Pending Home Sales 110
105
100
95
90
85
80 Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
NAR 1/2013
Pending Home Sales 110
105 100 = Historically Healthy Level
100
December 2011 – December 2012
95
90
85
December 2010 – December 2011 80 Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
NAR 1/2013
Single Family Sales (year-over-year) NORTHEAST +2.8%
WEST +1.2%
MIDWEST +9.7% SOUTH +7.5% U.S. AVERAGE +5.8% NAR 2/2013
Condo & Co-op Sales (year-over-year) NORTHEAST +12.5%
WEST No Change
MIDWEST +25% SOUTH +25% U.S. AVERAGE +15.4% NAR 2/2013
$1M+ Home Sales (year-over-year) NORTHEAST +71.3%
WEST +66.7%
MIDWEST +48.0% SOUTH +47.4% U.S. AVERAGE +62.3% NAR 2/2013
Hottest Months for Online Housing by State Peak Month for Search Traffic, Relative to State’s Annual Average
Trulia 1/2013
Return on Investment
January 2000 – February 2013
MSN Money.com, Case Shiller
Mortgage Rates – 30 year fixed 5.25
5
4.75
4.5
4.25
4
3.75
3.5
11/1/2011 – 2/1/2013
3.25
Freddie Mac 2/1/2013
Mortgage Rates Moving Forward “After reaching record lows in 2012, mortgage rates are expected to creep up slowly in 2013, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicted.� 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1
4.4 Projected 30 Year Mortgage Rate
0.5 0
2013 4Q MarketWatch 10/24/2012
Mortgage Rates - 30 year fixed 3.55
12/01/2012 – 2/1/2013
3.5
3.45
3.4
3.35
3.3
Freddie Mac 2/1/2013
Quality Residential Mortgage - QRM 1.) A Product-Type qualified residential mortgage is a first-lien mortgage that is for an owner-occupant with fully documented income, fully amortizing with a maturity that does not exceed 30 years and, in the case of adjustable ratemortgages (ARMs), has an interest rate reset limit of 2 percent annually and a limit of 6 percent over the life of the loan. 2.) A PTI/DTI qualified residential mortgage has a borrower’s ratio of monthly housing debt to monthly gross income that does not exceed 28 percent and a borrower’s total monthly debt to monthly gross income that does not exceed 36 percent. 3.) An LTV ratio qualified residential mortgage must meet a minimum LTV ratio that varies according to the purpose for which the mortgage was originated. For home purchase mortgages the LTV ratio is 80 percent. 4.) A FICO qualified residential mortgage has a borrower’s FICO score greater than or equal to 690 at the origination of the loan. Mortgage Market Note #11-02 3/31/2011
QRM & the 20% Down Payment “The six regulators drafting the separate QRM rule, including the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Securities and Exchange Commission, must decide whether to include such a requirement — and whether to make it less than the 20 percent they originally proposed.” Bloomberg 01/18/2013
Months Supply & Impact on Price Months
Market
Pricing
1- 4
Sellers
Appreciation
5-6
Even
The Norm
7+
Buyers
Depreciation
Month’s Inventory of Homes for Sale 10.0 9.0
8.0 7.0 6.0
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
5.0 4.0
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
NAR 1/2013
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices 6.0%
5.5%
Year-over-Year Change in Prices 4.3% 3.6%
4.0%
2.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May -0.5%
-2.0%
0.6%
Jun
1.1%
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
-1.7% -2.5%
-4.0%
-3.9%
-3.5%
-6.0%
S&P Case Shiller 1/2013
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Metropolitan Area
Year-over-Year
Metropolitan Area
Year-over-Year
Atlanta
7.6%
Miami
9.9%
Boston
2.3%
Minneapolis
11.1%
Charlotte
5.1%
New York
-1.2
Chicago
0.8%
Phoenix
22.8%
Cleveland
1.8%
Portland
6.7%
Dallas
5.7%
San Diego
8.0%
Denver
7.8%
San Francisco
12.7%
Detroit
11.9%
Seattle
7.4%
Las Vegas
10.0%
Tampa
6.8%
Los Angeles
7.7%
Washington
4.4%
S&P Case Shiller 1/2013
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Metropolitan Area
M-o-M
Metropolitan Area
M-o-M
Atlanta
0.1
Miami
0.8
Boston
-0.9
Minneapolis
1.0
Charlotte
-0.3
New York
-1.1
Chicago
-1.3
Phoenix
1.4
Cleveland
-0.8
Portland
-0.2
Dallas
-0.1
San Diego
0.9
Denver
0.4
San Francisco
1.4
Detroit
-0.3
Seattle
0.5
Las Vegas
0.4
Tampa
-0.2
Los Angeles
0.4
Washington
-0.6 S&P Case Shiller 1/2013
Home Prices in the Short Term 150.00
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13
145.00
140.00
135.00
130.00
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
S&P Case Shiller 1/2013
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales 35%
35% 30%
25%
24% 20% Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
NAR 1/2013
U.S. Properties with Foreclosure Filings 3500
in thousands
3000
2,824.7
2500
2,871.9
2,330.5
2000
1500
1,836.6
2011
2012
1,285.9
1000
500
1,887.8
532.8
717.5
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Realty Trac 1/2013
Percentage of Foreclosures by Price Point 3%
3% 1% 1% < $50K
6%
7%
$50-100K
27%
15%
$100-200K $200-300K
$300-400K
37%
$400-500K $500-750K
$750K-$1M >$1M
Realty Trac 1/2013
Two graphs that show the distressed property challenge is moving to different parts of the country.
Moodyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Analytics 1/2013
Capital Economics â&#x20AC;&#x153;The Northeast is much more likely to see no price growth at all than anything close to the 5 percent national average this year, the analytics firm stated in a recent outlook.
Northeastern states have relatively long foreclosure timelines, and their rate of foreclosure as of the third quarter of last year was 5.6%.This compares to just 2.7% in the West.â&#x20AC;? DSNews 01/31/2013
Average Days to Foreclosure â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 4Q 2012 1200
1,089
1000 800
853
600 400
347
200 0
113
Texas
California
Florida
New York
Realty Trac 1/2013
Resources Slide
Slide Title
Link
5,6,7,8, 9
Pending Home Sales, Single Family Sales, Condo & Co-Op Sales, $1M+ Home Sales
http://www.realtor.org
12,14
Mortgage Rates
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
13
Mortgage Rates Moving Forward
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-will-rise-next-year-but-slowly-2012-10-24
15
Quality Residential Mortgage - QRM
http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/20686/QRM_FINAL_ALL.pdf
16
QRM & the 20% Down Payment
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-18/housing-industry-awaits-down-payment-rulefor-mortgages.html
18
Monthâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Inventory of Homes for Sale
http://www.realtor.org
19, 21, 22, 23
S&P Case Shiller Home Price Indices, Home Prices in the Short Term
http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/articles/en/us/?articleType=PDF&assetID=124534 6789036
24
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
http://www.realtor.org
25, 26
U.S. Properties with Foreclosure Filings, Percentage of Foreclosures by Price Point
http://www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report/2012-year-end-foreclosuremarket-report-7547
27
Two Graphs
PAID SERVICE http://www.economy.com/dismal/pro/article.asp?cid=236942
28
Capital Economics
http://www.dsnews.com/articles/home-price-expectations-vastly-different-for-northeast-vswest-2013-01-31
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Resources Slide
Slide Title
Link
29
Average Days to Foreclosure â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 4Q 2012
http://www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report/2012-year-end-foreclosure-marketreport-7547
30
Building Trust is Most Important
http://media.ford.com/images/10031/fordtrendbook2013.pdf
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM