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Improving resilience in the rail industry Jonathan Edwards, Transportation Market Leader at GHD analyses the consequences the current strikes will have on the rail sector
T
he current rail strikes are a warning for a potential long season of disruption across a post pandemic rail industry that was not Covid resilient, has not yet fully recovered from the pandemic and one that is less prepared for disruption in the future. The recently released GHD disruption index flagged multiple risks for future disruption, including changing consumer demands and ageing infrastructure, across rail. We know these strikes will have huge and immediate ramifications for the movement of people and goods and fear they will cause long-lasting impact that could set the sector back for many years. Whilst not engaging in the merits for strike action, its impact is clear and action on the scale we are seeing could not come at a worse time for rail – just as people are returning to the network, new travel patterns are beginning to be understood (a key step in planning for the future of rail) and when passengers numbers and diversification of revenue are sorely needed. Looking beyond the obvious disruption to travel for passengers for a moment, this is also an alarm for the movement and supply of goods across the UK. Strikes of these kind can impact the movement of freight, fuel, consumer goods and food will be impacted. This is likely to only worsen the very real cost of living crisis facing the country right now and undermine steps towards the long-term decarbonisation objectives of transport. Rail is one of the most carbon efficient methods of transportation in both the movement of people and goods. Diesel trains produce 76 per cent less carbon emissions per freight tonne mile compared to road and each freight train is able to remove 76 HGVs off the UK roads according to the Rail Delivery Group (RDG). Rail currently removes nearly 6.5 million lorries per year from UK roads, and has the potential to remove much more, and, with an ongoing HGV crisis, switching freight to the road is not a short-term option nor one that should be considered for the long-term.
But if the movement of goods by rail cannot be relied upon then what other choice do businesses have and where are they likely to invest in the future? The Royal Mail and others have set plans to transport more goods by rail, but these plans and similar in the future will be hampered by these and potential further strikes. Passenger numbers long-term will also be severely impacted. We know that travel habits have changed and are likely to remain changed forever but will passengers return to a rail network that has just seen the largest fare rise in nine years and is expected, based on current inflation, to be even higher next year, have experienced ‘the biggest strike in modern history’? Recent efforts to encourage passengers back to using rail, including the recent summer sale of tickets, new carnet style flexible travel and the proposed roll out of changes under GBR and the DfT, are also bought into question. We know that habits stick and travel habits are no different. Passengers have again been forced to return to their cars for travel and adopt more remote and home working. As a consequence we predict it will only lessen the appetite for public transport in the short and potentially long term, no matter the initiative. This will only slow down our ability to resolve mobility issues and achieve decarbonisation goals as a country. Finally, the business case for investing in the rail industry, a recently heavily subsidised industry, propped up during the pandemic and about to undergo transformative change, will be questioned. The funding and plans for essential immediate and long-term development will all be put on hold if we’re not able to now understand passenger numbers and forecast passenger revenue as a result of more disruption. Union representatives have recently said ‘the public does not want a dehumanised,
AI-controlled, dystopian network’. At GHD we know passengers want improved passenger experience and a rail network that can be relied upon. They want value for money and more sustainable choices in their mode of travel. Post pandemic, rail needs to recover, build improved resilience and fulfill its role of connecting the country. These recent strikes shake the rail industry and with little resilience and further disruption a possibility the needs of passengers and the immediate and long-term objectives of the industry and transport more broadly are in serious jeopardy. Jonathan Edwards is Transportation Market LeaderEMEA at GHD GHD have expertise across the rail industry with capabilities and skills to help government, rail operators and private organisations – GHD have experience in freight and logistics planning, rail analysis, timetabling, revenue forecasting and business case development, alongside deep technical and advisory experience on rail projects. This piece was written in June 2022 during the national rail strikes. Rail Professional
