days to Foreclosure – 4Q 2012 1200

1,089

1000 800

853

600 400

347

200 0

113

Texas

California

Florida

New York

Realty Trac 1/2013


Resources Slide

Slide Title

Link

5,6,7,8, 9

Pending Home Sales, Single Family Sales, Condo & Co-Op Sales, $1M+ Home Sales

http://www.realtor.org

12,14

Mortgage Rates

http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms

13

Mortgage Rates Moving Forward

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-will-rise-next-year-but-slowly-2012-10-24

15

Quality Residential Mortgage - QRM

http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/20686/QRM_FINAL_ALL.pdf

16

QRM & the 20% Down Payment

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-18/housing-industry-awaits-down-payment-rulefor-mortgages.html

18

Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale

http://www.realtor.org

19, 21, 22, 23

S&P Case Shiller Home Price Indices, Home Prices in the Short Term

http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/articles/en/us/?articleType=PDF&assetID=124534 6789036

24

Percentage of Distressed Property Sales

http://www.realtor.org

25, 26

U.S. Properties with Foreclosure Filings, Percentage of Foreclosures by Price Point

http://www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report/2012-year-end-foreclosuremarket-report-7547

27

Two Graphs

PAID SERVICE http://www.economy.com/dismal/pro/article.asp?cid=236942

28

Capital Economics

http://www.dsnews.com/articles/home-price-expectations-vastly-different-for-northeast-vswest-2013-01-31

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM


Resources Slide

Slide Title

Link

29

Average Days to Foreclosure – 4Q 2012

http://www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report/2012-year-end-foreclosure-marketreport-7547

30

Building Trust is Most Important

http://media.ford.com/images/10031/fordtrendbook2013.pdf

KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM



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